Don't mind me. Just taking study notes so I can refer back to. 10:00 Most fundamental analysis is useless to trading (options) 10:45 trading style: lots and lots of small trades (high probability trades) 12:19 option seller (implied volatility overstates moves) . net seller of options 13:44 small account can also do the “small trades” citing tasty trade study 16:00 diversified across markets, but also across time and strategy 17:55 not using charts much. But technials are still ok. People are visual. Their podcast #4 . No need to know history 19:51 Biggest thing about taking a trade is liquidity (stock volume minimum 1M) ; do I need this trade? (fit in over all picture) . More than probability 22:00 manage trades. 1) Self managed. Small trades. Let probability work itself out. 2) undefined risk trades. Babysit more. Quicker to take profit. 23:36 strategies when trades go wrong: roll them right; take credit (widen out break even points) 24:50 why options over other products: about leverage; ability to make positions that are creative (e.g. no need to predict up or down) 26:40 learn an area of topic in chunk (optionalpha.com has great free courses) 28:08 #1 thing people get wrong: not persistent not consistent 31:08 risk management: go back to “small trades” . 20 losing trades should not wipe out 32:32 risk: sliding scale 1-5% of account balance per trade 33:20 manage emotion: have rules in place 35:39 best piece of advice: no idea where the markets will go, own that. 36:09 #1 trading resource 36:43 #1 book 38:00 would have done differently: remove self from the trade
Exactly, he didn't mention that you need $10,000 of trading capital in order to trade with $500, and 5% is still huge risk. More like risking $500 with a 25k Acct is reasonable.
15:00 if anyone is interested in why the result is that way, if you bet above the kelly limit you are guaranteed to blow up even if the bet has positive expectancy
I am not sure if Fundamental Analysis includes knowing when warrants/ shelf offerings become active, but that is very important to know about any underlying... Though the most liquid underlyings will not have this problem
Problem with Option selling is some of the premiums are small. When the market does move, it can crush your profits unless you use complex stratgies. A .50 cent option $10 away seems likely to expire worthless, but if it goes below that before expiration, the premium will kill you.
One solution to this is to trade higher-priced companies. TSLA premiums can be about $1000, BYND is beyond $3000/contract. Other stuff like CMG, BNKG, and GOOGL are possibles too. Pay attention to ATR and levels.
Can anyone explain mathematically how the example of the 5% vs 50% trade works. Given a 75% win rate how did the person placing larger bets lose and how did the 5% guy only return 10% over 5 years
Well explained, Which is the best way to earn from the forex market, i have blown up my 3rd trade account making it a total of $27,000 i just lost. I need help right now, i really need to start regaining my losses. Is their any sure profitable strategy out there right now ? anyone.
I always do advice a lot of people to always invest based on their own findings and personal judgment, Trading became profitable to me after i started my live trading with Mr Dean Larsen Wilson, A very good trade expert with his advisory guidance, I have been able to record pounds of healthy trades and i have been earning much more.
Wow, This is a refreshing coincidence seeing another investor that invest with Dean Larsen Wilson on here. Despite my experience, I still find myself hooked to his investing services, Accuracy at its peak is actually what keeps me going back to him.
Great interview Aaron ... great info Kirk ditto on your philosophy's regarding liquidity, diversity of strategies and expiration's ... and like you I couldn't trade without TOS ... I'll stop by your Option Alpha site later ... thanks again gents
The discussion on trading 5% vs 50% per trade doesn't show that people with small accounts can still do well in the market. It's got nothing to do with account size. He said the winrate was 75%, he didn't say what the RRR was, presumably it was below 1 and if it was then trading 50% per trade is going to be above the kelly bet size which is the problem here. If the guy with the bigger account bet 10% per trade instead he may have come out ahead, and done better than if he had bet 5%.
+jemibanez agreed. Although I've heard from a couple traders that they have been able to open a live TOS account. They had to complete some type of tax form, but I'm not sure on the finer details...
You should interview cam24trader in youtube. He is one of the best teachers out there. He did it for free and his videos are great and really helped me and many other traders from what I see. Anyways great videos I have listened o 15 interviews today lol. I really enjoyed them.
Meh, you have a 1 in 3.5 billion chance of losing money as long as you risk 5% of your account or under and as long as your not playing with weeklies OTM options. He really should discuss delta a bit.
