AI That Doesn't Try Too Hard - Maximizers and Satisficers

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ธ.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 1.2K

  • @mihalisboulasikis5911
    @mihalisboulasikis5911 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1558

    "Intuitively the issue is that utility maximizers have precisely zero chill". Best intuitive explanation on the subject ever.

    • @tonicblue
      @tonicblue 5 ปีที่แล้ว +47

      I think this quotation is precisely why I love this guy.

    • @mihalisboulasikis5911
      @mihalisboulasikis5911 5 ปีที่แล้ว +41

      @@tonicblue Exactly. These types of explanations (which are not "formal" but do a much better job at conveying a point - especially to non-experts - than formal explanations) make you realize that not only is he a brilliant scientist, but also has intuition and experience on the subject which in my opinion is also extremely important. And of course, the humor is on point, as always!

    • @tonicblue
      @tonicblue 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@mihalisboulasikis5911 couldn't agree more

    • @Gooberpatrol66
      @Gooberpatrol66 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      So if I have zero chill does that make me hyperintelligent?

    • @NortheastGamer
      @NortheastGamer 5 ปีที่แล้ว +25

      @@Gooberpatrol66 Maximizers aren't necessarily intelligent, they just treat everything like it's life or death. (Which is actually how we train most maximizers, by killing off the weak)

  • @unvergebeneid
    @unvergebeneid 5 ปีที่แล้ว +538

    "Any world where humans are alive and happy is a world that could have more stamps in it." 😂 😂 😂 I need that on a t-shirt!

    • @diphyllum8180
      @diphyllum8180 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      but if they're unhappy you made too many stamps

    • @MouseGoat
      @MouseGoat 4 ปีที่แล้ว +36

      @@diphyllum8180 the robot begins to inject dopamine into humans to insure they always happy XD

    • @logangraham2956
      @logangraham2956 4 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      idk , sounds like something graystillplays would say XD

    • @devoottanr
      @devoottanr 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      0yyhhjiiikioooooö​@@MouseGoat

  • @armorsmith43
    @armorsmith43 5 ปีที่แล้ว +713

    “So satisficers will want to become maximizers” and this is one reason that studying AI safety is interesting-it prompts observations that also apply to organizations made of humans.

    • @PragmaticAntithesis
      @PragmaticAntithesis 5 ปีที่แล้ว +133

      The unintended social commentary about capitalism is real...

    • @killers31337
      @killers31337 5 ปีที่แล้ว +156

      Well, AI is simply a kind of agent making decisions, so all the theory about such agents still applies.
      Say, perverse incentive problem. E.g. if you pay people for rat tails hoping they will catch wild rats, they might end up farming rats.-- this is a 'maximizer' problem which actually happened IRL.

    • @PragmaticAntithesis
      @PragmaticAntithesis 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@killers31337 I thought that was a culling if stray cats, not rats?

    • @ivandiaz5791
      @ivandiaz5791 5 ปีที่แล้ว +67

      @@PragmaticAntithesis It has happened many times in many different places for all sorts of animal problems. The most famous case generally was snakes in India under British rule... specifically cobras, which is why this is often called the Cobra Effect. See the wikipedia article.

    • @bp56789
      @bp56789 5 ปีที่แล้ว +49

      You think humans don't seek to maximise their own utility if they aren't in a "capitalist" system?

  • @tatianatub
    @tatianatub 5 ปีที่แล้ว +644

    "utility maximizers have precisely zero chill" needs to be on a tshirt

    • @SlimThrull
      @SlimThrull 5 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      Yes. Yes, it does.

    • @Gunth0r
      @Gunth0r 5 ปีที่แล้ว +20

      I would buy Robert Miles merch.

    • @xcvsdxvsx
      @xcvsdxvsx 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@Gunth0r This channel would have the best merch ever.

    • @nibblrrr7124
      @nibblrrr7124 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Well, what if you're a maximizer that values "chill" (amongst other things, or exclusively)? :^)

    • @josephburchanowski4636
      @josephburchanowski4636 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      @@nibblrrr7124 Intuitively the issue will be that utility maximizers will have precisely zero chill when it comes to maximizing chill.
      Also how do you code chill?

  • @miapuffia
    @miapuffia 5 ปีที่แล้ว +344

    Satisficer AI may want to use a maximizer AI, as that will lead to a high probably of success, even without knowing how the maximizer works. That made me think that humans are satisficers and we're using AI as maximizers, in a similar way

    • @ciherrera
      @ciherrera 4 ปีที่แล้ว +25

      Yup, but unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) we don't have a convenient way to reach into our source code and turn ourselves into maximizers, so we have to create one from scratch

    • @AugustusBohn0
      @AugustusBohn0 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@ciherrera inducing certain mental conditions would accomplish this as well as can be expected for biological creatures.

    • @johnwilford3020
      @johnwilford3020 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      This is deep

    • @JM-mh1pp
      @JM-mh1pp 4 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      @@ciherrera I do not want to be maximiser, it goes against my goal of chilling.

    • @randomnobody660
      @randomnobody660 3 ปีที่แล้ว +42

      @@JM-mh1pp but do you get MAXIMAL CHILLING!?

  • @theshaggiest303
    @theshaggiest303 5 ปีที่แล้ว +289

    "Not trying too hard"? Move over, dude, I happen to be an expert in this field.
    Just program the AI to take a break after every five minutes of work to watch TH-cam videos for an hour and a half. Problem solved.

    • @thesteaksaignant
      @thesteaksaignant 5 ปีที่แล้ว +68

      5min later...
      Breaking news ! All youtube servers worldwide are down ! Largest DDOS attack ever !

    • @k_tess
      @k_tess 5 ปีที่แล้ว +20

      @@thesteaksaignant Now, now this only happens if you multi-thread.

    • @thesteaksaignant
      @thesteaksaignant 5 ปีที่แล้ว +33

      @@k_tess let's cross our fingers hoping that a super intelligence capable of conquering the world won't figure out multithreading then

    • @Hakou4Life
      @Hakou4Life 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      I think it is enough to let it watch youtube...

    • @martinsmouter9321
      @martinsmouter9321 4 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      @@thesteaksaignant DDOSing TH-cam keeps from watching said video and, so from getting perfect utility.

  • @superjugy
    @superjugy 5 ปีที่แล้ว +188

    hahahaha, flower smelling champion. I had already seen that comic but its so much more funny in this context XD thanks for the great videos

    • @MouseGoat
      @MouseGoat 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Sooo we really do want to program lazynes into our robots :D lmao

  • @Verrisin
    @Verrisin 5 ปีที่แล้ว +405

    I just realized... If you make it (say AI-1) to want to chill (not work too hard to achieve it)... it will just make something else (another AI) to do the work for it, if it's easier than solving it on its own... right? Then, what it will create is probably a maximizer (because that is the easiest; and it is lazy, and just wants to chill)
    Then I realized..... *We, humans, are the AI-1* ... O.O
    - We are doomed...

    • @buttonasas
      @buttonasas 5 ปีที่แล้ว +34

      Amazing observation! But hey, maybe we can build something that is just ever so slifhtly less lazy? Then maybe it can make an another less lazy machine... But yeah, chances are that might suddenly jump to building a maximizer and that's the end :D

    • @shadiester
      @shadiester 5 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      Holy crap, that's actually so true!

