A ‘Big Short’ investor sees financial disaster brewing in housing markets - again
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 มิ.ย. 2024
- A ‘Big Short’ investor fears an often-overlooked climate risk could see history repeating itself in the housing market.
Dave Burt, CEO of investment research firm DeltaTerra Capital, was one of the few skeptics who recognized the real estate sector was teetering on the brink of collapse in 2007.
He helped two of the protagonists of Michael Lewis’ bestselling book “The Big Short” bet against the mortgage market in the lead-up to the 2008 economic collapse. As it turned out, they were right and made millions.
Now, Burt believes the mortgage market is underestimating another systemic issue: flood risk. If realized, he warns the fallout could resemble the massive correction seen during the global financial crisis.
“Ultimately, until people have good information about what these climate-related costs are going to look like, we’re creating new problems every day. I think that’s really the crux of the matter,” Burt told CNBC.
So, why does the U.S. housing market seem to be underestimating the cost of flooding? What does this mean for homeowners and homebuyers in the U.K. and around the world? And what can be done to mitigate this risk?
Watch the video above to find out.
#CNBC #Property #HousingMarket #Floods #ClimateChange #Sustainability
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Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with “Christine Jane Mclean’’ a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. In these circumstances, I would always advise getting professional help so they can steer you through choppy markets and just give you indicators and strategies for knowing when to enter and exit the market.
Thanks so much I was able to find her page and I already leave her a message..
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
The issue is this! Most often, those with little to no experience in the stock market attempt to buy on their own. It previously occurred to me, but I learned from it and contacted “Margaret Johnson Arndt” a finance expert with offices in the US, and everything changed. I earned $370k so far in the first quarter of this year.
Margaret Johnson Arndt maintains an online presence that can be easily found through a simple search of her name on the internet.
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
I agree that rising interest rates are making it harder for consumers to afford homes in addition to rising costs. A strong FA can help you assemble your portfolio.
The housing market has always had its ups and downs, but it's true that this time feels different. Having a portfolio manager will save you a lot in the market , My portfolio currently has 200% increase last couple of months with the help of my advisor.
in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of lose.
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ “Vivian Carol Gioia” because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; its best to offset some of your real estate investments and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Colleen Janie Towe maintains an online presence that can be easily found through a simple search of her name on the internet.
7% mortgage rates are hardly crazy. I sold real estate when they were 18%.
But the structure of the economy was different, so there's that.
You have to do better than this, lol. So obvious. @@LionTowercoporation
It is in plain sight and yet people seem to be moving to states like Florida in large numbers!!!
Let them move I say.
Many of them don't believe in sea level rise
I just heard that some insurance companies are pulling out of disaster-prone states like California, Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. But, at the same time, three of these four are the biggest economies pulling people in huge numbers for work :-(
My hometown Bakersfield CA was famous in the last housing bubble when a gang of realtors, mortgage brokers, and straw buyer friends n families colluded to buy and sell properties to each other in ponzi like fashion. They bought and sold dozens of properties, made ridiculous capital gains, and manipulated market prices in an entire zip code. They eventually got caught and went to Federal prison. So I've got to ask.... What happens when private capital funds, hedges, high net worth individuals, and shell LLC's do the exact same thing, except it involves hundreds of thousands of properties, billions of dollars, and the national housing market? Nothing?
Home prices increased by 40% in less than 48 months. Why are we acting like that is normal?
One of the most helpful tips I learned was to always check the FEMA floodmaps of a property you want to buy
No. FEMA is a corrupt administrative agency. I absolutely do not belive anything they say.
FEMA can't keep up with their own floodmaps. 100-yr flood zones are now happening every year. It's anyone's guess from here on out.
Those can be wrong but it's better than thinking "yay, I'm right next to the beach"
@@annnee6818when I was buying in NYC I cranked the search to 500 year flood and water levels in 2100 to make sure I wasn’t buying in a risky area.
I would look at the trees. If u buy land in Florida and there are multiple cypress trees looking nice and healthy, u NEED flood insurance.
A 1-pct chance of annual flood actually equates to 26% chance of flooding over the life of a 30-year mortgage.
can we make a wager on the odds they underestimate flood damage for yet another year? meanwhile these households have to amass even more debt, or dig into any savings they can gather, in order to rebuild or re-settle. it's been a trend for a while, so the jury should be out on the data of whether or not we have frequently underestimated the annual costs of catastrophic weather events to a criminally negligent level, because of systemic institutional failures, from insurance company-funded lobbyists to household voters.
