This guy unveiled scientific facts and figures n people called him all sorts of names, am sure people will start taking what he says seriously.... numbers don't lie.
the guy told u but u mocked him . now his ghost haunts the cord. 6.2 was his number and the real figure is about that .sema geniuos .this guy never lets me down .big up msee .
What about the 8000 votes by which Uhuru garnered the +1 margin? How do we know they were worn fairly considering that the elections had several irregularities.
This why Muthai is my preferred analyst. There is no biasness in his work. People need to know the truth and the truth ought to be known! Thanks Ngunyi
....cont Kikuyus form the third largest chunk after the Kalenjins. Laikipia and Nakuru (I am counting Naivasha as part of Nakuru) are exclusively inhabited by the Agikuyu. Ruto probably didnt deliver 64% of the RVP vote because the is a sizeable population of Luhyas too who probably followed Mudavadi. That said, Ruto delivered over 90 % of the Kalenjin votes to Raila. Uhuru only needs 60% (of the Kalenjin vote) to win in round one
His hypothesis is right in my view . . the population of one sub tribe of kikuyu is larger than the entire Muslim community so to kalenjin's sub tribes ..from there do the math
Compelling argument - I think this is a solid analysis Mr. Ngunyi's, as long as his assumptions - that people will vote along ethnic lines at 100% voter turn out - are correct.
Relativity >> Quantum mechanics >> The logic of probability approached via mathematical science... Kenya keeps coming up with very rich wits, we have us a 'modern-day' prophet here
Mr. Ngunyi never gave an opinion of his own, he gave the silent, submerged indication by the IEBC through a purely scientific analysis of IEBC records. It's pure probability case here. He is not tribal neither biased, just the best at what he does, just a great political scientist who understands how to separate his personal emotions from science . Many so called political scientists should actually borrow a leaf from this guy and that includes Prof. Oloo, with all due respect.
Why are CORD supporters quick to dismiss Ngunyi's analysis??They know very well since the inception of multi party politics in Kenya,voting has always been along tribal lines.This is a reality you can't ram away from.It won't be any different this election
Raila has always lost. Those who dont want to accept the loss, call it rigging. kwani he has not had agents who would speak up? Besides ,Kriegler report said both Jubilee and ODM rigged!
Kenya has changed.that's just about it,its sad that people are still intertwined in negative ethnicity politics but then again it has to do with your level of education...
Can his critics show themselves please! This man predicted the outcome of the elections while they were sleeping. I think cord should petition Mr. Mutahi to come and explain to the supreme court as to how he was able to be spot on with the numbers on jubilee's win? Don't waste money on your lawyers he is your answer right here bwana Odinga. As for his critics stand up and salute this man cause he put you all to shame.
hehe, this was soo good. ur enemy push u to the winning lyn God live long our prezo. Mutahi try to advice Raila but he could't listrn. he hes trust on icc when on the othr hand Uhuru put his trust to God. uhuru said "There's God in heaven" Raila said " There's ICC n UN" Huhuhu
Even 2002 of Moi regime went down to Kibaki who campaigned for Him is Raila.if Kanu has accepted to support Amollo then Jubilee by eight months they will b jome
I was thinking about the same thinking. They need to go to Western to maximise their chances. Also, Eastern (Kamba dominated areas), Maasai land and Kisii region. That is where they need to pick up votes to get them over the hurdle.
Mydunda, As a son of the Rift Valley, let me tell you this; The Rift Valley is not exclusively inhabited by Kalenjins the way Central is by the Agikuyu. there are Luhyas, Turkanas, Samburus and Kikuyus among others. Kikuyus form the second largest chunk after the Kalenjins. ......cont .
Do you still want me to take that class on the difference between prediction and stating facts of law? I may not differentiate the words but I know the result when I see it, I just needed to wait for two weeks!
Yeah i remember him saying just two months ago, "Mudavadi has been handed the presidency on a silver platter" I wonder what we should believe from this guy. . .
