Great interview, always nice to see new people coming on and share their insights. I don't know what the price of oil and gas will be but I know that the set of experts that are precise enough in their analysis and predictions for me almost all have specificially pointed to oil and gas stocks as a high conviction trade opportunity. Keeping some dry powder to take advantage of dips in the first quater however seems prudent too. So I am 20% in cash as well.
Josef has matured remarkably over the years and provides thoughtful analysis for the long term. The market is not rational in the short term as there are too many variables to consider. Mike Rose has been purchasing shares of Tourmaline (TOU) virtually every week and is one of the very best CEO's out there. An incredible show of confidence.
Lucky me, I added significantly during tax loss season, final fills Jan ?6, but low-balled two adds that were too low to fill. +10% in 21 days?.. I'm OK with that. Josef once managed my owned resources fund, but he left them, as did I. He did a great job, and managing a mutual fund is much more difficult as managers must adhere to the company's investment policy statement. Today, most companies dictate "no hydrocarbons", load up on "new-green" energy. That impairs the sponsors' ability to provide excellent returns to pensioners and destroys the jobs that fill the tax-coffers.
China is a long term issue, not a short term. They will use less oil in 2025 than 2024, not because of soft data but they sell over 50% electric cars. Not to mention the boom in LNG trucks. Going to 2030, there will not be much in any growth in demand I don't think the majors will put money into big projects without a good chance on return. BTW: You are from Canada and kind of glossed over the 25% tariff that Trump wants to put on you exports, that will spike the cost of petroleum products in the midwest, lets see how that goes.
No more unexcusable SPR releases or driven down bias EIA data. It can only get rightsized from here on after. After all, Trump threatened the Saudi King & then Prince MBS in April | 2020 to STOP their overproduction fight with Putin. Trump's threats prevailed and saved the US domestic producers. Regards -
@@MarkJensen-se8nn You should really educate yourself on Chinese car production. BYD, Zeeker, Xpeng and Geely are making amazing vehicles, with tech that would put Tesla to shame. Jim Farely of Ford won't give up his Xiaomi SU7. "The Xiaomi SU7 was met with such popular demand in China that it reportedly sold out of its entire 2024 production run on the first day. In fact, Xiaomi is said to have sold 100,000 units before the first model was even delivered."
@@MarkJensen-se8nnI don’t know if you have ever been to China. It was an eye opener to me this fall. If you can sort through the nationalistic propaganda by US and Chinese governments. You will find an unstoppable ascending economic and social power across the Pacific. Whereas capitalism seems to be fulfilling its purpose and destiny of increasingly fewer and fewer people with all the goodies, the reverse is the Chinese miracle over the last 40 years.
Good guest, but his suggestion that Russia will trade the land in my of the four oblasts it has annexed for the small swath of land Ukraine is still barely hanging onto in the Kursk region is a total pipe dream.
co2 to ethanol and woody biomass to ethanol is just some of the many alts waiting in the wings It would truely add to an oil boom but it probably takes a couple of years. maybe recycling roof shingles is quicker truely a large amount of oil that a Reagan mindset of Well as he used to say doesn''t describe but certainly supply side.
$30 is my oil price prediction for 2025. It night even go to zero again! Not sure how anyone thinks it will go higher? Big recession on the way and likely huge stock market crashes, layoffs!
you could be right..but if they turn on the printing press you could be mistaken..corrupt system means only way to win regularly is not to play their game.
You do realize that wind and solar already produce more electricity than coal? That is not even counting the 73.62 billion kWh generated by residential solar. By 2026 fossil fuels will probably be under 50% of US power generation.
One of the best interviews I have ever seen. Maybe the best one. Josef is bang on with his views. Makes me laugh though, with the buying tax loss sales info. My oil stocks have been steadily rising. Guess I should keep them through 2025 and beyond.
Not sure this guy is seeing the global energy picture. That or he is long in energy and trying to offload his position. I guess we will know in 4 years. Unfortunately the guy driving our bus is using the rearview mirror to steer.
I think I'll listen to Doomberg instead of this guy. it sounds more plausible that oil prices will go down in 2025 with "drill baby, drill" and the current demand for oil is very low.
Maybe true, but it takes time for an oil rig to be developed and its output to reach the market, so I don't think it will happen in 2025. Besides that, such a low price makes oil production impossible for many producers, which sends supply down and prices up again.
