Comments like that have never studied under your tutition Mark. Your the single reason why im passing my CFA. Ignore them, your content is cherished by your students.
This man not only helped me pass level 1, but changed my bearish perspective going into next week with the SPY. "There is no other place to go". Sitting in cash. Cheers Mark, you're appreciated.
@@john-tr8jy Not extremely. A large portion of the material falls into the category of things you've already seen before, perhaps with a slight spin or deeper focus (assuming you've studied in Finance or Economics in university). You still have to put in a ton of hours to get through all the concepts.
Mark you were on the money about asset price inflation (physical and financial) and not so much retail price inflation. Simple concept applied beautifully, well done.
I have been in markets for 25 years and you are arguing what it has taken me that time to learn. Anyone that doesn't listen to this advice is not your audience and will continue to hand over $ to those that do listen to it. Great discussion of Intrinsic versus relative value. What scares me about that is it was what was argued in 1999/2000 and we know how that ended!
Another way to look at it is that earnings Q2 will be MORE reflective of the company’s value because we’ll finally know what they’ve been hiding under the bed
Mark Meldrum love your content but more importantly, I’ve searched high and low for the source of this song you used th-cam.com/video/upyZ1_dnWlk/w-d-xo.html help a guy out?
Daniel Ibanez Lau I disagree, I think if anything we will see impairments being exaggerated and provisions exaggerated. Reversing those provisions later to the PL will be a great way to increase earnings later down the line when management is accountable to the shareholders
However this is all accounting and it evens out over time. Best thing to do is not to actually look at any non cash items. Depreciation, impairments, provisions, accruals, gains or losses on disposals. Just look at cash
Ross Ringrose thats true but thats where using your own discretion comes in. End of the day I’d rather have more information than less information then i can decide for myself by sifting through it and deciding what’s important
MM, don't let the trolls discourage you in any bit or iota from releasing your content. Those idiots have no capacity to appreciate the wisdom your students cherish you for. Keep posting these, PLEASE!
Mark, I bought your one fee to completion a few years ago and I’ve listened to hundreds of hours of your voice. I enjoy every video, I have learned so much. Thanks!
The beauty contest is a great analogy. One of my professors referenced that and I had totally forgot about it - such a simple principle we could all use reminder of time to time. Thanks for this video Mark!
Nailed it, the reason people are angry with this market is because they are losing money or on the sidelines. People have been calling for a market crash for 10 years, they got one and no one made money from it. Thanks for the video Mark, good content
Another great video Mark! Thank you for taking the time. Lately I have been impatiently checking for new videos on your channel. The quality of your insights and teaching is highly addictive! You bring so much value that I guess you could actually charge for your content.
Hi Mark like your content and insights they are really intuitive. Just wanted to ask on your comment about focusing on where everyone else is thinking the market will go. Does this dismiss the idea of investing based on the intrinsic value?
Please ignore the nasty comments Sir ...... I'm sure all your students support your work n appreciate everything you doing to help us understand the financial markets in a better way !
Your videos are absolute gold, thank you so much for releasing it for free to subscribers. You are the reason why I passed CFA level 1 after 6 months of studying without any sort of background in finance. Thanks Professor. Everyone who posts meaningless hates comments on your videos don't know what they're talking about.
Hi Mark, if the general sentiment is a long only bias, what really explains the sell off that we saw during mid to early March? If the bond yields are low, if some one want to stick to their IPS of certain equity allocation, they would not sell off equities , right ? So does that mean that retail investors or other players caused the sell off based on the behaviour aspects ( fear) ? Based on this how can we explain flight to safety ? I am trying to understand who could be the big players influencing the mass sell off ? How much of this sell off can be attributed to the margin calls and contributions by hedge funds?
Mark, i started following you when i was completing my CSC long time ago but still enjoy your vids and straight forward and knowledgeable insight. Tyvm!
@19:17 love how you phrased that Thank you for breaking this down in an easy to understand manner. I really appreciate your vast expertise. Don't worry about comment sections, there is too much toxicity out there.
Mark thank you so much for this content. I have a question for you or anyone on this forum: At 32:00 you mention that yields on these shares have decreased and, as a result, prices have decreased as well. How is this possible if I thought yield was always inversely related to price? What am I missing?
These are rate reset preferreds - so as the dividend it pays decreases, its price will also decrease. Since they are expected to yield about 4.5%, at 45 cents a year, they would sell for $10, at 30 cents a year, they would then have to sell for $6.67. They pay 42 cents a year now so FV should be $9.33.
