Lol I mean the reporter was so defensive it was kinda ridiculous. Like it's not a personal slight against Canada, it's just what he sees happening in the market. If anything they should listen and then try to improve upon what he is saying if it turns out to be true
Dep Nox, if you hate bank fees or interest or whatever, just buy a couple of bank shares (setup an account with TD Waterhouse for instance). Then enjoy seeing the bank dividends landing in your TD Waterhouse account, each quarter, without you moving one finger. At that time you will be part of the "cartel".
She was a VP of Deutsche Bank for 5 years, worked at Goldman Sachs for 3 years and also the managing director of North South Capital LLC. She is not an ordinary interviewer.
She was a VP of Deutsche Bank for 5 years, worked at Goldman Sachs for 3 years and also the managing director of North South Capital LLC. She is not an ordinary interviewer.
a decade of zero and close to zero interest rates around the world means a lot of bubbles are about to pop. Tsla, corporate bonds/junk bonds, real estate, stocks, etc
I think the level of denial among Canadian financial "experts" is an alarming red flag. This man is simply betting that things should go in the direction that they appear to be going. A normal credit cycle. Not a calamity. Even this suggestion is met with resistance. In many cases, vitriolic resistance. Nobody is able to argue why this man is incorrect, I'm simply hearing smears and denial. This is cause for concern. Mortgagees should prepare themselves, especially if you were conned into a variable rate. HELOC users should be at red alert.
Same thing happening here in Australia. The government rushed through parliament a 'bail-in" type law last year. The RBA looking to cut rates and concerned about negative equity for properties. All on the back of a royal commission into misconduct in the banking and finance sector. As usual the banks will be rescued but households will suffer (job losses, foreclosures etc).
15:00 "I don't think there is a Cdn Bank CEO that knows what a credit cycle looks like" no truer words were ever spoken. All Canadians have become complacent to risk. That is WHY it will happen.
Saint Nasim Najafi Aghdam you should be equally angry at the government, particularly Trudeau, for promoting mass immigration which not only causes housing to spike but also suppressed wages
Ok, so he's had six more months of paying 5% divvys on his shorts....and his position is a further 5-10% in the red....I wonder how long he can keep this up???
Instead of putting down 20% you are better off putting down 5% and paying CMHC and investing the rest of your money in securities. You should only put down 20% if you have absolutely no idea how to manage your own investment portfolio.
@@niceshot4563 I do invest. Biweekly I deposit $400 into RRSP n $200 into my TFSA. I have about $20k in my investor edge (TFSA), and $40K in my RRSP inventory edge I also invest in my education, currently enrolled in MPH online. I wanna save up 30% so I dont have to pay a lot of interest in long run, also If my down payment is 30% or more I will for sure lower my biweekly payment. I didnt grow up in Canada I grow in middle east the idea of borrowing $300k from the bank is crazy to me. Cuz what would happen if I lose my job or I cant work? Back home ppl save up so they can buy what they can afford. I hate cc debt. Its rabbit hole u really dont wanna go in. I really like renting, I typically average 5-7 years in each city/town than move once I get better job. I recently got sweet job at Edmonton, $50/hr. I gave 5 weeks notice and it only took me weekend to move. I didnt have to query about selling house or anything. Just packed my bags n moved. So, if I buy house it will stop me from finding great job 😊
@@miaa7097 You are better off putting it in a TFSA than an RRSP. You will pay tax on it when you withdraw from your RRSP, you won't with a TFSA. Max out your contributions on your TFSA, then do RRSPs.
I work in credit risk management for one of the top 5 banks in Canada. I can tell you, while Steve Eisman, is a smart guy with an interesting insight, he's looking in the wrong place. Canadian banks loan loss provisions are lower than what he expects because we have stringent credit underwriting process. For example: B-20 lending guidelines have push mortgage credit underwriting to be more conservative. Commercial loans, for the most part, are reviewed on annual basis. Majority of the bank's debt issued is securitized with either real-estate and/or liquid assets and have partial/full recourse.
@Rick S We're not going to see a crash. Maybe an easing of the market as we've already seen for the last couple of years. Despite personal debt levels, there is still a lot of wealth in the country (not foreign). Additionally, of the 48% with only $200 in savings, how many of these individuals are middle working class? Unsecured non-recourse personal debt/loans account for only ~12-15% of most schedule 1 bank's debt book, where they are risked-base price (meaning borrowers pay the higher interest if they have higher perceived risk). Most of the other debt is either secured via real-estate or liquid-secured with recourse. Regarding the housing market: Rental demand is still higher than supply. Yes, and also despite the money laundering issues noted in the news recently, there is still a lot of legitimate foreign capital that is coming in to Canada. Those riding the bear on the Canadian real-estate market need to do understand a few of things that differentiate our situation from 2008: 1) banks are now better prepared 2) Canadian regulations are much more stringent than the US. 3) Canadians have a higher level of education and better job security than in the US. 4) Canadians have better access to social services (health/education) to ensure more of our paycheques can go towards debt/housing obligations. 5) We are a much smaller economy compared to the US, allowing for faster intervention or discovery of underlying issues. Some food for thought...
