I saw this on the recommendation of JL Collins and was absolutely blown away. Will be listening to more of your work and checking out the Kitces blog immediately. Can't believe how much was packed in here, and how the last 20 minutes were arguably even more stunning than any other part. Great, great interview.
Great show! Vanguard came out with a research paper in June 21, exploring the swr for early retirees and looking into the effects of international diversification, low expense ratios and dynamic spending. Even Vanguard (imo usually erring on the conservative side), concludes that 4% holds up for longer than 30 year retirement periods with a 50/50 portfolio and a 85% probability of success.
Whenever I need inspiration I listen to this talk. I WILL be getting out early for good behavior. Love listening to Michael Kitces Nerd's Eye Views! By the way the difference between a nerd & a dork is owning polyhedral dice.
I’m curious what the tested asset allocations were for these scenarios. I’ll be doing some further research. Was great to hear Michael’s information. I was also impressed by the articulate hosts with the good questions. :)
A couple things: 1. CAPE ratio at the time of retirement. CAPE isn't be all end all and I think "normal" creeps up over time so to hell with 15 being the average level. Still, high CAPE probably means lower SWR. 2. The insidious thing about 1966 is that you're probably 5-7 years in before you realize you're in trouble. 1929 and 2000 were large crashes and were obvious. Your software engineering skill set is out of date 7 years in and you realize you're in trouble. Then what? Making 20k a year making $20/hr is a lot of damn work.
This is a solid observation. 1966 was the really sneaky one. All that said - if you’ve got a big nest egg - and a willingness to adjust - I think you’re fine. Especially when you include social security kicking in down the road. And the spending smile for most. I’m getting ready to pull the plug at 51 with just over $3m (I’m single). I’m considering a 4.25% wr and a willingness to adjust. My essential spending is probably only 2.5% - the rest is discretionary. I want to spend more while I’m “young” while still being conservative. What are your thoughts on that strategy?
@@rootedrotor525 I think its great especially as a single person and not being that far from social security. $3m is a lot of money and I think a single guy in the US could easily live off of 30k or less if needed especially with ACA subsidies. You're 51, go for it!
the problem with this is that there is a country bias, USA has been one of the best performing stock markets in the last 100 years. If you invested in France or Germany last 100 years your CAGR would have been around 3% compared to the USA at 7%+. Also, the demographic picture and GDP growth are both a lot worse than they been the 100 years before. my advice adjust the 4% rule to 3% or 2.5%. don't believe me look at japan market is half of the peak in 1989.....
Currently on a path that will have me retiring in 5 years (25 years old right now), because of my real estate portfolio (I talk about my real estate on my TH-cam channel). This video was helpful to see different ways I can retire!
Generally they should be avoided, but there are many Baby Boomers who didn't have the benefit of 401ks or didn't plan for retirement and the majority of their net worth is in their home. Unless you sell,you can't tap the equity because banks won't usually even give you a HELOC because you're not working. Sadly the choice is sell or reverse mortgage.
I saw this on the recommendation of JL Collins and was absolutely blown away. Will be listening to more of your work and checking out the Kitces blog immediately. Can't believe how much was packed in here, and how the last 20 minutes were arguably even more stunning than any other part. Great, great interview.
This is easily the best episode you guys have ever done. Michael Kitces is a true personal finance guru! Keep up the great work guys!
This dude is something else, just a treasure trove of information. Great interview Mindy and Scott
Wow, how'd I miss this one? This was a classic..... Mike Kitces truly has an extraordinary financial mind.
If you liked this episode, you should check out our BiggerPockets Money Podcast! th-cam.com/users/BiggerPocketsMoney
I saw this on the recommendation of JL Collins and was absolutely blown away. Will be listening to more of your work and checking out the Kitces blog immediately. Can't believe how much was packed in here, and how the last 20 minutes were arguably even more stunning than any other part. Great, great interview.
