There has been growing discussion in the news about Moldova and Transnistria. But while it would seem that a military solution is not on the cards, do you see an opportunity for a peaceful settlement? And how would it play out? Or is recent speculation driven by Russia to justify some action against Moldova? Perhaps it is designed to lay the groundwork for annexing Transnistria? So, what do you think is going on? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
Putin did not even recognise Moldova voting for Transnistria independence. I guess you should start with that. Moldova has the same exact problem as Ukraine, you have few nations , biggest poverty together with Ukraine and people who remember Soviet Union when it was better. Half of Moldavians wants Romania to annex them and most of Transnistrians want Russia because they have Soviet culture. Btw people in Transnistria are the nicest people you’ll ever meet.
Can both options be true at the same time? Russia always has a plan it’s working on but if Moldova stays on its current path I do think a peaceful solution is possible in time. They just need patience.
Clearly any kind of re-incorporation of Transnistria back into Moldova needs to be accompanied by resettlement of its pro-Russian population. They could be offered safety passage back to Russia. Experience in Ukraine shows that non-native Russia settlers are a threat to territorial integrity of neighboring countries..
After the war in the 90s relationships between Moldova and Transnistria were not a significant issue. The only reason Transnistria may become a focal point is the conflict between the west and Russia. Internally there is a division in both Moldova and Transnistria, as a significant part of their ethnically diverse populations is pro-Russian or pro-peace, they don't want to get involved. But NATO and EU may use Moldova and Transnistria to try to score a win against Russia. They can use their NGOs, money and pro-western and western-educated elites in Moldova. The best for Moldova and Transnistria will be if the conflict between the west and Russia is not expanded and kept within Ukraine.
The Moldovans will not try anything militarily. For multiple reasons. Those that you mentioned, but also the fact that they don't know how the war in Ukraine will end. The Russians might get Odessa in the future and thus get to Moldova too. Also, the population in Transnistria, although only 28% ethnically Russian, is deeply committed to Russia. They might not be Russians, but they do identify with the Russian cultural and social space. If Transnistria would get integrated into Moldova, that would change the electoral space there. Now the pro-European camp barely manages to get over 50%. Add Transnistria to it and I don't know if you will ever get again a pro-European majority. And I don't think that pro-European people from proper Moldova would be too happy about this.
Thanks so much. I completely agree. I did try to highlight that, as paradoxical as it might seem, incorporating Transnistria could actually be the best outcome for Moscow, at least in the short term. I didn’t really touch on the Ukraine angle. But this is of course vital. If Russia loses, then I think we will see a very different picture emerge.
@@JamesKerLindsayif necessary Kyiv has offered to take care of Transnistria militarily should they be asked. I imagine Ukraine feels threatened (stick) by the smallish Russian garrison and the less small PMR forces coupled with the potential prize (carrot) of the munitions in the extensive Cobasna ammo-dump. One would imagine thanks to the current pressing shortage (thx to internal US politics & the usual European arsing around) that temptation is not far away for long. However whether or not the materiel remaining in Cobasna is in usable condition and can a SpecOps strike take it intact (boobytrapped) may be a/the key point.
28% of Russians and 23% of Ukraina People from the current population in Transnistria of 450,000 I believe, added to 2,6m of current residents in MD will make the number of Russians + Ukro to barely 5% total exRSSM population, so the pro-Europeanness will hardly be affected. M. Sandu will not win next elections. There might well be won by Dodon.
Yep Democracy actually hurts us in this case. The government could technically due an economic embargo and Transnistria would collapse within a month ( there are a lot of dumb benefits that are finally being rolled back made by corrupt Moldovan politicians in the 90's that helped Transnistria as well) But like you mentioned the voters there would always vote pro-Russian if they came over thus preventing the state from ever truly solving the problem in short time
Transnistria is more of a headache for Ukraine than it is for Moldova at the moment. Ukrainian politicians have suggested several times that they could retake Transnistria for Moldova, but apparently this isn't what Moldova wants. As you're saying, having to integrate a potentially hostile pro-Russian population does not seem to be in the current government's interest.
Thanks. Exactly. And one can see why this wouldn't be in Ukraine's interest either. It is far better to have a pro-EU Moldova on its southwestern border than to step in to "solve" Transnistria, only to find that this opens the way for Moldova to become pro-Russian. This would explain why Ukraine has avoided attacking Transnistria. Also, while the Russian garrison is small, many Transnistrians would probably take up arms to fight off a Ukranian attack. This could make the conflict far bloodier than it might seem at first. Better not to take the risk unless absolutely necessary.
@@JamesKerLindsay Technically Moldova/Ukraine could place the area under military occupation. Much as the Southern USA was during Reconstruction. This would solve the problem of ending the Russian threat, without the problems of political integration. Of course, this wouldn't be conducive to a peaceful co-existence between Transnistrians and Moldovans, and has the risks associated with the relationship between Israel and Palestine. (Of course, Moldova and Ukraine would have to successfully gain control of the area in the first place, which is not a given, considering how condensed and comparatively urbanised Transnistria is.)
@@JamesKerLindsaythis is false in the same way Crimea and Donbas is false. A large part of the reason they are pro- Russian is because they are occupied by Russian troops. Crimea wasn't pro Russian until the little green men appeared. You take the Russian military out of transnistria and it is just a bunch of old people who want to live peaceful lives.
Excited about you covering this topic. I visited Tiraspol in 2019 and after the invasion I've often thought it's been overlooked as a complicating factor.
Thanks so much. I'd be keen to hear what you think is really going on. It really doesn't make a lot of sense. While Moldova is being more assertive, there seems little likelihood that Moldova is eyeing up military action. Do you see peaceful reunification? Or do you think that maybe Moldova is planning on doing something, depending on how the war in Ukraine develops?
Even though Moldova is not in nato yet they have been receiving training and military aid from nato and the United States but a peaceful reunion would probably be best solution for now !
@@JamesKerLindsay yes reunification like Taiwan separatist with China.Why Taiwan separatis are so special and International Low doe't aplaid for them.What is diference ?
@@JamesKerLindsay Reunification of a Stalin's present at thé Price of a War ? Insane and ridiculous. Never had Transnistria bé part of thé historical principality of Moldova and Tiraspol was built in 1792 by général Suvorov. Transnistria will bé back to mother Russia. Wisdom on behalf of Moldova would bé to accept it for thé good of all.
@@JamesKerLindsay Agree that there's little likelihood of Moldova taking military action. It would galvanize pro-Russia sentiment and it's much wiser to wait and see how dwindling subsidies and the limitation of preferential trade opportunities play out for Tiraspol and Sheriff.
I feel that Transnistria is one of those cases where there's a deep disconnect between outsiders looking in and the people living there day-to-day. For me, it's obvious that Transnistria should reintegrate to Moldova. Imagine all the benefits which would come with moving Westward politically! And how can they believe their tiny sliver of land will ever prosper as it is? Yet clearly they don't feel that way, and that ethnic and cultural ties, as well as history, has shaped a radically different outlook to this question. Our imagined worlds are often much more important than the real world.
Thanks so much Emma. Brilliant point. You are absolutely right. This is why I always tell my students that one of the most important lessons in policy analysis is to understand that what people perceive to be real is real in its consequences. It’s not what we understand to be the objective truth that matters in a situation, it’s what the parties to a situation believe to be the reality that will shape their actions. It is a vital lesson. We might all know that EU membership would be to their benefit, but if they see it as alien and hostile and believe that Russia is still their best option they will resist a deal.
@@JamesKerLindsayMaybe the fact that ''Moldavia'' is always mentioned in the context of strippers and prostitutes within EU countries, until the Russo-Ukrainian war, play some reason for having second thoughts about the benefits of being a fourth gear EU country. A membership in the EU as it was meant to be yes, could be very beneficial. This EU, which is basically a nest of neo-liberal (and now neo-con) vampires, has nothing of substance to offer. Even to a Borat-land.
It's completely irrational, but a lot of people are irrational. People's emotions cloud their judgement. I believe it's that simple if you drill right down.
Yep I mean they trade more with the EU than Russia. The Pro-Russia mentality is due too Soviet brainwashing. Remember Transnistria was mostly part of Ukraine but was made an autonomous region in Moldova when the Soviet stole Moldova from Romania as a means too try and prevent a reunion (which is inevitable at some point) Transitria only survives cause of basically free Russian gas. Average Moldovan doesn't really even care about Transnistria
@@EdMcF1 Agreed. Unfortunately, a small percentage of the population favors independence in our country. That’s one of the consequences of being a colony of both Spain and the US for so long… but we will keep pushing for independence.
Error in the video 82% are romanians and moldovans (not 75%), with 75% moldovans and 7% romanians, they are technically the same nation and ethnic group named differently.
Yes and no. One would suspect that there's a political point being made here. While most Moldovans may see themselves as Romanians, there may well be many who reject this for whatever reason, even if they speak Romanian. Identity can be a strange thing in these situations. Also, some may be of mixed marriages and prefer to identify as Moldovans in a civic sense rather than opting for an ethnic identification.
@@JamesKerLindsay I'm sorry to say, you didn't get the meaning of the word "Moldovan". There are millions of Moldovans also in Romania and all of them call themselves Romanians. To be Moldovan means to be a Romanian from the province called Moldova, just as to be Transylvanian means to be a Romanian from the province called Transylvania. So "Moldovan" means "Romanian from Moldova", where "Moldova" can mean the country Moldova or the province of Moldova, which remained in Romania after the war against Russia. "Moldovan" is like you would say, for instance, in Italy: Milanese, Lombard, Florentine, Genovese or Napoletano - all these are Italians. So Moldovan and Romanian are synonyms, if you want.
@@Cosimoro72 foarte corect 👋 ♥ romania 🇲🇩. Sunt rusi in Moldova dar noi suntem dacii liberi si vorbim romaneste limba noastra daco romana. Salutari din Romania 🇷🇴 de la o fata din Jiu jianca.
@CosimoRomania this is about romanian moldavians who live in the historical region of Moldova (Iași, Botoșani, Bacău etc) . As a moldavian from the republic of Moldova (Basarabia) i call myself moldovean , after that i call myself romanian as well , the bigger picture ,but first I'm moldovean . Just like Scottish and welsh in UK , they are not english but british in the end . This is how is see it , romanian is the larger identity , but ardelean, munteam, moldovean etc are coming first .
Hi professor. Is it correct from a legal standpoint to say that "Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh" when in fact before last September it had never directly controlled the region ever since it got its independence from the Soviet Union?
@@kostam.1113 That's a fair point. But I could argue that the one that exerted the real control was the Soviet Union and not the Azerbaijan SR. Besides, Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous region with a very high degree of autonomy and they were essentially self-govern
Thanks. That's the key point of the video. It doesn't. This is the curious thing about the situation. Why did Russia issue a warning over something that will almost certainly not happen? Two years ago, it would have looked like it was preparing the ground to justify an invasion. But it can't do that anymore. But the interesting thing is that Russia might be better off having Transnistria back in Moldova.
@@JamesKerLindsay People in Transnistria wants to join Russia and they actually asked so recently and around 220K Russian speaking people live there. But Russia is not considering officially in any terms for now. When Moldova starts to suppress these people, the conflict will break out for sure and nothing can be done to stop Russia from taking it ( Sources: Politico, CNN, bloomberg ) I would advise to watch Jacques baud analysis on Former US colonel davis channel to see through the history of Ukraine conflict. Also, please both of them served in NATO and not Putin propagandists. Especially, Davies who somewhat still believes Russia is ***t and 3 days kiev story still. You won't be disappointed Here is the link: th-cam.com/video/qlQVnTsUQtk/w-d-xo.html
@@JamesKerLindsay the warning by Moscow was to tell their brothers in Transnistria ,by reassuring them" don`t worry guy`s, we have your back" so, not to follow Armenia a traditional ally of Russia, down the western road (EU and/or Nato)
In 1992 the Moldovan military had three full motor-rifle brigades, an artillery of brigade and other support units along with a functioning and combat capable air force and yet they were unable to restore control over the russian held area of their Country. Now the Moldovians due to the mess their country is in have three badly undermanned brigades, a unit of artillery (I don't believe they have enough functioning artillery for a brigade anymore), no air force, etc. What was in the early 1990s was a standard through small military is now left with poorly maintained junk; It's like they are struck in the 80s as shown in the video. They have officially increased the military budget and updating but the new equipment they have gotten are so limited in quantity that it's basically meaningless, along with a refusal to increase military numbers for their country. So Moldova right now has no chance of freeing their whole country. The russian puppets also have an old equipped military, suffer from spare manpower, however their military size is around the same as Moldova, they sit on soviet occupation era stockpiles, and unlike Moldova they do have tanks. Until Moldova develops a military that is better than their historical equivalent in 1992 (Which is basically impossible due to the high costs of some stuff like Fighter Jets and Moldavian corruption), and has ways to deal with the russian population post-victory, Moldova is sadly in no State to kick out the colonisers.
@@JamesKerLindsay I'm Romanian and I see this topic often here, "what would/should do Romania if Russian troops reached Transnistria and war broke out". And the general consensus seem to be that Romania would most certainly intervene militarily to help the Romanian brothers. One way or the other. Any politician who would try to say otherwise would have to flee the country, probably. :) And Romania HAS an army of 80.000 and can easily mobilize another 4,5 million soldiers. A NATO standard army. As you know, "Moldova" means today two things: a country AND a region of Romania. Basically, the old Romanian region "Moldova" was split in two, Russia managing to capture only half of it. The other half remained in Romania. Later, during the 1960s if I remember correctly, some parts from the occupied half were incorporated in Ukraine and they are now part of the independent Ukraine. So, you see, when I say "brothers", this term can be taken literally in so many cases. On the other hand, most people say that the Russians from Transnistria (30% of the population who lives there) are not that bad, most of them are good people, they definitely don't want war, they don't want Putin or Russia, so a peaceful solution is clearly possible.
