Are future humans really our problem?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.ค. 2023
- Is our short-term thinking risking the future prosperity and possibly even survival of our descendants? Many scientists say very emphatically yes! Now a new paper explores how we are breaking boundaries and setting up unstoppable feedback loops for future generations to deal with.
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Research links
Main paper by Johan Rockström et al
www.nature.com/articles/s4158...
Johan Rockström : Planetary Boundaries talk at Future Forums 2023
• Johan Rockström | Plan...
Future of the Human Climate Niche - Xu et al
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas...
Energy Monitor article
www.energymonitor.ai/policy/j...
International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report May 2023
Check out other TH-cam Climate Communicators
zentouro: / zentouro
Climate Adam: / climateadam
Kurtis Baute: / scopeofscience
Levi Hildebrand: / the100lh
Simon Clark: / simonoxfphys
Sarah Karvner: / @sarahkarver
Rollie Williams / ClimateTown: / @climatetown
Jack Harries: / jacksgap
Beckisphere: / @beckisphere
Our Changing Climate : / @ourchangingclimate
Engineering With Rosie / engineeringwithrosie
Ella Gilbert / drgilbz
Planet Proof / @planetproofofficial
Our Eden / @oureden
As a man in my late 60s, I was raised at a time when consumerism was in its infancy, and we never saw the appalling waste we see today. My post-war parents brought me up with a sense of thrift, of not using more than I thought was my right to (had I been born in the 80s or 90s, I may well have been as profligate as everyone else - so I'm not claiming to be a paragon). That said Dave, your comment about the over 50s having a come-what-may attitude to the future is a very fair call, as of course we of that age group will all be worm food by the time the balloon goes up. It's fair to say though that most oldies do still have a vested interest in the planet's future, due to the genes they share with their progeny - no one wants to see their grandchildren suffer as a result of our carelessness. Luckily for me, a man without progeny, I don't suffer such anxieties; though I'm still dismayed at what we're doing to this planet. And I'd rather leave it as I found it - a little greener, a little cleaner and a little safer. Thanks for all your great videos - they're fab!
Same age. Same attitude. Well said.
A good note. I am 73 but feel consumed by fear for the little children I know, and enraged at the total lack of effective action undertaken anywhere save for France, where 86% of our energy comes from nuclear. I feel proud to live in such an enlightened country, albeit with the troubles so many places suffer from in the dying ‘West’
The problem are people wo don't give a fuck or say i don't have kids so i don't care.
When I was young the world's population was 2.5 billion (now over eight billion).
Already a few too many back then but that is the main difference to today!
On that front we can still make amends if the third world plays their part together with 'us' but alas..
Numbers, it's a matter of human numbers times what is possible - for better or for worse!
Bit younger, 46,... Same attitude still...
I'm 57. And I live in India in the 'hashed' region that will experience extreme stress. This year, while I've barely been able to retain my own sanity watching the climate chaos unfold on social media in real time, we are experiencing the most amazing monsoon. No heavy downpours, just a a few rainy hours in the day, it's cool, it's green, it's mild and it's just beautiful weather right now. Especially when the weather is this great, it's hard to focus on troubles ahead. City folks are doing treks and outings and picnics and drives and really enjoying NATURE. And they have not the slightest clue, nor do they want to know, anything about the monster that has been stirred and is waking up. I've been vegan and minimalist since I twigged onto how bad this could get about 8 years ago. By the time I got to this point, I hade to wade through a effing shit load of mis and dis information spread by deniers and eco-optimists. It took me a while to educate myself on various aspects such as energy balance, planetary boundaries, radiative forcing, etc etc...All of this education has happened mostly through carefully curated reading lists (books and articles) and TH-cam channels such as this one.
Now that I have all this information, it's easy and clear to see that we have in fact leapt off the proverbial cliff already, and unlike Wiley E. Coyote, we do not have an about turn option. We are blithely unafraid because we are still in free fall and we are loving this sensation of 'weightlessness', and because we haven't looked down to see the carcasses of previous boom-bust civilisations.
The only action open to me is to tread even more gently on the planet. Reduce consumption to the barest minimum. Find simpler options or hacks or do without. Don't buy clothes. Don't invest in anything that cannot be repaired or reused. Grow some food. (Tough on a 5th floor terrace balcony, but I grow some herbs and a few select veggies- It's not the harvest, it's the habit that's important)
However, the most important thing that I can do, totally in my power, is be kind and generous to whoever is in need or is struggling. No matter which side of understanding this predicament they are on, be kind. Especially to those that work way to hard for way to little compensation, which is too many people in my country. But it is very hard to be even civil to such social acquaintances who are engaged in civil construction or manufacturing or finance or any kind chasing after bull shit earth destroying personal or corporate goals, especially when they are aware of the crisis, but walk away from even a decent conversation about it. Which again is a lot of people. Too many.
I have taken to finding community in youtube comments sections...
So thank you for what you do. It has very much been part of who I have turned out to be, and while that is always a work in progress, I'm glad I'm here, on this side, rather than on the side of denial or false expectations... We need more realists. And I am learning the tricky balance between giving up hope and yet, not spiralling hopelessly into fear fuelled chaos and nihilism.
If things are as bad as you think, the questions that come to my mind are how much pain can we mitigate, how much life can we save, will humanity survive, and if so what kind of society will emerge afterwards. It seems we're pushing Earth's systems beyond the state where they can compensate our actions and provide a healthy and stable environment for us, but who knows, maybe Earth still has a hidden card, maybe some unexpected huge and rapid carbon sink appears out of the blue and saves the day. I wouldn't bet on that but who knows.
Or maybe we can reduce emissions and find the way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere in time to save a lot of people and wildlife. In any case, mitigation and adaptation is the way to go. Keep working hard!
@@miguel5785 I'd sooner bet on aliens who may or may not be future versions of us, given that time is not linear, stepping in and saving us from our avarice and our hubris. Of course we must still always be aware and conscious of our actions and prioritise the well being and care of all life around us no matter whether doomsday comes tomorrow or a decade or century hence. Perhaps we need to relearn our world from a life centric perspective, rather than a human centric one. Essentially that's what has led to our massive, almost God like tech boom and that's what is taking us over the edge.
I visited India in Dec of 2019. My experience and your words touched me. My own investigations have led me to understand that we have tipped. I can not know if humans will survive, I do understand life will be extremely volatile and extremely hard. I agree with you; simplify, reduce my footprint and be kind. How I choose to be in the world and in relationship with others is vitally important now.
We’re dealing with unreal forest fires 🔥 in Canada right now...we’re packed and waiting for Evacuation alerts in this area.
What makes the change difficult is how closely tied our current system is to the global economy. Big businesses are making obscene amounts of money and don't want to change. Small and medium businesses either struggle or do okay. So they can't afford to change. And individually, most of us agree that something needs to be done. But in a way that allows us to maintain, more or less, the same lifestyle.
Small businesses were directly targeted by lockdown measures. Supermarkets stayed open whilst small shops that didn’t sell food mostly went out of business. The biggest issue with this planet is the WEF.
The reality is, to change the economy means 100s of millions will starve.
Which means to stop the claimed human climate change we must cause the same level of death as the claimed climate change would cause.
Catch 22.
That said, if we're as close to the edge as claimed, we should just live it up. Because the next major volcano will push us well over the "edge"
That's the beauty of mostly unregulated capitalism, where government can't just shut down those who refuse to listen.
Not that there aren't any drawbacks, but genuinely, letting a ton of unorganized people pursuing self gain to monopolize most industries isn't a "good idea"
And this is why governments must step in and force companies to do what is not profitable.
@@TheFinalChapters Stakeholder capitalism. That will never happen
Brilliant. Thank you very much. A few years ago I read an article that states the best place to survive the climate crisis was where I live. Feeling good about that the thought came to me that maybe there would be migration to my area of US. Loandbehold we've seen an uptick of west coasters moving to the area to get away from the fires, heatwaves, air pollution etc. Now, I live in the country. We touch wildlife typically not seen in the suburbs or in the cities. There are lots of farms here. The last thing I would expect is having serious unhealthy air warnings in my area, but one happened a few years ago from fires in Canada. I thought it was a one time thing. Then we had the better part of a month last year with unhealthy air from fires in Canada. This year the entire summer has been broken up by a day here, a week there, days that look cloudy but are actually skies filled with smoke, and lots and lots of air quality health warnings. We had a month long drought that left my lawn yellow. When if finally rained the yellow grass gave way to patches of dirt. It will take time for the remaining grass to put out risers to cover these spots. What it means is that it got dry enough and hot enough to kill off the grass down to its roots. What I'm saying is that the article was wrong. There is no place safe from global climate change. We need to move to being activists, yes to save our children and generations to come, but we are in the thick of climate change. We all have to be activists now,. For our own survival.
I must admit that as a 72 year old I do look at young children and feel some guilt about the world we are leaving them. Like a lot of people my age (I hope) I try my best to keep my impact on this planet to a minimum but know it will take a lot more than that to sort this out.
The current crop of young people are far more entitled and pampered than you likely were then. Let's see if they are willing to make any real sacrifices. I doubt it. Meanwhile, don't assume any guilt for having helped make the present world a better place than in the past.
@@joemccarthy7120 "Let's see if they are willing to make any real sacrifices" what other choice do we have but to dig ourself out of the giant pile of s**t your generation left us with because you were not willing to make any 'real sacrifices'? To let our world fall apart because of greed and apathy and still blame those after you is pathetic.
