They just realized that jeezz the deficits has skyrocketed (of course politicians still says Trump's fault) but for the first time ar the same time employment is so low including the llabor shortages
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
Some of us out here have to pause when you refer to bond "returns." Too often, we connect bonds with yield, not price, while "total return" combines yield earnings and price action.
One year ago after listening to the "experts" on this channel tell people that something was going to break soon because the long end of the bond market rising. Most of them said people should buy long-term treasuries. Some of the experts said if they could they would put everything into the long end, like TLT. I listened and put a good portion of my money in TLT . Yesterday I sold the TLT position with almost $200K loss. Although I still believe investing in the long end of the bond market will pay off someday, I'm just not willing to ride this down any longer.
As Alf said, stay in risk free t-bills and collect 5.5% TLT trade might never play, as we are heading in the footsteps of Argentina (inflationary depression). Most people incorrectly believe that depression automatically means deflation, because this is what happened during the last depression. However, during the last depression, the US was on gold standard. Nowadays m, we’re on a fiat “standard.” It’s a huge difference.
I just DCA into a position, where I aim to have my desired allocation completed in 3 years out. If the position is down I increase the allocation rate with another 3 year target, with the anticipation of mean reversion. Expecting to be broke.🎉🦧
Agree. Lots of the macro guys recommending the 30 year when was it 2%. Credit Luke Gromen for convincing me the risk isn’t worth it since ultimately they’re trash.
It is term premium’s rise that’s been behind the recent bear steepening. Inflation expectations remain historically elevated, and point to term premia’s rise continuing... TLT trade is for fools that will end up the roadkill.
Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.
Yes, I have been in touch with a CFP ever since the outbreak. Today, investing in hot stocks is quite easy; the difficult part is deciding when to buy and sell. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my adviser chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
@@Dantursi1 my 401k growth has been stagnant since the 2019. I wouldn't mind consulting the advisor who guides you, I really want to grow my retirement fund since I could retire in 3 years.
The stock market is without a doubt the awkward teenager with the most extreme mood swings! I started out with a commentator named “Vivian Carol Gioia” Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control over my position, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI.
I enjoy Alf's work and macro perspective and have followed him for some time. I do wish his paywall was a little lower for us in the lumpen investoriat.
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
I' m totally with Alfonso, and not because he's Italian like me. Great analysis and great clarity. S&P started going down exactly at the double/triple low of curve inversion on 25-27 july and is going to go to 3.600 (at least) by the end of this November, in a free-fall and in tandem with the curve de-inversion
This is the best objective showing of data that gives accuracy to probabilities. Looking forward by your guests today, Alf - So this also means those waiting for rates to come down to benefit and profit from long rates dropping is not going to happen. The rates will stay higher for longer and they will lose their credibility and their money and other peoples money. You better warn them.
Knowing how higher interest rates affect bonds and stocks is super important, whether you're into real estate like I am or just trying to grow your money. Alf is doing a great job breaking down these topics, and I'm excited to learn more from him and this channel!
Glad to hear someone brilliant highlighting one of my concerns. There has been MASSIVE capital loss in the bond market, and bonds are often held with leverage and derivatives. This seems waaayyy worse than 2008
Alf tries to hide his mistakes. David Rosenburg and Lacy Hunt are very consistent. They don't try to time the markets. Their call is that long duration will pay off over time.
Thanks for putting this out there. Just by doing a Google search there is not much information for what happens when the yield curve uninverts by the long-term yields going higher. I know as I was searching for it a couple of days ago.
Thank you for having this great interview! I feel that Alf Peccatiello has provided a lot of clarity to what I see unfolding in the economy. It makes a lot of sense and provides a rationale perspective to why it is taking longer to see the bear market unravel.
