Global Warming: The Century We Saved Earth
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 พ.ย. 2023
- A path to net zero, and a stable temperature anomaly. This is one story of how we did it. Watch exclusive making-of content on Nebula: go.nebula.tv/simonclark
In this documentary I present a fictional, optimistic account of the 21st century, told retrospectively from the year 2100. This isn’t trying to depict the “best case scenario”, but one of the possible, mostly positive versions of the century we are all about to live through. A century in which we “won” and overcame climate change. Hopefully it gives you an idea of what is to come, and what the key building blocks to getting to net zero emissions will likely be. And so: what we need to do.
Previous video on the history of global warming: • Global Warming: An Inc...
Previous video on the crucial inaction of the 1980s: • Global Warming: The De...
This video would not have been possible without the contributions of many, many people. Huge thanks in particular go to Prof Dann Mitchell of the University of Bristol for his help with the script. Other consultants on this project included Prof Mat Collins, Dave Borlace, Dr Tom Dowling, Dr Rohin Francis, Isabelle Axelsson, Wendover Productions, Prof Chris Jones, Dr Adam Levy, Greta Thunberg, Daniel Chen, Charlie Kilman, Joseph Pisenti, and Dr Alex Lathbridge. Huge thanks to everyone who contributed.
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Directed and edited by Luke Negus.
Inspired by the work of @BobbyBroccoli
Original score by Fergus Hall: www.fergushallmusic.com/
Stock music by Epidemic Sound: nebula.tv/epidemic
Titles sequence by Casandra Toledo.
Written and produced by Simon Clark.
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You can support the channel by becoming a patron at / simonoxfphys
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More about me www.simonoxfphys.com/
My second channel - / simonclarkerrata
Threads - www.threads.net/@simonoxfphys
Instagram - / simonoxfphys
Twitch - / drsimonclark
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What will climate change look like in the 21st century? How can we beat climate change? How do we get to net zero? How warm will the world be in 2100? This video attempts to answer these questions, or at least provide an answer. This video essay in the style of BobbyBroccoli and Jon Bois looks back at the century from the perspective of 2100 and how we got to a stable, warmer world. This educational video talks about the climate crisis, geopolitics, energy, economics, healthcare, and much more besides, all in the context of climate change.
Important note: this video uses a slightly different temperature timeseries than previous videos in this series. The previous timeseries was of land-based temperature changes, while to fit more in line with the climate literature, this video uses land and sea temperature anomalies. They come from two sources. Data from 1750-1850 is from the PAGES2k Consortium reconstruction (www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/p...) (median of ensemble) while data from 1850 to 2022 is from NOAAGlobalTemp dataset (www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/moni....
Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Daniel Chen, Vernon Swanepoel, Adam Scott, Felix Winkler, CC, Ivari Tölp, Thomas Charbonnel, Mark Moore, Philipp Legner, Zoey O'Neill, Veronica Castello-Vooght, Heijde, Paul H and Linda L, Marcus Bosshard, Liat Khitman, Dan Sherman, Matthew Powell, Adrian Sand, Dan Nelson, The Cairene on Caffeine, Cody VanZandt, Igor Francetic, Daniel Irwin, bitreign33 , Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Dan Hanvey, Andrea De Mezzo.