@@joemccarthy7120 "Meanwhile, don't assume any guilt for having helped make the present world a better place than in the past." Better in which ways?
@@blahdelablah Practically any measure of quality of life you can think of. Further, practically none of the claimed climate emergency forecasts/symptoms have been realized. Life is a lot better for more people than ever before and added CO2 has made the planet a lot more productive.
But at what cost...
The problem is that corporations and goverments are not human beings though, they are organisations of large collections of human beings with their own emergent properties and behaviours. Game theory suggests that if nothing else but everybody just plays to avoid loss while maximalise gains, we can collectively all walk towards our doom, while we just genuinly tried to improve our own situation.
Tragedy of the commons.
@@MrGabox345 Not too late to explore the bottoms of the oceans. See even just the thumbnail for the recent video here on whether it's wise to mine there.
The biggest problem is that a profit is the wealth you have after all costs have been subtracted. Now however, a profit is defined as making more than you did last year. This philosophy is unsustainable and represents 99.9% of the current world problems. (everything from lack of sleep, depression and of course, world pollution which includes greenhouse gasses but also toxins that are harming human health)
What??? LOL.
Is this Kamala Harris???
Then we need to dismantle the idea that maximizing gains is a noble pursuit
We knew about this back in 1972 with the Club of Rome study Limits to Growth. The past 50 years and the regular oil crises just illustrate our ongoing contempt for limits.
Right, all the warnings were ignored. We live in a world when future projections don't fit with maximizing profit are too inconvenient, so they are ignored.
I was born in 1948. During my elementary and high-school years, through the mid-1960's, I was exposed continuously to concepts of civilizational collapse in televised and print media (popular magazines) and movies, mostly in connection with a rapidly expanding population, and shadowed by the looming threat of nuclear annihilation, but also referring directly to the reality of shifting climate and global warming (attributed to the eradication of forests) and uncontrollable technological development--already evidenced in the ubiquity of monstrous motor vehicles dominating all social and economic activity. I also had teachers as early as the middle grades who raised such issues, usually in reference to historical civilizational collapses. By 1970 I had become a radicalized environmental activist, clearly aware that environmental concerns were antithetical to the functioning of capitalism, and was attentive (probably high on LSD) when the space-aliens announced that we had ten years--until 1980--to turn things around before the cascading momentum of the environmental crisis became unstoppable. So what happened? I guess everyone thought ten years was plenty of time--wars were more important. Some did what they could. Most organizational efforts were undermined by personal betrayals of individuals against each other--people lacked the integrity of character necessary to create a sustainable community of resistance and alternative action. Has anything changed since then? The issues raised in this video and the works it references have already been settled--all tipping-points have been passed, all limits have been breached, and scientific measurements cannot begin to grasp the rapidly advancing state of civilizational and environmental collapse. How can we confront the prospects of future humans if there is no conceivable future, no path that leads to survival, and no organizational substrate of authentic community to support honest conversation, let alone constructive action?
Try to dream a better future. Read the works of John Perkins "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" and his work on the Amazonian Indiginous tribes that still live in a sustainable relationship with their environment. Maybe the Hippies were right.
I was talking at work with colleagues who fly abroad each year. Two of them who fly abroad 3 - 4 times a year. When I mentioned it might be better to not fly so much the answer was f**k the climate I want my holiday.
I think it’s the same mind set I see every day as I drive though roadworks. As you approach the roadworks there are signs to slow you down from 70 to 60-50-40, giving you plenty of warning. What I see every day is 90% of drivers continue at 70 until they come to a dead stop then complain about the traffic jam.
Ever think that plane is flying anyway, whether your friends are in board or not?
Besides, aviation fuel will soon be made using atmospheric CO2, did you know that?
Blad Dave just wants you miserable. I want you happy, and look to help make a better world.
@@scottslotterbeck3796 you’re a bad troll. You don’t suggest more, better energy production such as nuclear. You advocate for less humans and imply climate change is a farce in multiple other comments
@@scottslotterbeck3796 If less people buy tickets, they'll fly fewer planes. Do you get it or do I need to explain it more clearly?
@@xway2 They were still flying empty in April 2020 just to keep a time slot at the airports due to some stupid policy that couldn't be put on hold during the pandemic.
@@IvyANguyen Nobody wants that, not least the airlines who of course lose a lot of money that way. But yes, as always we need policy changes as well.
I'm happy that I was directed to your channel. Thank you for your even, informative and lightly humorous postings. I'm in my mid-sixties. I have no offspring and frankly I'm happy for that. We've botched things up so badly for the future. It will take a miracle or a catastrophe to turn this mess around and I'm not hopeful. We can take each day as it shows up and do the best we can with it. Take care, be safe.
This video is a great argument against abortion.
What mess, the main problem we have is Media that exaggerate and overstate even the most minor of events.
Agreed mate. I’m in my mid 40’s and dont have kids. Nor am i likely to have any either. Children born today will have to face things that our ancestors couldn’t imagine.
please help with the revolution.
Some folks think driving a vehicle without a catalytic converter is okay. Is that to say that converter does lesson exhaust emissions greatly ?
I think mine does ok. I just recently used the Motorkote oil engine additive to my V6 ( review Project Farm) and its seems to be generating better fuel economy. I'd still rather be driving an EV that is charged from wind, solar or hydroelectric !
Thank you so much for your ongoing efforts to inform us common folks in an understandable manner on the pressing issues that you are covering. Keep on going!
I'm in my early 30s with a 9 month old son, I will be putting my vote, my money and my time into this problem, and no amount of doom and gloom will stop me.
Love the channel, amazing quality videos.
.. GDP per Capita even with climate change will keep rising 2% per person, our kids will be 40% richer than us. They will have future tech too. A little higher temp will NOT be a big problem for them. Our 1930s grandparents left junkpiles in places and our tech in 1990s easily can detect leaks from junk piles and we can install new plastic walls around junkpiles. Future people can easily build seawalls, irrigation, and air conditioning.... So don't worry about future gneration handling temp rise... So let India and China pollute all they want, future people will have magic air conditioning and cheap seawalls..
Lots of good intentions. Depending where you live you need to find a save place for your family first. If everyone on the planet would do everything possible right now it will not stop rapid changes. So first things first.
Creating more resource demand, good job.
Congratulations. You have created a life that will be defined by suffering.
@@nunyabusiness9013 .. world now even with climate change is not mostly suffering, life till 1700 usually you were a broke farmer who nobles stole from and no TH-cam or books just the Bible to reread. Modern world is HEAVEN so stop complaining...
The electrican story is relatively tame compared to the environmental problem. The electrican may have been reckles, but what he did only created the small chance to end like it did - while environmental recklessness is guaranteed to kill a lot of people. It already does.
I agree.. in my view, climate change is better described as the ultimate 'tragedy of the commons' problem for mankind.
yeah, the electrical codes in the UK are about a generation behind north America and Japan, but that has more to do with the shortcomings of their grid and generating facilities, which are based on earlier technologies that are inherently unsafe.
@@captain34ca The Brits use a much higher voltage, and I'm really wondering about the kind of wire.... because in the US house wiring uses something called Romex which is really really hard to get a screw into at all. It's super tough. And besides, wouldn't kitchen wiring be inside conduit also?
We have to place the blame where it should lie - the overcrowded countries that are exporting their people in mass to the first world. We shouldn't be trying to make our pleasant places unpleasant.
Not really the point, if you or someone you love is the one killed.
Your video was excellent as usual. I’m of an older generation, but back in the late 80’s it did seem we were headed towards a climate crisis. And I was working at the wrong end of things as a fossil fuel explorationist. The excuse at the time was we needed a transitional period and still had to power our industries.
On one of my last projects I saw seismic evidence of de-gas features that tied perfectly to the Paleocene Eocene boundary, a time of a rapid thermal maximum. These were in a deep water tropical environment and represented methane escape from methane hydrates. Kind of what is currently occurring in the Arctic regions in Siberia. Not a good sign.
Currently I’m trying to improve the soil quality in my corner of the desert. I’m composting organic matter with composting worms that love shredded oily pizza boxes and all my vegetable waste. They particularly like paper towels. And my veggie patch loves their compost. I harvest the tumbling weeds that blow by to add to the soil and help decompose them by adding ammonia (I pee on them). It’s helped improve maybe a quarter to half an acre so far. Small maybe, but it beats my previous job.
Thanks for your insightful videos.
I love the detail about peeing on tumbleweeds. Fantastic mental image. Good on you, but please don't think DIY is enough - this is a social problem!
Bald Dave is grumpy and nonsensical.
Let's but him a toupee. Maybe that will cheer him up
the best thing you can do if you have money is to reduce the potential population of the future is to reduce the population in high-population countries like Pakistan, the Bihar region of India, Nigeria, and the North African region as a whole by giving jobs to women in these areas thereby reducing time spent in home which ultimately reduces the population, following the model used in Bangladesh
i think Dave was encouraging us to take politcal action... do you do that work?
Plant as many nitrogen fixing plants (pea family) as possible to help build up the soil. Cat's claw acacia Senegalia gregii is a great one as well as various lupine species
My level of optimism/pessimism on whether we will solve the climate (and other environmental) problem is always changing, but it’s great to have your videos every week to make me reflect on the problems and solutions.
