In the last few years I sold my bitcoin and traded through various commodities then settled about half of it in Gold. My bet is that us tech is unsustainable and China has already crashed but is hiding it. China and the European Union are failing and may never recover. This would usually be a sign of lower stocks. But he's right, governments everywhere will pump out new fiat until they recover. Any government that allows a deflationary crash will be replaced. So I agree that fiat bad and gold good. I'm not sure about equities. The us seems a lot more practical and competitive than the eu or uk. But it's already priced accordingly. So other than clearing my debts, owning my own home and stacking gold, I'm unsure what to do with the cash reserves.
@ExploringProsperity I replied but the comment vanished. Tldr was which equities or sectors are most likely to survive the next 10 years? I'm already in gold and own my own home with a cash buffer so am looking for some safe stocks.
8:48 Nice shout out to Michael Milken and creating the junk bond market. This is exactly the crossover conversation I’m looking for. Financial repression + non-bank credit creation.
Outstanding interview with insightful questions. Mr. Napier is very well known and has a wealth of real world experience. You brought out the best of him and covered the whole gamut. Thank you 🙏
Thanks for asking. This Channel is a spin-off from my former partners at Markets Policy Partners and was published while I was there. I just ported it to this NEW channel where I will continue to conduct interviews of folks like Russell going forward. Markets Policy Partners is awesome, and they wanted to focus on other business objectives and we are huge fans of each other. They do a weekly discussion of financial markets and government policy that I would highly recommend.
By the way, please let your friends know; I'd love for more people to find our videos! I have a new video coming later this week with Matt Hougan of Bitwise.
@@ExploringProsperity Indeed it will be fresh, couldn't find much from here on TH-cam this summer. Can't wait to hear his take on the economy from an investor's perspective.
Easy to control the velocity of money if your central bank is the only game in town for deposits and they enact consumption policies, but God help us if that’s the world we find ourselves in.
Borrowing money to pay strippers and divorce alimonies, borrowing money to design chips but not to make them, borrowing money to design clothes but not to make them .. thats literally asking to be replaced by a country which seriously applies itself to cost effective mass manufacturing AND has the spare human capacity to learn how to design clothes, ships, chips.
Very interesting concepts- hollowing out. So many people respond to ideas like this... "so why hasn't it blown up already"? The answer is that extremes precede calamity whenever calamity occurs. Could something happen that prevents "calamity"? I believe the answer is "for some." The leveraged folks will struggle when easy money doesn't rescue them.
Ultimately depends on people's belief in Bitcoin long term and whether money keeps flowing into it. Seems to be that it is less useful than gold insofar as gold is more anonymous (i.e. no digital footprint), more widely desired, and more impervious to degradation (v.s. crypto wallet on USB). Ofc the advantages of Bitcoin are secure distance transactions, and you can keep huge amount of value simply in code which is heavy in gold, so perhaps moving across borders in a high regulation environment might be easier. It doesn't feel like Bitcoin is better than gold, in terms of inflation, and I would imagine in the future you could trade gold for Bitcoin at fairly reasonable rates i.e. they would increase in value at a similar rate vs USD/EUR etc
All the same reasons Bitcoin might become less attractive could equally apply to gold e.g. banning/regulating private ownership. Really the issue is going to be, if there is some CBDC, getting those assets into a readily exchangeable currency in a legal way for daily use. It's very unlikely we will be allowed to do most transactions in anything other than the fiat currency, so I think a big consideration is the tax and legal situation of liquidating these assets. Ideally if you get enough of the elites into Bitcoin they will be too self interested to regulate it, as the elites are already invested in gold.
In the UK for instance legal tender gold coins are capital gains tax free, which is going to be huge over decades of high inflation. Imagine your savings are up 500% but you owe 30% of the increase in tax when you sell it. Not fun, so tax situation is important
@@subliminal_donkey Yes true. Highly likely that there will be more demand for Bitcoin. Was with a HNW broker the other day who works for a wirehouse- says 25% of his clients ask about bitcoin and they cannot say anything except take an order. This will be changing quite soon. These wirehouses are the most reputable with HNW clients who outsource investments to them. Until this changes, they cannot recommend Bitcoin or others. When this changes, the wirehouses will have target % owned in each portfolio. Also interesting to remember that 99% of Bitcoin is secondary (not mined new), so 99% of all purchases goes to the seller, so only 1% of cash into Bitcoin comes out of the real economy; 99% goes to the seller.
