✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Honestly, this situation makes me feel uneasy, particularly with the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 bps. It indicates deeper economic concerns, and I'm uncertain about my $130K investment strategy, especially with the possibility of not just a recession but potentially a depression.
I agree. Even with great opportunities, we should proceed cautiously. Seeking market analysis or advice from certified market strategists is important.
Absolutely, having a solid plan is crucial. My portfolio has doubled since early last year. My financial advisor and I are working towards a seven-figure goal, though it might take until Q3 2024.
how can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your succedss??
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Welcome back Julia. Great insights from Bill. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" is a forgotten message in our current market.
With the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps, what do you think will happen to the stock market? My portfolio has performed exceptionally well this year, but I am concerned about the possibility of a market crash and losing my gains.
rate cut will create new buying opportunity, but given the current market uncertainty, have you considered consulting a FA? they can provide personalized strategies to help protect your investments and maximize returns
rate cut will create new buying opportunity, but given the current market uncertainty, have you considered consulting a financial advisor? they can provide personalized strategies to help protect your investments and maximize returns
Over $6 trillion is in money markets earning high interest, but Fed rate cuts will push this money into equities. A crash/recession can be discussed after that shift. My advisor has helped me understand the market, gaining 25% this year alone under her guidance.
i’ve managed my investment portfolio for 3 years. initially, it performed well, but recently, it has been losing money. I need to find a way to start seeing growth again, how can i reach your advisir please?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with ''Katherine Nance Dietz'' for several years now and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
People who say the Fed doesn't know what they are doing are dead wrong. There is a clear understanding within DC of what is occurring. All economic systems deteriate over time, and all the things we look at and complain about are expected, especially after the pinnacle of a cycle. You just need to identify where we stand within the cycle and adjust investments. No policy adjustments can alter what will inevitably happen. More debasement until collapse.
With the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps, what do you think will happen to the stock market? My portfolio has performed exceptionally well this year, but I am concerned about the possibility of a market crash and losing my gains though it's all on a brighter and splurging side for Gold, should I look that way?
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments. Nevertheless, seeking guidance from an investment planner might be necessary if you desire a more assertive return.
Investing in gold is a reliable choice, and I plan to keep buying more to make up for my losses. While silver is also a good investment, my collectibles are not as similar. It's important to have clear investment goals and educate yourself on the type of investment that interests you. I work with a financial consultant regulated by the SEC, and started small, but eventually accumulated over $800,000.
I will like to ask, How did you achieve it? I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I once met at Fitzwilliam college Cambridge in the 1980's a guy who knew John Maynard Keynes - Quentin Bell, ( Virginia Woolfe's nephew ). He passed away since.
i really like the part about human psychology. its really something most people don't pay any attention about. human psychology never changes, it just shows up and the face of it looks different.
Bill has been a perma bear for years and he's consistently wrong on the market for years as well. I really appreciate his opinion so I can do exactly the opposite. Thank you
The right thing was to not raise rates when the inflation was 90% shortages and higher oil prices. It was the correct to cut rates because unemployment is starting to accelerate rapidly. BTW, It actually is starting tomorrow.
I was surprised they went that route too. Lowering rates doesn’t seem like the right call when inflation is still high. It's just pushing people toward riskier investments trying to chase returns, and that’s never good for the long-term
I like bill and Luke gromen view . Bill : they shouldn’t lower rates due to the state of the economy right now . Luke : doesn’t matter , the rates are going down to help fiscal deficit of the 🇺🇸.
Julia, thanks for the work and asking good questions, but he is not able to explain your questions in a plausible way! Your best guest so far was Jim Rickards. Please bring him back again. :)
Inflation is interesting. IF it's Food/Gas/Electricity - the kind that everyone pays more for - Everyone complains. IF it's Asset Inflation - stocks/real estate/ gold/ BitCoin - then if you already own it - you Love it. You're making money!! The poorer get screwed in both. The richer gets screwed in the first - but benefits from the second - so come out better. So Inflation is selective to whom gets screwed.
