Bank of Canada to cut more sharply than Fed: CIBC
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 มิ.ย. 2024
- Avery Shenfeld, Managing Director and Chief Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, talks with Financial Post's Larysa Harapyn about how the Bank of Canada will cut rates more sharply than the Federal Reserve.
Bank failures are likely to continue increasing due to rising interest rates, as it causes their commercial paper and treasuries to become devalued. To prevent a severe economic downturn, it is necessary to implement a freeze on interest rates. Simultaneously, the White House should support the industry in boosting gas and oil production to lower fuel prices. The anti-oil stance only contributes to higher energy costs, leading to inflation throughout the economy. By reducing interest rates, tightening the money supply, cutting government expenditures, and increasing the availability of affordable fuel, inflation will decrease, and the economy will thrive. Unfortunately, various conflicting agendas make it unlikely for all these measures to be implemented, resulting in a recession and persistent inflation.
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why do we keep asking economists what they think? these guys have been wrong on the way up and now on the way down.
Because first nobody knows the future, so your guess is as good an en ''expert'' But an expert might be right more times then you are.
Yeah because they don't know jack shit how economy works.😂
They don't really know very much. They parrot the same shit and add almost nothing of value, they will be the first to be replaced by AI.
Nobody actually know how it works, and what you learn at school is actually the past and not the future.@@NotTooExtreme
@maxrob12 Anyone with a common sense will figure it out. It's not a rocket science. Just look at history. If I was wrong why still the rates are not coming down? Common sense my friend common sense. And let me tell you, don't expect the rates to come down sometimes soon. Common sense.
Interest rates are a small factor, high taxes and needless bureaucratic red tape are, IMO, a larger factor.
Ummm interest is a tax ...its a huge windfall for federal coffers ..forever 100k 6,500$ now interest 1 year ago it was 2,250$ government reaps in 65% of that money 4200$
This guy is crazy. CPI is much higher than than reported which means interest rates are way too low.
Lowering interest rates will add more fuel to rising prices and higher home prices and higher rent prices.
If shelter cost are not considered mthe inflation is already below 2%. BOC will follow fed in cutting rates.
He'd love to loan more money to losers and pay less interest to savers.
but also add in forthcoming carbon tax to whole supply chain, what might that do to inflation I wonder…
High interest rates is the main reason rent prices skyrocketed. You can blame the imaginary greedy land lord that’s trying to keep in line with mortgage inflation. This should provide some relief by lowering it.
Second, no one can afford a home right now because of high interest rates. The demand is high and no one is going to settle for a 2 bedroom condo. People need houses to raise families and it’s either loans or a massive influx of supply(which isn’t happening because developers don’t build to lose money in a high interest rate environment).
Thirdly, interest rates effects all businesses has a trickle down effect. You may not see it because you’re probably a McDonald’s worker, but if you walk downtown you’ll notice that a fair amount of businesses have closed their doors. People have cut back their spending and revenues have decreased for small to medium size businesses. The lower class and middle class are getting eatin alive by high interest rates while the wealthier companies/individuals are consolidating and growing.
@@philip796sounds like you have never owned a business or property and adopted the marxists baloney explanation for the causes of inflation and skyrocketing prices. Artificial Money printing (inflation) causes lower interest rates which causes prices in general, assets, stocks, real estate, food, energy to rise. If interest rates where much higher, prices of all real estate, stocks, assets would crash, and vice verse. It's basic economics which you must have missed. Lowering interest rates saves the rich from well deserved losses and bankruptcy. Higher interest rates would bankrupt and crush the rich, speculators, foreigners, over indebted fools, bad business actors and lower prices across the board. Rents unfortunately will only come down when immigration, foreign workers, illegals, foreign students numbers are lowered. If you want to maintain and increase your standard of living, demand higher interest rates, and much lower immigration numbers, to a trickle. Failing that, expect things to get worse.
The CPI so high and the housing market so expensive is because we have very low interest rate in the last decade.
It is common sense. As of April 1st, there is a huge hike in carbon tax. That will proportionally drag prices up, simply because it will be more expensive to transport goods in Canada. That extra cost will be added to all the goods, and the consumer will end up paying the bill, as always has been. All that, will drive up inflation, which will not allow the Bank of Canada to decrease interest rates at all.
These guys do not see beyond their ego. Either they are paid to say what they say, or they simply do not have common sense.
cocoa up 30%, insurance up 10%+, booze up, gas up, carbon tax, hmmm, not feeling the DECELERATION ya'll...