I am very optimistic that we have no idea or chance to fix or help it at all.
My view is that increasingly I see a consumer civilisation that ‘knows the price of everything and the value of nothing’. I think this video is perhaps the most important of all your excellent offerings. Thank you.
Thanks Dave. Great video. I'm a bit of a climate geek myself - not only reading all of the major academic reports, but digging into the supporting data too (I know, sad eh?). I'm afraid I'm one of those 'doomers' who have concluded that we are already past the point of no return and, unfortunately, I've never been terribly good at cognitive dissonance, in that I seem to have an innate need to confront truths as opposed to burying them conveniently within the deepest recesses of my consciousness and living life as if everything was just fine and dandy.
To be clear, my conclusion is that it's not the climate impacts that will hit us first, it's the economic crash that will occur when it becomes evident that the massive, and increasing, global debt (currently around 300 trillion dollars) is unlikely ever to be repaid given the limits to growth imposed by our planetary boundaries, and dwindling fuel and mineral resources. This debt is leveraged against the notion of future growth and that notion will soon collapse, and with it, the global economy.
So here I am, in SW France on my 1-acre smallholding having retired at 55 (once you've concluded that the end is very much nigh, then why the hell not!) and am aiming to be self-sufficient in energy, food and water within the next 3 years. I've no idea whether this will give me any advantage whatsoever over those who aren't minded to prepare for what is to come, but it serves to give me a focus. Because let's face it, there's a direct relationship between how informed one is about the implications of our changing climate and the extent of one's despair and pessimism. And I'm very well informed indeed.
We are far past the point of no return. The existing carbon in the atmosphere will be there for centuries, and there is no identifiable trend anywhere which indicates the additions to that carbon will decrease. In the U.S., there seems to be very little concern, as Americans continue to buy huge trucks and SUVs so they can go to the store or post office. This is a deeply rooted cultural problem , as is the millions of Americans who don't believe a problem even exists. They have poor educations, and fill their heads with climate denialism from Fox news.
Yes and l am a fellow Doomer who left the US to go higher in an agricultural community and this year while my former city is sweltering l am at about 75 F. Not that this will put off the inevitable which I personally think is less than 5 years now.
12:48-13:22
Debt can be written off, resources redistributed, jobs reassigned. You give very little credit to human's ability to organize. I can imagine the end of capitalism much more easily than the end of the state.
@@miguel5785
There is no better system than capitalism. Just eleminate monopolies.
Barter is capitalism.
Hit it right on the nose with that first anecdote, Dave. Only difference with the climate crisis is how long the pot boils before we croak.
I agree with your sentiment at the end too. As much as we have seen with Gen Z swaying the polls in the US 2022 midterm elections, and the other instances of consumers choosing to boycott Disney or Bud Light or whichever corporation, we the people still have a level of control over what values and practices show up in society and the economy at large.
Every climate crisis advocate comes with a climate crisis denier, however, so we're going to need all the levers we can get our hands on to shift the rate of adoption of sustainability more and more: government, social behavior, downright hard conversations, and voting with our dollars.
Don't let up on your message, Dave. You voicing it contributes to the greatest human transition ever to take place on this planet. Cheers
Well, so far, we have seen that the proposed solutions to the alleged problem are no solutions at all. Wind, solar, EV's etc have by now been proven to be failures at their stated purpose. So, what are you personally willing to sacrifice in order to set a good example and help save the world beyond voting for virtue signaling politicians and attending "climate' rallies?
Go and look up 1 million years of climate change taken from core samples from the sea bed, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
You will be surprised on how warmer it has been in the interglacial periods than what it is now.
I think we need to be more concerned with polluting the oceans where we get most of our oxygen.
We will be suffocating well before we roast if we destroy that part of our world.
Oh you want to convert deniers into believers? Start with fixing those 1000000 models that run too hot. And with making climate predictions that actually fulfil. And don't forget to flush your personal toilet once every two days.
Bald Dave is getting rich on lies.
What we really need is societies consolidated into one or a few massive governments, each with a digital currency with strict limits on what someone can purchase and controls on what and how much people consume, with strict limits on carbon emissions, sensor implants in the anus and neck to measure each fart and each breath.
I'm 57.
Despite the experts warnings that things are going to become very serious in 50 years time, I think all that is going to happen 'long' before then.
So, whether we're in our 40's, 50's, 60's and 70's - I think we're all going to suffer from our continued lack of action now.
After all, it's quite possible that there are more feedback loops we're still not aware of yet.
Can't imagine what it's going to be like when all the trillions of sea creatures start dying off when the oceans become too warm for those animals that can't escape it. We have seen some of that recently - if you caught the disturbing images of seals and dolphins dying from toxic algal blooms off the west coast of America.
Just imagine all those extra gases as all those bodies start to rot - and we have seen other die-offs before. Off the coast of Africa (Namibia) last year, and that area of shellfish in North America where millions cooked to death. Those gases released by all that decomposition has to go somewhere - the atmosphere.
How many warnings do we need before we 'each' of us act?
Why is it the world acted with uniformity back in the 20th century when we needed to get rid of CFC's?
What has happened to society that so many people have to act like uneducated morons and keep denying climate change when the evidence is all around them in the form of heatwaves, floods, food crop failures, droughts?
I live next door to a denier. He's exhausting to talk to. He just shuts his ears as his mouth keeps flapping about it being weather that's all. We just avoid him now. Just a quick wave as we go past.
He's now increasing his 'defiance' against the evidence for climate change by flying abroad several times a year (he never used to do that before).
So we cannot 'appeal' to people's good nature to do the right thing and commit to a less destructive lifestyle. Some people just don't have a good nature to appeal to. Therefore, our governments have to tax them out of their destructive habits or make those products unavailable.
I was hoping the new food labelling system seen on this channel ages ago would be introduced here in the UK.
As usual, no sign of it.
And that's the trouble isn't it?
Our governments are so afraid of being voted out through unpopular pro-environment actions that they don't even begin to try and enforce greener changes. People might be wary of my use of the word 'enforce,' but if we and all the rest of the animals and plants we haven't put into extinction are to survive another century, we 'will' have to enforce greener laws and tax products on the strength of their carbon emissions.
It's my belief that if we continue 'talking' and 'writing' and letting our governments continue 'discussing' before they finally pass weak, insubstantial laws that can be easily loop-holed, ignored, or are so passive in the first place they won't make sufficient difference - those of us in our 60's and less will 'all' be included in the very difficult times ahead.
I think that the 50 years countdown is a very conservative one and far from the truth of the matter. It wouldn't surprise me if climate experts start telling us newer, lower dates year on year.
So ask yourself - if you do make it to the age of 75 or 80, do you want to have to 'fight' for the food you want to buy at that age?
Do you want to try and throw out a gang of desperate migrants picking apples and vegetables out of your gardens?
Do you want refugee camps set up in your local parks? Along roadsides? Riverbanks? In your street?
Do you want refugees burgling shops and mugging local residents because they can't get any more handouts from an already financially stressed government?
Oh, and before people start calling me out for even suggesting that only people from the Middle East and Africa are likely to do that sort of thing, I'm saying that among them will be droves of Indians, Pakistanis, Italians, Spanish, Greeks, Turks and even Southern French who have been driven further north and west by desperation to escape killer heatwaves.
Identity politics happened. Denying climate change is his identity. By attacking his ideas, you're trying to erase who he is from existence. This is why they get defensive. It has nothing to do with rationale of your argument.
"How many warnings do we need before we 'each' of us act?"
And what exactly are we to do, sir? I could, right now, go live in a mud hut. I still have to go to work, meaning I have to drive. I still have to eat, and I still have to keep personal hygiene.
An EV is not the answer. If you look at Engineering Explained's channel, it take about 80k miles of driving an EV to start offsetting the carbon released in its creation, and by then it needs a new battery.
I have a V8 Mustang, and an Turboed STI, and I bet I have done more for the environment than you have: I decided to have zero kids. I got the snippity, and I never got married. At 44, I am happy with that choice. Also I found a job I can work from home, so I have drastically reduced my fuel spending. What have you done?
@@apreviousseagle836 If you're asking for real, you could write a letter once a year to your senator demanding more action towards climate change. Would take about 20 minutes of your time. I know it seems futile, but it really isn't, especially if you recruit at least 1 more person to do the same
@@apreviousseagle836 Why does that need to be your response? Who cares what one individual has done for it when its still not working while corporations ignore and laugh at any sort of suggestion to this crisis.
@@Weathernerdguy "corporations ignore and laugh at any sort of suggestion to this crisis."
Then you are attacking the wrong enemy. Right now governments are basically attacking the middle class, particularly on these fronts:
1. We drive too much. We should be commuting in bicycles.
2. Our houses are too big. Why does a family of 4 needs 4 rooms and 4 bathrooms? 2 rooms and a bathroom should be good enough, in a rented apartment's.
3. Our food consumption is too heavy, especially meat. We should be eating bugs instead.
How does that deal with the real problem? I remember reading stats that just ONE flight of a 747 from the US to Europe, is like driving your Toyota Corolla for 20 years. Yet they want people to stop driving.
Let's not even talk about the military complex. How much fuel do you think those Abrams tanks use? or the F22's?
This is the first video of yours I've watched. You've won me as a subscriber on the strength of this one alone. Thank you.