I like Fleckenstein a lot. He seems so impassioned about the destructive impact of the Fed and their reckless policies, which I agree with. However, where is his understanding of the macro to help shape and model the direction of economies and ultimately markets? Does he not see the rising unemployment rate as a concern? Claudia Sahm's rule or Mckelvey's rule have both been triggered, suggesting unemployment by historical record will continue to accelerate. If he is a student of history, how does this not factor into his thinking? It seems important, yet his fixation is that inflation will persist so there really is no reason for the Fed to cut and that long rates will continue to push higher. Is he factoring the impact of China's economy slowing markedly and the collapsing price of iron ore / steel and the deflationary impact that will have on the global economy? They are also dumping cheap everything on the world on a grand scale. Just go and talk to anyone who lives/works in the region of South East Asia at the moment. Then we can look at Europe who are mired in a shallow recession but what is likely worsening to a deep recession as industrial production in places like Germany slows to levels never seen before. These will all impact the US economy and inflation more broadly, yet he seems convinced inflation is going higher. I just wonder if he is so anti Fed that he has become so fixated on the idea that any decision they make is wrong, rather than perhaps considering or asking the question "what are they seeing that I'm not". For all their flaws, they still are run by Fed members who spread across America and are speaking to different regions and business owners in those regions. It is possible that what they are hearing - and this is certainly true of the many surveys that are coming back at the moment - that the US economy is slowing quickly and the outlook is quite negative. Just my 2 cents..
After watching Bill the last time you had him on, I took his advice and bought gold (miners). As of today, my positions are up 50%!! Too bad I didn't buy more at that time, and now I have cold feet about buying more because it has gone up so much so quickly.
No. "You are not only providing the basis for a bust of the asset price bubble" - but you are providing the basis for allowing new credit - and based on this credit keep on doing consumption. → stop doing it, and the economy will enter a downward spiral with a "not so nice" ending ...
To much Government spending, combined with unfunded liabilities, mix that with 1 Trillion dollar interest payments. It's not going to end well. Stop loaning money to people who can't afford to pay it back would be a great place to start, including the Government.
I’m sorry, Fleck has been singing the same tune since I subscribed to his service in the 1990’s. The economy and equites are up multiples of where he thought they would go, all those years ago, and the Fed is even more friendly toward loose money than back then. Who’d have thought we’d have ZIRP for over a decade and this Fed balance sheet that we have gotten over the intervening time, yet enjoy only 4% unemployment and sub-3% inflation in 2024!? Fleck has never adjusted his thinking. The most stubborn pundit and critic of financial markets and monetary/fiscal policy that I’ve ever heard.
@@Stone881 The illusion of support for the US Dollar, seems to have a difficult time presenting any positive figures. They will Hand Trump a Failed Economy to repair. Just like LBJ handing the Nixon Administration the Bill for NAM..... The cost of Colonial Conflicts does produce enormous debt. What Economic Miracle will the next Administration come up with?
I love listening to Bill. He is smart and articulate. However, keep in mind that he has been a "perma bear" for decades. I agree with everything he has put forth. However, I think his views can be viewed as fear mongering. Stay the course and make sure your allocation to stocks is appropriate for your risk tolerance. Also, I think value investing will do well in the years ahead. Consider this strategy for your equity holdings.
you had better be careful Julia.......you are making Bill ....Blush...lol.......if i had such a pretty girl giving me all those compliments......i would be Blushing tooo..........lol
i really like the part about human psychology. its really something most people don't pay any attention about. human psychology never changes, it just shows up and the face of it looks different.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
Honestly, this situation makes me feel uneasy, particularly with the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 bps. It indicates deeper economic concerns, and I'm uncertain about my $130K investment strategy, especially with the possibility of not just a recession but potentially a depression.
I agree. Even with great opportunities, we should proceed cautiously. Seeking market analysis or advice from certified market strategists is important.
