Why the Stock Market has a Long Way UP to Go!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ย. 2024
- Friends! In this video, I will discuss why the stock market won't crash in 2024.
MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: / patientinvestor
MY TWITTER: / patientinvestt
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I use IBKR to invest in international stocks: www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=pntinvY&url=%2Fen%2Fhome.php
Hello, thank you for your good work. One questiion, is it possible to view PE history you use on IBKR? All the best!
@@RumarioM yes but only on the desktop app
@@thepatientinvestor9580 Thank you!
Great buying opportunities today. Embracing pullbacks and correction is key. This is where the money is made!
To be kinda blunt, I am giving up on investing in stocks… I put between 2000 to 3000 a month and it’s nothing but down down down…. Sooooo frustrating and I only invest in boring big companies. How can I capitalize in such a market?
Absolutely! Wealth is made in bear markets. We aren’t in a bear market, but nibbling heavy red days has proven to be fruitful for me over 3 years of investing. I am at 2.25 mil started with ~$400k. My biggest positions are majorly stocks and ETFs, and I’m now looking to building up DRGO alongside finding inefficiently priced small cap companies to buy. I got $48,800 last year in taxable divs . Q2 taxable divs this year was $17388 this year. Don’t sell when the market is down. Having a skilled CFA that puts the time in to do in-depth research can be invaluable in strategizing your portfolio.
I’ve been trying to get an advisor for guidance but it’s harder than you think. Anyone who is fee-based is hard to find and usually have a heavy workload. Would you be comfortable sharing a recommendation if it’s not too much problem
Oh very well then, conducting due diligence on Lina Dineikiene should suffice. The lady has established a notable reputation over time and she really does a great job on the charts.
@@VanillaCherryBread Way to go, that portfolio is impressive! DRGO is a nice addition for a dividend grower. Not that you need me to tell you that (: You’re waaaaay down the path already.
I really remember you mentioning that money will transfer to smaller stocks from the bigger ones before i heard it all over the place. amazing call
Do you think it's a good time to consider selling some stocks, or is it better to hold onto them for the long term? I remember selling 100k worth of NVIDIA years back and today, I still can't get over making the wrong decision out of rumors and hearsay.
consider financial advisory, everyone needs a margin of safety in their portfolios and remember, it's time in the mkt not timing the mkt.
Agreed, instead of following rumors or a hearsay, I adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and after subsequent investments to date, I've attained my most significant financial milestone, just about 10% shy of $1m.
@@EShepard- i'm blown away! mind sharing more info please? i am a young adult living in Miami where i've encountered several millionaires, and my goal is to become one as well
Katherine Nance is my FA. Just google the name and you’d find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
excellent share, curiously inputted Katherine Nance on the internet, spotted her consulting page ranked top and was able to schedule a call session. Ive seen commentaries about advisors but not one looks this phenomenal
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery
Glory to God shalom.
I really like your videos, I think that what you say most of the time makes sense and they are rational and realistic comments. I will continue to follow you and I hope you continue to make these types of videos.
Great call on the rotation and another quality content today.
Happy to see that ‘See you in another VIDEO’ is back again 👍🏆
Love your video! It was very informative. I'm curious about your opinion on VALE, which has 13% dividend yeild and a PE ratio of 4
@@hangyin3289 I don't analyze those stocks, no idea tbh
One thing that I especially appreciate about your videos is your keen appreciation of the 'group psychology' of investing
Love this dude. Keep being you
love hearing your thoughts on market! thanks and cheers
I think short term prediciting that the stock market is going to up is as bad as predicting it's going to go down. Seriously, people just need to stop trying to predict the stock market, which I consistently remind investors in my videos.
There's only two people I trust when it comes to stocks you and Adam khoo
Your videos are great man. Keep it up!
Certainly you deserve credit for getting the contrarian calls right; keep up the good work. I’d love to see you recommend some smaller companies under 1 billion that go under the radar of the large institutions. As small investors, I think we stand to do better there; BDT I think was a good call in this category
@@antonioswisa5937 I don't have any, I only have a few below 300m but that's too small to share on youtube, I only do that in my group
What are some small stocks that you recommend I really enjoyed your video
@@user-el2qs3ls6m too small to talk about on youtube, I talk about them in my group
I bought a small cap ons after your call on the rotation. it has gone up about 20% since then
Thanks friend, I learned a lot from this video.
I bought the dip.