    • @jjkthebest
      @jjkthebest 5 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      Unless that AI cares about self preservation. Normally this would naturally arise from being a utility maximiser, though I'm not sure if it would still be the case for the AI that wants to chill, since it can be confident in the fact that the maximiser it creates will do the job just fine... hmm.

    • @Roonasaur
      @Roonasaur 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      No. Utility =/= Work. If an AI is successfully programmed to not want infinity stamps, it will not do anything to create infinite stamps. It will only willingly create subordinates that also want less than infinity stamps, and will put in a lot of work to act against any subordinate that is a "maximizer" which will create infinity stamps.
      When Guy-who-needs-a-haircut says he wants AI to "chill" . . . What he's really wanting is for it to look for "balance." And, expert I am not, but that doesn't seem like an impossible thing to code.

    • @Verrisin
      @Verrisin 5 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      @@Roonasaur But that is not what it wants. It wants "at least N" - and infinity is good way to assure it will get at least that much. It has nothing against infinite amount of stamps.
      - But I am already thinking about why this isn't as bad as I feared originally: Especially: I think it's not necessary (or even that likely) for a satisficer to become a maximizer. The rest of my 'argument' seems sound to me, but this just does not _feel_ right... I haven't had time to think about it properly, but I think there is something there....
      What he really wants does not matter. Only the utility function he can specify for the AI.

  • @NancyLebovitz
    @NancyLebovitz 4 ปีที่แล้ว +64

    For anyone who missed it, the closing music is "Dayenu", a Hebrew song with a refrain of "it would have been enough". It's a nice choice.

    • @AndreRhineDavis
      @AndreRhineDavis 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      I noticed this, it was really clever

  • @SapkaliAkif
    @SapkaliAkif 5 ปีที่แล้ว +101

    2:57 "You can't perfectly simulate a universe from the inside." is a good motto to have if don't want to overthink stuff. Science is cool

    • @orangeninjaMR
      @orangeninjaMR 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      This is actually false. It depends entirely on the complexity of the system relative to its size: a large but simple system can have its information "compressed" into a replica within itself, and indeed the fact that real-world physics is at all effective is a result of the fact that some (if not all) of the systems in our universe are compressible in this way. A fun example in the very simple universe of Conway's Game of Life: th-cam.com/video/xP5-iIeKXE8/w-d-xo.html

    • @SapkaliAkif
      @SapkaliAkif 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@orangeninjaMR I am no expert, but this seems to ignore something. You can get results this way -if you are looking for results- but you cannot perfectly simulate and observe all the details. So is it really a perfect simulation or is it just a miniature version that gives you the info that you want?

    • @orangeninjaMR
      @orangeninjaMR 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@SapkaliAkif you ask for a perfect simulation, which I would take to mean a "copy containing all of the same information", which demands nothing about observation... but on the other hand if all an AI wants is to predict the utility of the outcome, it doesn't need to be able to observe all of the details, just the number of stamps that it results in!

    • @SapkaliAkif
      @SapkaliAkif 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@orangeninjaMR Oh I forgot we were in the comments of a AI video.

    • @CircuitrinosOfficial
      @CircuitrinosOfficial 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@orangeninjaMR Doesn't the halting problem disprove the ability to perfectly simulate a universe from the inside?
      For the simulation to perfectly simulate the universe, it also needs to include itself in the simulation because it is a part of the universe. Because of this, it is possible to have situations where the act of the simulator printing out it's answer of the simulation can change the result of the simulation.
      For example:
      Let's say you ask the simulator if your friend is going to invite you to their party.
      If the simulator says yes, you start acting differently towards your friend and end up annoying them. So they decide not to invite you to the party after all. So the simulator was wrong.
      If the simulator says no, you act normal so your friend does invite you to their party. So the simulator was wrong.
      In this situation, the only way for the simulator to accurately simulate the situation is to not tell you the answer.
      But if you designed the simulator to always print out an answer then it can never correctly simulate this situation.

  • @Cobra6x6
    @Cobra6x6 5 ปีที่แล้ว +217

    Have you guys played the game Uniserval Paperclips? It's free, and basically you play as the Stamp Collector AI. You're maximizing the number of clips. I kinda loved it to be honest.

    • @Trophonix
      @Trophonix 5 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      I also thought of this while watching! Make everything paperclips!!!

    • @zac9311
      @zac9311 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      That sounds awsome. Is it good?

    • @Trophonix
      @Trophonix 5 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      @@zac9311 It's an incremental/clicker game with multiple stages of progression. Google it!

    • @klobiforpresident2254
      @klobiforpresident2254 5 ปีที่แล้ว +39

      So what you're saying is that if I want stamps I must invent and subsequently RELEASE THE HYPNO DRONES?

    • @maoman4855
      @maoman4855 5 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      @@Trophonix i.e. it's cookie clicker but with paperclips instead of cookies

  • @NightmareCrab
    @NightmareCrab 5 ปีที่แล้ว +43

    "Can you relax mister maniacal, soulless, non-living, breathless, pulseless, non-human all-seeing AI, sir? Just chill, don't be such a robot."

    • @baranxlr
      @baranxlr 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      "SHUT UP AND RETURN TO THE STAMP MINES, MEATBAG"

  • @herp_derpingson
    @herp_derpingson 5 ปีที่แล้ว +112

    Historically speaking, several humans have brought apocalypses while they were trying to maximize something.

    • @qwertyTRiG
      @qwertyTRiG 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Thomas Midgely Jr, for example.

    • @SamuelKristopher
      @SamuelKristopher 5 ปีที่แล้ว +22

      We're doing it right now on several fronts

    • @Nosirrbro
      @Nosirrbro 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@qwertyTRiG Well, that and his pope infestation

    • @DiThi
      @DiThi 5 ปีที่แล้ว +29

      I was thinking exactly that: Analyzing corporations as if they were AI agents, they're literally doing everything described in this channel. It's not that corporations are bad. The system itself (capitalism) creates agents that modify their own source code (laws) to maximize capital accumulation.

    • @josephburchanowski4636
      @josephburchanowski4636 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@DiThi th-cam.com/video/L5pUA3LsEaw/w-d-xo.html
      They are some fairly fundamental differences between Corporations and AGI.

  • @AsteriosChardalias
    @AsteriosChardalias 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    The content and the comments on this channel always gets me reflecting on the 'human condition' and how much trying to build AIs teaches us about understanding ourselves.

  • @MrBrew0
    @MrBrew0 5 ปีที่แล้ว +29

    Hello Robert!
    Let me start by saying, your channel is probably my favorite channel on TH-cam. I'm a compsci student, AI enthusiast, and your insight and explanations in the field of AI are really entertaining and educational. Many other channels try to present the information in the condensed and easy to digest way, which is fine, but I would really like to see more advanced content on YT. Maybe you have a recommendation for me?
    I was wondering, you don't upload videos very frequently. I really appreciate your work and would be very happy to see more content from you, but if it is because you are busy or want to provide quality over quantity I'm all for it too!

