@@luisdetomaso867 LOL I'm sympathetic to your sentiment, I even got a laugh from it. However, I'm not aware of anyone who got things right in 2023, and even if someone did, we still have more than four months to go. Please tell us who has been right so far. In my opinion, the markets have demonstrated unprecedented schizophrenia this year.
Lance always teaches me something new about the market with every weekly recap! Kudos to you, Adam, for asking great questions and Lance for his candid, lucid answers.
The privately owned large residential home builder my kiddo got laid off from last fall in KC is now having much worse problems I hear. Everyone that works for them is looking for a job. Maybe the home builders in a fairly stable market are starting to crack now. Let’s hope. They have some of their multi family units over priced by at least 40% and 2800 sq ft single family still at $420 starting. It’s so ridiculous to pay that. I just got that update in the past 2 days. They have a real mess on their hands. Was a strong company before the inflation spiking and rates as well
Very insightful video. The segment on the bond outlook starting at about minute 56 is rather profound. The million dollar question is "how does the yield curve steepening take place?". Lance has doubled down on both the long end and the short end declining when the FED pivots. What happens if the vigilantes show up and as the short end declines the long end rises? I monitor Simplevisor which is currently at about 20% treasuries most of which are TLT. If Lance's portfolio looks anything like Simplevisor's then I would be concerned, a bond position approaching 40% will create problems with your sleep routine. Good luck. Jim
@@larryjoe1357 One can make a very strong case that yields on the 20 and 30 year bonds will not see a "3 handle" again for the remainder of Lance's natural life. From 1977 until 2011, the yield on the 30yr bond was 4% or higher (with the exception of 5 months in 08/09 and 3 months in 2010). If the Fed achieves 2% annual inflation, then the Treasury will have to offer a premium over 2% to bond purchasers in order to provide a positive real rate of return. I would expect that premium to be at least 2% in order provide a return over inflation and to compensate for duration risk. So that's a 4% yield and that's probably a best case scenario, given that the fiscal deficits of the US Govt are going to increase exponentially and buyers are going to demand higher yields to compensate for increasing risk.
I don't understand when Lance says Apple's revenue hasn't grown in years, he did not show any chart either. I checked annual revenue for Apple: 2022: $394,328M, 2021: $365,817M, 2020: $274,515, 2019: $260,174M, 2010: $65,225M. Between 2021 & 2022, this is a 7% growth! CVS Health: 2022: $322,467M, 2021:$292,111, a growth of 10%. However, when you look at Net Income, APPLE for 2021 9.4M, grew to 9.8M in 2022: a growth of 5%. CVS: net income 4.1M in 2022, 7.9M in 2021, declined by 48%!!!! Hence, the stock is down. Do your own research.
He didn’t say that. He said its growth doesn’t justify its earnings/sales multiple. And its revenue is decelerating in 2023, so prior years are not the whole story.
@@GrantLeeEdwards he said Apple’s revenue has been going down for years. Even otherwise, revenue is growing. Of course for a company this size, it won’t always be growing at 10% each year
@@meesi7053 You are incorrect. Go back & watch it. 6:00 or so. He’s talking about Apple’s revenue growth, & he says it doesn’t support the current price. Which is true. But it’s a huge part of weighted indexes like SPY and QQQ and XLK, hence “you gotta own it.” He isn’t a moron & wouldn’t say that Apple’s revenue keeps falling YOY. That deceleration applies to 2023.
As a tax cpa, I just want to correct lances comments about the erc. A company doesn’t need to lose money to qualify. They simply needed to have a decline in revenue or been shut down due to state or local government mandates. There were a lot of profitable companies who qualified for the credit who simply manipulated the timing of recognizing their revenue. One important note though is the irs extended the statute of limitations from 3 years to 10 years. The irs is going to have 10 years to challenge these credits and people will eventually get hammered
Adam and Lance weekly market recap is the best show on USA stock markets. It is indeed very comprehensive and well balanced from technical and fundamental perspective. Keep up the good work your discussion and analysis is really very helpful in formulating investment strategy.
What a viewers need is a time machine. You have a thesis, you bring on guests who argue for that thesis, then when it doesn't work out you give a detailed analysis of why it didn't work out! Use our time machine to go back and reverse our position or take one. Keep up your track record Adam and they will call you "Jim Cramer, Jr."
Think Lance lost his way in explaining the flat tax idea. He just finished telling how a dollar is taxed multiple times as it changes hands. Then he suggested that is the reason for the flat tax idea. Problem is, that flat taxed dollar still becomes taxable income to the next recipient. Just sayin'.
@@johngalt7465 A poor person needs all they make to meet basic needs. A rich person only needs a small portion of what they make to meet basic needs. Taxing them both at the same rate is unethical. In addition, poor people put their income back into the economy because they have to spend it to survive. Not so the rich person, who slows down the velocity of money by hoarding it.
If you start with a warm shower and slowly go down to the coldest setting over a few min, it’s not that bad. Then stay on the coldest level for 30-40sec Try it, and you’ll love it. Great for the muscles, body and spirit. You have to tell the mind to do things it doesn’t want to do. This is the discipline muscle.
I'm one of those first time home buyers on the sideline. I have an above average household income, and I can't afford houses at this level even with a large down payment. The prices are absurdly high. The prices also rose 30-40% during the pandemic when cash buyers were wiping us first time buyers out. I've given up. I can't compete. Its much cheaper to rent than buy for now.