Hi Dr. Mark. I am also your student, currently enrolled in CFA level3. I have shorted the market at 2850 here are my reasons: 1: It acts as a hedge for rest of my portfolio. 2: No matter what valuation methodology you use, the china flu crisis has changed longterm outlook for world economy. So it effects your discount rates, assumptions of future cash flows, and a very big factor in valuing a perpetual cash flow(1st year earnings). 3: Exposed the fragility of the businesses running on excess leverage. People will realize that paying high multiples for such delicate companies is unjustified. 4: When FED bails out companies its an incentive for companies to not change! They bailed out banks now they have become structurally unprofitable and if not for credit card and ABS business they wont earn a dime. They will get disrupted by fintechs. They bailed out auto companies now they are being disrupted by tesla. And the previously bailed out industries have not generated great returns. 5: Creating is much more difficult than destroying(I am talking about jobs which are not coming back soon.) 6: Flows are important. March drawdown was aided due to liquidity concern. Now that the liquidity is back in the market, why will hedgefunds not short the market.
Devils' Advocate: 1. Ok. But you are now hedging gains. 2. You are seeing the equity market as an absolute market. See it as a relative market. Relative to bonds, where else are you going to get expected return? Selling futures does not push the market down. Only selling stocks does. 3. The Fed will backstop any company large enough to matter. 4. I don't get this argument. You are shorting the market because nothing has changed over the last 10 years of the longest bull run? 5. Job creation lies ahead, not matter how slow. Job destruction has already been done. You don't buy the past, you buy the future. 6. GDP was worse than expected, market is up 60 points. Bad news is good news since the Fed will do more. Good news is good news since the economy is getting better. No news is good news since its not bad news. Good news - market goes up. Bad news, market goes up. No news, market goes up.
@@MarkMeldrum Hi Dr. Mark Thanks for replying to my. comment! I understand that your time is important and I feel guilty about taking it. But, as someone who also studied Level 2 curriculum from you without asking any questions and taking any of your additional time, i feel slightly less guilty about it. I absolutely buy the argument that there is no other alternative to buying stocks. And the belief that there is a limit to what fed could do has seriously been challenged. But I still have faith in my hypothesis because if it was so simple then why did we have drawdowns in the past? If stocks go up on good news and bad news then why even study valuation or asset allocation just buy good companies. On Jobs: I am expecting jobless claims in millions for at-least 4 more weeks. Due to unemployment benefits unemployed are making more than what they would if they were working. Given that it is an election year they might not go back to work anytime soon. Although my conviction that the market will fall sharply anytime soon has weakend but I only feel confident in going long dollars and gold with the current macro environment.
Well put together sir, ignore the fickle minded people who aren't open to new information simply because it contradicts to their prior belief and perspectives. At times you just gotta let the dogs bark. Also, in law it's called "Ad hominem", attacking the person rather than their argument. It's just a pity that some people can't disagree without being disrespectful, I believe it's primarily due to their "need to be right" superceding their desire to learn "what's right".
Hi Mark, thanks a lot for sharing your in depth commentary on the current market scenario. I really hope that you keep continuing with it. Thanks a lot again.
Thank you for the content. I noticed you didn't touch on the significant amount of money printing/stimulus packages that are being added into circulation right now and how much of an effect you see it having on inflation. Is it accurate to think that as long as the spending via money printing offsets the reduced demand in the economy, it should have a net zero effect on inflation?
I get so excited when I see new videos from you Dr. Meldrum. You posted another video about REITs and I was wondering if you could share your thought on buying houses with the low mortgage rates and stagnant housing prices. Best
Loving your videos, analysis and logic. After being in the markets for 20+ years, I can say I'm an overnight success! I still think I have much to learn and love watching knowledgeable people discuss their interests and passion, there's always more to learn. I have tried to disagree with anything you have said... and failed,. Awesome videos and I'll be watching for a long time.
Great material, Mark. Thank you for your excellent insights. I appreciate your explanation of how the institutional money is always long and will continue to be. Question: If the big money is the majority of the market, who was doing the selling that brought the market down from Feb 19 to March 23? Thank you!
Thanks for the video Professor! One question, the widening on the TED spread does not worry you? When banks are afraid to lend money to each other, usually bad times are coming.
Thank you Mark for putting the time and effort into these videos to clearly explain the specifics behind all these concepts. My pen & paper are always ready when you post!
Thank you for your videos!! You are right, all the powerful players are pushing the stock markets higher and higher. The retail investor (like me) thinks: Wait a minute, the economy is crashing like 1929 and we are supposed to go higher? NO F*** WAY! And we'll all short the heck out of the indices and bet against the big players.. It's not the wisest idea to do, although it seems logical. Thanks for your point of view! Great Channel!
I used Mark's youtube during 2016 for CFA Level 1. Really really helpful and it helped me pass my exam. You are a really good tutor. Dont focus on the comments section. Till far, no one in Indonesia could help me understand CFA material in a simple manner. Thanks sir for helping us.
Thank you so much Mark, you are such a great mentor,I feel really fortunate to know you now and regret why I couldn't know you early. I only have CFA level 1 (that's when I got to your channel before) and I am doing CPA PEP now, planing to be a CPA doing public practice, I hope you all the best and don't get affect by angry comments! When I read others financials I always check the cash flow for the non cash items being deducted (like capital gain -etc), also, only Q4 will be audited and the same for the full year, before that, those un- audited statements has space to defer cost and accrual revenue before the adjustment in year end, and regard the statement, there is a materially allowed in auditing for the company to play around (mistake or error limit in financial that allowed if being detected), for income statement it is usually around 3%-7% in net income before tax, for reits that has huge property asset, about 1-3% of total asset.
