ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 เม.ย. 2024
- Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group analyzes the silver market, addressing common misconceptions about a potential silver shortage. He debunks the idea that the world is facing a massive silver deficit, and explains why fabrication demand only and not investment demand should be used in calculating the balance between newly refined supply and demand that takes silver out of its refined metal form. He discusses the enormous above ground inventories that do not appear in LBMA or Comex reported stock data.
Jeff also discusses silver applications in various technologies, including solar panels and automotive electronics, to provide a realistic outlook on future demand and usage trends. He concludes by discussing CPM Group’s long-term silver outlook, and the right reasons to be bullish on the commodity.
#silver #preciousmetals #commodities
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The guy is clueless. The demand for silver is not coming from the coins that your average US citizen is buying. First, it is from the BRICS+ nations (membership expected to rise many fold in the coming months and years) who are trying to establish a stable currency based on commodities such as gold and silver. Second, it is from the countries that are trying to sell off their US treasury holdings and converting those dollars into gold and silver. Third, it is from the industry (India's silver imports surged by 260% in February 2024 alone).
This makes no sense, you can argue there is no shortage of gold, most stored in vaults, still the price has been going up. Also the silver production is declining and is now less than the demand. Silver is also a monetary metal, not just indusrial. It is also popular as jewelry. It is also obvious that 30 dollar is a limit now that silver i not allowed to pass. Silver is a small market that is easy to manipulate.
$30 silver makes sense.
$60 silver soes not.
@@jbrown6367Why? Gold at an ATH in dollar by far, silver has a long way to go to reach silver ATH. I would say 100 dollar silver is more reasonable now and would help bring more production online. I am also of the opinion this price supression scheme that has been going on for ages at Comex and LBMA, has been extremley unfair to countries like Mexico. In a sense they have been robbed from a most valuable resource that is getting more and more used. Anyway, that will soon not matter that much as now physical silver starts driving the price more and more, not those paper derivatives.
@@jbrown6367 In what time frame…and “why?” $60/oz makes no sense tomorrow, next week or next month, but it seems perfectly reasonable a year from now…IF certain, very feasible things happen. What makes no sense is for silver to have been $50/oz 44years ago and a decade ago and is barely half that price now. THAT is what doesn’t make sense. Time will tell.
@@jbrown6367articulate that statement because it sounds like you're speaking from a place of immense knowledge of the subject, and I am eager to learn.
Buy high sell higher
This story sounds nice , the problem is it’s false . During Pandemic when demand was made by many , the depositories were empty and people had to wait for months
But was that a supply chain issue? “We have it, we just can’t get it to you, in the form you want, quickly.” (Similar to the huge toilet paper rolls for industrial use going unpurchased, while ‘home sized’ 4 packs were instantly depleted). Eventually we can turn available 1000 oz. bars into small units (forgot the term, “blanks” ?) that can then be sent to minters to be minted, then stored, then sent to suppliers (bullion dealers), then to you. With Covid lockdowns there was even more delays in every step along the way. We have become so addicted to “just in time delivery” that a pandemic can disrupt the instant gratification mindset of (American especially) consumers.
They had plenty of silver back then the problem was making the planchet
@@jimfrost5287 so you are confirming that when there is high demand, they can not meet it? Did not see on publication about the planchet theory. I am sure there is plenty in the ground as well. However with spike in demand, the vaults were caught with their pants down. Once the retail gets in the game again we will have a repeat.
400 times more paper siler that physical. For sure there is no PAPER silver shortage!
This is Like a Comedy Channel for Business People
Existing silver doesn't mean available silver! It may be available at a price, but what is that price? Some people are selling, yes! But not the big holders who can wait it out, just the little guys that need the money today! Is that a significant source of supply? But very good perspective, Thanks CPM Group and Jeffrey Christian!
Dont tell me , Silver & Gold bad eh jeffrey
I love how he says that even if you won't sell it your heirs will. I really like 90% silver, but so does the older generation. So many liquidations of estates keep the 90% market alive
My heirs cannot sell what they cannot find! 😂🎉
Sure there is surplus in silver, but it's a LOT bigger surplus in gold in the way you see it Jeff. Right?
There is no shortage in gold and a dollar price over 2000 an ounce is an illusion. 😂
I thing, the biggest surplus we have with the Dollar! 😂😂😂
What a bunch of gibberish. Makes no sense whatsoever.
The Shorts are the ETF's right Wiggy
Time for a song.
How about this one?
"The Four Tops - It's The Same Old Song".
Can you a video like this for platinum and palladium? Would love to get your input on those markets since you guys cover silver and gold a lot.