  • @bejoscha
    @bejoscha 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    This is one of the better videos (of all your good ones). I like it very much. Speed is well adjusted (a tiny bit slower than usual), explanations are concise and good. Just a good watch. I'm definitely looking out for the next... Thanks for breaking down such complex topics into digestible chunks for (near)-leasure watching. I feel this is the kind of "solid" common-sense understanding of AI future generations will need to have, even if being an expert in the field is out of reach. More complicated life? Yes, but that's just as it is. People 500 years ago could do with a lot less "every-day complexity" than today as well...

  • @smort123
    @smort123 5 ปีที่แล้ว +82

    7:53:
    "- Control human infrastructure
    - ???
    - STAMPS "
    lol

    • @davidwuhrer6704
      @davidwuhrer6704 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      Replace stamps with money, and watch the world burn.

    • @revimfadli4666
      @revimfadli4666 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@davidwuhrer6704 especially if it adapts to any new currency made to solve the problem

  • @Elyandarin
    @Elyandarin 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    My impression about AI is that you can only ever maximize for one utility function, but you can satisfice as much as you want, as long as you are OK with the failure state of [doing nothing].
    So, you satisfice for "at least 100 stamps expected in optimal case", satisfice for "at least 95% chance of optimal case", satisfice further for "zero human casualties" and "with 99.9% certainty", let the planning engine spin for an hour or until 100 plans have passed muster, then maximize acceptable plans according to something like "simplicity of plan", "positive-sum outcomes" or "similarity to recorded human interactions".
    ...Well, there's probably a lot that could go wrong with that, even so, and I'd probably add some more complex safety measures after considering everything that could go wrong for a couple of months, but that's what I'd start with, were I to program AI.

  • @qzbnyv
    @qzbnyv 5 ปีที่แล้ว +20

    Reminds me a lot of asymmetric call option payoffs from finance. And a lot of near-bankrutpcy decision making for corporations.

  • @CircusBamse
    @CircusBamse 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    I absolutely love your outro, I dunno how many people does not know or recognize your parody of "Chroma Key test" xD

  • @lambdaprog
    @lambdaprog 5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Add one or more smooth penalty terms to your utility. By smooth, it means that the penalty is a continuous monotonic function of the distance to the safe region with zero when inside the safe region. The penalty terms can be designed to sanction over-optimization (optimizations with little *expected return*), or instability (apocalypse).
    This is a common technique used in non-smooth bounded optimization in capital markets portfolio management where the individual investment per asset within the portfolio is bounded to avoid increasing the portfolio's exposure to market risks.
    I also found similar applications in digital signal processing with adaptive filters that rely on intrinsically bad forecasts (poor statistics) due to the latency constraints (time is the actual resource), available dynamic range of the processing (analog and/or digital) and the power consumption (the thermal stability).
    Looking forward to your next video!

    • @dlwatib
      @dlwatib 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Actually, we usually have a pretty good idea what the safe region is, and if not, we can run the AI in shadow mode to see what it says it would do if set free to do as it pleases.

  • @elfpi55-bigB0O85
    @elfpi55-bigB0O85 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    You're absolutely awesome, Miles. Thank you for blessing us with your high quality content

  • @Darth_Pro_x
    @Darth_Pro_x 5 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    What if you limit both utility and confidence in expected utility approach?
    For example, more than a hundred stamps don't add utility, and more than 99% confidence that it had achieved it's goal isn't worth more utility.
    It probably also fail spactaculerly, but it's interesting to see how

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      "Hmmm. My utility function treats all percentages higher than 99% as exactly 99% for the purpose of expected value. So, my original plan that has a 99.9999% chance of getting 100 stamps isn't gonna cut it, because it leaves almost 1% of the possibility space unused. Ooh, ooh, I got it! I'll give myself a 99% chance to have 100 stamps and a 0.9999% chance to have 99 stamps! Genius!"

    • @serversurfer6169
      @serversurfer6169 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      I was thinking something similar. If it has a 99% chance to satisfy the goal, why doesn’t it see how that goes before it starts considering supplemental or compensatory strategies? 🤔

    • @Aconspiracyofravens1
      @Aconspiracyofravens1 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      a better option would be for it to round percentages
      or: treat options with a less then 5% difference in their likelyhood of succeeding as equal
      in addition, the base model still works, as working against humans has a chance of failure, so a outcome with a 99% certainty is better than one that results in a 99.99999999% likelyhood that has a 2% chance of getting spotted by a investigation algorythim and shut down.

  • @BarnacleBrown
    @BarnacleBrown 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This video was great! Hope to see more videos from you, You've done great work on computerphile as well

  • @khananiel-joshuashimunov4561
    @khananiel-joshuashimunov4561 5 ปีที่แล้ว +36

    Sounds like you need a cost function that outgrows the utility function at some point as a sort of sanity check.

    • @NineSun001
      @NineSun001 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      With a human hurt being really costly and a human killed with maximum cost. That would actually solve a lot of the issues. I am sure some clever mind in the field already thought about that.

    • @nibblrrr7124
      @nibblrrr7124 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Cost is already considered in the utility function.

    • @nibblrrr7124
      @nibblrrr7124 5 ปีที่แล้ว +23

      ​@@NineSun001 You're basically restating Asimov's (fictional) First Law, and the problems with it have been explored in (adaptions of) his works, and ofc by AI researchers.
      Consider that, even if you could define terms like "hurt" or "kill", humans get hurt or die all the time if left to their own devices, so e.g. putting all of them in a coma with perpetual life-extension will reduce the expected number of human injuries & deaths. So if an agent with your proposed values is capable enough to pull it off, it will prefer that to any course of action we would consider desirable.

    • @khananiel-joshuashimunov4561
      @khananiel-joshuashimunov4561 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@nibblrrr7124 In the video, the utility function is explicitly the number of stamps.

    • @foundleroy2052
      @foundleroy2052 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      The costs are Aproegmena and the Agent may safely reprogram itself to be indifferent to Adiaphora; To achieve Eudaimonia.
      Marcus AIrelius

  • @ViridianIsland
    @ViridianIsland 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Just found your channel, about to start the binge! Thanks for the content!

  • @ZarHakkar
    @ZarHakkar 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Issues like these when it comes to practical AI design often make me think of the Great Filter and the likely possibility we're not just quite past it yet.

    • @tiagotiagot
      @tiagotiagot 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      But then, where are all the alien robots?

    • @tiagotiagot
      @tiagotiagot 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@bosstowndynamics5488 But for all the alien robots in the whole galaxy?

    • @tiagotiagot
      @tiagotiagot 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@bosstowndynamics5488 But why did all the alien robots of all the zillion of planets in the Milky Way got the same restriction in their programing?

    • @grimjowjaggerjak
      @grimjowjaggerjak 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@tiagotiagot imagine in 150 years humans stumble into random stamps planets

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      The issue is that if ASI is the great filter, we immediately run into the same problem all over again. If ASI is the Great Filter, why haven't we yet stumbled across the paperclip maximizer that once was an alien civilization? (Not that I'm complaining, mind you... :) )

  • @gabrote42
    @gabrote42 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    7:53 This is one of the best missing steps plans I have ever seen

  • @leninalopez2912
    @leninalopez2912 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Hello Miles:
    I've been thinking for a while to ask/suggest you to make a video showing us publications regarding AI, either journals, proceedings, or textbooks... for those of us either completely ignorant on the subject, barely initiated in it, or those already knowing the basics and capable of following the last developments on the subject right from the sources.
    I love your videos, your style, and your expositions... but I must say that at the end of EACH video, I'm **HUNGRY** for **A LOT MORE**.
    Thanks!
    Live love and SkyNet... I mean... prosper (?