None of the two front running coalitions are my favourite. But I would be cautious to call Mutahi's bluff. He is actually telling the "naked king" the truth. He's actually helping Raila whereas Raila's strategists are deluding him as they have always done. If I were Raila I would give call serious emergency re-strategizing meeting.
The tyranny of numbers only refers to registered voters and it can favor any party, in nyanza, and mombasa county cord is supreme, in nairobi, central and RV jubilee is supreme.
Raila will only win in 3provinces;Western,Nyanza and Coast.Nairobi and North Eastern will be 50/50 for Jubilee and CORD.Jubilee will carry Central,Rift Valley and Eastern.Jubilee will carry Eastern because it has the control of 5 out of the 8 counties in Eastern.CORD has the remaining 3;Kitui,Makueni and Machakos.In 2007,Kibaki beat Kalonzo in Eastern.Furthermore,Kambas have historically posted low voter turnouts on previous elections.Wont be any different this time round
1:CORD/Raila only has control of 3 counties in Eastern(Machakos,Makueni and Kitui).The remaining 5counties are in control of Jubilee(Meru,Embu,Tharaka Nithi,Isiolo and Marsabit).2.Kambas have historically in previous elections posted low voter turnouts;63-65%.In fact in 2007 Kalonzo got 600,000votes out of a possible 950,000 registered voters in Ukambani.If they posted such low turnouts when one of their own was a presidential candidate,what about now when Kalonzo wants them to vote for Raila?
I agree with your numbers.... further i project that uhuru will win nairobi by 48% raila will get 40% to 44% already sonko and shabesh are leading by by over 55%, the governors race is to close to call. What i don't understand is why jubilee is not campaigning in western? they can cut railas lead by at least 10%... they are wasting time campaigning in nyanza when they should be in western.
Does Adams Oloo have any students that he tutors? Political science has a lot of predictions and assumptions but the guy can't bring himself to making assumptions and predictions. I pity them. Seriously!
.....of course you know who lives in Kiambu Mr. omondi. On the contrary, there ar other areas like Kalonzo's region (and as Mutahi tells us, Nyanza) that under performed. These are Raila's/Kalonzo's strongholds. That is where the 2 million CORD number is coming from as opposed to Jubilee's 4 million. Omondi, it is ARITHMETIC. CORD slept during the registration drive. JUBILEE worked their backs off. The election was won- by Uhuru on Dec. 18, when the IEBC closed the voter register.
Very god advice. He is telling some truth not the real truth. Nevertheless, I think RAO supporters should take him seriously. Don't forget he said Musalia has won, and was very wrong on that.. now he is seeing he is losing and changing tunes. I think Uhuru may well win this election but I don't think we can be very sure about that for now. There are are just over 14 million voters, and 6 million is just less that half assuming the two tribes vote 100% Uhuruto. But he is a bit right..
with all those proffessors??? well done mutahi even in court all those lawyers will see dust!!!! they have mis advised agwambo thoughout his life that he will be president.. pity
Yeah, Raila must get rid of charlatans and half baked quacks like adams oloo and angela ambitho as his advisors. This two chaps have really messed him up!
raila is like a small kid that has been bullied , we dont need a president who needs sympathy i will cast my vote for uhuru although i am not a kikuyu nor a kalenjin i am casting a vote believing of a better kenya and uhuru is the man .......uhuru akianguka tutaanguka pamoja
Mutahi Ngunyi was right about Mudavadi being the next president.It all would have happened if Uhuru had kept his agreement with Mudavadi.CORD should ignore his predictions at their own peril.This election will be a ICC protest vote.The Kikuyus/Kalenjins will vote in large numbers to show their dissatisfaction with a flawed process instigated by their common enemy Raila
i disagree with Mutahi on the issue of registration. The jubilee feared a fair competition and chose to scheme unfairly to 'steal' the election victory i advance..If jubilee had the numbers to win this elections, who then can explain the shortage of voters registration kits in Nyanza, lower eastern (except kitui central), coast , north rift and parts of kajiado & narok?..why did the kits delay miserably in these areas yet the time for voter registration was so limited?...why ? why? why?