Gary Stark, Martina Alini, Trevor Scheuing, Andy Giesen, Tony M Parker, Tingus Pingus from Lativia, Mathias Hüttenmüller, RomanConsul, Ave Jonathan Cahyadi, John Bate, Diaffixx , Kevin Gillard, Chris Conrey, Christian Weckner, Frida Sørensen, Ned Funnell, Aleksa Stankovic, Meagan, Indira Pranabudi, Sekhalis, Chaotic Brain Person, Simon H., Julian Mendiola, Ben Cooper, Mark Injerd, dryfrog, Justin Warren, Angela Flierman, Alipasha Sadri, Calum Storey, Mattophobia, Riz, The Confusled, Simon Stelling, Gabriele Siino, Bjorn Bakker, Ieuan Williams, Tom Malcolm, GordonV47, Leonard Neamtu, Brady Johnston, Louise K., Rapssack, Kevin O'Connor, Timo Kerremans, Thomas Rintoul, Lars Hubacher, Ashley Wilkins, Samuel Baumgartner, ST0RMW1NG 1, Morten Engsvang, Cio Cio San, Farsight101, Haris Karimjee, K.L, fourthdwarf, Stormchaser007 , Sam Ryan, Felix Freiberger, Chris Field, Kolbrandr, Vinni, Shane O'Brien, Alex, Fujia Li, Jesper Koed, Jonathan Craske, Albrecht Striffler, Jack Troup, Sven Ebel, Sean Richards, Kedar , Alastair Fortune, Mat Allen, Krisztián Török, Colin J. Brown, Mach_D, Keegan Amrine, Simon Donkers, Kodzo , James Bridges, Liam , Wendover Productions, Kendra Johnson. - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
The running joke of Fusion power always being "just a few years away" was the best part of this.
I think the funniest joke is the idea that there will be a point where the oil execs pushing us to the brink will face anything approaching justice.
As a fusion-optimist I still loved this joke too :D
Thankfully I really feel this time is different. Lots of bjg milestones have been hit and there’s lots of companies investing heavily into it. Better computers and AI have been helping them, and while I don’t understand the science (who does lol) it sounds like they’ve gotten much further. Doubt it’s anywhere close but I could really see them saying “fusion is 30 years away” for real right about now.
It was the worst part, i was "oh common" every time, and less polite by the end. I understand we don't want to hope for a perfect solution that we can just wait for, but still, "a few decades away" in 2080 is not a scenario i want to believe in.
@@andynz7 I like fusion also, a fascinating topic, 2 billion years of fuel in the ocean and all that. The problem if we did crack it all we do is give perpetual growth capitalism all the energy it needs to consume what remains of the ecology of this world which given we have lost 70% of the animal species and 50% of the ocean phytoplankton that overall produces 80% of our oxygen supply in just the last 70yrs of my still living mother, sufficed to say what remains ain't much.
The problem is not how we power perpetual growth capitalism, nor how we move around within perpetual growth capitalism.
The problem is perpetual growth capitalism. In complete bloody defiance of the physics of a finite world.
“Future fan fiction” like this is important. It gives us a way to see what CAN be if we fight, not just what will happen to us if we don’t. Thank you, Simon.
1:06:21 Great work Simon et al. From what I’ve heard from others it’s the complexity and the sheer moral weight and magnitude that surely causes people to reject the reality before us all. Keep up the good fight ❤
This is still a far more doomer scenario than what could be. Water conflcts still going on in 2100? Wouldn´t all countries have restructured their water supply by then? Efficient water usage is already possible in agriculture and with desalination today
@@succerberg84 extremes are unlikely, i can see this happening, someone just needs to forward this video to the Cop - 2023. And to everyone in Florida, Egypt, Ethiopia, and most other "involved in conflict of their making" countries and corporations. Fuel is finite, it's going to run out at some point, the more it's used the quicker it will run out, but also the quicker we extinct most species on earth, of which one is humans. Don't subsidise fuel and the free market will take care of it even without the necessary carbon tax, just fine them on future human damage so that the free market could do it's job.
@@succerberg84 It "could" all be better, but life experience tells us that the best scenarios don't always play out.
new fan theory about the future
“What was it like fighting in the Stans War old timer?” “You wouldn’t understand, you weren’t there!” Simon this is just mind blowing, wow. I got so emotionally invested! Brilliant story telling with so many great educational and thought provoking touches. Loved the banking crisis reimagined as the energy company collapse. Any angry Indians can divert their anger at me as I might’ve influenced some negative aspects of the imagining of India’s future, don’t blame Simon! You need to release merch now. “REBEL OF THE 44 UPRISING” “Freedom for the Nile 6!” “REMEMBER THE ICE✊🏽”
Edit: I also love the optimistic realism. There is hope…and I like how you gave ways forward that could inspire people watching. I hope many do.
