Fan Li: A tutorial on Bayesian causal inference

Fan Li (Duke University)- Title: A tutorial on Bayesian causal inference
Abstract: This paper provides a critical review of the Bayesian perspective of causal inference based on the potential outcomes framework. We review the causal estimands, identification assumptions, and general structure of Bayesian inference of causal effects. We highlight issues that are unique to Bayesian causal inference, including the role of the propensity score, definition of identifiability, and choice of priors in both low and high dimensional regimes. We point out the central role of covariate overlap and more generally the design stage in Bayesian causal inference. We extend the discussion to two complex assignment mechanisms: instrumental variable and time-varying treatments. Throughout, we illustrate the key concepts via examples.