Next month, I will have the opportunity to visit Moldova and Transnistria ..the feedback from folk i know there,there seems little support for a Moldovan intervention ..the damage ,even if such a move was successful ,would be counter-productive ,turning Trans. as the `victim` . And of course ,the tax payers in Moldovia would be footing the economic bill of that reunification( and a sizable Trans. population that is hostile to such action... and perhaps taking partizan action against Moldovan forces and institutes..
I was actually in Moldova 🇲🇩 last year on my way to Ukraine. In the capital there was a huge rally to join the European Union. Unfortunately I didn't have time to visit Transnistria, I'm sure it would have been a different experience.
The really interesting thing about this conflict is that it isn't as strictly ethnically based as other separatist disputes. A third of Transnistrians are Moldovans. And a quarter are Ukranians. By all accounts, the two sides interact relatively freely. It really does seem to be about vested interests in certain quarters.
Excellent analysis. I do think the only way for a stable peaceful future is by following the example set after the second world war. People were moved between territories by recognising the facts on the ground. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, lots of questions were left unanswered, many have resolved themselves, others still searching for an answer. By following that same formula, I think it's possible to find a lasting solution, and a peaceful Europe. There's a reason Europe was largely free of major conflicts since the second world war, just follow what has worked before.
Chișinău has no interest in starting a military conflict or unrest for the forseable future. It's already difficult enough to make sure the country stays on a EU trajectory, and that's where all the focus is atm. Maia Sandu has repeatedly emphasized that her govt seeks out a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Very good question. In a strictly legal sense, it doesn’t. (But I’m not the persons to argue with about this. I was very critical about the way that Kosovo’s status was handled in 2008 and I wrote a book on why it was so problematic.) That said, in a political sense, it always made sense for Serbia to let Kosovo go its own way, especially in the context of the dissolution of Yugoslavia.
@@bilic8094 It's incorrect to say "both" since 3 territories were mentioned, not 2. In any case, whether the territory gets (formally) annexed by another country is a meaningful difference.
Kosovo is supported by the Western & NATO powers, while Donbas, Crimea and Transnistria aren't. And since they aren't supported by the collective West that means they can't break away from Ukraine and Moldova.
What is the current state of Moldova's economy and military? I don't know that much about that region, but a look on the map show it's gonna be very difficult to invade due to geography and the economic situation
The two aren't even remotely similar. Moldova has no real allies and it's a pathetically poor state with a tiny population situated in an area without any mountains. Azerbaijan not only has more people, but it's in a geographical location that's much easier to defend, and they're rich as fuck. A lot of other very wealthy and very powerful countries have an interest in Azerbaijan not devolving into war. The whole energy infrastructure of the future is being built around Azeri oil.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 Bro, what? GDP per capita: *Azerbaijan* - $7,530 *Moldova* - $6,411 GDP (PPP) per capita: *Azerbaijan* - $18,694 *Moldova* - $16,916 The 2 countries are about the same economically.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 And although Moldova's closest ally (Romania) isn't as powerful as Turkey (Azerbaijan's closest ally), still Moldova *too* has "very wealthy and very powerful countries" that have a strong interest in it (and the region at large) not devolving (further) into war... namely, the EU, lol. It also just signed a defense agreement with France.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 Minimum wage today: *Moldova* - €260 (~$673 PPP) *Azerbaijan* - €187 (~$505 PPP) Average net wage: *Moldova (2023)* - €557 ($1,291 PPP) *Azerbaijan (2022)* - €364 ($1,189 PPP) Moldova overtakes Azerbaijan here... HDI Moldova: 0.763 (rank 86th) HDI Azerbaijan: 0.760 (rank 89th) The countries are def very similar both economically & in their development.
@@dyawr GDP per capita and minimum wage are irrelevant to the economic power of a resource-rich state. Azerbaijan can have poor citizens but it's still an economic power due to oil and gas production in the Caspian Sea. Russia has running economic agreements with all the Caspian Sea states. There was no reason to shoot itself in the knee for a state that would not stand up for its own people's ethnic enclave.
Moldova is a small tiny country like Djibouti 🇩🇯 with a micro-satellite armies, that cannot fight a war of attrition, rather they can only afford to secure their internal security. Moldova and Transnistrian will resolve in peaceful negotiation, NATO has no room to involves because of territorial conflicts and Russia wouldn't invades unless NATO rise up this conflict, Thank you, great insights 👍
Read a book by Moldovan author Tatiana Țîbuleac recently. In an interview she said that she doesn't consider it an error when people identify her as a Romanian writer, as "Moldovan authors always saw themselves as belonging to Romanian literature". I haven't read any authors from Transnistria though.
Popular Moldovans identify as Romanian because most of them end up moving to Romania and living there. It's not a great country by any means, but incomparably better compared to living in Moldova. Normal Moldovans don't feel that way. Quite the opposite. Unless they're super liberal and progressive, most of them strongly identify as Moldovan and will hate you if you imply they're Romanian. They're (I'd say pretty justifiably) incredibly resentful of Romanians for getting into NATO, getting into the EU, and in general just being a real country and not some half-way Russified satellite state. They're very proud of their culture and of being Moldovan, since for many of them, that's literally all they have.
@@joek600 Romania means - Moldova, Wallachia,Transylvania, Dobrogea (Dobrudja) regions ,we were the same in the past , but divided by foreign powers! - empires! Ottomans, Tsarist Russia, Austro-Hungary ! IMAGINE to be in the middle , squeezed by 3 powerful neighbors (empires!) it's a miracle that we made to unify these romanian (EX PRINCIPALITIES) in the past (remember - romanians were in MAJORITY even in the past ,despite foreign occupations) ...many centuries needed to wait in patience to unify these historical provinces for romanians... HUGE PATIENCE! and some bit of luck , to do this in the right moment ,in the right place (WW1)
Thanks for another great video, Professor. Could you share your thoughts on the future of international law considering what’s happening around the world. What could be done proactively to replace the existing system and rules if the current system is becoming untenable due to the lawlessness of actors like Russia.
Moldova is on course to join the EU, any war would damage its application process for no real gain in terms of the economy which is on its knees. You never mentioned the war of 1990 between Moldova and Transnistria ?
3:38 Нет! Румыния оккупировала (не присоединила) Молдавию силой оружия, а не "Молдова воспользовалась". Кто ее спрашивал? И конечно, СССР не признал румынскую оккупацию своей земли. При СССР после 2 Мировой войны не было никаких румынских националистических настроений, Румыния была союзником СССР. Что вы все переделываете? Румыния младше Молдовы на 400 лет! Какие могут быть претензии? Это у Молдовы могут быть претензии, чтоб вернуть румынские земли!
As a citizen of Moldova, I am strongly against military actions. But if it was to degenerate - without help of Ukraine and Romania - it will be hard to solve the issue once and for all. Instead, I think the reintegration could be possible step by step, small steps, big steps and eventually separatists will fall(not all people on the left bank are separatists). There is one strategic issue - huge interdependence between constitutional side and separatist region, on one side it is electrical power (good news - right now they effectively started building direct connection to Romania, as now, most energy coming from Romania still goes through Ukraine and separatist region of Moldova, those soviet bastards specifically built all industry on the left bank, keeping right bank rural). And separatists export most of their goods to EU, benefiting from the deals between Moldova and EU. Also they get money from the energy produced from "free" gas from russia. There are many variables, but progress is being made. Moldova's government last year started a national program to learn Romanian language (as still there are people who migrated here during russian occupation(and sometimes their progeniture) and didn't learn the language. And guess what - this year there were like twice more requests than initially expected, including from the left bank. But after connecting properly electric networks of Romania and Moldova, this will be a huge gameover for separatist regime. Extra economic measures will be introduced, and they will either yield/run, or be killed by the people on the left bank.
Thanks. I completely agree. I don't think a military solution is the way to approach this. For all the reasons I discussed, it is far better to keep up the carrots and sticks on Transnistria. And you are right: there will be many in Transnistria who will not fear unification, especially if a good political model is put on the table and it comes with EU-supported investment. It's really interesting to hear about the Romanian language classes.
@EdMcF1 Indeed. I did think that this has probably played a part in shifting support for Russia, especially amongst young men - and their parents, and sisters, and aunts and uncles.
Maybe a freightning question, but what about using russian tactics? The major problem for the Moldovan Goverment is the Russians living in Transnistria, that would then be the majority in the country. What if, and I dont support this in any way, but when the moldovan government would relocate the russians in any shape or form?
Ваше лживое представление поражает. Румыния, как искусственно созданное западом государство, образовалось позднее Бессарабии, румынский язык сформировался позднее молдавского языка. И самая бессовестная ложь: вы отрицаете существование молдаван, гагаузов, хотя это как минимум отдельные национальности, имеющие свои языки, тогда как вы называете их румыноговорящими ( а ведь молдоване государствообразующий народ, а не какие не румыны). Румыния участвовала во Второй мировой войне на стороне Гитлера. Румынские войска зверствовали на территории Советского Союза, в частности особенно на территории Одессы, которая в этот период, как и в период основания, являлась русским городом. Поэтому вся политика запада направлена на захват, подчинение исконно русских или союзных России государств. Западная гитлеровская Европа, проигравшая во Второй мировой войне, пытается снова спровоцировать, развязать войну на европейском континенте. Постоянно провоцирует Россию. И это плохо закончится для европейских государств. Прекратите провоцировать войну, господа европейцы.
Parts of all European nations participated in the attacks on Russia under the leadership of Napoleon, under the leadership of the Germans and Austrians in WWI and under the leadership of Hitler in WWII. Now for the fourth time the Europeans are attacking Russia, this time under the leadership of the Americans and the English, but in such a way that the Europeans are in the front lines. Part of the Europeans understood the Anglo-Saxon deception, and those who did not will leave their bones in the Russian land as in all three previous times.
Просто они хотят разбудить Русского Медведя . Потом будут как Усраинцы говорить а нас за шо. Хотят войны будит это. Думаю никому не нужна это война но они вынуждают Россию. Только потом пусть не плачут а нас за шо.
Who IS attacking Who? Moldova IS hosting Nato forces to confront Russia.The act of preparing to attack is same as Attacking when war IS already wedding arming the parts
The west theoretically Supporting Moldova invading Transnistria would be flat out hypocrisy, after criticising Russia for doing something similar, to me it looks like big trouble anyway, if Tranistria has managed to keep that mixed population living in harmony best left well alone, an invasion could stir up real problems , And Moldova could bite off more than it could chew
Good afternoon James I find the ethnic composition of Transnistria interesting - would like to know if any polling has been done on the 23% Ukrainians in the breakaway state. It is probable that they moved at a time when Ukraine was very pro-Moscow, but then, many of those who previously held such views, especially in cities like Odesa (not far away from Transnistria), have since changed their views - and so, if the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed their views on Russia in itself. Also, if there is a military action, would it not be difficult for Russia to manage, given the original plan back in 2022 of establishing a 'land-bridge' upto Transnistria has failed ? A great insightful video as always and keep up the good work.
Transnistrie was aggregated to Moldova by Stalin in 1940. Before it never was part of historical Moldova. In 1792 it was taken by thé russian empire from thé Ottomans and thé current capital city of Transnistrie was built thé same year by Russian général Suvorov. So no historical rights from Moldova to take back Transnistrie. Odessa is likely to bé Taken back by Russia before thé end of this current War. At this occasion Transnistria will likely join back Russia too. If Moldova keep quiet and doesn't provoke Russia peace will go on for thé benefit of everybody. Moreover if Roumania leaves NATO Russia could ease réunification of Moldova with Rumania. Russia has fabulous cards to play with Rumania, Bulgaria and Serbia giving back them Moldova, northern Macedonia and Kosovo with Krajina ... 😊
Thanks so much, Anirudh. I hope all is well at your end. Great question. I'm not aware of any work done on this. But it is a fascinating issue. I wonder how things will change as Moldova moves closer to the EU.
Let me correct your statement. Armenia (2018-2020) continues to house Russian bases and border guards, increases trade with Russia, buys 96% of military equipment from Russia. Meanwhile Russia is increasing ties with Azerbaijan, sending more weapons. Azerbaijan (2020) holds exercises with NATO member Turkey and invites Turkish generals, special forces and Syrian mercenaries to attack Nagorno-Karabakh using Turkish weapons. Russia doesn’t stop the war until the last moment to incite a revolution in Armenia and get their person to run the government (they fail). Stupid Russian bots: Armenia is turning to the west and NK isn’t Armenia. Armenia (2021-2022) continues to increase trade and defense ties with Russia, meanwhile Russia withholds $400 million in military equipment. Azerbaijan (2021-2022) attacks Armenia proper. Armenia asks Russia for assistance because their territory is under attack. Russia makes excuses while Azerbaijan occupies 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory. Armenia increases ties with the EU and gets a EU monitoring mission to keep Azerbaijan from further attacking Armenia. Meanwhile it continues to keep good ties with Russia and increase trade. Stupid Russian bots: Armenia is increasing ties with the West they must be punished. Fact is Russia backstabbed Armenia because they had more to gain from Azerbaijan. Conclusion: Russia is an unreliable partner using excuses to justify not intervening to protect a country it has betrayed.