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
Nope. I don't follow furus. I read, observe alot and gained significant knowledge from observing the markets. I make and lose based on my observations and my strategy. Cheers
Could be right..and the Fed could act surprised when everyone acts like they didn’t know what the Fed meant..kinda like how they said with transitory, “we don’t think transitory means short lasting we think it’s means not causing much damage.” They could just change the definition of words after the fact
Thanks for the clear and simple explanations. Also. I can hear and understand. The speaking is slow, and I can hear every word. Very professional. Content also is of interest and importance. Thx.
Great video and everything he said makes total sense. However, I really did not hear anything on how inflation plays into this. I really don't think the fed is interested in lowering inflation to 2%. I think they want inflation higher for longer to melt away the Fed debt. I wonder what that does to the thesis.
The stock market hasn’t reacted as it should have (lower) largely due to the massive increase in passive investing where individual stocks are not being followed by investors. When investors eventually see that portfolio returns are dismal, they will sell out and invest in short term treasuries. Then the market will drop significantly.
What I enjoy about your channel is how you let your guests speak. For some reason on this occasion you chose to continually interrupt Alf which was a shame. Otherwise keep up the great work 👍
The interest service doesn’t disappear, it gets reallocated to other savings, investment, and consumption purposes. Credit constraint implies a massive correction to previous malinvestment. Credit bubbles are a disaster over time.
Amazing to listen to an hour of 2 "experts" talk about market issues, "magic gas taxes" as Alf calls it and not one mention of inflation in any of these equations.
Ha I definitely need his bond education course! To me I just see 20 year bond pays me 5% and I can't understand why I wouldn't want to buy and hold a good portion of my portfolio in that!
A 20 year bond at 5% has a duration of 12.865. So, for every 1 point in interest rate rise, or fall, the value of that bond approximately changes by 12.865% accordingly. Not a problem if you hold for the entire 20 years. But lets pretend a guy like Lance Roberts is completely wrong, and the long end increases by 2 points over the next year. Your 20 year bond is now down 25.73%. If you sell, you've just secured a 25% loss in the value of that bond. But, on the other hand....If rates drop by 2 points, you've INCREASED your bond value by the same percentage.
@MattMatusiak I am heavily in short term t bills, but isn't a likely scenario that economy "breaks", Powell pivots fast and those short term high rates disappear?
At 2-3% longterm interest rates were zero to negative in real terms with no risk premium. Who doesn’t want to borrow on those terms? There was effectively no credit constraint on malinvestment. Insane policy.
Average duration of junk bonds is 6 years, so why is the 30 year US treasury bond the key indicator? Surely it is the "10 year" treasury note, with a maturity of 6.5 years which is most relevant to rates on high yield corporate bond markets.
Some industry sectors and well-positioned companies (low debt leverage and no refinancing needs = high cash positions) will be able to thrive in this tighter credit higher CPI environment by passing their costs along. All others will be squeezed. Value, AI tech, healthcare, defense, energy, currency hedges?
Alf: Are there sources of information that show the actual amount of debt that needs to be refinanced by corporate America on a month to month/ quarter to quarter year to year basis etc.? That would seem to be an important set of information to verify and or prove your thesis of lowering profits coming and capital having to be allocated to higher interest payments. How much debt needs to be refinanced in actuality in the coming time frames. as a percentage of overall debt.
I agree mostly with Alf, especially on pension funds and insurance companies having the _capacity_ to absorb Treasury bond issuance. But I have the question regarding their flows, of whether they have the present need to absorb that issuance. Half of the US consumer wealth is invested by Baby Boomers, who only represent 20% of the population. The last Baby Boomer hits 65 in about 7 years, so many if not most of them are in the mode of drawing down savings from pension funds and retirement accounts. And with insurance companies, we just had two serious hurricanes and the Maui fires, so are they not paying out more claims than they are receiving in premiums? IMO these bigger institutions have a vested interest of staying on the sidelines and let the Treasury auctions flail, only improving the yields on long term bonds until they are ready to cherry pick off the run Treasuries.