Wonderful video!! Can you do a video on a gold deficit or surplus too?
Thank you.
Jeffrey does good for the world making people Laugh
I hope silver goes up high enough for me to sell what physical I have left.
It's the worst performing asset I have an a huge ripoff for the premiums buying and the ripoff when I sell.
Not a silver gold buyer I trade it on the fx market time to time.
Silver problem is central banks don’t hoard silver bars if they loved it equally as gold it should have been 12-1 can this happen if gold goes sky high silver is also rare possibly don’t know what tomorrow holds if the find other uses for silver or if there a massive world war then maybe maybe not.
Always enjoy your commentary. Very reasonable
How do you recover all the silver that was used in missiles and atomized?
Marine cloud brightening 😉
Basic economics defines supply not as the amount that exists but rather as the amount offered for sale to buyers.. The supply of silver is the amount offered for sale, and silver is in shortage or surplus depending on how much sellers offer for sale minus how much buyers offer to buy. Surpluses, deficits, and equilibrium price do not depend on on how much of a good exists. Diamonds are much more numerous than the price would imply, but the owners of the diamond reserves restrict sale, so the price is high. The supply is what they sell, not what they hold. The amount that exists is irrelevant to whether there is a surplus or deficit. Also, your claim that the definition of supply of silver needs to be restricted to industrial or decorative use is wrong. Economics doesn't make such distinctions. Using silver for investment is as valid a use as using it for cars, etc. What matters is what is being offered for sale, not what exists. You can call it demand for silver as money. There is nothing in economics to say that demand for something as money is chimerical.
Exactly!
CPMGroup would you say there’s a difference between investing and speculation?
Silver is a great 👍 buy.
JC is the only one who insist that there's no shortage in silver. Thanks for being the lone voice. I don't know for sure but his view is the only explanation for the price of silver languishing the past 10 years. Price manipulation happens all the time but unlikely maintained for such a long time.
Don't get me wrong, I'm really into silver cos it's too cheap and beaten down.
Yup, the free market doesn't lie for that long. It's not in a shortage but we are getting there, and that's what's driving the price up right now.
Silver is always waiting....ask the Hunt brothers.
I am sorry, but ignoring investment demand when projecting silver prices, because it becomes above ground inventory, is brain dead. Jeffrey acts as though this inventory is available for industry, when in fact, it may not be available until a much higher price encourages folks to sell. People, such as myself, can just sit on their silver for decades. If industry needs this metal, today, they are not going to be able to necessarily access it because it is available, theoretically, above ground.
u are right on point. I was thinking about this too. Many investors may not want to sell at all especially if they treat it as a insurance policy. I m always so curious when he take investment demand as above ground inventory. Of course this inventory can also appear when the price is right. But now i see when the chinese are buying, they could grab it up super fast like we never seen before.
The dip has made the silver attractive for investors that will rise the demand of the silver to start again buying the silver thats from the ”ground” its more of an buy order for the silver that will rise the price
Thanks!🎉
Broken record on repeat , when you going to buy 100 million ounces off the Comex and have it delivered in physical bars, like you said?....... Hell id do it if i hsd the paper money. Youd makr a fortune selling it in 6 months !🤪
I've been watching for 13 minutes (that's 20 minutes now)(25 minutes now) and all you've done was beat the metal down. I mean we get it. You don't buy the conspiracy BS. Tell me why you're bullish! What reason do you have to be bullish. My expectations are managed, you've beaten them into the ground. Tell me why my shitty investment isn't that bad now please. Don't make me sit through 27 minutes of word salad to get to the good stuff.
That's an honest criticism. I'm not asking for sensational bullshit. I get it you're not some pied piper selling us a dream. You're being realistic. You have my attention. Give me the good news now
Final edit
I sat through 27 minutes and 50.seconds for your bullish take on silver and you didn't tell me. Your description literally says at the end that you would share why you believe silver is a good investment.. lol wtf who gives you their money?
The Chinese government has recently recommended that its citizens buy Silver 🧐 if their population buys an ounce, that’s well over a years supply 😉
my frd in china buy 2 years ago. like u said each one grab an ounce, there will not b enf silver.
Will they though most likely 10-20 million of them the rest won’t if they did yes years supply would just wooosh or if they all went out looking for 100 oz silver for no matter the price that would be a massive people
A viewer would have to be intellectually bankrupt to believe anything in this presentation..Surprised you didn`t start talking about all the silver available in the asteroid belt AGAIN..
Funny I think silver bugs are morally bankrupt.
CPM is hated by silver space scammers for good reason. They provide real info and data.
@@sketchin6993I think you mean they let this reptile make the rules up.