It’s saddest and most maddening thing that has happened due to the pandemic. First time buyers are screwed and who knows if that’ll ever change. We need a fairly deep recession and a ton of layoffs in order to change the housing matrix in my opinion. And less stimulus as well. The economy is totally manipulated by govt and congress. Selling SPR reserves to manipulate. Sending companies billions in payroll tax relief weekly while the avg employee takes in the rear. Quite a little game being played about the avg American
@johnunderwood8131 due to the money printing and fed buying of mortgage bonds through 2021. Let's be clear. They always have an excuse, pandemic or otherwise. Powell doesn't even have an economics degree. He sells.snake oil.
It can be extremely frustrating waiting for this everything bubble to pop and help bring real estate back to its normal levels but be encouraged...its going to happen...it always has and hopefully we will see this in 2024. I'm in a similar position although I'm not a first time buyer and I'm renting in an expensive area (Bend, OR.) and hate seeing rent money being flushed down the toilet. I ran my own company for 37 years and recently retired and experienced these recessions over the years and real estate always reverted back to the mean.
This channel has been wrong for a year missing the 40% AI rally and now when the market makes a healthy 5% consolidation pull back, they claim it's "as expected"
According to recession definition we have been in one from several months ago already. What you may been saying is that consumer spending isn't finished yet, but that is only due to the fact that they still have credit and a very few still are depleting their savings. This doesn't mean we aren't in a recession.
I think I just answered my own question with forward vs trailing PE ratios. There’s probably some rosy scenario earnings forecast out there projecting significant growth.
One of the things that I really would like to see more of on Wealthion is that you ask for specific opinions about what your guests think are the best investment strategies for average people to use how they should adjust as time goes on, etc. I really would like to see you keep doing that. Then people can collect and weigh the opinions of dozens and dozens of these analysts. Its also good to have them come back to update their opinions on investment strategy
The more you adjust your strategy, the more likely you are to get it wrong because you are effectively trying to time the market. Pick a strategy you believe in, do your homework, and stick to it. If you are really concerned about that strategy's long-term potential, use multiple accounts with different strategies for each. And weight each according to your belief in its long term prospects and your ability to execute on those strategies.
Disney earnings shows clearly in my opinion consumer spending trend is in decline. As people cut spending ending subscriptions. What puzzles me is does Disney really think increasing prices is a good move. It'll just give a reminder for more people to cancel subscription but whatever.
I agree. Most people are definitely feeling the pinch and some in a large way, and the first thing Disney does is raise their prices. Maybe they have to to keep profitable I don’t know. Either way I can definitely see demand going down for them.
You two always help me understand things one level higher! Like little pieces of a bug puzzle coming together I really appreciate you both so much Thank you!
I understand the momentum dynamic Lance is talking about with passive indexing however, this mechanic works inversely in a downturn. This should be considered in terms of risk.
the issue with housing is the investor group if the transaction cost was like stocks u would see more inventory. THe homebuilders (the pros) is using the 1st mover advantage
Lance, it's the first time I hear you talk about changes in the allocation of your personal portfolio. I don't know if it is possible but it'd be great to have more visibility and updates on your personal allocations (at least on the stuff that we can also invest in), rather than updates on the model portfolio you run for your clients since this is influenced by so many factors. I'm asking because, just like you, I have a long term investment horizon and am not benchmarking myself vs the S&P500 or the MSCI world. Thanks!
When talking about bonds, it’s important to state whether you mean owning a bond etf or owning individual bonds to hold to maturity. People can get good yield on a short term treasury right now but the bond ETF’s are languishing. When the Fed starts reducing rates, the bond etfs will become bullish (rising share price) while the yield on individual bonds will become less attractive. So it would be helpful if you could clarify what you mean when you talk about “investing in bonds.”
"When the Fed starts reducing rates, the bond etfs will become bullish, while the return on individual bonds will become less attractive" You need to explain this statement. The 20 year bond has a yield significantly higher than TLT, because the net yield on TLT is reduced by bonds purchased when yields were much lower. If the Fed starts to cut rates, I would rather own the bonds than TLT because they have a higher yield and therefore greater potential for capital appreciation (premium over my initial investment when sold).
@@billybudapest3129 When interest rates start dropping, the share price of TLT and other bond funds will rise. So you can make $ through capital appreciation of those shares, even as the yield is small. I think it’s fairly easy to sell an individual treasury bill/note/bond but I have never done so. I don’t currently have any duration higher than 2 years, but I expect to look at some longer durations soon.
There are advantages and disadvantages for both. Lance recently mentioned he was buying TLT for long term bonds. I like the ETFs such as TLT as you can sell quickly if you need to. You can still sell individual bonds as well but a little more complicated. I recently bought TBIL through Charles Schwab for short term bonds and will probably buy TLT or TMF for long term bonds soon. I’m not advising you on want to do as I’m not a financial adviser. I hope this helps.
Min34. An episode on the FairTax or possible interview with Steve Hayes would be great. FT eliminates capital gains tax and corporate tax(that is always passed onto the consumer embedded into the cost of the product). The worker receives the missing 23% of their paycheck and broadens the tax base through a sales that leaves necessities untaxed via the prebate
The market pullback they talked about seems to be happening as they predicted. It's like how they mentioned the hot Texas summers - sometimes things get tough, but we keep going!