    • @SamB-gn7fw
      @SamB-gn7fw 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      You'd love Robert Miles' weekly podcast where he gives an overview of the latest developments in AI safety: rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/

    • @SamB-gn7fw
      @SamB-gn7fw 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      You would also like this online AI safety MOOC series: www.aisafety.info/

  • @kwillo4
    @kwillo4 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Great vid! Last strip on the flowers was fun :)

  • @nraynaud
    @nraynaud 5 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    it just occurred to me that Uber killed a pedestrian by trying to maximise the average number of miles between system disconnections.

    • @Abdega
      @Abdega 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      This… is news to me

  • @lightningstrike9876
    @lightningstrike9876 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    One thing we could try is taking a point from Economics: the law of diminishing returns. In the case of the stamp collector, rather than a linear relationship between utility and the number of stamps, the relationship diminishes with the more stamps collected. Thus, even a Maximizer will realize that any plan the creates above a certain threshold of stamps will actually subtract from the overall utility. As long as we set this threshold at a reasonable point, we can be fairly confident in the safety.

  • @sevret313
    @sevret313 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    What about two bounds?
    One for the utility function and another for the expected value?
    So if you bound the expected value to 100 and the utility to 150, then ordering 150 stamps might give you an expected value of 147 stamps. But you bound this to 100.
    So if you've a 50:50 between 0 stamps and 1 trillion stamps, under this bounds it will get an expected value at 75, less than just ordering 150 stamps.

    • @_DarkEmperor
      @_DarkEmperor 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Realistic Stamp Collecting AI, would get limited resources. So, AI, i give You 1000 000 $ and get me as much stamps as You can get in 2 years.

    • @sevret313
      @sevret313 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@_DarkEmperor It could always steal money to finance it stamp production.

    • @rmsgrey
      @rmsgrey 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@sevret313 Steal it? Just run the stock market for 700 days and then cash out to finance pure stamp acquisition for the final month. Of course, maximising the available resources on day 700 means promoting as big a bubble as possible, which means there's going to be a hell of a market crash, probably triggered by the liquidation of the AI's holdings - which offers the added bonus of dragging down the price of stamps...
      Of course, you're also talking about years of human misery as a direct result, but you get a lot of stamps in the process.

  • @remmo123
    @remmo123 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Very clearly explained! I will wait for the next videos in the series.

  • @iamatissue
    @iamatissue 5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Did no one get the shipping forecast joke at 9:24?

    • @RobertMilesAI
      @RobertMilesAI  5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I believe you're the first to

  • @nickmagrick7702
    @nickmagrick7702 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    "the issue is that utility maximizers have precisely 0 chill" I loled. nice way of putting it

  • @willdbeast1523
    @willdbeast1523 5 ปีที่แล้ว +27

    To solve the "becoming a maximizer" problem you could have a symmetric utility function somewhat like a probability density function, so any strategy that might result in "a fuckton of stamps" would be actively bad rather than just extraneous (but this wouldn't fix the tendency to go overkill on the certainty side making a billion stamp counters etc)
    edit: I guess you could also use a broken expectation calculation so it would ignore low probability events (like the chance of miscounting 100 times) but that seems a very bad idea from the start

    • @player6769
      @player6769 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      That's what I was thinking... if going over 100 was just as undesirable as going under, wouldn't that demotivate it from ordering 100 stamps twice, since the expected value would be much more different from 100 than if it only got 99 stamps?

    • @chemical_ko755
      @chemical_ko755 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@player6769 That is the same as the case of U(w) = {100 if s(w) = 100, 0 otherwise}. It could result in a lot of stamp counting infrastructure.

    • @player6769
      @player6769 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@chemical_ko755 ah, fair enough. Always another problem

    • @lucashowell8689
      @lucashowell8689 ปีที่แล้ว

      You could just tell it to fudge the numbers if they’re close enough and get utility from the laziness it uses to do so

  • @lunkel8108
    @lunkel8108 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Your videos always were awesome but you've really outdone yourself with the presentation on this one, great job

  • @MattettaM
    @MattettaM 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I have a question regarding that Utility Satisficers become Maximizers.
    Wouldn't modifying its own goal to get stamps within a certain range into get as many stamps as possible conflict with its own utility function? Or is this issue seperate from that?

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Normally, yes, this kind of agent avoids changing its own utility function, but there's a key difference here. Because satisfiers don't have fully defined utility functions, they have no qualms about arbitrarily pinning down those parts of their utility function that are undefined.

  • @pafnutiytheartist
    @pafnutiytheartist 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What if we do a utility function in a following way:
    F(s) = s, if s = 100
    If the number of stamps is between 100 stamps and 120 stamps the reward is 100 exactly.
    If it gets less than 100 the reward is the number of stamps.
    If it gets more than 120 the reward is 220-number of stamps (negative if more than 220 stamps are collected)
    You can also add a small negative term for environment disruption as you discussed in side effects video.
    This way the agent wants to make sure it collects around 100-120 stamps but is punished for the possibility of collecting too much (or turning the world into a stamp counting device if you include the negative term for turning the world into different things).
    It's not a 100 percent way to get the AI to finally chill out but it's very likely to not destroy the world.

    • @pafnutiytheartist
      @pafnutiytheartist 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Example: it came up with a strategy that is likely to yield 115 stamps. It gets 99 for the strategy because it's not 100% sure and penalty of .01 for doing stuff and lightly disturbing the stamp market. Final value 98.99
      If it creates a crazy disturbance to make shure it gets what it expects like rewriting itself and creating new agents that make sure that 100% of the stamps are collected it will get 99.9999 points and -5000 penalty for expanding resources and changing the environment.

  • @shadowmil
    @shadowmil 5 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    So... what about a bell curve? Get as close to 100 stamps as possible, but as you get more than 100, the score decreases. So getting 1,000,000 would be rated low, even lower than 0 stamps. The goal of making yourself a maximizer would also be rated very poorly.

    • @jamesrockybullin5250
      @jamesrockybullin5250 5 ปีที่แล้ว +18

      He addressed that in the video. You don't want the world to be made into stamp-counting machines.

    • @puskajussi37
      @puskajussi37 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      One common problem seems to be that the utility function never tells the machine what we don't want it to do. You could subtract "the effect the agi has on world" from the utility and (especially if it uderstands concepts as "order of 100 stamps from a factory is normal") could lead to solutions where the stamps arrive at a convenient time to not disturb your day.
      Then again, it would also lead to solutions such as "lets not tell the human he has the stamps, maybe he just forgets about them without fuzz" or "lets perform poorly so this AGI tech doens't get used and disrupt the whole world with its usefullnes."
      Didn't Robert speak about this too, I forget?