In spite of how everyone is frig-htened and calling the crash, there is already an excessive amount of demand waiting to absorb it, which is another reason it's less likely to happen that way. This forecast was not made in 2008, at least not by the general public, as I will explain below. The own-ership rate peaked in 2004, according to the other comment. We reached a peak in the second quarter of 2020 and are currently at the median level. From 2008 to 2012, it fell by 3%, and in the second qua-rter of 2020, it dropped from 68 to 65.
Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. this year will be a year of severe downfall. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned $180,000 savings to turn to dust
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
@@sherryie2 How can I reach this adv-iser of yours?
@@AUstinnesc credits to Nicole Desiree Simon, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up
@@sherryie2 Thank you, i just found her
Not just flooding, but also wildfires and other natural disasters. We were going to by a place, near the beach, in SoCal, but pulled back because we could not get fire insurance. Carriers do not want to take on the risk.
State Farm just stopped writing in California for new fire policies and since they’re the biggest carriers, I suspect others will follow suit to avoid having too much exposure
@Johnny Castaneda At that point, would insurance of uninsurable property not fall on the state? Much like in Florida?
@@shanishine38 Yes. We have the California Fair Plan which a program of last resort but even their rates have gone up pretty steep in certain areas
@@johnnycastaneda2371 correct. I sell insurance in Texas and seen the report they came out with this morning. Current insureds are gonna be in for a rude awakening when their policies dont renew at renewal time. The state farm rep who was speaking during the interview mentioned this much being something that will happen.
@@williambarrera4629 Yes it’s crazy. I own an insurance agency in California and it’s pretty nuts. Everyday UW guidelines are changing
Engaging in an individual option is fair but its performance level can’t generate high dividends. Diversification is the secret to optimal performance, that’s why I have my interest set on options based on projected growth and performance.
Do not lay your eggs in one basket.” I engage on various options with the aid of my pro, *JENNY PAMOGAS CANAYA* and so far have acquired so-much
I just searched *JENNY PAMOGAS CANAYA* out of curiosity, her profound dexterity looks too ideal for everyone on board!
People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
buy now, home prices will not go lower. If rates drop, you can refinance
this is quite huge ! what have you invested in ? much more info needed please ...
this is spun like the housing crisis of 2008. But the impact is very different. If you were a homeowner, 2008 meant you lost a ton of value and investors started snatching up property all over the place for really low prices.
Imagine if everyone who allowed it to happen last time was locked up, it would never happen again.
sure it would. its like saying if you lock up drug dealers there would be no drugs. there is always someone right behind them to take their place and capitalize on the void
what I don't understand, is if people already know they live in flooding zones, they don't build their house elevated to minimize damage.
why would they if many are probably already stretching themselves to evem buy the property and assuming everything will be alright. they would just have to amass more costs/debt they can hardly afford over the long term.
Cause most are investors or flippers....
maybe if u buy a shack in a floodplain, just wait for the disaster relief money and then build ur castle on stilts
What you don’t understand is that most of the world is poor. They inherit the homes and have little excess income to make any renovations. Those who break the poverty cycle move altogether.
You're assuming floodwaters will always recede. At a certain point, the coastline moves and even a house on stilts needs road access and utilities.
Of course investors aren’t terribly worried, they sell the properties, they aren’t living in them.
They legally screw people any state that lets anyone sell property without warning the buyer is just corrupt.
but their "money" debt is tied up in these houses and they have to pay the mortgages.
After La Nina dumped record rain along Australia's east coast a few short years back, we turned on our televisions to reports of another major flood in Australia's third largest city, Brisbane. Not as devastating as 2011 but the 'once in a century' line spun by government was clearly proven wrong. While insurers jacked up premiums for flood insurance, demand for riverfront real estate remains very strong in the River City : we are an odd species.
Same in FL. Investors flock to hurricane destroyed areas
I feel this would make homes even more expensive because people will move inward away from flood zones and cause a housing shortage.
Already happening in miami
It depends on the availability of land not too close to flood vulnerable areas. In other words, there is always a risk of flooding no matter where one builds a home.
I think this is already happening in Canada as a lot of immigration is driving home prices up. I think a lot of this immigration is at least influenced by global climate changes.