Mark keep up the excellent work you do and don't let some haters destroy your mood! Block them and as you rightly said this channel is intellectually not for them.
Mark, thank you for another great video. Really appreciate the insight and ways to think about applying CFA material in the real world. On the topic of inflation do you have any opinion or thoughts on how we can assess the feds QE/Money Printing/Corp bailout initiative and its potential to debase the Dollar in the face of the Dollar's world reserve currency status. Do you see other countries issuing more dollar debt now that rates are zero or a potential de-globalization shift as countries play the political blame game for the Covid Impact? appreciate all your hard work and providing great content and food for great intellectual thought.
Hi Dr. Mark, as a CFA candidate these types of videos are a breath of fresh air as it applies what we are learning to real life cases. Furthermore, the difference between your videos and other quote-on-quote finance professionals on youtube is the fact that your views/opinions are yours. You don't sensationalise your opinions to get views and likes; in fact all your market videos have a focus on education as evidenced by the fact that you relate most points to specific areas in the CFA syllabus. I hope you can keep doing these videos in the future (I know you are constrained by time), but I and many others are finding these videos both interesting and useful.
I know it might be little bit ungrateful to answer from your end, but which data vendor would you be recommending the most for CFA candidates who are about to start with the trading? There are pletora in the market but given the comprehensivness of the data and value-for-money approach, do you have any proper suggestion? Thank you
:) I am glad the mood is much better now,compared with the beginning of the video, you're welcome. Anyways, regarding the question, I've shortlisted few of them,somehow Morningststar is showing solid. If I am wrong,kindly raise the flag.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Dr Meldrum. Could you please discuss in some detail which asset classes would you expect to perform well during inflationary periods such as it was the case in the 1970s? (we're aware gold, real assets, real bonds should do well but these are asset classes rather than specific vehicles so if you could provide examples that would be great). Thanks!!
@@MarkMeldrum China is doing it. I read that Canada will be doing it too (covid 19 is the catalyst). But in this article, it says that such digital currency can blunt Forex wars or weaponising USD, perhaps that's is when most countries have one, the information or price discovery is better and there is no need to use USD as bridge currency anymore. Maybe Prof you can shed some light on this. amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/china-starts-major-trial-of-state-run-digital-currency
Hi Mark, I only halfway through your video but some initial thoughts/questions. 1. WIth Q1/Q2 if it's as you suggest companies are "taking out the trash", are short term / earnings plays riskier since it's a giant accounting exercise for the companies? 2. Your sentiment about negative comments was something your forewarned yourself about in an earlier video, no surprises now I hope! 3. "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is the saying I keep reminding myself these days. Do you feel markets are irrational right now or actually intelligent since it appears to be forward looking? Good stuff as always, thanks!
3. I think markets are behavioural at all times. Behaviour can be overly optimistic, but actions can be rational to an optimistic person while appearing irrational to a pessimistic person.
Hi Mark, thanks for posting these videos. Based on my understanding, you believe stock prices were largely depressed because of the liquidity crisis we had in March, and not because of the underlying economic fundamenrals. If big money is always forward looking, and the Fed continues to support the markets the way that it has, does the current economic state ever truly matter at any single point in time as an indication for asset prices? Isnt this a dangerous way of thinking where the value of an entire market is tied to a future which has not transpired? Of course the expectation is that it will be better, which I large agree with on a 20-30 year time frame, but is it ever possible to go through a period say 5-10 years in duration where prices stay flat? Thanks.
It may have been 20 years ago. But the Fed has set a precedent of doing whatever it takes. With a Fed willing to spend trillions to keep asset prices inflated, why swim against the current. Until central banks get back to a single mandate of price stability, the asset valuation playbook needs to be re-written.
Hey Mark, thanks. But what do you think the limits to that are? everything you're saying makes sense, but isn't there a limit? or as long as they're not underperforming the sp, even if sp is down like 25%, they're comfortable?
Hey guys, if institutional money aka big money has a long only bias, why would market ever have a shock like the 2008 crisis or the Covid crisis? Wouldnt they stick to their beliefs that eventually the market will bounce back up and as a result, not sell their current holdings? Is the reason for selling for institutional money because they have to appease the fund investors by not showing massive amount of unrealized loss? Just looking to understand more about market movements! :D
The only time they move into cash in any significant way is to meet redemptions. Typically the would sell futures to lower their beta rather than just lose. Levered funds are the primary instigators of liquidity sell-offs.
Franklin Templeton has shut down its SIx debt fund. They largely invested in B rating CPs and other debts. So when the market collapsed, they do not have any buyer available to purchase these assets. What is your view on that?