Youll win most of your trades, but add in fees, losses on bid ask spread, and the big drawdowns(which will happen with all short premium strategies) and its tough to make anything. They are a good source to learn that one option strategy, but I personally think there is a time to buy and a time to sell premium, and sometimes just trade the stock or futures. You should also learn market profile(CBOT trading manual), read the news, learn what type of trader you are (ie how do you react when a trade goes south, does your ego get involved, learn to control it),keep a trade journal, also trading a lot is good not because the reasons they say, its good because you can learn how markets move. Do 5000 trades in the next year, small, its the best education possible for a trader. Tastytrade strategy is appealing because it is easy, just close your eyes, look at IV, blindly sell premium/buy a spread and you make 10%.. nope. Trading is not that easy. Its a grind and it will take you a year to just stop losing money if you're good.
I left as soon as he gave that stupid tastytrade no proved based on nothing research !!! go invest 5% a month, this is not trading this is investing, Kirk is not a trader he is an active investor who doesn't make over 30% a year which for a trader is nothing !!!
Don't mind me. Just taking study notes so I can refer back to.
10:00 Most fundamental analysis is useless to trading (options)
10:45 trading style: lots and lots of small trades (high probability trades)
12:19 option seller (implied volatility overstates moves) . net seller of options
13:44 small account can also do the “small trades” citing tasty trade study
16:00 diversified across markets, but also across time and strategy
17:55 not using charts much. But technials are still ok. People are visual. Their podcast #4 . No need to know history
19:51 Biggest thing about taking a trade is liquidity (stock volume minimum 1M) ; do I need this trade? (fit in over all picture) . More than probability
22:00 manage trades. 1) Self managed. Small trades. Let probability work itself out. 2) undefined risk trades. Babysit more. Quicker to take profit.
23:36 strategies when trades go wrong: roll them right; take credit (widen out break even points)
24:50 why options over other products: about leverage; ability to make positions that are creative (e.g. no need to predict up or down)
26:40 learn an area of topic in chunk (optionalpha.com has great free courses)
28:08 #1 thing people get wrong: not persistent not consistent
31:08 risk management: go back to “small trades” . 20 losing trades should not wipe out
32:32 risk: sliding scale 1-5% of account balance per trade
33:20 manage emotion: have rules in place
35:39 best piece of advice: no idea where the markets will go, own that.
36:09 #1 trading resource
36:43 #1 book
38:00 would have done differently: remove self from the trade
Thanks dude
Cool, show me a trade where you can do an iron condor with 5% of 500$ please. The fee's alone would negate the profitability of the trade.
Exactly, he didn't mention that you need $10,000 of trading capital in order to trade with $500, and 5% is still huge risk. More like risking $500 with a 25k Acct is reasonable.
Exactly...couldn't agree more
I would like to know too. The iron condor trades I take require me to have $1000 at least since I do spreads of $10 strike prices apart.
Good
General
1. Position Sizing / Probabilities & Expectancy
2. Learning Process / Tharp Concepts
15:00 if anyone is interested in why the result is that way, if you bet above the kelly limit you are guaranteed to blow up even if the bet has positive expectancy
I am not sure if Fundamental Analysis includes knowing when warrants/ shelf offerings become active, but that is very important to know about any underlying... Though the most liquid underlyings will not have this problem
Fantastic series! Thank you much!
Thanks
Problem with Option selling is some of the premiums are small. When the market does move, it can crush your profits unless you use complex stratgies. A .50 cent option $10 away seems likely to expire worthless, but if it goes below that before expiration, the premium will kill you.
One solution to this is to trade higher-priced companies. TSLA premiums can be about $1000, BYND is beyond $3000/contract. Other stuff like CMG, BNKG, and GOOGL are possibles too. Pay attention to ATR and levels.
Thank you Aaron and Kirk! 🙏
I agree with the TOS platform:) best ever.
Was. Now Webull is king 👑 lol
Can anyone explain mathematically how the example of the 5% vs 50% trade works. Given a 75% win rate how did the person placing larger bets lose and how did the 5% guy only return 10% over 5 years
did you figured out this Question yet dude.
@@Aw-jaamac have you figured out the question yet dude 😂
@@Andrew6James because when trade iron condors you lose much less when you're wrong than you make when you're right, horrible R:R
Anyone have the spotify link for this episode ?
Well explained, Which is the best way to earn from the forex market, i have blown up my 3rd trade account making it a total of $27,000 i just lost. I need help right now, i really need to start regaining my losses. Is their any sure profitable strategy out there right now ? anyone.
I always do advice a lot of people to always invest based on their own findings and personal judgment, Trading became profitable to me after i started my live trading with Mr Dean Larsen Wilson, A very good trade expert with his advisory guidance, I have been able to record pounds of healthy trades and i have been earning much more.