Absolutely, having a solid plan is crucial. My portfolio has doubled since early last year. My financial advisor and I are working towards a seven-figure goal, though it might take until Q3 2024.
how can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your succedss??
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Bill's the best - what a class act, humble and smart. Appreciate him & the thoughtful questions from Julia.
Great job. Best Bill Fleckenstein interview ever.
Been around mkts a few yrs longer than Bill and have always found him to be a realistic, worthwhile listen ... Ted Williams batted 0.344.
Great guest...thanks Julia.
Julia does an exceptional job with her interviews. This is yet another one.
Welcome back Julia. Great insights from Bill. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" is a forgotten message in our current market.
I believe the Bond market is the truth BUT the Gold market is the absolute truth.
Always like listening to Bill 😊
I always tune in to the great Bill Fleckenstein, whatever macro show he happens to be on. He doesn't do a lot of interviews, so kudos to you, Julia!
With the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps, what do you think will happen to the stock market? My portfolio has performed exceptionally well this year, but I am concerned about the possibility of a market crash and losing my gains.
rate cut will create new buying opportunity, but given the current market uncertainty, have you considered consulting a FA? they can provide personalized strategies to help protect your investments and maximize returns
rate cut will create new buying opportunity, but given the current market uncertainty, have you considered consulting a financial advisor? they can provide personalized strategies to help protect your investments and maximize returns
Over $6 trillion is in money markets earning high interest, but Fed rate cuts will push this money into equities. A crash/recession can be discussed after that shift. My advisor has helped me understand the market, gaining 25% this year alone under her guidance.
i’ve managed my investment portfolio for 3 years. initially, it performed well, but recently, it has been losing money. I need to find a way to start seeing growth again, how can i reach your advisir please?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with ''Katherine Nance Dietz'' for several years now and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Great interview. Your approach and style are very engaging. Well done!
Nothing beats experience and intelligence thank you both
Great show Julia!
Great pod, thanks for creating this!
Always love Fleck, and Julia seems to ask the right questions to get the most out of him. Nice work!
Excellent episode
Bill is the best smart guy and knows how corrupt the system really is.
He’s right , the prices didn’t come down , there was no victory by the fed .
There can be if they allowed deflation long enough. But thatll never happen.
Bill! Where’s the rest of The Beach Boys?
WELL SAID BILL
Bill is great. You should have him on more regularly.
That it’s lasted this long (post 1971) is surprising. The Fed has used every trick in their book. The Jig is up!
Welcome back, Bill!
Don't forget, silver price is manipulated and suppressed by the big banks. I wouldn't hold my breath in getting silver up to its actual price soon.
Loved your guest today❤
What a great guest - I learned a lot, thanks for the content.
People who say the Fed doesn't know what they are doing are dead wrong. There is a clear understanding within DC of what is occurring. All economic systems deteriate over time, and all the things we look at and complain about are expected, especially after the pinnacle of a cycle. You just need to identify where we stand within the cycle and adjust investments. No policy adjustments can alter what will inevitably happen. More debasement until collapse.
With the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps, what do you think will happen to the stock market? My portfolio has performed exceptionally well this year, but I am concerned about the possibility of a market crash and losing my gains though it's all on a brighter and splurging side for Gold, should I look that way?
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments. Nevertheless, seeking guidance from an investment planner might be necessary if you desire a more assertive return.
Investing in gold is a reliable choice, and I plan to keep buying more to make up for my losses. While silver is also a good investment, my collectibles are not as similar. It's important to have clear investment goals and educate yourself on the type of investment that interests you. I work with a financial consultant regulated by the SEC, and started small, but eventually accumulated over $800,000.
I will like to ask, How did you achieve it? I been trying to stick with index funds. I feel this new interest rates hikes could crash this economy. I'm looking out for a better investing strategy, I have a lump sum that inflation is steady eating up.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I once met at Fitzwilliam college Cambridge in the 1980's a guy who knew John Maynard Keynes - Quentin Bell, ( Virginia Woolfe's nephew ). He passed away since.