With respect to rate-reset funds (or preferred funds in general) is there a lot of sector diversity among the individual issues, or are they concentrated within a few spaces (financials, energy, utilities, etc.)? Also, is the market deep in the sense that a retail investor would have to worry about liquidity?
Well, they are concentrated. Mostly financials. In Canada, the big banks are among the safest in the world. Enbridge is a big issuer as well. As far as liquidity, do you mean at the ETF Level, or at the holdings level of the ETF?
Thank you Dr.MM for your take on current market conditions. Very appreciated! What do you think about options-based etfs? For people who don't have the capital/margin to be able to buy/sell options, are options-based ETFs a good alternative? e.g. ZPW
Beginner here (obviously), the next question that begs is What are some good rate reset ETFs to buy in Canada? (Losing all my money is entirely my fault if I follow your opinion of course)
Mark Meldrum thank you Mark. I did well work wise, I learned by myself over time to avoid getting ripped off by advisors, now I hope to be knowledgeable enough to be totally self reliant, but don’t really know where to begin...your videos are very appreciated
Hi Mark, thanks for a great content! One question: We are seeing unprecedented level of unemployment claims, which is about to go above 30 million in the US. It seems like the market is saying that a large portion of those 30 million people will be re-employed by later this year. Is this a reasonable assumption?
Would you be able to comment on the housing bubbles in Canada (Vancouver/Toronto) and Australia (Sydney,...)? What are some of the indicators you're looking at (Chinese capital flow, immigration, unemployment, financial leverage) ? Or would you even call that a bubble at all? Thank you for your great content.
quick question Dr Mark, If one isnt certain about infaltion/deflation during this period, how's gold as an asset class ? Do you see it going up or sideways during these turbulent times ? Besides its low correlations with other asset classes would provide significant diversification benefits.
That is available in their IPS. I used to get annual reports from the pension fund when I was part of one and that report included Total assets and the asset allocation. So it’s available, just have to search for it.
Love your videos Mark. Keep this content coming! I agree with most of the arguments shared in this video. My only concern is that you did not evaluate a potential third assumption. What would the economic effects be of a Virus resurgence in later months or continued pockets of outbreak that force future lockdowns as well. Seems like this market analysis is only valid if you only assume new Coronavirus cases continue to drop, the economy opens, and treatment/resolution of the disease is achieved in the short term.
Hey Mark, what is your opinion on the thought of valuation falling as a result of the baby boomers gen exiting the market within the next 2-3 years? I heard about this concept and felt as if it has the potential to cause a significant impact on future prices.
Comments like that have never studied under your tutition Mark. Your the single reason why im passing my CFA. Ignore them, your content is cherished by your students.
This man not only helped me pass level 1, but changed my bearish perspective going into next week with the SPY. "There is no other place to go". Sitting in cash. Cheers Mark, you're appreciated.
@@Paul101111 quick question: is CFA level one difficult? not in terms of work ethic, but rigor/complexity beyond college finance courses
@@john-tr8jy Not extremely. A large portion of the material falls into the category of things you've already seen before, perhaps with a slight spin or deeper focus (assuming you've studied in Finance or Economics in university). You still have to put in a ton of hours to get through all the concepts.
great informatio. best cfa channel so far!
Outstading Video, Prof. Meldrum.!! Every single video of yours is simply amazing intellectual feast. Thank You!!
Mark you were on the money about asset price inflation (physical and financial) and not so much retail price inflation. Simple concept applied beautifully, well done.
I have been in markets for 25 years and you are arguing what it has taken me that time to learn. Anyone that doesn't listen to this advice is not your audience and will continue to hand over $ to those that do listen to it. Great discussion of Intrinsic versus relative value. What scares me about that is it was what was argued in 1999/2000 and we know how that ended!
Excellent video. Never waste a good crisis to sweep out the dead wood.
Thank you for doing topics like this. Very valuable
Thanks for the valuable information
Another way to look at it is that earnings Q2 will be MORE reflective of the company’s value because we’ll finally know what they’ve been hiding under the bed
Ah, good point.
Mark Meldrum love your content but more importantly, I’ve searched high and low for the source of this song you used th-cam.com/video/upyZ1_dnWlk/w-d-xo.html help a guy out?
Daniel Ibanez Lau I disagree, I think if anything we will see impairments being exaggerated and provisions exaggerated. Reversing those provisions later to the PL will be a great way to increase earnings later down the line when management is accountable to the shareholders
However this is all accounting and it evens out over time. Best thing to do is not to actually look at any non cash items. Depreciation, impairments, provisions, accruals, gains or losses on disposals. Just look at cash
Ross Ringrose thats true but thats where using your own discretion comes in. End of the day I’d rather have more information than less information then i can decide for myself by sifting through it and deciding what’s important
MM, don't let the trolls discourage you in any bit or iota from releasing your content. Those idiots have no capacity to appreciate the wisdom your students cherish you for. Keep posting these, PLEASE!
Your videos and discussion reflects deep insights. Wish there are experts like you in the African region with continuous content.