@@strpet27 First of all, no one attacked Armenia. Secondly, Armenia itself did not recognize or defend Nagorno-Karabakh. Thirdly, Armenia decided to be friends with the West, so it learned a lesson and lost Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. Conclusion: you are a paid troll.
@@СтражникПравды You’re so fixated that your country didn’t do anything wrong that you’re ignoring all the facts. I wasn’t accusing Russia of not intervening in 2020, I was accusing it of not intervening in 2022 when Armenian territory was attacked and it requested help from Russia. And also in 2023 when its peacekeepers stood by and watched as Azerbaijan took Nagorno Karabakh. Also Russia had good relations with Azerbaijan starting way before 2018 when Pashinyan was elected. (They were Azerbaijan’s largest weapons partner). The hypocrisy of your statement accusing Armenia of being friendly towards the west while your own country is sending weapons and signing treaties with Armenia’s enemy. Russia can continue having good relations with Azerbaijan as long as it wants and not do anything when Azeris kill Russian soldiers that is Russia’s choice. Armenia’s choice is now to get guarantees from more reliable partners.
@@strpet27 Don't lie, there is no official request for Armenia's help. Nagorno-Karabakh is not a part of Armenia. Which confirms the fact that Armenia itself did not fight. You want to do everything with Russian hands all the time. There are millions of Armenians living in Russia, none of them went to defend Nagorno-Karabakh.
This was specifically about Transnistria. (It is very easy to confuse viewers by trying to cover too many issues.) I have done a whole video on Gagauzia and I did in fact put a link to it in this video. th-cam.com/video/KlYoVJEoRzM/w-d-xo.htmlsi=K0eFTH2xp0x1F-a5
The EU is currently doing 10000000000X more for a non member (and probably not eligible for the next 50 years if the standards applied) than it ever did for Cyprus. The only reason Cyprus wanted an EU membership was the false sense of security against Turkey. Financially and living standards wise the island is doing much much better than many EU recent additions (after the 90's). The Cypriot Pound used to be a harder currency than the British one. A large part of the affluence comes from the fact that the island has been basically the money laundry of Russia and Middle Eastern states, antagonizing in that function the established European money laundry states. The EU allowed in Cyprus in order to control or close down their little shop while giving back only platitudes and fanfares. Basically the Cypriots by entering EU put their fingers in the electricity socket and that was proved by the private (not just public) bank account haircuts they received die to a crisis that normally would not have touch them otherwise. I hope that makes you feel better.
Surprised you didn't talk about Moldova's Gagauzia who actively courting Russian support, even though they are a Turkic people. Though they seem peaceful and seem happy to be autonomous, who only want to seperate if Moldova was to join the EU or Romania. I feel for these small ethnic groups and they often get unfairly treated different by us if they align with Russia, which is often because they have no alternatives. One thing I will never get is we supported Kosovo independence but we seem to have a totally different set of rules for the Gaguazia, Transnistria, Ossetia, or Abkhazia. The problem with the international law is sovereignty of borders and self-determination are at odds. Personally I believe self-determination and freedom to choose is more important. Though I prefer peaceful ways like Scotland or Quebec style referendums.
Thanks. I covered Gagauzia in another video th-cam.com/video/KlYoVJEoRzM/w-d-xo.htmlsi=qk0ueriL2UdxjXMD And I agree on Kosovo. Although I think independence is the best and most logical outcome, I argued that it needed to be consensual and that the way it was handled has created huge problems: www.bloomsbury.com/us/kosovo-9780857714121/
What is the inhabitants of the region wants? If they want an independent state for their own or want to be part of Russian Federation and their wishes should be granted, just like Kosovo was grsnded independence while it was seen as part of Serbia.
Kosovo is not independent. The largest American military base in the Balkans is on Kosovo. Do you think that region would be independent with an even bigger American military base ?
The time to have retaken Transnistria was during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022 when Russia was preoccupied with Ukrainian advances in the Eastern part of Ukraine. At that point, a pincer movement by Moldovan troops from the West and Ukrainian soldiers from the East would have crushed the Russian forces in Transnistria and made its reincorporation into Moldova a fait accompli.
I have been following this issue for many years. I understand the Moldovan position, and the general position of "not giving away territory to rogue states." Despite that, the Transnistrian question seems to me like it could "easily" be solved by Moldova renouncing any sovereignty on the territory of Transnistria and then driving **hard** for membership in the EU, and especially in NATO. Let's be clear here, Moldova is in NO position to take on Russia militarily. They are the poorest nation in Europe. It really seems to me like this conflict is one specific example where stepping back and building up defenses is the best option. I mean, the Russians are already there anyway, right?
@@KingslayerSrbIsn't this Kosovo thing getting boring? Do you really want to forcefully retake Kosovo? If you think about it, there are only downsides in maintaining this harsh stance towards Kosovo. Nothings going to happen and if something were to happen, Serbia would inflict great harm to its citizens.
Moldova would be foolish to do anything other than to stay out of war /world politics, at least for now anyways, and do nothing. Later if Russia collapses, then maybe allow for this type talk out of pure necessity, but all talk like this now will earn Moldova is a flatted city burning in ruins in my opinion.
You lost me at "Moldova may try to size breakaway". 🤣 That country is soo poor, i don't think they have money for pistol ammunition, not something else. Corruption is on another level... Ive been there in 2016, the amount of corruption makes Ukraine look like little baby.
Thanks. I was careful. I didn't say that Moldova may try to seize it. I said that Transnistria and Russia had suggested that it might try to do it - hence Moscow's warning that it shouldn't even try. The whole video was about why I couldn't. And why it shouldn't. :-)
As a Romanian we recognize Moldova our sister country. Russia can’t stop the will of the people. I’m hoping transnitria won’t turn in to next West Bank ?? God forbid. We’re one nation. Putin must understand…
А мы у себя дома. Это вы Европа лезьте на наши земли. Видно опять хотите чтоб мы вам напомнили 1945 год. Вы наверное забыли. Если что мы можем напомнить вам 45 год. Только потом не пласте а нас за шо.
Russia do not need to attack Moldova UNLESS Moldova attacks Transnistria. At this point they would declare independence and ask for assistance to defend themselves. The Russians are a UN authorised peace keeper and a the trip wire. If Moldova attacked it would not end well. Moldova has started to blockade trade across the border. At some point, this will provoke a response, but we are along way from hostilities at the moment.
As for the economic blockade, Pridnestrovlje requested political help from Russia. This is a standard procedure that Russia must follow in the UN. It doesn't mean anything except in case of escalation the Russians can say you were officially warned.
"“We Szekelys have a right to be proud, for in our veins flows the blood of many brave races who fought as the lion fights, for lordship. Here, in the whirlpool of European races, the Ugric tribe bore down from Iceland the fighting spirit which Thor and Wodin gave them, which their Berserkers displayed to such fell intent on the seaboards of Europe, ay, and of Asia and Africa too, till the peoples thought that the werewolves themselves had come. Here, too, when they came, they found the Huns, whose warlike fury had swept the earth like a living flame, till the dying peoples held that in their veins ran the blood of those old witches, who, expelled from Scythia had mated with the devils in the desert. Fools, fools!” ― Bram Stoker, Dracula
Why should Modova attack Transnistria? The more historically and above all geopolitically logical solution for Moldova would be to take back the rest of the country's "western territory" east of the Carpathian mountains in order to revive the historical Principality of Moldavia, relegating Romania back to what it should be: Die Walachei (with all the attendant connotations that word has in German). Likewise, Transylvania (along with Dracula?) should become an independent state, or simply be ceded to Hungary. The restored Moldavia should then - along with Finland, the Baltic States, the Ukraine, Wallachia, Bulgaria and (who knows?... if the Russians are feeling particularly warm-hearted and generous during the negotiations) Belarus - form part of a neutral cordon sanitaire between Russia and the West. Because all this "eastward expansion" and excessive commitment to the defense of Eastern Europe, does NOT serve the economic or geopolitical interests of the United States, which, after all, are the kingmaker, financier and - put plainly - the puppetmaster of these spineless, worthless European vassals which are, more and more, becoming a distraction and military/economical burden for America whose main concerns lie elsewhere.
The current Republic of Moldova is not the inheritor of the Principality of Moldova - it's just a part of it called Bessarabia, grabbed by Russia in 1812 and incorporated into their empire under the name of Bessarabian oblast (initially) and Bessarabian governorate (later). The Principality of Moldova, with it's capital at Iasi, existed after this land grab. So it cannot have any claims towards the territories of the former Principality of Moldova which united the Principality of Valachia in 1859 to form the United Principalities of Moldova and Valahia, a state vasal to the Ottoman Empire, gaining its independence from it in 1877 under the name of Kingdom of Romania. Romance language speaking people from the former principalities of Moldova, Valahia, Transilvania are all ethnically Romanians, it's the term that defines their language and culture. It's funny to see how USSR and Russia tries to appropriate the name of "moldavian", creating a moldavian ASSR on the left bank of the Dniester river while the Bessarabian governorate re-united with the Kingdom of Romania in 1918. Even today, the full name of transnistria is the Moldavian Transnistrian Republic. Needless to say that this appropriation has no cultural nor linguistic grounds: Moldavians are the inhabitants on the territory of the former Principality of Moldova, speaking the same language like the people of Valachia or Transylvania and having the same culture, with it's local specifics - just like anywhere in this world.
Unless russia gets to Odessa i don,t think they will do anything with this. Russia also know that overstretching yourself is dangerous and also coming close to a NATO and EU member(Romania) is even more dangerous. If russia starts something against Moldova in this context, Romania is almost forced to also act in the view of Moldavan solidarity
They should ask Ukraine for help retaking transnistria, then give the northern 1/2 to them. With plans to join the EU soon and get some money for infrastructure.
The problem is that taking in half a million disgruntled Transnistrians could severely upset the political balance in Moldova and tip it back in a more pro-Russian direction. In many ways, this would be the better scenario for Moscow. This might explain why Ukraine has avoided acting against Transnistria, even though there has been some speculation that it might step in to end the Russian presence there. It could backfire badly.
Moldova will end up like Ukraine if it touches Transnistria. Just like NATO cannot change the outcome of the war in Ukraine, it will not be able to to do anything to change the fate of Moldova should Moldova make the same mistake as Ukraine.
Crazy how you barely mentioned Romania in this. Transnistria is a brake-away state of Moldova, which intern is a brake-away state of Romania. Before the war, 90% of Moldova’s energy came through Tiraspol straight from Russia at discounted prices. Transnistria had free energy btw. Now, after the war, 80% of Moldova’s energy comes from Romania, straight to Chişinău. As a Romanian citizen, I feel we have the duty to support our brothers in any ways they request, and that we should guarantee their borders. Another fact is that a substantial percentage of Moldova had Romanian citizenship. President Maia Sandu is organising a national referendum about European integration, this is her last year in term i think and it’s gonna set the course for Moldova for the years to come.
Posluşaite: Vî Amerikandosî...a vam kakoe delo do naşei Moldovâ... Da ni poşli li vî N@Hui raz i na vsegda ..tuda kvam za boliyşoi lujei...Aaaa...??? Ot..iIi.bitesi uje ot nas vseh....🙏 ✊ 💥
There are huge differences between the two cases. As I mentioned, the Transnistrians are much closer to the rest of the Moldovans than the Kosovo Albanians are to the Serbs. This is really a power dispute. Kosovo is genuinely an identity conflict. What would Serbia do if it retook Kosovo? Would it really be prepared to give them a third of all parliament and government seats? Would ordinary Serbs accept an Albanian deputy prime minister or vice president? Would Serbs really want to pay to support Kosovo? I know that you will say yes they would. But I know Serbia well enough to know that underneath all the "Kosovo je Srbija" posturing, most people know that Serbia is better off without Kosovo. They are just unhappy about how it was lost - a position I fully understand. I have argued that it was contrary to international law.
@@JamesKerLindsay Let's say if Moldova took Transnistria by force and Serbia did the same with Kosovo, the vast majority of Albanians living in Kosovo would return to their homeland for at least two reasons. The first reason is that they would run away from the conflict, and the second reason is because they would not want to live in Serbia, the country that just defeated them. Serbs who were expelled from Kosovo could return to their homes and Serbs would make up the majority of the population in Kosovo and Metohija. There would be no need for a third of the parliament, the prime minister and other nonsense. There are already representatives of minorities in the parliament, so there would be nothing new. The only difference is that one case corresponds to the West and the other does not. Cynicism in its purest form.
@@JamesKerLindsayIf it is your position that Serbia is better of without Kosovo, I don’t understand why you don’t argue that Azerbaijan was better of without Nagorno-Karabakh. Also since you are of the opinion that NK wasn’t ethnically cleansed in September 2023 after months of blockade and an offensive, I wonder what you will say if Serbia started an offensive against Kosovo and Serbian soldiers indiscriminately started firing at homes and destroying Albanian graves without being punished and the Albanians of Kosovo left. Would you still argue that everything was according to international law and that this didn’t constitute ethnic cleansing?
While Transnistria has a smaller size and population than Moldova, its army is larger and better equipped. For example it has tanks while Moldova has no tanks. So Moldova doesn't even have the capability to take Transnistria at moment, thus making this whole debate pointless.