Lol I just come here for the comments now
This is going to age like milk.
Jeffrey Stacks Copper Wigs thats why Copper is Up..His Wigs are 99999 Copper 1st 5(Five)99999 Copper Wig
Jeff many thanks 😊
Great content as always
People always talk about the silver in Comex and LME but never in Shanghai, because it's always a lot of silver in Shanghai.
Jeff, silver stacking isn't an investment it's a religion😜
0:35 Bix Weir has left the chat
I'm still here! I'm scratching my head...How does the 76% growth in 2023 Solar Panel installations equate to only 38% growth in Solar Silver?! Come on Jeff....help us ALL do the math!!
@@RoadtoRoota @ Troy Ounce doesn`t care about math..Whatever Jeffy says that`s what it is !!
Guys like Bix Wier make money off loosing you money. Guy has a long enough online presence to show he's not right.. LOL
Jeff, you are too predictable. You show up every single time silver catches a bid. It's always the same beat down speech that none of us will ever be stupid enough to believe.
This guy is such a weasel. Why would he care if people believe in a false assumption that there is a shortage of silver? IF he's right and there is no shortage, why devote his entire life to smashing all hope for silver investors? Jeff, we all know you're lying. Some play along, some don't, but we all know. It is what it is. I'll stick to my convictions, just like I did due ng COVID. I was right, I knew I was right and I never let the weasels get me down. It paid off big time. Silver will have it's day.
Well, the free market doesn't lie for that long. Do you really think that the price has been beaten down for this long because of manipulation? That is ridiculous. If there is a shortage, the price will eventually spike...PERIOD.
Also, it amazes me how most silver hoarders believe in dumb COVID conspiracies.
So why doesn't the price rise in real inflation adjusted terms?
I made a nice profit investing into silver when CPM Group was telling everyone to sit on the sidelines .. this guys advice is completely incorrect
sniff sniff...... something stinks in this vid...
say what you want Jeffery - Silver is money so it is a replacement for failing fiat currencies. Maybe get some Silver!
He has said he's still holding onto his silver he had bought 40 years ago,
So, we should not look at the exchange inventories that set the spot price; we should also look at all the silver held by private individuals and businesses?
At what price will this silver outside the system enter the market? It's not about silver "running out." It's about what price people will pay for physical silver. This amateur's idea is akin to the "PLENTY OF HOUSES" concept without considering the undeniable fact that most people are not selling.
Nonsense
He’s basically saying there will never be a deficit because investment demand doesn’t don’t.
But he actually does say there have been deficits in past years. Just look at his charts. He also admits that it is “tight” right now! (Which, looking at his charts, it is clear we are heading towards deficits rapidly. I think Jeff, if pressed, would say ‘yes, we will be in deficits starting in 2025’?). But I can’t speak for him. As to your final point I couldn’t agree more. “Investment demand” doesn’t count because the silver is “there”. Seriously?! I can assure you my silver is not available to anybody but me. Just saying.
Liar
WLB!
thank's Jeff !
To all the winers out there, if J C is so wrong, why is he the only one I know of who has consistently called the fair price of Silver. TH-cam is full of idiots spruiking absolute nonsense these past dozen years that I've been following. Full disclosure: I'm still a Gold, Silver & Bitcon bug.
there is once he said byproduct silver is 0.5 to 2.5$, i think all the mine should close down because their cost is way higher than this and just pay 4 times to get the byproduct silver and sell for 20$ still make a bunch. So sometimes i don't know what is real or not from him.
@@gimpee8113 Citations please!
silver deficit 2021- 51 mil onces, for 2022 230mil onces and for 2023 over 190mil onces for 2024 the prediction is 176 mil onces deficit - so for me this presentation makes no sense
You just redefine demand to mean only certain kind of demand. So this whole long video to say what you could say in 30 seconds, I wan tto redefinte demand, so that there is no shortage. The reason that you are wrong is that then you have to redefine shortage to mean only industrial shortage. But demand is demand and shortage is a shortage and sellers don't care when demand is buying from them.
Good video
I'll buy your Silver for $12.00 an ounce.
Better get rid of it before it's worthless!
Great Video!, Nice to hear some common sense, in this world of hype
It's always fun to come here to see all of Jeff's burner accounts praising how great his videos are... "Great video Jeff!" "Great content as usual" "Nice to hear some common sense"... Get some new material.
Huh?
The Wig need some Trimming around the Side or Hedges
Hey Jeffrey. If you're so good at predicting bullish silver how is it you completely missed the doubling in Sumner 2020 and then misinterpreted publicly whilst it was happening. You couldn't spot a shovel if it was coming towards you 😂😂😂