I have personally made all the changes in my life style to reduce my impact, but persuading others that there is even a problem is something else.
did u do banking n pension? it's often not known about, otherwise, kudos for changes u have made. Article i read said the narrative needs to be more akin to 'a blanket of pollution smothering and heating the planet' A focus on a pollution-free world where like our ancestors we could swim in clean rivers again, pick berries from the roadside without getting sick, sharply reduced cancer, alzeimers etc as pollution a factor in all chronic conditions. The transition is worth doing just for that. iv had no comeback arguments really. This channel n rethinkX have been 95% of info iv needed
That part is really a struggle. I tried to work on ways for people to share solutions to a particular part of the problem, and despite serious efforts to promote it nobody volunteered their time.
Then don't. Maybe you're wrong.
@@kimwarburton8490the solution is fewer people; free and ubiquitous birth control, especially; n Africa and Southeast Asia.
@@scottslotterbeck3796 The risk of being wrong is zero vrs the risk of being right. At worst, we end up with cleaner non-polluted air, less deaths from air pollution, clean rivers to swim in etc, less asthma, cancer etc.
i dont like living in a polluted world where cancer rates have rocketed, where children die from asthma attacks, where picking n eating roadside nuts and berries make you sick due to the toxic levels of pollution youd be ingesting.
Awesome work, I’m glad the channel grows
I'm 45, and relatively rich in the scheme of the world... Yesterday I had a dilemma. Another Ethical dilemma.
A few years back I had one, a food related one, now I have faced the fact that travel for pleasure is just not viable.
I was planning to holiday in Japan for skiing in February.
But then the weather in the Northern Hemisphere reminded me of my previous dilemma, that the way I ate was causing mass extinction, destruction of habitat and enormous emissions. Let alone the absolute cruelty that is the modern animal ag industrial complex.
On reading several posts, and then investigating further the news and statistics on the current state of the Northern Hemisphere heat waves.
It became apparent that another flying holiday was just not on the table! So I am taking a pledge. I will not fly for a holiday for at least 7 more years.
Last year I flew to Perth and France for a holiday (from the UK)
So as per this Take the Jump Pledge site, which I have signed. I will not fly for leisure for another 7 years.
Instead catching the train or PT to a local attraction, or in my case mountain.
I cannot live with the guilt of not doing everything in my power to ensure we reduce our emissions as a people, my part in that is my pledge.
So now
Personal Pledges
- Eat plant based to reduce emissions
- Drive an EV for work, walk or PT for leisure
- Shop in bulk stores, reducing plastic
- Always carrying a reusable cup and bottle
- Fly for holidays once every 8 years (Australia is always long haul)
- Live in low energy home
- Reduce energy usage at home as much as possible
Work Pledges
- Invest in reducing energy consumption
- Invest in renewable energy generation
- Always offset flights with SAF purchase or real! Carbon Credits
I have also published this on my website, and other socials
craiglambie.com/climatepledge
The single biggest thing you can do to help is to not have kids.
@@DistinctiveBlend so long as you are happy with immigration too. As an aging population needs young people to support it, so do you support freedom of movement of all people?
@@cclambie Skilled migrants are needed and welcomed in a lot of countries, so this seems like an odd objection/rebuttal.
It's also seems strange to conflate that with 'freedom of movement of all people'.
@@DistinctiveBlend actually, skilled workers makes for a very unequal world. Only allowing people that have already gotten the skills to be stolen from their home countries that supported them. So for true equality and diversity, we need freedom of movement of all people. Maybe age can be a discrimination point, like under 50s only.
@@cclambie The world has always been unequal, like yourself saying how you're rich.. so I don't see how that's a valid criticism either. Plus this was about emissions, not immigration.
I woulf like to an highlight on the ozone layer. It was damaged by gas composition and had been used in coolant for example fridges and freezers. Now it had been 20 to 30 years that it had been out of use and in part banned.
The ozone layer is now getting more stable and will enable to continue to protect us.
Edit: Local low ground ozone is not as good, you should be careful when the weather service warns about it.
In addition apply sunprotection if you are outside matched to your skin type.
I am 15 and my generation will have to inherit all these issues, we will be the ones to suffer the harsh consequences of climate change and that does makes me a bit scared for my future. The climate is already noticeably getting hotter and more unstable here where I live. Just in the last month or so we had three cyclones here, something that just a few years ago happened like once a year or once every few years, things are already changing rapidly and I honestly have no idea how mine and future generations will be able to deal with this ever-growing catastrophe left to us by our parents and grandparents.
As a 56 year old, I am so sorry. I hope scared leads to angry. I'm angry. Anger motivates action, fear motivates immobility
i concur with the survival skills but would add that if you goto 'prepper channels', take the lessons, ignore the fear-mongering they do to gain views, and take ACTION. Skills i would add -flint-knapping, archery, bush hygiene inc toilets, strategy, greyman, self-defense, herbalism, wild food, bushcraft, pottery, making/repairing clothes and shoes, canning and drying of food esp pemmican, animal care including esp horse related skills such as shoeing and harness making, skinning and tanning, restoring soils and food cultivation, seed storage. People pre industrial revolution were generalists.
If nothing else, get hard copy books on these skillsets. i would add a survival first aid book its called something like 'what to do when theres no doctor' and also caveman chemistry. There's also a book about restarting civilisation. IT explains how to re-create the building blocks including how to print copies of the book to hand out to others who survive a societal collapse. No man is an island, communities are best, so gather like-minded friends and share out the skillsets, so there is overlap.
skills and knowledge can never be taken from you, everything else can^ and yes, iv been slowly accumulating these skills since i was 7 in the early 90's -i was the first female cub-scout in southwest uk
Perhaps I can offer a little hope via the disruptive X curve. If we look at the world through the lens of technology then a different picture emerges. AI and robotics are disrupting work. Renewables are disrupting fossil fuels. I work with soils and here we see precision fermentation disrupting industrial agriculture. I like to think in terms of phase change, if you take ice and add heat , it takes a long time to turn from a solid to a liquid and that is where we are right now. We are changing phase.
You'll be fine.
Want to make a difference? Push for free and ubiquitous birth control, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia.
You need to worry about uncontrolled immigration and the theft of your future. Even with a tech PhD no immigrant manager is going to hire you. Even with a trade school diploma, the shops are hiring migrants. Mil.Gov.Sci.Edu drone life is all that's left for citizens, low-on-the-totem-pole lackey job with The Borg.
Many thanks for another fine video. Love the work you do keeping us so well informed. 😊
Many thanks!
When I worked in Kuwait sometimes the summer mid day temperatures would rise to 50 degrees C. When this happened the country came to a virtual stop as it was so uncomfortable to work. Imagine that happening in many places simultaneously is a frightening thought.
There is a very plausible argument in a book called "Plows, Plagues and Petroleum" by Ruddiman which posits that the Anthropocene (humans significantly effecting the climate) started 5000 to 7000 years ago. This interglacial is apparently very stable compared to past interglacial periods and he maintains that the activities of man, namely plowing, deforestation and rice growing delayed the onset of the glaciation that would have been expected. The slide had been greatly slowed but not stopped. Along came the black death and the decimation of the population of the Americas by disease and enough green house gasses were absorbed by the recovering forests to just tip us into ice accumulation on the high lands of Baffin Island. Shortly after that, along came the start of the industrial revolution and once more the glaciation was pushed back. Now we have too much of a good thing.
What a horrific story at the start, that poor family. As always, thank you for your thoughtful comments!
Dave, thank you for the interesting videos. I agree with @PaulSinnema that the actions of our ancestors still impact us --- and spending time trying to right those wrongs is taking away our collective energy to right the ship. Hopefully people like you will help others focus on making things better today.
Let's do both :)
@PowerUnicorn, I'm curious to know what wrongs are taking away our collective energy to focus on the here and now?
Thank you for pointing this all out. Downloaded the paper to read through it completely
Im very thankful for your excellent work, turning the mountain of available information into a digestable and tangible form. It's a valuable service you provide!
"Should we be held responsible for our kids and their future?..." - Yes.
"...or is it their problem." Also yes, in perpetuity. There is no world where they won't have to deal with the current gen's cock-ups.
Ive been following Rockstrom for a while now. His work has been really good.
great video, as always. much appreciated!!
Anyone who has deliberately lied about climate change for profit or the politics of profit needs to be held accountable. The Murdoch family being number one.
Re the electric cables: I would always use a cable detector to see where cables run. I won't be changing that in future, even with this new legislation. That's because it is not much comfort to me after I'm dead if the installer was acting illegally.
That's not too day that the legislation is a bad idea: it's too say that installing the drainer workforce testing for hidden cables was unwise, without this new rule
Measure with a micrometer, mark with a chalk, cut with an axe.
Preparation is incredibly important. Even if the cable was laid to spec, you never know what happened then. It only minimises the risk, it can't eliminate it.
I always use a cable detector too. One of my best buys in tools for sure. BE SAFE
A bit of perspective, I was given similar warnings about the climate change in a few decades time when I was in high school(~2005). back then we were warned about rising temperatures and changing weather patterns by 2030 that seemed like a lifetime away. But those things have already come to pass where I live, since 2014 we have "uncommon" weather events a few times a year, things that only happen 3 or 4 times in the whole XX century now are occurring twice a year. I'm talking about heat waves or tropical storms(nowhere near the tropics). So when I see these reports I do worry because scientists tend to be overly conservative in their predictions
I have to laugh when floods in Germany a few years ago were blamed on global warming, with headlines "worst floods in 100 years!"
