BREAKING: Tesla ROBOTAXI Unveil is OFFICIAL.
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 เม.ย. 2024
- The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock.
Nothing in my content constitutes financial or investment advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
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#tesla #teslafsd #fsd #cyberthursday #Cyberbeast #elonmusk #teslanews - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
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Just Uber drove a lady, 78 years old, to Detroit which is a 2 hour drive. FSD actually did the majority of the driving. She never knew. But she learned a lot about Tesla, self driving cars, a car with no engine or gas. 😂
I am 78, but being a male interested in Tesla I personally feel version 12.3.3 will actually save lives. Unless people keep shutting it off when encountering pedestrians.
8 years, 8 cameras, and then robotaxi unveil on 8/8
8/8 is considered lucky in Asia
@@erikmulder1969 AN EIGHT BALL IS NOW IN ORDER 🤣😵💫👃👃👃👃
Clever, it is.
Elon sure does love number gags. At this stage, it’s almost impossible to regard the date as coincidence.
88 is also beloved by nazis.
Here we go… Numerology BS
I bought that mf dip at $161! Let’s gooooo! To the moon!
Grats brother….
It will crash once robotaxi are "revealed"
Good job . but its going down more !
This won’t be a quick turnaround, be patient.
@@hussainalmomen3234 Tesla stock would drop 10% on developing the cure for cancer.
"How the turntables" - Michael Scott! Great Scott!!! :P
Isn’t what Reuters did technically a crime?!
Not necessarily. Both news could be correct. There is no $25,000 compact car. The robotaxi could cost significantly more.
the SEC & DOJ should Investigate Reuters for wire Fraud.
At minimum potential stock manipulation
It’s also possible Tesla leaked the “news” to see who traitors are. A tactic Tesla has used before.
@markplott4820 Yup. What needs investigating is if large shorts were initiated before or on the Reuters information and who it was, and what association.
Farzad you make it fun . Enjoy watching. Go Tesla
I hope Robotaxi has subscription service. Start at yearly premiums in several different segments. The lowest cost would be 12,000 miles a year and then something like 20k, 30k and then a premium service that would be the most expensive offering unlimited miles per year.
If that happens I imagine the cost of transportation would be substantially reduced. No more insurance. No more maintenance. No more gas or charging expenses. Incurring no risk outside of covering the cost of damaging or soiling the interior of the vehicle in some way.
I would also be willing to confidently bet that after a generation or two there would be significantly less traffic. Furthermore, after a decade or two when most vehicles are equally capable that they would all be communicating in real time with each other details about traffic, road conditions, proximity to each other, etc and there would be no need for lights or stop signs or anything like that. Traffic would essentially be a living organism or brain. The amount of data it could acquire would be insane to. About people and the world around the road.
That last part is creepy though.
Sawyer should be doing Teslas PR.
Just because he writes about a Robotaxi unveil doesn’t mean the low cost car isn’t also coming.
It does though. There was a Reuters article. Not saying it‘s not coming, but it won‘t be in the next years. Which is a very risky move. Makes me a bit anxious as an investor, but then again also a bit excited
@@JakeyCroft Elon tweeted that Reuters are lying.
@@slyktech1860 Yes, but he didn’t say which part was incorrect, which makes me think that model 2 is likely at the very least delayed
Why would it be delayed when the French in Europe are coming out with sub 25k euro cars later this year… Admittedly they are smaller than what Tesla makes and they suck more, but it is entirely possible for Tesla to build a 25k car… maybe not outright profitably, they will sell it fir 28k or 30 at first but still. It is not some kind of a pie in the sky goal, pretty much everyone at least in Europe is working on sub 25 k cars, yes, pretty much all (except Chinese) plan them smaller than what Tesla wants to build but it is not some kind of an impossible goal for late 2025, early 2026
@@lkrnpkSo their 25k car will cost 28 or 30k? Got it.
FSD really has gotten pretty good, today it was taking me through city streets, freeways, weird construction zones without fail. Only complaints are it kinda freaks out in parking lots and the speed limit adjustment seems to have a mind of it's own, sometimes it will see an unused construction speed limit or something and suddenly you're doing 30 on the highway. All in all though it's pretty cool, the possibilities for the elderly alone are just mind-blowing, imagine the first generation of elderly that never have to give up driving.
Yep, I am one of those, I got my model Y.
@@tedmoss me too
When I think about the use case for robotaxi, over 50% of the rides I would want don’t even include me in the car.