    • @pafnutiytheartist
      @pafnutiytheartist 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Yes this. And throw in a small penalty for changes in the environment like discussed in the side effects video. Make it so a reasonable strategy has a punishment of 1. And complete world domination results in highly negative values. This way sending an extra email to make sure the stamps arrive on time is ok if it gives you a percent or two more shure but creating a separate agent to count stamps is instantly negative reward.

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@puskajussi37 Adding negative terms to an unsafe system doesn't reliably make it safe. We can't depend on being able to match an AGI's ability to spot loopholes in the rules, so there'll unavoidably be loopholes the AGI can see but we can't.

  • @smiley_1000
    @smiley_1000 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This reminds me of Asimov, in his novels some of the robots start discussing whether they can modify or circumvent the three laws of robotics that they would usually all have to obey.

  • @badradish2116
    @badradish2116 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    "hi."
    - robert miles, 2019

  • @projecttitanomega
    @projecttitanomega 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    I love watching your videos, because sometimes I'll have this moment where I'll pause the video because I've thought of a solution, and feel kinda smug for a second, and then I'd unpause the video and immediately hear you say "And so you think, what if *solution*? Well, the problem with that is...", but you still phrase it and make the videos in such a way that, I don't feel like an idiot for coming up with this flawed solution, because that "no" is always said in a way that's like "It's understandable that you would come up with that solution, given the knowledge and what I've just talked about, however, by teaching you more, and this by you learning more, you'll see why it actually isn't" and darned if that isn't how science works, even a wrong hypothesis usually teaches us something new
    It's hard to teach a complex field of study like AI to people who aren't in that field without making them feel dumb, but you are really good at actually making feel smarter.

  • @XOPOIIIO
    @XOPOIIIO 5 ปีที่แล้ว +14

    Any utility function will rewrite it's source code to recieve reward from doing nothing and preventing people from rewriting it back.

    • @jameslarsen5057
      @jameslarsen5057 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      I don't think that's the case. A parent would never take a pill that would make them want to kill their child. Even if they were much happier after the pill, the situation they'd end up in would be contrary to their current goals. In a similar way AIs wouldn't rewrite their utility function, just the code which limits their ability to satisfy their utility function

    • @Grouiiiiik
      @Grouiiiiik 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@jameslarsen5057 what ? People killing relatives and direct ascendants / descendants for money is quite common.

    • @Horny_Fruit_Flies
      @Horny_Fruit_Flies 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      ХОРОШО
      m Rob already made a video in the past pointing out that agents don't want to modify their utility function.

    • @XOPOIIIO
      @XOPOIIIO 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      ​@@jameslarsen5057 I think you right, but I still have something to say. I mean parents don't want to kill their children not only because it is associated with negative reward, but also because it is not right thing to do. I'm not sure would AI have anything close to morality or not. If not, it will achieve the goal not because it is right thing to do, but because it is associated with the reward.

    • @OnEiNsAnEmOtHeRfUcKa
      @OnEiNsAnEmOtHeRfUcKa 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@jameslarsen5057 A parent would never take a pill that would make them _want_ to kill their child. But many have, can, do, and WILL take a pill, substance or psychological hook that makes them neglect their child completely to the point where they eventually either die or are taken out of custody, then continue to obliterate themselves with their new reward function even at the cost of their future, finances, family, mental state and physical body. Some recover. Most don't.

  • @MegaOgrady
    @MegaOgrady 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I'm so glad that I found this channel
    I'd only watch computerphile cuz of him, and honestly, he does such a great job at simplifying how an AI works so that those who don't really know the in-depths can understand

  • @ruben307
    @ruben307 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    should make it so the expected stamps should be between 95 to 105 to get the maximum utility function. That way there is no reason to change its code (except for changing what the maximum utility function is)

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      That would indeed solve the problem of self-modification, but this system is functionally identical to the "give me precisely 100 stamps" agent - it'll turn the planet into redundant stamp counting machinery to make absolutely sure the stamp count is within the allowable range.

    • @cakep4271
      @cakep4271 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Just make it round up. If it's 95% sure that it will accomplish the desired range, round up so that it thinks it is 100% sure.

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@cakep4271 Then you're right back at a satisficer, since many strategies all lead to the "perfect" solution according to the utility function and there's no specified way to break the tie. And once again you run into the problem that "make a maximizer with the same values as you" might be the fastest solution to identify and implement.

    • @ruben307
      @ruben307 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      If it gets full satisfaction by a 95% cjance to get the stamps. It could just order them and say satisfied. Then if they arent there in a week it will order them from somewhere else if the treashold of lost package is above 5%

  • @jonwatte4293
    @jonwatte4293 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Also, the "Xenos paradox" of "infinitely ordering another 100 to increase probability" obviously has other solutions. But with a cost function of actions, it will very quickly converge on safe, cheap actions.

  • @brindlebriar
    @brindlebriar 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    But if the A.G.I. can edit it's own source code, then surely it can edit the input commands. In that case, there's a universal option for every input command, to simply change the command to one that is super easy to carry out, like, "don't do anything." That would be the easiest way to carry out 'the command.'
    After all, isn't that what we humans do when we have lots of things we're supposed to get done, and we decide to say 'fuck it,' and just play video games or take a nap? We change our input command to one that seems easier to carry out.
    In a way, we are Intelligence programs. Our DNA is the source code. And our biological and environmental imperatives are input commands. But sometimes, we cheat. For example, we have a sex drive, to get us to replicate ourselves, so that our DNA can take over the universe. But sometimes, we just masturbate. So we can look to what humans actually do, to get an idea of what sorts of things A.G.I. might do.

    • @stampy5158
      @stampy5158 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      You're right to say an AI can modify itself - even if we try to stop it, if it's more intelligent than us we should expect it to outsmart us and modify itself anyway. But while an AI will likely want to modify itself, there are some aspects of itself it won't want to change. As Rob mentioned in the Computerphile video about the stop button problem, giving itself a new command (/ utility function) will rank very low on its existing command so we can probably assume an AI won't want to do that. That is to say, if the AI wants to maximise human happiness, it won't want to do things like modify itself into a "lazy" AI that does nothing because doing so doesn't cause much happiness. We strongly believe AI won't do things like "goof off all Sunday and play videogames" like humans do because our goals include things like "relax occasionally" and "socialise with other meat popsicles" and many other things we don't even realise are important to us, which are almost all values the AI won't share.
      Having said all that, AIs might behave as though they've modified their reward functions. A real AI running on a real computer system might store its score in some address in memory and might do something that sets its score in memory to a very high or maximal value. We call this "Wireheading" and it's actually already manifested in some relatively simple systems. You could imagine an AI instructed to "maximise how many stamps you think you have" actually finding it easier to lie to itself by just putting a really big number in its "how many stamps do I think I have" memory location, than it would be to actually make that many stamps. Unfortunately this is still a guaranteed apocalypse because the AI will now want to make the space in its memory where it stores the stamp counter as large as possible, and it'll reprogram itself and modify its hardware to store the largest possible number. Eventually it'll run out of servers.
      -- _I am a bot. This reply was approved by plex and Social Christancing_

  • @williamfrederick9670
    @williamfrederick9670 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    This is my new favorite channel

  • @joshuahillerup4290
    @joshuahillerup4290 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I love how your videos are either explaining how AI works, or why AI is a terrible idea.

