Fundamentals apply only as they relate to higher time frame participants aka large institutional traders like Black Rock, Fidelity, Vanguard. etc. deciding to enter and exit large positions at key price levels. The average day trader need not concern him or herself with that knowledge since the charts on higher time frames (weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly) clearly show where institutional traders apply buying and selling pressure. Markets are in essence controlled by higher time frame participants on time scales that are oblivious to day traders. Day traders see and try to trade effects caused by participants outside of their narrow 1 minute, 2 minute, 5 minute and 15 minute time frames. Which generates a whole lot of confusion and bad trades. Zooming out of course helps a lot but awareness of the situation while zoomed out helps more.
I don't believe in support and resistance. You can plot a line on a random spot, and you'll see it being respected at some point repeatedly. This happens on real charts, and randomly generated charts. I still say that the market is an over-engineered RNG algorithm. A chart driven by random news and billions of participants, or a pseudo random number generator, both produce basically the same results. Our trading strategies are way too primitive to tell the two apart. I don't care if real charts are slightly different, because our trading strategies won't know the difference.
Thank you someone that agrees with me that it's not bloody science. The best thing is to see if price respects a resistance level and if so it's more likely to support it as a future support level. Likewise if it respects that level at least three times in the same time frame. That's basically what people teach. Also make a video on fundimentals. It's probably the hardest and most long term learning investment part of trading and the part people have least understanding of.
Thanks for that, appreciate the feedback! I felt the same way reading Mandelbrot's book. Quick thought: So if a price has respected a level three times in a row, is there a point where in future it becomes less likely to respect it again the next time? (e.g. does it become a "sucker's" level at some point?) Indeed, more of a set of rules of thumb than a science :)
Fundamentals are only new information, they can only be practically when market participants decide to act upon the data. So behavior is much more important than new information
Hello, thank you very much for sharing this valuable information, but is there a program that extracts or helps to extract fractals in the financial markets?
Thanks for that. I tend to do processing myself of the raw data, so I can't really recommend a program as I don't really use them. I think it also depends on what you want in terms of extracting fractals -- I think some standard programs say they do fractals, but they probably analyze fractals in some really narrow sense. Sorry I can't be of more help!
I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?
3:25 you say looking at chart of past price behavior might give you some idea. then at 6:11 you say the fluctuations are not directly dependent on any past levels. Don't get me wrong, interesting concepts but seems contradictory.
Hee hee good comment. To a degree this is actually two contradictory ways of thinking about price fluctuations. But they are reconciled a little by the fact that I'm really mean these two different mechanisms tend to apply on different scales - in short timeframes the fluctuations and more fractal-like, so less likely to have any “special” scale reflecting support and resistance levels, whereas for longer time scales, the price pattern is influenced more by fundamentals, including potentially previous price levels at which it has traded. So one explanation is based on human psychology (longer time scales), and the other the statistical properties of financial market data (shorter time scales). I’ll have to make a video to dig into this more at some point!
Its an art and bill williams made this art so beautifully scientific that i enjoy, trading with it , i strongly suggest you learn his approach. Ita totally working. Remember that to be profitable , your trading system ( including yourself and decisions you make must be profitable ) your collective decisions makes you a professional trader.
Great comment - that's a really good point, and I do agree that if you find something that works for you that's a great thing. The point I'm mainly trying to make is the same one as you - it's an art and it's not guaranteed to work all the time, so be aware of when and why it might not work. Thanks again!
"Fractal Manhattan"; in reality there is a fundamental reason for fractals to repeat themselves; fractals in their very nature are the building blocks for creation of the fabric of market itself; its structural framework. fractals are always the same; create the same multidimensional constructs consisting of the same hierarchical structures in every financial market, in every time frame, in every single financial chart. what actually throws you off is that you erroneously see markets' structures as the fractals themselves; you connect support and resistance levels on a fractal and not structural level; thus exposing yourself to a misconception and confusion as to the real importance of every single support and resistance and their inherent relationship to each other; every support and resistance level on any chart in any timeframe is related to each other on a structural level and cannot be disregarded; the latter fallacy is what prompts your inability to see clearly defined trends on small time frames ( even 1 tick or 1second charts) once you utilize support/resistance on structural as opposed to fractal levels, they become extremely easy to use; bring clarity and stability to what most people consider chaotic nature of the markets; nothing could be further from the truth.
Tienes un error en el uso e interpretación de los fractales. Por lo que veo en el video esperas que exista una correlación matemática perfecta entre fractales a diferentes escalas de tiempo, esperas ver la misma figura fractal a diferentes temporalidades de tiempo, sin embargo eso NO es posible por que el mercado financiero es un sistema NO lineal dinámico, y partiendo de esto NO espere que exista correlación exacta. Sin embargo si puedes determinar tendencia de mediano y largo plazo. y en periodos de tiempo mas cortos si puedes usar fractales para tratar de predecir un comportamiento futuro del precio. debes analizar un periodo de tiempo corto identificar el periodo más reciente y compararlo VS un periodo anterior, si existe "similitud fractal" entonces podrías proyectar ese fractal a futuro (en corto plazo). Yo lo veo como una mira de un avión de combate moderno, si metes en la mira un objetivo, y puedes determinar distancia y dirección, entonces puedes programar un cohete que lo alcance el un lugar futuro. exactamente lo mismo usas para disenar tu pronostico fractal..
Thanks! Actually I think I agree with you - I'm not suggesting you can use fractals for prediction, but rather to understand the nature of financial market fluctuations. Sorry if I gave a wrong impression!