Great video
Mark, I bought your one fee to completion a few years ago and I’ve listened to hundreds of hours of your voice. I enjoy every video, I have learned so much. Thanks!
Awesome, thank you
The beauty contest is a great analogy. One of my professors referenced that and I had totally forgot about it - such a simple principle we could all use reminder of time to time. Thanks for this video Mark!
Great comment Mark!
Cheers Mark, great video
Mark is BOSS!!
Thanks very much...
Banks reported losses. Wells Fargo worst quarter since 2008. I came back to this video to see how this related to the past couple days and today.
Inspired me to purse the CFA after I finish up my 7 & 66. Really amazing content Mark!
Nailed it, the reason people are angry with this market is because they are losing money or on the sidelines. People have been calling for a market crash for 10 years, they got one and no one made money from it.
Thanks for the video Mark, good content
Great video Dr. Mark, please keep making these videos. These video are practical and makes CFA level content much more interesting to read/learn.
Another great video Mark! Thank you for taking the time. Lately I have been impatiently checking for new videos on your channel. The quality of your insights and teaching is highly addictive! You bring so much value that I guess you could actually charge for your content.
Hi Mark like your content and insights they are really intuitive. Just wanted to ask on your comment about focusing on where everyone else is thinking the market will go. Does this dismiss the idea of investing based on the intrinsic value?
Great video. Third one of yours I have seen. Very practical and strategic.
Please ignore the nasty comments Sir ...... I'm sure all your students support your work n appreciate everything you doing to help us understand the financial markets in a better way !
Your videos are absolute gold, thank you so much for releasing it for free to subscribers. You are the reason why I passed CFA level 1 after 6 months of studying without any sort of background in finance. Thanks Professor. Everyone who posts meaningless hates comments on your videos don't know what they're talking about.
You’re doing the Lord‘s work Mark. Great content.
Hi Mark, if the general sentiment is a long only bias, what really explains the sell off that we saw during mid to early March? If the bond yields are low, if some one want to stick to their IPS of certain equity allocation, they would not sell off equities , right ? So does that mean that retail investors or other players caused the sell off based on the behaviour aspects ( fear) ? Based on this how can we explain flight to safety ? I am trying to understand who could be the big players influencing the mass sell off ? How much of this sell off can be attributed to the margin calls and contributions by hedge funds?
Mark, i started following you when i was completing my CSC long time ago but still enjoy your vids and straight forward and knowledgeable insight.
Tyvm!
@19:17 love how you phrased that
Thank you for breaking this down in an easy to understand manner. I really appreciate your vast expertise. Don't worry about comment sections, there is too much toxicity out there.
Great video. You provide market insight in a format that isn’t available anywhere else on the internet
Mark, the burritos at Chipotle are smaller and the price is the same!
Mark thank you so much for this content. I have a question for you or anyone on this forum: At 32:00 you mention that yields on these shares have decreased and, as a result, prices have decreased as well. How is this possible if I thought yield was always inversely related to price? What am I missing?
These are rate reset preferreds - so as the dividend it pays decreases, its price will also decrease. Since they are expected to yield about 4.5%, at 45 cents a year, they would sell for $10, at 30 cents a year, they would then have to sell for $6.67. They pay 42 cents a year now so FV should be $9.33.
Thank you for your continued commentary Mark! Always some great points.
Hi Dr. Mark. I am also your student, currently enrolled in CFA level3.
I have shorted the market at 2850 here are my reasons:
1: It acts as a hedge for rest of my portfolio.
2: No matter what valuation methodology you use, the china flu crisis has changed longterm outlook for world economy. So it effects your discount rates, assumptions of future cash flows, and a very big factor in valuing a perpetual cash flow(1st year earnings).
3: Exposed the fragility of the businesses running on excess leverage. People will realize that paying high multiples for such delicate companies is unjustified.
4: When FED bails out companies its an incentive for companies to not change! They bailed out banks now they have become structurally unprofitable and if not for credit card and ABS business they wont earn a dime. They will get disrupted by fintechs. They bailed out auto companies now they are being disrupted by tesla. And the previously bailed out industries have not generated great returns.
5: Creating is much more difficult than destroying(I am talking about jobs which are not coming back soon.)
6: Flows are important. March drawdown was aided due to liquidity concern. Now that the liquidity is back in the market, why will hedgefunds not short the market.
Devils' Advocate:
1. Ok. But you are now hedging gains.
2. You are seeing the equity market as an absolute market. See it as a relative market. Relative to bonds, where else are you going to get expected return? Selling futures does not push the market down. Only selling stocks does.
3. The Fed will backstop any company large enough to matter.
4. I don't get this argument. You are shorting the market because nothing has changed over the last 10 years of the longest bull run?
5. Job creation lies ahead, not matter how slow. Job destruction has already been done. You don't buy the past, you buy the future.
6. GDP was worse than expected, market is up 60 points. Bad news is good news since the Fed will do more. Good news is good news since the economy is getting better. No news is good news since its not bad news. Good news - market goes up. Bad news, market goes up. No news, market goes up.