I for 1 will not like Transnistra to be pact of Moldova but with Russian Troops and the country being pro Moscow I think it will be diserstrous if any other countries tried staging an insurrection or some sort of disobedience because they don't play I had friend from that part who finished serving a 6yrs sentence for political disobedience he got shipped from the penal colony back home said kid worst thing I am ever going to do ❤
@@JamesKerLindsay transnistria is already under siege, the longer the war continues the untenable it will be! There should be no negotiations with Putin's stooges
In cyprus Turks inhabited North was made a separate Turkish province,,,,, Falkand island despite being away from mainland UK is still British andso Russian speaking Transnistriahas every right to have separate existence
Moldovans can come attack Transnitria, they failed to subjugate the local Russians in the first time, won’t mean the local Russians will surrender their independence in the next time.
When 27 European states are members of the EU, and many more want to join or have close relations, the EU is now essentially Europe. And why does the existence of the EU (which is anything but a "dictatorship") preclude NATO security? I'm all for having a serious discussion, but can we at least start with a serious point?
It would cancel their pending EU membership, most countries outside of the west would condemn it, China would be given a reason to supply Russia militarly because legally they can just say they're helping against aggression, etc etc. There's a reason not even Ukraine has touched Transnistria alongside Moldova, because it would be a diplomatic shitstorm and a massive strategic diplomatic failure.
I wouldn't be surprised if at some point Ukraine intervenes in Moldova and ejects Russian peacekeepers to Belarus. It would be one more way the Ukraine could put pressure on Europe to deliver battlefield weapons to avoid Ukraine "escalating" the conflict. After all, there have been incursions across the Ukraine border into Russia. I'm sure Moldova could protest quite loudly this Ukrainian violation of its sovereignty, and then restart more talks that never go anywhere.
There is literally 0 reason for Ukraine to do that. They're already struggling to hold onto the territory they have and take back what they can when they can. Also, this would in no way "put pressure" on Europe. Let's be clear, most Europeans do not give the slightest fuck about Transinistria, I honestly don't even think Moldovans do and I know many of them. Most people who aren't well-versed in geopolitics or who live in the region have no idea what this place even is. I grew up in Romania and I had no idea what Transinistria was till I was in my 20s. As was stated in the video, this isn't really similar to other conflicts like Azerbaijan vs. Armenia where the two sides hate each other and would gladly do another ethnic cleansing. There's no real enmity between Moldovans and Transinistrans. It's not like Moldova is 100% Moldovan and then Transinistria is 100% Russian. There's Russians and Romanians in both places. And many Moldovans are practically Russian themselves, at least culturally. Neither side here is interested in dying over some utterly valueless strip of land.
@@bigbeautifulape5283I would add that in most EU countries (especially those that were in before the 90's) the ACTUAL public doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine also. Now granted that the media are working 24/7 to change that and those who get invitations for parties in Davos most certainly care. But if you go out on the streets and speak to random people you will get answers that are closer to the reality of this conflict.
Does this mean that it is feasable for Serbia to retake lost territory also? After all Serbia lost territory due to military action as did Moldova. Let us be careful with making bold statements. Good and peaceful relations may pay greater dividends in the long run.
@@2Dylandog Unfortunately, wether something is feasable or not, seems to be in the eye of the beholder, their chosen narrative and their political aims.
I wonder why Russia abandoned Armenia too it's fate 🤔. When you think about it, why should Russia maintain an Armenian break away region when the actual Armenian government couldn't be bothered and had in reality already written the breakaway regions. Armenia has set it's face to the west, NATO and the EU, for Russia the choice is simple, Azerbaijan will make a more reliable security partner
@@mythbuster6126 Yes, they defended Germany by ripping the bandaid of oil reliance on Russia off. It had to happen or else Germany compromises EU security interests.
I think they are different situations. Transnistrians are Russians and speak Russian, for instance, while Armenians are a completely different culture. Furthermore, Russia and Azerbaijan enjoy very good relations which isn't the same case with Russia and Moldova. Finally, Azerbaijan has taken much more concrete steps to modernize its military while Moldova hasn't.
I'm still baffled by how 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria get supplied given that they border the Ukraine on one side and Moldova on the other, there's no obvious route in, as it must involve Russian supplies crossing one of those two countries. Was there some deal in the 1990s peace deal that allows the Russian military safe passage that both Moldova and the Ukraine still follow?
This is a brilliant point. I have always wondered about this as well. Now that the border with Ukraine is closed, one can only assume that the garrison is effectively trapped unless Russia has a standing agreement with Moldova to allow its citizens to enter or has found another way to infiltrate them. But I can't imagine that they can bring in any weapons. It would be interesting to hear from anyone who can answer this.
@@JamesKerLindsayI think what is left of the 14th Guards (about 1,500) are by now mainly Transnistrians in Russian Uniforms so the issue of transit through Chisinău airport is mute.
@@JamesKerLindsayIt’s also worth noting that the only paths between Transnistria and Russia that don’t cross Ukrainian territory must cross NATO territory.
@@cdhblackwell The rank and file are mostly locals I believe. IIRC The Russians used to rotate officers and technical specialists using commercial flights but the Moldovans shut that down. On paper, one of the reasons the Russian troops are there is to maintain and guard massive Soviet era ammo dumps that were left in place so they can draw on that, at least until it passes its best by dates.
@@cm275they could live of it for decades that ammo dump can fund whole of Moldova. It was one if reason transtrions won at first place even after being outnumbered they had better equipment
No thank you, that would be a poor decision. Transnistria has only been a plague for Moldova post-USSR. A new Kaliningrad is a no-no so there remain two scenarios: either an independent Transnistria or its dismantling along ethnic lines, aka the regions in the North which are more Romanian/Moldovan left to Moldova, the regions in the South which are more Ukrainian/Russian given to Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian territories which are majority Romanian/Moldovan. That way Moldova can unite with Romania and get in the EU, because the EU "admission" is a trick, the EU won't receive any new members for a long time, Ukraine and Moldova have been conned and I think by now they've figured it out that they're meant to be buffer states until relations with Russia cool off.
Да мы это уже видели во время СССР "по этническому признаку" сам СССР высялили ночью сотни тысяч человек и заселяли "русскими специалистами" а спустя 100 лет а давайте делить по этническому признаку, посмотрите на карту Молдовы до вхождения в колхоз СССР и что осталось при выходе из СССР, потом сама Россия изобретатель Преднистрофию и Автономного Гагаузери, и я не удивлюсь если не найдут дипломатических консенсуса могут и Оргеевскую Народную Республику -Шора изобретать
@@sergiubargan2970 Ma bucur ca te consideri roman, am scris "moldovean" tocmai ca sa nu te simti jignit in caz ca identitatea de roman nu e ceva ce iti place. Nu am inteles de ce ai scris in chirilic, noi folosim alfabetul latin, pe ambele maluri ale Prutului. Acum ca am lamurit ca suntem de aceeasi parte poti sa imi explici unde anume consideri ca gresesc.
@@MMerlyn91 conceptul de clasificării teritoriului național a unui stat Independent după proveniența etnică este o aberație s-au varianta prototip-modernizată a (Federalizării r. Moldova) , stim noi bine cine insistat cu asemenea proiecte de soluționare (Cozak) , defrișarea teritoriului administrativ al Republicii Sovietice Socialiste Moldovenești s-a produs cam după același concept , astfel r. Moldova după URSS a rămas fără Bucovina și fără esirea la Marea Neagră, fără Transnistria și fără Autonomia Găgăuză ...... Un om normal cu scaun la cap nu poate percepe dezmembrarea r Moldova înt-un astfel de hal, mă tem că sunteți dintre acei care scriu comentarii pentru trei copeici la vreo fermă de trolli de prin aceeași Transnistrie
With all the geopolitical considerations you have which are extremely valid, I can't help but to ponder about your extreme worry about drawing new borders, it feels unnatural and undemocratic! If people feel different enough that they wish to be independent and not subjugated to a majority then let them be the founders of their new country with its geographical disadvantages and quirks: At least the inhabitants will only have themselves to blame for their difficulties.
The population of Transnistria is mostly pro-Russian. This applies not only to the Slavs (Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, and Gagauzes=semi-Turkified Bulgars), who constitute 62% of the total, but to many of the Romanians, including the so called "ethnic Moldovans," too. Also, do not forget that many Ukrainian nationalists believe that Transnistria should belong to Ukraine.
Very good analysis. Glad that you mentioned a tricky electoral balance as a major factor of holding the conflict frozen. Just want to add a piece why previous pro-Russian government wasn’t so keen to unify as well, even winning in terms of additional electorate for them - it’s a grey economic area where a lot of Moldovan money laundering is happening. For many this status-quo is too precious to lose.
Moldova was among the first victims of Russia's strategy of provoking a conflict in another country, then freeze it (while offering to be the "peacekeeper."). A sick joke, indeed.
I was of the opinion that Ukraine and Moldova should team up on Transnistria and split the weapons, but after watching this video I am now of the opinion that Moldova will be able to peacefully reintegrate the area one day. Thank you for informing my opinion.
Moldova is in no position for a fight. There armed forces are less than 15,000 men. An Russian spends Alot of money buying influence to sow dissention. Moldova reclaiming the land could lead to Russia trying to buy a coup. Even if it doesn't work it's still Alot of trouble to clean up.
Thank you so much. I agree. I think a lot is also going to depend on what happens in Ukraine. But in the meantime it would make sense to leave Transnistria as it is.
Moldova should let go of Transistria imo. The teritorry is a burdain and what it has to offer is far less than it takes aways from Moldova's functionality as a state. If they mak enew borders behind the Dnister then they can explore far easier other paths like European intergration and even Romanian reunification.
Could be a modern day Singapore in terms of forced independence if Moldova sees a peaceful move into the EU and not bothering with the costs of taking it back
Singapore strategic control of the strait of Malacca and deep ports US$3.5 trillion of global trade navigates through its waters mostly too and from --- wait for it! China I also wish Moldova had a Geographic Jewel like this
Что вы тут пургу гоните Уонистов в Молдове @десять процентов .остальные Молдоване гагаузы, ураинцы, руссие. И никто не хочет присоединятся к Ромонии не вриите
There has been growing discussion in the news about Moldova and Transnistria. But while it would seem that a military solution is not on the cards, do you see an opportunity for a peaceful settlement? And how would it play out? Or is recent speculation driven by Russia to justify some action against Moldova? Perhaps it is designed to lay the groundwork for annexing Transnistria? So, what do you think is going on? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
اين ترجمة عربية
Putin did not even recognise Moldova voting for Transnistria independence. I guess you should start with that. Moldova has the same exact problem as Ukraine, you have few nations , biggest poverty together with Ukraine and people who remember Soviet Union when it was better. Half of Moldavians wants Romania to annex them and most of Transnistrians want Russia because they have Soviet culture. Btw people in Transnistria are the nicest people you’ll ever meet.
Can both options be true at the same time? Russia always has a plan it’s working on but if Moldova stays on its current path I do think a peaceful solution is possible in time. They just need patience.
Clearly any kind of re-incorporation of Transnistria back into Moldova needs to be accompanied by resettlement of its pro-Russian population. They could be offered safety passage back to Russia. Experience in Ukraine shows that non-native Russia settlers are a threat to territorial integrity of neighboring countries..
After the war in the 90s relationships between Moldova and Transnistria were not a significant issue. The only reason Transnistria may become a focal point is the conflict between the west and Russia. Internally there is a division in both Moldova and Transnistria, as a significant part of their ethnically diverse populations is pro-Russian or pro-peace, they don't want to get involved. But NATO and EU may use Moldova and Transnistria to try to score a win against Russia. They can use their NGOs, money and pro-western and western-educated elites in Moldova. The best for Moldova and Transnistria will be if the conflict between the west and Russia is not expanded and kept within Ukraine.
The Moldovans will not try anything militarily. For multiple reasons. Those that you mentioned, but also the fact that they don't know how the war in Ukraine will end. The Russians might get Odessa in the future and thus get to Moldova too. Also, the population in Transnistria, although only 28% ethnically Russian, is deeply committed to Russia. They might not be Russians, but they do identify with the Russian cultural and social space. If Transnistria would get integrated into Moldova, that would change the electoral space there. Now the pro-European camp barely manages to get over 50%. Add Transnistria to it and I don't know if you will ever get again a pro-European majority. And I don't think that pro-European people from proper Moldova would be too happy about this.
Thanks so much. I completely agree. I did try to highlight that, as paradoxical as it might seem, incorporating Transnistria could actually be the best outcome for Moscow, at least in the short term. I didn’t really touch on the Ukraine angle. But this is of course vital. If Russia loses, then I think we will see a very different picture emerge.
@@JamesKerLindsay If Russia loses... OMG you people are going to kill us all.... you really dont get it...
@@JamesKerLindsayif necessary Kyiv has offered to take care of Transnistria militarily should they be asked. I imagine Ukraine feels threatened (stick) by the smallish Russian garrison and the less small PMR forces coupled with the potential prize (carrot) of the munitions in the extensive Cobasna ammo-dump. One would imagine thanks to the current pressing shortage (thx to internal US politics & the usual European arsing around) that temptation is not far away for long. However whether or not the materiel remaining in Cobasna is in usable condition and can a SpecOps strike take it intact (boobytrapped) may be a/the key point.
28% of Russians and 23% of Ukraina People from the current population in Transnistria of 450,000 I believe, added to 2,6m of current residents in MD will make the number of Russians + Ukro to barely 5% total exRSSM population, so the pro-Europeanness will hardly be affected. M. Sandu will not win next elections. There might well be won by Dodon.
