Takes a lot of integrity and professionalism to come on every week and speak the truth. Many staying silent… been to a lot of quiet dinners lately … the bravado has left the chat. Thank you for delivering the facts- no agenda!
@@the_ikiru if someone overpays then doesn't or become the benchmark for the rest? I thought that's how these prices went up. 1 f0ol pays and population is expected to live upto that fo0l..
yes, closed to 2018 for downtown condos, but every other type of house is way higher than 2018 levels, they are at mid 2021 levels, and very distant from, let's say, mid 2020 levels.
my friends bought a property for 700K at 1.59% in mid 2020. That same townhouse today costs about 900K at 4.1%, you end up paying 70% more in monthly payments for the same house only 4 years later
There is this Canadian myth that house prices will always go up. Our middle class and young people have lost their purchasing power due to inflation, and buyers are allbut gone. Rate cuts won't move the market until prices correct to the our reality.
The going rate for condos less than 10 years ago was $400 a foot. That was not cheap. This meltdown is going to be in the news very soon. Then the fear takes over. It’s going to get ugly.
You 100 percent correct but government keeping that crazy prices by massive immigration. People have to live somewhere so investors didn't loose much. Prices will go down but not dramatically...
@@oleksandrshyiatyi6826 The biggest falsehood is that immigration increases GDP..... increasing immigration can NOT increase gdp when applied into an already stagnant 10+ years Canadian gdp/gdi(gross domestic income) derivable economic metric that has become reliant upon no more than Debt instrument expansion in maintanance of aforementioned already stagnant 10+ years gdp.... and very simply because the equally stagnant gdi is FINITE intending merely smaller pieces of that FINITE derivable 'income' pie for all.... albeit, competition increases as standards of living decrease in aggregate suggestive to productivity growth. You've been lied to.... rents will drop as you can't get blood from a stone and intending the current rent strikes/LTB backlogs/Condo project failures/receiverships and lowering rents heading into Real Estate deflation are merely symptomatic of increasingly negative societal factors ro revenue income strategies.
dirtlump lives in the burbs. he doesn't qualify for luxury. there are condos selling today north of 1k psf. and this is the bottom of the market. just imagine a year from now.
@@vert911 Nah....Sorry to burst ur bubble there for concrete sh*thole in the sky dwellers..... but I retired at 48 on my investments(NOT RERL based) having never inherited 5 cents in my life nor won a lottery.... and that was 17 years ago ! More recently I just finished my new House on a Lake in the BC interior.... private drive, very secluded... you get the picture and 'nuff said. My point being..... and no doubt about it I've been fortunate in life.... but suffice to say I always had a knack for spotting a loser ? especially a fomo 'frenzied' loser = the CONDO 'investment' market which has been stink'in to high heaven for awhile now ? Just watch what happens now there 'luxury' fella !
You’re also ovelooking the interest cost in the loss equation. Remember, in a front loaded mortgage most of the payment goes towards servicing interest not principal. If a seller sold at the same price they purchased 5 years previous, most of their payments are gone.
The top 10% based on size, location and better building will be more sheltered from a downturn for sure. But with 20,000 more units set to complete over the next 18 months. I have zero optimism for the condo market as a whole.
@@teamsessa I asked Chatgpt: The estimated total preconstruction condo sales values for each year in Toronto (GTA) were: 2018: $16.8 billion. 2019: $18.48 billion. 2020: $23.76 billion. 2021: $32.03 billion. 2022: $33.14 billion. These estimates reflect the rapid rise in prices and sales volumes during the period, with 2021 and 2022 being particularly strong years(Urbanation)(STOREYS).
I did some stats on my watchlist. It's now up to 120 entries, mostly 1 and 1+1 bedroom condos downtown. I identified 3 groups of sellers. All numbers are rounded-off medians: The deluded sellers started at $650K and lowered their prices to $590K before giving up. They were on the market for 110 days. The hopeful sellers started at $590K and have lowered their prices to $570K. They are still trying after 70 days. The practical sellers started at $570K and sold at $530K after 90 days. I'm just looking at numbers, though. I'd love to hear what insights you've got into the psychology of different groups of sellers from actually talking to them.
I hate to say it, but there's gotta be a loss somewhere. Housing prices just can't keep going up and up without there being a commensurate increase in people's wages. Either the market has to correct downwards so that housing is affordable again, or people's wages need to increase massively. The situation we have now is utterly untenable, and is in many ways contributing to the current economic woes we all have.
Best news I heard all day. How about condos bought at $1500-1700-2000 how does that work? I only have one question? Who takes the loses? It had better not be the taxpayer.
