Superintelligence Will Impact the World by 2027
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024
- Brian Wang and Randy Kirk talk about superintelligence and what will happen to our world.
Ilya Sutskever, X-Chief Scientist at OpenAI has created a new startup Safe Superintelligence. Ilya was the Chief Scientist at OpenAI and enabled OpenAI to become the leader in Artificial Intelligence. Sutskever has made several major contributions to the field of deep learning. He is notably the co-inventor, with Alex Krizhevsky and Geoffrey Hinton, of AlexNet, a convolutional neural network. From November to December 2012, Sutskever spent about two months as a postdoc with Andrew Ng at Stanford University. He then returned to the University of Toronto and joined Hinton’s new research company DNNResearch, a spinoff of Hinton’s research group. Four months later, in March 2013, Google acquired DNNResearch and hired Sutskever as a research scientist at Google Brain. He was peronally recruited to OpenAI by Elon Musk in 2015.
Ilya likely is well positioned and well informed to determine that Superintelligence is achievable and he likely has a clear plan for doing it. The questions are when will he do it? Will it be ahead of OpenAI, Meta, Google, Amazon and Tesla/XAI, Anthropic, Chinese AI companies ?
Most of the major AI teams seem to have gotten to OpenAI GPT4-level AI systems within about one year of the leader.
Safe Superintelligence is going to focus completely on creating intelligence beyond human intelligence. Ilya believes this will be possible in a relatively short amount of time with a small team.
If all of the competing AI teams get there within a year of each other then what will that mean?
If all of the teams get there within a year of each other then what will that mean?
If all major AI teams make huge AI advances then it will be a world with robotaxi, advanced humanoid robots and superintelligence and increasing amounts of AI.
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While economic predictions are interesting, these considerations pale in comparison to the interest I have in human health, aging, a possible restorative discoveries. Still, it’s nice to hear men my age discussing it.
It'll be so amazing, we will be able to heal anyone hopefully.
I share the CURIOSITY about super intelligent sentient A.I. and A.G.I., I'm aware of the possible dangers but just as equally INTRIGUED by how smart and sentient A.I. and A.G.I. can potentially develop. Naive perhaps but it's the truth
My feelings too.
Love you guys! Dudes, imagine context flipping between building out the timelines of superintelligence, humanoid robots, space travel, planetary colonization, and advanced mobility, and juggling those. The mental switch flipping in terms of the scale involved is just on a whole other level. Elon is the ultimate multi tasker.
This is insane
We are still far from ASI.
Gpt4 is smarter then most people 😄
Ilya says it’s within “reach” several OpenAI experts say it’s 1 year after AGI. Hundreds of billions of dollars , building project Stargate , serious competition for first to AGI/ASI across the world , that combination brings us much closer than before. If it was at a linear rate going to be 2045, could be 15+ years sooner if we really have exponential technology or even just a couple major breakthroughs.
Could be some algorithm that doesn’t require as much compute either. Like they made some chips 500 times faster than normal chips meant for LLM/AI architectures. Can support several trillion parameters and custom chips will exist for AGI or ASI or even just stronger models in the future. Also the value of ASI can’t be expressed with money, governments could spend trillions or just literally not care about driving the country into an unprecedented debt if they get the compute necessary to rule the world. Like if AGI is achieved internally and the government is monitoring it, everything would change.
Be honest we all don’t know when or if. Anyone who says they know the future is lying.
what is that ur drinking brian..looks like cucumber water...nice interview btw. investments into GAA transistors is why ASI will come soon.
GPT4 Chatbot 2022
GPT5 Agent 2024
GPT6 AGI 2026
GPT7 is the beginning of ASI 2028
sounds pretty accurate, and of course they (open ai) won't be alone. Claude 3.5 is better then GPT-4o. I disagree on the winner take all that most experts think. I think we'll have 6-ish companies with great AI, all getting massive cashflows.
Ummm gpt5 isn't coming out until 2025. Unless this is an internal thing.
AGI models:
Claude 5 Opus
Gemini 4
GPT 6
ASI
“ClaueminiPT”
Because ASI exists in all forms throughout the internet and could be optimized in all sizes and forms. Might even exist in a lightbulb or your toaster! 😮
You’re good at counting. Keep it up!
Another method to plausibly transform ambient heat into electricity with equivalent cooling essentally consists of two electrodes closely face to face (~1 micrometer) in a vacuum wired to an external electrical load. The face of the [Emitter] electrode is covered with a uniform array of LaB6 tipped small diameter carbon nanotubes grown straight out. The face of the [Absorber] electrode is covered with small scale graphine flake char. [Rice U 2014]
Thermal energy mobilized unattached electrons will tend to free themselves outward from the emitter tips and drift at ~1 million meters / second @ 25 millivolts (thermal electron energy @ 20 C) to the absorber which tends to collect them.