Yep Democracy actually hurts us in this case. The government could technically due an economic embargo and Transnistria would collapse within a month ( there are a lot of dumb benefits that are finally being rolled back made by corrupt Moldovan politicians in the 90's that helped Transnistria as well) But like you mentioned the voters there would always vote pro-Russian if they came over thus preventing the state from ever truly solving the problem in short time
Transnistria is more of a headache for Ukraine than it is for Moldova at the moment. Ukrainian politicians have suggested several times that they could retake Transnistria for Moldova, but apparently this isn't what Moldova wants. As you're saying, having to integrate a potentially hostile pro-Russian population does not seem to be in the current government's interest.
Thanks. Exactly. And one can see why this wouldn't be in Ukraine's interest either. It is far better to have a pro-EU Moldova on its southwestern border than to step in to "solve" Transnistria, only to find that this opens the way for Moldova to become pro-Russian. This would explain why Ukraine has avoided attacking Transnistria. Also, while the Russian garrison is small, many Transnistrians would probably take up arms to fight off a Ukranian attack. This could make the conflict far bloodier than it might seem at first. Better not to take the risk unless absolutely necessary.
@@JamesKerLindsay no, do not compare your brits fighting off the Americans.
What are you even talking about?
@@JamesKerLindsay Technically Moldova/Ukraine could place the area under military occupation. Much as the Southern USA was during Reconstruction. This would solve the problem of ending the Russian threat, without the problems of political integration. Of course, this wouldn't be conducive to a peaceful co-existence between Transnistrians and Moldovans, and has the risks associated with the relationship between Israel and Palestine.
(Of course, Moldova and Ukraine would have to successfully gain control of the area in the first place, which is not a given, considering how condensed and comparatively urbanised Transnistria is.)
@@JamesKerLindsaythis is false in the same way Crimea and Donbas is false. A large part of the reason they are pro- Russian is because they are occupied by Russian troops. Crimea wasn't pro Russian until the little green men appeared. You take the Russian military out of transnistria and it is just a bunch of old people who want to live peaceful lives.
Excited about you covering this topic. I visited Tiraspol in 2019 and after the invasion I've often thought it's been overlooked as a complicating factor.
Thanks so much. I'd be keen to hear what you think is really going on. It really doesn't make a lot of sense. While Moldova is being more assertive, there seems little likelihood that Moldova is eyeing up military action. Do you see peaceful reunification? Or do you think that maybe Moldova is planning on doing something, depending on how the war in Ukraine develops?
Even though Moldova is not in nato yet they have been receiving training and military aid from nato and the United States but a peaceful reunion would probably be best solution for now !
@@JamesKerLindsay yes reunification like Taiwan separatist with China.Why Taiwan separatis are so special and International Low doe't aplaid for them.What is diference ?
@@JamesKerLindsay Reunification of a Stalin's present at thé Price of a War ? Insane and ridiculous. Never had Transnistria bé part of thé historical principality of Moldova and Tiraspol was built in 1792 by général Suvorov. Transnistria will bé back to mother Russia. Wisdom on behalf of Moldova would bé to accept it for thé good of all.
@@JamesKerLindsay Agree that there's little likelihood of Moldova taking military action. It would galvanize pro-Russia sentiment and it's much wiser to wait and see how dwindling subsidies and the limitation of preferential trade opportunities play out for Tiraspol and Sheriff.
there is no need for military, when Transnistria is totally dependent on Moldova. they can just be squeezed to merge back
I feel that Transnistria is one of those cases where there's a deep disconnect between outsiders looking in and the people living there day-to-day. For me, it's obvious that Transnistria should reintegrate to Moldova. Imagine all the benefits which would come with moving Westward politically! And how can they believe their tiny sliver of land will ever prosper as it is? Yet clearly they don't feel that way, and that ethnic and cultural ties, as well as history, has shaped a radically different outlook to this question. Our imagined worlds are often much more important than the real world.
Thanks so much Emma. Brilliant point. You are absolutely right. This is why I always tell my students that one of the most important lessons in policy analysis is to understand that what people perceive to be real is real in its consequences. It’s not what we understand to be the objective truth that matters in a situation, it’s what the parties to a situation believe to be the reality that will shape their actions. It is a vital lesson. We might all know that EU membership would be to their benefit, but if they see it as alien and hostile and believe that Russia is still their best option they will resist a deal.
@EmmaMaySeven Transdnistria has done pretty well as being a 'grey area' between Europe and the Ukraine/Russia.
@@JamesKerLindsayMaybe the fact that ''Moldavia'' is always mentioned in the context of strippers and prostitutes within EU countries, until the Russo-Ukrainian war, play some reason for having second thoughts about the benefits of being a fourth gear EU country. A membership in the EU as it was meant to be yes, could be very beneficial. This EU, which is basically a nest of neo-liberal (and now neo-con) vampires, has nothing of substance to offer. Even to a Borat-land.
It's completely irrational, but a lot of people are irrational. People's emotions cloud their judgement. I believe it's that simple if you drill right down.
Yep I mean they trade more with the EU than Russia. The Pro-Russia mentality is due too Soviet brainwashing. Remember Transnistria was mostly part of Ukraine but was made an autonomous region in Moldova when the Soviet stole Moldova from Romania as a means too try and prevent a reunion (which is inevitable at some point) Transitria only survives cause of basically free Russian gas. Average Moldovan doesn't really even care about Transnistria
Love this channel and its unequivocal professionalism. May peace come to Europe! And may democracy rein!
Thank you so much. Let's hope!
Democracy 😂😂😂
Excellent synopsis. Thank you.
And hello from Puerto Rico.
Now there's a territory that could win big from secession, by adopting a smart tax regime.
@@EdMcF1 Agreed. Unfortunately, a small percentage of the population favors independence in our country. That’s one of the consequences of being a colony of both Spain and the US for so long… but we will keep pushing for independence.
& I agree, an excellent and serious, but understandable presentation. Buenas noches desde México.
Thanks so much. Warmest greetings from my end as well! :-) And I must do an update on Puerto Rico.🇵🇷
Error in the video 82% are romanians and moldovans (not 75%), with 75% moldovans and 7% romanians, they are technically the same nation and ethnic group named differently.
Yes and no. One would suspect that there's a political point being made here. While most Moldovans may see themselves as Romanians, there may well be many who reject this for whatever reason, even if they speak Romanian. Identity can be a strange thing in these situations. Also, some may be of mixed marriages and prefer to identify as Moldovans in a civic sense rather than opting for an ethnic identification.
@@JamesKerLindsay I'm sorry to say, you didn't get the meaning of the word "Moldovan". There are millions of Moldovans also in Romania and all of them call themselves Romanians. To be Moldovan means to be a Romanian from the province called Moldova, just as to be Transylvanian means to be a Romanian from the province called Transylvania. So "Moldovan" means "Romanian from Moldova", where "Moldova" can mean the country Moldova or the province of Moldova, which remained in Romania after the war against Russia.
"Moldovan" is like you would say, for instance, in Italy: Milanese, Lombard, Florentine, Genovese or Napoletano - all these are Italians.
So Moldovan and Romanian are synonyms, if you want.
did you see 2014 calculation of population data?
2% russians and 3 % of Ukro left in MD. so MD people are more than 90% right now.
@@Cosimoro72 foarte corect 👋 ♥ romania 🇲🇩. Sunt rusi in Moldova dar noi suntem dacii liberi si vorbim romaneste limba noastra daco romana. Salutari din Romania 🇷🇴 de la o fata din Jiu jianca.
@CosimoRomania this is about romanian moldavians who live in the historical region of Moldova (Iași, Botoșani, Bacău etc) .
As a moldavian from the republic of Moldova (Basarabia) i call myself moldovean , after that i call myself romanian as well , the bigger picture ,but first I'm moldovean . Just like Scottish and welsh in UK , they are not english but british in the end . This is how is see it , romanian is the larger identity , but ardelean, munteam, moldovean etc are coming first .
hi from Moldova 🇲🇩🙂
Hello! Warmest greetings! 🙂
Hi professor. Is it correct from a legal standpoint to say that "Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh" when in fact before last September it had never directly controlled the region ever since it got its independence from the Soviet Union?
Modern day Azerbaijan is a direct continuation of Soviet Azerbaijan
@@kostam.1113 That's a fair point. But I could argue that the one that exerted the real control was the Soviet Union and not the Azerbaijan SR. Besides, Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous region with a very high degree of autonomy and they were essentially self-govern
Does Modolva have the military capability to actually take the region by force?
Thanks. That's the key point of the video. It doesn't. This is the curious thing about the situation. Why did Russia issue a warning over something that will almost certainly not happen? Two years ago, it would have looked like it was preparing the ground to justify an invasion. But it can't do that anymore. But the interesting thing is that Russia might be better off having Transnistria back in Moldova.
@@JamesKerLindsay People in Transnistria wants to join Russia and they actually asked so recently and around 220K Russian speaking people live there. But Russia is not considering officially in any terms for now. When Moldova starts to suppress these people, the conflict will break out for sure and nothing can be done to stop Russia from taking it (
Sources: Politico, CNN, bloomberg )
I would advise to watch Jacques baud analysis on Former US colonel davis channel to see through the history of Ukraine conflict. Also, please both of them served in NATO and not Putin propagandists. Especially, Davies who somewhat still believes Russia is ***t and 3 days kiev story still. You won't be disappointed
Here is the link: th-cam.com/video/qlQVnTsUQtk/w-d-xo.html
@@JamesKerLindsay the warning by Moscow was to tell their brothers in Transnistria ,by reassuring them" don`t worry guy`s, we have your back" so, not to follow Armenia a traditional ally of Russia, down the western road (EU and/or Nato)
In 1992 the Moldovan military had three full motor-rifle brigades, an artillery of brigade and other support units along with a functioning and combat capable air force and yet they were unable to restore control over the russian held area of their Country.
Now the Moldovians due to the mess their country is in have three badly undermanned brigades, a unit of artillery (I don't believe they have enough functioning artillery for a brigade anymore), no air force, etc. What was in the early 1990s was a standard through small military is now left with poorly maintained junk; It's like they are struck in the 80s as shown in the video. They have officially increased the military budget and updating but the new equipment they have gotten are so limited in quantity that it's basically meaningless, along with a refusal to increase military numbers for their country. So Moldova right now has no chance of freeing their whole country.
The russian puppets also have an old equipped military, suffer from spare manpower, however their military size is around the same as Moldova, they sit on soviet occupation era stockpiles, and unlike Moldova they do have tanks.
Until Moldova develops a military that is better than their historical equivalent in 1992 (Which is basically impossible due to the high costs of some stuff like Fighter Jets and Moldavian corruption), and has ways to deal with the russian population post-victory, Moldova is sadly in no State to kick out the colonisers.
@@JamesKerLindsay I'm Romanian and I see this topic often here, "what would/should do Romania if Russian troops reached Transnistria and war broke out". And the general consensus seem to be that Romania would most certainly intervene militarily to help the Romanian brothers. One way or the other. Any politician who would try to say otherwise would have to flee the country, probably. :)
And Romania HAS an army of 80.000 and can easily mobilize another 4,5 million soldiers. A NATO standard army.
As you know, "Moldova" means today two things: a country AND a region of Romania. Basically, the old Romanian region "Moldova" was split in two, Russia managing to capture only half of it. The other half remained in Romania. Later, during the 1960s if I remember correctly, some parts from the occupied half were incorporated in Ukraine and they are now part of the independent Ukraine. So, you see, when I say "brothers", this term can be taken literally in so many cases.
On the other hand, most people say that the Russians from Transnistria (30% of the population who lives there) are not that bad, most of them are good people, they definitely don't want war, they don't want Putin or Russia, so a peaceful solution is clearly possible.
Next month, I will have the opportunity to visit Moldova and Transnistria ..the feedback from folk i know there,there seems little support for a Moldovan intervention ..the damage ,even if such a move was successful ,would be counter-productive ,turning Trans. as the `victim` . And of course ,the tax payers in Moldovia would be footing the economic bill of that reunification( and a sizable Trans. population that is hostile to such action... and perhaps taking partizan action against Moldovan forces and institutes..
Moldova is not a NATO member. I wouldn’t risk 100% of my current territory for 10% more. From risk point of view it has high downside and low upside.
I was actually in Moldova 🇲🇩 last year on my way to Ukraine. In the capital there was a huge rally to join the European Union. Unfortunately I didn't have time to visit Transnistria, I'm sure it would have been a different experience.
Pray not another war... Please
I hope that someday they can just chillout and be nice to each other
The really interesting thing about this conflict is that it isn't as strictly ethnically based as other separatist disputes. A third of Transnistrians are Moldovans. And a quarter are Ukranians. By all accounts, the two sides interact relatively freely. It really does seem to be about vested interests in certain quarters.
@@JamesKerLindsaycertainly the Sheriff 'organisation' is one such 'interest'!?
Excellent analysis.
I do think the only way for a stable peaceful future is by following the example set after the second world war.
People were moved between territories by recognising the facts on the ground.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, lots of questions were left unanswered, many have resolved themselves, others still searching for an answer.
By following that same formula, I think it's possible to find a lasting solution, and a peaceful Europe. There's a reason Europe was largely free of major conflicts since the second world war, just follow what has worked before.