That's because the Kikuyu vote, which forms a considerable chunk of the remaining 35%, went to Kibaki. And it's no rocket science predicting where this vote will go this time around
It only proves that the rest of the country feels colonized by "some" community. Frankly speaking all colonial eras come to an end. History has an interesting way on how colonial eras end
He predicted that Kibaki would be the president beyond January 2013 and guess what Kibaki is still the president. He also predicted that elections will be not be held in 2012 August guess what we are doing in 2013. He predicted Kogey and Ali will escape the ICC indictment.
Kind of reminds me of game of thrones, we have a king of the opressed and a king of the "mornachy".... Atleast RAO delivered a constitution to protect the "minority".
Polls said Mwakwere was 3rd he won the Matuga by-election, polls said Sonko was trailing, he won the Makadara seat, so don't hang your hats on the pollsters numbers, as some have argued Kenya's unique demographic makes it impossible to conduct an accurate poll using the western approach. History though cannot be ignored, what Kenyans have been doing since 1963 will repeat itself, people will vote in ethnic blocs. You might be in for a surprise come March 5th
![Jeff Koinange Live with Professor Mutahi Ngunyi 7th April 2016 [Part 1]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/eyaqTrz3GAg/mqdefault.jpg)
![Jeff Koinange Live with Professor Mutahi Ngunyi 7th April 2016 [Part 1]](/img/tr.png)
9 yrs later and this still rings true!!
I never get tired of this!!
Mutahi ngunyi is a true analyst.he is smart
Thank You Ngunyi, Your analysis was a perfect score!.
I HAVE WATCHED THIS SO MANY TIMES
Mutahi You are my man!!!! I believed you then, when you called this for Uhuru!!!. Mutahi you are the man!!
This guy unveiled scientific facts and figures n people called him all sorts of names, am sure people will start taking what he says seriously.... numbers don't lie.
When I grow up, I want to have that depth of understanding of my career.
I love that...
Kenneth Mwangi mutahi ngunyi was wrong. jubilee had to rig elections in 2013. simple truth
It's unbelievable how he thought that up, but its absolutely tragic as to how right he is.
the guy told u but u mocked him . now his ghost haunts the cord. 6.2 was his number and the real figure is about that .sema geniuos .this guy never lets me down .big up msee .
What about the 8000 votes by which Uhuru garnered the +1 margin? How do we know they were worn fairly considering that the elections had several irregularities.
Am here in 2021 to analyze 2022
Chuka University should award Ngunyi an honorary Doctorate on Tyranny of numbers!
there is no other word but briliant i like
I love the analysis of this man. long live prof Mutahi ngunyi.
Mutahi's words always come to pass... We appreciate you
should we still watch this space?
In this Mutahi Ngunyi was spot on
On point... Compare the 6.2 million he predicted and the numbers garnered in the election which was 6,173,433. This guy was damn accurate..
I always enjoy listening on to this analysis and especially now after the outcome, RAO slept in the Job..
WOW!!!! This guy was spot on great job.
you are a genius,i like your analysis
This why Muthai is my preferred analyst. There is no biasness in his work. People need to know the truth and the truth ought to be known! Thanks Ngunyi
I love that he is not biased as well. Mutahi videos are quite informative
True..numbers matter..and that is what is determining a win. Jubilee's victory is inevitable
brilliant man. he saw all this coming
He has outlived his usefulness.
Mutahi was damn accurate!!
....cont
Kikuyus form the third largest chunk after the Kalenjins.
Laikipia and Nakuru (I am counting Naivasha as part of Nakuru) are exclusively inhabited by the Agikuyu.
