Weekly Report CFT - Monday 20, November 2023 - Bitcoin Stocks | Crypto | Crypto News New Update

CFT Update Monday, November 20th
BTC and ETH paused their rally and edged lower last week, with BTC finding support near $35,000 on Tuesday before paring some of its losses later in the week as markets dealt with slowing economic data with declining retail sales in October and rising jobless claims, despite encouraging inflation readings and the confirmation of a BlackRock spot ETH ETF filing. BTC and ETH were trading near $35,600 and $2,080 on Friday, respectively shedding -1.9% and - 5.6% over the week and bringing the YTD performances to +121% and +64%.
US Equities rallied and clinched a third straight week of gains with markets welcoming the last-minute US budget deal on Thursday to avert another government shutdown, and embracing the latest CPI update as inflation pressures eased as rising weekly jobless claims to 231,000 and October CPI data came at 3.2% - Core CPI 4%, softer than the expected 3.3% and 4.1%, reinforced the narrative of no further rate hikes in 2023 and hopes of a Fed pivot potentially throughout the first half of 2024. S&P and Nasdaq closed on Friday near 4,514 and 14,125, respectively notching weekly gains of +2.3 % and +2.4% while the VIX index edged lower to 13%, below its 200-Day MA currently near 17.1%.
US Treasury yields fell in the wake of the latest economic figures highlighting a gradual slowing of inflation and retail sales, which added to the declining Consumer Sentiment from earlier this month. The 10Y and 2Y yields closed lower near 4.44% and 4.89% on Friday from 4.65% and 5.07% the week before. While the Fed seems reluctant to indicate a peak in interest rates, the odds of the Fed keeping interest rates steady in December are 99.9% from 69.9% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
DXY faced a steep weekly decline with inflation softening and impacting market expectations of interest rates and the dollar’s strength while the JPYUSD picked up last week. DXY closed the week at 103.82 on Friday from 105.8 the week before- its lowest level since Sep 1, 2023.
Oil prices fell for a fourth consecutive week amid continued concerns of slowing demand, partly fuelled by the slowdown in US industrial production and the higher-than-expected jobless claims update despite ongoing pressure from the Middle conflict and Iraq supporting more production cuts ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on November 26. The WTI ended the week lower near $76.01, from $77.31 the week before.
BTC and ETH are moderately mixed today as markets look ahead to this week’s holiday-shortened agenda in observance of Thanksgiving starting with the Minutes of the Fed's FOMC meeting released on Tuesday along with updates on the housing markets - existing home sales - followed by weekly jobless claims and the final University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index MCSI for November on Wednesday, which could help gauge the confidence in the US economy. Investors will also look forward to the latest batch of corporate earnings with Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Lowe's, Hewlett Packard, Nvidia, and Zoom Video Communications set to report among others while keeping an eye on the latest S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI data releasing on Friday.
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