Chișinău has no interest in starting a military conflict or unrest for the forseable future. It's already difficult enough to make sure the country stays on a EU trajectory, and that's where all the focus is atm. Maia Sandu has repeatedly emphasized that her govt seeks out a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
how does Kosovo differ from Transnistria or the Donbas
Very good question. In a strictly legal sense, it doesn’t. (But I’m not the persons to argue with about this. I was very critical about the way that Kosovo’s status was handled in 2008 and I wrote a book on why it was so problematic.) That said, in a political sense, it always made sense for Serbia to let Kosovo go its own way, especially in the context of the dissolution of Yugoslavia.
Donbas is different in the sense that it has been formally annexed. Transnistria hasn't been annexed by Russia nor Kosovo by Albania.
@@seneca983Both territories were taken by force off sovereign countries no difference.
@@bilic8094 It's incorrect to say "both" since 3 territories were mentioned, not 2. In any case, whether the territory gets (formally) annexed by another country is a meaningful difference.
Kosovo is supported by the Western & NATO powers, while Donbas, Crimea and Transnistria aren't.
And since they aren't supported by the collective West that means they can't break away from Ukraine and Moldova.
What is the current state of Moldova's economy and military? I don't know that much about that region, but a look on the map show it's gonna be very difficult to invade due to geography and the economic situation
I don’t think Russia would be capable of defending them. Armenia is arguably a closer ally and Russia did nothing to help them.
The two aren't even remotely similar. Moldova has no real allies and it's a pathetically poor state with a tiny population situated in an area without any mountains. Azerbaijan not only has more people, but it's in a geographical location that's much easier to defend, and they're rich as fuck. A lot of other very wealthy and very powerful countries have an interest in Azerbaijan not devolving into war. The whole energy infrastructure of the future is being built around Azeri oil.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 Bro, what?
GDP per capita:
*Azerbaijan* - $7,530
*Moldova* - $6,411
GDP (PPP) per capita:
*Azerbaijan* - $18,694
*Moldova* - $16,916
The 2 countries are about the same economically.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 And although Moldova's closest ally (Romania) isn't as powerful as Turkey (Azerbaijan's closest ally), still Moldova *too* has "very wealthy and very powerful countries" that have a strong interest in it (and the region at large) not devolving (further) into war... namely, the EU, lol. It also just signed a defense agreement with France.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 Minimum wage today:
*Moldova* - €260 (~$673 PPP)
*Azerbaijan* - €187 (~$505 PPP)
Average net wage:
*Moldova (2023)* - €557 ($1,291 PPP)
*Azerbaijan (2022)* - €364 ($1,189 PPP)
Moldova overtakes Azerbaijan here...
HDI Moldova: 0.763 (rank 86th)
HDI Azerbaijan: 0.760 (rank 89th)
The countries are def very similar both economically & in their development.
@@dyawr GDP per capita and minimum wage are irrelevant to the economic power of a resource-rich state. Azerbaijan can have poor citizens but it's still an economic power due to oil and gas production in the Caspian Sea. Russia has running economic agreements with all the Caspian Sea states. There was no reason to shoot itself in the knee for a state that would not stand up for its own people's ethnic enclave.
the trap that the West would like
Moldova is a small tiny country like Djibouti 🇩🇯 with a micro-satellite armies, that cannot fight a war of attrition, rather they can only afford to secure their internal security. Moldova and Transnistrian will resolve in peaceful negotiation, NATO has no room to involves because of territorial conflicts and Russia wouldn't invades unless NATO rise up this conflict, Thank you, great insights 👍
Read a book by Moldovan author Tatiana Țîbuleac recently. In an interview she said that she doesn't consider it an error when people identify her as a Romanian writer, as "Moldovan authors always saw themselves as belonging to Romanian literature". I haven't read any authors from Transnistria though.
Popular Moldovans identify as Romanian because most of them end up moving to Romania and living there. It's not a great country by any means, but incomparably better compared to living in Moldova. Normal Moldovans don't feel that way. Quite the opposite. Unless they're super liberal and progressive, most of them strongly identify as Moldovan and will hate you if you imply they're Romanian. They're (I'd say pretty justifiably) incredibly resentful of Romanians for getting into NATO, getting into the EU, and in general just being a real country and not some half-way Russified satellite state.
They're very proud of their culture and of being Moldovan, since for many of them, that's literally all they have.
Actually Moldavia was a thing way before Romania ever was.
@@joek600 Romania means - Moldova, Wallachia,Transylvania, Dobrogea (Dobrudja) regions ,we were the same in the past , but divided by foreign powers! - empires! Ottomans, Tsarist Russia, Austro-Hungary ! IMAGINE to be in the middle , squeezed by 3 powerful neighbors (empires!) it's a miracle that we made to unify these romanian (EX PRINCIPALITIES) in the past (remember - romanians were in MAJORITY even in the past ,despite foreign occupations) ...many centuries needed to wait in patience to unify these historical provinces for romanians... HUGE PATIENCE! and some bit of luck , to do this in the right moment ,in the right place (WW1)
@@bigbeautifulape5283 lol ok thanks for the laugh.
Because Transnistria was never historically Romanian /
Moldavian territory.
Thanks for another great video, Professor. Could you share your thoughts on the future of international law considering what’s happening around the world. What could be done proactively to replace the existing system and rules if the current system is becoming untenable due to the lawlessness of actors like Russia.
Moldova is on course to join the EU, any war would damage its application process for no real gain in terms of the economy which is on its knees. You never mentioned the war of 1990 between Moldova and Transnistria ?
I always love the historical context that all other conversations of this ilk lack! 👍🏻👍🏻🇦🇺
3:38 Нет! Румыния оккупировала (не присоединила) Молдавию силой оружия, а не "Молдова воспользовалась". Кто ее спрашивал? И конечно, СССР не признал румынскую оккупацию своей земли. При СССР после 2 Мировой войны не было никаких румынских националистических настроений, Румыния была союзником СССР. Что вы все переделываете? Румыния младше Молдовы на 400 лет! Какие могут быть претензии? Это у Молдовы могут быть претензии, чтоб вернуть румынские земли!
As a citizen of Moldova, I am strongly against military actions. But if it was to degenerate - without help of Ukraine and Romania - it will be hard to solve the issue once and for all.
Instead, I think the reintegration could be possible step by step, small steps, big steps and eventually separatists will fall(not all people on the left bank are separatists).
There is one strategic issue - huge interdependence between constitutional side and separatist region, on one side it is electrical power (good news - right now they effectively started building direct connection to Romania, as now, most energy coming from Romania still goes through Ukraine and separatist region of Moldova, those soviet bastards specifically built all industry on the left bank, keeping right bank rural). And separatists export most of their goods to EU, benefiting from the deals between Moldova and EU. Also they get money from the energy produced from "free" gas from russia.
There are many variables, but progress is being made. Moldova's government last year started a national program to learn Romanian language (as still there are people who migrated here during russian occupation(and sometimes their progeniture) and didn't learn the language. And guess what - this year there were like twice more requests than initially expected, including from the left bank. But after connecting properly electric networks of Romania and Moldova, this will be a huge gameover for separatist regime. Extra economic measures will be introduced, and they will either yield/run, or be killed by the people on the left bank.
Thanks. I completely agree. I don't think a military solution is the way to approach this. For all the reasons I discussed, it is far better to keep up the carrots and sticks on Transnistria. And you are right: there will be many in Transnistria who will not fear unification, especially if a good political model is put on the table and it comes with EU-supported investment. It's really interesting to hear about the Romanian language classes.
hello, can you please talk about saudi foreign policy in the recent years
Why can't the Transnistrians just move to Russia? More than enough space there for them.
They'd face call-up for starters.
@EdMcF1 Indeed. I did think that this has probably played a part in shifting support for Russia, especially amongst young men - and their parents, and sisters, and aunts and uncles.
facepalm
They’re more valuable to Russia as a nuisance to Moldova than as actual Russian citizens.
Maybe a freightning question, but what about using russian tactics? The major problem for the Moldovan Goverment is the Russians living in Transnistria, that would then be the majority in the country. What if, and I dont support this in any way, but when the moldovan government would relocate the russians in any shape or form?
Ваше лживое представление поражает. Румыния, как искусственно созданное западом государство, образовалось позднее Бессарабии, румынский язык сформировался позднее молдавского языка. И самая бессовестная ложь: вы отрицаете существование молдаван, гагаузов, хотя это как минимум отдельные национальности, имеющие свои языки, тогда как вы называете их румыноговорящими ( а ведь молдоване государствообразующий народ, а не какие не румыны). Румыния участвовала во Второй мировой войне на стороне Гитлера. Румынские войска зверствовали на территории Советского Союза, в частности особенно на территории Одессы, которая в этот период, как и в период основания, являлась русским городом. Поэтому вся политика запада направлена на захват, подчинение исконно русских или союзных России государств. Западная гитлеровская Европа, проигравшая во Второй мировой войне, пытается снова спровоцировать, развязать войну на европейском континенте. Постоянно провоцирует Россию. И это плохо закончится для европейских государств. Прекратите провоцировать войну, господа европейцы.
100%. Самое печальное, что этот бред он несёт в массы. Когда они столкнутся с реальностью будет уже поздно
Parts of all European nations participated in the attacks on Russia under the leadership of Napoleon, under the leadership of the Germans and Austrians in WWI and under the leadership of Hitler in WWII. Now for the fourth time the Europeans are attacking Russia, this time under the leadership of the Americans and the English, but in such a way that the Europeans are in the front lines.
Part of the Europeans understood the Anglo-Saxon deception, and those who did not will leave their bones in the Russian land as in all three previous times.
I support Russia but wasnt Romania created out of Wallachia, Transylvania and Moldova? Reublic of Moldova is mostly Bessarabia.
Просто они хотят разбудить Русского Медведя . Потом будут как Усраинцы говорить а нас за шо. Хотят войны будит это. Думаю никому не нужна это война но они вынуждают Россию. Только потом пусть не плачут а нас за шо.
Who IS attacking Who? Moldova IS hosting Nato forces to confront Russia.The act of preparing to attack is same as Attacking when war IS already wedding arming the parts
The west theoretically Supporting Moldova invading Transnistria would be flat out hypocrisy, after criticising Russia for doing something similar, to me it looks like big trouble anyway, if Tranistria has managed to keep that mixed population living in harmony best left well alone, an invasion could stir up real problems , And Moldova could bite off more than it could chew
Good afternoon James
I find the ethnic composition of Transnistria interesting - would like to know if any polling has been done on the 23% Ukrainians in the breakaway state. It is probable that they moved at a time when Ukraine was very pro-Moscow, but then, many of those who previously held such views, especially in cities like Odesa (not far away from Transnistria), have since changed their views - and so, if the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed their views on Russia in itself.
Also, if there is a military action, would it not be difficult for Russia to manage, given the original plan back in 2022 of establishing a 'land-bridge' upto Transnistria has failed ?
A great insightful video as always and keep up the good work.
it all depends on age, not ethnic origin. pensioners for Russia and Putin. youth for europe
Transnistrie was aggregated to Moldova by Stalin in 1940. Before it never was part of historical Moldova. In 1792 it was taken by thé russian empire from thé Ottomans and thé current capital city of Transnistrie was built thé same year by Russian général Suvorov. So no historical rights from Moldova to take back Transnistrie. Odessa is likely to bé Taken back by Russia before thé end of this current War. At this occasion Transnistria will likely join back Russia too. If Moldova keep quiet and doesn't provoke Russia peace will go on for thé benefit of everybody. Moreover if Roumania leaves NATO Russia could ease réunification of Moldova with Rumania. Russia has fabulous cards to play with Rumania, Bulgaria and Serbia giving back them Moldova, northern Macedonia and Kosovo with Krajina ... 😊
Thanks so much, Anirudh. I hope all is well at your end. Great question. I'm not aware of any work done on this. But it is a fascinating issue. I wonder how things will change as Moldova moves closer to the EU.
Azerbaijan received a subtle wink-wink from Putin after Armenia decided to improve ties with the "West".
Let me correct your statement. Armenia (2018-2020) continues to house Russian bases and border guards, increases trade with Russia, buys 96% of military equipment from Russia. Meanwhile Russia is increasing ties with Azerbaijan, sending more weapons.
Azerbaijan (2020) holds exercises with NATO member Turkey and invites Turkish generals, special forces and Syrian mercenaries to attack Nagorno-Karabakh using Turkish weapons.
Russia doesn’t stop the war until the last moment to incite a revolution in Armenia and get their person to run the government (they fail).
Stupid Russian bots: Armenia is turning to the west and NK isn’t Armenia.
Armenia (2021-2022) continues to increase trade and defense ties with Russia, meanwhile Russia withholds $400 million in military equipment.
Azerbaijan (2021-2022) attacks Armenia proper. Armenia asks Russia for assistance because their territory is under attack. Russia makes excuses while Azerbaijan occupies 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory.
Armenia increases ties with the EU and gets a EU monitoring mission to keep Azerbaijan from further attacking Armenia. Meanwhile it continues to keep good ties with Russia and increase trade.
Stupid Russian bots: Armenia is increasing ties with the West they must be punished.
Fact is Russia backstabbed Armenia because they had more to gain from Azerbaijan. Conclusion: Russia is an unreliable partner using excuses to justify not intervening to protect a country it has betrayed.
@@strpet27 First of all, no one attacked Armenia. Secondly, Armenia itself did not recognize or defend Nagorno-Karabakh. Thirdly, Armenia decided to be friends with the West, so it learned a lesson and lost Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. Conclusion: you are a paid troll.
