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What are the Three Signs of the Bear?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ส.ค. 2024
- There is no denying that the primary trend for the S&P 500 remains bullish into June 2024. But what about the conditions "under the hood" of the major benchmarks? Today we'll highlight three "signs of the bear" we're looking for, which two may have already triggered, and what sort of confirmation could indicate a bearish reversal into the summer.
You should definitely review our recent video on the Hindenburg Omen: • Hindenburg Omen Flashe...
And here's a video explaining our Market Trend Model in a little more detail: • Market Trend Model Tur...
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Dave helps active investors and financial advisors make more informed investment decisions, inject more discipline into their investment process, and enrich relationships with their clients. Feel better about making better decisions!
Dave is the Chief Market Strategist at StockCharts.com, where he helps investors minimize behavioral biases through technical analysis. He is a frequent host on StockCharts TV, and he relates mindfulness techniques to investor decision making in his blog, The Mindful Investor.
He's also President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, a boutique investment research and consulting firm focused on managing risk through market awareness. He combines the strengths of technical analysis, behavioral finance, and data visualization to identify investment opportunities and enrich relationships between advisors and clients.
Dave was previously a Managing Director of Research for Fidelity Investments in Boston, a Past President of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Association, and started in the financial industry just after the March 2000 market top at Bloomberg in New York.
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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice. Some of the links in this description and in the video may be affiliate links, which means you pay nothing more and it helps me to make Market Misbehavior awesome! As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. For full disclaimer, please see our website: www.marketmisb...
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Been missing The Final Bar this week ☹
Needed a break! Back and better than ever on Monday D
@@DKellerCMT No worries, I understand. Thank you for everything you do, Dave!
😊🙏
Have a Blessed week!
HI, Dave; I could not find the Final Bar this week.
Took a much needed break from The Final Bar, which will be back and better than ever on Monday! D
My theory is that the market will dump after the fed pivot. Which will likely be around jul-aug.
That is very much a possibility and would track the last five years with summer top D
No need to apologize for looking for an exit in this market. You are always straightforward, not puffing up your positions like some do and just presenting facts. I've been trading over 39 years and appreciate your unbiased analysis. I've said it before and you andJohn Kosar are probably two of the best for providing analysis that is based in fact and not prejudice one way or the other. Thanks!
Thanks so much for the thoughtful feedback! D
Awesome teaching...I already bought EFT against the market going down ..this FAKE bullrun will end soon..Learned so much from you..BIG Thank you❤❤
Appreciate the comments and the feedback! D
Your work is spot on, blow off top coming sooner than later. Look at the Wilshire 5000 vs GDP 60% above normal average, that says it all. Look out below starting 4 quarter. Love you show!!!
Good call on Wilshire 5K I rarely look at that index D
These divergences between price and A/D line are noteworthy. However, they're moderate divergences. They're not massive divergences that have been building over many months which makes me think that if we get a pullback, it probably will be moderate, too.
Agreed. The fact rates are 5% gives FED room to move. The FED PUT.
Interesting take which I appreciate! Going to be a fascinating summer for the markets... D
During a long trend, there are endless divergence in momentum indicators with fixed lookback period.
That's why divergences for me are a leading indicator. Super important to wait for confirmation! D
Very useful, thanks Dave
Glad you enjoyed this one!! D
Why are people ashamed of being bearish??? The market actually does go down sometimes!!! Shocker. We are living in crazy town . This is arguably the most bearish I could ever be!!! What am I missing
Right on, your not missing anything give it a couple more months!!!
No conviction
I get plenty of questions along the lines of "why are you releasing bearish vids when the market's going up" so I tried to explain exactly why! Proudly bearish! D
Great review, as usual! However, perhaps we are over analysing the markets! If price is > 200 MA = risk on, if not, then risk off. It's almost that simple! You can quote me on this: "nothing good happens below the 200 MA!"
Peter Lynch once said: "Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves." How about more emphasis about what ETF's to invest in, in the intermediate and long term, and forget about the short term moves that doesn't do anyone any good!