@Rick S Like was pointed out by Eisman, residential loans are in large part insured. You need to make a downpayment of over 20% and you need to show you can make monthly payments at the current rate +2% just to get a loan. Credit losses would come mostly from commercial and industrial loans, not the housing market.
There is more than one way to short a stock. Short stock if you have lots of capital or leverage it to make a killing and short call, buy puts, short bull call spread, credit put spread and keep adding to the short positions when the trend continues.
Canada is way over extended and overly reliant on energy and the housing market. Combined with excessive government debt and a rapidly declining economy trouble is soon ahead.
I don't know about in Canada but here in the U.S. houses are selling within hours of being listed & they regularly sell for $10,000+ over asking price. Meanwhile, interest rates remain low, household debt is at a new record high and wages are flat. Let's not play dumb, I think we all know there will be some economic pain in the near future.
Steve Eisman is not the first man to underestimate how much Canada is willing to sacrifice to protect its banking oligopoly and it's real estate addiction. He gave the game away when he said he wasnt expecting Canada to collapse into the ocean. That is precisely what it would take.
Canadian banks were bailed out in 08 nothing fixed, more debt on the taxpayer ..when banks profit they pay big bonuses and when their policy fails, we pay for their failings..a racket.
He is saying that banks are overpriced and thus the reason why he is shorting. 90% of revenues are from the negative loan provisions, he believes that banks will start increasing the loan provisions and consequently revenues will decrease.
@@mard9802 In the video they explain, Eisman said he calculated these three banks are underestimating loan losses. And among other things, he mentioned their dependence on the price of oil. Canada and all of North America is overinvested in oil from the price being so high for so long. It looks like the fossil fuel lobby has been suppressing any meaningful political action for green energy for decades, so now large parts of the economy are not prepared for an abrupt transition.
It's pretty obvious that you felt the need to restate what he's saying because you felt that he didn't state his point clearly enough.. especially if you watch the video to the end.
Eisman saw an opportunity and announced it based on his gut feeling and his subsequent analyses. The reporter has done a lot of homework, interviewed Eisman to let him explained his points, asked him questions to clarify, asked him further based on his earlier answers, further her questions on his bets' intentions and timing of exit. She put across her questions in a respectful and non-judgmental way with good timing, he answered it the best he could without being defensive or getting angry or personal. What an exchange of thoughts. They are both professional. But did the bet work? Let see ... below ... This video was posted on April 11, 2019, RBC share was priced at C$105 more or less, it's shared dipped below that Feb 2020 and Feb 2021, within which the lowest being C$78.50. Outside of the time range of Feb 2020 and Feb 2021, the stock has been higher than C105, today it is at C$126. The dip in the said time range, I believe it is more COVID related than credit cycle. So do you think Eisman got it right and made his bet fruitful?
@@monsieurfortuna9952 How much would the dip be?? For eg if I buy a condo for 400k then let's say in 1 and a half year goes up to 480k then there is 20% dip which brings it to 400k again. Then am I really losing?
It seemed like she was trying to make him feel bad for betting against the Canadian banks. I don't think any sane individual thinks Canada isn't long over due for a major credit correction. House prices need to drop, and banks need correcting, this is reality. Canadian consumers have the highest debt per dollar income in the developed world, they need a good smack to wake up, and a wake up they will get.
At the end of every video or column about Canada it always ends one or 2 ways. I have nothing against Canada & heart it to the max, or It's America's fault. Sheeesh. Canadian banks were positioned well in 2008 crisis and didn't take it as a signal to position themselves for the future. Rested on laurels and got chincy on reserves to keep the illusion of invulnerability.
Ed Banks are a private tool to pump out money from the governments...it goes in cycles at the end is usually a bailout of the banks. Bank of England -private FED is also in private hands...
I think The Covid19 Catalyst was enough for him to close down those shorts on March 2020 :) The banks are still fairly okay in Canada /my opinion/ but that global fall was a good quitting point from the shorts.