I love this channel, but this video was exhausting to watch. surprised adam didn't press alf further into what he said the last time he was on the channel a few months before, specifically on jumping into long bonds. also, as others have commented, Adam - please try to be more mindful of cutting off your guests when they are in the middle of talking through a topic. I have lost count of the number of times I have heard you say "sorry to interrupt but....". your guests often lose their train of thought.
AMEN. I was getting so frustrated with the constant interruption right at the moment Alf was about to get to the meat of his point. I love this channel, but this to me, was one of Adam's worst interruption performances.
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
in a recession fed will print money to qe. they have to get rates lower to get a recovery going in a recession caused by higher rates. plus that will help supply issues from fiscal. rates will come down or your looking at an apocalyptic scenario
@@onedaily2471 We will not avoid a recession. I assume you disagree with alph as well on that issue? We are not in such a new world in just a few short years that inflation will settle out much higher either. A recession reset and productivity gains & I think we will see a very normal environment for inflation. Long term yields are likely going to creep up but not immediately, probobly not until we are clear of the recession dynamics.
@@blank-964 We will not avoid a recession, but a recession/depression doesn’t automatically mean deflation. E.g. We had multiple inflationary recessions in 1970s, aka stagflation. Argentina has been having an inflammatory depression for decades.
@@onedaily2471 very different situations. we’ve already seen a very healthy downward response in inflation as normalization and rates take hold. We’ll be close to 2% long run eventually. Rates may run higher for that given rate of inflation though, just due to supply but I bet they are both as high as they are today.
@@blank-964 Did you listen to what Alf said? BEAR STEEPENER indicates that bond investors are concerned about inflation. To take advantage of the bear steepener you’re going long (buying) short-term bonds and shorting (selling) long-term bonds. If you’re a shorter term investor, you can short the stock market because the Fed will not cut interest rates as the stock market prices in. The term -BEAR steepener - got its name because it tends to be bearish for equity markets since rising long-term rates indicate inflation and future interest rate hikes by the Fed. Buying TLT in this environment is plain stupid, no matter what the “experts” say.
Public corps will dampen higher interest rates on their debt by diluting shareholders and issuing more shares to raise cash. This is how corporations print money.
Alf gave some good advice here. If you believe in the macro rationale of the upcoming recessions TBills are great. If you have more risk appetite though, TBonds from here and with a 6mo-12mo horizon are probably even better (see Lance Roberts).
He'd say something like "This is exactly what we expected. Our timeline is 18-36 months". Meanwhile, he's already down 3.7% on his 20 year bond swap about 3 weeks ago.
With all of the current events, what is the best approach to profit from the present market? I'm still debating diversifying my $400k stock portfolio to obtain some profits while minimizing risk.
The economy is terribly weak. That’s the problem. The government is rapidly increasing the pace of deficit spending to keep things propped up. That’s why bond yields are spiking. Inflation makes the toatal gdp look better, but we are buying less units. Again propped up by government spending.
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
Reasons not to buy bonds: You thought it's a good idea, and you don't do this professionally. (inverse to win. Just like he thought Tesla was overvalued the whole run up etc. The easiest way to make money is find people who follow it but don't truly understand, and they make mistakes that are easy inverses). They're removing money from the system, while issuing new bonds, which I mean... More bonds, less money, you can't buy bonds with imaginary money, so price down, yield up so they sell. It's controlled by the central bank and they can f you any time. We are in a inflationary environment, and stocks do better in inflationary environments. Tlt or long duration bonds aren't remotely safe. They're extremely volatile. Assuming bond yields couldn't go higher, when we have an aging demographic selling bonds to fund retirement while the government issues bonds to fund insane spending, I mean.. Why did you think this was a good trade.... Nope. There are far more efficient ways to trade bonds anyway. Just use your brain.