@@MarkMeldrum Hi Dr. Mark Thanks for replying to my. comment! I understand that your time is important and I feel guilty about taking it. But, as someone who also studied Level 2 curriculum from you without asking any questions and taking any of your additional time, i feel slightly less guilty about it.
I absolutely buy the argument that there is no other alternative to buying stocks. And the belief that there is a limit to what fed could do has seriously been challenged. But I still have faith in my hypothesis because if it was so simple then why did we have drawdowns in the past? If stocks go up on good news and bad news then why even study valuation or asset allocation just buy good companies.
On Jobs: I am expecting jobless claims in millions for at-least 4 more weeks. Due to unemployment benefits unemployed are making more than what they would if they were working. Given that it is an election year they might not go back to work anytime soon.
Although my conviction that the market will fall sharply anytime soon has weakend but I only feel confident in going long dollars and gold with the current macro environment.
Well put together sir, ignore the fickle minded people who aren't open to new information simply because it contradicts to their prior belief and perspectives. At times you just gotta let the dogs bark. Also, in law it's called "Ad hominem", attacking the person rather than their argument. It's just a pity that some people can't disagree without being disrespectful, I believe it's primarily due to their "need to be right" superceding their desire to learn "what's right".
you literally just summed up what is wrong with Twitter. "need to be right" superceding their desire to learn "what's right".SPOT ON
Hi Mark, thanks a lot for sharing your in depth commentary on the current market scenario. I really hope that you keep continuing with it. Thanks a lot again.
Honestly this man needs to be protected at all costs! Thank you very much for sharing your wisdom and knowledge.
i love your content!!!!
Excellent work!
Thank you for the content. I noticed you didn't touch on the significant amount of money printing/stimulus packages that are being added into circulation right now and how much of an effect you see it having on inflation. Is it accurate to think that as long as the spending via money printing offsets the reduced demand in the economy, it should have a net zero effect on inflation?
#1 teacher
Don't let those little thumb-gangster trolls that hide behind a keypad deflate your momentum. Your work is priceless!
Another solid video. Appreciate it so much Dr. Mark. Please keep them coming!
as always great video, love how you deep dive topics, please keep up with the videos (I see it becoming a series and becoming big in the future)
I get so excited when I see new videos from you Dr. Meldrum. You posted another video about REITs and I was wondering if you could share your thought on buying houses with the low mortgage rates and stagnant housing prices. Best
Loving your videos, analysis and logic. After being in the markets for 20+ years, I can say I'm an overnight success! I still think I have much to learn and love watching knowledgeable people discuss their interests and passion, there's always more to learn. I have tried to disagree with anything you have said... and failed,. Awesome videos and I'll be watching for a long time.
Thanks Mark. Great video. Keep it up. Happy to hear your thoughts on the current market dynamics.
Great material, Mark. Thank you for your excellent insights. I appreciate your explanation of how the institutional money is always long and will continue to be. Question: If the big money is the majority of the market, who was doing the selling that brought the market down from Feb 19 to March 23? Thank you!
Mostly levered funds. Long only funds most likely pulled their bids giving no support to the market.
Thank you for your content, in a time with such high noise to signal ratio wrt news, your videos provide the much needed clarity and guidance.
Hi Mark, what do you think about using technical analysis as well as some candle stick patterns to predict short term price movement?
I don't really use any of that.
Very good explanation on the current scenario with CFA content. Thank you Prof.
What rate reset ETF have you found with a ladder strategy?
ZPR
Thanks for your insight. Your style of explanation is very informative, concise and helpful.
You might be my singular most favorite business teacher, ever
MR Mark you have professional experince in teaching , bless you
Thanks for the video Professor! One question, the widening on the TED spread does not worry you? When banks are afraid to lend money to each other, usually bad times are coming.
Thank you Mark for putting the time and effort into these videos to clearly explain the specifics behind all these concepts. My pen & paper are always ready when you post!
Thank you for your videos!! You are right, all the powerful players are pushing the stock markets higher and higher. The retail investor (like me) thinks: Wait a minute, the economy is crashing like 1929 and we are supposed to go higher? NO F*** WAY! And we'll all short the heck out of the indices and bet against the big players.. It's not the wisest idea to do, although it seems logical. Thanks for your point of view! Great Channel!
I used Mark's youtube during 2016 for CFA Level 1. Really really helpful and it helped me pass my exam. You are a really good tutor. Dont focus on the comments section. Till far, no one in Indonesia could help me understand CFA material in a simple manner. Thanks sir for helping us.
You're the best, Mark!
Thank you so much Mark, you are such a great mentor,I feel really fortunate to know you now and regret why I couldn't know you early. I only have CFA level 1 (that's when I got to your channel before) and I am doing CPA PEP now, planing to be a CPA doing public practice, I hope you all the best and don't get affect by angry comments! When I read others financials I always check the cash flow for the non cash items being deducted (like capital gain -etc), also, only Q4 will be audited and the same for the full year, before that, those un- audited statements has space to defer cost and accrual revenue before the adjustment in year end, and regard the statement, there is a materially allowed in auditing for the company to play around (mistake or error limit in financial that allowed if being detected), for income statement it is usually around 3%-7% in net income before tax, for reits that has huge property asset, about 1-3% of total asset.