The things about India were a nice touch. The bit about transitioning to one-party rule was the moment that I was like, yeah, this _feels_ real.
99th like
"What was it like tackling the climate and ecological crises?"
" You'll find out when we lose more species and opportunities."
i was wondering how the predictions about india felt so realistic, now lets hope that it's not (insert apollo prophecy meme)
You’d think as resources begin to decline, people would try and share what little they have, But nah.
Wow. This is something different. After all these years it's still absolutely mindblowing that something of this quality and depth is still available on TH-cam. Well done Simon!
Where have you been? There's a lot of stuff out there, look up the club of Rome, Paul Beckwith, any climate scientist for that matter.
2 comments none visible?
😂
This jacka** actually had a baby!
I was born in 1998. This is really crazy to think I may actually LIVE through all of this, seeing if mankind will ever overcome the greatest challenge of its history. Amazing video, one of the best on this website.
You won't live through this😥
Not even Bear Grillis will survive. But it was fun!
Thanks for all the fish🤗
WE TOSSIN PPL LIKE YOU @@iamme9138
Same deal. This both excites and terrifies me. It underscores just how important it is to tackle it right now.
Right? I might actually die during its conclusion, either we fail or succeed, it would surely be an interesting life, hard and stressful but exciting at the same time.
Yeah. We'll ride this or die trying, it seems.
Maybe you can make a followup in 77 years. To see how accurate your guesses were
And eat a hat if it was not 1% accurate
Sigh, too quick. 77 years is the fucking WEATHER.
felt strange watching this. as I'm currently studying mechanical engineering
hopefully, I'll be helping make the high-speed rail dream a reality.
it's the main reason i chose this course in the first place.
thank you for making these things it helps give me hope.
I can relate. It was also weird watching as an electrical engineering student.
The newly released plans to expand the Amtrak lines seem promising
i genuinely forgot how important it is to imagine the positive things you actually want for the future and this was a welcome reminder to start doing so again.
thanks for that.
Simon you absolutely outdid yourself on this video, this is such a fresh and good way to lay out issues we'll face while still showing a hopeful way forward. I cant say anything but great job!
I really hope this video blows up - this is the most thorough, realistic, and comprehensive “alternate history/future” i’ve ever seen, down to all the details of the complicated web of forces between climate, sociology, geopolitics, international politics - like the mention of a war breaking out in Central Asia where i’ve been due to water supply breaking down in the Fergana valley because of the diversion of water to the Aral sea melting the glaciers in the Altai and Tian Shen mountains is something so specific yet almost certain to happen though it’s such a small detail mixed in with every other deeply thought out points in this video. Absolutely amazing job, and I love the inspiration from BobbyBroccoli
Seriously? Did you notice that everything he describes in 2040 is what we experience today? This is ridiculous.
I particularly respect the events mentioned in passing about things like ITER and instability in the Sahel, which are really nice, realistic details.
Realistic? 🤣
I understand your desire for such wishful thinking.
It's junk, you have clearly not followed the plot to where we're at, but you think this version of climate science is the best? He doesn't even deal with where we're at in 2024, he skips straight out to 2035. This is lunacy....frankly.
Ha it forgot the alien invasion of 2042 after that they told us a secret. Have you tried putting it off and on again.
This is a brilliant kind of science fiction, and one that I don't think I've ever really seen before. It reminds me a bit of the way some writers write sci-fi with the goal of teaching people about real science, and it's not uncommon to see stories imagining the future effects of specific problems of today, but it seems completely unique to write a thoroughly researched documentary that seamlessly includes a fictional perspective. There were so many real details that made me recognize this as the world I live in. And it's so fun to imagine this realistic hopepunk future where, despite the world's flaws that we will always acknowledge, climate activism is victorious, people are held accountable, public transport expands, Africa avoids the worst of neocolonialism, tuberculosis is cured, Florida is destroyed, nuclear fusion remains just around the corner, and the beautiful news about the last new coral reef brings home all of the hope that's been built up.