I tried for long time to lose weight and it only work in the past 2 years with no diet or exercise, I don't go to gym because I work almost 18 to 20 hours a day just to cover my bills and no diet needed since I can't afford anything anymore. Walla justin trudeau you should be named world's best fitness instructor , diet coach .can't belive what's this life coming down to.
No way BoC cuts without a Fed move. Would kill $Cad
Yep….and any product with foreign content sky rocket in price.
The banks sector in Canada being protected by policy has allowed increased amortizations after not being prudent with use of variable rate mortgages. This is all about commoditizing housing to the point of greed...house of cards starting in banking system!!
Another so called bank economist addicted to low rates is yearning for booze. 😂😂😂
Tribal penny pinchers want that sweet, sweet money for nothing yield.
We need a new BoC governor with competence. He is waiting too long to lower the rate and once the weather gets better and gas prices starts going through the roof and inflation spiking back up, they will not have a justification to cut rates. At this point, nothing less than 50 basis points can salvage the buffoonery. We have many people around the country - home owners and renters - getting price gorge, 40k realtors not making money and had to leave the real estate sector, lots of new homes supply ready for folks, but buyers are staying put because the boc will not lower the rates. It's a vicious cycle: nobody can buy the new homes, builders credit pushed to the limit and may soon be declaring bankruptcies, others have taken a wait and see approach before new development, people can't sell their resale homes and can't afford the high mortgage payments, and those incompetent fools out there afraid to make a dramatic move on the rates. What's the worse that can happen with a 50 basis point decline after so many consecutive increases for almost two years? It's just one rate decrease followed by a wait and see approach and if need be direction can always be changed? Fall/winter are around the corner after the heated summer and that's when economic activity naturally cools down anyways and for sale signs taken down. If inflation raises its ugly head, (which it can't significantly in such a short spring/summer window), they can always reverse course. But what we have here is a governor waiting too long to make a perfect move and in the process is messing up like they did before when they took too long to push the low rates up. One word: Backwardigans!
Only way the BOC cuts first is if they have inside info that the fed is going to cut at their very next meeting.
An equal amount as well
Cap on foreign workers thank goodness . Housing is already a crisis
Ha there not required to work so nobody finds the affordable housing anywhere so it’s just Rich profits for debt slaves renting for life? Not to mention where’s the jobs to pay over taxed income and inflation due to over taxation on tax
I thought they told us inflation was transitory?😅
'we want to see less wages' as inflation skyrockets and people are out of money. These people are insane and divorced from reality.
It is time for CIBC and other Canadian banks to lose the penalty using differential rate calculation for last 2 years of mortgage thus should only be penalty of 3 months if cancelling mortgage in last 2 years, not which ever is greater. Highway robbery or white collar loan sharks...your choice!!
Where is OFSI on penalties that are similar to PayDay loan costs!!
Rates are going to go up folks.
It may drop .25-.5 in the short term, but it will rise higher than today over the next couple of years.
Will never happen. They will fake the numbers and accept inflation before we destroy our debt riddled society with further increases. The federal government will spend more on debt interest this year than health care.
IMO, interest and inflation rates will continue to rise.
I love how they talk about wages going down more instead of talking about companies record profits which causes between 40-50% of inflation pressure. In some studies it shows excess profits contribute almost 60% of pressure faced. Corporations cutting labor while gouging consumers on essential products. Where's government stepping in to protect consumers from gouging practices? Wait the corporations are lacing Bank of Canada and Liberal government pockets.
high interest rates mean banks getting a little more generous with who qualifies for mortgages. Right now you have people using savings to supplement their mortgage payments and when those savings run out then the shit hits the fan. I don't think we will see meaningful rate cuts in time to make a big difference. mortgage default rates are going to skyrocket.
Not likely. Inflation is worsening with Trudeau’s tax attacks.
So the BOC are going to cut hard and pump rents and real estate values though the roof.... right. Good call.
Thank you Justln.
@@paulbelisle7213 well Justin threw jet fuel on a sector that had been running away for 15 years.
And every level of govt is contributing to the problem. 2.5% land transfer tax from the Ontario govt, 2.5% municipal land transfer tax, high development fees, horrible NIMBY based long approval process, archaic development restrictions…. The list of stupid is very long. And what’s the answer coming from Olivia Chow? Govt housing. Very expensive to build, forever a tax money pit Govt housing.
He said "decelerate wages". I know he ain't talking about banks.
Most economics have been calling for rates to start dropping this summer over a year ago. Glad to see the math still holds up.
Everyone who makes their living in finance knows that the big corporations, and most importantly the US federal govt both have a disproportionate amount of debt to service late this year.
Everyone knew this 2 years ago.