I guess global warming hasn't gotten worse in 100 years, lol.
The Great Hurricanes were all in the late 19th C. Weather history charts clearly show occurrence and strength both falling in intensity. Magic CO2!
@@scottslotterbeck3796 No single event can be shown to be directly caused by climate change, but climate change is making these extreme events a lot more common (this is exactly what scientists have always said, and it's what we're starting to see now). The reason a record is broken will be a combination of climate change and some other factor (like with El Nino now, we'll see a lot of temperature records these coming few years), and these records will continue to be broken as the world continues to heat up.
@@robertmarmaduke9721Congrats dude, you just lodged the lamest, least-intelligent, least-insightful comment in this whole comments section. GO MAGA!
I believe scientists do indeed possess restraints on their predictions due to social/political pressure. It's still happening today when you hear that "we must act now" mantras to prevent further catastrophe. When in fact, many tipping points are in the rearview mirror, initiating feedback mechanisms that will carry on for perhaps 100s of years, or longer. One way or another, the number of humans on earth will need drop by orders of magnitude. The less we do about that today, the more suffering in the future.
Thank you for yet another very fascinating video. I always learn so much. I have spent years delivering lectures and workshops for the general public and activists, communicating climate science where ever I am able. You are one of the best communicators on this subject I have ever come across. You have such a lovely way of putting information across. Keep up the very important work you are doing! x
"There is never any end. There are always new sounds to imagine; new feelings to get at. And always, there is the need to keep purifying these feelings and sounds so that we can really see what we've discovered in its pure state. So that we can see more and more clearly what we are" John Coltrane.
Somehow this resonates with me when I hear the sounds you make (your voice) and the feelings it conjures up. You are a Diamond in TH-cam’s rough, I thank you for your work and inspiration.
I really love this channel. No BS, just facts. and a healthy dose of optimism
Bald Dave is getting rich driving young people to suicide.
Someone needs to call Bald Dave out for his lies.
Optimism? I think the only optimistic part is that it's going to be decades before the major issues impact us. Judging by the weather chaos this month, it's here and now.
@@lemagnitio72 maybe i should rephrase it to "relative optimism".
I believe that we should do worry about doing something about climate change, even if future humans are not our problem. Here are some reasons why:
Climate change is already having a negative impact on people today. Extreme weather events are becoming more common, and sea levels are rising. This is causing displacement, food shortages, and other problems.
Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. We cannot solve climate change by ignoring it or by hoping that future generations will be able to solve it for us. We need to take action now to reduce our emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.
We have a moral obligation to future generations. We should not leave future generations with a planet that is uninhabitable or unsustainable. We have a responsibility to take care of the planet for future generations, just as previous generations have taken care of it for us.
I believe that it is important to take action on climate change, even if future humans are not our problem. We need to act now to protect the planet and to ensure that future generations have a chance to thrive.
If only your stated alarm were premised on some facts. Then you might have a point.
That and because the frogs and salamanders are gonna be gone so we could have our lonli private vehicles and 12 hour work days , we are killing the entire planet so we can live in white walled prisons ok I wont get started.
I'm sorry but the Climate Change Narrative is All Fake and is about Greed, Power and Control... Under the Corrupt Privately Owned Central Banking System that Controls the Worlds Money/Currencies and Payment Systems Nothing is Going To Change, atleast Not For The Better... They, the Owners of the Central Banks Facilitate for All Fraud, All Wars/Conflicts around the World and All Corporations Bad Habits of Polluting Our Air, Land and Water,,, the Crimes Against Humanity and Mother Earth for the Sake Of Profit,, They Even Suppress Some New Technologies for Power Generation Because It Would Cut into Their Profits and Monopolies... If this Monetary System Was Not So Corrupt I Think We Would Have Found A Much Cleaner and Cheaper Power Source Decades and Decades Ago But They Stifle Innovation to Protect Their Monopolies and Friends...
As For Solar Power and Wind Turbines they are Not as Green as They Want You to Believe and Do as Much Damage to Mother Earth as Oil and Gas.... and the Central Bankers with Their Crony Big Business Friends are Making Huge Profits on All Fronts....
As for Extreme Weather Events they are No More Extreme than in the Past, its just that there are Far More Humans Living and Build on Land they should Not... Also You Might Want to Take a Look at the United Nations own website and Look into What They Are Doing With Their Climate Geoengineering Programs or better still google geoengineeringwatch.org for a more simple and easier to understand explanation of What the UN is Doing.....
Global warming (the correct term) is not an existential threat to humans.
@@joemccarthy7120He's another hysterical dude with no foundation, except hysteria
Hello,
Thank you VERY much for a great video - very informative on a very important issue.
and also, thank you even more for keeping the video free of subtitles and advertises - wish all videos on youtube would be like this!!
Cheers!
Dave you're an absolute gem. Keep 'em coming. Legend!
I don't think the allegory is great, and the electrician isn't responsibly.
Perfectly vertical is unrealistic for the reason listed in the story - things shift over time, so while it might have been vertical to start, it might not be once things have shifted.
The safe thing is to check and recheck, and it's the later installation that was dangerous.
For putting blame in the electrician, and maybe the regulators, the more concerning question is why she wasn't protected by a breaker or fuse
Bathrooms are galvanically isolated.
Thanks again. I'm alarmed at the lack of scientific understanding and disinformation. People don't understand "snowballing effects." Once the ocean won't efficiently accept more heat, we're cooked.
That would indeed cause the surface to move rapidly (over a couple of years) to equilibrium (ECS not ESR) temperature, which is 1.28 degrees above present (assuming humans are still polluting air) but the present 20 Sv Antarctica AABW will hold that back by ~250 years with the present 670 terawatts EEI. So, if Antarctica AABW reduces from its present 20 Sv then THAT is what you refer to as "Once the ocean won't efficiently accept more heat". The AMOC is far more minor for that aspect. In fact, I state categorically that, for example, if AABW reduced from its present 20 Sv to 15 Sv then a person could state "ocean is accepting heat 25% less ocean efficiently than early 21st century". That's how it works. The AABW, study it.
Bald Dave deals in hysteria.
The Earth was supposed to end in 1995, remember?
Great analogy, great work, great message. (Beware submission burn out.)
Considering the massive increases in health & lifespan popping up on the regular, it wouldn't surprise me if many folks in the 40+ range are still here well into the coming decades. Even then, some planning for the future is a good idea!
I was pondering this topic just the other day. In short, this whole enchilada is just another intractable tragedy of the commons, humanities darkest blind spot & greatest weakness. I feel both responsible & helpless. I am extremely relieved relieved to be 70. We’ve modeled how to live sustainably, been to all the protests, written endlessly about these issues. It’s all just shouting at the wind.
It's not tragedy of the commons though. The commons were well tended to before Lords took them from the common people for personal profit. It's a tragedy of runaway private interests, that the common people are legally and physically powerless to address.
Soo you have been usefull idiot for technocrats your whole life?..That takes some dedication
Tragedy is not inherent in the commons. If you manage commons cooperatively it often works out quite well. Kate Raworth‘s „Doughnut Economics“ are a good read on that topic.
@@achenarmyst2156 a transnational solution to managing the world’s commons-air, oceans, water, space-do not appear amenable to Raworth’s proposal.
it still seems that way today. humans have to change in themselves fundamentally but they often don't want to make sacrifices. this is until we all have to make really huge ones... still, what else can one do but to try and do better? giving up does change nothing. maybe doing something neither. but you never know, right? it's all about how you want to look at it. and what feelings you wan't to have in your heart when it does the last beat...
One of your best openings ever Dave!!
A great video on a channel that is always worth watching.
I think you are 100% right and this is the best video you've done so far. That's saying a lot! Im older than you and won't be around but I do try to do what I can, cycle, grow my own food, my electricity comes from hydro-generation and we have no Aircon even though we live in Malaysia. I'm actually glad I don't have kids or I would be bonkers. My heart already hurts for the animals that live outdoors with no fan or Aircon. Maybe I need to make some social media ads showing that.🤔💭
Animals aren't sentients theyre not aware they're in pain. Really. Or mostly true. It's all instinct or patterns. Some patterns are learned but this is not awareness. Do we feel bad a rock gets hot in the sun. "Poor rock!!!!"
Haven't some of these things already started? There is a marine heatwave going on right now, the permafrost is thawing and Greenland, Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting. The boreal forests can't expand either due to the wildfires.
Fantastic video. So important for more people to see.
When I was very young, I received the birds and the bees talk. I had a quick think about the world I was brought into, with what little exposure I had into it, and thought to myself I will never have children. 30 some odd years later and i've never been more certain of any decision i've ever made in my life. This is no world for bringing kids into, no vacancy.
The problem I have with the "Safe and just Earth system boundaries' Hotspots of current ESB transgressions" map is that it doesn't account for all the political f ups. One might think it's relatively safe where one lives while being completely oblivious to the fact that political leaders just gave all the freshwater to big corporations for free without regulations of any kind to attract foreign investment, like what happened in Uruguay, a safe place with huge freshwater reserves but as of right now experiencing THE worst drought in its history with the hottest decade ever within a stone's throw, and all thanks to various political leaders from both wings completely ignoring experts warnings for more than 20 years and focusing on short-term profit to increase public opinion, basically no political leader wants to do the right kind of planning because it's expensive and is going to cost the re-election. So yeah... I hope AI can save us.