Buy OXY. Bit higher debt from buying Anadarko and now Crownrock, but has super tier 1 assets, great Chemical business and first DAC facility begins ops in Aug '25. Additionally, Buffett been buying, owns 28% of OXY and buying up to 50%. In Berkshire report last year, he mentioned that OXY is one of the few companies he will own "indefinitely"
❓ What is your 2025 oil price prediction? Tell us in the comments!
Great interview, I would have hoped you asked about Solar outlook in the permian basin. Especially with the Trump/Elon connection.
Great interview, always nice to see new people coming on and share their insights.
I don't know what the price of oil and gas will be but I know that the set of experts that are precise enough in their analysis and predictions for me almost all have specificially pointed to oil and gas stocks as a high conviction trade opportunity. Keeping some dry powder to take advantage of dips in the first quater however seems prudent too. So I am 20% in cash as well.
Great interview appreciate the no hype approach and guidance.
Josef has matured remarkably over the years and provides thoughtful analysis for the long term. The market is not rational in the short term as there are too many variables to consider. Mike Rose has been purchasing shares of Tourmaline (TOU) virtually every week and is one of the very best CEO's out there. An incredible show of confidence.
great interview. Thanks
How did the prices keep going up if OPEC is increasing production in the United States is producing
Lucky me, I added significantly during tax loss season, final fills Jan ?6, but low-balled two adds that were too low to fill. +10% in 21 days?.. I'm OK with that. Josef once managed my owned resources fund, but he left them, as did I. He did a great job, and managing a mutual fund is much more difficult as managers must adhere to the company's investment policy statement. Today, most companies dictate "no hydrocarbons", load up on "new-green" energy. That impairs the sponsors' ability to provide excellent returns to pensioners and destroys the jobs that fill the tax-coffers.
Great information
No price prediction ; but no doubt oil & natural gas are going much , much higher.
China is a long term issue, not a short term. They will use less oil in 2025 than 2024, not because of soft data but they sell over 50% electric cars. Not to mention the boom in LNG trucks. Going to 2030, there will not be much in any growth in demand I don't think the majors will put money into big projects without a good chance on return. BTW: You are from Canada and kind of glossed over the 25% tariff that Trump wants to put on you exports, that will spike the cost of petroleum products in the midwest, lets see how that goes.
Kursk is a killing field. Not negotiable
That link to his subscription service does not work on my computer; just saying. Re: rising oil prices: hope he is right.
No more unexcusable SPR releases or driven down bias EIA data. It can only get rightsized from here on after. After all, Trump threatened the Saudi King & then Prince MBS in April | 2020 to STOP their overproduction fight with Putin. Trump's threats prevailed and saved the US domestic producers.
Regards -
XOM and CVX have said they are not going to pump more oil.
Re: -Demand Pull- vs Cost Push Economic Cycles
*32:16*
Commodity "super cycles" are onerous talking points. It’s mostly a commodity sector driven sales pitch.
Regards -
First off, China has 50 percent of worlds, solar n wind capacity, quickly eliminating coal and gas driven cars.
Only while the government subsidies last. Otherwise........going downhill fast. "Policy tested and already proven".
Regards -
@@MarkJensen-se8nn You should really educate yourself on Chinese car production. BYD, Zeeker, Xpeng and Geely are making amazing vehicles, with tech that would put Tesla to shame. Jim Farely of Ford won't give up his Xiaomi SU7.
"The Xiaomi SU7 was met with such popular demand in China that it reportedly sold out of its entire 2024 production run on the first day. In fact, Xiaomi is said to have sold 100,000 units before the first model was even delivered."
@@rvfishing8817 I'll check it out. Regards -
@@MarkJensen-se8nnI don’t know if you have ever been to China. It was an eye opener to me this fall. If you can sort through the nationalistic propaganda by US and Chinese governments. You will find an unstoppable ascending economic and social power across the Pacific. Whereas capitalism seems to be fulfilling its purpose and destiny of increasingly fewer and fewer people with all the goodies, the reverse is the Chinese miracle over the last 40 years.