Last year in Britain, the bond market revolted on the Guilt. So I ask the question ; Are we really 30 years away from seeing something like that in America?
In UK most govt money is now being spent on consumption/state wages & pensions not investment - not that govt should be even trying to pick winners. But it would be nice to cycle, walk or drive more than 5 yards without encountering a pot hole!!!
I just bought in at 93.99 which is at a near 20 yr. low hope to do well from here or maybe a little more downside which I would buy more. when did you get in I hope you re-coup your investment.
This python is seriously constipated. We need to feed it with some serious laxatives so that we can all finally make money, improve our lives and turn the world into a happy place. These politicians are really specialising in busting my balls. P.S. great show.
I fully agree with Lance on TLT trade. Considering the amount of debts in the system and the likelihood of a recession in the next 1-3 years, long term yields can only come down. I increased my TLT position significantly last week as well knowing that in short term I might lose but long term, the outcome is inevitable for me as this economy and the system with so much debts can’t afford higher interest rates in mid and long term.
These guys are trading on short term volatility while I look at the 18-24 month horizon…I don’t think you can time this if you want to invest long term in TLT.
So what are you saying, that is exactly what Lance is saying you can't time this that is why he doubled his position now. TLT is a a near 20 yr. low it seems now is a good time to buy and sit.@@umutcam3152
Big money vanished from the stock market 2 weeks ago. They didn't go to treasuries, gold, Bitcoin or defensives. They are just hoarding cash and waiting for SPY 430 to come in and swoop at low prices. They may be in for a nasty surprise, though. Credit markets are freezing up and the banking crisis will return in September. 10 yr yield is fast approaching 4.5%. They may find their ability to manipulate the market is limited.
@@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods there is no certainty in the stock market. Doing debit put spreads rather than straight out puts: much better risk/reward balance when IV is low and market is dull.
Lance is a genius! We need to tax dollars not economic activity, and once a dollar has been taxed once it can never be taxed again. We’ll probably need to put expiration dates on dollars though or things may get out of hand…
I found little to no value in this discussion in support of helping me make short term investment decisions. However, this conversation helps one better understand what is taking place socially and financially in the background that helps me make better life and investment decisions going forward. Thanks
People keep saying "look at Japan - no inflation!" Well, I run a hard asset company and I deal to Japanese dealers. They are voracioulsy buying every type of hard asset because they don't trust their own currency. I can't keep enough stock to supply their demand. Also, they have a homogenous society so they don't have the same ethnic problems we do, so you don't see the massive resentments we see here. But when we become like Japan , and it is hapenning, it will be much more corrosive here than it is there. And the inflation is there whether or not your official gauges measure it.
You are 100% right. There is no way the next 30 years of the United States will be a duplicate of the last 30 of Japan. Our cultures are markets are totally different . The financial and political problems facing the United States in 2025, no comparison to Japan’s 1990.
Agree. Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS will pump $Trillions into the economy, mostly into Wall Street stonks. No recession in sight between fiscal money from DC and the Fed's failure to raise rates high enough.
The housing price thing is really hard to say because there are entire new waves of households forming all the time that want a house. If there’s pent up demand for household formations buying a house you get a situation where the marginal home price could be going up.
"There will be a flood of people selling homes when rates go down" logic would tell us higher rates have kept people on the sidelines who will want to buy when rates drop and have we forgotten when you sell a house you still need somewhere to live?? Its not about rates its only about inventory.
Lance thanks for introducing your personal exposure to bonds. I have the same opinion and am laddered in CD's and Treasuries. If rates keep going up I will benefit by investing the maturing CD's in the higher returning bonds. If rates go down I will benefit with the locked in longer term bonds. Nice to see you personally reflect my investing philosophy. I also have a purchasing power of the Dollar hedge by investing 25% of my portfolio in PSLV. I am 69 and do not want risk but just portfolio protection against the overspending with the government deficits.
Thanks Adam and Lance for another great interview and weekly update. I appreciate your perspective and comments Adam on things that are particularly annoying like tax structure, US debt for example and how out of balance our government is.
There are many corporations that are pass through corporations, so the income is put on their personal tax return and taxed there, not on the corporate return. So taxes are being paid by the Corp, just not on a Corp return, so that will lower the amount of total taxes paid by all corps lower.. by a lot. There are pass through corps as small as your local dentist or lawyer up to large companies with many employees.
The further the markets go down, the faster they will do so. I certainly hope Lance Roberts has reconsidered purchasing NVDA in this "healthy pullback".
He said he is a fundamental guy and Apple is overvalued but CVS is undervalued based up on their P/E and P/S. When I look at their P/E, Apple has 29.93 and CVS has 34.65. How is that explained? How come he can tell just by looking at their PE and PS???
The problem is we stripped all the manufacturing (high value add) jobs out of the country. This resulted in a huge segment of the population being unable to pay for their needs - before and after retirement. So, we’ve ended up with a massive and permanent welfare roll.
Corporations - mostly - are efficient with their dollars. If they don’t pay taxes, they create jobs and those people pay taxes and don’t take from the system in welfare, etc. Thanks Lance. I keep saying that corporations shouldn’t have to pay taxes or very little but they should have to have a lot of their business here.