Thank you for caring about our future. I’m not a baby, but I am still in my 20’s (just) and I am terrified to bring a child into this world as it stands right now. We are voiceless and branded as disruptive millennials especially if we’re vocal about sustainability and not banded in with endless consumption chaos in the retail world, but we’re actually scared for the future. Thank you
I commend you for your sense of responsibility, unfortunately your kind is being breed out of the human species.🙁
20 is wayyy to young to think of becoming a parent. Enjoy your youth!
I am 21 and I am sterilized. I have many reasons to not wanting to be a mother and a bad future is one of them.
How awful for you.
@@CordeliaWagner You do know that 20 is still OLD for being a first time parent? Globally, 20 is past the age at which many people have their firstborn. My mother had hers at 21, he's almost 30 with no kids because he just can't find a niche he can settle down in. 20 years ago 20 was when you had your SECOND child, even third for many people.
20 isn't too young historically. It's old, especially for women (when considering social norms). 20 is just unfeasible economically for most developed, educated peoples.
You also have to think about timing. Do you want new parents to be 50 when their kid is 20, just leaving college? That's not enough time to build a good career to take care of parents entering their elderly phase. 20s is generally the best developmental and timed period for human children.
The global average for the age of women during first childbirth is 28. In most of the world, 20 is considered fairly young to be a first-time parent. Most of the developed world's women have their first child past 30 years old, get your facts straight 👍@@SideBit
Love ya mate, thank you for keeping us informed. :)
I've had to stop watching many of your excellent videos because they cause me too much stress and sadness 😞. I made it about 3 minutes with this one.
But please keep doing exactly what you are doing - you are brilliant.
After trying to do my own 2 bits to help the planet: sorting my garbage, recycling everything I can, and getting an EV car - it does look like it’s not going to be near enough. Watching “Eating our way to extinction” on TH-cam was definitely an eyeopener. Also watching “The Game Changers” on Netflix reinforces the idea to seriously give a try changing my diet, which may have a lot more impact than anything else I done so far.
Beside hoarding, the only thing left to do is convince my political representative to do the right thing and try to save the planet (wish me luck with that)
.
An EV still pollutes average 3 tons of CO2. I'd you drive any car you're murdering a poor Pakistani or African farmer of heatstroke. Your CO2 goes and hills him. It's like shooting ducks to eat in air, yum, and then not minding if the missed shots fall and murder someone. You're a murderer. Stop claiming to be a nice person. I have no car, I chose to live near work and walk. The truth is harsh.
Well here in Germany at this point in time you can watch what eventually is likely to happen in every case where people will try to act on this crisis. Right now some politicians in the government are trying to come up with more strict rules about energy consumption (or heating technologies specifically). The rules are not perfect, but even if they were (I guess) there would be enough others (political parties, the media which tries to sell headlines, social media influencers) to cry foul, and these combined efforts right now will guarantee, that there will be a different poitical party in charge after the next election with the promise to exactly do nothing.
Every time people are hurt (or told that they will be hurt) economically, you will lose them.
Didn't that party that you're lauding for trying to pass restrictions on heating help to arm and train Nazis, while returning to the use of coal power?
i'd agree, but for brexit. people would respond that sovereignty was more important than prosperity -.- something intangible no one can agree on vrs affording 3 square meals a day. Propaganda is a powerful tool.
The future damage that we cause by our actions now, is absolutely our responsibility - if you set up a time bomb, it doesn't matter if the timer is for 1 minute, or a century, you're still the one who started it ticking.
@@gazrgazr2394 that makes no sense. If you could 'add extra time', you'd just defuse the bomb now to save costs in the long run.
The problem is that prevention is better than cure, but it doesn't stop people from buying snake oil from climate denying quacks, so they can keep using crude oil, without acknowledging their responsibility.
Great video, Dave. Thank you, and good job. I can see a lot of research to achieve this video.
Bald Dave is getting rich on hysteria.
Shame on him!
@@scottslotterbeck3796 Yep, if you look to rarely burnt Canadian forest reaching burning records this year, 2nd consecutive year of heat waves in Europe, and going to the US... well probably you need to see hundreds of people die caused by unstable weather before anything convinces you.
Or, probably you don't mind if massive emigrants come from climate-affected areas to go to your country... As it happened in Egypt thousands of years ago it may happen again. If they come just make them busy to prevent crime.
@youxkio Thanks. Glad it was helpful!
bott off @@scottslotterbeck3796
Nice one Dave! Individual change is key. Individual change drives cultural change and that in turn drives system change. System change is what is required if we stand any chance of a livable future...
How does individual change change anything? If I try to recycle there is almost 100% chance that it will end up getting thrown away at some point in the process. Whether the local trash pickup does it or in the case of compost, a lot of cities just don’t have facilities for it.
Trying to drive less to stop emitting so much CO2 and what not is another thing. Even if I completely stop driving some CEO frying private across the world is going to emit more in those flights than I could even hope to even make a dent in if I stopped driving.
Plastic straws/ other single use plastics are another thing. You and me and ever one in some large city could refuse to use them. That doesn’t mean f actor it’s are gunna stop producing them. Coke is one of the largest polluters. Do you really think some individuals could convince coke to stop producing all their plastic bottles? People yell at them all the time on huge platforms but they couldn’t give less of a shit cuz all they care about is their bottom line.
Individual change does nothing and just allows corporations to push the blame form them onto individuals and then greenwash the the problem so they can produce more good and make more money.
th-cam.com/video/5sgRTbTm91Q/w-d-xo.html
Here’s a video on why your carbon footprint is a scam and why individual change is a scam
@@ebenvanepps2092 Individuals vote with their tick in a box and with their money. It is Individuals who make up the population. It is Individuals that determine the rules of supply and demand. It is Individuals who choose not to drive, fly, buy coke, plastic straws, etc. It is Individuals that educated and encourage others to demand change. It is ultimately Individuals that determine policy by their actions. The system won't change unless Individuals demand it.
Excellent question and I would love to propose two variations that I find even more interesting. The first one is purely anthropocentric to start simple: should I be held responsible for the future of YOUR descendants, or is it YOUR (or their) problem? It is an important question because if I am to be responsible for the future of YOUR descendants, perhaps I should have the right to say something about YOUR decision to have descendants in the first place. The second one assumes that rights aren't strictly limited to human: should you be held responsible for the future of all non-human species? I chose these two questions because they both strongly support my personal opinion: we are way past the time where breeding more humans is beneficial for anyone or anything.
I agree that we'd all be better off with fewer people, but we can't just stop all child-bearing. We need enough young people to provide for older people who cannot work, and simply to keep society functioning. Most of the developed world is already having far fewer children than they need to support their society. Many countries, like America or Germany, make up for it by bringing in immigrants. I agree that if you or I are to be held responsible for all future humans, then we should have a say in other people's reproductive decisions as well as national decisions involving greenhouse gas emission. But we aren't being held legally responsible for any future beings, so that's all moot.
@@incognitotorpedo42 I am sorry that I have to say it, but having children to ensure availability of labor is an idea that I find personally revolting and i certainly wish most of humanity would feel the same. In this context it sounds like older generations burdening future generations with a double whammy: cleaning up the mess left by the older generations AND providing for the retirement of the elderly out of the workforce.
Driving contributes as much, if not more than air travel and is economically frivolous even if you don't factor in climate change.
The longer I live, the more I become convinced that humanity has a fatal flaw. I am a human; therefore, I do not stand exempt. On reflection, it appears to be a function of our evolution from creatures with emotions, which were once necessary for survival. Our species developed the ability for abstract thought. Emotions are stronger, in given situations, than rationality. We see evidence for that when people believe the unbelievable for emotional satisfaction. How else to explain the big madness like the conflict in Ukraine, or the small madnesses of everyday life.
Do you realize you're advocating for sterilizing Africa? Because birth rates are already low in all Western nations, Asia, etc.
I am likewise in my late fifties and no direct descendants but am still dismayed at the way things are going.
Thank you for making great content!
Well, now I’m depressed. And this is part of the problem. We humans tend to ignore that which make us feel bad and can’t really do any thing about. We escape into denial (it doesn’t exist or there’s nothing I can do about it ) and tribalism (since those people support it, and I am against those people, I must be against it also). Unfortunately, these two reactions can very much be used by those in power to keep a trend of inaction going. Keep the masses divided, and the money flowing to the rich. After all, the consequences will be somebody else’s problem.
The problem is that people smart enough to understand avoid engaging with the people that don't. What good are insights if you only share them with people that think the same way already?
Denial is the initial response. Anger is the second. There are a lot of angry people in the world. But as you say, that anger is often misdirected:
What, I ask you, have the future generations ever done for us?
Depression might be appropriate if there really is nothing that can be done, but just because you as an individual don't have the power to force change doesn't mean change isn't still possible. It just means there need to be more of us.
Bald Dave is getting rich making people depressed.
I loathe people like Dave, I really do
sounds like we have a solution for you. the final solution
What does is say about the state of our shared humanity if we don't care about the future well-being of humans and animals? Thanks for your videos and your efforts.
I believe the "doomers" see the most important thing is the planetary ecosystems that support life. Humans are instrumental in exploiting these ecosystems, I think most of us can agree. Hence, the ultimate concern does not lie in preservation of humanity, but in allowance of ecological sustainability to regain a foothold on the planet.
