@@thebarryman "An inverted yield curve forms when short-term debt instruments have higher yields than long-term instruments of the same credit risk profile. An inverted yield curve is unusual; a normal yield curve slopes upward, displaying yields that run from low to high as maturities increase." the indicator is the inversion, a inversion mean bond buyer favor higher duration then yield have a opposite relation to price. Bond trader buy longer duration if they see recession because recession usualy mean FED cut rate, so you make money if you have higher rate on duration in your asset. But, because bond trader think there was a recession doesn't necessarly mean there is one coming, they could be wrong, but it usualy a good indicateur of the sentiment, like a pulse running 5 days a week. But in our specific case now, were we've been inverted for years now, it's not really because we've been expecting a recession, but simply because we always knew 5% interest rate wasn't the new normal, it was a restrictive for fight inflation, but that once that was done, it would go back to a knew normal be it 3.5%? 2%? (that is the debate about " R* ") So even without a recession (soft landing), every bond trader knew rate would be going down, in 1 to 3 year, which is the reason there is a inversion. right now the bond yield of the 10y, is barely lower then 2y (0,1%) so there is barely no inversion now, a trend in lower duration, mean change sentiment that the economy will cut less (less probability of hard landing).
USA is lucky, the recession (at least much harder slow down) in the rest of the world is really desinflationary, specialy for good and commodity, so USA have much less need to tapper their economy to tame inflation, if the EU and China would be doing as good as USA, the fed would be still raising rate now.
08/14/2024. 79, Countries Central Banks Government Bonds Market Satellite Data History. MH/-Q∆1/=-Q1/- 007 to Q+2/+π∆Q/=+Q∆2/+ 009. 33, Countries Equities Market Satellite Data History. P-Q∆3/-Q/π-3/=-Q3/- 004 to +P4/+π+Q∆4/=+Q/+4/+ 008. Artificial super intelligence world.
When you have... You can... And you do. 🤔. 😎
Lol, Lisa said John was on a week long Disney cruise, ha ha ha good one 😂
Guy at 57:00 has no idea how the yield curve indicator works
I find it quite alrigth, maybe it's you?
@@1981Frederick yield curve disinverting is the recession indicator, not the initial inversion. The guest had it backwards.
@@thebarryman "An inverted yield curve forms when short-term debt instruments have higher yields than long-term instruments of the same credit risk profile. An inverted yield curve is unusual; a normal yield curve slopes upward, displaying yields that run from low to high as maturities increase."
the indicator is the inversion, a inversion mean bond buyer favor higher duration then yield have a opposite relation to price. Bond trader buy longer duration if they see recession because recession usualy mean FED cut rate, so you make money if you have higher rate on duration in your asset. But, because bond trader think there was a recession doesn't necessarly mean there is one coming, they could be wrong, but it usualy a good indicateur of the sentiment, like a pulse running 5 days a week. But in our specific case now, were we've been inverted for years now, it's not really because we've been expecting a recession, but simply because we always knew 5% interest rate wasn't the new normal, it was a restrictive for fight inflation, but that once that was done, it would go back to a knew normal be it 3.5%? 2%? (that is the debate about " R* ") So even without a recession (soft landing), every bond trader knew rate would be going down, in 1 to 3 year, which is the reason there is a inversion. right now the bond yield of the 10y, is barely lower then 2y (0,1%) so there is barely no inversion now, a trend in lower duration, mean change sentiment that the economy will cut less (less probability of hard landing).
BABABOOEY 🐒🍌🐵
WAIT WHY ARE WE FUNDING ALL THE WARS HAPPENING.... CAN SOMEONE GIVE ME THE 3RD GRADE ANSWER....THANKS...🙄😬😱🧐🤑🤑🤑🤑
@@jrw3-b3m cheers!
I don't want to live in a country that is subject to the whims of the world. I want to live in a country that shapes the world.
I like her pink coat the high color pitch only looks good on you
NO SOUND GOOD ONE 😅
USA is lucky, the recession (at least much harder slow down) in the rest of the world is really desinflationary, specialy for good and commodity, so USA have much less need to tapper their economy to tame inflation, if the EU and China would be doing as good as USA, the fed would be still raising rate now.
Mute......
Please don't vote for Harris.
@@davidblick2192 why would vote for a guy that has no respect for women especially women of color and is a convicted felon.
I'm voting for Walz
TDS channel 😂😂😂😂
08/14/2024.
79, Countries Central Banks Government Bonds Market Satellite Data History.
MH/-Q∆1/=-Q1/- 007 to Q+2/+π∆Q/=+Q∆2/+ 009.
33, Countries Equities Market Satellite Data History.
P-Q∆3/-Q/π-3/=-Q3/- 004 to +P4/+π+Q∆4/=+Q/+4/+ 008.
Artificial super intelligence world.