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES', THE BEST PERFORMING ALGO FUND OF ALL TIME (AVERGE 64%) FOUNDER SAID IN AN INTERVIEW A YEAR OR SO AGO THAT THEIR AVERAGE HOLDING TIME OF HIS FUND WAS 2 DAYS!
Trying to understand his points: - Governants will use Inflatioln to reduce the debt to GDP ratio - Governants will design frameworks to increase inflows in treasuries and fund itself - Will they also implement something to limit ETF Inflows? - Governments will try to keepinflation between 4-6% - only a few assets will perform well after inflation
Governments will have to debase their currencies to pay off debts. The mechanism is to keep rates below inflation at 4% max so as not to “stampede the horses” which means debasing at a faster rate than 4% (eg 7% inflation and 3% rates) angers the population because their money is debasing too quickly. Thank you for your comment.
In my experience, most of them do not believe it is worth their time to spend the amount of time necessary to be neutral. In these professional circles, they are definitely not making fools of themselves to their paying clients; it is still unpopular and somewhat risky to be a Bitcoin believer, and definitely expensive to try to be a Bitcoin evangelist. Chris Wood, another strategist guest of mine, does believe in Bitcoin.
Im going to have to watch this again. Its full of useful info i just cant digest properly today.
Feel free to ask questions about it. If I cannot answer them, I can let you know what Russell's answer is.
In the last few years I sold my bitcoin and traded through various commodities then settled about half of it in Gold. My bet is that us tech is unsustainable and China has already crashed but is hiding it. China and the European Union are failing and may never recover. This would usually be a sign of lower stocks. But he's right, governments everywhere will pump out new fiat until they recover. Any government that allows a deflationary crash will be replaced. So I agree that fiat bad and gold good. I'm not sure about equities. The us seems a lot more practical and competitive than the eu or uk. But it's already priced accordingly. So other than clearing my debts, owning my own home and stacking gold, I'm unsure what to do with the cash reserves.
@ExploringProsperity I replied but the comment vanished. Tldr was which equities or sectors are most likely to survive the next 10 years? I'm already in gold and own my own home with a cash buffer so am looking for some safe stocks.
8:48 Nice shout out to Michael Milken and creating the junk bond market. This is exactly the crossover conversation I’m looking for. Financial repression + non-bank credit creation.
Thank you for listening and commenting.
This is the best interview I’ve heard all year. Russel is absolutely fantastic, and the questions were on point.
Thank you very much.
Outstanding interview with insightful questions. Mr. Napier is very well known and has a wealth of real world experience. You brought out the best of him and covered the whole gamut. Thank you 🙏
Thank you for your kind words and support. Yes he is a titan in the macro business.
this moment will be very memorable for me
Thank you.
Thank you very much to Exploring Prosperity and Mr. Napier! Great insights, very well explained. How can such a great interview have only 166 views?
Thanks for asking. This Channel is a spin-off from my former partners at Markets Policy Partners and was published while I was there. I just ported it to this NEW channel where I will continue to conduct interviews of folks like Russell going forward. Markets Policy Partners is awesome, and they wanted to focus on other business objectives and we are huge fans of each other. They do a weekly discussion of financial markets and government policy that I would highly recommend.
By the way, please let your friends know; I'd love for more people to find our videos! I have a new video coming later this week with Matt Hougan of Bitwise.
Informative, correct and explained in the most simplified manner.
Thank you, I appreciate that.
Exploring prosperity - that's where you learn finance. Great guests.
Thank you, that is what I am trying to do.
Very good video. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Always great to hear updates from him to have a long term perspective.
Please add the links he mentions at the end to the video description. Thank you
Here they are:
russellnapier.co.uk/
www.libraryofmistakes.com/
14:06 the bond vigilantes
Outstanding video
Thank you.
great interview!
Thank you.
A timely listen with the yen pushing 153.65 tonight.
Yes indeed. Thanks for your comment.
Stealing from Old people slowly!
What a great metaphor.
Can you get a recent interview. Thanks.
He and I will be doing it again later this year. He told me he has had much exposure lately and wanted it to be fresher.
@@ExploringProsperity can you please touch on Precious metals and miners. Way to escape the repression for the everyman.
@@ExploringProsperity Indeed it will be fresh, couldn't find much from here on TH-cam this summer. Can't wait to hear his take on the economy from an investor's perspective.
I’m here to check the views, who else?
Thank you for your comment.