Great content pls keep going DrMark.
Thank you again Mark ! Amazing Video!!
Mark keep up the excellent work you do and don't let some haters destroy your mood! Block them and as you rightly said this channel is intellectually not for them.
This was really excellent, thank you.
Thank You 🙏🏽
What do you think of elon's too high statement mark ?
Irresponsible.
Love these videos! Thank you sir!
Great video Mark - keep it going. We are following & engaging. Good work.
Mark, thank you for another great video. Really appreciate the insight and ways to think about applying CFA material in the real world. On the topic of inflation do you have any opinion or thoughts on how we can assess the feds QE/Money Printing/Corp bailout initiative and its potential to debase the Dollar in the face of the Dollar's world reserve currency status. Do you see other countries issuing more dollar debt now that rates are zero or a potential de-globalization shift as countries play the political blame game for the Covid Impact? appreciate all your hard work and providing great content and food for great intellectual thought.
Thank you for raising the question! I am wondering the same...
Hi Dr. Mark, as a CFA candidate these types of videos are a breath of fresh air as it applies what we are learning to real life cases. Furthermore, the difference between your videos and other quote-on-quote finance professionals on youtube is the fact that your views/opinions are yours. You don't sensationalise your opinions to get views and likes; in fact all your market videos have a focus on education as evidenced by the fact that you relate most points to specific areas in the CFA syllabus. I hope you can keep doing these videos in the future (I know you are constrained by time), but I and many others are finding these videos both interesting and useful.
I know it might be little bit ungrateful to answer from your end, but which data vendor would you be recommending the most for CFA candidates who are about to start with the trading? There are pletora in the market but given the comprehensivness of the data and value-for-money approach, do you have any proper suggestion? Thank you
I am the best, period. Hands down.
:) I am glad the mood is much better now,compared with the beginning of the video, you're welcome. Anyways, regarding the question, I've shortlisted few of them,somehow Morningststar is showing solid. If I am wrong,kindly raise the flag.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Dr Meldrum. Could you please discuss in some detail which asset classes would you expect to perform well during inflationary periods such as it was the case in the 1970s? (we're aware gold, real assets, real bonds should do well but these are asset classes rather than specific vehicles so if you could provide examples that would be great). Thanks!!
The rate-reset preferreds I mentioned are good. Some stocks have pricing power, like Visa, MC.
@@MarkMeldrum Great, what about REITs as a vehicle to play real assets?
Hi, Dr. Mark, May I know how do you think about bitcoin and its price ?
Until central banks do it, it’s just a fad.
@@MarkMeldrum Thank you for your reply. Appreciated.
@@MarkMeldrum China is doing it. I read that Canada will be doing it too (covid 19 is the catalyst). But in this article, it says that such digital currency can blunt Forex wars or weaponising USD, perhaps that's is when most countries have one, the information or price discovery is better and there is no need to use USD as bridge currency anymore. Maybe Prof you can shed some light on this. amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/china-starts-major-trial-of-state-run-digital-currency
Hi Mark, I only halfway through your video but some initial thoughts/questions.
1. WIth Q1/Q2 if it's as you suggest companies are "taking out the trash", are short term / earnings plays riskier since it's a giant accounting exercise for the companies?
2. Your sentiment about negative comments was something your forewarned yourself about in an earlier video, no surprises now I hope!
3. "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is the saying I keep reminding myself these days. Do you feel markets are irrational right now or actually intelligent since it appears to be forward looking?
Good stuff as always, thanks!
1. I would think most analysts will look past the non-cash charges and focus on operating profit or CFO.
3. I think markets are behavioural at all times. Behaviour can be overly optimistic, but actions can be rational to an optimistic person while appearing irrational to a pessimistic person.
Hi Mark, thanks for posting these videos. Based on my understanding, you believe stock prices were largely depressed because of the liquidity crisis we had in March, and not because of the underlying economic fundamenrals. If big money is always forward looking, and the Fed continues to support the markets the way that it has, does the current economic state ever truly matter at any single point in time as an indication for asset prices? Isnt this a dangerous way of thinking where the value of an entire market is tied to a future which has not transpired? Of course the expectation is that it will be better, which I large agree with on a 20-30 year time frame, but is it ever possible to go through a period say 5-10 years in duration where prices stay flat?
Thanks.
It may have been 20 years ago. But the Fed has set a precedent of doing whatever it takes. With a Fed willing to spend trillions to keep asset prices inflated, why swim against the current. Until central banks get back to a single mandate of price stability, the asset valuation playbook needs to be re-written.
i like the application of cfa to real world scenario. Keep doing you and I love you man!
Mark, please dont waste time on stupid comments. We appreciate what youre doing, this has become my new favorite youtube channel.