Kevin Brocklesby, Yes his name does ring a bell. I have attended a seminar he gave a speech. how can I communicate directly to him?
@@sylviaedwards5901 You can speak directly to him through his mail at (Deanlarsenwilson@gmail.com)
Kevin Brocklesby, thank you so much!
Wow, This is a refreshing coincidence seeing another investor that invest with Dean Larsen Wilson on here. Despite my experience, I still find myself hooked to his investing services, Accuracy at its peak is actually what keeps me going back to him.
Great show thanks Aron.
+Nerijus Vilkevicius glad you enjoyed this Nerijus.
Awesome interview!
Awesome strategy! Slower building.. but a safe way to do it. Just how i like it, little slower but at a consistent steady pace.
Great interview Aaron ... great info Kirk ditto on your philosophy's regarding liquidity, diversity of strategies and expiration's ... and like you I couldn't trade without TOS ... I'll stop by your Option Alpha site later ... thanks again gents
+John Sparks - really great to hear you enjoyed this interview, John.
Thank u so much Guys ❤️❤️❤️
It is funny how the trader prefaces every answer with "Yeah Man."
Done.
The discussion on trading 5% vs 50% per trade doesn't show that people with small accounts can still do well in the market. It's got nothing to do with account size. He said the winrate was 75%, he didn't say what the RRR was, presumably it was below 1 and if it was then trading 50% per trade is going to be above the kelly bet size which is the problem here.
If the guy with the bigger account bet 10% per trade instead he may have come out ahead, and done better than if he had bet 5%.
And he also made no mention of commission fees with his style of trading. Fees alone would kill you. Just another false guru IMO. Sorry...
Sir u r just gr8 love from india....thanks for jem of content really less rated channel
Meat of the matter starts at 26:30.
13:00 option seller is much more important
Gold
27:00
This is sooooooo goood
The way he talks it is clear he sells otm options
Enter the market like Mathematician..leave all your emotions and biases out when you eneter.
It's a shame TOS isn't available to us Aussie investors...
+jemibanez agreed. Although I've heard from a couple traders that they have been able to open a live TOS account. They had to complete some type of tax form, but I'm not sure on the finer details...
Can you follow that up for me please. That would be greatly appreciated...
+jemibanez these are not traders I speak to frequently. I would suggest speaking with the TOS support team, or doing your own research.
You should interview cam24trader in youtube. He is one of the best teachers out there. He did it for free and his videos are great and really helped me and many other traders from what I see. Anyways great videos I have listened o 15 interviews today lol. I really enjoyed them.
+Paulo Justiniano, will look into it man. Thanks very much listening!
Cam is a good friend of mine. Great dude.
Aaron - yeah man
Kirk - yeah.....yeah
The broker gonna get all your money too
This man predicted robinhood lol
Meh, you have a 1 in 3.5 billion chance of losing money as long as you risk 5% of your account or under and as long as your not playing with weeklies OTM options. He really should discuss delta a bit.
not playing ETF'S, SPY WATCH EVERY TICK
Yeah man..yeah yeah...lol..
Listening to this while staring at a screen that has no movement is pretty boring. Had to stop watching.
5% multiplied by 20 is 100% though. no one can afford to lose 20 times 5%.
(100%-5%)^20=35.85%, which means you lose 64.15%.
Yan He have u deduct the commission yet? You are not trading a demo account
5% is too high for individual trades anyways. Plus 20 losses in a row should be an indicator to re-evaluate your system.
seems like he just ripped off tastytrades bs strategy.
Youll win most of your trades, but add in fees, losses on bid ask spread, and the big drawdowns(which will happen with all short premium strategies) and its tough to make anything. They are a good source to learn that one option strategy, but I personally think there is a time to buy and a time to sell premium, and sometimes just trade the stock or futures.
You should also learn market profile(CBOT trading manual), read the news, learn what type of trader you are (ie how do you react when a trade goes south, does your ego get involved, learn to control it),keep a trade journal, also trading a lot is good not because the reasons they say, its good because you can learn how markets move. Do 5000 trades in the next year, small, its the best education possible for a trader. Tastytrade strategy is appealing because it is easy, just close your eyes, look at IV, blindly sell premium/buy a spread and you make 10%.. nope. Trading is not that easy. Its a grind and it will take you a year to just stop losing money if you're good.
Excellent comments.
Ha! I was thinking the same thing. Total BS.
I left as soon as he gave that stupid tastytrade no proved based on nothing research !!! go invest 5% a month, this is not trading this is investing, Kirk is not a trader he is an active investor who doesn't make over 30% a year which for a trader is nothing !!!