Exactly. Dont bet on uncertainty hasn't finalized. ERC injection will end in Sept and rest of covid stimulus. That's what people like Larry Fink seems to have forgotten that property isn't guaranteed to stay resilient as long as 30 years debts per his nonsense in Bloomberg yesterday
Great Channel : IMO the content is too bullish , perhaps research content that includes fear and doubt to help motivate bond sellers to complete their good work?
LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE for Wealthion's online conference on Oct 21 at wealthion.com/conference?YT
Great time to bring Alf on, he has a solid perspective on the current bear steepening in bonds and its implications.
Alf is absolutely right. I backed up the truck for 5.5% on the short end. Stacked and laddered. Sleeping just fine.
It is term premium’s rise that’s been behind the recent bear steepening.
Print & Borrow until we collapse. That's the plan. That's the only plan. There will never be another plan.
Inflate or Die!
Print & Barrow Inc is the name of my finance advisor
Not in the long run, but they will find a way to bankrupt everybody who bets knowing that it is the plan along the way.
Ends in mad max. Which is why I’m not bringing kids into this madness world
They just realized that jeezz the deficits has skyrocketed (of course politicians still says Trump's fault) but for the first time ar the same time employment is so low including the llabor shortages
Wasn’t Alf talking about buying long bonds in the spring? How did that work out😐
That is why you subscribe to his service. He changed his tune when he realized what the treasury was doing along with the Fed😃
Did we had the bear steepener in the spring?
"When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?"
--John Maynard Keynes
@@Vitellius-jf9gzdo you think the bear steepener suggests that the long term rates would stay high even if the fed cuts short term rates?
He’s been suggesting to buy ling term bonds for about 2 years now.
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
In all seriousness, I literally thought about Alf yesterday wondering when the next interview would be
I’ve been a fan of Alf going back to his 80s sitcom
Mr. Peccatiello, thank you for sharing your wisdom and hard work. Love how you tie the macro picture together
Some of us out here have to pause when you refer to bond "returns." Too often, we connect bonds with yield, not price, while "total return" combines yield earnings and price action.
One year ago after listening to the "experts" on this channel tell people that something was going to break soon because the long end of the bond market rising. Most of them said people should buy long-term treasuries. Some of the experts said if they could they would put everything into the long end, like TLT. I listened and put a good portion of my money in TLT . Yesterday I sold the TLT position with almost $200K loss. Although I still believe investing in the long end of the bond market will pay off someday, I'm just not willing to ride this down any longer.
As Alf said, stay in risk free t-bills and collect 5.5%
TLT trade might never play, as we are heading in the footsteps of Argentina (inflationary depression).
Most people incorrectly believe that depression automatically means deflation, because this is what happened during the last depression. However, during the last depression, the US was on gold standard. Nowadays m, we’re on a fiat “standard.” It’s a huge difference.
I just DCA into a position, where I aim to have my desired allocation completed in 3 years out. If the position is down I increase the allocation rate with another 3 year target, with the anticipation of mean reversion.
Expecting to be broke.🎉🦧
Agree. Lots of the macro guys recommending the 30 year when was it 2%. Credit Luke Gromen for convincing me the risk isn’t worth it since ultimately they’re trash.
Pulled out too soon. Typical retail move to buy high and sell low. Don't feel bad you are the 99%! Human nature is so predictable.
It is term premium’s rise that’s been behind the recent bear steepening. Inflation expectations remain historically elevated, and point to term premia’s rise continuing...
TLT trade is for fools that will end up the roadkill.
love the show, but please full screen those charts for we folks watching on phones / small screens
Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.
Yes, I have been in touch with a CFP ever since the outbreak. Today, investing in hot stocks is quite easy; the difficult part is deciding when to buy and sell. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my adviser chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
@@Dantursi1 my 401k growth has been stagnant since the 2019. I wouldn't mind consulting the advisor who guides you, I really want to grow my retirement fund since I could retire in 3 years.
The stock market is without a doubt the awkward teenager with the most extreme mood swings! I started out with a commentator named “Vivian Carol Gioia” Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control over my position, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I verified her and booked a call session with her. She seems Proficient.