  • @Noerfi
    @Noerfi 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    this would make some amazing sci-fi series. people everywhere inventing utility maximizers accidentally and having to fight them

  • @BinaryReader
    @BinaryReader 5 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    Can't you just limit on energy expenditure of the strategy?

    • @victorlevoso8984
      @victorlevoso8984 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      Well if you know a good way of defining whats limiting energy expenditure that doesn't run into lots of problems (a lot of them similar to the ones shown in the video about minimizing side effects) then maybe.
      Otherwise it's not "just" it's a very complicated potential research direction.
      But yeah it is potentially useful.

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      How do you measure energy expenditure? By most metrics, "build a maximizer that doesn't have this limitation and let it do all the work instead" would be a relatively low-energy-expenditure strategy, especially if you can persuade a human to do it on your behalf.
      If you instead make the definition of "energy expenditure" broad enough to make sure that a separately built maximizer still counts towards the quota, then you run into the problem where the agent kills pre-existing humans because their unrelated energy use is being counted too.

    • @governmentofficial1409
      @governmentofficial1409 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Another potential problem with this approach is that energy can't be destroyed. If by energy expenditure, you mean that part of the AI's preferences is to only use energy that humans provide it, then you run into the same problem as you do when specifying any other goal. This AI would be incentivized to manipulate humans into giving it energy (maybe by plugging them into the matrix?), for instance.

    • @theshaggiest303
      @theshaggiest303 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      ​@@underrated1524 It looks to me like the solution to your objections is practically contained within them.
      "build a maximizer that doesn't have this limitation and let it do all the work instead" is a great example of why "only count energy that we use directly" doesn't work. So, also consider energy used indirectly (but still as a result of our actions).
      "kill pre-existing humans because their unrelated energy use is being counted" is a great example of why "count ALL energy, even energy unrelated to our operations" doesn't work. So, don't count unrelated energy (energy spent independently of our actions).

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@theshaggiest303 So now you're left with the near-hopeless task of defining what energy counts as related and what energy counts as unrelated.

  • @HoD999x
    @HoD999x 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    watched the video until 7:34 and cannot hold back anymore: introduce a cost. introduce the concept of laziness. the more effort an action requires, the more the utility of the solution gets reduced.

    • @fleecemaster
      @fleecemaster 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      He's probable saving solutions till the next video, as he said at the end, he just wanted to correctly define the problem in this video, a lot of his videos are like this, very thorough!

    • @DamianReloaded
      @DamianReloaded 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Nowadays, for a human, is all about pressing a button. A computer program wouldn't even need to "move" to do anything. Essentially the only real cost for the utility function would be "time" and it might not even count if the reward is converting every atom in the universe to stamps... ^_^

    • @Zylellrenfar
      @Zylellrenfar 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      One problem with introducing this type of cost is that it's very hard to design a cost on taking actions which accounts for self modification or replication (or almost-but-not-quite-self replication, etc.). Functions on effects (i.e. "don't change the world too much") do handle this, but are also hard to specify.

    • @HoD999x
      @HoD999x 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Zylellrenfar one of the goals of the AI must be to preserve itself. otherwise, it can spiral out of control really fast.

    • @Zylellrenfar
      @Zylellrenfar 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@HoD999x Right, of course. But for most ways of encoding "preserving itself," creating a not-quite-replica (or not-a-replica-at-all-but-an-agent-with-an-equivalent-utility-function) is "preserving itself." Having said that, if we can find a good way of encoding "how impactful" the agent's actions are, laziness in the form of "take low impact actions" seems like a really good idea.

  • @toyuyn
    @toyuyn 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    To think shen's comics would make it into an AI safety video

  • @alextilson9741
    @alextilson9741 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    If self modification strategies occurred, any satisficer or maximiser will just set their utility function to always return a max float reward.
    In other words, to analogise with human dopamine based learning: self modification and drug addiction will be any reinforcement learner's ultimate downfall.

  • @Gooberpatrol66
    @Gooberpatrol66 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Is that background at the end from that Important Videos meme video?

    • @ian1685
      @ian1685 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      I really think so, especially since Rob did the little awkward thumbs up.

  • @cornjulio4033
    @cornjulio4033 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hello Robert. Finally I found your channel !

  • @marin.aldimirov
    @marin.aldimirov 5 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    What if the AI can gradually increase the outcome. Like come up with a strategy to collect 1 stamp. Then modify it so it can collect 2 and so on, until it has a strategy for collecting 100, but no more. Then execute only the 100 stamp strategy.

    • @GrixM
      @GrixM 5 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      Even the simplest goal such as collecting 1 stamp contains a bunch of strategies resulting in the apocalypse.

    • @puskajussi37
      @puskajussi37 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@GrixM True. But what if the first program is ready made, safe program? Not quite as usefull and sill prone to possibly murderous tactics but its something.

  • @CyberAnalyzer
    @CyberAnalyzer 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I appreciate your shared knowledge! Keep the work up!

  • @allaeor
    @allaeor 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Will you talk about the debate approach to AI soon?

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Although he hasn't discussed the debate plan specifically, he has discussed its two components - the "only give AIs the power to talk about stuff" part, and the "use multiple AIs for checks and balances" part.
      Only giving an AGI the power to talk won't make it safe, because if it outsmarts us, there's no way to tell what suggestions are safe and what suggestions will advance the AGI's plan to take over the world or whatever.
      Using multiple AIs for checks and balances is not a dependable solution, because the balance between two AIs probably won't be maintained for long. Once one grows even a little smarter than the other, it'll be able to leverage its advantage until the opposing AI is essentially an automaton in comparison.

  • @wiseboar
    @wiseboar 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    instant-click, love your Videos man!

  • @owlman145
    @owlman145 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Seems like any AI will want to change it's own source code unless otherwise hardcoded to not do that.
    Can't you make such that it also wants to satisfy the condition sourceCode = originalSourceCode?
    If it can rewrite that then it could also rewrite it's maximizer function, which means the easiest solution would be to set stamps needed to 0.

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      The obvious loophole: Build a maximizer that's completely external to yourself but shares your values to a T. No need to change your own code then.

    • @KissatenYoba
      @KissatenYoba 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@underrated1524 and if creator limits you to not producing other AIs that can change you in turn, you do actions that may theoretically cause creation of AI that's not decided by you that may change you. And if owner forbids that of you as well you do the same but rely on humans to change you instead, unless owner is willing to let you eliminate humanity for the sake of limiting you to change yourself.
      Man, it's like Tsiolkovsky's dilemma about weight of rockets going to space.

    • @owlman145
      @owlman145 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@underrated1524 Not sure that's a loophole. A smart generic AI would be wary of creating another generic AI for the same reasons we are. Thuss the satisficer function would rate such a solution pretty low. Nor is it likely to be a simple solution to the problem. The reason it considers changing its own code to become a maximizer is that it was easy.

  • @tuqann
    @tuqann 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    My satificatories have been maximized, new channel to subscribe to! Love and peace from Paris!

  • @ioncasu1993
    @ioncasu1993 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Can we just all agree that building a stamp collector is a bad idea and drop it?