Lance, if you want to get a good company’s employee plan, my wife works for PPG and while the benefits and matching is all good, the funds of their 401k choices suck. You can’t even put your money into a MM or Treasury only fund. All bond funds mix corporate and government - I don’t want corporate bonds right now. I want a place to store cash, make interest and wait for a pullback before buying. We can’t. We can only sit and lose money. Don’t use my name.
Interesting video. Personally would have liked more on the markets/ stocks this week as proportionally there was a lot less on this versus topics like fiscal policy, government deficit, taxes, fraud issues, etc. Thanks.
What happens when USD/JPY threatens to touch 150? Bank of Japan is not an economic model worth following as they are just useful greedy bastards (definitely not idiots) who launder inflation & oil suppression via currency manipulation. It's not exactly subtle where inflation has gone. Look at $SVIX, $UVIX, $CL & USD/MXN. Recession cometh.
If you take a look at any rates charts or any long duration bond etf chart (TLT, EDV, ZROZ) - they all look terrible and the reaction to news has been lackluster. Yields could not go materially lower from a mini banking crisis and we are now back to the highs in yields erasing the crisis altogether. Lance is totally on the wrong side of the trade, and if he is putting 50% of his portfolio in long duration bonds, he is in for a world of pain for the next 12 months. I'm not sure if he will breakeven within 36 months, even with a recession happening. Yields don't collapse in an inflationary recession, they go sideways or go down a small amount, before they ratchet much higher in the recovery phase.
@@FierceFurious being early and being wrong is the same thing. If you’re too early, you give up all the potential upside and just try to break even, or worse you don’t survive the journey and sell before the payoff due to risk managing a badly losing position
@@reddragon2604 Lance has been wrong for a year. This channel has provided some of the worst advice on TH-cam under the guise of building "wealth". If you wanted you build wealth you should have been long for the 40% AI and tech rally
investing because of passive income flows is a terrible investing thesis. The fact he said this confidently makes me worry. Already switched off from his thoughts. nevertheless, i'll listen further with a pinch of salt. Potentially could be time to be very take some profits.
gold is up over 500 percent is the last 20 years, What's not to like. in 2004 gold was 400usd, it at about 2000 now, and will continue to move up. average 25 percent per year
That cold shower...I once missed the nail and hit my finger with that hammer, mind you I didn't get blood blister, but it still hurt. Once the pain subsided it felt good too. I remember thinking at the time how strange and maybe I was self -sadistic. Lol
Adam is the best host on finance YT.
Everybody love Adams, not Lance
He is an excellent host
@@joechan8549I love Lance! Lance you have ONE fan
Best host if you like to watch a curated list of financial experts who have been completely wrong about the 2023 markets
@@luisdetomaso867 LOL I'm sympathetic to your sentiment, I even got a laugh from it. However, I'm not aware of anyone who got things right in 2023, and even if someone did, we still have more than four months to go. Please tell us who has been right so far. In my opinion, the markets have demonstrated unprecedented schizophrenia this year.
Yes, the visuals / charts are helpful. Thanks, Adam & Lance. Always get a lot of value from your weekly wrap-ups.
Great that you shouted out to Huberman! And thanks to Lance for his knowledge. I learn so much from both of you.
Lance always teaches me something new about the market with every weekly recap! Kudos to you, Adam, for asking great questions and Lance for his candid, lucid answers.
The privately owned large residential home builder my kiddo got laid off from last fall in KC is now having much worse problems I hear. Everyone that works for them is looking for a job. Maybe the home builders in a fairly stable market are starting to crack now. Let’s hope. They have some of their multi family units over priced by at least 40% and 2800 sq ft single family still at $420 starting. It’s so ridiculous to pay that. I just got that update in the past 2 days. They have a real mess on their hands. Was a strong company before the inflation spiking and rates as well
Adam you are a class act!!
Very insightful video. The segment on the bond outlook starting at about minute 56 is rather profound. The million dollar question is "how does the yield curve steepening take place?". Lance has doubled down on both the long end and the short end declining when the FED pivots. What happens if the vigilantes show up and as the short end declines the long end rises? I monitor Simplevisor which is currently at about 20% treasuries most of which are TLT. If Lance's portfolio looks anything like Simplevisor's then I would be concerned, a bond position approaching 40% will create problems with your sleep routine. Good luck.
Jim
Been listening to Lance for so many years ,as I live outside of Houston . Love the charts and his calm , related approach toward investing .
Funny thing Adam it’s not just old people watching your videos, I am 28 and watch your videos daily 😁
Excellent show gentleman. I learned a lot.
Lance - now is a great entry point for APPL.
🤔 trading at 30x earnings, Fed continuing to hike, inverted yield curve, consumer tapped out. I’ll pass.
Hey Lance, how's that long position you took in TLT in March working out for you?
He just said he doubled down, yes he was early in march but no one can be perfect with getting in on the bottom.
@@larryjoe1357 One can make a very strong case that yields on the 20 and 30 year bonds will not see a "3 handle" again for the remainder of Lance's natural life. From 1977 until 2011, the yield on the 30yr bond was 4% or higher (with the exception of 5 months in 08/09 and 3 months in 2010). If the Fed achieves 2% annual inflation, then the Treasury will have to offer a premium over 2% to bond purchasers in order to provide a positive real rate of return. I would expect that premium to be at least 2% in order provide a return over inflation and to compensate for duration risk. So that's a 4% yield and that's probably a best case scenario, given that the fiscal deficits of the US Govt are going to increase exponentially and buyers are going to demand higher yields to compensate for increasing risk.