I enjoy Alf's work and macro perspective and have followed him for some time. I do wish his paywall was a little lower for us in the lumpen investoriat.
So true. His site was one of the few I visited to join but $5k is a bit to steep for me. Hopefully he continues to provide free content.
@@LadyF71I didn't see any $5K prices. The course is $500 ($400 after 20% off). The subscription has two levels: $400 and $1250.
It's only $33 a month, a little over a dollar a day vs. average price of Starbucks coffee or tea $5
@@Vitellius-jf9gz I'll have to go back over there and look around 😌
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
I' m totally with Alfonso, and not because he's Italian like me. Great analysis and great clarity. S&P started going down exactly at the double/triple low of curve inversion on 25-27 july and is going to go to 3.600 (at least) by the end of this November, in a free-fall and in tandem with the curve de-inversion
This is the best objective showing of data that gives accuracy to probabilities. Looking forward by your guests today, Alf -
So this also means those waiting for rates to come down to benefit and profit from long rates dropping is not going to happen. The rates will stay higher for longer and they will lose their credibility and their money and other peoples money. You better warn them.
Knowing how higher interest rates affect bonds and stocks is super important, whether you're into real estate like I am or just trying to grow your money. Alf is doing a great job breaking down these topics, and I'm excited to learn more from him and this channel!
Glad to hear someone brilliant highlighting one of my concerns. There has been MASSIVE capital loss in the bond market, and bonds are often held with leverage and derivatives. This seems waaayyy worse than 2008
It is
Way worse than 2008. We were warned then but few paid attention (see interview between Bill Moyers and Kevin Phillips)
I really like Alf, but he really missed the TLT call being one of his favorite trades of the year.
Yep. Terrible. Seems like a nice guy though.
Yup and didn’t acknowledge it here
Alf tries to hide his mistakes. David Rosenburg and Lacy Hunt are very consistent. They don't try to time the markets. Their call is that long duration will pay off over time.
Thanks for putting this out there. Just by doing a Google search there is not much information for what happens when the yield curve uninverts by the long-term yields going higher. I know as I was searching for it a couple of days ago.
Because it’s never happened. Jeff Snider did a video on this.
Cash is the King regardless
What a brilliant conversation. Bravo both.
This video is top notch, Adam and Alf. Way to go!
Thank you for having this great interview! I feel that Alf Peccatiello has provided a lot of clarity to what I see unfolding in the economy. It makes a lot of sense and provides a rationale perspective to why it is taking longer to see the bear market unravel.
Alf is the first Wealthion guest that I agree with 100%
😮😂
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
I guess you have lost a lot of money on bonds then?
Nope. I don't follow furus. I read, observe alot and gained significant knowledge from observing the markets. I make and lose based on my observations and my strategy. Cheers
What if “higher for longer” is somewhat coded language for higher rates on longer-term bonds?
Could be right..and the Fed could act surprised when everyone acts like they didn’t know what the Fed meant..kinda like how they said with transitory, “we don’t think transitory means short lasting we think it’s means not causing much damage.” They could just change the definition of words after the fact
I could listen to this guy all day. Perfect voice for explaining finance
Alf is brillant! Excellent interview. Please bring him back again soon. Thank you both!
Thank you for having Afl on, he's one of the best guests you've ever had.
He tuned me into so much useful information!!
Thank you guys
Please bring back Alf for a followup!
So with the 401k funds, there is usually a medium term income fund with bonds. Any reason not to go that route over the next 12mo?
Thanks for the clear and simple explanations. Also. I can hear and understand. The speaking is slow, and I can hear every word. Very professional. Content also is of interest and importance. Thx.
this interview was even better than David Lin's, thank you Adam
👍Alf is well-informed and likeable.👍 However, we need him to talk about the Euro/EU and Italy -- not about yet more Fed-chatter.