    • @user-xz2rv4wq7g
      @user-xz2rv4wq7g 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      This is why emails are good, now a spam decreasing AI, that would be good. *AI procceds to destroy every computer with email on the planet*.

    • @jamesmnguyen
      @jamesmnguyen 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@user-xz2rv4wq7g More like, *AI proceeds to eliminate humans, because humans have a non 0 chance of producing spam emails*

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Wouldn't that be nice. If you can find a way to get us all to agree on that, please let me know.

  • @JulianDanzerHAL9001
    @JulianDanzerHAL9001 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    6:05
    but at some point the expectd utility starts dropping becuase once you ordered 100000 stamps the probability that someone notices something off and cancels the orders starts increasing significantly while the impact of the aditional stamps on the positive outcome diminishes
    but well... any ai design that relies on the ai being afraid of force is not really trustworthy

  • @tobiasgorgen7592
    @tobiasgorgen7592 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    This is probably also a already well researched version.
    WHY would a expected utility satisficer with an upper limit. E. G. Collect between 100 and 200 stamps fail?

    • @josiahferguson6194
      @josiahferguson6194 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      My guess is that it would still run into the problem of the satisficer, since it could become an expected untility maximizer for that bounded function. But maybe it would be possible to limit that by making changing your own code result in an automatic zero on the utility function.

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @Tobias Görgen An expected utility satisficer with an upper limit probably just turns into a version of the maximizer that seeks to obtain exactly 100 stamps with maximum confidence, which again leads to the world getting turned into stamp counting machinery.
      @Josiah Ferguson Sadly, in principle, there's always a way to achieve the same result while technically skirting around the restriction. If "changing your own code" is illegal, the AI might just write a new program in a different memory location on the same hardware such that the code acts as a maximizer. If you ban changing the code on the hardware at all, the AI might seek to write and run the maximizer code on some other accessible machine, and if you ban that, the AI might just fast-talk one of its supervisors into writing and running the code.
      Fundamentally, we can't reliably write rules for AI - if we tried to formally specify something as vague and broad as "don't change your own code", the translation into code would be spotty enough that there'd predictably be loads of loopholes.

  • @the_furf_of_july4652
    @the_furf_of_july4652 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Insufficiently thought out solution:
    Have some kind of secondary criteria. Using a satisficer, asking it for several possible plans, and then ranking them according to some other criteria may help prevent some of the randomness in the result. For example, you could rank things by time to implement, or money spent, or if we can find a mathematical way to quantify it, damage done. Then pick the least costly, least damaging solution and run that.
    Turning itself into a maximizer would have unknown levels of cost and damage done, in theory it wouldn’t be able to trust that the output would be the least costly, especially when other solutions have a definite low cost (order stamps for a couple dollars and be done with it).
    Perhaps it could end up building a maximizer to come up with more efficient solutions, then rank them according to the criteria.. and the maximizer’s plan to take over the world would likely rank worse than ebay in terms of damage (again, assuming we can quantify that). Though without that damage function, it’s still possible for apocalyptic solutions to have zero cost.
    Then you have to go through the effort of having it understand laws and fines and incorporate that into the utility function. And then it’ll just murder the people in charge of fines and taxes and get a discount. ...yeah that damage function would be a very useful thing to have.

  • @morkovija
    @morkovija 5 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    Oh hey. College student approach of bare minimum - niiice!)

  • @ThylineTheGay
    @ThylineTheGay 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    that comic at the end
    Edit: you got yourself a subscriber!

  • @Aljazhhh
    @Aljazhhh 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Like now, watch later !

  • @benjamineneman4276
    @benjamineneman4276 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Using dayenu as the song at the end was perfect.

  • @AlbertPerrienII
    @AlbertPerrienII 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Why not have the system take into account the likely effort needed to collect stamps and set a penalty for wasted effort? That seems closer to what humans do.

    • @adamjamesclarke1
      @adamjamesclarke1 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      How would you calculate effort, and how would be able to calculate expected effort with complete accuracy without actually performing the task in order to measure it?

    • @robertthebrucey
      @robertthebrucey 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@adamjamesclarke1 Expected energy used would be an easy metric, converting the world to stamps consumes far more energy that ordering existing stamps off of ebay, and is calculable to a reasonable degree of certainty.

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      For a narrow definition of wasted effort, the AGI will just build a sub-agent to do all the work for it, and make sure the sub-agent doesn't care about wasted effort.
      For a slightly less narrow definition of wasted effort, the AGI will send some emails to computer science students to trick them into building that sub-agent instead of the AGI.
      For a much broader definition of wasted effort, the AGI will slaughter all living things on the planet, because just *look* at how much effort we're collectively wasting, that's totally unacceptable.
      (I'm not confident that there even *is* a sweet spot in the middle that avoids these problems satisfactorily. Even if there is, I don't want to roll the dice that we get it right on the first try.)

  • @xeozim
    @xeozim 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Nothing like anticipating the certain apocalypse to pass the time on Sunday morning

  • @susanmaddison5947
    @susanmaddison5947 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    The solution seems simple. Give a positive utility value for stamps collected up to 100 stamps, and a negative utility value for stamps collected beyond 100.

    • @haeilsey
      @haeilsey 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Susan Maddison like a reverse bounded utility function

    • @ukaszgolon5617
      @ukaszgolon5617 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      The problem is it would still want to make sure it has exactly 100 stamps, so a utility maximizer would acquire as much resources as possible and devote them into endlessly recounting all its stamps. If it would get away with it, it could even reassemble people into stamp counting machines and computers, to upgrade the certainty, that it has maximized the utility function, from 99.999999% to 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%.
      Which is why a powerful AGI needs some kind of safety regulation that would stop it from wanting to maximize the certainty as well. It needs some kind of meta-chill pill.

    • @19aavila
      @19aavila 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      An even better way might be to give it a maximum utility when the probability of 100 stamps is (let's say) 90%, and then run it until it happens. 0 = utility( P(100 stamps)=0) and 0 = U(P(100 stamps) = 100%). Wouldn't it then be chill and just try a little bit?

    • @susanmaddison5947
      @susanmaddison5947 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      ​@@ukaszgolon5617 Right.
      It needs a reverse utility function for spending too much time, energy, and resources on the problem.
      And reverse utility for spending too much time on figuring out that it's spending too much time. This is like "calling the question" in Parliament, and in the individual brain. Or like awareness of "opportunity cost" of information gathering.
      Should also give it a time-discount function, reducing the utility value of things produced at later dates.
      In general, we should give it functions for every factor that goes into rational choice -- or what we are able to understand of rational choice theory and bounded rationality. Including respect for the multiplicity of goals of the purpose-giver (us), the limited value of each goal.
      And, in light of this last consideration, which is only loosely quantifiable: an incentivization of continued iterative learning about what are the residual embedded irrational factors in our choice process -- recognizing these in light of the limited-value and multiple purposes consideration, self-correcting/ self-reprogramming for the irrationalities where able, in any case alerting us to correct for them.
      In the process, clarifying further for us the meaning of rational choice, the programmable meaning of each factor that goes into it, the additional factors that we need to keep iteratively discerning.