Canadians have a PM who doesn't care about economics. When an important sector has problems the Canadian gov't borrows and bails out. You will see government costs now rising much faster than revenue. Canada, from an economic perspective, is positioning itself between a rock and a hard place. Government borrowing and deficits are at record highs. There is crisis after crisis brewing and growing in various sectors like, autos, energy, steel, aluminum, agriculture. Housing is in a huge bubble, Canadians are 1.7 times income levels in debt, that excludes mortgages. With new intitiatives like carbon taxes, open door immigration, high electricity rates in Ont. the cost of doing business in Canada is rising parabolicly. How could Mr. Eisman be so wrong about Canadian banks. Clearly, Mr. Eisman is racist and white supremacist, because he maintains the view that a Marxist socialist economic model is unsustainable.
Yeah you are completely right. Canada has all welcomed alot of refugees who I believe receive free health care, housing and even college courses. The country can't continually draw from the piggy bank forever.
Canadians have credit card debt , the housing market is strong for now but if it declines , with this green energy b.s there commodity sector is being destroyed ,revenues from oil and gas has declined so much that capital is ending up in usa banks
Chinese money laundering depends on Canadian real estate. Just look at the price of a mansion in Quebec. People outside your country can't calculate the 10 million dollar price instead of 4. The oddball prices of your houses kept my boss up all night. He went down a internet rabbit hole.
She was on another similar type major tv show on a different CDN. network for about 5 years. She formerly worked in the financial industry. Smart & easy on the eyes.
2020 unemployment is high, deferral rate is high, and house prices still go up, banks share still stable although there are billions of loan losses. I also don't understand it. Maybe corruption run deep in the system....TBTF.....sorry corrupt Canadian.
He’s missing a small thing. I love how much he went into depth into canadian banks. Now the point is if liberal’s policy of immigration goes on he will lose his bet for sure.
Canadian system, although fragile like so many other countries is not based on the outright fraud that lead to USA disaster 2008. Next crash will come out of left field and maybe not even a bank at root cause. Insurance companies should be watched, risk is their business model too.
I was looking in to this before seeing this interview. I think he is to optimistic. Their are some retarded things happenings with our financial institutions. They are selling bonds backed by credit card debit and car loans. Low income people are stretched to breaking and its getting worse.
My negative economic indicators for Canada..1.more homeless people roaming 2. More people visiting garbage bins 3. more parking spaces on streets 4. More u-haul trucks used every end of the month 5. Oversupply of used cars in auctions 6. more people smoking cannabis 7. increasing scooter and bicycle use 8. high vacancy of commercial space 9. My bank card is rarely used. 10. Some friends staying away..Lastly,, 11th I want to smash something to release my frustration....
Holy crap Steve, WE GET IT. This isn’t against Canada or Canadians. You simply think Canadian banks are overvalued. End of story. Geez, he apparently thinks the entire country is a bunch of sensitive snowflakes that he had to reassure us about 10 times during the interview.
it could mean the tightening of credit - may be harder to get a loan or mortgage through a bank - so other providers will step in, which will increase the cost of borrowing because those suppliers borrow from the banks. if you're invested in RBC, CIBC or Laurentian you could have a loss because earnings were overstated (funds should have been kept in reserve instead of paid out in profits)
Sleeve Of Wizard If liquidity ramps up companies will draw down their revolvers and hold onto cash and lenders will walk away from projects. All this plus the swap curve inversion makes me think it’s 2008 all over again.
1.The CAD already lost 49% value(purchase power) against the USD from the all time high...and it keeps falling. 2.Housing prices are 60% overinflated for decades now...it was not ever realistically sustainable...
John During the strong period ~ 2010 the CAD was around 1.1 against the USD. Now (2019)lets say you buy a Tesla M3; in the US you pay 35,000 whereas in Canada you pay 47,500 which is 36% difference... Furthermore some stuff that you need to buy has a cumulative effect such as the rising fuel prices has...which are already costing more than during ~2010... (Fuel and food are what the average people live on...the ones that buy a Tesla car in Canada (snowbirds)are probably more concerned about the house prices in Phoenix and Florida...)
@@coldfusionspacexxx9814 Was the CAD strong or the USD weak? This was fallout from the 2008 crisis and on top of that oil prices were sky high. As soon as oil started dropping, so did the CAD.
Dan Sprogis Both, the US was still in recession from the housing bubble...Canada was lucky because the Alberta oil boom was huge in relation to the negative factors and sum of those were lifting up the CAD to an all time high...
R S Dr. Michael Burry is also holding stock in GameStop for Scion Capital, there might be something there, when it seems to obvious you should look further into it.
@@fallenangel2123 sounds good the market has got to correct ! US $ still strong against other weak currencies. Still the best currency, given all that is crazy with other worldwide finance !
Follow this link for Bay Street's reaction to Eisman's thesis: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/1.1242415
"You can't have negative loan loss provisions forever" - the fact they even exist should send shivers down your spine.
exactly. defeats the whole purpose of it. Kind of an oxymoron.