Great show! Vanguard came out with a research paper in June 21, exploring the swr for early retirees and looking into the effects of international diversification, low expense ratios and dynamic spending. Even Vanguard (imo usually erring on the conservative side), concludes that 4% holds up for longer than 30 year retirement periods with a 50/50 portfolio and a 85% probability of success.
Whenever I need inspiration I listen to this talk. I WILL be getting out early for good behavior. Love listening to Michael Kitces Nerd's Eye Views! By the way the difference between a nerd & a dork is owning polyhedral dice.
I love Michael Kitces. Who knew a finance nerd could be so entertaining to listen to!
Kitces definitely knows his stuff . I’ve seen him speak in person and he is the real deal
Michael Kitces is my superhero.
Wow, what an episode!
Wow! This is beyond helpful!
I am excited to hear your podcast! Been following you since the start!
I was motivated by you to start my own TH-cam Channel on Finance!
Amazing stuff
Great show
amazing content
You have good content. You're off to a great start!
Kitces is a LEGEND
I’m curious what the tested asset allocations were for these scenarios. I’ll be doing some further research. Was great to hear Michael’s information. I was also impressed by the articulate hosts with the good questions. :)
17:30 ish
Thank you, excellent interview!!
Scott was so excited not even his hair was able to sit still
Great Video Really Enjoyed It.
Hi Mindy, love the green dinosaur in the back! This is one of the biggest reasons we do this, the kiddos.
Seems like this is a great episode... except I don't know what he is talking about. I may be too green for this🤣
A couple things:
1. CAPE ratio at the time of retirement. CAPE isn't be all end all and I think "normal" creeps up over time so to hell with 15 being the average level. Still, high CAPE probably means lower SWR.
2. The insidious thing about 1966 is that you're probably 5-7 years in before you realize you're in trouble. 1929 and 2000 were large crashes and were obvious. Your software engineering skill set is out of date 7 years in and you realize you're in trouble. Then what? Making 20k a year making $20/hr is a lot of damn work.
This is a solid observation. 1966 was the really sneaky one. All that said - if you’ve got a big nest egg - and a willingness to adjust - I think you’re fine. Especially when you include social security kicking in down the road. And the spending smile for most. I’m getting ready to pull the plug at 51 with just over $3m (I’m single). I’m considering a 4.25% wr and a willingness to adjust. My essential spending is probably only 2.5% - the rest is discretionary. I want to spend more while I’m “young” while still being conservative. What are your thoughts on that strategy?
@@rootedrotor525 I think its great especially as a single person and not being that far from social security. $3m is a lot of money and I think a single guy in the US could easily live off of 30k or less if needed especially with ACA subsidies.
You're 51, go for it!
thanks
the problem with this is that there is a country bias, USA has been one of the best performing stock markets in the last 100 years.
If you invested in France or Germany last 100 years your CAGR would have been around 3% compared to the USA at 7%+.
Also, the demographic picture and GDP growth are both a lot worse than they been the 100 years before.
my advice adjust the 4% rule to 3% or 2.5%.
don't believe me look at japan market is half of the peak in 1989.....
Currently on a path that will have me retiring in 5 years (25 years old right now), because of my real estate portfolio (I talk about my real estate on my TH-cam channel). This video was helpful to see different ways I can retire!
Sorry. I don’t trust anyone who recommends a reverse mortgage. You lost credibility.
He has a lot of good points anyway. Closed mindset to think like you do
Generally they should be avoided, but there are many Baby Boomers who didn't have the benefit of 401ks or didn't plan for retirement and the majority of their net worth is in their home. Unless you sell,you can't tap the equity because banks won't usually even give you a HELOC because you're not working. Sadly the choice is sell or reverse mortgage.
I saw this on the recommendation of JL Collins and was absolutely blown away. Will be listening to more of your work and checking out the Kitces blog immediately. Can't believe how much was packed in here, and how the last 20 minutes were arguably even more stunning than any other part. Great, great interview.