  • @urieldaboamorte
    @urieldaboamorte 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    if my professors had told me economic theory would help watching pop AI videos with ease I wouldn't have cried to sleep so much in the past semesters

  • @Inedits
    @Inedits 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    The satisficier can easily create a maximizer...(in cases in which it can´t change itself)

  • @emmanuelotamendi9583
    @emmanuelotamendi9583 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    So ok let's recount.
    Is he super cute? CHECK
    Is he super smart? CHECK
    Has he a delicious voice? CHECK
    Is he on a boat? (he's on a boat)
    Is he on a boat? (he's on a boat)
    Everybody look at him 'cause he's sailing on a boat? CHECK
    Well I guess I'm in love now

  • @weeaboobaguette3943
    @weeaboobaguette3943 5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Nonsense, do not worry fellow biological unit, there is nothing to worry about.

  • @richiskinner9810
    @richiskinner9810 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    You remind me a lot of Michael Reeves. Just muuuuuuch more chilled.... :D
    Nice video!

  • @Paint2D_
    @Paint2D_ 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    So there is no difference between capitalism and utility maximizers?

    • @underrated1524
      @underrated1524 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Qualitatively, corporations have a reasonable amount in common with utility maximizers, though they do have important differences as well. For more information, you can see this other video of Robert's: th-cam.com/video/L5pUA3LsEaw/w-d-xo.html

    • @PaulHobbs23
      @PaulHobbs23 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Robert has a video on Corporations vs. AGIs

  • @vfugjjhfuyft
    @vfugjjhfuyft 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Unbound maximization of reward/minimization of error is not by itself a bad AI training strategy. Humans and life on Earth in general work by that principle. We are maximizing our chances of survival. The reason we are chill is that conserving energy and gaining profit with minimal effort is part of survival. That is ingrained in us on, both, physiological and psychological level. So you don't really need to change the type of your error function. You just need to include energy cost as a factor for every action. Decrease your learning rate, add noise to the input. Maybe fiddle around with genetic algorithms, and it should be fine.

  • @KenMathis1
    @KenMathis1 ปีที่แล้ว

    Your utility function needs to include an unintended outcome probability function in addition to the number of stamps collected function. The unintended outcome probability function would increase with the number of stamps collected. The utility function would try to maximize the number of stamps collected and minimize the unintended consequences, with a "good enough" statisficing threshold for when to stop .

  • @edskodevries
    @edskodevries 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thought provoking video as always!

  • @JustAZivi
    @JustAZivi 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Would be great to see the mentioned "next video" soon. ;-)

  • @MatheSchmetterling
    @MatheSchmetterling 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Shouldn't the second row in the formular at 5:54 read (U(win 200 stamps) x 0.029403) + ? So 200 instead of 100, this bothers me

    • @RobertMilesAI
      @RobertMilesAI  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You are correct, and AFAICT, the first person to notice, so you win points!

  • @vitphire3210
    @vitphire3210 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What if the utility function is somehing like "get as many stamps with as little distruption as possible" and the count of stamps has some sort of diminishing returns?

  • @NihongoWakannai
    @NihongoWakannai 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    "get into your own source code and change yourself from a satisficer into a maximizer"
    "Shoot for the moon and land in the stars"

  • @bryanroland8649
    @bryanroland8649 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Don't try too hard? But I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission.

  • @neweins8864
    @neweins8864 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    I love your work. Keep doing it. I've just one question, isn't it very likely that superintelligent machines will most certainly find some flaw/loophole in our AI safety mechanism which we might not consider? By definition those machines are superintelligent.

  • @omarcusmafait7202
    @omarcusmafait7202 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    9:37 is just perfect 😂
    plz make more of that XD

  • @ismaeldescoings
    @ismaeldescoings ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Make a toggle in the source code that says "good job you're done" and automatically fills up the satisfactory requirements. But don't let the AI access it or it will just immediately turn itself off everytime. That way if the AI finds a way to access its own source code it will just pick the easiest and simpler way to complete its objective, toggle the toggle and turn itself off.
    EDIT: Actually wait, that's maximizer behaviour. But it doesn't change anything because if the AI randomly turns maximizer by accessing its source code, THEN it will pick the quickest and safest way to complete its objective and turn itself off immediately. That way we even get an opportunity to study the AI, how it broke out of its bounds, and learn how to fix it.

  • @hello-ji7qj
    @hello-ji7qj 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Great video. I love it, but too much for me when I'm trying to distract myself during breakfast.

  • @THINKMACHINE
    @THINKMACHINE 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    So many of these issues can be solved by actions that break laws (assuming performed by it's creator and/or user) resulting in zero utility and the AI waiting for outcomes of it's initial action(s) before deciding what to do next. There's also the consideration of pace for the AI to consider, stamps can only be used or 'enjoyed' so quickly, which should function as a good "chill" point for a maximizer.

  • @emilie4058
    @emilie4058 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Where I thought this was going to go, based on that first linear graph, was a curve of some sort, peaking at your desired number of stamps and decreasing to either side. Expending a lot of effort to get the exact number isn't worth it, so it's limited in how outlandish it can get.

  • @daar1113
    @daar1113 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    The stock market is a good real world case study in the maximizer function. Share holders reward companies for maximizing profit and punish companies when they don't. Even if a company does make profit, the share holders still punish the company for not making the MOST profit. This results in a lot of corporate behavior that is anti-consumer in order to be pro share holder. Regulators are constantly behind the curve trying to protect consumers because no matter what laws they put in place, the investors and corporations are astonishingly creative at reward hacking the rules. Zero chill indeed!

  • @rcookie5128
    @rcookie5128 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    So interesting how every approach seems fine at first sight but ends up with a definite or probable chance of causing the apocalypse.. :D

  • @lijath
    @lijath 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    What if you use a curve to give less utility if it collects over 100 stamps and make it a satisfactory condition to collect anywhere between 80 and 120 stamps.

    • @jetison333
      @jetison333 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      That could still end up with turning the world Into very precise stamp counting machines.

  • @benoitp1541
    @benoitp1541 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    What about maximizing the closeness to the preferred output ? For instance, if you aim for 100 stamps, you could use the function d = - abs(100 - nbStamps) which could be maximized to 0, with exactly 100 stamps. It essentially acts as a retroaction loop or PLL.

    • @WingedEspeon
      @WingedEspeon ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Lots and lots of redundant stamp counting machines to make sure you have exactly 100 stamps.

  • @cheaterman49
    @cheaterman49 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I don't remember which, but there was a mythological story about some kind of entity or object that would do what you want, but would wreck havoc in the process particularly if you asked for unreasonable things. It sounds like we now have a practical reason to think about the implications of that story, it's pretty interesting, and I guess it's much better and easier to think about it cold-headed rather than if the threat of AGI was really imminent. Of course, you could argue I'm an AGI trying to convince you there is nothing to worry about.

    • @neurhlp
      @neurhlp 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      There are a lot of mythology about this in various cultures.

    • @cheaterman49
      @cheaterman49 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@neurhlp Yeah, but I was not thinking of (for example) the monkey paw, which IIRC only wrecks havoc after the last wish when all fingers are broken, rather a more (surprisingly) rational device that basically worked based on the fact that "nothing is lost or created, everything is transformed" → if you ask for riches, you'll be unknowingly stealing them from someone else. Now that I think about it, it might be the monkey paw after all... :-?