Almost nobody's talking about the 1995 rate cuts that were an adjustment to the policy done to avoid a recession and is basically what the FED is trying to pursue now. The following 5 years were one of the best periods for stocks in history. Also to be considered, from the 2022 first hike we had the steepest hike cycle ever and the longest period of time between last hike and first cut. In conclusion, 50 bp shouldn't be seen as bearish, it should instead be seen as positive for stocks, the economy is still strong, consumer spending is not slowing and labour market has proven to be very resilient. The only gray spot I see comes from the commercial real estate sector, a 0.5% cut should give some kind of relief to it.
Dave thank you so much! Yield curve , LEI rate of change and LEI curve, stock price charts, where we are in the business cycle, interest rate cycles are all part of my investment decision making. I appreciate you excellent charts, insights and thoughts. Best wishes for you on another new chapter in life and investing.
Dave , You know it, I am the best trader. In this week the financial market ( stocks ) will go down. I can see pivot point in the nearest future. Very nice presentation. I just think ; you should inform us , what is your opinoin. Just try predict the future. It is the main goal of this chanel.😊
David. Just think. Is it possible, someone just know algorithms you don't know? Is it possible??? In my opinion it can be possible. I am a surgeon. My passion is financial mathematic. I study variety MACD histograms (different inputs) many years . Great presentation, but zero your own sugestion.
Thanks Dave !! The Fed will meet again on Nov 6-7. Will see who will be the next President !! ----- This week Apple's volume has the highest level over the past 2 years. Daily and weekly charts of Apple got identical SAR alerts. GL.
Are the shaded areas defined by when the NBER retroactively declares recession and end of recession...well after market participants have use for that information?
@@DKellerCMT 👍 I hope you get this in time to include in your mailbag. What do you make of recent FedEx earnings and outlook that Business to Business shipping have slowed significantly and the outlook is poor? Doesn't this represent a significant component of the new Dow theory?
Why are you using the wrong yield curve, which has had a false signal and is not good at predicting the length of recession?Watch any of Campbell Harvey's interviews on youtube where he states the correct one (10 year and 3 month, not 2 year)
@@raakgu Go watch any interview he's ever done - he explains why the 3M is still the one to use. There's a good one he did within the last 2 weeks. I hope you're joking when you give the Fed as justification to use a different metric to the actual inventor.
Despite the popularity of the 10y-02y curve, and despite you and many others cherry picking 0 line touches in your demo, Harvey's work showed it was the 10y-3mo that showed the correlation with recessions. That's still inverted, and a full 1% below the 10y-2y. He's also come out and said it's a theory and believes it may very well not work as a predictor this time around potentially as a function of the institutions that drive the indicators of recessions having studied and incorporating it into their risk planning and behavior unlike ever before.
It's also not touches of the zero line but more sustained periods of at least 2 to 3 months of 10y-3mo < 0. If you were to use the correct yield durations and this rule, you wouldn't have to cherry pick your zero line touches.
Almost nobody's talking about the 1995 rate cuts that were an adjustment to the policy done to avoid a recession and is basically what the FED is trying to pursue now. The following 5 years were one of the best periods for stocks in history. Also to be considered, from the 2022 first hike we had the steepest hike cycle ever and the longest period of time between last hike and first cut. In conclusion, 50 bp shouldn't be seen as bearish, it should instead be seen as positive for stocks, the economy is still strong, consumer spending is not slowing and labour market has proven to be very resilient. The only gray spot I see comes from the commercial real estate sector, a 0.5% cut should give some kind of relief to it.
Great points here and thanks for sharing your perspective!! D
Dave thank you so much! Yield curve , LEI rate of change and LEI curve, stock price charts, where we are in the business cycle, interest rate cycles are all part of my investment decision making.
I appreciate you excellent charts, insights and thoughts. Best wishes for you on another new chapter in life and investing.
So many moving parts- and I'm thankful if I can help you navigate these waters! Thanks for watching D
Thanks Dave! Your commentary is as good as gold.
And gold's making a new high! Thanks so much D
Great charts to show what may come next, thanks!
Appreciate that!! D
Great info on the yield curve!
Glad you enjoyed this one! D
Dave , You know it, I am the best trader. In this week the financial market ( stocks ) will go down. I can see pivot point in the nearest future. Very nice presentation.
I just think ; you should inform us , what is your opinoin. Just try predict the future. It is the main goal of this chanel.😊
THE BEST. Don't strive to predict the future, strive to follow the trends! :) D
David. Just think. Is it possible, someone just know algorithms you don't know? Is it possible???
In my opinion it can be possible.
I am
a surgeon. My passion is financial mathematic. I study variety MACD histograms (different inputs) many years . Great presentation, but zero your own sugestion.
Great show without any doubts
Appreciate the comments! D
Great work. Reading between the lines these factors would suggest keeping a lot of money in cash wouldn't be a silly idea?
Thanks
I'll be watching closely for signs of deterioration! D
Excellent David, thank you.
David should show us his scenario number1,2 ,3,4. SHOULDN'T HE??????
Appreciate the feedback! D
good stuff
Thanks so much for watching! D
Good video
Thanks so much for watching! D
Thanks Dave !! The Fed will meet again on Nov 6-7. Will see who will be the next President !! ----- This week Apple's volume has the highest level over the past 2 years. Daily and weekly charts of Apple got identical SAR alerts. GL.
Crazy times indeed!! D
Are the shaded areas defined by when the NBER retroactively declares recession and end of recession...well after market participants have use for that information?
Yep that's the NBER way after the fact! D
Greta video thanks!
So we should have a recession in about 1-4 months time if the pattern continues?
No guarantees, but that would follow the historical pattern pretty well D
What address do you now use for the "Maibag" ?
No address, just drop comments on TH-cam, X, Facebook! D
@@DKellerCMT 👍 I hope you get this in time to include in your mailbag. What do you make of recent FedEx earnings and outlook that Business to Business shipping have slowed significantly and the outlook is poor? Doesn't this represent a significant component of the new Dow theory?
Why are you using the wrong yield curve, which has had a false signal and is not good at predicting the length of recession?Watch any of Campbell Harvey's interviews on youtube where he states the correct one (10 year and 3 month, not 2 year)
@@raakgu Go watch any interview he's ever done - he explains why the 3M is still the one to use. There's a good one he did within the last 2 weeks.
I hope you're joking when you give the Fed as justification to use a different metric to the actual inventor.
There are a number of ways to measure this, all with their benefits and flaws! 3mo vs 10yr is another good one to watch. D
Despite the popularity of the 10y-02y curve, and despite you and many others cherry picking 0 line touches in your demo, Harvey's work showed it was the 10y-3mo that showed the correlation with recessions. That's still inverted, and a full 1% below the 10y-2y.
He's also come out and said it's a theory and believes it may very well not work as a predictor this time around potentially as a function of the institutions that drive the indicators of recessions having studied and incorporating it into their risk planning and behavior unlike ever before.
It's also not touches of the zero line but more sustained periods of at least 2 to 3 months of 10y-3mo < 0.
If you were to use the correct yield durations and this rule, you wouldn't have to cherry pick your zero line touches.
Yep, there are a number of ways to measure the shape of the yield curve- all have their issues! D