I don't understand when Lance says Apple's revenue hasn't grown in years, he did not show any chart either. I checked annual revenue for Apple: 2022: $394,328M, 2021: $365,817M, 2020: $274,515, 2019: $260,174M, 2010: $65,225M. Between 2021 & 2022, this is a 7% growth!
CVS Health: 2022: $322,467M, 2021:$292,111, a growth of 10%.
However, when you look at Net Income, APPLE for 2021 9.4M, grew to 9.8M in 2022: a growth of 5%.
CVS: net income 4.1M in 2022, 7.9M in 2021, declined by 48%!!!! Hence, the stock is down.
Do your own research.
He didn’t say that. He said its growth doesn’t justify its earnings/sales multiple.
And its revenue is decelerating in 2023, so prior years are not the whole story.
@@GrantLeeEdwards he said Apple’s revenue has been going down for years. Even otherwise, revenue is growing. Of course for a company this size, it won’t always be growing at 10% each year
@@meesi7053 You are incorrect. Go back & watch it. 6:00 or so.
He’s talking about Apple’s revenue growth, & he says it doesn’t support the current price. Which is true. But it’s a huge part of weighted indexes like SPY and QQQ and XLK, hence “you gotta own it.”
He isn’t a moron & wouldn’t say that Apple’s revenue keeps falling YOY. That deceleration applies to 2023.
I just checked CVS P/E on google and it said it's 32.87 not 7 like Lance said. Can you explain pls
He's talking about forward PE and you're seeing trailing twelve months (TTM).
As a tax cpa, I just want to correct lances comments about the erc. A company doesn’t need to lose money to qualify. They simply needed to have a decline in revenue or been shut down due to state or local government mandates. There were a lot of profitable companies who qualified for the credit who simply manipulated the timing of recognizing their revenue.
One important note though is the irs extended the statute of limitations from 3 years to 10 years. The irs is going to have 10 years to challenge these credits and people will eventually get hammered
Adam and Lance weekly market recap is the best show on USA stock markets. It is indeed very comprehensive and well balanced from technical and fundamental perspective. Keep up the good work your discussion and analysis is really very helpful in formulating investment strategy.
What a viewers need is a time machine. You have a thesis, you bring on guests who argue for that thesis, then when it doesn't work out you give a detailed analysis of why it didn't work out! Use our time machine to go back and reverse our position or take one. Keep up your track record Adam and they will call you "Jim Cramer, Jr."
Lance is a really talented analyst. I love hearing his thoughts and how he puts things together. I love hearing about his long term thesis.
Excellent comment 1:01:10 mark re: Why and How Interest rates will in all probability come down - as Central Banks will Buy Bonds
Think Lance lost his way in explaining the flat tax idea. He just finished telling how a dollar is taxed multiple times as it changes hands. Then he suggested that is the reason for the flat tax idea. Problem is, that flat taxed dollar still becomes taxable income to the next recipient. Just sayin'.
Yes. And a flat tax is regressive and punishes those who have less
@@johngalt7465 A poor person needs all they make to meet basic needs. A rich person only needs a small portion of what they make to meet basic needs. Taxing them both at the same rate is unethical. In addition, poor people put their income back into the economy because they have to spend it to survive. Not so the rich person, who slows down the velocity of money by hoarding it.
Pullback?? What a joke. This is not a pullback. S&P 4100/4200...thats a pull back
If you start with a warm shower and slowly go down to the coldest setting over a few min, it’s not that bad. Then stay on the coldest level for 30-40sec Try it, and you’ll love it. Great for the muscles, body and spirit. You have to tell the mind to do things it doesn’t want to do. This is the discipline muscle.
I am impressed how Lance has been right about the bulmarket and the timing this year. Congratulations
Yes, love the screen sharing - the graphs are really good and tell the story quite well.
I'm one of those first time home buyers on the sideline. I have an above average household income, and I can't afford houses at this level even with a large down payment. The prices are absurdly high. The prices also rose 30-40% during the pandemic when cash buyers were wiping us first time buyers out. I've given up. I can't compete. Its much cheaper to rent than buy for now.
It’s saddest and most maddening thing that has happened due to the pandemic. First time buyers are screwed and who knows if that’ll ever change. We need a fairly deep recession and a ton of layoffs in order to change the housing matrix in my opinion. And less stimulus as well. The economy is totally manipulated by govt and congress. Selling SPR reserves to manipulate. Sending companies billions in payroll tax relief weekly while the avg employee takes in the rear. Quite a little game being played about the avg American
@johnunderwood8131 due to the money printing and fed buying of mortgage bonds through 2021. Let's be clear. They always have an excuse, pandemic or otherwise. Powell doesn't even have an economics degree. He sells.snake oil.
Time to make bank in the U.S. and move to Russia, EU, Dubai, Singapore, etc to live - the most overpowered combo
It can be extremely frustrating waiting for this everything bubble to pop and help bring real estate back to its normal levels but be encouraged...its going to happen...it always has and hopefully we will see this in 2024. I'm in a similar position although I'm not a first time buyer and I'm renting in an expensive area (Bend, OR.) and hate seeing rent money being flushed down the toilet. I ran my own company for 37 years and recently retired and experienced these recessions over the years and real estate always reverted back to the mean.