Ruto probably didnt deliver 64% of the RVP vote because the is a sizeable population of Luhyas too who probably followed Mudavadi.
That said, Ruto delivered over 90 % of the Kalenjin votes to Raila. Uhuru only needs 60% (of the Kalenjin vote) to win in round one
Mutahi, you were right. This is a LANDSLIDE victory!
The Ghost of Mutahi Ngunyi comes back to haunt the Cordashians ...
I guess I should say, Thank you Annan
Omondi,
You say that Jubilee is largely up of only two communities; the Kalenjins and the Gikuyus.
I hope you are including the Aembu amd the Ameru.
His hypothesis is right in my view . . the population of one sub tribe of kikuyu is larger than the entire Muslim community so to kalenjin's sub tribes ..from there do the math
So, basically we have a tribal oligarchy - not democracy.
That's exactly the point!
Compelling argument - I think this is a solid analysis Mr. Ngunyi's, as long as his assumptions - that people will vote along ethnic lines at 100% voter turn out - are correct.
nice work mutahi ngunyi
Relativity >> Quantum mechanics >> The logic of probability approached via mathematical science... Kenya keeps coming up with very rich wits, we have us a 'modern-day' prophet here
Yep I agree with u ngunyi jubilee are gonna win
Lucy Njoki that's a pipe dream
Ngunyi ana ukweli ni doo ndio unatengeneze kwani wewe ni mungu usha jua mwenye atashinda muwache ukabila
Prophet Ngunyi you really deserve a pat at the back tell Adams oloo to come to your class.
yes you are!
I agree with him largely because of the voting history of kenyans, the registered voters and the ever important likely voters..he is right folks.
Mr. Ngunyi never gave an opinion of his own, he gave the silent, submerged indication by the IEBC through a purely scientific analysis of IEBC records. It's pure probability case here. He is not tribal neither biased, just the best at what he does, just a great political scientist who understands how to separate his personal emotions from science . Many so called political scientists should actually borrow a leaf from this guy and that includes Prof. Oloo, with all due respect.
This man is great ! wish Raila listened to him.
Why are CORD supporters quick to dismiss Ngunyi's analysis??They know very well since the inception of multi party politics in Kenya,voting has always been along tribal lines.This is a reality you can't ram away from.It won't be any different this election
Just like Kalonzo denied Raila an outright victory in 2007,so will Mudavadi in 2013
the last election Rao lost fair n square was in 1997, from 2007 it has been rigging...
Raila has always lost. Those who dont want to accept the loss, call it rigging. kwani he has not had agents who would speak up? Besides ,Kriegler report said both Jubilee and ODM rigged!
He is a perennial loser.
Yes according to your lame thinking
Raila himself in 97 said he was rigged u telling us nothing
This is amazing! Mutahi nailed this thing! He was talking so self-assuredly and it came to pass... Awesome delivery.
Kenya has changed.that's just about it,its sad that people are still intertwined in negative ethnicity politics but then again it has to do with your level of education...
Absolutely correct
Jubilee's support is vast and mind you central people are reserved, they don't keep saying who they will vote for but its known its UK
I love this guy
Can his critics show themselves please! This man predicted the outcome of the elections while they were sleeping. I think cord should petition Mr. Mutahi to come and explain to the supreme court as to how he was able to be spot on with the numbers on jubilee's win? Don't waste money on your lawyers he is your answer right here bwana Odinga. As for his critics stand up and salute this man cause he put you all to shame.
Great
hehe, this was soo good. ur enemy push u to the winning lyn God live long our prezo.
Mutahi try to advice Raila but he could't listrn. he hes trust on icc when on the othr hand Uhuru put his trust to God.
uhuru said "There's God in heaven"
Raila said " There's ICC n UN" Huhuhu
trust God ,? a killer trust God ,he simply rigged himself to power
haiya tuseme nini....let the events unfold...tunawajua wenye hawakubali kushindwa
It appears this chap was right.