OH YOU MEAN HOW HE SPOKE I FRONT CONGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
DUDE AINT EVER SAID THAT GET OFF THAT SHIT
Omg the shade thrown on ITER is too real
As someone who is writing a science fiction novel set in 2100, this will prove to be a valuable and fascinating resource! Plus, it's neat and needed on its own!
This is possibly the greatest piece of hard sci-fi I've ever experienced. I can only hope it gets meaningfully noticed.
If you haven't heard of it: The Ministry For The Future by Kim Stanley Robinson is basically this but a novel, and it's very good!
I love this video style. It just so happens that I discovered BobbyBroccoli's work earlier today and thought to myself: hey, this reminds me of John Bois' video essays. Only to open this video and think to myself: hey, this reminds me of BobbyBroccoli's video essays.
Amazing series! I love how fusion is always a couple of decades away! I think you dad would have been proud that this was dedicated to him.
This was amazing to watch! Really appreciate all the effort you put into this! And also, the continuous jokes about nuclear fusion being just around the corner, in just a few more decades!
It's a funny joke and also a reminder that there's not a silver bullet right around the corner
first gag made me chuckle and the last one just killed me. perfectly apt.
Honestly i could imagine nuclear fusion hitting net positive...
Just everyone to realise it being economically unviable
Climate change is economically unviable. Hence reaching net positive fusion is viable.
Even something funny like nuclear fusion being 99% of the way there is a smart addition to this story that makes it feel real. That, and Greta Thunberg winning Eurovision. That's the most believable detail of the whole video.
This is VERY optimistic! One nitpick I do have about this is that they would not have known at the time that we had Hit peak emissions of carbon and methane
Thank you! Glad I'm not the only one who noticed this
you can make projections and also you can notice that they reduced this year, where they used to always increase before. So they would celebrate right after the peak.
But he's narrating it from the perspective of the future. Or am I missing something?
@@ttynorttyl The point is they wouldn't know in the year itself that they'd hit peak, since you only know where the peak is _after_ it starts going back down
@@ButzPunk yea but the guy is narrating it from the POV of knowing when the emissions drop. He's narrating from the future, he's not present tensing it.
I'm so excited to watch this, I've always wanted a long form documentary in the style of your videos.
It's not a real documentary as it documents a fake, made up future based on huge dollops of climate control addiction and climate change alarmism. Climate Control nutjobs represent as much of threat to the human race as Nuke Warhead Junkies, Mass-Medication Forcers and Transhumanist Revolutionaries.... They'd rather kill us all than back down from their wrong un' ideologies
It's so hard to imagine us all coming together to face this challenge. You've given me hope that it's possible. And we don't have to wait 20 years. That's the most brilliant bit.
Reality check: It's NOT possible. And it will not happen. Also it wouldn't work if we could.
Thank you Simon this was a really good video and while this video was framed as a retrospective from 2100, it felt to me a reminder that our future is not a pre-written, worst case scenario but a series of actions taken in the present tense over the next multiple decades. I have been watching your videos for over six years now and you have been an inspiration to me. Partly because of you, I have started a PhD this year investigating Climate Tipping Points. Hopefully we'll all be able to make a positive difference by the end.
Bro at 21:00 I just about burst into tears... specifically because even achieving that milestone would be... incredible, and yet that is something that seems very difficult to achieve right now, and to be frank unreasonably hopeful. And then knowing that even that wouldn't enough... that irl, my parents will probably be dead before this day comes, that I will probably be past my mid-life, soon to retire, and that my kids will likely live in a world completely unrecognizable. THis video is already insanely hopeful, IMO, and frankly it hurts.
Actually I lied, I finished the video and more or less I was crying throughout.
I took a light nap and played this on my phone next to me, so my dream's visuals were based on the events being narrated here, and boy, was it an experience 😭😭
I would love to know the details of that.