Do American reserves banks have any experience with this ?
Wow Steve Carrell NAILED THAT ROLE! He sounds just like him that's so crazy
JBass14 I just realised, that is pretty crazy
Really appreciate Steve Eisman coming on to explain in depth his thinking. Very valuable interview.
He apologized so many times.. I think he became canadian. Lol
Cool joke bro...real fucking original.
Alpha Bravo : say who that canadians are apologetic.
Haha he comes to Canada twice or three times a year... he has become Canadian
Lol I mean the reporter was so defensive it was kinda ridiculous. Like it's not a personal slight against Canada, it's just what he sees happening in the market. If anything they should listen and then try to improve upon what he is saying if it turns out to be true
@@Yentra163 fuck yourself
I'm Canadian. Short away at the banks, no need to apologize for taking from the cartel.
Except all the negative effects it will have on business and us.
Dep Nox, if you hate bank fees or interest or whatever, just buy a couple of bank shares (setup an account with TD Waterhouse for instance). Then enjoy seeing the bank dividends landing in your TD Waterhouse account, each quarter, without you moving one finger. At that time you will be part of the "cartel".
@@johnthompson9602
Cant beat em, join em!
This lady is very intelligent to know how to ask good questions with this guy and keep her cool. She seems very knowledgeable.
She was a VP of Deutsche Bank for 5 years, worked at Goldman Sachs for 3 years and also the managing director of North South Capital LLC. She is not an ordinary interviewer.
"listen I'm not here for 5%"
This reporter definitely did her homework, BNN just got a new subscriber!
Franklin Sanchez Martinez a good interviewer for sure. Clear and direct. No bullshit.
She was a VP of Deutsche Bank for 5 years, worked at Goldman Sachs for 3 years and also the managing director of North South Capital LLC. She is not an ordinary interviewer.
a decade of zero and close to zero interest rates around the world means a lot of bubbles are about to pop. Tsla, corporate bonds/junk bonds, real estate, stocks, etc
ipos are a sign too
Bob Smith 💯
@@schopen-hauer how are IPOs a sign? Just wondering
@@3419651 Because the early investors in companies like LYFT and UBER want to cash out.
nothing worse for the rich then holding overvalued assets
I think the level of denial among Canadian financial "experts" is an alarming red flag.
This man is simply betting that things should go in the direction that they appear to be going. A normal credit cycle. Not a calamity. Even this suggestion is met with resistance. In many cases, vitriolic resistance. Nobody is able to argue why this man is incorrect, I'm simply hearing smears and denial.
This is cause for concern. Mortgagees should prepare themselves, especially if you were conned into a variable rate. HELOC users should be at red alert.
Same thing happening here in Australia. The government rushed through parliament a 'bail-in" type law last year. The RBA looking to cut rates and concerned about negative equity for properties.
All on the back of a royal commission into misconduct in the banking and finance sector.
As usual the banks will be rescued but households will suffer (job losses, foreclosures etc).
The Bail-in laws that you mention, have been implemented worldwide (Anywhere the IMF touches) in the last 24 months.
This guy knows what is up... And down. 🏁
Join Toronto Housing Market Crash group on facebook with over 2200 members, latest housing news, link below facebook.com/groups/213639685923730/
Differnt markets us stick market has been p
Bettingnon canada going down over and over and over. Completly different systems ect
the interviewer is pretty sharp. thumbs up
15:00 "I don't think there is a Cdn Bank CEO that knows what a credit cycle looks like" no truer words were ever spoken. All Canadians have become complacent to risk. That is WHY it will happen.
I love you on the Debaters.
Haha, we're screwed.
That line really stood out. Sobering
"no truer words were ever spoken"...lmao. Please get some credibility before making those statements. Your TH-cam channel is not helping lolll
@@danotic You mean like 30 years experience and making multi millions of dollars? That kind of credibility? Moron!
You don’t have to apologize that much just because you are talking to a Canadian!
Just buy Doge and Qredit coin. Sorry off topic.
@@freedomforall2924 71% loss on Qredit since your recommendation.
I sensed this coming. I'm a Canadian living abroad. Canadians need to wake up.
Canada is fucked. merely a Chinese colony
Vancouver real estate is already down 20-30% and volume is at 1980s levels. That’s got to hurt for the banks.
40% in some areas!
People need to stop buying houses for a year and fuck up the whole system.
here from quebec we seen vancouver housing prices as insanity for so long it's no surprise it crashes, a bubble is a bubble.
wake me up when its down 80% and housing becomes affordable.