@@parthppatel28 I agree. I have lost plenty of money in shares. No one came to the door and said let’s make you whole sir. I just have no idea what happens when peoples homes get deleveraged to make up loses on investment properties gone south. This is going to get ugly quick. I am not sure a conservative government will be in the business of bailing out speculators. The drama teacher PM we have now you never know.
Everyone knew that this condo market/investment into concrete was a "game". Not a "ponzi" game, but the other type of "game", and as any game - there are winners (which are always a little number) and a lot of losers. And as any game, it has a beginning and an end. Now we can see and identify the beginning of the "game", but its end is still in the dark.🙄
If you need a place to live, pay the smallest amount you can get away with. If buying is cheaper than renting, then buy. Otherwise, just rent. Nothing is going up much at all from this point. However, there is a high probability it will decline in value. What a ridiculous investment idea. Owning a hot dog stand is much more profitable
Sell... TO WHO? Do you think that there's fresh blood still to squeeze from the stone when... 1. People are already spending crazy % of their budget on housing (e.g. like 50-100%), 2. The govt is cutting back on migrant numbers, 3. The govt introduces 30 year ammortization (why would they do this if everything was healthy?), 4. Anyone capable of buying has already done so in the past few years. So much time & energy on such an unproductive sector only has one outcome..............
@@markz1013 I agree! It’s sad to think that housing has slowly become a pyramid scheme of sorts. My wife and I paid off our mortgage in late 2021. It was planned and a part of a natural course for us. We followed the basics like making as large allowed on the anniversary date every year, and paying our mortgage every two weeks (26 payments) which increased the number of yearly payments versus monthly (12) or split monthly (24) payments. We also chose the largest payment option possible to help reduce the principal amount owed. Upon renewal we always chose the hardest payment option. We started pur mortgage on October 01 of 2008 and made a final lump sum payment on October 31 of 2021. 13 years and 1 month later we owned our home. Now, we get to relax and travel and spend time with family.
Jo, good catch. Why did u sell if it was so good? U were trying to fomo people to start buying then announced that u sold everything. Guess u didn’t. Still desperate to dump, eh?
my tenants still paying what they were paying last year and the year before (very high rent) and now my payments are going down, and will continue to go down. Wheres the issue?
By 2030 The Condo vales will go down by 30% that is how market will be going on. The Reason is thousands of new Condos will be built by then and available for rent or sale. Just drive around and see how many signs of new Condo development going on around you.
@@bpd9660 i have a property in Greece.....some friends have permanently invested and moved there...apparently doing well. I don't think prices will drop much here...I think once the conditions stabilize...the exact opposite will happen. Its all about supply and demand . Builders will stop building new condos here by 2027 ( yes there is an oversupply now ). Guess what will happen after 2027? There is no more space for new homes in the city.
@@charlescg3904 Who do you think is putting up signs in these poor countries and inviting them here? telling them things are wonderful in hopes they will get jobs and rent out the 1000 condos they each purchased? 🙄
I’m 1100 sqft with monetization of views Epic views to say the least sunsets sunrises solar eclipse, stars 💫 galactic skyline views open concept million dollars amenities, concierge for Amazon, 90 mins to USA 🇺🇸 1/2 hr to Oakville , 15-18 mins downtown, hop scotch away from subway 🚇 minutes away from telecom big 3 , 10 mins away from municipalities, 270 degree views corner suite open concept with hotel living, $2.5 M , 100% equity
One off situations are not an indication of anything. I bought a precon in 2018 and it is up 50% in value... another one up 25% in less time.... am I ever going to sell these? No, they are high end rental stock with long term tenants. If that areas prices for new stuff hasn't gone up... that means that the resale prices in that area went down and the resale lost even more money. Realtors who tell you a 2014 Lambo sells for the same price as a 2024 Lambo you can easily see don't know what they are talking about. Most of the time, the actual losers are the people that 'won' a bidding war and paid the top price for a resale unit (house or condo) that is old and you could possibly have gotten a new comparable place for a small price difference.... of course most realtors won't tell you that.
@@jeffotoole4509 say no to drugs, condos are within 5% of their all time high prices (and some areas are above the covid peak)..... when aapl is trading at 300 instead of 30 a few years ago, there ain't anything bad about it.
@@vert911 l meant the video title why negative if prices going up he is doing this in purpose on almost all his recent videos just for more clicks and views even in free hold detached houses title so negative and when he goes to the numbers sells up prices up give us break please be transparent we reached this unaffordable point mostly because of some greedy realtors or maybe most of them, I am not an investor or home owner I just want the affordability to be restored so I can buy but this market has no transparency and most of realtors misleading us.