We already have a huge national housing shortage. Ohio alone is short 250,000 homes. Combine that with the other states.
@@cnwil4594 what you are saying is bananas. there are 10s of thousands of homes where it is impossible for them to flood, unless you had a global flood that is. which as far as we know has never happened
If you want to be successful financially, if you don't want to be poor, stop saving and develop the high income skill, Develop the side hustle on the side, your job is no longer enough, your business is no longer Enough, you need something.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market
Indeed, my approach mainly involves buying and holding stocks, but my portfolio has been in a state of losses for an extended period. Regrettably, achieving substantial gains necessitates maintaining consistency and periodically restructuring your portfolio.
in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
@@maiadazz Impressive can you share more info?
Actually, I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, and “ Laurel Dell Sroufe ” remains the most resourceful thus far. Her strategy proves profitable, and sustainable both in a bull & bear market. Most likely, her deets can be found on the net, so you can confirm yourself.
I have no sympathy for these Corporations that bought up huge numbers of houses hoping to turn a huge profit on them. The ridiculous thing is the home I bought (after down sizing from another home) 7 years ago has tripled in value. Of course if I sold I would have to buy in this same out of control market or move hundreds of miles from the city.
Added to my list "watch in 2033"
The home has since ancient times been a base, and work to secure a foundation has been as extension of the household. The current system reverses this relationship, such that the house as the object to be attained through work. We can renew capitalism by reappraising housing as a separate form of currency, setting housing outside of the market as it should be.
When shopping for a home, take the time to look at a topographical map. It's quick and free and a few feet can make a big difference.
yeah i always have that in mind, i just don't have the money yet 😭😅
Don't "big short" investors hope for disaster? 🤔🤔🤔
Most people don't even realize that the economy is collapsing and there is an increasing rate of unemployment worldwide so take advantage and prepare while things are still on the shelf in the store
Wouldn't less housing from flooding make prices go up? And possibly the stocks and markets that make money from housing sales? I could see less money overall being in the markets but people will have to live somewhere. Seems like just more housing would be bought in areas that are undeveloped in the US.
And what happens to all of the people who own property that has flooded or is at risk of flooding? Who will buy from them? With what money will they buy homes in dryer places? Plus regions running out of water in the southwest, who will buy homes without running water? And the areas at high risk of forest fires, who will buy their destroyed property likely to have repeat performances? I live in a pretty sweet spot, not a concern for me but I worry about the people who lose everything trying to find homes after losing theirs and unable to rebuild.
The numbers that the sky sites seem ridiculously low. I’m just concerned they’re trying to psychologically reduce the severity of the problem by knowingly inserting numbers which are preposterously low.
so $800B over $40T is a 2% correction, why is this a big deal?
Might cause ripple effects felt in the global economy, e.g. the Jenga metaphor in the beginning
You should absolutely trust investors who short the market.
I've grown so much over the past few months and a big thanks to Mr Gary Gensler and her effort to get me there...
I basically didn’t know much about Crypt0 before I met Mr Gary Gensler , now I can navigate the market myself.
Best signal provider in the market. Knowledgeable, level headed (no loss like some other traders who recently jumped on the bandwagon).
@@JanifarLocak bot
@@JanifarLocak Get a real job and contribute something to the world.
If the losses continue they will not insure folks any longer, as is happening in the states
Just close your ears and pretend all is well. You will be fine.
i always do that, works everytime.
Don’t look up
They are building like crazy in Lee County Florida which is Fort Myers/Cape Coral. Cape Coral had the most canals of any area in the world.
Residential real estate values are declining. This trend will continue for over a decade. Demand is dead. Stagflation is present. -30% in home values by this time next year. On top of the -8% already seen nationally.
Why are we talking about flooding when we have an actual financial crisis that was created through covid with poor policy making from global governments 😂
The longer we wait, the more expensive they get. This is insane. There are no right answers. Western Sydney got smashed by massive floods and prices still went up. It's insane to live in a rural area, earn 6 figures and still be poor. Our country (Australia) is in serious trouble.
Florida is a flood risk they knew but hey let’s make this money and let the buyer loose.
Empires fall when their economy crumbles under runaway military spending, coupled with economic inequality leading to social unrest.
Maintaining the military end of an empire is expensive. You need a well-maintained economy that is stable in the long run. This is what we amateur, armchair historians often underestimate. A budget deficit can only be maintained for so long until it becomes crippling.