Thank you so much for your content Mark, we live in a world where not enough smart people are going viral, this channel is a goldmine
Very true. I want this channel to be popular among students, but these algorithms will bring some bad apples
great stuff
Hey Mark, thanks. But what do you think the limits to that are? everything you're saying makes sense, but isn't there a limit? or as long as they're not underperforming the sp, even if sp is down like 25%, they're comfortable?
Really informative ..as always
Dear Dr Mark
Please recommend a book on this concept of Who is playing the game / Big Dollars
- Thanks
Hey guys, if institutional money aka big money has a long only bias, why would market ever have a shock like the 2008 crisis or the Covid crisis? Wouldnt they stick to their beliefs that eventually the market will bounce back up and as a result, not sell their current holdings? Is the reason for selling for institutional money because they have to appease the fund investors by not showing massive amount of unrealized loss? Just looking to understand more about market movements! :D
The only time they move into cash in any significant way is to meet redemptions. Typically the would sell futures to lower their beta rather than just lose. Levered funds are the primary instigators of liquidity sell-offs.
Franklin Templeton has shut down its SIx debt fund. They largely invested in B rating CPs and other debts. So when the market collapsed, they do not have any buyer available to purchase these assets. What is your view on that?
With respect to rate-reset funds (or preferred funds in general) is there a lot of sector diversity among the individual issues, or are they concentrated within a few spaces (financials, energy, utilities, etc.)? Also, is the market deep in the sense that a retail investor would have to worry about liquidity?
Well, they are concentrated. Mostly financials. In Canada, the big banks are among the safest in the world. Enbridge is a big issuer as well. As far as liquidity, do you mean at the ETF Level, or at the holdings level of the ETF?
@@MarkMeldrum Holdings level of the etf
Sir, as you pointed out at 28:02 that you see an asset price inflation, real estate in particular; what does this mean to the REIT's ?
Thank you
REITs will list assets at fair value based on NOI and a cap rate. By real estate, I meant personal residential.
@@MarkMeldrum a
Thank you Dr.MM for your take on current market conditions. Very appreciated!
What do you think about options-based etfs? For people who don't have the capital/margin to be able to buy/sell options, are options-based ETFs a good alternative? e.g. ZPW
Beginner here (obviously), the next question that begs is What are some good rate reset ETFs to buy in Canada? (Losing all my money is entirely my fault if I follow your opinion of course)
There are a few, this is a good Google search. Laddered rate reset preferred ETFs.
Mark Meldrum thank you Mark. I did well work wise, I learned by myself over time to avoid getting ripped off by advisors, now I hope to be knowledgeable enough to be totally self reliant, but don’t really know where to begin...your videos are very appreciated
Hi Mark, thanks for a great content! One question: We are seeing unprecedented level of unemployment claims, which is about to go above 30 million in the US. It seems like the market is saying that a large portion of those 30 million people will be re-employed by later this year. Is this a reasonable assumption?
No, not reasonable. A portion of those lost jobs are not coming back. Maybe 10% unemployment by end of 2020.
Would you be able to comment on the housing bubbles in Canada (Vancouver/Toronto) and Australia (Sydney,...)? What are some of the indicators you're looking at (Chinese capital flow, immigration, unemployment, financial leverage) ? Or would you even call that a bubble at all? Thank you for your great content.
quick question Dr Mark, If one isnt certain about infaltion/deflation during this period, how's gold as an asset class ? Do you see it going up or sideways during these turbulent times ? Besides its low correlations with other asset classes would provide significant diversification benefits.
I know nothing of gold or its value. I know I don’t get paid for holding it - all I can hope for is higher prices.
Hi Mark. Thanks for the insights. Hope u keep doing it. Just wondering if u know where to find high level info on asset allocations of pension funds
That is available in their IPS. I used to get annual reports from the pension fund when I was part of one and that report included Total assets and the asset allocation. So it’s available, just have to search for it.
Mark Meldrum thank u!
This video somehow made me feel better after getting steamrolled shorting the market this past month.
Hello,
I was looking into ZPR a couple days ago. Looks like this is the one you are talking about? Thank you for these videos!
ZPR has great exposure to a lot of what Mike was talking about here! Added into my portfolio the other day
I own ZPR, yes.
Dear Mark
Please which looks you advice me to read about CFA, also I am asking is it enagouh to following your vedios to success,
Thank you
Love your videos Mark. Keep this content coming! I agree with most of the arguments shared in this video. My only concern is that you did not evaluate a potential third assumption. What would the economic effects be of a Virus resurgence in later months or continued pockets of outbreak that force future lockdowns as well. Seems like this market analysis is only valid if you only assume new Coronavirus cases continue to drop, the economy opens, and treatment/resolution of the disease is achieved in the short term.
Hey Mark, what is your opinion on the thought of valuation falling as a result of the baby boomers gen exiting the market within the next 2-3 years? I heard about this concept and felt as if it has the potential to cause a significant impact on future prices.