@@СтражникПравды You’re so fixated that your country didn’t do anything wrong that you’re ignoring all the facts. I wasn’t accusing Russia of not intervening in 2020, I was accusing it of not intervening in 2022 when Armenian territory was attacked and it requested help from Russia. And also in 2023 when its peacekeepers stood by and watched as Azerbaijan took Nagorno Karabakh. Also Russia had good relations with Azerbaijan starting way before 2018 when Pashinyan was elected. (They were Azerbaijan’s largest weapons partner).
The hypocrisy of your statement accusing Armenia of being friendly towards the west while your own country is sending weapons and signing treaties with Armenia’s enemy.
Russia can continue having good relations with Azerbaijan as long as it wants and not do anything when Azeris kill Russian soldiers that is Russia’s choice. Armenia’s choice is now to get guarantees from more reliable partners.
@@strpet27 Don't lie, there is no official request for Armenia's help. Nagorno-Karabakh is not a part of Armenia. Which confirms the fact that Armenia itself did not fight. You want to do everything with Russian hands all the time. There are millions of Armenians living in Russia, none of them went to defend Nagorno-Karabakh.
You failed to mention the Turkic minority who live in the Gaugazian Autonomous Region within Moldova.
This was specifically about Transnistria. (It is very easy to confuse viewers by trying to cover too many issues.) I have done a whole video on Gagauzia and I did in fact put a link to it in this video. th-cam.com/video/KlYoVJEoRzM/w-d-xo.htmlsi=K0eFTH2xp0x1F-a5
@@JamesKerLindsay I will watch that viddo, thank you.
Not sure why your videos are not recommended more often for me.
Transnistria constantly traveled to Ukrainian Odessa to work, relax and live.
Пришло время Польше и Румынии вернуть свои территории?
"retake" something that were never yours
How do serbia recover kosovo that broke away from its sovereign state borders
I have already discussed this at length in other comments.
Just have to wait for the historical moment and it will come sooner or later maybe sooner if the right geopolitical chips fall in place.
By force of course.
"The Eu wouldn't be interested in taking in a divided state..."
Looks at Cyprus 🤔
The EU is currently doing 10000000000X more for a non member (and probably not eligible for the next 50 years if the standards applied) than it ever did for Cyprus. The only reason Cyprus wanted an EU membership was the false sense of security against Turkey. Financially and living standards wise the island is doing much much better than many EU recent additions (after the 90's). The Cypriot Pound used to be a harder currency than the British one. A large part of the affluence comes from the fact that the island has been basically the money laundry of Russia and Middle Eastern states, antagonizing in that function the established European money laundry states. The EU allowed in Cyprus in order to control or close down their little shop while giving back only platitudes and fanfares. Basically the Cypriots by entering EU put their fingers in the electricity socket and that was proved by the private (not just public) bank account haircuts they received die to a crisis that normally would not have touch them otherwise.
I hope that makes you feel better.
And security they did get
Surprised you didn't talk about Moldova's Gagauzia who actively courting Russian support, even though they are a Turkic people. Though they seem peaceful and seem happy to be autonomous, who only want to seperate if Moldova was to join the EU or Romania. I feel for these small ethnic groups and they often get unfairly treated different by us if they align with Russia, which is often because they have no alternatives. One thing I will never get is we supported Kosovo independence but we seem to have a totally different set of rules for the Gaguazia, Transnistria, Ossetia, or Abkhazia. The problem with the international law is sovereignty of borders and self-determination are at odds. Personally I believe self-determination and freedom to choose is more important. Though I prefer peaceful ways like Scotland or Quebec style referendums.
Thanks. I covered Gagauzia in another video th-cam.com/video/KlYoVJEoRzM/w-d-xo.htmlsi=qk0ueriL2UdxjXMD And I agree on Kosovo. Although I think independence is the best and most logical outcome, I argued that it needed to be consensual and that the way it was handled has created huge problems: www.bloomsbury.com/us/kosovo-9780857714121/
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks, I'll check out the Gagauzia video!
Hey is it just me or does Lavrov face look a bit weird? Looks like he’s got ‘ something’
Thanks. I wondered if anyone would pick up on that. I noticed it as well.
What is the inhabitants of the region wants? If they want an independent state for their own or want to be part of Russian Federation and their wishes should be granted, just like Kosovo was grsnded independence while it was seen as part of Serbia.
Kosovo is not independent. The largest American military base in the Balkans is on Kosovo.
Do you think that region would be independent with an even bigger American military base ?
The time to have retaken Transnistria was during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022 when Russia was preoccupied with Ukrainian advances in the Eastern part of Ukraine. At that point, a pincer movement by Moldovan troops from the West and Ukrainian soldiers from the East would have crushed the Russian forces in Transnistria and made its reincorporation into Moldova a fait accompli.
Love and support for Ukraine ❤
Support them, better then Russia....
They are pressured ekonomically...
I have been following this issue for many years.
I understand the Moldovan position, and the general position of "not giving away territory to rogue states."
Despite that, the Transnistrian question seems to me like it could "easily" be solved by Moldova renouncing any sovereignty on the territory of Transnistria and then driving **hard** for membership in the EU, and especially in NATO.
Let's be clear here, Moldova is in NO position to take on Russia militarily. They are the poorest nation in Europe.
It really seems to me like this conflict is one specific example where stepping back and building up defenses is the best option. I mean, the Russians are already there anyway, right?
Moldova needs to retake Transnistria and be done with it. And NATO have to help Moldova in the process so Russia can't protest.
So Moldova can retake Transnistria but Serbia can't retake Kosovo because.. why exactly? Hypocrite.
@@KingslayerSrb Kosovo = Independent Country in 2024
@@FlamingBasketballClub How is the independence of Kosovo difference from the independence of transnistria? Kosovo is literally run by the UN
@@KingslayerSrbIsn't this Kosovo thing getting boring? Do you really want to forcefully retake Kosovo?
If you think about it, there are only downsides in maintaining this harsh stance towards Kosovo.
Nothings going to happen and if something were to happen, Serbia would inflict great harm to its citizens.
@@YourD3estinY It's just showing the utter hypocrisy involved when different countries are at play in one case it's ok in the other it's not.
Moldova would be foolish to do anything other than to stay out of war /world politics, at least for now anyways, and do nothing. Later if Russia collapses, then maybe allow for this type talk out of pure necessity, but all talk like this now will earn Moldova is a flatted city burning in ruins in my opinion.
You lost me at "Moldova may try to size breakaway". 🤣 That country is soo poor, i don't think they have money for pistol ammunition, not something else. Corruption is on another level... Ive been there in 2016, the amount of corruption makes Ukraine look like little baby.
Thanks. I was careful. I didn't say that Moldova may try to seize it. I said that Transnistria and Russia had suggested that it might try to do it - hence Moscow's warning that it shouldn't even try. The whole video was about why I couldn't. And why it shouldn't. :-)
The best way is to hold a referendum under un supervision
Moldova hear me! Get healthy! Get rich! Get unified!
They will side w Russia. You can mark my words
Transnistria is not apart of the Russian Federation, so why would Russia see Moldova removing Russian soldiers from its territory?
As a Romanian we recognize Moldova our sister country. Russia can’t stop the will of the people. I’m hoping transnitria won’t turn in to next West Bank ?? God forbid. We’re one nation. Putin must understand…
Go Home Russia!
#PutinWarCrimial
А мы у себя дома. Это вы Европа лезьте на наши земли. Видно опять хотите чтоб мы вам напомнили 1945 год. Вы наверное забыли. Если что мы можем напомнить вам 45 год. Только потом не пласте а нас за шо.
Russia do not need to attack Moldova UNLESS Moldova attacks Transnistria. At this point they would declare independence and ask for assistance to defend themselves. The Russians are a UN authorised peace keeper and a the trip wire. If Moldova attacked it would not end well. Moldova has started to blockade trade across the border. At some point, this will provoke a response, but we are along way from hostilities at the moment.
As for the economic blockade, Pridnestrovlje requested political help from Russia. This is a standard procedure that Russia must follow in the UN. It doesn't mean anything except in case of escalation the Russians can say you were officially warned.
I thought Moldova would join Romania. But then again, I thought Belarus would stay Russian.
End taxation theft and fraud currencies.
"“We Szekelys have a right to be proud, for in our veins flows the blood of many brave races who fought as the lion fights, for lordship. Here, in the whirlpool of European races, the Ugric tribe bore down from Iceland the fighting spirit which Thor and Wodin gave them, which their Berserkers displayed to such fell intent on the seaboards of Europe, ay, and of Asia and Africa too, till the peoples thought that the werewolves themselves had come. Here, too, when they came, they found the Huns, whose warlike fury had swept the earth like a living flame, till the dying peoples held that in their veins ran the blood of those old witches, who, expelled from Scythia had mated with the devils in the desert. Fools, fools!”
― Bram Stoker, Dracula
Why should Modova attack Transnistria? The more historically and above all geopolitically logical solution for Moldova would be to take back the rest of the country's "western territory" east of the Carpathian mountains in order to revive the historical Principality of Moldavia, relegating Romania back to what it should be: Die Walachei (with all the attendant connotations that word has in German). Likewise, Transylvania (along with Dracula?) should become an independent state, or simply be ceded to Hungary. The restored Moldavia should then - along with Finland, the Baltic States, the Ukraine, Wallachia, Bulgaria and (who knows?... if the Russians are feeling particularly warm-hearted and generous during the negotiations) Belarus - form part of a neutral cordon sanitaire between Russia and the West. Because all this "eastward expansion" and excessive commitment to the defense of Eastern Europe, does NOT serve the economic or geopolitical interests of the United States, which, after all, are the kingmaker, financier and - put plainly - the puppetmaster of these spineless, worthless European vassals which are, more and more, becoming a distraction and military/economical burden for America whose main concerns lie elsewhere.
The current Republic of Moldova is not the inheritor of the Principality of Moldova - it's just a part of it called Bessarabia, grabbed by Russia in 1812 and incorporated into their empire under the name of Bessarabian oblast (initially) and Bessarabian governorate (later). The Principality of Moldova, with it's capital at Iasi, existed after this land grab. So it cannot have any claims towards the territories of the former Principality of Moldova which united the Principality of Valachia in 1859 to form the United Principalities of Moldova and Valahia, a state vasal to the Ottoman Empire, gaining its independence from it in 1877 under the name of Kingdom of Romania.
Romance language speaking people from the former principalities of Moldova, Valahia, Transilvania are all ethnically Romanians, it's the term that defines their language and culture.
It's funny to see how USSR and Russia tries to appropriate the name of "moldavian", creating a moldavian ASSR on the left bank of the Dniester river while the Bessarabian governorate re-united with the Kingdom of Romania in 1918. Even today, the full name of transnistria is the Moldavian Transnistrian Republic. Needless to say that this appropriation has no cultural nor linguistic grounds: Moldavians are the inhabitants on the territory of the former Principality of Moldova, speaking the same language like the people of Valachia or Transylvania and having the same culture, with it's local specifics - just like anywhere in this world.
Unless russia gets to Odessa i don,t think they will do anything with this. Russia also know that overstretching yourself is dangerous and also coming close to a NATO and EU member(Romania) is even more dangerous. If russia starts something against Moldova in this context, Romania is almost forced to also act in the view of Moldavan solidarity
CGTN The Point-Hub-Heat, Warmongerers Legacy, Remote Killings. Ukraine on 🔥 Oliver Stone. Should know who wants what?
Товарищ учи историю хорошо
They should ask Ukraine for help retaking transnistria, then give the northern 1/2 to them. With plans to join the EU soon and get some money for infrastructure.
The problem is that taking in half a million disgruntled Transnistrians could severely upset the political balance in Moldova and tip it back in a more pro-Russian direction. In many ways, this would be the better scenario for Moscow. This might explain why Ukraine has avoided acting against Transnistria, even though there has been some speculation that it might step in to end the Russian presence there. It could backfire badly.
give your scotland to ireland then lets see what Westminster will do.
Moldova will end up like Ukraine if it touches Transnistria. Just like NATO cannot change the outcome of the war in Ukraine, it will not be able to to do anything to change the fate of Moldova should Moldova make the same mistake as Ukraine.
Z troll.
@@joestrat2723 cope harder.
Crazy how you barely mentioned Romania in this. Transnistria is a brake-away state of Moldova, which intern is a brake-away state of Romania.
Before the war, 90% of Moldova’s energy came through Tiraspol straight from Russia at discounted prices. Transnistria had free energy btw. Now, after the war, 80% of Moldova’s energy comes from Romania, straight to Chişinău.
As a Romanian citizen, I feel we have the duty to support our brothers in any ways they request, and that we should guarantee their borders. Another fact is that a substantial percentage of Moldova had Romanian citizenship.
President Maia Sandu is organising a national referendum about European integration, this is her last year in term i think and it’s gonna set the course for Moldova for the years to come.
Posluşaite: Vî Amerikandosî...a vam kakoe delo do naşei Moldovâ...
Da ni poşli li vî N@Hui raz i na vsegda ..tuda kvam za boliyşoi lujei...Aaaa...??? Ot..iIi.bitesi uje ot nas vseh....🙏 ✊ 💥
Serbia is watching carefully
There are huge differences between the two cases. As I mentioned, the Transnistrians are much closer to the rest of the Moldovans than the Kosovo Albanians are to the Serbs. This is really a power dispute. Kosovo is genuinely an identity conflict. What would Serbia do if it retook Kosovo? Would it really be prepared to give them a third of all parliament and government seats? Would ordinary Serbs accept an Albanian deputy prime minister or vice president? Would Serbs really want to pay to support Kosovo? I know that you will say yes they would. But I know Serbia well enough to know that underneath all the "Kosovo je Srbija" posturing, most people know that Serbia is better off without Kosovo. They are just unhappy about how it was lost - a position I fully understand. I have argued that it was contrary to international law.