Saint Nasim Najafi Aghdam you should be equally angry at the government, particularly Trudeau, for promoting mass immigration which not only causes housing to spike but also suppressed wages
Great questioning!
Steve was spot on, it is going on right now.
Its kinda scary how right he was.
Actually he was very wrong
Ok, so he's had six more months of paying 5% divvys on his shorts....and his position is a further 5-10% in the red....I wonder how long he can keep this up???
Translation, it's just about time for a bankster bailout
So I should save up the rest of 20% and just wait for housing prices to drop.
Gone start home shopping soon
Mona Al if you’ve been listening to his since 2013 and doing that, you still would of been better off buying one back then 🤯.
Instead of putting down 20% you are better off putting down 5% and paying CMHC and investing the rest of your money in securities. You should only put down 20% if you have absolutely no idea how to manage your own investment portfolio.
Nice Shot agree but have to say it ... “we’re confusing leverage with genius” 🧐🤣
@@niceshot4563 I do invest. Biweekly I deposit $400 into RRSP n $200 into my TFSA.
I have about $20k in my investor edge (TFSA), and $40K in my RRSP inventory edge
I also invest in my education, currently enrolled in MPH online.
I wanna save up 30% so I dont have to pay a lot of interest in long run, also If my down payment is 30% or more I will for sure lower my biweekly payment.
I didnt grow up in Canada I grow in middle east the idea of borrowing $300k from the bank is crazy to me. Cuz what would happen if I lose my job or I cant work?
Back home ppl save up so they can buy what they can afford. I hate cc debt. Its rabbit hole u really dont wanna go in.
I really like renting, I typically average 5-7 years in each city/town than move once I get better job.
I recently got sweet job at Edmonton, $50/hr. I gave 5 weeks notice and it only took me weekend to move. I didnt have to query about selling house or anything. Just packed my bags n moved. So, if I buy house it will stop me from finding great job 😊
@@miaa7097 You are better off putting it in a TFSA than an RRSP. You will pay tax on it when you withdraw from your RRSP, you won't with a TFSA. Max out your contributions on your TFSA, then do RRSPs.
It would be great to have both Steve Eisman and Brian Belski in a room talking about the canadian banks!
I work in credit risk management for one of the top 5 banks in Canada. I can tell you, while Steve Eisman, is a smart guy with an interesting insight, he's looking in the wrong place. Canadian banks loan loss provisions are lower than what he expects because we have stringent credit underwriting process. For example: B-20 lending guidelines have push mortgage credit underwriting to be more conservative. Commercial loans, for the most part, are reviewed on annual basis. Majority of the bank's debt issued is securitized with either real-estate and/or liquid assets and have partial/full recourse.
Lol numbers can't be fudged right, you can't take a private loan from someone else for a downpayment right?
Nicknackman : do you know the term “derivative” ?
@@lindafukuyu5767 yes, but in what context? Can you elaborate the point you're trying to make?
@Rick S We're not going to see a crash. Maybe an easing of the market as we've already seen for the last couple of years. Despite personal debt levels, there is still a lot of wealth in the country (not foreign). Additionally, of the 48% with only $200 in savings, how many of these individuals are middle working class? Unsecured non-recourse personal debt/loans account for only ~12-15% of most schedule 1 bank's debt book, where they are risked-base price (meaning borrowers pay the higher interest if they have higher perceived risk). Most of the other debt is either secured via real-estate or liquid-secured with recourse. Regarding the housing market: Rental demand is still higher than supply. Yes, and also despite the money laundering issues noted in the news recently, there is still a lot of legitimate foreign capital that is coming in to Canada. Those riding the bear on the Canadian real-estate market need to do understand a few of things that differentiate our situation from 2008: 1) banks are now better prepared 2) Canadian regulations are much more stringent than the US. 3) Canadians have a higher level of education and better job security than in the US. 4) Canadians have better access to social services (health/education) to ensure more of our paycheques can go towards debt/housing obligations. 5) We are a much smaller economy compared to the US, allowing for faster intervention or discovery of underlying issues. Some food for thought...
@Rick S Like was pointed out by Eisman, residential loans are in large part insured. You need to make a downpayment of over 20% and you need to show you can make monthly payments at the current rate +2% just to get a loan. Credit losses would come mostly from commercial and industrial loans, not the housing market.
There is more than one way to short a stock. Short stock if you have lots of capital or leverage it to make a killing and short call, buy puts, short bull call spread, credit put spread and keep adding to the short positions when the trend continues.
Canada is way over extended and overly reliant on energy and the housing market. Combined with excessive government debt and a rapidly declining economy trouble is soon ahead.
Burnt Offerings rapidly declining economy? We haven’t had a quarter of negative growth since 2016
@@Eric00700 uh uhc un in
Yup. Get ready millenials, your socialist utopia is coming down.