Ex: I need to drop off a shirt at the dry cleaner. “Robotaxi, go drive my clothes to the dry cleaner”
Ex: Robotaxi, drop off my mail packages at the UPS store.
Ex: Robotaxi, go pick up my groceries and bring them to my house.
Many of these everyday examples, for me, don’t even involve me in the car. I feel like most people talk about robotaxi means you don’t have to pay attention in the car, for me, I prefer to not even be in the car.
Good stuff and well put together brother!
30:00 right now it is so much better that it has become relaxing, I was never relaxed on city streets with v11
But all your testing has brought us to this, thanks!
My gut for a long time now has been that the timing of the compact, Mexico, fsd, and the bot were all so close that it just made more sense to do it all together at the same time when all 4 were ready.
This is excellent; however, we know there is usually a significant lag between product announcement and product to market.
Yep, they announced FSD in 2016. That is 8 years of bringing the product to market.
Yes. this comment needs more thumbs up. I'm very afraid that a lot of new investors might FOMO into tesla right now and then experience a huge loss on April 17 when Q1 earnings drop. Please...everyone...save your cash for April 17th....or DCA from that date onwards.
@@davidbeppler3032 This is silly, you mean you didn't know it was beta (in development)?
BreakThru technology is guesswork to be solved. Nobody in the industry did even tried it. They don't have the guts. You better be wrong with the timeline, then doing nothing. And to be honest this version FSD V12.x finally shows the end of the tunnel for both for Robots (production) and Cars (Transport and Safety). This will drastically change the world in the next 5 to 10 years. That is my believe.
Excellent analysis brother! Thanks 👍👍👍👍
Excellent thought process. Thank you Farzad!😊
Great content…so appreciate and thank you.
Great analysis!!!
I think you're spot on Farzad 🎯
your robotaxi, is really me sitting at home steering your car on my x box....REALTALK
Love the channel keep it up ❤
Thank you for your thoughts farzad and proving theses expedited information
Great Job Farzad. Your objective overview of all TSLA products and offerings is credit worthy. You put emotions aside and useful to TSLA users and investors. Keep up the good work. I wish your channel all the success. Keep up the good work.
People forget, robotaxi using the existing FSD is not possible. FSD need to solve severe weather problems. Currently in sudden bad weather, FSD simply stop working. Happen to me in Canada with just few flurries of snow falling. As Canadian in Quebec, sudden severe weather change happen more frequently than US states, FSD is definitely not ready.
My take on V12.3:
The Positive- It's better than I thought it would be a year ago. It holds the lane pretty well. It changes lanes nicely most of the time. My wife likes the way it drives (yay for her).
The Negative:
* It doesn't hold the lane as well as it should. Come on, it's computer controlled and has 8 cameras... it should be dead center of the lane every second, but it'sfar from it. In fact, it should compensate slightly away from other cars like I do, so there's no accidental bumping while going down a 2-4 lane roads.
* It drives like a grandma even in the aggressive mode. I hit the petal about 20 times during a 10 mile trip, and I'm not a crazy driver, and I'm 70.
* It tried to turn into on coming traffic on the first when I exited a highway. The lanes were well marked, so there was no excuse.
* The speed control needs a lot of work. It's all over the map. There's a 40 speed limit near my house, but the display shows 25 mph.
If they go for steer by wire, you don't need to remove the steering wheel, you can just disabled the control 😊 Also wireless charging can actually be just about as efficient apparently
Will you explain to the cop.
Let’s say I get in the taxi drunk, if there is a steering wheel it’s not good.
How will the cop know the wheel was disengaged ? What about the 13 year old going to school?
Currently 7-9% loss on wireless.
@@whowhy9023 WiTricity seems to suggest at least their charging is as efficient as a cable (they would say that, though). Cables are also far from lossless.
8/8? Steering wheel? Where we’re going we don’t need steering wheels…
as seen in the 1993 Stallone movie, *Demolition Man*
also, Archer and eHang drone taxi already exists..
If you're on the same road as my family, you damn well do. And you better know how to and be able to DRIVE.
With FSD requiring HANDS on Wheel ... might be premature to remove that wheel.
@@dertythegrower No, those had steering wheels. They could ALSO drive themselves.
As always, you nailed it.
Cheers Farzad👍
Farzad the office reference made my day !