💪Always tune in for Alf!
Great video and everything he said makes total sense. However, I really did not hear anything on how inflation plays into this. I really don't think the fed is interested in lowering inflation to 2%. I think they want inflation higher for longer to melt away the Fed debt. I wonder what that does to the thesis.
The stock market hasn’t reacted as it should have (lower) largely due to the massive increase in passive investing where individual stocks are not being followed by investors. When investors eventually see that portfolio returns are dismal, they will sell out and invest in short term treasuries. Then the market will drop significantly.
Way to go thank you for another great video Adam and Alf!
Much gratitude, for sure. Thank you both.
What I enjoy about your channel is how you let your guests speak. For some reason on this occasion you chose to continually interrupt Alf which was a shame. Otherwise keep up the great work 👍
Love the Alf!!! Great guest!
The interest service doesn’t disappear, it gets reallocated to other savings, investment, and consumption purposes. Credit constraint implies a massive correction to previous malinvestment. Credit bubbles are a disaster over time.
Amazing to listen to an hour of 2 "experts" talk about market issues, "magic gas taxes" as Alf calls it and not one mention of inflation in any of these equations.
Alf is such a great mind!
Ha I definitely need his bond education course! To me I just see 20 year bond pays me 5% and I can't understand why I wouldn't want to buy and hold a good portion of my portfolio in that!
Why, when you can get 5% on a 1-year T-Bill?
The 401k funds have a mid term bond fund. I’ve been playing that since this summer began and just keep adding to it with each paycheck
A 20 year bond at 5% has a duration of 12.865. So, for every 1 point in interest rate rise, or fall, the value of that bond approximately changes by 12.865% accordingly. Not a problem if you hold for the entire 20 years. But lets pretend a guy like Lance Roberts is completely wrong, and the long end increases by 2 points over the next year. Your 20 year bond is now down 25.73%. If you sell, you've just secured a 25% loss in the value of that bond. But, on the other hand....If rates drop by 2 points, you've INCREASED your bond value by the same percentage.
Inflation is the reason you don't want to be locked in for a long time. A short term trade may work out?
@MattMatusiak I am heavily in short term t bills, but isn't a likely scenario that economy "breaks", Powell pivots fast and those short term high rates disappear?
I also follow Alf elsewhere. He is excellent.
At 2-3% longterm interest rates were zero to negative in real terms with no risk premium. Who doesn’t want to borrow on those terms? There was effectively no credit constraint on malinvestment. Insane policy.
More education! Priceless!
📚📚📚
Knowledge and wisdom is Wealth!!!
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank
Ask Frank to Watch David Lin
@@MattMatusiak I have been following David Lin for 2 years he is Great 😁
English my 1st and only language.....Alf just makes me sound uncouth with how precise he is. If is his teaching is as precise how can you not learn.
I like TBT (2x short long-term Treasuries).
Excellent. Thanks guys.
Will be anxious go see what NH's analysis to all this...maybe next week? There own video was on another topic this week....
The problem is that USD might collapse in value, regardless of when/if the Fed pivots...
Correct, if the US try’s to print its way out of its debt problem then the dollar will be devalued and things will cost more (inflation)
given the current political situation and the leadership here, that is the only likely@@glowwurm9365
Average duration of junk bonds is 6 years, so why is the 30 year US treasury bond the key indicator? Surely it is the "10 year" treasury note, with a maturity of 6.5 years which is most relevant to rates on high yield corporate bond markets.
thank you very much, I learnt A lot today.
Some industry sectors and well-positioned companies (low debt leverage and no refinancing needs = high cash positions) will be able to thrive in this tighter credit higher CPI environment by passing their costs along. All others will be squeezed. Value, AI tech, healthcare, defense, energy, currency hedges?