Even 2002 of Moi regime went down to Kibaki who campaigned for Him is Raila.if Kanu has accepted to support Amollo then Jubilee by eight months they will b jome
I was thinking about the same thinking. They need to go to Western to maximise their chances. Also, Eastern (Kamba dominated areas), Maasai land and Kisii region. That is where they need to pick up votes to get them over the hurdle.
Mydunda,
As a son of the Rift Valley, let me tell you this;
The Rift Valley is not exclusively inhabited by Kalenjins the way Central is by the Agikuyu. there are Luhyas, Turkanas, Samburus and Kikuyus among others.
Kikuyus form the second largest chunk after the Kalenjins.
......cont
.
Do you still want me to take that class on the difference between prediction and stating facts of law? I may not differentiate the words but I know the result when I see it, I just needed to wait for two weeks!
Fitahnz,
Should we still MARK YOUR WORDS?
where is the landslide. 500,000 while Coast and most of Nyanza are still out
Yeah i remember him saying just two months ago, "Mudavadi has been handed the presidency on a silver platter" I wonder what we should believe from this guy. . .
None of the two front running coalitions are my favourite. But I would be cautious to call Mutahi's bluff. He is actually telling the "naked king" the truth. He's actually helping Raila whereas Raila's strategists are deluding him as they have always done. If I were Raila I would give call serious emergency re-strategizing meeting.
Rao, start packing your bags and get ready to RETIRE to Bondo on March 5th!
The tyranny of numbers only refers to registered voters and it can favor any party, in nyanza, and mombasa county cord is supreme, in nairobi, central and RV jubilee is supreme.
Raila will only win in 3provinces;Western,Nyanza and Coast.Nairobi and North Eastern will be 50/50 for Jubilee and CORD.Jubilee will carry Central,Rift Valley and Eastern.Jubilee will carry Eastern because it has the control of 5 out of the 8 counties in Eastern.CORD has the remaining 3;Kitui,Makueni and Machakos.In 2007,Kibaki beat Kalonzo in Eastern.Furthermore,Kambas have historically posted low voter turnouts on previous elections.Wont be any different this time round
some cheeky reader flagged our 6 points below as spam :) , Click "show" to read them, they clarify what Mutahi got fundamentally wrong
game is over,lets wait for 2017
who tells u that?
1:CORD/Raila only has control of 3 counties in Eastern(Machakos,Makueni and Kitui).The remaining 5counties are in control of Jubilee(Meru,Embu,Tharaka Nithi,Isiolo and Marsabit).2.Kambas have historically in previous elections posted low voter turnouts;63-65%.In fact in 2007 Kalonzo got 600,000votes out of a possible 950,000 registered voters in Ukambani.If they posted such low turnouts when one of their own was a presidential candidate,what about now when Kalonzo wants them to vote for Raila?
I agree with your numbers.... further i project that uhuru will win nairobi by 48% raila will get 40% to 44% already sonko and shabesh are leading by by over 55%, the governors race is to close to call.
What i don't understand is why jubilee is not campaigning in western? they can cut railas lead by at least 10%... they are wasting time campaigning in nyanza when they should be in western.
He predicted that Jubilee will win and his ghost will haunt cord! It happened
Does Adams Oloo have any students that he tutors?
Political science has a lot of predictions and assumptions but the guy can't bring himself to making assumptions and predictions.
I pity them. Seriously!
do u remember???
.....of course you know who lives in Kiambu Mr. omondi.
On the contrary, there ar other areas like Kalonzo's region (and as Mutahi tells us, Nyanza) that under performed. These are Raila's/Kalonzo's strongholds.
That is where the 2 million CORD number is coming from as opposed to Jubilee's 4 million.
Omondi, it is ARITHMETIC.
CORD slept during the registration drive. JUBILEE worked their backs off.
