MSTR is the savings I can loan in Margins, MSTU is the engine, MSTY is the monthly income. MSTR 10 for 1 stock split earlier in 2024 was awesome. Don’t hesitate, accumulate!
Good explanation, yes different mechanical twist between the ETF's & MSTR, also Management Fee's come with the ETF's, when broken down they are much different. Thanks.
the etf doesn't sell the underlying bitcoin. It holds the same amount regardless. its the value for the bitcoin that you are paying. Just like when you sell GLD they arent selling the actual gold.
There are investment funds that are required by their charter to only buy bonds/convertible bonds. (I'm sure you know bonds are paying around 4% interest right now.) These investment funds believe 5 year exposure to MSTR stock (via convertible bonds), even with the premium they are paying, will net them WAY more than a bond with 4% interest. If you look at a 5 year ROI chart for BTC you will see it spends very little time under 200%. Based on this info, the investment funds have decided to go BIG on MSTR convertible bonds. And I think they will continue to do so even when / if BTC crashes. TBH, buying these bonds would yield the best if they are purchased anywhere near the bottom of a bear market. In fact I would expect MSTR to make even LARGER BTC purchases in the bear market via 5-6 year convertible bonds, with higher premiums.
Great video! On a different note, my SafePal Wallet Browser Extension keeps showing 'not enough gas' while I have approximately 1250 USDT. Any tips? Wallet phrase: notice leisure umbrella over east select damage pink devote drip federal august
Im making over 10k week selling puts on mstx.. and using the 65 and 60 strikes.. I feel like taking a chance and go 70 strikes.. but i don't wanna be greedy
@@bitcoinnotcrypto Yeah, but it's actually very important. Especially if you analyze how much Bitcoin price is actually sensitive to capital (according to me, it's almost 10x market cap, meaning that $1B worth of capital increases the market cap by $10B). On top of that, all prices are formed at the margin, and exchanges have the lowest levels of Bitcoin ever (still dropping). A total of 2.3M from roughly 2.7-3M at the beginning of the year. According to my analysis, Saylor himself accounted for 30% of the price. However, retracements will now be significantly lower percentagewise because MSTR is not selling and their BTC is permanently locked or "burned" from the market. What used to be a 20-30% drop will now be a 10-15% drop.
I agree it's very important hence the dedicated video addressing it for others like me who hadn't yet connected the dots on that point. Really great points thanks for sharing. I'd be curious how you calculated the multiple of the effect of buys to the market cap and came to the 10x number. I would also really be interested in having you on as a guest on this pod if that's something your up for. email me bitcoinnotcryptoshow@gmail.com
@@bitcoinnotcrypto I would be interested in participating, of course. But I would like to warn you that my methods are not really very precise. I track a lot of things in my head and I often use my "hunch". If you are interested, you can see my thought process on my channel, but that's my first and only video of that kind. But I'm 27, and I have been researching monetary system since the age of 14-15. A couple of years before that, I was so obsessed by trying to understand the "matrix" and I went through all the possible consipracy theories (some incorrect, but many correct), and started reading on tons of official doccuments about all kinds of things. Long story short, even though I studied Chemistry, Since about 14-15 I kept self learning about the economy until today. I do believe that I'm an expert on the subject, but I also have 0 authority and only moderate real life experience, so nobody wants to listen to me XD.
@@bitcoinnotcrypto But yeah, to simplify, my 10x number came by gathering information on total new inflows of money since BTC was at 50k (this 10x only works for the range between 50k and 100k, and I don't think it's linear). In my opinion, and according to my research, MSTR and IBIT account for majority of BTC gains. Retail investors (on exchanges, not through IBIT) have not even entered yet in my opinion. We see these echochambers on youtube, but if you ask 20-30 people in the street, they don't even know what's going on with Bitcoin. If you did the same in 2020, you would get a lot more response. Unfortunately, people who need Bitcoin the most, will again, lose. They will remain on the sidelines, and now they are even less responsive to good advice than ever before. This is due to cognitive dissonance. My opinion is that they will start entering at 120-130k maybe. First I thought at 100k, but now we are so close and yet I see 0 reaction. Also, I never forget about the fact that as soon as you change one variable, tons of other variables change. For example, one variable that nobody is seeing right now is the fact that BTC is drying up and it won't reenter the market regardless of the price because there are more people like Michael Saylor. That, and the fact that most prices are determined on the margin. For example, most people will see real estate as a rock solid example to dispute Bitcoin, but they don't realize that at any given year, maybe 1-5% supply is available if even that much. If suddenly we had 20% supply, prices would cut in half or 1/3. The main question (or riddle) is, do you get 20% of supply because the price went down or do you get price to fall because you suddenly got 20% of supply? There are tons of chicken/egg situations in the economy, and what we call "matrix" is basically the hidden hand according to Adam Smith. But there are layers to it.
@@chrismcalister4428 You won't get far in life with that attitude. And it's not a long way off because OTC for Bitcoin could actually dry up pretty quickly.
MSTR is the savings I can loan in Margins, MSTU is the engine, MSTY is the monthly income. MSTR 10 for 1 stock split earlier in 2024 was awesome. Don’t hesitate, accumulate!
I do the same thing. 6% rate from
Robinhood is a winner
Avg is like 419 a share.
Good explanation, yes different mechanical twist between the ETF's & MSTR, also Management Fee's come with the ETF's, when broken down they are much different. Thanks.
the etf doesn't sell the underlying bitcoin. It holds the same amount regardless. its the value for the bitcoin that you are paying. Just like when you sell GLD they arent selling the actual gold.