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Takes a lot of integrity and professionalism to come on every week and speak the truth. Many staying silent… been to a lot of quiet dinners lately … the bravado has left the chat. Thank you for delivering the facts- no agenda!
Couple years back people in industry THOUGHT that WE CAN NEVER GO TO 2018 PRICE and now HERE WE ARE!
Where are the 2018 prices
It's precon. They overpaid in 2018.
@@the_ikiru if someone overpays then doesn't or become the benchmark for the rest? I thought that's how these prices went up. 1 f0ol pays and population is expected to live upto that fo0l..
yes, closed to 2018 for downtown condos, but every other type of house is way higher than 2018 levels, they are at mid 2021 levels, and very distant from, let's say, mid 2020 levels.
my friends bought a property for 700K at 1.59% in mid 2020. That same townhouse today costs about 900K at 4.1%, you end up paying 70% more in monthly payments for the same house only 4 years later
There is this Canadian myth that house prices will always go up. Our middle class and young people have lost their purchasing power due to inflation, and buyers are allbut gone. Rate cuts won't move the market until prices correct to the our reality.
if this was true prices would not be trending up in the core since august.
Nobody is Paying $1,200/Ft... $1,000/ft .... or even $600/ft for a concrete sh*thole in the sky ? If "investors" are so smart let them live in it !
The going rate for condos less than 10 years ago was $400 a foot. That was not cheap. This meltdown is going to be in the news very soon. Then the fear takes over. It’s going to get ugly.
You 100 percent correct but government keeping that crazy prices by massive immigration. People have to live somewhere so investors didn't loose much. Prices will go down but not dramatically...
@@oleksandrshyiatyi6826 The biggest falsehood is that immigration increases GDP..... increasing immigration can NOT increase gdp when applied into an already stagnant 10+ years Canadian gdp/gdi(gross domestic income) derivable economic metric that has become reliant upon no more than Debt instrument expansion in maintanance of aforementioned already stagnant 10+ years gdp.... and very simply because the equally stagnant gdi is FINITE intending merely smaller pieces of that FINITE derivable 'income' pie for all.... albeit, competition increases as standards of living decrease in aggregate suggestive to productivity growth.
You've been lied to.... rents will drop as you can't get blood from a stone and intending the current rent strikes/LTB backlogs/Condo project failures/receiverships and lowering rents heading into Real Estate deflation are merely symptomatic of increasingly negative societal factors ro revenue income strategies.
dirtlump lives in the burbs. he doesn't qualify for luxury. there are condos selling today north of 1k psf. and this is the bottom of the market. just imagine a year from now.
@@vert911
Nah....Sorry to burst ur bubble there for concrete sh*thole in the sky dwellers.....
but I retired at 48 on my investments(NOT RERL based) having never inherited 5 cents in my life nor won a lottery.... and that was 17 years ago !
More recently I just finished my new House on a Lake in the BC interior.... private drive, very secluded... you get the picture and 'nuff said.
My point being..... and no doubt about it I've been fortunate in life.... but suffice to say I always had a knack for spotting a loser ? especially a fomo 'frenzied' loser = the CONDO 'investment' market which has been stink'in to high heaven for awhile now ?
Just watch what happens now there 'luxury' fella !
You’re also ovelooking the interest cost in the loss equation. Remember, in a front loaded mortgage most of the payment goes towards servicing interest not principal. If a seller sold at the same price they purchased 5 years previous, most of their payments are gone.
The top 10% based on size, location and better building will be more sheltered from a downturn for sure.
But with 20,000 more units set to complete over the next 18 months.
I have zero optimism for the condo market as a whole.
Great overview-pre-construction condo challenges are definitely something to watch in the GTA market!
The drama is unfolding slowly.
Thank you Santos. Your image says "guy I'd like to have a drink with", who knew you're really "brilliant guy I'd like to have a drink with".
Did someone say drinks?
@@teamsessa I asked Chatgpt:
The estimated total preconstruction condo sales values for each year in Toronto (GTA) were:
2018: $16.8 billion.
2019: $18.48 billion.
2020: $23.76 billion.
2021: $32.03 billion.
2022: $33.14 billion.
These estimates reflect the rapid rise in prices and sales volumes during the period, with 2021 and 2022 being particularly strong years(Urbanation)(STOREYS).