@@rnegoro1 same
Me too.
I think especially with how overvalued the S&P 500 is, I think valuation is much more important now than ever and overpaying too much for an individual stock can screw your long term returns.
I love these types of videos. Excellent analysis. Be sure to make these types of videos regularly. I have been following your coherence of speech. Thanks
Appreciate your measured approach that's not just about getting views. Keep it up friend.
yes same here been selling my home builders and banks to add to the mag 7 or rather mag 20 inc SMH
Thanks, I like these types of occasional macro video. Please keep making these!
Also I think your thesis is pretty accurate. In one of your previous videos you showed how a crash usually happens after the Fed pivots. Looks like the pivot will happen in Q4 of this year, which is consistent with what you're describing here.
Do you think after the pivot, all stocks will go down together or only the megacaps?
Best TH-cam channel 🎉
Always great to hear your opinions. Thanks for the upload. The funny thing is: I was also diversifying out of tech. I still hold about half my portfolio in tech since the cash flows are still growing strong despite the rotation out of the stocks and my non-tech names have been rallying hard so my portfolio is at all time highs despite META and AMZN lagging and being my largest positions.
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Nice job my man! I mean i 100 percent agree on there being zero risk for a crash. I wasn't even aware anybody worth listening to was calling for that though. The sp500 equal weighted isn't anywhere close to being high enough to crash in my estimation. And regarding the Russell 2000, keep in mind the most common prediction i noted on January 1st among all the TV/newspaper talking heads was to bet on the small caps! I stated here on your channel that yes, the small caps of course have a historic opportunity to catch up but it's way too early for that trade and it would be wise to ignore it and hide out in mega caps and dividend aristocrats. That turned out to be the sweet spot first half of year. As for the second half, I completely agree with you, and have a nice position on small caps, but so does everybody I know! It's solely based on a historic dislocation from large caps, a little less so now, and of course the feds plans to lower rates, but Not on some fundamental basis of an economic cycle reset (recession) that always serves as the major catalyst for small caps. It's just a trade, purely technical in nature. And yes, the reinversion of the yield curve will occur as it always does due to the central banks responding to a recession, which I agree should hit next year, as gen AI spend is digested.
PI I would love to know your thoughts on this small caps trade. Given the fact that you are anticipating a recession and reinversion in next year do you agree this trade is mostly if not strictly technical in nature? In my estimation the market has been all over this trade since last fall when the fed officially indicated a pause. So at this point before your anticipated recession don't you think this is nothing more than a "cute" reallocation trade rather than anything fundamental such as an economic reset? I think that's what you meant but want to confirm.
Great video - This is why having both “value” and “growth” in your portfolio is essentially - I add to one and then to the other as they go out of favour as well 👍
As a newer investor in some mega caps (as I know the businesses) but a bit wary of any small caps (which I don’t know) would you suggest Berkshire or BRK-B is a defensive play along with my known large cap holdings?
Thank you and very relevant information. Thank you for all that you do.
Can you check MBLY for long-term portfolio?
Symptoms of coming recsions:
1- Stocks worth 200% GDP
2- Sahm rule triggerd.
3 - rate cut rallied market or rotation
4- Good jobs harder to find.
5 - An influencer picks your stocks now.
Can you elaborate on 5?
You’re one of the best out there
Vast majority of retail participants in stock market have no clue about stock value nor company business plan. They go for feelings and price anchoring.
MSFT and NVDA imo are over valued, NVDA’s revenue is high risk and I don’t see how or why they cannot be replaced by someone else in the future. What is their moat? People keep saying cuda but why not OpenCL? What’s the freaking reason why one is better than the other, I feel like open source software is going to be the future not a walled off software like CUDA. Similar to Microsoft & macOS or android vs IOS, I see they have a competitive advantage but my question is these people are very technical and they don’t need an aesthetic software like Apple has. They most likely just want functionality vs. Appearance, if I am wrong and maybe got this completely wrong. Then please correct me and please explain to me why I am wrong and you are right
Love your work mate 😎
Please never stop making videos :)
I am moving about as fast as a tree sloth. Nice gains.
Thank you❤
Rate cut september? Oil will fly. Inflation wave 2. Let's go!
Well done!