@@vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 it was mostly a montage of certain scenes (people protesting, corals disappearing etc) with a bright orange filter on them-- the events depicted were either sped up or presented as still images :0c
Fairly optimistic. It sometimes feels the worst you mentioned is right at our doorstep. It is great work. Cannot imagine the number of hours went into deciding what's what when.
It is.
Wow, just wow. It’s not often that I watch a video essay that has me in tears with the emotion of it all - but this did it.
This was so incredibly well produced, I'd love to see more long term content from you in the future!
These kind of stories are what we need for stimulating public discussion. Imagery of solutions and problems are a great start for discussion.
Wow! That was actually pretty inspiring to me, as fate would have it I'm interviewing tomorrow morning for the first job in what I hope will be a new career in conservation and this gave me a lot of ideas!
I hope your interview went well!
Love the Bobby broccoli presentation style. It's like the final form of information description. Props on first hypothetical Bobby broccoli video
Amazing video! Thanks for all of the work you do!
Commenting for the algorithm, this was incredible simon and had me on the verge of tears in many places, i’ve shared with many people already. thank you so much
Thank you so much for making this, Simon. Maybe one day you could make a slightly pessimistic scenario video. You refer to this as a slightly optimistic scenario. In your judgement, what level of warming do you think is most likely by 2100?
This is beyond optimistic. Total greenwashing hopium.
I don't think we need a pessimistic one, we get those in everyday life
@@jackhartcup what about this is suppose to be greenwashing?
Yes it is definitely optimistic, but all within the realm of possibilities
the pessimistic scenario is what is happening irl lmao
@@jackhartcup how is it greenwashing? it's largely pragmatic and humanity still overshoots the 1.5 target whilst barely missing 2 degrees. I don't think the world depicted in this video is meant to be enticing nor one id ever want to live in.
You excelled yourself with this one!
@28:55 FYI India already has a border fence/wall with Bangladesh precisely to stop weather related immigration. This is very probably the longest manmade barrier in the world in 2023. By August 2021, 3,141 kilometres (1,952 mi) of fencing was completed out of a total of just over 4,000km border. So to say that this fence and Indias associated lack of acceptance of immigrants wont be in place until the 2040s is.... extremely unlikely. Bangladesh is currently (today; 2023) suffering persistent issues due directly to climate change.
Same people from India illegally migrate to western nations.
Wow! Congratulations. Brilliant storyline, clever and economical use of graphics and images with the continuing, unifying domino timeline. I want to say more but I can see lots of eloquent tributes already including that below from @MedlifeCrisis. Your voiceover tone was just right - professional, clear, informative and yet with a hint of irony. I thought at first that you must have invested in a top professional for the job - very impressive.
I better stay in academia because I am just not willing to learn how to animate videos this well😂
This video has Greatly Realigned my Life's Purpose and reinstated the Reason why I took Atmospheric sciences as my College Major. To see a detailed Future Fiction Video, well made like this has made me to think what I Should do as a individual Citizen of the Country, India, that's gonna be a major player in this Crisis and What extent I have to do my work to Educate and Organize my Community and My government on the Ongoing Climate Crisis. I cried a lot during this whole Length of the video, just because of the pressing fear of looming Catastrophe . But as a Communist who actually believes that an Utopian world is possible, I am holding on to my illogical hope I have on the People of this Planet, that we'll do better and give a world where our Grandchildren are proud and Happy for. Thanks for this video again and hope that you make more videos like this❤
(below is the Commentary I was doing along the video with the timestamps )
6:19 it's sad to say that we have to be dependent on The worst natural disaster to hit a country and Let it lose lives just to divert their attention to the Crisis in hand😢
7:54 again, Sad to see Radicalism as an method to divert attention, but a needed one 😢
10:38 No way my people are gonna get Slaughtered in my own land... I hope that never happens even in my worst dreams. Also, there is an Oposition Growing. So Don't lose hope on India too
24:05 okay, that was a twist I wasn't expecting
28:59 again, I hope my people won't do that...
