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How To Calculate Expected Value
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First time someone easily explained! Good vid
Thanks for the video. Made it easy to calculate. For probability, should we use the books odds or is it more accurate to take out the vig/juice first to get true odds?
Nice video, thanks for the info.
question: you picked to bet on Ravens. is there a chance that if you bet Browns it would turn out positive?
how can the ravens and browns both have over 50% probability of winning?
yeah wait what?
th-cam.com/video/KgHBIybAdKc/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=MatchbookBettingExchange
The bookies don't put the actual odds. That's why it happens.
KEEP IT UP
I tried to calculate the EV on some matches and I just can't find any bet with positive EV...
It is pretty rare to find. That’s why sports books do so well
Doing it manually is insanity. You need a website to send you EV bets.
That's where making sure you get CLV comes into the equation, gives the edge to you rather than the books
You won't find one, need to develop your own.
@@robertriebel8064 how can this be done? what kind of software do i need to program
Can't use the book lines, you need to develop your own model.
exactly
Why can’t someone create a calculator for ev because this shit is annoying
Oddsjam already did
How did you get -4.71 not -471?
471 pennies is $4.71
Is Ev supposed to always be equal for both bets? Also, how is there supposed to be value in a bet, if you are using the odds themselves to calculate the probability ? Isn’t Ev as simple as positive comparison between a projected probability vs the books implied probability?
You need to find bets where the books have essentially got the price incorrect so that there is + ev. If you only bet on these positive ev bets you will beat the books over time due to mathematics but online books will catch on quickly and close your account so it’s best used at different bookies on site.
yeah this isn't right, you can't base the ev off the books odds. you need to base it off your own system and compare your odds to the books to find the ev.
@@ptropica1000this would be assuming that your model is more accurate than all of the sports books models
@@rlillard913yeah that’s the point, you are trying to find an edge over the sportsbook