The energy companies are all moving to the usa
Private debt is insane too. Prof. Steven Keen says we are top three regarding private debt in the world and ready to implode!
I don't know about in Canada but here in the U.S. houses are selling within hours of being listed & they regularly sell for $10,000+ over asking price. Meanwhile, interest rates remain low, household debt is at a new record high and wages are flat. Let's not play dumb, I think we all know there will be some economic pain in the near future.
Household debt is NOT at a record high in US, it's pretty low at the moment.
@@emperor68188 Google it... "American household debt just hit a new record high"... many articles from Feb 12th, 2019.
How about Detroit? Hows the market there?
6:08 because they know the government will bail them out. As an American you should know this. It's always we who pay.
Steve Eisman is not the first man to underestimate how much Canada is willing to sacrifice to protect its banking oligopoly and it's real estate addiction. He gave the game away when he said he wasnt expecting Canada to collapse into the ocean. That is precisely what it would take.
Admittedly, had to search a lot of this... but this is pretty spooky. Know what else is spooky? This (at this time) has less than 130K views
Very interesting, I didn't realize how unrealistically the Canadian banks were valuing mortgages.
Mr.Eisman you are right !
I'd be bricking it if I had money in a Canadian bank.
I'd like to see STeve with the same insane eye makeup the anchor has on.
What's the list of banks hes referring to? Thanks
Canada has 5 big banks: TD, RBC, Scotiabank, CIBC, and BMO. They all have large international presences and each have over $500 billion CAD in assets
He mentioned $RY $CM... but i dont understand the 3rd one tho
At minute 16:34
@@PR12Luis Laurentian bank is a smaller Canadian bank. It's like 7th biggest or so. Its size is more like a standard regional American bank
@@andrewjohnstone7943 thanks dude, appreciate it!!
The faith in the Canadian dream is strong.
Canadian banks were bailed out in 08 nothing fixed, more debt on the taxpayer
..when banks profit they pay big bonuses and when their policy fails, we pay for their failings..a racket.
He is saying that banks are overpriced and thus the reason why he is shorting. 90% of revenues are from the negative loan provisions, he believes that banks will start increasing the loan provisions and consequently revenues will decrease.
Hi, I don't know what that means - can you say that in regular English?
@@mard9802 In the video they explain, Eisman said he calculated these three banks are underestimating loan losses. And among other things, he mentioned their dependence on the price of oil.
Canada and all of North America is overinvested in oil from the price being so high for so long.
It looks like the fossil fuel lobby has been suppressing any meaningful political action for green energy for decades, so now large parts of the economy are not prepared for an abrupt transition.
@@michaelcre8 Thank you for that explanation. Much appreciated.
It's pretty obvious that you felt the need to restate what he's saying because you felt that he didn't state his point clearly enough.. especially if you watch the video to the end.
That's some good calculatin'
Eisman saw an opportunity and announced it based on his gut feeling and his subsequent analyses. The reporter has done a lot of homework, interviewed Eisman to let him explained his points, asked him questions to clarify, asked him further based on his earlier answers, further her questions on his bets' intentions and timing of exit. She put across her questions in a respectful and non-judgmental way with good timing, he answered it the best he could without being defensive or getting angry or personal. What an exchange of thoughts. They are both professional. But did the bet work? Let see ... below ...
This video was posted on April 11, 2019, RBC share was priced at C$105 more or less, it's shared dipped below that Feb 2020 and Feb 2021, within which the lowest being C$78.50. Outside of the time range of Feb 2020 and Feb 2021, the stock has been higher than C105, today it is at C$126. The dip in the said time range, I believe it is more COVID related than credit cycle. So do you think Eisman got it right and made his bet fruitful?
What does this mean for the average Canadian that has money saved in Canadian Banks?
I think you only need to worry in the case of banks insolvency. But I think you’re protected until it’s like absurd like $100M
I am going to be closing on a pre construction in Toronto. Should I go ahead or should I wait?
"Rock On" Don’t buy it. Are you insane?
Don’t buy anything right now.
This is entirely a bull market.
@@39PSIOnTheDaily Even if it is for a long term investment??
@@monsieurfortuna9952 How much would the dip be?? For eg if I buy a condo for 400k then let's say in 1 and a half year goes up to 480k then there is 20% dip which brings it to 400k again. Then am I really losing?
"Rock On" Don’t buy at the dip. I live in Markham. Don’t buy anything at all right now.
Real estate is a long term investment with big returns. I just bought my third condo and I plan to rent it out.@@-RockOn-
TD Bank, Royal Bank, CIBC, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Laurentian, National Bank of Canada, of which he is short RB, LT, CIBC
Maybe look at what big stakeholders have been doing with their shares in the last 2 years.