This channel has been wrong for a year missing the 40% AI rally and now when the market makes a healthy 5% consolidation pull back, they claim it's "as expected"
According to recession definition we have been in one from several months ago already. What you may been saying is that consumer spending isn't finished yet, but that is only due to the fact that they still have credit and a very few still are depleting their savings. This doesn't mean we aren't in a recession.
Thanks always Adam brother !
And of course Lance !
4:17 Where does he get a PE near 7 for CVS Health? I see over 24, far from 7!
I think I just answered my own question with forward vs trailing PE ratios. There’s probably some rosy scenario earnings forecast out there projecting significant growth.
Deflation was looming in 2019, even with ZIRP. Are we in a better situation now?
Great job with the charts Adam!👍
One of the things that I really would like to see more of on Wealthion is that you ask for specific opinions about what your guests think are the best investment strategies for average people to use how they should adjust as time goes on, etc. I really would like to see you keep doing that. Then people can collect and weigh the opinions of dozens and dozens of these analysts. Its also good to have them come back to update their opinions on investment strategy
The more you adjust your strategy, the more likely you are to get it wrong because you are effectively trying to time the market. Pick a strategy you believe in, do your homework, and stick to it. If you are really concerned about that strategy's long-term potential, use multiple accounts with different strategies for each. And weight each according to your belief in its long term prospects and your ability to execute on those strategies.
Disney earnings shows clearly in my opinion consumer spending trend is in decline. As people cut spending ending subscriptions. What puzzles me is does Disney really think increasing prices is a good move. It'll just give a reminder for more people to cancel subscription but whatever.
Disney has been alienating their customers with the woke stuff.
I agree. Most people are definitely feeling the pinch and some in a large way, and the first thing Disney does is raise their prices. Maybe they have to to keep profitable I don’t know. Either way I can definitely see demand going down for them.
You two always help me understand things one level higher!
Like little pieces of a bug puzzle coming together
I really appreciate you both so much
Thank you!
TLT trade had sucked big time.
I enjoy the charts. I’m a visual person. It helps with the cometary
I understand the momentum dynamic Lance is talking about with passive indexing however, this mechanic works inversely in a downturn. This should be considered in terms of risk.
the issue with housing is the investor group if the transaction cost was like stocks u would see more inventory. THe homebuilders (the pros) is using the 1st mover advantage
Lance, it's the first time I hear you talk about changes in the allocation of your personal portfolio. I don't know if it is possible but it'd be great to have more visibility and updates on your personal allocations (at least on the stuff that we can also invest in), rather than updates on the model portfolio you run for your clients since this is influenced by so many factors. I'm asking because, just like you, I have a long term investment horizon and am not benchmarking myself vs the S&P500 or the MSCI world. Thanks!
Thanks guys! 👍
while doin my own charts i was thinkin,,,hope Lance can keep it clean and on topic today,,,good to see you two back at it
When talking about bonds, it’s important to state whether you mean owning a bond etf or owning individual bonds to hold to maturity. People can get good yield on a short term treasury right now but the bond ETF’s are languishing. When the Fed starts reducing rates, the bond etfs will become bullish (rising share price) while the yield on individual bonds will become less attractive. So it would be helpful if you could clarify what you mean when you talk about “investing in bonds.”
"When the Fed starts reducing rates, the bond etfs will become bullish, while the return on individual bonds will become less attractive" You need to explain this statement. The 20 year bond has a yield significantly higher than TLT, because the net yield on TLT is reduced by bonds purchased when yields were much lower. If the Fed starts to cut rates, I would rather own the bonds than TLT because they have a higher yield and therefore greater potential for capital appreciation (premium over my initial investment when sold).
@@billybudapest3129 When interest rates start dropping, the share price of TLT and other bond funds will rise. So you can make $ through capital appreciation of those shares, even as the yield is small. I think it’s fairly easy to sell an individual treasury bill/note/bond but I have never done so. I don’t currently have any duration higher than 2 years, but I expect to look at some longer durations soon.
Are people buy individual treasury bonds or TLT. Is there a difference?
There are advantages and disadvantages for both. Lance recently mentioned he was buying TLT for long term bonds. I like the ETFs such as TLT as you can sell quickly if you need to. You can still sell individual bonds as well but a little more complicated. I recently bought TBIL through Charles Schwab for short term bonds and will probably buy TLT or TMF for long term bonds soon. I’m not advising you on want to do as I’m not a financial adviser. I hope this helps.
He was right about the pullback! I used to take his advice with a pinch of salt but that has really enhanced my respect and loyalty for him.
He said "5-10%" before the end of the year." We've pulled back 3%. Not impressive.
Loyalty. Sweet. So he handles your investments.
,hyt
@@user-fc7ce1ls2jtu are 56:31 u
@@scottpi729who said the correction is over?
Min34. An episode on the FairTax or possible interview with Steve Hayes would be great. FT eliminates capital gains tax and corporate tax(that is always passed onto the consumer embedded into the cost of the product). The worker receives the missing 23% of their paycheck and broadens the tax base through a sales that leaves necessities untaxed via the prebate
When do we ever hear about these guys losing? Never trust a guy that doesn't ever talk about losses.