I did some stats on my watchlist. It's now up to 120 entries, mostly 1 and 1+1 bedroom condos downtown. I identified 3 groups of sellers. All numbers are rounded-off medians:
The deluded sellers started at $650K and lowered their prices to $590K before giving up. They were on the market for 110 days.
The hopeful sellers started at $590K and have lowered their prices to $570K. They are still trying after 70 days.
The practical sellers started at $570K and sold at $530K after 90 days.
I'm just looking at numbers, though. I'd love to hear what insights you've got into the psychology of different groups of sellers from actually talking to them.
2018 prices? still overpriced by 40%
Just wait two years.... prices set for massive drop in Toronto
@@bpd9660 opposite, actually. its already happening. prices up in the core since august. numbers dont lie.
@@bpd9660curious about how much confident are you about this because people are still buying now
There’s no architectural masterpieces here except for Lego brick types
I hate to say it, but there's gotta be a loss somewhere. Housing prices just can't keep going up and up without there being a commensurate increase in people's wages. Either the market has to correct downwards so that housing is affordable again, or people's wages need to increase massively. The situation we have now is utterly untenable, and is in many ways contributing to the current economic woes we all have.
Toronto investor gets burned instead of a renter, how sad.
😂
@@marc37921😂😂😂😂😂
@@Vicdhinsa1495😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Best news I heard all day. How about condos bought at $1500-1700-2000 how does that work? I only have one question? Who takes the loses?
It had better not be the taxpayer.
People who invested should take the losses. If you bought the shares that went down in value, you pay for it and no one else would or should..
@@parthppatel28 I agree. I have lost plenty of money in shares. No one came to the door and said let’s make you whole sir. I just have no idea what happens when peoples homes get deleveraged to make up loses on investment properties gone south. This is going to get ugly quick. I am not sure a conservative government will be in the business of bailing out speculators. The drama teacher PM we have now you never know.
Yes, you will pay the loss
First! Another great video. Thanks.
You rock!
these over priced garbage condos will have value at 1/3 of the price.
Everyone knew that this condo market/investment into concrete was a "game". Not a "ponzi" game, but the other type of "game", and as any game - there are winners (which are always a little number) and a lot of losers. And as any game, it has a beginning and an end.
Now we can see and identify the beginning of the "game", but its end is still in the dark.🙄
Sold our house 8 months ago and lost at least minimum, now probably double than minimum. I'll just wait 2 or 3 years if the market stabilize
What was the price per square foot when bought today not pre construction?
It's these micro condos below 600 sqft. There are a ton of them on the market. Sellers trying to break even but buyers are too smart.
If you need a place to live, pay the smallest amount you can get away with. If buying is cheaper than renting, then buy. Otherwise, just rent. Nothing is going up much at all from this point. However, there is a high probability it will decline in value. What a ridiculous investment idea. Owning a hot dog stand is much more profitable
Good luck!!
Sell... TO WHO? Do you think that there's fresh blood still to squeeze from the stone when... 1. People are already spending crazy % of their budget on housing (e.g. like 50-100%), 2. The govt is cutting back on migrant numbers, 3. The govt introduces 30 year ammortization (why would they do this if everything was healthy?), 4. Anyone capable of buying has already done so in the past few years.
So much time & energy on such an unproductive sector only has one outcome..............
Just house trading from here on in. New blood for the pyramid no longer exists.
@@markz1013 I agree! It’s sad to think that housing has slowly become a pyramid scheme of sorts.
My wife and I paid off our mortgage in late 2021. It was planned and a part of a natural course for us. We followed the basics like making as large allowed on the anniversary date every year, and paying our mortgage every two weeks (26 payments) which increased the number of yearly payments versus monthly (12) or split monthly (24) payments. We also chose the largest payment option possible to help reduce the principal amount owed. Upon renewal we always chose the hardest payment option.
We started pur mortgage on October 01 of 2008 and made a final lump sum payment on October 31 of 2021.
13 years and 1 month later we owned our home.
Now, we get to relax and travel and spend time with family.
Mine are spacious and have incredible views!! Multiple Offers!
I thought you already got rid of your bags
Jo, good catch. Why did u sell if it was so good? U were trying to fomo people to start buying then announced that u sold everything. Guess u didn’t. Still desperate to dump, eh?
my tenants still paying what they were paying last year and the year before (very high rent) and now my payments are going down, and will continue to go down. Wheres the issue?
Except it's easy to rent out a condo in a heartbeat?
By 2030 The Condo vales will go down by 30% that is how market will be going on. The Reason is thousands of new Condos will be built by then and available for rent or sale. Just drive around and see how many signs of new Condo development going on around you.