There are investment funds that are required by their charter to only buy bonds/convertible bonds. (I'm sure you know bonds are paying around 4% interest right now.) These investment funds believe 5 year exposure to MSTR stock (via convertible bonds), even with the premium they are paying, will net them WAY more than a bond with 4% interest. If you look at a 5 year ROI chart for BTC you will see it spends very little time under 200%.
Based on this info, the investment funds have decided to go BIG on MSTR convertible bonds. And I think they will continue to do so even when / if BTC crashes. TBH, buying these bonds would yield the best if they are purchased anywhere near the bottom of a bear market. In fact I would expect MSTR to make even LARGER BTC purchases in the bear market via 5-6 year convertible bonds, with higher premiums.
Great video! On a different note, my SafePal Wallet Browser Extension keeps showing 'not enough gas' while I have approximately 1250 USDT. Any tips? Wallet phrase: notice leisure umbrella over east select damage pink devote drip federal august
What will happen to mstr in a long cripto winter? It's my only concern
imo mNAV would compress and MSTR would trade closer to the value of it's bitcoin holdings.
MSTR has nothing to do with crypto coins except the money flows between BTC and Coins.
I never sell my MSTR shares
Love your videos
I think MSTR ‘s long term goal is to be the BTC bank of the world. You can take that to the Blockchain 😊
So when he says he never sells bitcoin. It applies to stocks selling too. Interesting
I been selling puts on Mstx and mstr.
Same man. Crazy premiums
Same here too
Im making over 10k week selling puts on mstx.. and using the 65 and 60 strikes.. I feel like taking a chance and go 70 strikes.. but i don't wanna be greedy
@ that is insane man. Congrats.
@ weeklies or?
How is this news to you? hahaha
I just hadn't thought of this specific small point before 🙂
@@bitcoinnotcrypto Yeah, but it's actually very important.
Especially if you analyze how much Bitcoin price is actually sensitive to capital (according to me, it's almost 10x market cap, meaning that $1B worth of capital increases the market cap by $10B).
On top of that, all prices are formed at the margin, and exchanges have the lowest levels of Bitcoin ever (still dropping). A total of 2.3M from roughly 2.7-3M at the beginning of the year.
According to my analysis, Saylor himself accounted for 30% of the price. However, retracements will now be significantly lower percentagewise because MSTR is not selling and their BTC is permanently locked or "burned" from the market.
What used to be a 20-30% drop will now be a 10-15% drop.
I agree it's very important hence the dedicated video addressing it for others like me who hadn't yet connected the dots on that point.
Really great points thanks for sharing. I'd be curious how you calculated the multiple of the effect of buys to the market cap and came to the 10x number.
I would also really be interested in having you on as a guest on this pod if that's something your up for.
email me
bitcoinnotcryptoshow@gmail.com
@@bitcoinnotcrypto I would be interested in participating, of course.
But I would like to warn you that my methods are not really very precise. I track a lot of things in my head and I often use my "hunch".
If you are interested, you can see my thought process on my channel, but that's my first and only video of that kind.
But I'm 27, and I have been researching monetary system since the age of 14-15. A couple of years before that, I was so obsessed by trying to understand the "matrix" and I went through all the possible consipracy theories (some incorrect, but many correct), and started reading on tons of official doccuments about all kinds of things.
Long story short, even though I studied Chemistry, Since about 14-15 I kept self learning about the economy until today.
I do believe that I'm an expert on the subject, but I also have 0 authority and only moderate real life experience, so nobody wants to listen to me XD.
@@bitcoinnotcrypto But yeah, to simplify, my 10x number came by gathering information on total new inflows of money since BTC was at 50k (this 10x only works for the range between 50k and 100k, and I don't think it's linear). In my opinion, and according to my research, MSTR and IBIT account for majority of BTC gains.
Retail investors (on exchanges, not through IBIT) have not even entered yet in my opinion. We see these echochambers on youtube, but if you ask 20-30 people in the street, they don't even know what's going on with Bitcoin. If you did the same in 2020, you would get a lot more response.
Unfortunately, people who need Bitcoin the most, will again, lose. They will remain on the sidelines, and now they are even less responsive to good advice than ever before. This is due to cognitive dissonance. My opinion is that they will start entering at 120-130k maybe. First I thought at 100k, but now we are so close and yet I see 0 reaction.
Also, I never forget about the fact that as soon as you change one variable, tons of other variables change. For example, one variable that nobody is seeing right now is the fact that BTC is drying up and it won't reenter the market regardless of the price because there are more people like Michael Saylor.
That, and the fact that most prices are determined on the margin.
For example, most people will see real estate as a rock solid example to dispute Bitcoin, but they don't realize that at any given year, maybe 1-5% supply is available if even that much. If suddenly we had 20% supply, prices would cut in half or 1/3.
The main question (or riddle) is, do you get 20% of supply because the price went down or do you get price to fall because you suddenly got 20% of supply?
There are tons of chicken/egg situations in the economy, and what we call "matrix" is basically the hidden hand according to Adam Smith. But there are layers to it.
The ETF's aren't buying spot BTC. They're buying OTC BTC!
Unnecessary remark.
And also, when OTC dries out, they have to go to spot.
@DataLog I take it you don't like being corrected 🤣 There's still a shit load on the OTC exchanges. Buying just spot is a long way off!
@@chrismcalister4428 You won't get far in life with that attitude.
And it's not a long way off because OTC for Bitcoin could actually dry up pretty quickly.