Usually, the end comes in form of a war. Not necessarily in the form of a defeat: both the UK and France were on the winning side of both World Wars, but they lost their empires regardless. The strain on economy and resources, coupled with the colonies no longer wanting to be colonies, proved to be too much. The USSR was simply arms raced to death, although the final straw was probably Afghanistan.
The US has, since about the end of the Cold War, been perilously close to the point of no return, in the opinion of people who know about this sort of things. Inequality has caused widespread poverty, even as the richest have become even richer. The US has spent a completely disproportionate amount of the national budget on defense. The budget deficit is basically out of control, even though Democrat Presidents have tried their best.
And last year, the richest got their taxes lowered, the middle class got their taxes raised, and the military got more funding which wasn’t covered by increased tax income.
The US should choose its next war wisely. It is likely to be their last.
Funny, too, that the next war is likely to be fought behind screens and not with tanks and planes and guns and ground troops at all.
I was a mortgage broker in the early 2000s and i seen it coming. I see it coming now. You don't have to be an expert to see it coming.😅😂
@@NM-ro5nf what do you want medal?
When?
stevie wonder could have seen this coming!
How do you become expert ?
Big short one of the best movies ever
Hmm, as people ditch their exposed properties in the US, would that not just exacerbate the housing shortage in other places?
the energy transition will cost many trillions worldwide and will need to be passed onto consumers directly or via higher taxation. I think the most costly flood disaster ever in the USA causing $100b in damage puts things in perspective and indicates why people are focusing on the transition costs hear and now, rather than insurance premiums being way higher in a decade or two. People respond to the prospects of electricity prices approaching levels like in Denmark (the highest wind output and most expensive electricity market in the World) rather than floods which people can dismiss until it happens.
Just FYI, Denmark does not have the largest kWh prices, within the EU Italy has a larger kWh (per EU Q4 2022 report).
The world would benefit greatly from the US ceasing to subsidize lavish energy consumption. Frankly, it is ridiculous that a US versus an EU citizen consumes 2 or 3 fold more energy, both from an environmental and economic perspective.
There will be costs, but conversely, there will also be savings as we stop or reduce subsidizing fossil fuels. An obvious factor is better health status.
Just the removal of most particle pollution from cities would increase baseline developmental outcomes. Which in turn will boost productivity per capita and hence the economy.
Could the US manage to mess up such gains, e.g. by reducing the health of its population faster than gains made by reducing particle pollution etc.?
Yes, it could and it is (e.g. the US now has decreasing life expectancy).
But that is not an inherent limitation of the green transistion, but is a US societal design "flaw".
@@martinlund7987 i'm an optimist and I get that we cant produce energy the same way for the next 100 yrs. But, it is still a massive cost and the transition will be bumpy. Every few years I can imagine back lashes happening on the cost and kind of taking one step back so to speak to alleviate that.
Gas obviously will be really imprtant for base load and then peaking power for a long time yet, thats at least half as bad as coal.
Re Denmark, I read something last year that its like 80% wind and the rest hydro impprted from Norway and eas the most expensive in Europe. I guess thats changed. Still, its two or three times expensive as many places like the US. Thats a tough sell. People focus on here and now once things are not as comfortable.
The cost does not need to be passed on to the consumer. The oligarchy has to come down.
US Gov't needs to stop worrying about their jobs and start worrying about the general welfare of its citizens.
Take the pressure out of the cooker and say that we are in a recession. Reduce the housing market costs and lower the stock market.
High prices for everything have severely affected my plan. I'm concerned if people who went through the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am having now. The stock market is worrying me as my income has decreased, and I fear I won't have enough savings for retirement since I can't contribute as much as before.
It's recommended to save at least 20% of your income in a 401k. You can use online calculators to estimate how much you should save based on your age and income. Saving at least 20% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. By saving this much, you can take advantage of investing in the stock market and potentially grow your retirement savings over time.
Considering the increased complexity since the 2008 crash and COVID, I suggest diversifying your financial portfolio. I hired an advisor and successfully grew my portfolio by over $150K during this turbulent market using defensive strategies that protect and profit from market fluctuations.
The stock market is terrible for building wealth for "most" people. One must have a diversity of sources to hedge or leverage against loss, which "most" people don't have.