The election was won- by Uhuru on Dec. 18, when the IEBC closed the voter register.
Very god advice. He is telling some truth not the real truth. Nevertheless, I think RAO supporters should take him seriously. Don't forget he said Musalia has won, and was very wrong on that.. now he is seeing he is losing and changing tunes. I think Uhuru may well win this election but I don't think we can be very sure about that for now. There are are just over 14 million voters, and 6 million is just less that half assuming the two tribes vote 100% Uhuruto. But he is a bit right..
with all those proffessors??? well done mutahi even in court all those lawyers will see dust!!!! they have mis advised agwambo thoughout his life that he will be president.. pity
Just to re-iterate Linc Sinc here, Mutahi was right on Musalia, had not Uhuru reneged on the deal on the last minute.
Yeah, Raila must get rid of charlatans and half baked quacks like adams oloo and angela ambitho as his advisors. This two chaps have really messed him up!
Welcome Back Mutahi Ngunyi!! Congratulations on your predictions sir! So when is Jesus Coming Back? Hehehe!
raila is like a small kid that has been bullied , we dont need a president who needs sympathy i will cast my vote for uhuru although i am not a kikuyu nor a kalenjin i am casting a vote believing of a better kenya and uhuru is the man .......uhuru akianguka tutaanguka pamoja
I also sit down sometimes and wonder where this guy Ngunyi did all his political degree.
I wonder what you have to say now. Numbers don't lie
Mutahi Ngunyi was right about Mudavadi being the next president.It all would have happened if Uhuru had kept his agreement with Mudavadi.CORD should ignore his predictions at their own peril.This election will be a ICC protest vote.The Kikuyus/Kalenjins will vote in large numbers to show their dissatisfaction with a flawed process instigated by their common enemy Raila
i disagree with Mutahi on the issue of registration. The jubilee feared a fair competition and chose to scheme unfairly to 'steal' the election victory i advance..If jubilee had the numbers to win this elections, who then can explain the shortage of voters registration kits in Nyanza, lower eastern (except kitui central), coast , north rift and parts of kajiado & narok?..why did the kits delay miserably in these areas yet the time for voter registration was so limited?...why ? why? why?
That's because the Kikuyu vote, which forms a considerable chunk of the remaining 35%, went to Kibaki. And it's no rocket science predicting where this vote will go this time around
FYI, am kikuyu and am NOT voting UHURU! Foooooooooooooooooooool
5:02 still relevant a decade later
It only proves that the rest of the country feels colonized by "some" community. Frankly speaking all colonial eras come to an end. History has an interesting way on how colonial eras end
I have always said that Raila wins opinion polls, Uhuru has the numbers.
He predicted that Kibaki would be the president beyond January 2013 and guess what Kibaki is still the president. He also predicted that elections will be not be held in 2012 August guess what we are doing in 2013. He predicted Kogey and Ali will escape the ICC indictment.
but not easy this time round
Is he really dead? I just saw a face book with the title "R.I. P MUTAHI NGINYI". My condolences.
....majority Kenyans vote tribally...and looking at it ...if the number of registered voters is anything to go by...this guy may have a point!
Kind of reminds me of game of thrones, we have a king of the opressed and a king of the "mornachy".... Atleast RAO delivered a constitution to protect the "minority".
Polls said Mwakwere was 3rd he won the Matuga by-election, polls said Sonko was trailing, he won the Makadara seat, so don't hang your hats on the pollsters numbers, as some have argued Kenya's unique demographic makes it impossible to conduct an accurate poll using the western approach. History though cannot be ignored, what Kenyans have been doing since 1963 will repeat itself, people will vote in ethnic blocs. You might be in for a surprise come March 5th
because better part off remaining % was kibaki and is perceived it will go to uhuru
Why lie Mutahi knows his stuff
RAO won in the 1st round he says....i think hes.cracked his mind!!!!