Appreciate the visual aids!
The charts explain everything. There is no way out.
Another great show!
Take the cap off SS is a good start 😊 to reduce the debt.
Yes! Excellent suggestion
The market pullback they talked about seems to be happening as they predicted. It's like how they mentioned the hot Texas summers - sometimes things get tough, but we keep going!
dollar may be taxed over and over but corpporations are paying less taxes so are billionaires
Last year in Britain, the bond market revolted on the Guilt. So I ask the question ; Are we really 30 years away from seeing something like that in America?
In UK most govt money is now being spent on consumption/state wages & pensions not investment - not that govt should be even trying to pick winners. But it would be nice to cycle, walk or drive more than 5 yards without encountering a pot hole!!!
The yield curve has never been wrong Lancey
John Neff or Chuck Akre would be a good interview for long term investing.
Thank you for the insights
Lance, are you still bullish on TLT? I'm down bad.
I lost on that recommendation too
I just bought in at 93.99 which is at a near 20 yr. low hope to do well from here or maybe a little more downside which I would buy more. when did you get in I hope you re-coup your investment.
@@ocox8659 Maybe you lost because you sold too early.
This python is seriously constipated. We need to feed it with some serious laxatives so that we can all finally make money, improve our lives and turn the world into a happy place. These politicians are really specialising in busting my balls. P.S. great show.
I fully agree with Lance on TLT trade. Considering the amount of debts in the system and the likelihood of a recession in the next 1-3 years, long term yields can only come down. I increased my TLT position significantly last week as well knowing that in short term I might lose but long term, the outcome is inevitable for me as this economy and the system with so much debts can’t afford higher interest rates in mid and long term.
These guys are trading on short term volatility while I look at the 18-24 month horizon…I don’t think you can time this if you want to invest long term in TLT.
So what are you saying, that is exactly what Lance is saying you can't time this that is why he doubled his position now. TLT is a a near 20 yr. low it seems now is a good time to buy and sit.@@umutcam3152
Big money vanished from the stock market 2 weeks ago. They didn't go to treasuries, gold, Bitcoin or defensives. They are just hoarding cash and waiting for SPY 430 to come in and swoop at low prices.
They may be in for a nasty surprise, though. Credit markets are freezing up and the banking crisis will return in September. 10 yr yield is fast approaching 4.5%. They may find their ability to manipulate the market is limited.
You seem to be very certain, I'm assuming you've loaded up on puts then.
I wonder how many will buy large amounts of land...
@@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods there is no certainty in the stock market. Doing debit put spreads rather than straight out puts: much better risk/reward balance when IV is low and market is dull.
@@Agooo13431 If there is no certainty, then why do write things like "there *will* be a banking crisis"? You are *probably* wrong
@@luisdetomaso867 I believe there will be a banking crisis in September. Better now?
Lance is a genius! We need to tax dollars not economic activity, and once a dollar has been taxed once it can never be taxed again. We’ll probably need to put expiration dates on dollars though or things may get out of hand…
I found little to no value in this discussion in support of helping me make short term investment decisions. However, this conversation helps one better understand what is taking place socially and financially in the background that helps me make better life and investment decisions going forward. Thanks
If you followed Wealthion's advice in 2023, you missed the biggest stock rally in decades. Adam has been wrong for almost a year
Lance Dance!
Thank you very much...
People keep saying "look at Japan - no inflation!" Well, I run a hard asset company and I deal to Japanese dealers. They are voracioulsy buying every type of hard asset because they don't trust their own currency. I can't keep enough stock to supply their demand. Also, they have a homogenous society so they don't have the same ethnic problems we do, so you don't see the massive resentments we see here. But when we become like Japan , and it is hapenning, it will be much more corrosive here than it is there. And the inflation is there whether or not your official gauges measure it.
You are 100% right. There is no way the next 30 years of the United States will be a duplicate of the last 30 of Japan. Our cultures are markets are totally different . The financial and political problems facing the United States in 2025, no comparison to Japan’s 1990.
i liked the phrase war time economy in peace time. gt video. keep it up. stay safe and enjoyweek end
Well we’re paying for the war.
I would not call shoveling military hardware and billions into the Ukraine war "peace time" economy.
What about if rates dont go down ? They will but only if government stop spending , dont think tlt its food play now , but in a 6-8 mo maybe
I believe Lance is assuming a can opener exists when it most likely doesn't.
Government spending on infrastructure definitely has a multiplier effect on the economy. I’m surprised Lance didn’t mention that.
Agree. Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS will pump $Trillions into the economy, mostly into Wall Street stonks. No recession in sight between fiscal money from DC and the Fed's failure to raise rates high enough.
YUP,.. Buy the "Dips", is STILL,.. a good idea !
Employee Retention Program not only paid the employer but those employees also got stimi checks. Why both?
did he just say 'lower levels of production lead to less inflation'???
The housing price thing is really hard to say because there are entire new waves of households forming all the time that want a house. If there’s pent up demand for household formations buying a house you get a situation where the marginal home price could be going up.
"There will be a flood of people selling homes when rates go down" logic would tell us higher rates have kept people on the sidelines who will want to buy when rates drop and have we forgotten when you sell a house you still need somewhere to live?? Its not about rates its only about inventory.