Really appreciate your videos. Solid data.
Thanks again Dave for another very informative video; your channel is an invaluable resource for learning about the existential risks that global heating poses for our civilisation. Down here in Australia we are already seeing extreme weather events that have clearly been exacerbated by climate change; large parts of the country may become uninhabitable within this century.
I'm about to turn 70. When we were born, the population was much smaller than today. Our ancestors never had plastic products. Now, the population is increasing by a billion each eleven years. I've been aware of the crisis since I was a toddler. My elders saw that in me and assured me that I should live for the moment. That moment is in the rear view mirror and they are long deceased. The human population MUST sharply decline and individuals must overcome the seven Cardinal sins. Envy, Greed, Pride, Anger, Lust, Gluttony and Laziness. (That is Unlikely.)
I don't think that is going to be a problem. Sperm counts in men are 50% down in men since 1970 due to plastics worldwide. Another 10-20% there are going to be serious ramifications to population.
Ok but who decides who should have no kids? This line of thought (population needs to decline fast) can easily be taken towards eugenics. Is a kid born in the US the same as a kid born in a poor neighborhood of Mumbai? I am tempted to say yes at that time, but over time the US born kid will live a very different life than the indian little guy, their waste is quite likely to be different. The problem is not the amount of people, but the amount of things we consume and eventually throw away.
@@arekugureman ...and there we come to the problem. I would never advocate for any arbiter to decide whom to restrict. The idea is disgusting and should never rear it's hideous specter again.
I learned from the Beeb this week that there is a word for what i've been increasingly feeling since the eighties; Solastalgia. It particularly describes the sense of loss felt by indigenous people removed from the ecosystem from which they have evolved as an integral part. But it also applies to westernised people who feel a sense of grief about the plummeting populations of insects, birds and animals of all size and species. As a child growing up in Dorset, it was so common to see a Thrush that few thought it a sin to take an egg as part of a collection. The stats now are appalling; 70% loss of wildlife in 70 years. In consequence i am deeply ashamed to be a baby-boomer, because this loss has largely happened during the reign of baby-boomers. A telling example of baby-boomer's cheery self-interest is a bumper sticker on the back of an RV saying 'I'm spending my children's inheritance', although the joke is probably framed in terms of money rather than CO2 and mined resources. Certainly PM Sunak's focus is on the self-interest of baby-boomers, those with property and investments in Shell, BP and Exxon, for historically this is the demographic that gets Conservatives into power so often. Sunak won't be concerned about some hypothetical voter's intentions in 70 year's time; as an asset manager he knows that money is all about now. Such is the depth of our current moral vacuum.
Thanks for your comment and your honesty. I'm in my early 70's and I've been watching this crisis evolve since college in the 60"s. Read my comment Evolution or Extinction above.
"westernised people who feel a sense of grief about the plummeting populations of insects, birds and animals of all size and species". How do you work that out, most westerners spend most their free time in front of a computer screen and aren't in touch with reality, let alone nature. That is why stupid views have proliferated.
Sunak has another problem, which I think many people do not address, and they really should.
I support going renewable energy, 100% support it, however, we have an issue. What happens when that renewable energy is not generating enough to cover demand? We have no way to store energy when renewables are over producing to release it when there is a still day for example.
And that's the problem, that's the reason we still require a portion of our grids to be non renewable. Personally I support nuclear over fossil fuels but the backlash over that from those who are improperly educated about the nuclear power industry is appalling.
As a result, some fossil fuelled power stations MUST remain open as backup as we switch over to more and more renewables UNTIL we develop some way of storing excess energy. THAT is the fact people like Greenpeace, Just stop oil and other extreme environmental activists don't grasp. Without storage, we cannot rely totally on renewables unless we overbuild those renewables so that even on the days when efficiency, thus generation is very low, they still generate enough power, or we have some method of mass storage of energy.
Let me make this absolutely clear, even those activists will be complaining bitterly if their power is cut because the renewables are undergoing a low efficiency day... Thats why a 100% renewable energy infrastructure at this current time is not simply unlikely, its flat out impossible given the storage technology available to us. Will that change in the future? I hope so, I know there is research ongoing, but the question is how long till that research bears fruit, and how long until the first facilities can be scaled up from scientific proof of concept to actually workable facilities....
@@alganhar1 Yes, you are right efficient and affordable storage is an issue, but just look at the way that the costs of renewable generation has dropped in the last couple of decades through research and efficiency of scale, and the same process will give us cheap storage and a smart grid, if politicians don't continue to favour their fossil funders. I'm wary about nuclear fission, not only because of the obvious disasters; Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima, but because Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminds us that big and centralised infrastructure makes an inviting target for terrorists, state or otherwise. It seems probable that a breakthrough will be found in nuclear fusion, and that offers hope to mankind in the distant future, when the sun is no longer our convenient source of nuclear power. J
It is naive to make this a conservative issue.
Facing the global collapse we are now in isn't easy, and it's so easy to jump to focusing on technological solutions, without first taking the time to really consider the severity of the situation we're in. Great video!! 🙌
Yes! Many of us don't want to acknowledge how we got here in the first place. We won't solve any crisis without first removing a few layers of the onion.
Animal and Plant Rights ought to be in the legislation internationally. Even though we continue to fail in justice for our own species.
Plant rights? The right of potato to get eaten gracefully?
societies that do not protect the environment our species requires for survival are unsustainable in the long run.
@@hannachumakova1086 No, given the number of extinct species already, the threatened and endangered, THE RIGHT TO EXIST.
@@hannachumakova1086 we are the cause of extinction to plant species too, although keeping a seed bank may save some more easily than a DNA bank could animal species. Stomping through the tulips is as unacceptable as overuse of pesticides.
@@hannachumakova1086the right of forests to exist without being cut down by evil corporations
I'm seen as a bit of a crack pot in my family, banging on about the the changes we need to make to our lives to save US (not just the planet). As you said in your video with Bobby recently, every little helps! You have to lead by example. I got laughed at when i got an EV but now my daughter has bought one too, and 2 of my friends and 2 colleagues at work from just having had a go in mine. It would be nice to bike it like you Dave but it's a 50km round commute and poor public transport in NZ. Keep banging the drum with your great videos!!
Electric cars are disaster capitalism. They contribute to the problem. Maintaining an older ICE car for longer, and using an electric bike or public transport is the only viable solution.
In your case though, it sounds like the issue is housing related. Which is another economic issue. A functional society should not rely on people having to use grossly unsustainable personal transportation to subsidise workplaces. You should have the right to housing close to your place of work. Except in rare situations where work requires that you are on the move a lot.
Of course EVs require strip mining by children, but who cares if it makes you feel good, eh?
I agree, it would be great not to have to rely on personal transport although i disagree with the idea that keeping an old ice vehicle is better than going EV, bearing in mind the offset of extra carbon is negated within 1.5yrs of normal driving. I've done over 90,000km in just 3.5 years and the NZ grid is 80-90% renewable generation. Once we can go to autonomous shared vehicles, I'll be in for sure👍 As for housing, i agree, City makeup needs to be amended to be more convenient for work/housing proximity. I live rural so do my bit with regenerating of a wetland area and tree planting.
@@matthewbrown435 ah, it does help that the grid is more heavily renewable, but I don't buy those numbers. The cost of manufacturing a car was quoted to me when I was a young machinist as being roughly equivalent of it's lifetime consumption of petrol. In terms of oil, and fossil fuel use for producing the car.
Manufacturing has gotten more efficient, but not that much. And I bet the accounting never factors in the high cost of maintenance of infrastructure, or it's penalty for alternative forms of transport.
But I think the other issues I brought up are way more important. We won't get enough cars off the road if we don't address things like workplace rights, housing security, etc. etc.
@@jamesrowlands8971 I think the general point is don't go and buy an electric car for the sake of it, but when you do get a new car, get an electric one. But that said, there are many articles with numbers to support the idea that switching to an EV right away is the best option:
"According to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, in 2021, the average age of a car on the road was 12.1 years. So let's go back in time 12 years to 2010. Per EPA data reported by The New York Times, the average miles per gallon for 2010 was roughly 22.5 miles per gallon.
According to the EPA, an average vehicle that gets 22 miles per gallon emits 404 grams of CO2 per mile. Let’s say the vehicle travels 10,000 miles per year. That’s 4,040,000 grams (or 8,907 pounds) of CO2 making its way into the world each year.
On the EV front, let’s look at the Chevy Bolt or Hyundai Kona since they are the least expensive of the top five [most efficient] vehicles, starting at $31,500 and $34,000, respectively. According to the EPA, both emit 130 grams of CO2 per mile, based on the average US electricity mix. After 10,000 miles, that's 1,300,000 grams (or 2,866 pounds) of CO2 per year.
Per year, the EV produces roughly 6,041 pounds less CO2 than the 2010 vehicle.
As far as manufacturing goes, the old car is already built, so let’s give it a pass regarding its manufacturing carbon footprint. According to a 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists report, a full-size long-range (265 miles) vehicle had a carbon footprint of about six tons, or 12,000 pounds.
In two years, the EV will have caught up to the used car in terms of ecological footprint. After that, as with new gas cars, an EV surpasses it in efficiency for its entire life cycle."
(From an ArsTechnica article from last year.)