The housing market in Canada is going into the ocean...
I ,seein this years ago coming ,but no one at the fund
Would back me up.
What he says now?
Anyone can give a follow-up on his predictions?
It seemed like she was trying to make him feel bad for betting against the Canadian banks. I don't think any sane individual thinks Canada isn't long over due for a major credit correction. House prices need to drop, and banks need correcting, this is reality. Canadian consumers have the highest debt per dollar income in the developed world, they need a good smack to wake up, and a wake up they will get.
Could this be another early stage ray dalio?
i may advise my dad's firm about this lol, i'm Canadian and i want TD to fall.
damn no TD.. and scotia's not there, good.
At the end of every video or column about Canada it always ends one or 2 ways. I have nothing against Canada & heart it to the max, or It's America's fault. Sheeesh. Canadian banks were positioned well in 2008 crisis and didn't take it as a signal to position themselves for the future. Rested on laurels and got chincy on reserves to keep the illusion of invulnerability.
Ed
Banks are a private tool to pump out money from the governments...it goes in cycles at the end is usually a bailout of the banks.
Bank of England -private
FED is also in private hands...
OK, so he is the Mark Baum. Indeed the actor looks like him.
He's going for at least 30+% given it could take a few months to years to realize
Join Toronto Housing Market Crash group on facebook with over 2200 members, latest housing news, link below facebook.com/groups/213639685923730/
There is a little known fact from the 2008/09 crash.. Every single Canadian bank failed and they were bailed out to the tune of $144Billion.
where did you get your info from.
spreading lies via TH-cam.. rich
Bail outs come after the crisis after the stock shareholders get crushed. He’s not calling for a crisis just a good old fashioned bear market.
I think The Covid19 Catalyst was enough for him to close down those shorts on March 2020 :)
The banks are still fairly okay in Canada /my opinion/ but that global fall was a good quitting point from the shorts.
Canadians have a PM who doesn't care about economics. When an important sector has problems the Canadian gov't borrows and bails out. You will see government costs now rising much faster than revenue. Canada, from an economic perspective, is positioning itself between a rock and a hard place. Government borrowing and deficits are at record highs. There is crisis after crisis brewing and growing in various sectors like, autos, energy, steel, aluminum, agriculture. Housing is in a huge bubble, Canadians are 1.7 times income levels in debt, that excludes mortgages. With new intitiatives like carbon taxes, open door immigration, high electricity rates in Ont. the cost of doing business in Canada is rising parabolicly. How could Mr. Eisman be so wrong about Canadian banks. Clearly, Mr. Eisman is racist and white supremacist, because he maintains the view that a Marxist socialist economic model is unsustainable.
It could be just your an idiot. My magic 8 ball, I mean model, says... "very likely".
Cayrick Pan You are quite funny
Yeah you are completely right. Canada has all welcomed alot of refugees who I believe receive free health care, housing and even college courses. The country can't continually draw from the piggy bank forever.
Canadians have credit card debt , the housing market is strong for now but if it declines , with this green energy b.s there commodity sector is being destroyed ,revenues from oil and gas has declined so much that capital is ending up in usa banks
Real estate is such a hassle.
howd this age ?
Oh that dog is wagging.
Chinese money laundering depends on Canadian real estate. Just look at the price of a mansion in Quebec. People outside your country can't calculate the 10 million dollar price instead of 4. The oddball prices of your houses kept my boss up all night. He went down a internet rabbit hole.
Where did they dig her up ?
She was on another similar type major tv show on a different CDN. network for about 5 years. She formerly worked in the financial industry. Smart & easy on the eyes.
When all those banks all over went into insolvency , did Canadian ones didnt
Huh!?
And the short sellers wait, and they wait, and they bleed money...
, she asks good questions.
It’s amazing how wrong these pundits are.
Is Eisman still shorting Canada banks
2020 unemployment is high, deferral rate is high, and house prices still go up, banks share still stable although there are billions of loan losses. I also don't understand it. Maybe corruption run deep in the system....TBTF.....sorry corrupt Canadian.
Huh, maybe his view is correct we just had a 10 year record of insolvencies. I’d be buy buy buy when it drops though
He’s missing a small thing. I love how much he went into depth into canadian banks. Now the point is if liberal’s policy of immigration goes on he will lose his bet for sure.
Troy Aikmans brother
Canadian system, although fragile like so many other countries is not based on the outright fraud that lead to USA disaster 2008. Next crash will come out of left field and maybe not even a bank at root cause. Insurance companies should be watched, risk is their business model too.