Easy to control the velocity of money if your central bank is the only game in town for deposits and they enact consumption policies, but God help us if that’s the world we find ourselves in.
Money that central banks cannot control has just been invented. Good timing for that.
Borrowing money to pay strippers and divorce alimonies, borrowing money to design chips but not to make them, borrowing money to design clothes but not to make them .. thats literally asking to be replaced by a country which seriously applies itself to cost effective mass manufacturing AND has the spare human capacity to learn how to design clothes, ships, chips.
Very interesting concepts- hollowing out. So many people respond to ideas like this... "so why hasn't it blown up already"? The answer is that extremes precede calamity whenever calamity occurs. Could something happen that prevents "calamity"? I believe the answer is "for some." The leveraged folks will struggle when easy money doesn't rescue them.
🔥
Thank you.
With his prediction. I’m surprised he doesn’t think Bitcoin will perform well in a high inflation environment.
He does make the case for Bitcoin well.
Ultimately depends on people's belief in Bitcoin long term and whether money keeps flowing into it. Seems to be that it is less useful than gold insofar as gold is more anonymous (i.e. no digital footprint), more widely desired, and more impervious to degradation (v.s. crypto wallet on USB). Ofc the advantages of Bitcoin are secure distance transactions, and you can keep huge amount of value simply in code which is heavy in gold, so perhaps moving across borders in a high regulation environment might be easier. It doesn't feel like Bitcoin is better than gold, in terms of inflation, and I would imagine in the future you could trade gold for Bitcoin at fairly reasonable rates i.e. they would increase in value at a similar rate vs USD/EUR etc
All the same reasons Bitcoin might become less attractive could equally apply to gold e.g. banning/regulating private ownership. Really the issue is going to be, if there is some CBDC, getting those assets into a readily exchangeable currency in a legal way for daily use. It's very unlikely we will be allowed to do most transactions in anything other than the fiat currency, so I think a big consideration is the tax and legal situation of liquidating these assets. Ideally if you get enough of the elites into Bitcoin they will be too self interested to regulate it, as the elites are already invested in gold.
In the UK for instance legal tender gold coins are capital gains tax free, which is going to be huge over decades of high inflation. Imagine your savings are up 500% but you owe 30% of the increase in tax when you sell it. Not fun, so tax situation is important
@@subliminal_donkey Yes true. Highly likely that there will be more demand for Bitcoin. Was with a HNW broker the other day who works for a wirehouse- says 25% of his clients ask about bitcoin and they cannot say anything except take an order. This will be changing quite soon. These wirehouses are the most reputable with HNW clients who outsource investments to them. Until this changes, they cannot recommend Bitcoin or others. When this changes, the wirehouses will have target % owned in each portfolio. Also interesting to remember that 99% of Bitcoin is secondary (not mined new), so 99% of all purchases goes to the seller, so only 1% of cash into Bitcoin comes out of the real economy; 99% goes to the seller.
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES', THE BEST PERFORMING ALGO FUND OF ALL TIME (AVERGE 64%) FOUNDER SAID IN AN INTERVIEW A YEAR OR SO AGO THAT THEIR AVERAGE HOLDING TIME OF HIS FUND WAS 2 DAYS!
Crazy. Thanks for your comment.
Russell talking about Bitcoin as if the year is 2012.
Understanding gold requires less invested time than Bitcoin does!
Russell is not into speculative assets
Trying to understand his points:
- Governants will use Inflatioln to reduce the debt to GDP ratio
- Governants will design frameworks to increase inflows in treasuries and fund itself
- Will they also implement something to limit ETF Inflows?
- Governments will try to keepinflation between 4-6%
- only a few assets will perform well after inflation
Governments will have to debase their currencies to pay off debts. The mechanism is to keep rates below inflation at 4% max so as not to “stampede the horses” which means debasing at a faster rate than 4% (eg 7% inflation and 3% rates) angers the population because their money is debasing too quickly. Thank you for your comment.
Haters are going to hate.
True. Thanks for your comment.
So enjoyable to watch these so-called experts make fools of themselves with the reality of Bitcoin.
In my experience, most of them do not believe it is worth their time to spend the amount of time necessary to be neutral. In these professional circles, they are definitely not making fools of themselves to their paying clients; it is still unpopular and somewhat risky to be a Bitcoin believer, and definitely expensive to try to be a Bitcoin evangelist. Chris Wood, another strategist guest of mine, does believe in Bitcoin.
this moment will be very memorable for me
Thank you.