Ludicrous. Cut rates? Has nothing to do with growth. Cut taxes. Cut government spending. Lower rates will drive real estate prices higher. Lower rates will drive the loonie down and inflation up because we import virtually everything consumers spend money on. Finally close the doors to immigration for a while to get our house in order for us. The number of projected housing starts will not even be capable of housing the projected inflows, let alone the existing Canadians here who can’t afford what they are building now. And the supply that’s currently under construction will have no impact on lowering prices.
Watch the BoC keep or raise rates until November 2025.
So the Canadian dollar will plummet and inflation will rise due to all the imports from USA.
No, house prices pushed up rents and nothing else. So please increase interests and bring down housing price.
If they push interest rates up, rents will also increase as more people will lose their homes and rentals will be in even shorter supply. Additionally, even though house prices may fall, your monthly carrying costs will increase. A buyer is better off paying a higher price for a house with a lower interest rate. That way, more of their payments go towards principle vs interest.
Supply and demand is the problem
The more push up for the interest rate the more rent and inflation goes up
Really gas ,natural gas will be going up April 1 and inflation will increase ,also minimum wage is also increasimg more inflation.There needs to be a housing crash.If they lower it and the US does not ,the dollar will fall and inflation will see a major increase
these are the same people that everyone it was a good time to refinance during the pandemic, and it was a good time to buy, because rates weren't going to rise in the foreseeable future lol.
The government finally starting to see that our "social capacity" has overflowed, and it doesn't bode well for a liberal reelection.
Exactly, like the weather specialists that predicts an upcoming winter as mild, and it ends up being the worst in history, and vice versa.
There is no chance of a liberal reelection
It's called the CPLie for a reason. A basket of goods and services manipulated by government. It does not factor in energy, housing and food. Next let's ask a realtor where the housing market is headed.
The government should have its own construction companies to help ease the construction process and build for no profit. Developers are continuing to control the housing and stop building when prices goes down, thus the government has the solution to solve housing crises by speeding up construction permits and open more buildable areas
Wow you have learned nothing in 8 years
Decelerate wages? Lord / people are struggling enough 😢
This is BS. It is not going down. Why does he not understanding? It was obvious to me from the economics in 2019.
I totally concur with you. I am not an economist and wrote back in 2020, that printing money the way they were doing to keep people at home, was going to bankrupt the system, as that was an irresponsible approach. Today, one of the governors of the Bank of Canada warned that the country lost productivity. For sure that was to happen, when they pay people to stay home and when the time comes for them to get back to work, they realize it is better to stay home, because they get more money not producing. Multiply that decision by million of employees idle in hibernation. Perfect formula for disaster.
High interest rates, immigration and carbon taxes will continue to drive high cost of living and inflation in Canada
The rates are NOT HIGH , 14% and 19% are high rates 6% is not a high rate.These guys are just blowing smoke as usual.
The Canadian economy is struggling because productivity is way down.
Lmao yeah ok june. Bet you he's not willing to bet his job 🤣
These type of people either don't know anything about how economy works or they're trying to make some people beleive in to the rates dropping down. 😂 keep dreaming.
stop having these interviews and just revisit in 2025.
She must really be getting tired reporting these forecasts. I know I am. Who cares report some real news !
I bet you’re wrong
Have never heard so much bs.
All problems in this economy are federally caused, excess immigration low wages housing shortages, overpriced housing from money printing. Lower mortgage cost inflate housing prices more you must be heavily invested in bloated real estate.
Renters will continue to be renters. Thanks to 8 years of Liberal policy.
got news
for you …housing is strong
We need extremely higher rates...plus I'm happy the carbon tax is going up in April.
Me too. Sick of these rate cut criers everywhere trying to be rewarded for their poor debt decisions. If the boc wants to cut, thankfully the carbon tax will offset their stimulus and bailouts for the financially irresponsible
If you want to pay more tax you can freely give CRA as much as you want. You don't have to wait for the carbon tax you can just give them money anytime. Just don't expect others to.
@@epictetus3406 I don't want to pay more taxes...this is why I like the carbon tax...everyone who pollutes has to pay to clean up their own mess rather than dumping the problem onto people who didn't pollute. That's why you're annoyed; you probably pollute plenty but want others to pay for an externalities. I choose not to pollute...that's why I get a tax rebate.
@@WizardHarry69 Same here...the only ppl complaining are the ones who made poor life decisions.
@@JessT-vg7ib you shouldn't make assumptions because you have no idea what I do or how I live. How exactly is paying the government more in taxes going to "clean up your mess" ?
Completely wrong.
this lady and this guy are so out of touch!! are they auditioning for the Adams Family!!
This 'expert' will likely be completely wrong
😂fake news again. insanity in icy super bubble land😂😂