Great guest and interviewer.
i really like the part about human psychology. its really something most people don't pay any attention about. human psychology never changes, it just shows up and the face of it looks different.
Love Bill. Julia’s not bad either😉
Bill has been a perma bear for years and he's consistently wrong on the market for years as well. I really appreciate his opinion so I can do exactly the opposite. Thank you
The right thing was to not raise rates when the inflation was 90% shortages and higher oil prices. It was the correct to cut rates because unemployment is starting to accelerate rapidly. BTW, It actually is starting tomorrow.
Excellent interview............. Bill is giving real practical trading advice............
I keep hearing "It's different this time.". Several TH-camrs and media keep repeating this theme.
Fleck is still the man!
I was surprised they went that route too. Lowering rates doesn’t seem like the right call when inflation is still high. It's just pushing people toward riskier investments trying to chase returns, and that’s never good for the long-term
I like bill and Luke gromen view .
Bill : they shouldn’t lower rates due to the state of the economy right now .
Luke : doesn’t matter , the rates are going down to help fiscal deficit of the 🇺🇸.
The rate cut was to keep the federal government afloat. Can't afford interest expense.
The herd instinct. Always good to be wary.
How about yesterday’s NFP or Dems’ tax proposals & their impacts on GDX?
Investing in yourself is key...not an unstable commodity like gold or silver..skills..knowledge..experience are priceless 😮
He did a good job on this socialism vs capitalism lets all vote
I really wish you would ask some of these guests abour BRICS
Happy to! Shoot me an email at julia@julialaroche.com w/ questions + guest recommendations.
BRICKS is NOTHING. Get over your obsession about USD doomsday lol. USD is going no where. Every govt is printing, including US govt.
Come in Bill,you know the Jewdiciary is getting exactly what they want. All the property in the world.
Julia, thanks for the work and asking good questions, but he is not able to explain your questions in a plausible way! Your best guest so far was Jim Rickards. Please bring him back again. :)
Inflation is interesting.
IF it's Food/Gas/Electricity - the kind that everyone pays more for - Everyone complains.
IF it's Asset Inflation - stocks/real estate/ gold/ BitCoin - then if you already own it - you Love it. You're making money!!
The poorer get screwed in both.
The richer gets screwed in the first - but benefits from the second - so come out better.
So Inflation is selective to whom gets screwed.
The price level (accumulation of inflation) may never cone down.
Ironic they put in a “public bond account ad”
I like Fleckenstein a lot. He seems so impassioned about the destructive impact of the Fed and their reckless policies, which I agree with. However, where is his understanding of the macro to help shape and model the direction of economies and ultimately markets? Does he not see the rising unemployment rate as a concern? Claudia Sahm's rule or Mckelvey's rule have both been triggered, suggesting unemployment by historical record will continue to accelerate. If he is a student of history, how does this not factor into his thinking? It seems important, yet his fixation is that inflation will persist so there really is no reason for the Fed to cut and that long rates will continue to push higher. Is he factoring the impact of China's economy slowing markedly and the collapsing price of iron ore / steel and the deflationary impact that will have on the global economy? They are also dumping cheap everything on the world on a grand scale. Just go and talk to anyone who lives/works in the region of South East Asia at the moment. Then we can look at Europe who are mired in a shallow recession but what is likely worsening to a deep recession as industrial production in places like Germany slows to levels never seen before. These will all impact the US economy and inflation more broadly, yet he seems convinced inflation is going higher. I just wonder if he is so anti Fed that he has become so fixated on the idea that any decision they make is wrong, rather than perhaps considering or asking the question "what are they seeing that I'm not". For all their flaws, they still are run by Fed members who spread across America and are speaking to different regions and business owners in those regions. It is possible that what they are hearing - and this is certainly true of the many surveys that are coming back at the moment - that the US economy is slowing quickly and the outlook is quite negative. Just my 2 cents..
The US bond market doesn't need to be great. It just needs to be better than all the other sovereign bonds, a.k.a, the cleanest shirt in the laundry.