Or use flood prone areas as green belts natural reserves and parks. The states of Washington Idaho and Oregon do this and rarely does it flood bad enough to reach private property
Johnson Creek in Portland says hi.
Oh, so LITERAL flooding, I thought maybe they were talking about the flooding of supply because where I live, everywhere I look, there's a new apartment/condo building going up.
It is way overdue housing crisis it need readjustments on prices abot 40 to 45 present
forget about flooding and other natural calamity. House prices has detached from reality. In New England in most places house prices rents has been gone up 100,000$ or more. Thats like paying back 250,000-300,000$ in mortgages over 30 years. Personal incomes has gone up barely has not keep up with inflation. All the money printed get stuck at top 1% of the population as always. People has stretched their budget so much that its very likely there will be a crisis in home value. Every 5% down in price of the house translates to 25% down on the mortgage/equity. Its going to be rough.
Spot on.
Concerning but not surprised.
We absolutely not "all linked by the global economy". This is ridiculous. America is it's own economy.
Keep paying your debt checks , there is no crisis , prices are very stable
I like report’s technique
Here in oz they keep building in flood prone areas and then wonder why they can't get insurance... the same for bushfires. 10:20
Difficult to see a financial disaster unless you purchase in flood areas.
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.
Spot on.
The US economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Would have been nice if they talked to the expert in the title more
The key is the depth of over finances of over inflated property values...
After Hurricane Ian, property insurance went through the roof before most insurers packed up and left all together.
[6:11] the cost of doing nothing is massive
There is nothing in this that says “how” flooding is estimated but climate is the reason?
This time is different Imo
Nice
The price is where I live are so inflated you'll see homes that in 2020 to wear at a hundred grand now they're trying to sell a half a mil.. it's ridiculous and I can't believe Banks be any part of lending... Shades of 2008
OKAY What stocks or futures are related directly to flooding that I can buy PUT OPTIONS :-)
I dont agree. When the government allowed zero interest rates, housing jumped to all time highs forcing the FED to have to step in. They want you to believe that the FED is to blame for the housing crisis, but the housing crisis already existed before the FED stepped in. Flooding along the coast has really driven prices up for all of us. Insurance companies are pulling out of these flood prone areas. It has been coming for some time now. Sooner or later, insurance wont be available for any homes near any coast because of wea level rise.
Population is shrinking and housing prices still near all time highs. You need more people to buy houses 😅
Exactly! There’s nearly 50% gen alpha than there were boomers, gen x, millennials or gen z. As the age wheel moves up there’s less people behind us in this giant Ponzi scheme called capitalism. It always requires people coming in behind to hold up the demand… the only way it can be fixed is with a massive influx of migrants.
Why aren’t there more news reports of the disastrous effect of private equity firms buying houses creating this artificial bubble? Seems few are talking about it, but it’s a real problem
US population will decrease this year and next year. Wait and see.
@@marakima world population yes. US.. no.
@@lindsayann7756 U.S. yes, it's gone up every single year it's existed
It will for Florida that is for sure!
does anyone have a recommendation for an ETF that is bearish on this market? Would DRV be the best bet?
No one is talking about what is happening when student loans return, no matter what your opinion is politically on them (I'm supportive of soem reform although skeptical of forgiveness).
A. 13% of working class has student debt
B. 8% of that debt is private loans, which are subject to todays interest rates
C. Average payment seems fuzzy - but about 400/month seems to be where it lands, maybe the median is lower.
I"m not sure if underwriters have even factored this in. It's an effective tax on the working class weeks away and the (R)'s seem hellbent on applying that tax. I don't see this DOESN"T correct the market. That said, I don't think this is a "bubble". . .mortgage commodities and bad AAA ratings of this deosnt' seem to be in teh market writ large.
Umm no. All the free money they gave away that created inflation is a tax on the working class. Having to pay your own loan is just normal.
This belies the more obvious affordability and default risk, particularly evident in the UK and probably evident elsewhere
UK housebuilders likely to suffer as I predicted 4 months ago publicly on my channel and 6 months ago privately.
To my 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 friends...
Does your state/national government give some kind of aid (ie. Financial / Healthcare / education) to the citizens with low economy?
Thanks before!
Why sound the alarm? No one ever listens.
When I was a kid in the 1970's I was told that Cape Cod would not be existence when I was a grown adult, which made me really sad & ruined my childhood vacation. I wonder if that person is still alive to tell me whether Cape Cod is still there.