FARZAD, love the passion!!! Keep it up man
I think self driving in one of the 2 toughest cities, NY and Philadelphia, would give everyone an idea on how good self driving is.
On operating Full Self Driving, the band The Doors said it best on their 1970 Roadhouse Blues song “Keep your eyes on the road and your hand upon the wheel” 👊
Great assessment!!! I think you’re on the money.
Of course Tesla will be running its own fleet of Robotaxis. They don't allow anyone else to service their cars, so why would you say they'll outsource the maintenance/cleaning of the Robotaxis? The revenue potential running their own fleet is far too large for them to just outsource all of it. They will still allow owners of FSD-equipped cars to participate in the fleet, and they'll share the revenues, and they'll likely allow people/companies to buy the new Robotaxi vehicles for use in the Robotaxi network, and again share the revenuse.
The biggest problem with v12.3.3 is it fails to follow the route. It knows it is to exit the highway, even signals, but then doesn't take the ramp. It also can change lanes into a turn only lane instead of going straight. There seems to be a need for some planning logic between the map routing and the immediate controls being trained via video. This has been my experience with the latest version here in Calgary Canada, maybe it is better in the US?
I love the idea of customization of the robotaxi. I could see a "Meeting/Friends" version with a circle of seats facing each other. Parents can have the "Kids/Fun" taxi where it picks them up and has a screen with a movie and snacks. Even prostitutes can have the "Sexy" taxi with a bed.
The unveiling could be a Model 2/Robo taxi with a steering wheel that can be disabled. Easy to do because it is steer-by-wire. This would also reconcile the other news that came out about Model 2 being scrapped and Elon denying it. The truth may be he is killing two birds with one stone in that the Model 2 is also the Robotaxi.
I agree. I can't see installing a steering wheel being a cost prohibitor if it can be connected or disconected.
There's one potential market for the robotaxi that you didn't mention-- the exburbs where no public transportation is available.
question; pricing model for model 2 with FSD and Tesla insurance?
Great video.
The worst part still is the speed identification. Yesterday it pulled out of parking lot onto a street at 15 mph where speed limit is 40. It did drive for a quarter mile at that speed until it encountered a speed limit sign.
I thought it was suppose to have started in 2020
The intersection red/green light argument is good.
Danke!
Elon should appriciate someone like you,Mr.Monro and others who help to fight for Tesla.
I will give you a mindblowing thought. The cyber truck platform was the robotaxi all along. The cybertruck was a complete fake out, a ruse. A slight of hand distraction.
The cybertruck platform has all wheel steering and good height from the ground, easy to get into from a curb after a druked night at the club. The top body configuration will be swapped out for a new cab design, that has seats that face each other with gull wing doors.
Why didn’t they take the Waymo path ? Launch a limited robo taxi in big cities to promote the product.
Because Waymo has lost $10 billion dollars?
because tesla is still level 2. quite honestly no one even know if waymo is even working or have a human assistant driving it remotely every time it fail. if you really believe tesla car can drive itself without crashing then never intervene when something go wrong.
Napping in a taxi implies eventual rolling bedroom/SleepUtilityVehicles. I’d “drive” from Florida to California instead of flying or taking a train.
Autonomous motor home? Yes! Bathroom, bed, snacks, big picture windows.
Imagine in a camper van!
Now that would be cool… but we already have these things called trains…
30:04 - true, but it’s much more than that: FSD is worth its weight in gold on the long, boring highway drives - as you said, but also in the dangerous bumper-to-bumper traffic. Everything in between is the FUN drive so we take over … mostly (eg scenic, winding, country roads)
He said 8/8. Did not mention which year
Probably 8/8 2028 😂
@@TheDrpepper1985 😀
😂
An eight sideways looks like the symbol for infinity. Month and year are both an infinite wait.
Didn't he add Year of the Dragon?
I seriously doubt that Tesla will sell the Robotaxi vehicle to the public. They may sell it or lease it to fleet operators like Hertz or Uber. This is why there are at least two new generation vehicles, the $25 EV that will be for sale to the public and the Robotaxi EV that Tesla will own and use for their Robotaxi service. Why would Tesla sell a Robotaxi EV when they can generate $30k to $50k recurring annual revenue/profit from a Tesla owned Robotaxi vehicle compared to a onetime $5k or 20% margin on the sale of a $25k vehicle?
Yeah it makes no sense for them to even SELL robo taxis. Why not just become a robo taxi service themselves? Screw even selling teslas at that point. Might as well just put Uber out of biz.