@@JamesKerLindsay Let's say if Moldova took Transnistria by force and Serbia did the same with Kosovo, the vast majority of Albanians living in Kosovo would return to their homeland for at least two reasons. The first reason is that they would run away from the conflict, and the second reason is because they would not want to live in Serbia, the country that just defeated them. Serbs who were expelled from Kosovo could return to their homes and Serbs would make up the majority of the population in Kosovo and Metohija. There would be no need for a third of the parliament, the prime minister and other nonsense. There are already representatives of minorities in the parliament, so there would be nothing new. The only difference is that one case corresponds to the West and the other does not. Cynicism in its purest form.
@@JamesKerLindsayIf it is your position that Serbia is better of without Kosovo, I don’t understand why you don’t argue that Azerbaijan was better of without Nagorno-Karabakh. Also since you are of the opinion that NK wasn’t ethnically cleansed in September 2023 after months of blockade and an offensive, I wonder what you will say if Serbia started an offensive against Kosovo and Serbian soldiers indiscriminately started firing at homes and destroying Albanian graves without being punished and the Albanians of Kosovo left. Would you still argue that everything was according to international law and that this didn’t constitute ethnic cleansing?
I know no example of successful peaceful integration.
While Transnistria has a smaller size and population than Moldova, its army is larger and better equipped. For example it has tanks while Moldova has no tanks. So Moldova doesn't even have the capability to take Transnistria at moment, thus making this whole debate pointless.
I for 1 will not like Transnistra to be pact of Moldova but with Russian Troops and the country being pro Moscow I think it will be diserstrous if any other countries tried staging an insurrection or some sort of disobedience because they don't play I had friend from that part who finished serving a 6yrs sentence for political disobedience he got shipped from the penal colony back home said kid worst thing I am ever going to do ❤
Transnistria is Moldova! Period!
Yes. But how would you propose solving the issue of Transnistria then?
@@JamesKerLindsay transnistria is already under siege, the longer the war continues the untenable it will be! There should be no negotiations with Putin's stooges
In cyprus Turks inhabited North was made a separate Turkish province,,,,, Falkand island despite being away from mainland UK is still British andso Russian speaking Transnistriahas every right to have separate existence
Moldovans can come attack Transnitria, they failed to subjugate the local Russians in the first time, won’t mean the local Russians will surrender their independence in the next time.
azeris had oil, morale and turkey. what moldova have?
Europe is not the European Union(Dictatorship) @ JamesKerLindsay. In regards to sovereignty NATO has protected. borders for decades
When 27 European states are members of the EU, and many more want to join or have close relations, the EU is now essentially Europe. And why does the existence of the EU (which is anything but a "dictatorship") preclude NATO security? I'm all for having a serious discussion, but can we at least start with a serious point?
i would try it idc about russia
It would cancel their pending EU membership, most countries outside of the west would condemn it, China would be given a reason to supply Russia militarly because legally they can just say they're helping against aggression, etc etc. There's a reason not even Ukraine has touched Transnistria alongside Moldova, because it would be a diplomatic shitstorm and a massive strategic diplomatic failure.
Interesting
I wouldn't be surprised if at some point Ukraine intervenes in Moldova and ejects Russian peacekeepers to Belarus. It would be one more way the Ukraine could put pressure on Europe to deliver battlefield weapons to avoid Ukraine "escalating" the conflict. After all, there have been incursions across the Ukraine border into Russia. I'm sure Moldova could protest quite loudly this Ukrainian violation of its sovereignty, and then restart more talks that never go anywhere.
There is literally 0 reason for Ukraine to do that. They're already struggling to hold onto the territory they have and take back what they can when they can. Also, this would in no way "put pressure" on Europe. Let's be clear, most Europeans do not give the slightest fuck about Transinistria, I honestly don't even think Moldovans do and I know many of them. Most people who aren't well-versed in geopolitics or who live in the region have no idea what this place even is. I grew up in Romania and I had no idea what Transinistria was till I was in my 20s.
As was stated in the video, this isn't really similar to other conflicts like Azerbaijan vs. Armenia where the two sides hate each other and would gladly do another ethnic cleansing. There's no real enmity between Moldovans and Transinistrans. It's not like Moldova is 100% Moldovan and then Transinistria is 100% Russian. There's Russians and Romanians in both places. And many Moldovans are practically Russian themselves, at least culturally.
Neither side here is interested in dying over some utterly valueless strip of land.
@@bigbeautifulape5283I would add that in most EU countries (especially those that were in before the 90's) the ACTUAL public doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine also. Now granted that the media are working 24/7 to change that and those who get invitations for parties in Davos most certainly care. But if you go out on the streets and speak to random people you will get answers that are closer to the reality of this conflict.
How ever little Europe is doing for Ukraine it will do ever less should they invade a neutral country
Саксы остановите войну потом научитесь не совать нос в другие страны , смотрите за собой
Does this mean that it is feasable for Serbia to retake lost territory also? After all Serbia lost territory due to military action as did Moldova. Let us be careful with making bold statements. Good and peaceful relations may pay greater dividends in the long run.
I agree. And this is what I say in the video. Talk of conflict doesn’t make sense, for many reasons.
@@JamesKerLindsay I agree with your pertinent analysis. In the current context it may not be the best analogy, but "let sleeping dogs lie".
It is feasable, and it is also the only way to prevent Kosovo from being annexed by Albania, which Albanians are planing to achieve until 2028.
@@2Dylandog Unfortunately, wether something is feasable or not, seems to be in the eye of the beholder, their chosen narrative and their political aims.
I have no doubt that Russia will defend Transnistria just like they defended Armenia.
I wonder why Russia abandoned Armenia too it's fate 🤔.
When you think about it, why should Russia maintain an Armenian break away region when the actual Armenian government couldn't be bothered and had in reality already written the breakaway regions.
Armenia has set it's face to the west, NATO and the EU, for Russia the choice is simple, Azerbaijan will make a more reliable security partner
@@mythbuster6126 Yes, they defended Germany by ripping the bandaid of oil reliance on Russia off. It had to happen or else Germany compromises EU security interests.
It’s almost like Armenia was pro western and Transnistria isn’t
@@Doosteroni a deal is a deal
unless putin's involved. then it's a guaranteed backstab.
I think they are different situations. Transnistrians are Russians and speak Russian, for instance, while Armenians are a completely different culture. Furthermore, Russia and Azerbaijan enjoy very good relations which isn't the same case with Russia and Moldova. Finally, Azerbaijan has taken much more concrete steps to modernize its military while Moldova hasn't.
I'm still baffled by how 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria get supplied given that they border the Ukraine on one side and Moldova on the other, there's no obvious route in, as it must involve Russian supplies crossing one of those two countries. Was there some deal in the 1990s peace deal that allows the Russian military safe passage that both Moldova and the Ukraine still follow?
This is a brilliant point. I have always wondered about this as well. Now that the border with Ukraine is closed, one can only assume that the garrison is effectively trapped unless Russia has a standing agreement with Moldova to allow its citizens to enter or has found another way to infiltrate them. But I can't imagine that they can bring in any weapons. It would be interesting to hear from anyone who can answer this.
@@JamesKerLindsayI think what is left of the 14th Guards (about 1,500) are by now mainly Transnistrians in Russian Uniforms so the issue of transit through Chisinău airport is mute.
@@JamesKerLindsayIt’s also worth noting that the only paths between Transnistria and Russia that don’t cross Ukrainian territory must cross NATO territory.
@@cdhblackwell The rank and file are mostly locals I believe. IIRC The Russians used to rotate officers and technical specialists using commercial flights but the Moldovans shut that down.
On paper, one of the reasons the Russian troops are there is to maintain and guard massive Soviet era ammo dumps that were left in place so they can draw on that, at least until it passes its best by dates.
@@cm275they could live of it for decades that ammo dump can fund whole of Moldova. It was one if reason transtrions won at first place even after being outnumbered they had better equipment
New James Ker Lindsay? That’s what I call a GOOD Friday
And a very Happy Easter to all those celebrating this weekend! :-)
No thank you, that would be a poor decision. Transnistria has only been a plague for Moldova post-USSR. A new Kaliningrad is a no-no so there remain two scenarios: either an independent Transnistria or its dismantling along ethnic lines, aka the regions in the North which are more Romanian/Moldovan left to Moldova, the regions in the South which are more Ukrainian/Russian given to Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian territories which are majority Romanian/Moldovan. That way Moldova can unite with Romania and get in the EU, because the EU "admission" is a trick, the EU won't receive any new members for a long time, Ukraine and Moldova have been conned and I think by now they've figured it out that they're meant to be buffer states until relations with Russia cool off.
Да мы это уже видели во время СССР "по этническому признаку" сам СССР высялили ночью сотни тысяч человек и заселяли "русскими специалистами" а спустя 100 лет а давайте делить по этническому признаку, посмотрите на карту Молдовы до вхождения в колхоз СССР и что осталось при выходе из СССР, потом сама Россия изобретатель Преднистрофию и Автономного Гагаузери, и я не удивлюсь если не найдут дипломатических консенсуса могут и Оргеевскую Народную Республику -Шора изобретать
@@sergiubargan2970Daca ai putea sa te exprimi macar in acelasi alfabet, as aprecia, dupa nume esti moldovean.
@@MMerlyn91 Eu sunt romăn -moldovean
@@sergiubargan2970 Ma bucur ca te consideri roman, am scris "moldovean" tocmai ca sa nu te simti jignit in caz ca identitatea de roman nu e ceva ce iti place. Nu am inteles de ce ai scris in chirilic, noi folosim alfabetul latin, pe ambele maluri ale Prutului. Acum ca am lamurit ca suntem de aceeasi parte poti sa imi explici unde anume consideri ca gresesc.
@@MMerlyn91 conceptul de clasificării teritoriului național a unui stat Independent după proveniența etnică este o aberație s-au varianta prototip-modernizată a (Federalizării r. Moldova) , stim noi bine cine insistat cu asemenea proiecte de soluționare (Cozak) , defrișarea teritoriului administrativ al Republicii Sovietice Socialiste Moldovenești s-a produs cam după același concept , astfel r. Moldova după URSS a rămas fără Bucovina și fără esirea la Marea Neagră, fără Transnistria și fără Autonomia Găgăuză ...... Un om normal cu scaun la cap nu poate percepe dezmembrarea r Moldova înt-un astfel de hal, mă tem că sunteți dintre acei care scriu comentarii pentru trei copeici la vreo fermă de trolli de prin aceeași Transnistrie
With all the geopolitical considerations you have which are extremely valid, I can't help but to ponder about your extreme worry about drawing new borders, it feels unnatural and undemocratic! If people feel different enough that they wish to be independent and not subjugated to a majority then let them be the founders of their new country with its geographical disadvantages and quirks: At least the inhabitants will only have themselves to blame for their difficulties.
The population of Transnistria is mostly pro-Russian. This applies not only to the Slavs (Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, and Gagauzes=semi-Turkified Bulgars), who constitute 62% of the total, but to many of the Romanians, including the so called "ethnic Moldovans," too. Also, do not forget that many Ukrainian nationalists believe that Transnistria should belong to Ukraine.
Very good analysis. Glad that you mentioned a tricky electoral balance as a major factor of holding the conflict frozen. Just want to add a piece why previous pro-Russian government wasn’t so keen to unify as well, even winning in terms of additional electorate for them - it’s a grey economic area where a lot of Moldovan money laundering is happening. For many this status-quo is too precious to lose.
Moldova was among the first victims of Russia's strategy of provoking a conflict in another country, then freeze it (while offering to be the "peacekeeper."). A sick joke, indeed.
sick joke is ukraine mostly and its role of "anti-Russia".
@@andrebyche31 Wut?
It is time for the reunification of Romania.
I was of the opinion that Ukraine and Moldova should team up on Transnistria and split the weapons, but after watching this video I am now of the opinion that Moldova will be able to peacefully reintegrate the area one day. Thank you for informing my opinion.
That wouldn't end well!
Moldova is in no position for a fight. There armed forces are less than 15,000 men. An Russian spends Alot of money buying influence to sow dissention. Moldova reclaiming the land could lead to Russia trying to buy a coup. Even if it doesn't work it's still Alot of trouble to clean up.
Thank you so much. I agree. I think a lot is also going to depend on what happens in Ukraine. But in the meantime it would make sense to leave Transnistria as it is.
Russia will eventually take odessa and keep Transnistria like it keeps Ossetia.
Moldova should let go of Transistria imo. The teritorry is a burdain and what it has to offer is far less than it takes aways from Moldova's functionality as a state. If they mak enew borders behind the Dnister then they can explore far easier other paths like European intergration and even Romanian reunification.
Could be a modern day Singapore in terms of forced independence if Moldova sees a peaceful move into the EU and not bothering with the costs of taking it back
Singapore strategic control of the strait of Malacca and deep ports US$3.5 trillion of global trade navigates through its waters mostly too and from --- wait for it! China I also wish Moldova had a Geographic Jewel like this
We do have potential but without a coastline it's not possible
Что вы тут пургу гоните Уонистов в Молдове @десять процентов .остальные Молдоване гагаузы, ураинцы, руссие. И никто не хочет присоединятся к Ромонии не вриите
40% of the population of Moldova wants the reunification with Romania and their percentage is higher every year