Appreciate the feedback, especially channeling Peter Lynch and also the Paul Tudor Jones quote on the 200-day! D
@@DKellerCMT I Believe you are from Seattle. I was just there on vacation. I loved The Museum of Flight (spent all day there), Chihuly glass museum, Snoqualmie falls, Hoh Rain Forest in Olympic National Park and Lake Quinault... All were fabulous!
Very helpful as usual. I'm getting ready to head to California for 2 months for the summer conventions that we attend. It will be weird being in the U.S. during the actual market hours instead of sleeping while the market is open, here in Japan.
Safe travels my friend and enjoy the Pacific time zone! D
Hey Dave. Love your content. I think at some point people should realise looking at the SPX/SPY is misleading. We should solely look at EQUAL WEIGHTED indexes, like RSP…
I would say important to look at both! SPX/SPY because so many assets are tied to that index, and equal-weighted as a better gauge of health of the broader markets. Your point is very well taken! D
@@DKellerCMT 🙏
Thank you.
Thanks so much for watching! D
After reading your article, I signed in to google just to say thank you!😅
What a kind gesture, very much appreciated! D
Good info David. Is there such a thing as a quant model on the Nasdaq 100 / QQQ, that includes data like macro factors ? Miss your Final Bar 😊
Interesting question and not one that comes to mind. The Final Bar back and better than ever on Monday! D
@@DKellerCMT I'm looking forward to that. Burning midnight oil over weekend, looks like Nasdaq is going to make a big move this week, likely Monday? Although with CPI and FOMC announcement on Wednesday that would be more likely
Nice video, Thank you!
Thanks so much for watching! D
Looks like you had a well earned break.
Great break and so good to be back! D
It''s simple - if you wanna be successful, you gotta have to put your "bear glasses" when market goes up and "bull glasses" when market goes down, especially if you're an active (day) trader. Otherwise, you're just retail destined to buy the top and sell the bottom.
YES to what you just said. D
Thank You Sir
Cheers and thanks for watching! D
I expected you to come up with the RSP (equal weighted SPX) to show the divergence compared to the SPX which is striking.
Just discussed in my recent video on Dow Theory! th-cam.com/video/lNZLeDXIoI0/w-d-xo.html D
Why didn't you draw the trend line under the lows from Oct to Apr? 😎
Trendlines can be super subjective, which is one of their strengths also their challenges! D
Dave: The regular viewers who watch you on Market Misbehavior and StockCharts know that you are referring to trend exhaustion. We know that you are not a “PermaBear” (like some of your guests on StockCharts; that will remain unnamed). It is the "Click Bait '' that people do not like. Be well from a cloudy Northeast Ohio!
hahaha thanks for that! Shout out to NE Ohio!! D
Only Jeff could save this market from a bearish reversal into the summer
Not sure anything or anyone could save us from a bearish reversal into the summer hahaha D
You look GREAT without the beard ... hint, hint~ 😎
hahaha you and my wife are in agreement on that point D
Ha! 😂👍 Joys of living in the PNW sharing home with nature 😉 Definitely want to be vigilant in making sure there's nothing of interest for bears hanging around close to home, otherwise they start to get a little too comfortable and eventually bust into the house for a midnight snack!
I thought that fence would keep the bears at bay, and the momma bear literally crushed it like a soda can. Nature is awesome. D
@@DKellerCMT Have to admit, I was a bit surprised to see your fence all bent up like that from a bear too! 😂👍
In a way, I think of black bears like giant raccoons Lol. They're "handy" too! Have you seen them open vehicle doors, to snoop around and get whatever's inside?
Nature is awesome 😊👍
Looking for BUY on Projected CYCLE Low June 17th-20th--28th...and 🤔 more upside...
Well see 👀 😏...
Many ULCC ✈️ should file Chapter 11 in 25'?? Unless Oil 🛢 drops
A lot to unpack in this comment! Not sure about ULCC going under but am reminded of Branson's famous quote: "If you want to become a millionaire, be a billionaire and then start an airline." D
Awesome Video!!! I can tell you watch all the signs!!!
Thanks so much for watching! D