There are good reasons why lithium chemical companies like Albermarle and Posco are not investing in lithium from clays and sticking to processing spodumene which is well understood.
Americans like to get hung up on government ownership of assets as though it's a dangerous and corrupt thing. Meanwhile in the rest of the world industry usually relishes such partnerships and the underwriting benefits it brings to sector confidence and capital market participation.
In the USA, other than the military, government usually does things relatively badly - look at Amtrak the post office, high speed rail in California. The IRA and in particular the Loan Programs office led by Jigar Shah looks to be a good example of private/public partnership that hopefully will go well. No doubt there'll be some winners and losers, but in our divisive political climate, the free market/anti-industrial policy capitalist mentality on the right will no doubt be looking for new "solyndras" to exploit.
So many riding on the LAC/Lithium hype that was '21/'22 - Hopeful this GM deal can be secured and LAC can be running by 2028 as per their timeline. Thoughts on LAAC?
EV companies need to figure out the Cold Factor with the batteries…. Plus North America needs to be doing the full ecosystem from mining to making batteries to recycling ♻️ batteries here in the USA. And put this on the fast track!
Well a very good conversation but unfortunately no answers. Albemarle have not moved on building new their lithium hydroxide refining capacity and now rely on Chinese refineries. Have they lost the capacity to refine spodumene? PLL still scratching around needing a rezoning of residential lands to build a refinery. Please give me a break. PLL and Keith are such a disappointment and hot air. Thank goodness for Tesla and let’s see how difficult it is to refine lithium hydroxide. My own view is that the oil and gas industry are just so big, so strong so good at lobbying that things will just drag on and on in North America. I think the Koreans and the Japanese will win the race while people argue about the need for more free government money. However have we really overestimated the size and scale of spodumene demand to generate the Lithium. Clearly the demand for graphite is no where near as big as marketing led us to believe and currently it’s all synthetic produced graphite. Europe is full of hybrids and Japanese and Korean cars and Chinese manufacturers dominating new vehicles. The US Market is off on your own and frankly do not want change. Hence protectionism in the land of free enterprise. Keep up the great work and I’ll pour myself another nightcap before going back to sleep. Does this man know that China installed more solar last year than the rest of the world? Motor vehicles is just the start. Cheers.
@@RockStockChannel eventually and especially in the USA states that have the most having EV cars will be the first states to really produce battery recycling. Eventually, in the curve of batteries, it would only be urban mining probably around 2040 2050 will be the start of that.
I apologize for being perhaps too curt. I was disappointed that there wasn't a more numbers-based discussion about vehicle sales, market-share etc., on which we could build an understanding of what's actually happening in the EV market. Your interviewee admitted that he doesn't cover Tesla, and so that might explain why it was a more qualitative rather than a quantitative discussion.
They have an offtake agreement with a $500/ton floor and $900/ton ceiling on an SC6 basis. So if they aren't making money at those prices they have no one to blame but themselves.
NAL's small volumes I don't think are influencing market pricing. Pilbara and SQM pedal to the metal ramp ups have much greater impact on price. Closing mines and re-starting them is more costly than keeping them running, especially as NAL is still in ramp up - costs should be lower by 2H as they ramp to full volume and take other optimization steps. Hopefully they'll at least be break-even. A problem in the supply chain is that China is the only place to convert at present and shipping costs from Quebec to China is a competitive disadvantage relative to Australia. Transport to Corpus Christi for Tesla is much cheaper, hopefully that will be up and running to take more NAL product very soon. NAL has strategic value for North American supply chain.
There are good reasons why lithium chemical companies like Albermarle and Posco are not investing in lithium from clays and sticking to processing spodumene which is well understood.
appreciate the comment.
Americans like to get hung up on government ownership of assets as though it's a dangerous and corrupt thing. Meanwhile in the rest of the world industry usually relishes such partnerships and the underwriting benefits it brings to sector confidence and capital market participation.
In the USA, other than the military, government usually does things relatively badly - look at Amtrak the post office, high speed rail in California. The IRA and in particular the Loan Programs office led by Jigar Shah looks to be a good example of private/public partnership that hopefully will go well. No doubt there'll be some winners and losers, but in our divisive political climate, the free market/anti-industrial policy capitalist mentality on the right will no doubt be looking for new "solyndras" to exploit.
So many riding on the LAC/Lithium hype that was '21/'22 - Hopeful this GM deal can be secured and LAC can be running by 2028 as per their timeline. Thoughts on LAAC?
I prefer risk/reward for LAAC which is in production, but IMO Arcadium risk/reward is even better for Argentine brine exposure.
EV companies need to figure out the Cold Factor with the batteries…. Plus North America needs to be doing the full ecosystem from mining to making batteries to recycling ♻️ batteries here in the USA. And put this on the fast track!
Good points
Well a very good conversation but unfortunately no answers. Albemarle have not moved on building new their lithium hydroxide refining capacity and now rely on Chinese refineries. Have they lost the capacity to refine spodumene? PLL still scratching around needing a rezoning of residential lands to build a refinery. Please give me a break. PLL and Keith are such a disappointment and hot air. Thank goodness for Tesla and let’s see how difficult it is to refine lithium hydroxide. My own view is that the oil and gas industry are just so big, so strong so good at lobbying that things will just drag on and on in North America. I think the Koreans and the Japanese will win the race while people argue about the need for more free government money. However have we really overestimated the size and scale of spodumene demand to generate the Lithium. Clearly the demand for graphite is no where near as big as marketing led us to believe and currently it’s all synthetic produced graphite. Europe is full of hybrids and Japanese and Korean cars and Chinese manufacturers dominating new vehicles. The US Market is off on your own and frankly do not want change. Hence protectionism in the land of free enterprise. Keep up the great work and I’ll pour myself another nightcap before going back to sleep. Does this man know that China installed more solar last year than the rest of the world? Motor vehicles is just the start. Cheers.
@@RockStockChannel eventually and especially in the USA states that have the most having EV cars will be the first states to really produce battery recycling. Eventually, in the curve of batteries, it would only be urban mining probably around 2040 2050 will be the start of that.
@@Slab_Studios thanks
This conversation goes off the rails when you talk about Tesla.
Care to elaborate?
I apologize for being perhaps too curt. I was disappointed that there wasn't a more numbers-based discussion about vehicle sales, market-share etc., on which we could build an understanding of what's actually happening in the EV market. Your interviewee admitted that he doesn't cover Tesla, and so that might explain why it was a more qualitative rather than a quantitative discussion.
Dealers should start offering EV-ICE packages, two cars for the price of one*! Buy a Suburban, get a Volt for free*!
Haha
Mines like NAL deciding to stay open even though they don’t make money is the reason why prices remain low.
They have an offtake agreement with a $500/ton floor and $900/ton ceiling on an SC6 basis. So if they aren't making money at those prices they have no one to blame but themselves.
NAL's small volumes I don't think are influencing market pricing. Pilbara and SQM pedal to the metal ramp ups have much greater impact on price. Closing mines and re-starting them is more costly than keeping them running, especially as NAL is still in ramp up - costs should be lower by 2H as they ramp to full volume and take other optimization steps. Hopefully they'll at least be break-even. A problem in the supply chain is that China is the only place to convert at present and shipping costs from Quebec to China is a competitive disadvantage relative to Australia. Transport to Corpus Christi for Tesla is much cheaper, hopefully that will be up and running to take more NAL product very soon. NAL has strategic value for North American supply chain.
@@RockStockChannel hopefully they keep going