I like your prediction hat
But the competition's coming! heeheeeeee
Your heeheee sounds like they're falling off a cliff? lol
Where's the Tesla killer? hahahaha
Doesn't RT require we at L5?
"...a bus in the sky like Spirit." 😂😂🤣
How are they going to do that without reverse in block situation ?
Do you really think they won’t address the reverse issue before August?
I like the way in which Tesla is remorselessly finding a way forward towards robot taxi. It will take decades or two to become prevalent.
The Turing test, originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing in 1950, is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human.
Robotaxi moving between people that cannot even comprehend that a human being is not driving, FSD has actually passed the Turing test.
Imagine combing this with xAi LLM.
AGI is here sooner than expected!!
The way to look at the progress of FSD (IMO) is that the angle of the slope of improvements has improved. Why? The switch to E2E architecture switches the rate of improvement more towards compute-dependent than it was before with heuristic code. This coupled with the announcement from Elon that Tesla no longer is compute constrained will decrease the time between updates going forward. It is no coincidence that Elon announced Robotaxi-reveal now so close after the above puzzle-pieces has fallen in to place.
This Robotaxi unveiling will probably not affect the stock price meaningfully. There have been several car companies in the past that already did their "unveils self-driving taxi/car without steering wheels" before.
" Baidu unveils self-driving taxi without steering wheel"
"Watch GM Unveil an Autonomous Car With No Steering Wheel"
"Cruise unveils steering wheel-less car"
Not a reason to FOMO in yet.
Had several bad experiences with fsd today unfortunately😞
The 25k was the risk reduction option on that small car platform if FSD was delayed.
Great great video !!!!!!
I’m not sure there should be a specific hardware (physical car) for the “robot taxi”. It is a software condition (FSD) and it can be for any car. Maybe the passenger experience can be more comfortable and relax, like a stretch limo, but I don’t see a specific robotaxi car design as a necessity. In other words, not much to reveal on 8.8.
Unless it needs lidar and radar or some extra compute. Seems unlikely but its how waymo got their
I still think most people want to own their own cars, you need a taxi you get an Uber, fsd years away from being licensed, Iv got a horrible feeling Reuters is correct and this is musk scrambling something together.
Agree, it makes sense. The $25k car and Robo Taxis will both be wireless charging. "No part is the best part" and " No process is the best process". Why force people into the weather to plug in when they can drive over a charge point and stay in the comfort of their car to charge.
8 months already 😮 you jave to share the moment Mr FARZAD and Mrs PRODUCER. 🎉
What I'm not seeing anywhere in the EV transition discussion is the extent to which taxis are transitioning to EV. About 20 years ago a lot went hybrid. The costs of running an EV should make it the only logical choice for taxi use. I have noticed more Tesla taxis (including Ubers). The main ride hailing companies must have this data, the speed of that transition must surely be faster than the consumer market.
Teslas need USS back or better floor sensors. FSD drives straight through potholes and has issues detection bike lane cement dividers in chicago
Very exciting news!
A mile-based pricing strategy would appeal primarily to people for whom city driving is their major use case... At $0.25 per mile, a 40 mi average per weekday (800 miles) would be the break-even point between a by-the-mile contract for FSD usage and a flat $200 FSD monthly subscription. Regular road trips over 800 mi would obviously justify a subscription, whereas the occasional $1,000 mile road trip would be worth spending the extra 50 bucks for the extra 200 mi over the break-even point on the per mile plan if their normal monthly mileage averaged closer to 20 miles a day. The per-mile rate would be even more enticing if it was only activated for the miles it was actually driving the car...
Thank you for your TH-cam content, btw :) I always appreciate it!
Going to be waiting for this all damn summer.
You’re going to be waiting a lot longer than that.
Are you still waiting for the 700 mph hyperloop?
Most states already allow robotaxi business.
Best thing for autonomous cars is delievery. You dont need huge loading space and delievery fleet. Just enter address and it goes.
In Phoenix?
They might not need to remove wheel and pedals if the current vehicles were built with some foresight.
Tesla will be in the Robotaxi game as Competition.This helps to kickstart the New commute age as cheaply as is viable
For gen 3 use the same camera hardware and use current best version of FSD as it exists… then add side looking camera left and right bumper operating in shadow until they gather enough data to make them part of FSD.
What is shown is one thing. What is ramped on the platform is another.