I’ve been buying condos for the last 10yrs and don’t have any regrets!! I’ll keep buying…
yup!! most of NYC live in condos, co ops, apartments. most of Europe live like that as well. ONLY Canada looks at it as a stock option not home
@danman-7419 you’ve most certainly been buying within your means.
Toronto Vancouver house prices ll go down %80 wake up
Me too! Buying since 2011 and LOVE the wealth it ahas created for me!
Mine are spacious and have incredible views!! Multiple Offers
Add in rate of INFLATION since 2018, and the loss is much greater.
So many investors are going to go bankrupt from this, worst is yet to come!
investor here. worst is behind us. my payments are going down
@@vert911and so will the rent
Maybe builders should build an actual condo and not s matchbox. Who wants to buy a 500 square box? For half a million???
Dont buy or rent in Toronto... prices headed MUCH LOWER!!
opposite, actually. do you own anything? probably not
@@vert911 sold Toronto residence 2022, left country
Good luck!!
@1964Loukas retired in Europe after long stint in Toronto
@@bpd9660 i have a property in Greece.....some friends have permanently invested and moved there...apparently doing well. I don't think prices will drop much here...I think once the conditions stabilize...the exact opposite will happen. Its all about supply and demand . Builders will stop building new condos here by 2027 ( yes there is an oversupply now ). Guess what will happen after 2027? There is no more space for new homes in the city.
Inflated market. It's all going to get worse. Toronto is in the top.6 countries in the world in a housing bubble.
Time to buy!
But not in Canada! 😂
Canada has been destroyed forever
what all miliions of immigrants going to buy? cheapest entry is condos
They can’t even afford to rent them at these prices 🤦♀️
They’re not bringing in Chinese and Middle eastern oil tycoons anymore. Millions of struggling Indian students aren’t going to move the market an inch
@@charlescg3904 Who do you think is putting up signs in these poor countries and inviting them here? telling them things are wonderful in hopes they will get jobs and rent out the 1000 condos they each purchased? 🙄
Don't think you can buy anything working in tim hortons
I’m 1100 sqft with monetization of views
Epic views to say the least sunsets sunrises solar eclipse, stars 💫 galactic skyline views open concept million dollars amenities, concierge for Amazon, 90 mins to USA 🇺🇸 1/2 hr to Oakville , 15-18 mins downtown, hop scotch away from subway 🚇 minutes away from telecom big 3 , 10 mins away from municipalities, 270 degree views corner suite open concept with hotel living, $2.5 M , 100% equity
Toronto Vancouver house prices ll go down %80 in 3 month guarantee
how much money do you want to bet? oh wait you have no money or you would own a home
One off situations are not an indication of anything. I bought a precon in 2018 and it is up 50% in value... another one up 25% in less time.... am I ever going to sell these? No, they are high end rental stock with long term tenants.
If that areas prices for new stuff hasn't gone up... that means that the resale prices in that area went down and the resale lost even more money. Realtors who tell you a 2014 Lambo sells for the same price as a 2024 Lambo you can easily see don't know what they are talking about.
Most of the time, the actual losers are the people that 'won' a bidding war and paid the top price for a resale unit (house or condo) that is old and you could possibly have gotten a new comparable place for a small price difference.... of course most realtors won't tell you that.
@@GreenBeanGreenBean is it bad enough yet or do you want more? Cause the bad has just begun. Sorry dude.
@@jeffotoole4509 say no to drugs, condos are within 5% of their all time high prices (and some areas are above the covid peak)..... when aapl is trading at 300 instead of 30 a few years ago, there ain't anything bad about it.
20,000 more set to complete and come on the market over the next 18 months.
Gonna be a lot of inventory!
@@Stormshfter you do know that new units sell for more, which will make the average price go up right.
@@Stormshfter yes. Yes there is. Add 20k plus all the panic for all the people that were holding out for the very last dollar and this gets ugly quick
Watching these snobs lose money makes me so happy!
Santo addicted to negativity so he can get more clicks and views.
It’s come to the point where you can no longer make it look good or sound good 🤷🏻♀️ it is what it is!
He tells the truth
Immigration has destroyed Canada.Government has destroyed canada
you think a video about condos going UP in price is... negative?
@@vert911 l meant the video title why negative if prices going up he is doing this in purpose on almost all his recent videos just for more clicks and views even in free hold detached houses title so negative and when he goes to the numbers sells up prices up give us break please be transparent we reached this unaffordable point mostly because of some greedy realtors or maybe most of them, I am not an investor or home owner I just want the affordability to be restored so I can buy but this market has no transparency and most of realtors misleading us.