How To Calculate The Expected Return Of A Stock (With FB Example)!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
- In this video I explain how to calculate the expected return of a stock. Expected return is an estimation of the return a stock/business is likely to generate for us over the long-term.
Expected return is a neat way of making investment decisions, particularly in a recession while lots of businesses are at acceptable prices.
Check out the links below for some of the additional resources to assist you in your stock analysis.
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Disclaimer:
The information in this video is general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from Hamish Hodder.
Hamish Hodder is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances.
Hamish Hodder is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by use of this video.
Analytical, wholistic and yet easy to understand breakdown of the valuation.
Thanks Hamish! Good content, real value.
As always, very well presented. The only Hamish, well done mate
Nicely presented. Thanks Hamish!
thank you for sharing the way to evaluate the business, it's worth a lot.
Thanks for this Hamish
Great vid, keep them coming !
Hi Hamish! Just finished your 4-step stock analysis and it was so usefull. Going to start analysing now and find some great businesses! Thank you :)
Ahh been waiting for more vids from you mate.
Thanks again for your video Hamish
Great explanation Hamish
Great video.Thanks Hamish
Love it. Thank you
Great insight on seizing the best opportunity among the option! After evaluating a list of favourite stocks, we have the option to weight on which stock yield the highest expected return, and how we allocate our investment.
Great video like always! There’s only two TH-camrs that I follow and obviously your one of them. I like your content and your investment philosophy. I hate how all of a sudden there’s all these youtubers recommending stocks to buy every week, every month, the best stocks for 2020, best dividend stocks and so on... and I’m just here thinking “how do all these youtubers can find stocks to buy from right to left when some of the best money managers at Berkshire Hathaway can’t seem to find one?” Even Mark Cuban just recently said that he’s mostly in cash.
Hamishka, you are brilliant
Hamish Hodler youve done it again
Thanks Hamish
Good stuff looking forward to more
Thank you. Your videos are so helpful, I’ve been following Facebook too and your recent videos. Keep it up. I made my own analysis of Facebook too which I’ll be sharing too in a video, I decided to buy it in March too especially after a bunch of analysis and playing oculus quest a lot. One weary part is Mark Zuckerberg and his reputation ..all the privacy issues
Hamish, can your spreadsheet calculate stock fair value price with consideration of dividend? Like AAPL and MSFT
Hi, Hamish. Love your work thus far, and I'm really learning a lot. I was wondering if you have any advice for factoring in and dealing with inflation, particularly hyperinflation, when investing in stocks? I'm from a country currently gripped by hyperinflation (circa 500% per annum), and this causes distortions in the financial data one would normally use. So my question is how to accurately pick stocks and forecast their growth given such circumstances. Any help would be very appreciated. Ciao!
Hey great vid as always, would it be possible if you can show how to make a DCF model cuz there is so much involved , like some DCF say to use WACC and beta etc but I noticed yours doesn’t, it would be great how you make yours, I just want to understand the process I know what it does but don’t know how to make one. Cheers look forward to next video
Hey Hamish, real good content enjoy listening to your stuff. Just wondering when i download your spreadsheets & i put in the information it doesn't ever give a buy price per share. Just gives a buy price.? Also are you still taking people onto your course.
Hey Brendan, make sure you have entered in the ticket symbol in the top left corner of the 'Data Input' sheet.
Yes, Learn By Example is still taking a limited number of students:
www.hamishhodder.com/introduction
Hamish do you multiply your cash flow estimate by a multiple( 12 or say 15) then divide it by shares out standing to get price per share ?
Does calculating WACC serve the same purpose? For baseline R. rate of return.
Hi Hamish - I’m worried that we haven’t seen the market bottom yet, as many others are. It’s possible we already hit the bottom in March, but seems less likely to me. Thoughts on selling and waiting for a drop, versus holding on? Maybe a hedge? Thanks man
would like to see your perspective for china stocks.
Hi Hamish!
In your model one of the inputs is clearly the potential growth rate of the business.. but that rate is based on the potential upside on earnings.
Now, you use that rate to growth the FCF (another input of your model). It is correct to assume that the FCF could growth at the same levels that earnings do? Or am I missing something else.
Thanks for your videos and material! :)
Can I have a read on your analysis reports on FB which you did to create the investment thesis to your conclusion before price?
Hamish can you do an analysis on one of the banks like JPM or BAC? Only you can explain it in a way that everyone can understand.
Awesome, thank you very much, useful info as always!
I just wish some stocks would go lower again as this nonsensical rally prevented me to buy them cheap... If only the Fed stopped pumping money already... :'(
Hi. Can I use WACC for “Required rate of return”?
Hi Hamish, hope u do a video on Alibaba valuation
Hamish, could you do one of these for TSLA? Makes it harder with no P/E, negative FCF, etc
You can not do that. = dont buy Tesla.
@@jbjergh Haha! I think Tesla's gonna dominate
@@darkasian755 Maybe. But you can not calculate on this.
@@darkasian755 good company doesnt equal good price for the stock
Would you be able to carry out an example on Disney?
How do you estimate the growth rate of a company in order to set the range of growth rates for discounted cash flow?
Where can I find the Facebook analysis pdfs
I don't understand because I saw other DCF and in those ones they use a terminal growth rate and a wacc. Can you explain theain difference between your análisis an the other ones? Thanks in advance!
There are a few different ways you can calculate terminal value and I will be covering this topic in a video very soon!
@@HamishHodder great that would be very useful for me and many people I think. Thanks from Argentina!!!
6:34 Start if Topic.
Everyone needs to learn bout investing ASAP! this covid thing has clearly shown us that we need to create at least one passive income source...
Great work! But FB only went to 140 - 150 because of the covid crash.
Very interesting that you ditched the EPS P/E calculation method in favor of NPV analysis.
I would like to see your facebook's analysis
Where can we can the facebook case analysis?
www.hamishhodder.com/introduction
How did you set up that spreadsheet?
Not clear to me why by inserting 22% in the required rate of return cell the result would be including exactly 50% of margin of safety
Because he's after a 15% rate of return. 50% of 15 is approx 7 which equates to 22% when added to the required rate of return
I have a feeling this guy will be the new CEO of Berkshire
OpenLearning ASX STOCK: $OLL$
Has been considered a good hold investment to 5+ years
Could you tell me more about this stock and why it is good long term?
Tesla is a no brainer 🇦🇺
Bro talks too much!