The flooding is due to subsidence and blocking of flood plains. It’s not sea level rise.
your name fits your beliefs lol
Sea level rise is part of it.
This will literally only be in a couple states is not gonna be nationwide.
Lost of houses due to flood would cause the house that aren’t impacted to go up. Simple supply and demand.
Can wall street be shorted.
Fascism is unregulated captiol or greed run amuck. It always self-destructs.
Nothing but facts
it is curious that Burt is so interested in which glasses look better...
These properties will be flooding very gradually, over decades, plenty of time to relocate. Obviously less and less people would be constructing in affected areas. Real estate prices would obviously fall, but also gradually, maybe slightly faster than it's depreciation.
I predict a housing crash in the near future due to the increasing number of people buying homes for more than the asking price without enough equity. If housing prices keep dropping, these individuals could face foreclosure if they can't afford their homes. Additionally, selling their properties might not generate any profits. This situation is worsened by expected job cuts and rising living expenses, which could impact many people.
In what price range will people not be able to afford their houses? People are still buying house for cash in the 250-400k price range where i live in western New York. I think the point of the video has to do with rising insurance premiums that will make payments unnafordable. It’s gonna be dependent on certain markets in the US but people have plenty of equity to weather job loss. The houses that are available are from either elderly family members passing away or people moving to another state for jobs
@@andrewberg6278bro no one is buying houses with cash 😂
The debt repayment index in the USA is shockingly poor.
@@sonnyobrienhere in California a lot of people are buying in cash. I work for a bank, and a lot of people have hundreds of thousands of dollars parked waiting for a housing “crash” to buy in. Some are simply giving in and buying in now as house prices started to rise again.
@@sonnyobrien lots of people are buying houses cash in California.
greatwork, thanks for the statistics A++++++@@fahlou2019
I've been thinking of buying a house in Las Vegas just to have it and rent it out since where I live houses are unaffordable. This video is exactly about what I've been thinking. I'm definitely waiting and watching to see how things flood and I'm going to investigate to see how long the municipalities have to designate new flood zones. One of the first things I'd do is have flood drains installed although by the looks of it, the flooding is so severe that land formations have to be considered when thinking of buying property in that area.
I live in Florida and the house market is crazy down here, everyone is moving down here. Waiting for this house market crash so I can jump to be a homeowner. Just waiting lol
I could care less, let it all flood. Cities and governments allowed the building in areas that were flood prone because they are addicted to the money from development. Reap the whirlwind peeps.
No crash, Buffet, wall street etc etc.. know the best zip codes, they will swoop in and buy when folks get evicted.
I cant wait for the bubble to burst. Im a buyer with nothing to buy, because everything is too expensive (meaning not worth buying) we need a 20% cut in property/house prices (notice i didn't use 20% value), current prices dont reflect true value.
Logical fallacy just because someone one the Lottery does not mean they will win again. It would be nice to say like hay do this or any other important info.
I had a fortuitous dream several years ago that a waterfront home I once owned had water flooding the main level floor - it wasn't from Puget Sound -- it was rain water. We'll see 🤓
You forgot to mention that climate change also causes earthquakes.
Ain’t no way this guy just used the same Jenga reference from the big short movie
What’s his point? With more homes flooding and fewer homes available, the non-flooding real estate becomes more valuable!
Live the moment and enjoy life and be healthy
Bout time. These houses are not worth that much. And neither is the land.
Unless builders build regular houses, prices will go UP.
A reduction in inventory will ONLY increase prices.
A reduction in vacation houses will not do anything lolol….
Help the builders build.. please.. duh..
Нет слов, просто потрясающе
So the solution is check flood maps and fortify your property? Lolol. Who can afford to do that. This is all gonna turn out great
People who didn't over extend themselves to get a house. My mortgage is only 9% of my monthly income, making it very easy to fortify.
If you have $100k to spend on a kitchen remodel you can definitely afford to fortify your property
@Bonafide188 lol how many people have 100k for a kitchen remodel, let alone fortifying their house? Goof for you or whatever but that is not the kind of budget most people are working with, if they can afford to buy at all
I've felt Florida is a short for 25 years... I know I am early
I like Jenga
Cities with intact infrastructure and lots of high and dry land will experience exponential price increases. Those cities will need walls around them. So, value goes up but costs also go up exponentially.