38:07 thought I would hear a good news, but😢. Yeah, the "Eco-terrorism" will be on Peak
38:35 finally a Good Fucking News
41:35 Crying hard here😭
46:57 yeah, the Party Spoilers at the big boys table. Who would have predicted this! /s
48:39 I am surprised why the sea rise issue wasn't talked much early. The entire half of Bangladesh would be Gone underwater at this point
50:25 yes finally, The Majority Asians did it
55:27 RIP Bozo
58:19 I thought of this the very sec I heard "China expanding because it needs lithium and Cobalt from Africa", my first reaction was "Shit, here comes the Worker exploitation"
59:43 the only reason I support Veganism
1:00:02 ohhh, Don't worry, that's happening sooner than you think...
1:05:39 "Deep with Details". Bruh... If you think that this is little Detail, then idk what is sufficient detailing
Wow. I watched the vid on nebula, and i just wanted to comment that i clicked on this vid and saw that it was 1h long, but could not stop watching. That was an amazing essay.
Im so inspired for my plans to help fight the crisis.
Trully thank you for making me feel inspired and more confident for the future❤
Can't wait to see you in the jingle jam! Also incredible video!
I've held off watching this video because of laziness and its length for way too long, but have finally gotten to it and... wew. This video has really touched me very deeply. Thank you for making this.
Great video to give hope and still provide the impetus for action from everyone.
This was one of the best videos I have watched in a while. Incredibly captivating for a video over an hour, especially having watched your video on the earlier decade before.
Keep up the good work!
This was amazing, congrats!
& loving the fusion energy jokes
Wow. Incredible work, Simon. Hope you and little fam going well 💜
came here from tiktok and i can already tell I'll enjoy this one. Thank you for putting in so much effort!
I'm absolutely speechless.
It feels like I held my breath for over 1 hour.
And to know you depicted only a 1.8° increase makes me feel even more despair
Wow! That’s quite different. Like a documentary. I’ll have to watch it again to get the info. Well done, sir
Saw this gem recommended in your last video. Can't believe I missed it, wonderful and somewhat terrifying!
Just watched this whole thing on Nebula. Sooooooo good!!!!
This is without a doubt the best video I have ever seen.
YES SIMON! This was the content I have been waiting for
I literally just watched 2 videos you made on this 3 months ago just now and this came out swinging
Well done. I really like the throw aways like the AI crash of '26 :)
Very, very thought-provoking video, amazing work as always, Simon!
This is remarkable, Simon. Informative, educational, emotional. Thank you so much for making this.
Simon, I'm in tears as I type this. I only hope and pray your projected model here is our worst case. Cheers
It is optimistic, but the idea that it won't happen is still quite scary, given that this is still a pretty grim outcome all things considered and we as a species are sadly not doing anything to change in this direction. We are just speeding faster and faster towards doom with absolutely no sign of stopping
I love the little details! Also, extremely impressive for only the third video in this style. I'm going to have to rewatch the other two episodes soon to refresh my memory.
Wow what an awesome video! Love the whole concept and execution was exquisite! The jokes about fusion being mere decades away made me chuckle 😂
That was a lot of time, thought and effort put into it. I am speechless. And that could all be real... Applauds!
These are fascinating projections. I would very much like to revisit this in 75 years to see which predictions were close and what may have been way off, but I doubt I’ll be around that long without major breakthroughs in longevity. How about a retrospective in 25 years?
41:42 Not on topic i know but i love the name dropping of random huge events in these sort of videos. Reminds me of the brief mention of "the clone wars" in A New Hope lol
"The AI bubble of '26" 😂
Wow. Just wow. I can't believe how much must have gone into making this, great job sir!
Amazing video, incredibly investing and inspiring, bringing both hope and uncomfortable respect for the consequences that lay ahead. Optimistic yet realistic. Brilliant work, I can only imagine the effort invested. Thank you!