A negative charge accumulates on the absorber. This repels oncoming electrons slowing their forward drift, cooling them. The absorber electrode charge is simultaneously the repelling cooling and the external electrical load voltage. The drift current and external wire route current are the same. The DC electrical power consumed by the electrical load depends on the load resistance. Thermal energy absorption always equals the electrical yield.
Wire resistance is a practical loss not a true loss so lt is overcome by added device output. Extra cooling then balances the heat given off by the wire loss. The performance of the device is expected to be modest in the beginning but improve rapidly. Even early devices are expected to last a long time. There is little place for obsolence if the first installed device works adequately. They will withstand being short circuited indefinately up to an electromigration limit.
《 Arrays of nanodiodes promise full conservation of energy》
A simple rectifier crystal can, iust short of a replicatable long term demonstration of a powerful prototype, almost certainly filter the random thermal motion of electrons or discrete positive charged voids called holes so the electric current flowing in one direction predominates. At low system voltage a filtrate of one polarity predominates only a little but there is always usable electrical power derived from the source, which is Johnson Nyquest thermal electrical noise. This net electrical filtrate can be aggregated in a group of separate diodes in consistent alignment parallel creating widely scalable electrical power. As the polarity filtered electrical energy is exported, the amount of thermal energy in the group of diodes decreases. This group cooling will draw heat in from the surrounding ambient heat at a rate depending on the filtering rate and thermal resistance between the group and ambient gas, liquid, or solid warmer than absolute zero. There is a lot of ambient heat on our planet, more in equatorial dry desert summer days and less in polar desert winter nights.
Refrigeration by the principle that energy is conserved should produce electricity instead of consuming it.
Focusing on explaining the electronic behavior of one composition of simple diode, a near flawless crystal of silicon is modified by implanting a small amount of phosphorus on one side from a ohmic contact end to a junction where the additive is suddenly and completely changed to boron with minimal disturbance of the crystal pattern. The crystal then continues to another ohmic contact.
A region of high electrical resistance forms at the junction in this type of diode when the phosphorous near the ĵunction donates electrons that are free to move elsewhere while leaving phosphorus ions held in the crystal while the boron donates a hole which is similalarly free to move. The two types of mobile charges mutually clear each other away near the junction leaving little electrical conductivity. An equlibrium width of this region is settled between the phosphorus, boron, electrons, and holes. Thermal noise is beyond steady state equlibrium. Thermal noise transients where mobile electrons move from the phosphorus added side to the boron added side ride transient extra conductivity so the forward moving electrons are preferentally filtered into the external circuit. Electrons are units of electric current. They lose their thermal energy of motion and gain electromotive force, another name for voltage, as they transition between the junction and the array electrical tap. Inside the diode, heat is absorbed: outside the diode, an attached electrical circuit is energized. The net energy in diodes connected in consistent alignment parallel is aggregated. The maximum energy is converted from ambient heat to productive electricity when the electrical load is matched to the array impeadence.
Matched impeadence output (watts) is k (Boltzman's constant, ~1.38^-23) times T (temperature Kelvin) times bandwidth (zero to a natural limit ~2 THz @ 290 K) times rectification efficiency times the number of diodes in the array
Aloha
Will superintelligence be able to run a phone help center? AI can't do it now.
Super intellegence is supposed to be millions of times smarter than our species combined. That’s like a monkey asking “can a human eat a banana or fling their own poo? I like bananas ”
Idk , we don’t need to fling our own poo , just like a truly super intelligent AI wouldn’t need to do the same thing in the same way as us.
@@phen-themoogle7651 cool story, but can it answer a phone and help me figure out why my product isn't working properly? I but it can't. So far none can, not even close.
AGI by 2029
It will impact idiots, that pretend to know stuff as a job 😅
Its an obvious scam, spend some time with it and you’ll find it to be useless😅
Ironic how many presentations on cutting edge technology are so ineptly made technically.
Wow! ASI in 2027. The Meta Ai guy says in 10 years
Ilya and SSE may focus on finding fundamental new algorithmic approaches that let their AIs learn faster with less data. They could do that with smaller scale models for which hundreds of millions of dollars of resources is sufficient, and only when they get a promising approach look for funding to scale up.
thanks for your insights Tom and for contributing those insights to the nextbigfuture website and now youtube channel.
Hi Brian, thx for the video. Do you think it's possible for you to get Ilya Sutskever for an interview?
It would be great if that happens. I will try to get AI experts for interviews.
Clear to me that Ai in time achieves ‘godlike’ status … who will be in control then humans or this ‘god’?
It won't be us, and that's probably a good thing?
Somehow I don't think the rich will share what they have with others. Charity is one thing, sharing power is something else.
That’s very true. The openness, if that’s a real thing, is the best way around the too powerful.
2027? I hope so🤖🖖🤖
greatest thumbnail ever!