Good guest, but his suggestion that Russia will trade the land in my of the four oblasts it has annexed for the small swath of land Ukraine is still barely hanging onto in the Kursk region is a total pipe dream.
co2 to ethanol and woody biomass to ethanol is just some of the many alts waiting in the wings It would truely add to an oil boom but it probably takes a couple of years. maybe recycling roof shingles is quicker truely a large amount of oil that a Reagan mindset of Well as he used to say doesn''t describe but certainly supply side.
Buy chevron or Exxon?
Exxon = *A+*
Regards -
Both😊
@@konstantinospapadakis5041 Both are run quite well.
$30 is my oil price prediction for 2025. It night even go to zero again! Not sure how anyone thinks it will go higher? Big recession on the way and likely huge stock market crashes, layoffs!
you could be right..but if they turn on the printing press you could be mistaken..corrupt system means only way to win regularly is not to play their game.
A lot of US producers, especially fracking, go bust at $30 barrel, which will cure any over supply
That's my 2025 bitcoin prediction.
Because "higher" means what in a world flooded with fiat?
China is broke just like everyone else.
Good info. Thanks !!😊
Underinvestment in oil?
No sour oil - USA only import. You have only sweat oil. Is no refiners in the US!
33:25 🐐
Did he say "Iran is not a power anymore?" at 16:40?
Assad and Hezbollha is no longer an arm of Iran.
So in that sense, they don't have control of the area anymore, as far as oil is concerned.
"Iran is not a power anymore" and "Hezbollah is no longer an arm of Iran" is delusional cope
@@dialecticalmonist3405 Okay, in that sense, yes. But Iran certainly does have plenty of military power.
Iran has always been a "paper tiger". Israel will demonstrate that in the near future.
Regards -
@@BobHaikou
-But Iran certainly does have plenty of military power.-
Only an "appearance" of power.
Regards -
I thought we were getting a break.
All "renewables" are a total waste of time. Go long on US pipeline companies and LNG.
Re: All "renewables" are a total waste of time.
...unless you're running for public office in San Francisco.
Regards -
You do realize that wind and solar already produce more electricity than coal? That is not even counting the 73.62 billion kWh generated by residential solar. By 2026 fossil fuels will probably be under 50% of US power generation.
One of the best interviews I have ever seen.
Maybe the best one.
Josef is bang on with his views.
Makes me laugh though, with the buying tax loss sales info.
My oil stocks have been steadily rising.
Guess I should keep them through 2025 and beyond.
Another fracking boom?..
Not sure this guy is seeing the global energy picture. That or he is long in energy and trying to offload his position. I guess we will know in 4 years. Unfortunately the guy driving our bus is using the rearview mirror to steer.
You sound like a child when you make assumptions like “he’s trying to offload his position”
I think I'll listen to Doomberg instead of this guy. it sounds more plausible that oil prices will go down in 2025 with "drill baby, drill" and the current demand for oil is very low.
You're too much awash in Biden's legacy. Back to unbiased accurate data collection for 2025.
Regards -
Doesn’t doomberg say demand and consumption only goes up and to the right ?
Doomberg hides behind a green chicken cartoon....
Short oil then and put your $$ where your mouth is. Good luck with that trade! 😂
45$ a barrel due to drill baby drill
😂
@ change a coming soon
Maybe true, but it takes time for an oil rig to be developed and its output to reach the market, so I don't think it will happen in 2025. Besides that, such a low price makes oil production impossible for many producers, which sends supply down and prices up again.
@ i heard Alaska can turn on nearly 50% oftheir wells in months that biden closed
....no. ... bottom already occurred.
Regards -
You wont see 90 oil...not in 2025
With those glasses. I can't believe a word he says
not to mention his snazzy blazer lol
Dont buy shitcos lads. Buy XOM, CNQ, or SU. Im long XOM calls for next jan.
Both Chevron & Exxon are long term accumulate issues.
Regards -
Buy OXY. Bit higher debt from buying Anadarko and now Crownrock, but has super tier 1 assets, great Chemical business and first DAC facility begins ops in Aug '25. Additionally, Buffett been buying, owns 28% of OXY and buying up to 50%. In Berkshire report last year, he mentioned that OXY is one of the few companies he will own "indefinitely"
@@richardcranium2059
Berkshire just may end up acquiring the entire company.
Regards -
Yeah yeah when the oilprices rising is the doom not far 🫵🏽😎