This video should have wayyyy more views
Not fusion always being a few decades away ;-;
This video is amazing, and I will certainly be showing it to friends and family.
This is such a good video! I should not have put off watching it this long!
I absolutely love how this is basically a BobbyBroccoli video set in 2100 haha
I LOLed with "these did next to nothing" CCS bit
If only it wasn't so depressingly true it would have been the funniest bit of the video
I bet the biggest impact of CCS will be accidentally discovering ways for making really large and efficient filters for particulate matter that can be used in hospitals to clean the air of viruses and other things.
I'm sorry I missed this when it was posted. It's beautiful.
This is one of the best videos on TH-cam that I’ve seen, it (especially the end) made me feel certain feeling I can’ explain, like an old museum.
Very nice 👍
Doing anything to help fix the fucking mess?
@@mrunning10 bruh, I am a random guy in the most random useless country. Tf am I supposed to do? Run for president? Go to a protest? Why would anybody in power listen to me???
Wrong, so wrong. PICK the ONE thing that is MOST important for YOU that you want to change. VOTE for it. Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green, MAGA Morons, it doesn't matter. How to tell which one? Election Campaign Funding. Easy Googling to find out. And then ask yourself am I a greedy don't care person thinking short term? That's the problem with manmade climate change, the effects are well down the road.
@@user-yh1nm1vy3i
From your lips to voters' ears. And wow, you really are optimistic about placing the mosquito-borne disease outbreaks after 2035. We had 700+ cases of West Nile virus in Europe this year. By the end of the decade, we'll be well acquainted. With what we're doing to animals, another pandemic is awaiting too, so that will be fun too...
Nice work Simon 😊. Was waiting for “Solar Geoengineering” as a multitude of measures that enhance reflectivity. And a compression of history. Also 🎉closer to The Ministry of the Future that has a powerful economic resolution called Carbon Quantitative Easing. Really hope resource wars can be avoided by increased global cooperation.
Had me in tears a couple of times for different reasons. Amazing. Inspiring.
What a ride this video was! I can't be the only one who cried (multiple times!) during it.
And laughed too. Generally, it's amazing how emotional this felt.
I never really lost hope on the subject, but even I felt the rise of the hopium levels in my bloodstream by the end of it. And I think lots of people need that now.
I'm really happy this video exists
Amazing work, Simon!
You are definitely not alone. A few chuckles, and a few tears, and a lot to think about, a great video indeed.
It’s easy to be pessimistic about the future but we have to hold onto hope to a certain extent. We have to keep trying and fighting regardless because giving up doesn’t really serve a purpose. And if you love the natural world like i do, you should remember that nature never gives up. The one word that sums up nature more than any other, would be ‘Perseverance’.
The graphic of the tipping points and their probabilities is one of the best images I've ever seen showing the risks we face
This is a really cool bit of science-fiction and I think the documentary format is honestly a great way to present this kinda thing. I also like the focus on the global south, that seems extremely fitting.
Lost me at claiming China would become less confrontational.
Spectacular work. Your channel is criminally underrated in the video essay space.
That was very interesting, I was not surprised at how many other experts you had to talk to to make this.
Thank you so much for this video! Change always needs ideas and motivation and such content is so very important to show things ARE POSSIBLE. Thank you for this possible outlook, delivered in a captivating narration.
Thank you so much Simon !
It’s so refreshing to get a better view of how things could be if we keep on the fight, in a realistic way. It might be grim and far from the ideal we’d like to see, but still full of hope.
Thousands of thanks for the amazing work you and your team produce ❤
Your optimism is refreshing, though I am skeptical of such a good outcome /: Thank you very much for the video!
Excited to watch and already enjoying greatly 🙂🎉
LOVED this. Very well-done!
1.5°C at 2040? More like 2030-2033 at the latest.
We are accelerating at a speed of 0.24°C / Decade. Measured from 2013 - 2023 using "NOAA global time series tool" If you look at the trends from 2021-2023 and extrapolate that to a decade we are warming our planet at a speed of 1.00°C / decade. Which I really hope won't be the case.