Uhh your yield curve is not updated, it's at -0.14 not -1.12
Edited: funny guy he's showing the 10-3 instead of 10-2, that was at -0.09 this week
@@The_WolfPack_Alpha the 10-3 month has been accurate 100% of the time, the 10y 2y has been wrong once, I'll take my chances with 10y 4m
@@thepatientinvestor9580 righttttttt, well either way I'm bullish as long as everyone is bearish
good stuff
10:20 you should have included "the traveling trader" channel. One of doom and gloom channel ever since the covid started until now.
How can you predict crash After 6 monht. You must be billionary if you know the exactly time zone for markets cyklus
@@BE-qz9je you haven't watched the video, I am not predicting ,not timing the market, and I didn't give an exact date and time, I said according to the yield curve if the market will crash it has to be in mid 2025, is it too hard to understand?
buying LULU, EVVTY, BBD, ULTA, APTV, FIVE, SHLS, OPRA, INMD, ALTM, DLO ..let`s go 🚀 and hope there will be no recession, otherwise I will be doomed
@@keiminSK the recession is priced in many of them
@@thepatientinvestor9580 I hope you are right , so far it seems like money is being transferred to other stocks and sectors, just like you predicted.
Would love a $ccl or $Nclh video❤
@@bobathedog I like nclh
Did your hypothesis on Ulta beauty changed and you sold? Or you still believe in a recovery?
@@hallowiegehts9227 the fundamentals haven't changed why would I change my mind
@@thepatientinvestor9580 yea your calls are really clean. Rotation and Reits worked, now ima get into the Nasdaq 100
IMO markets to top in Nov-24-Jan-25
If the crash going to happen soon why would we invest now , its better to buy after the crash happen .right ?!
@@hussainalmomen3234 no one knows for sure what will happen, we only speak of probabilities and I will never not buy an undervalued stock just because I think the market will go down
Investment group link?
@@jbkarate www.patreon.com/patientinvestor
I don't even listen to CNBC. They are bunch of clowns
They're idiots but there is some value in listening to them. It gives some indication of what the large herd of investors might be thinking and doing.
6 months from now is not mid 2025.. mid 2025 is in 12 months.. not sure and confused about your video of timing a crush
@@coffeeandbeyond7416 i meant after 6 months
6 months from now. He is predicting crash 6 months from now! I have to come back and check this in 6 months. I save this video.
@@TheBooban you haven't watched the entire video, I said after 6 months, not within 6 months, feel free to save it as much as you want but make sure you understand it and you understand that I do revisit my thesis if the fact changes, so make sure you Save those too
@@thepatientinvestor9580 12:27 "in 6 months". Video from last month :). But most importantly when the yield curve turns positive. Lets see. I like your NOC bet btw, I have 1 share :)
Palantir is going to $100
@@RoTelnCheese I hope
im a subscriber and appreciate your takes but half of your video is you talking about how everyone is wrong and how your takes were correct......be humble man
@@crohmer you're missing the point, the point is that I focus on investors sentiment , if everyone is bullish I'm bearish, if everyone is bearish I'm bullish, it's not being humble, in investing you need some kind of arrogance, because anytime you're buying a stock someone else is selling it to you, you're always betting that the other person is wrong, but you also need humility to know that you could be wrong, I have both
Not a fan of these type of videos. I still prefer the individual businesses analysis but it gets attraction. Stock market crash, stock market going up, or best stocks to buy videos make more money than some boring fundamental analysis of a mispriced asset.
@@herokorai8346 I do it once every 2 weeks and every single video I post here is related to you making returns ,if you did listen to the ones I did before you would've bought stocks like noc not because they were just undervalued, but because they also had a catalyst which was discussed, I guess feel free to skip the once every 2 weeks video that you believe is only for attention , although I would've done it everyday if that was my goal
@@thepatientinvestor9580 No worries man! You have to cater to various audiences so I understand. Personally, I do listen to your individual stock analysis to see if I missed anything. I don't mind at all various perspectives but my interest has always been the micro. Broad macro - too much to think for my little brain! Anticipating a business future cashflow is hard enough.
I love drama they create 😂 as I’m all into global ETFs, fuck them doom preachers, I can buy shares for cheaper 😂
While I like your video, but I think you are being unrealistic to think you can predict when the crash will happen in 6 months - you lose credibility when you do that
@@pklee7395 i think you haven't watched the entire video, because I didn't say exactly in 6 months, mainly after 6 months, I should've fixed the title
You don’t get it. We are going back to 1929 and staying there for YEARS.
@@goxnanfumw if inflation stops maybe
SHOP looks cheap right now....get in while you can