After watching Bill the last time you had him on, I took his advice and bought gold (miners). As of today, my positions are up 50%!! Too bad I didn't buy more at that time, and now I have cold feet about buying more because it has gone up so much so quickly.
No. "You are not only providing the basis for a bust of the asset price bubble" - but you are providing the basis for allowing new credit - and based on this credit keep on doing consumption.
→ stop doing it, and the economy will enter a downward spiral with a "not so nice" ending ...
Is it just me, or does it seem like the Fed is more concerned with applause than actually fixing the economy? 🤔
I ❤ Fleck! If only he would accept that he and Grant are true Bitcoiners already 😂
How about QT?
To much Government spending, combined with unfunded liabilities, mix that with 1 Trillion dollar interest payments. It's not going to end well. Stop loaning money to people who can't afford to pay it back would be a great place to start, including the Government.
Fed Funds rate should shadow nominal GDP.
I’m sorry, Fleck has been singing the same tune since I subscribed to his service in the 1990’s. The economy and equites are up multiples of where he thought they would go, all those years ago, and the Fed is even more friendly toward loose money than back then. Who’d have thought we’d have ZIRP for over a decade and this Fed balance sheet that we have gotten over the intervening time, yet enjoy only 4% unemployment and sub-3% inflation in 2024!? Fleck has never adjusted his thinking. The most stubborn pundit and critic of financial markets and monetary/fiscal policy that I’ve ever heard.
4% unemployment and sub 3% inflation, laughable! Many things in this world cost 3-4 what they used to and everything is at least 50% higher.
Bill should enumerate those great history books 🤔.
It was a tale of two cities….a low thundering could be sensed.
If this happens, the FED will just monetize the debt and buy all of the treasuries.
fed said it is doing QT...he talks about it...although he pointed out it was watered down...
@@MeMe-lm9bm I wonder if they buy up Fracker's Bonds?
That was something that messed up the sales of Frakkin Bonds
last time OPEC+ messed with prices.
What do you think they do now?!
@@Stone881 The illusion of support for the US Dollar,
seems to have a difficult time presenting any positive figures.
They will Hand Trump a Failed Economy to repair.
Just like LBJ handing the Nixon Administration the Bill for NAM.....
The cost of Colonial Conflicts does produce enormous debt.
What Economic Miracle will the next Administration come up with?
I don’t thumbs up when you got scam comments at the top of your page
Making loans and using overvalued collateral in the underwriting decision has consequences. Go figure.
4 mins of losing your audience got me
Everything broke in 2008 they have just been keeping the system going since then. Things are going to get way way worse…
Bill is totally the Fonz of financial markets but with way more brainz!
Until you run a business 👍👍👍👍👍
Is he still in gold stocks?
Yes
Alamos Agnico Wesdome
Btc??
I love listening to Bill. He is smart and articulate. However, keep in mind that he has been a "perma bear" for decades. I agree with everything he has put forth. However, I think his views can be viewed as fear mongering. Stay the course and make sure your allocation to stocks is appropriate for your risk tolerance. Also, I think value investing will do well in the years ahead. Consider this strategy for your equity holdings.
We have a diversity of viewpoints on the channel. My next two guests are bulls 😊
i liked him on happy days. haaaaay
you had better be careful Julia.......you are making Bill ....Blush...lol.......if i had such a pretty girl giving me all those compliments......i would be Blushing tooo..........lol
I'm not sure he did anything for 45 minutes besides state the obvious. Lots of cold takes.
👍🏻💛
Lend a guy 10’you may get paid back
Lend 100 they doge you
1000 they never answer phone
35 trillion your never getting paid
This clown has underperformed the market forever.but comes on these programs and acts like he is some kind of guru.
Laughed
It’s about losing less when the SHTF that is way more important…
Get better guest 🤦🏾♂️
Bill has turned into a whining dude
Great interview.
i really like the part about human psychology. its really something most people don't pay any attention about. human psychology never changes, it just shows up and the face of it looks different.