The Caucasus: Peace Negotiations and The Global Energy Transition

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has set in motion new security and power dynamics across the wider Black Sea region. The conflict, which continues to overwhelmingly preoccupy the Kremlin created a power vacuum in the South Caucasus and, in the aftermath of the recent series of wars over Karabakh, opened up space for peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These negotiations may not only lead to a normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani ties following three decades of conflict but also open the possibility for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey, with ample economic, political, and security effects for the entire region.
Russia’s aggression has also created energy supply shortages in Europe, drawn the South Caucasus closer to the continent, and rushed the energy transition in many instances. Azerbaijan is becoming an ever more important energy supplier to European customers. At the same time, Baku is investing in key renewable energy projects, with an eye to becoming a major clean electricity exporter, and is set to host the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in November 2024.
This panel discussion brings together two of this year’s Black Sea Program Title VIII research fellows to present their findings on the South Caucasus in the context of new security arrangements, peace negotiations, and the global energy transition. The research fellowships are granted by the US State Department for the Middle East Institute’s Black Sea Program