Alf: Are there sources of information that show the actual amount of debt that needs to be refinanced by corporate America on a month to month/ quarter to quarter year to year basis etc.? That would seem to be an important set of information to verify and or prove your thesis of lowering profits coming and capital having to be allocated to higher interest payments. How much debt needs to be refinanced in actuality in the coming time frames. as a percentage of overall debt.
Thanks very much Alf and Adam.
Wow, thank you for the wealth of knowledge. This was a great discussion. Keep up the great work👍🤑👍
Well, i wasn’t 51! Tuition ain’t cheap, time will tell if this course helps my bottom line😂
Great guest.
very good, clear analysis
Quality content as usual, thank you both
I agree mostly with Alf, especially on pension funds and insurance companies having the _capacity_ to absorb Treasury bond issuance. But I have the question regarding their flows, of whether they have the present need to absorb that issuance. Half of the US consumer wealth is invested by Baby Boomers, who only represent 20% of the population. The last Baby Boomer hits 65 in about 7 years, so many if not most of them are in the mode of drawing down savings from pension funds and retirement accounts. And with insurance companies, we just had two serious hurricanes and the Maui fires, so are they not paying out more claims than they are receiving in premiums?
IMO these bigger institutions have a vested interest of staying on the sidelines and let the Treasury auctions flail, only improving the yields on long term bonds until they are ready to cherry pick off the run Treasuries.
nobody discussed bond’s until after the fact. 😢
is a realtion between interests, USD, OIL and inflation
I love this channel, but this video was exhausting to watch. surprised adam didn't press alf further into what he said the last time he was on the channel a few months before, specifically on jumping into long bonds. also, as others have commented, Adam - please try to be more mindful of cutting off your guests when they are in the middle of talking through a topic. I have lost count of the number of times I have heard you say "sorry to interrupt but....". your guests often lose their train of thought.
TDLR
No New Harbor commercial
AMEN. I was getting so frustrated with the constant interruption right at the moment Alf was about to get to the meat of his point. I love this channel, but this to me, was one of Adam's worst interruption performances.
Great video. Important information
FANTASTIC EXPLANATION - SOME PEOPLE RUN MONEY - OTHERS RUN THIER MOUTH. ALF USED TO RUN A SUBSTANTIAL BOND FUND.
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
@@ayodhyasingh6725 I’m sorry to hear that you are a Pleb.
phenomenal content
Great interview
in a recession fed will print money to qe. they have to get rates lower to get a recovery going in a recession caused by higher rates. plus that will help supply issues from fiscal. rates will come down or your looking at an apocalyptic scenario
Not if inflation re-accelerates - yields spike up - secondary to the Fed printing and government deficit spending…
@@onedaily2471 We will not avoid a recession. I assume you disagree with alph as well on that issue? We are not in such a new world in just a few short years that inflation will settle out much higher either. A recession reset and productivity gains & I think we will see a very normal environment for inflation. Long term yields are likely going to creep up but not immediately, probobly not until we are clear of the recession dynamics.
@@blank-964 We will not avoid a recession, but a recession/depression doesn’t automatically mean deflation.
E.g. We had multiple inflationary recessions in 1970s, aka stagflation. Argentina has been having an inflammatory depression for decades.
@@onedaily2471 very different situations. we’ve already seen a very healthy downward response in inflation as normalization and rates take hold. We’ll be close to 2% long run eventually. Rates may run higher for that given rate of inflation though, just due to supply but I bet they are both as high as they are today.
@@blank-964 Did you listen to what Alf said?
BEAR STEEPENER indicates that bond investors are concerned about inflation. To take advantage of the bear steepener you’re going long (buying) short-term bonds and shorting (selling) long-term bonds. If you’re a shorter term investor, you can short the stock market because the Fed will not cut interest rates as the stock market prices in.
The term -BEAR steepener - got its name because it tends to be bearish for equity markets since rising long-term rates indicate inflation and future interest rate hikes by the Fed.
Buying TLT in this environment is plain stupid, no matter what the “experts” say.
The Antonio Banderas of the bond markets. They call him Bond Zorro.