Nice
I was looking in to this before seeing this interview. I think he is to optimistic. Their are some retarded things happenings with our financial institutions. They are selling bonds backed by credit card debit and car loans. Low income people are stretched to breaking and its getting worse.
Can Canadians pls get over the need to be told nice things about Canada!
Layla Layla lol seriously. How many times did Steve have to clarify that he has nothing against Canadians? It was cringe worthy.
My negative economic indicators for Canada..1.more homeless people roaming 2. More people visiting garbage bins 3. more parking spaces on streets 4. More u-haul trucks used every end of the month 5. Oversupply of used cars in auctions 6. more people smoking cannabis 7. increasing scooter and bicycle use 8. high vacancy of commercial space 9. My bank card is rarely used. 10. Some friends staying away..Lastly,, 11th I want to smash something to release my frustration....
It means your assets are in danger!
what.about.bail.ins?
Canada is the 3 rd largest oil reserve in the world
Holy crap Steve, WE GET IT. This isn’t against Canada or Canadians. You simply think Canadian banks are overvalued. End of story. Geez, he apparently thinks the entire country is a bunch of sensitive snowflakes that he had to reassure us about 10 times during the interview.
well the lefties get offended easily...
Otherwise you will see anti-capitalism rally at ur nearby campus.
Weird. That implies American banks are doing much better.
is that why warrenbuffet bought billions worth of US banks?
Something tells me he was just early on this call…stay tuned
he's right.
The housing market in Canada is not going to collapse?!?! Oh... the interview took place 3 years ago! Ask him the same question now, please.
Underwriting Corruption...Insurance Fraudsters!
It will tumble to the mud. 799,999 to buy a shed
The way Eisman is making money today is by betting on the fact that no one reviews their risk weights. might be obvious to many, but BEARs repeating.
Canada? I wanna know about Los Angeles California, United States of America.
TIME TO REAL IN OUR ENTITLEMENTS RETIRING WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN IMAGINED GET YOUR PERSONAL DEBT IN ORDER
Ok, what does this mean for the man on the street, and woman,
it could mean the tightening of credit - may be harder to get a loan or mortgage through a bank - so other providers will step in, which will increase the cost of borrowing because those suppliers borrow from the banks. if you're invested in RBC, CIBC or Laurentian you could have a loss because earnings were overstated (funds should have been kept in reserve instead of paid out in profits)
mr7wi thank you
Sleeve Of Wizard If liquidity ramps up companies will draw down their revolvers and hold onto cash and lenders will walk away from projects. All this plus the swap curve inversion makes me think it’s 2008 all over again.
ZERO!
1.The CAD already lost 49% value(purchase power) against the USD from the all time high...and it keeps falling.
2.Housing prices are 60% overinflated for decades now...it was not ever realistically sustainable...
Ath was around par, where are you getting 50% from?
John
During the strong period ~ 2010 the CAD was around 1.1 against the USD.
Now (2019)lets say you buy a Tesla M3; in the US you pay 35,000 whereas in Canada you pay 47,500 which is 36% difference...
Furthermore some stuff that you need to buy has a cumulative effect such as the rising fuel prices has...which are already costing more than during ~2010...
(Fuel and food are what the average people live on...the ones that buy a Tesla car in Canada (snowbirds)are probably more concerned about the house prices in Phoenix and Florida...)
@@coldfusionspacexxx9814 Was the CAD strong or the USD weak? This was fallout from the 2008 crisis and on top of that oil prices were sky high. As soon as oil started dropping, so did the CAD.
Dan Sprogis
Both, the US was still in recession from the housing bubble...Canada was lucky because the Alberta oil boom was huge in relation to the negative factors and sum of those were lifting up the CAD to an all time high...
Proud of you, my fair lady. We have strong banks. And if housing prices go down, it will be great. Means China is moving on !!
who is she?
This is the same guy who also bet 1 million shares into GameStop last March and said it was on its way to recover. Everyone gets lucky.
R S Dr. Michael Burry is also holding stock in GameStop for Scion Capital, there might be something there, when it seems to obvious you should look further into it.
Good luck with that Steve Eisman.
Ivan what are your thoughts ... ???
What do we do ??
@@johnmills3163 I'm short 🇺🇸 stock market & long 🇺🇸 short term treasures.
@@fallenangel2123 sounds good the market has got to correct ! US $ still strong against other weak currencies. Still the best currency, given all that is crazy with other worldwide finance !
@@johnmills3163 I'm not sure what $ is going to do short term, but it's next big move is down.
@@johnmills3163 The market should retest the December lows. This V shaped recovery is very unusual.
Canadian banks are in very weak positions and worthy of short delta option positions. Those banks share the same mismanagement of risk policies.