Fundamentals apply only as they relate to higher time frame participants aka large institutional traders like Black Rock, Fidelity, Vanguard. etc. deciding to enter and exit large positions at key price levels. The average day trader need not concern him or herself with that knowledge since the charts on higher time frames (weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly) clearly show where institutional traders apply buying and selling pressure. Markets are in essence controlled by higher time frame participants on time scales that are oblivious to day traders. Day traders see and try to trade effects caused by participants outside of their narrow 1 minute, 2 minute, 5 minute and 15 minute time frames. Which generates a whole lot of confusion and bad trades. Zooming out of course helps a lot but awareness of the situation while zoomed out helps more.
I don't believe in support and resistance. You can plot a line on a random spot, and you'll see it being respected at some point repeatedly. This happens on real charts, and randomly generated charts. I still say that the market is an over-engineered RNG algorithm. A chart driven by random news and billions of participants, or a pseudo random number generator, both produce basically the same results. Our trading strategies are way too primitive to tell the two apart. I don't care if real charts are slightly different, because our trading strategies won't know the difference.
Their is more easy way 😉
Thank you someone that agrees with me that it's not bloody science. The best thing is to see if price respects a resistance level and if so it's more likely to support it as a future support level. Likewise if it respects that level at least three times in the same time frame. That's basically what people teach. Also make a video on fundimentals. It's probably the hardest and most long term learning investment part of trading and the part people have least understanding of.
Thanks for that, appreciate the feedback! I felt the same way reading Mandelbrot's book. Quick thought: So if a price has respected a level three times in a row, is there a point where in future it becomes less likely to respect it again the next time? (e.g. does it become a "sucker's" level at some point?) Indeed, more of a set of rules of thumb than a science :)
Fundamentals are only new information, they can only be practically when market participants decide to act upon the data. So behavior is much more important than new information
Interesting!!
Hello, thank you very much for sharing this valuable information, but is there a program that extracts or helps to extract fractals in the financial markets?
Thanks for that. I tend to do processing myself of the raw data, so I can't really recommend a program as I don't really use them. I think it also depends on what you want in terms of extracting fractals -- I think some standard programs say they do fractals, but they probably analyze fractals in some really narrow sense. Sorry I can't be of more help!
Very good. I need more video by fractal analysis
Thank you
I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?
This vid has nothing to do with fractals right?
Thank you sir for sharing 🙏.
You're welcome!
3:25 you say looking at chart of past price behavior might give you some idea. then at 6:11 you say the fluctuations are not directly dependent on any past levels. Don't get me wrong, interesting concepts but seems contradictory.
Hee hee good comment. To a degree this is actually two contradictory ways of thinking about price fluctuations. But they are reconciled a little by the fact that I'm really mean these two different mechanisms tend to apply on different scales - in short timeframes the fluctuations and more fractal-like, so less likely to have any “special” scale reflecting support and resistance levels, whereas for longer time scales, the price pattern is influenced more by fundamentals, including potentially previous price levels at which it has traded. So one explanation is based on human psychology (longer time scales), and the other the statistical properties of financial market data (shorter time scales). I’ll have to make a video to dig into this more at some point!
@@fractalmanhattan thanks, conceptually it makes sense. between this an how I become profitable though, long way to go lol
Its an art and bill williams made this art so beautifully scientific that i enjoy, trading with it , i strongly suggest you learn his approach. Ita totally working. Remember that to be profitable , your trading system ( including yourself and decisions you make must be profitable ) your collective decisions makes you a professional trader.
Great comment - that's a really good point, and I do agree that if you find something that works for you that's a great thing. The point I'm mainly trying to make is the same one as you - it's an art and it's not guaranteed to work all the time, so be aware of when and why it might not work. Thanks again!
"Fractal Manhattan"; in reality there is a fundamental reason for fractals to repeat themselves; fractals in their very nature are the building blocks for creation of the fabric of market itself; its structural framework. fractals are always the same; create the same multidimensional constructs consisting of the same hierarchical structures in every financial market, in every time frame, in every single financial chart. what actually throws you off is that you erroneously see markets' structures as the fractals themselves; you connect support and resistance levels on a fractal and not structural level; thus exposing yourself to a misconception and confusion as to the real importance of every single support and resistance and their inherent relationship to each other; every support and resistance level on any chart in any timeframe is related to each other on a structural level and cannot be disregarded; the latter fallacy is what prompts your inability to see clearly defined trends on small time frames ( even 1 tick or 1second charts) once you utilize support/resistance on structural as opposed to fractal levels, they become extremely easy to use; bring clarity and stability to what most people consider chaotic nature of the markets; nothing could be further from the truth.
Tienes un error en el uso e interpretación de los fractales. Por lo que veo en el video esperas que exista una correlación matemática perfecta entre fractales a diferentes escalas de tiempo, esperas ver la misma figura fractal a diferentes temporalidades de tiempo, sin embargo eso NO es posible por que el mercado financiero es un sistema NO lineal dinámico, y partiendo de esto NO espere que exista correlación exacta. Sin embargo si puedes determinar tendencia de mediano y largo plazo. y en periodos de tiempo mas cortos si puedes usar fractales para tratar de predecir un comportamiento futuro del precio. debes analizar un periodo de tiempo corto identificar el periodo más reciente y compararlo VS un periodo anterior, si existe "similitud fractal" entonces podrías proyectar ese fractal a futuro (en corto plazo). Yo lo veo como una mira de un avión de combate moderno, si metes en la mira un objetivo, y puedes determinar distancia y dirección, entonces puedes programar un cohete que lo alcance el un lugar futuro. exactamente lo mismo usas para disenar tu pronostico fractal..
Thanks! Actually I think I agree with you - I'm not suggesting you can use fractals for prediction, but rather to understand the nature of financial market fluctuations. Sorry if I gave a wrong impression!