So why did he not recommend a bear fund to capture a S&P downside of 20%??
Follow Alf.
I think Alf and Luke Gorman have the best vision of the future.
Crystal ball..............thanks
solid broski 💯💯
If the credit market freezes and defaults increase, deflationary forces will allow Fed easing.
Good stuff thx
Public corps will dampen higher interest rates on their debt by diluting shareholders and issuing more shares to raise cash. This is how corporations print money.
Alf gave some good advice here. If you believe in the macro rationale of the upcoming recessions TBills are great. If you have more risk appetite though, TBonds from here and with a 6mo-12mo horizon are probably even better (see Lance Roberts).
Higher for longer and market will tolerate it like a good boy
Alf is such a prime guest
I would be really interested in what Lance's view on this is.
The audience wants Adam to do less work by letting the guest speek more.
He'd say something like "This is exactly what we expected. Our timeline is 18-36 months". Meanwhile, he's already down 3.7% on his 20 year bond swap about 3 weeks ago.
@@KevinWidener-k7h Is Alf or Lence down down 3.7% on his 20 year bond swap about 3 weeks ago.
We were promised a recession bu Q2..when ?
The idea that we are at 5.33% and the market can't handle it should indicate to everyone that this system is dead.
I'm in Alf!!! see ya soon.
I don’t know what language he was speaking. But it sounds very similar to English !
Getting Einsteinian with the time-space problem. See it's just easy math.
Love the channel but a bit too much interrupting on this one - let him talk
With all of the current events, what is the best approach to profit from the present market? I'm still debating diversifying my $400k stock portfolio to obtain some profits while minimizing risk.
This recommendation is timely! I conducted an online search with her name and set up an appointment with her on her website. Thanks
The economy is terribly weak. That’s the problem. The government is rapidly increasing the pace of deficit spending to keep things propped up. That’s why bond yields are spiking. Inflation makes the toatal gdp look better, but we are buying less units. Again propped up by government spending.
This guy called going into TLT in March. Great loss that would've been. Look past his confidence trickster bullshit.
No he’s been suggesting buying TLT since Fall of 2021. Can’t agree with you any more. He is the biggest bullshitter.
Yeah listen to him and lose a fortune . Like Lance.
Almost 2 years Alf saying to buy long term bonds. Alf just guessing and elaborates a nice narrative. Alf making money off of plebs via selling subscription.
Reasons not to buy bonds:
You thought it's a good idea, and you don't do this professionally. (inverse to win. Just like he thought Tesla was overvalued the whole run up etc. The easiest way to make money is find people who follow it but don't truly understand, and they make mistakes that are easy inverses).
They're removing money from the system, while issuing new bonds, which I mean... More bonds, less money, you can't buy bonds with imaginary money, so price down, yield up so they sell.
It's controlled by the central bank and they can f you any time.
We are in a inflationary environment, and stocks do better in inflationary environments.
Tlt or long duration bonds aren't remotely safe. They're extremely volatile.
Assuming bond yields couldn't go higher, when we have an aging demographic selling bonds to fund retirement while the government issues bonds to fund insane spending, I mean.. Why did you think this was a good trade.... Nope. There are far more efficient ways to trade bonds anyway. Just use your brain.
Exactly. Dont bet on uncertainty hasn't finalized. ERC injection will end in Sept and rest of covid stimulus. That's what people like Larry Fink seems to have forgotten that property isn't guaranteed to stay resilient as long as 30 years debts per his nonsense in Bloomberg yesterday
This administration has putting so many families into difficult situations, I pray for our country, we need compassion for the American people,
Great Channel : IMO the content is too bullish , perhaps research content that includes fear and doubt to help motivate bond sellers to complete their good work?
Adam…will you please let him speak!
Ruttrow ...
lol the hate on Elon
Alf sounds good but mid class person like myself too much for course. God bless the work though. Inflation sucks….