Lance thanks for introducing your personal exposure to bonds. I have the same opinion and am laddered in CD's and Treasuries. If rates keep going up I will benefit by investing the maturing CD's in the higher returning bonds. If rates go down I will benefit with the locked in longer term bonds. Nice to see you personally reflect my investing philosophy. I also have a purchasing power of the Dollar hedge by investing 25% of my portfolio in PSLV. I am 69 and do not want risk but just portfolio protection against the overspending with the government deficits.
Gentleman 👍
Thanks Adam and Lance for another great interview and weekly update. I appreciate your perspective and comments Adam on things that are particularly annoying like tax structure, US debt for example and how out of balance our government is.
There are many corporations that are pass through corporations, so the income is put on their personal tax return and taxed there, not on the corporate return. So taxes are being paid by the Corp, just not on a Corp return, so that will lower the amount of total taxes paid by all corps lower.. by a lot. There are pass through corps as small as your local dentist or lawyer up to large companies with many employees.
‘We have a relatively simple tax set up, we have our joint taxes and a few businesses’ girl.. how is that simple
I live in Texas, and the coldest setting is now only at luke warm.
The further the markets go down, the faster they will do so. I certainly hope Lance Roberts has reconsidered purchasing NVDA in this "healthy pullback".
What are the consquences the goverment buying its own debt massivly? Lose of purchesing power???
He said he is a fundamental guy and Apple is overvalued but CVS is undervalued based up on their P/E and P/S. When I look at their P/E, Apple has 29.93 and CVS has 34.65. How is that explained? How come he can tell just by looking at their PE and PS???
The problem is we stripped all the manufacturing (high value add) jobs out of the country. This resulted in a huge segment of the population being unable to pay for their needs - before and after retirement. So, we’ve ended up with a massive and permanent welfare roll.
Corporations - mostly - are efficient with their dollars. If they don’t pay taxes, they create jobs and those people pay taxes and don’t take from the system in welfare, etc. Thanks Lance. I keep saying that corporations shouldn’t have to pay taxes or very little but they should have to have a lot of their business here.
“Don’t sell!” “Don’t you sell!” 👍 Lol
I have own AAPL because of its weight?
I always look forward to Lance's weekly updates instead of listening to animal spirits on Twitter.
Lance, if you want to get a good company’s employee plan, my wife works for PPG and while the benefits and matching is all good, the funds of their 401k choices suck. You can’t even put your money into a MM or Treasury only fund. All bond funds mix corporate and government - I don’t want corporate bonds right now. I want a place to store cash, make interest and wait for a pullback before buying. We can’t. We can only sit and lose money. Don’t use my name.
I’m only 11 mins in to this so far and LMAO at the metaphors 😂🤣😂
Just curious, why always the same blue polo? Consistency? Convenience? Intense hatred for all other colors?
Marketing!
Interesting video. Personally would have liked more on the markets/ stocks this week as proportionally there was a lot less on this versus topics like fiscal policy, government deficit, taxes, fraud issues, etc. Thanks.
Passive index fund investing weighted portfolio allocations is fundamentally based on employment & 401K contributions
Got some $AAPL ahead of dividends date but my 401k plan allows us to buy $FAZ, $SQQQ, & $BOIL for when the market's ED blue pill wears off.
What happens when USD/JPY threatens to touch 150? Bank of Japan is not an economic model worth following as they are just useful greedy bastards (definitely not idiots) who launder inflation & oil suppression via currency manipulation. It's not exactly subtle where inflation has gone.
Look at $SVIX, $UVIX, $CL & USD/MXN. Recession cometh.
If you take a look at any rates charts or any long duration bond etf chart (TLT, EDV, ZROZ) - they all look terrible and the reaction to news has been lackluster. Yields could not go materially lower from a mini banking crisis and we are now back to the highs in yields erasing the crisis altogether. Lance is totally on the wrong side of the trade, and if he is putting 50% of his portfolio in long duration bonds, he is in for a world of pain for the next 12 months. I'm not sure if he will breakeven within 36 months, even with a recession happening. Yields don't collapse in an inflationary recession, they go sideways or go down a small amount, before they ratchet much higher in the recovery phase.
@@FierceFurious being early and being wrong is the same thing. If you’re too early, you give up all the potential upside and just try to break even, or worse you don’t survive the journey and sell before the payoff due to risk managing a badly losing position
@@reddragon2604 Lance has been wrong for a year. This channel has provided some of the worst advice on TH-cam under the guise of building "wealth". If you wanted you build wealth you should have been long for the 40% AI and tech rally
investing because of passive income flows is a terrible investing thesis. The fact he said this confidently makes me worry. Already switched off from his thoughts. nevertheless, i'll listen further with a pinch of salt. Potentially could be time to be very take some profits.
“401k isn’t a big part of the market” he just dismissed the entire middle class
gold is up over 500 percent is the last 20 years, What's not to like. in 2004 gold was 400usd, it at about 2000 now, and will continue to move up. average 25 percent per year
LOOK TO SEE HOW MUCH GOLD HAS GONE UP IN TEN YEARS? NOT SO MUCH
Trump was/is a Master at NEVER EVER paying taxes!
That cold shower...I once missed the nail and hit my finger with that hammer, mind you I didn't get blood blister, but it still hurt. Once the pain subsided it felt good too. I remember thinking at the time how strange and maybe I was self -sadistic. Lol