But with all things, it depends on your circumstances. Right now I drive maybe 20km a week on average - if that. So for me, even though I live in Norway where 99% of electricity is from renewable sources, it still makes no sense for me to switch to an EV. I will run my current (12 year old) car into the ground before I buy a new one. (I work from home, but live in the countryside, so I do need something to get me around.)
I’ve made it a point to do my best to leave anything better than when I’d found it. The helplessness I’ve felt because of profits over people is infuriating! The guillotine is too kind.
"profits iver people".
Why don't you explain what that means? Prifit drives innovation.
A wise man ince sais, "Innovation fliws to where it is rewarded".
Do you understand that? Does it make sense?
Of course it does.
@@scottslotterbeck3796 yes, profit has sure driven innovation. That’s why we get a new iPhone every year with SO many new features and $800 foam kanye shoes.
@@scottslotterbeck3796"""Profit drives innovation"""
Sure mate, try writing a book or creating anything else for that matter with solely money in mind and then tell me how it went, alright?
Thank you 🙏 excellent video, well written and explained ☺️🌀
Thank you so much for this great insight! We need to act based on science and now ...
Dave, thank you for this summary. Your insights are always easy to comprehend, and your delivery is remarkably engaging. However, the content isn't always as pleasing. We've had similar discussions on subjects such as slavery here in The Netherlands. The actions of our ancestors still impact our current era. I feel guilt, even though I'm incapable of rectifying the past beyond offering an apology. We've severely disrupted the balance on our planet, and for that, I apologize to future generations. Nonetheless, we still have a significant opportunity to make things better, and we should seize that chance.
Guilt(n.) I'd feel guilt if I thought there really was something that could be done. I need a new word.
@@camlinhall1363 There is. Do you eat meat? do you take flights? do you drive a car? stop all of these things and you should feel less guilty.
@@camlinhall1363 My guess is that anybody watching this video probably doesn't have so much to feel guilty about. The problem is those that don't see the problem, or more especially, those that see but choose not to act.
@@bluceree7312 OK ... altho I stopped flying (I did an awful lot in fairness) in 1993. Still staying away from airports; feel no better. Just doing 'the right thing' in itself? If it works for you👍
I certainly hope this channel doesn't devolve into politics. I hope it remains about science and technology.
Thanks for yet another sane and informative video. I have been thinking and I believe they should change the name from Anthropocene to Egocene, just to headlight our behaviour and the reason why this is happening.
I love this channel so much.
Thank you , really great structured presentation .
You are welcome!
As a home-gardener, there are micro-decisions I can make with every visit that are visibly significant in the garden, even if the impact is micro-scale in the wider landscape.
I really like your videos, and wish I had the gift of presentation that you possess. This is a topic that Ive been "having a think about" for most of my life.
Roughly 40 years ago, when I was still considering a career as a biologist (biotech was all the rage at the time) I took a course in “Ecology” (another buzzword of the era). One segment of the course dealt with Population Dynamics. For some reason, after looking at all the models in the textbooks, I decided to do my term paper by plugging in data for the human species.
Obviously back then we had nowhere near as much information to draw upon, as a basis for calculating the "carrying capacity" of the environment. Im sure my calculations were off by many magnitudes, but I did make the (prescient?) assumption that humans in the early 80s could not expect to take any MORE land away from natural biomes; we would have to make do with the agricultural land then under cultivation.
The results hit me like the tolling of a funeral bell. We just don’t have enough planet to support this many people without massive inputs of energy. We were already well past the "sustainable equilibrium population" level in the early 80s, and we have nearly doubled the number of mouths since then. The human race has to cut its numbers, or the inevitable population crash will do that FOR us. This is a basic principle of biology. Contained systems just cant go on growing forever. They always overshoot, and then crash.
Essentially I have been waiting 40 years for doomsday to arrive. I rarely talk about this perspective because I know how hard it is to swallow some of the baked-in truths. Even today, people warn of "how terrible" it is that populations are starting to decline in many parts of East Asia. . . . as if that is a BAD thing. (But . . . but . . . how can we sustain continuous GDP growth if the population shrinks?)
The fact is that the next century is going to be very difficult for humans no matter where they live or how wealthy they may be. Our entire global economic structure is on the verge of collapse. And when systems truly collapse, a loaf of bread is worth more than all the gold in your Bitcoin account.
Great essay. IIRC most urbanised countries have already been on a birthrate decline for several generations, so the population being unsustainable will only be a temporary problem until the largest generations that were born prior to or during early urbanisation pass away. Womens' ed also helped keep the population down. In the US we still have a ways to go because unlike the rest of the industrialised world, the Boomers actually had a lot of kids whoa re Millennials for the most part. My (Millennial) generation is a smaller proportion of the population in places like Korea, Japan, Canada, much of Europe, and yes even China (of course, due to their 1-child law from the 1980s to 2015). Our problem really is the economic model assumes the fantasy of infinite growth when this is not possible in a finite space.
@@IvyANguyen the good part about the economic model is it assumes just monetary growth. Being unbound from any natural matter like gold technically inflating the currency as we like is not that much of a problem. The ugly part which even now we are likely to mismanage is to keep wage increases and inflation in balance. With both being on the same level the monetary inflation will only be a minor issue.
What we will not be able to increase is our resource consumption, that is the real life limits for our species.
You are so right!, as informed as this video was it did not, even once mention Human over-population, which is the root cause of 70% loss of species and global warming. it seems that our instinct to procreate is blinding us to what's really the problem and preventing the proper corrections to be implemented, we are doomed.
Thanks for your work
I can just imagine a certain demographic shouting at the screen "Course he should be made responsible it's his fault she's dead' and then back-tracking as soon as they realise the premise of your video!
I am optimistic that most people will do the right thing given the right information.
At this point I look at the sewer of "information" that people have available and it totally explains the mess we are in.
If we are going to teach critical thinking then this channel would be an outstanding example of good, varied ideas presented with references.
😂😂😂😂
I mean if COVID taught us anything its that they, in pretty large numbers, will not. Now more than ever we need strong leadership that can actually lead society towards a future that isn't so bleak, even if they are actively fought by a third of the population.
@@maluse227 You say "strong leadership" not "strong leader" I think that's an important distinction that is spot on.
To put it in other ways we need statesmen not politicians or discussion/reasoning not soundbites.
@@andrewharrison8436 yup basically we need leaders not salesmen looking for the best way to market the apocalypse so that they stay in power.
I watch these videos and am determined that we need to change things. But in the end I am entangled in systems that I cannot change. Systems sometimes only change when they break.
change is possible even in small steps. if you for example plant one small container with seeds that grow into food you will then eat that means you don't need to buy this food from a supermarket that may be shipped from another corner of the world and produced a lot of CO2. please don't give up because you consider things like this as too small. there is no such thing as too small in saving our world! look for something, a little thing. even not to spending money on something that would turn into waste and prefer a solution that can serve multiple purposes when re-used is a thing you could do. please don't give up. small steps count as much as big ones!
Thank you for the amazing content
Excellent video, thanks.
Great that you are getting into ethics there with questions about responsibility! Indeed, I think the ethical questions are unavoidable and I think we do have duties to future generations, humanity, and the earth.
On a related note, I am amazed that I see so many parents with giant gas guzzlers. I don't have kids but I care about the future of humanity. Yet so many parents seem oblivious to their environmental impacts.
The only ethics that Bald Dave is concerned about is what makes Bald Dave rich.
I have been watching your videos for a couple of years now Dave, find them very informative, and align with my opinions. I do have children and grandchildren, and am extremely concerned for their future. Until we get governments of nations to act in the interests of their constituents instead of their pockets and corporate buddies, I think action on climate change will be limited. I've found that politicians pay lip service to voters, but once in power, the lobbyists of big corporations influence decisions. I hope this changes in the very near future, maybe with the help of legal actions.
The solution is fewer people.
The part of your comment "and align with my opinions" is a major part of the problem. Learn the facts, not have an ideological biases. Dave often, even mostly, does not align with my opinions but I like the facts he presents and try to ignore his obvious left-leaning bent. Use your brain not your emotions.
@@markintexas1296 Hard to find any brain in climite doomer cult
Thank You !!
Thanks for this vid -- especially your call to action! Yes, we must work on this. Even (or especially) if you're older. And yes, this ship is made by and run by humans. It is hard and daunting, but we must convince and require the humans to change course.
My parents absolutely refused to care about the future, anything after their deaths. Hating nature and driving a late model car was a thing you had to do to earn a living. Smugness over being dead by the disaster was always present in the room.
Late model cars pollute less and are mire efficient than older cars.
Don't you know that?
Sorry your parents raised an obnoxious and ungrateful child.
Move to North Korea.
Sadly, as individuals we have very little say or effect no matter what we do. It's up to governments and big corporations to change, but of course change means less profit so we're basically screwed.
Not true. Nuclear power and fuels from CO2 are beginning right now.
Bald Dave wants you miserable and afraid.
Tell Bald Dave, "I will make the world a better place! Your doom and gloom hysteria will not paralyze me! I WILL make the world a better place!"
governments don't care about profits and corporations can always ask governments to brainwash children through public schools into buying whatever crap they're selling. They don't even need to sell something people want as long as governments force them to want it. It's easy.
"We did not inherit the Earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children."
- Native American proverb (I think)
Thank you for the links; it's always nice when the presenter gives access to his forces. I will be forwarding these articles to my climate denying friends.
I always enjoy when the algorithm brings you by. Thank you.