Imagine the day when hotels will have fleets of self driving cars that will take their guests to museums, parks, restaurants and airports as part of the hotel service experience. That would be so cool!
Elon’s brother showed how the yoke and pedals fold and disappear into the dash and floor. Can be brought back with a click.
I got 5 TSLa at 163 thanks reuters
Someone else mentioned a video game and it occurs to me that letting people drive the car from their home game console and letting them get paid some small amount like $0.20/mile and the passenger in the car relaxes. The money paid to the console driver depends on their success or failure. This will incentivize home drivers to follow rules and safety standards.
I can see unveil a minimum of 3 cars or more built on the same platform. RoboTaxi, 25k car and a MiniVan for Boring Company or for Group travel
Have you looked into the charging network in NY? It will cost way more money to build taxi network in NY. It will cost so much money not sure it's worth it in the long run.
Had to leave listening to Herbert’s call due to Kevin monopolizing things. Thanks for your fair commentary. Love it
LOL. That's where I left too. Not more because I saw Farzad had a video up
I think it’s super clear on design - the robo-taxi will look similar to the design from the book: 2 passenger- (most Ubers is 1-2 people) no wheel with lots of rear storage and a frunk
The “model -2” will be on the same platform but will be more of a compact suv- like a bigger Kia soul - remember the teaser image from 2023 q1 earnings?
He said “we are working on 2 vehicles” so many times
5/8 of what year? I have tested FSD and it’s not near Robotaxi level except in limited applications, such as WayMo..
What version are you using? My 12.3.3 is already ~90% robotaxi level, if not more. I have driven my car for about 5 minutes in the last week, and we have done over 700 miles in that time. FSD did the rest. I have had more disengagements because I accidentally disengaged during that time (turn the steering wheel too hard when trying to signal I was still paying attention, accidentally touched the brakes while leaning forward, etc.) than because the FSD screwed up. And of the disengagements I had, ~85% were the nav system screwing up and trying to direct it to take a route that didn't work (fence blocking the road out of a park, tried to direct it into the exit of a post office, missed the correct turn and directed it to a dead end, etc. - but that's not the FSD driving AI's fault, it means the map data needs more resolution), one was a freak of nature where two trains came almost back to back in the middle of a roundabout and confused it as we were passing under the gate that started lowering a second time, and one time it got confused because the lights were offset to the road markings because my city hires sleeping 3rd graders to do road planning and construction. In every case where I have had to disengage for a good reason, it would have likely also confused a human who had their license for less than a year or two. It's very close, and they are on an exponential improvement path right now.
Your anecdote isn’t scientific bro
My predictions for Tesla Robotaxi: Made of exo skeleton aluminum of some other material, no fingerprints - No paint, easy wrap - of course FSD - wireless induction charging because Optimus not available yet to plug in cars for charging - not for long distance driving local only - everything else Farzad said and people buying the drivable version will be able to add to Robotaxi network
PS: wireless charging tech is about 95-98% efficient now so not very much loss or will not take that much longer to charge
Dammn time to buy Tesla stock now!!!😮😮😮
Reuters could be correct in this way; the robo-taxi is so good that people stop buying cars altogether and just call a taxi. This will push all other car companies toward bankruptcy.
I gave u a like just for the The Office reference haha
Robo Taxi? What about AP and FSD for CyberTruck. That should be first priority right now.
How will the stock react?
Buy TSLA in chunks: some today and more every 5 - 10 percent price change until you are fully invested.
SEC needs to investigate the Reuter article
First FSD is useless in Dark, second Last night my Rubbish/Trash green Bin was out and it can’t see it in dark and was going to smash in to it , I had to push the brake. I don’t see FSD as alternative to Human drivers, it just a good cruise control. It can’t drive in Rain or Dark SIMPLE.
Yeah it’s better than it was but still not good. The nagging is out of control too
5 more years of chip processing power growth, a breakthrough from LLMs to AGI and then FSD will be ready. 2030 is the paradigm shift.
The tech will get there but I fear bloodshed in between
My guess is that they will unveil the robotaxi and the compact. They will be produced in the same “line”, so the slow ramp up of the robotaxi will not be an issue
How will robotaxis charge? Have they been developing proximity charging?
Wireless charging
About a year ago we saw a "leak" from Tesla with Franz showing an incomplete mockup of the new car. A drawing, in the same video, showed a different form factor. One for Model 2 and one for Robotaxi?