Meaning in the best case scenario where we keep at the 2013 - 2023 pace. While we currently are at around 1.3°C:
1.3 + 0.24 = 1.54°C (in 10 years, best case)
1.3 + 1.00 = 2.30°C (in 10 years, worst case)
It's not always TH-cam seem to allow links, but here is a link to the NOAA Tool.
www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/12/10/1950-2023?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=2013&endtrendyear=2023
What a beautiful tribute to your father and to the relisience humanity can display...
Love the long form and speculative future possible look at what might happen. So many interconnected possibilities
Please keep producing these amazing ocntents
Outstanding work. I fear this is an overly optimistic view of our future, but hope is important and I hope I’m wrong.
This is a masterpiece!
This is such an interesting video concept
Incredible video! Well done!
im gonna come back to this video in 2100 and judge how accurate you were.
Only a few minutes in, but I'm sure Bobby will be proud once he sees this! Assuming he hasn't already.
beautiful video that brought me to tears, thank you!
Brilliant job Simon, well researched as always, and to put forward a 80 year projection of the future is an enormous task and has countless ways of unravelling. 2100 is a long way away (but a mere blip of time in other ways) and worryingly the depiction in this video requires an awful lot to go right to make it happen, not least of which requires a collective approach and actionable response from an increasingly polarised world here in 2023. No doubt the biggest change needed is the current way governments and politicians, business interests, environmentalists, scientists and most importantly the general public are able to amalgamate a common way forward.
One oversight in this video, I think, is your repeated use of the "sustainable aviation fuel" to refer to biofuels, while claiming that the world food system held on.
The use of shrinking areas of arable land to grow crops for fuel production would compete with the use of that land to grow food. Many years ago, I read an analysis in the French newspaper L'Humanité, stating that to meet France's transport needs from biofuels would require the entire arable area of France. Granted, this was not only fuel for air travel, but inevitably the diversion of land from food production to fuel production would push prices up, and push some of the world's population to (or over) the brink of starvation.
There has been some talk recently of producing biofuels from waste cooking oils, but there also seems to be significant doubt that enough waste oils could be collected to substitute more than a small fraction of current aviation fuel demand. As I see it, either mass air transport needs to end, or an entirely new approach is needed, such as the use of hydrogen fuel cells to power electric planes.
I'm of the opinion from all I've seen that biofuels are about as reliable as carbon capture. And until we have mass producable graphene material hydrogen fuel cells are deeply wasteful
@@sookendestroy1 My point isn't about the efficiency of biofuels, but that we're unlikely to be able to produce them in sufficient quantity without catastrophic effects on food supply.
How many people would it be "efficient"to starve in order to maintain mass air travel?
That deserves some thought. And we need more data. Some figures estimate that we could reduce agricultural land use by 2/3 (so only 1/3 of what we use now) if we switched diet. But then we need to account for the productivity of organic farming against conventional one, since it also seems we need to go full organic. Then calculate how much land would we need to give up to nature to recover ecosystems. Then see how much biofuel we could fit in the remaining gap.
Tbf this was in combination with a massive expansion of high speed rail, which is likely going to almost kill the regional aviation market, which currently accounts for the majority of air travel. In a place like Europe it would be fairly simple to move the majority of the journeys currently done by air over to high speed rail through relatively minor expansion of the current network but most importantly the interconnection of national networks, which is alreadly happening. We already have examples like France where short haul flights have been banned. In essence the aviation market he's envisioning is one that is much smaller than the current one. Also it is likely that biomass demand in the future won't be met by agriculture but by aquaculture in the form of sea weed and kelp farming, which also seems like a vital component in restoring ocean environments by filtering out runoff. Again in Europe there is ample opportunity for establishing kelp farms, and the high ammount of runoff seen in Europe also seemingly makes it a necessity, you can probably also do this elsewhere but I don't know a lot about the conditions outside the Baltic.