Bayesian Statistics with Hannah Fry

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ธ.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 669

  • @JonathanCorwin
    @JonathanCorwin 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2167

    "Everytime you're throwing the ball you're getting more information about... " where the table isn't

    • @rititone
      @rititone 5 ปีที่แล้ว +181

      Ah, the Parker Throw...

    • @MrRyanroberson1
      @MrRyanroberson1 5 ปีที่แล้ว +67

      Parkesian statistics

    • @ekinteko
      @ekinteko 5 ปีที่แล้ว +31

      I don't know why they didn't just play Battle Ships... its based on Bayesian reasoning!

    • @jursamaj
      @jursamaj 5 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      "where the table isn't"
      It's a Parker Square table…

    • @amante2443
      @amante2443 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@ekinteko I believe you and your comment to be genius!!! 😱
      I believe this based on my never having thought of this example nor have I seen anyone else explain bayesian statistics with such a sublimely simple example. I, and the others, all use really stupidly complicated examples.
      Note, I'm not saying I'm a genius. But I'd bet, at least one of the other mathematicians I've referred to regarding Bayesian statistics, might be.
      BUT @Kangal, like Rev. Bayes (who I believe to be a believer) and Pascal (who I'd wager was also a believer), I believe you and your comment to be genius.
      If there wasn't a virus going around I'd kiss you. 😘

  • @framegrace1
    @framegrace1 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1320

    - "What's the chance you find me here?"
    - "It's the first time I've found you here, so I don't know"
    I'll use that joke, with your permission...

    • @standupmaths
      @standupmaths  5 ปีที่แล้ว +303

      It’s all yours!

    • @nikitaelizarov7444
      @nikitaelizarov7444 5 ปีที่แล้ว +60

      That's a very frequentist approach to chances. After his conversion to Bayesianism, Matt wouldn't have said that ;)

    • @JorgetePanete
      @JorgetePanete 5 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      well, we know that it's more than 0%

    • @lukasmuller6206
      @lukasmuller6206 5 ปีที่แล้ว +18

      Chance is about predicting so in fact we actually know that the chance of them meeting is 100% since it happened, therefore has become a fact.

    • @danielemessina1979
      @danielemessina1979 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      "It's the first time I come here" would have been funnier. :D

  • @Adam_Floyd
    @Adam_Floyd 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1077

    “How good are you at catch” “I understand the theory” 😂😂😂

    • @elvis_mello
      @elvis_mello 5 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      My history in experimental physics 😂😂

  • @tasherratt
    @tasherratt 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1217

    Hannah is getting plenty of practice as to being a mum of a toddler here.

    • @янонея-ш4я
      @янонея-ш4я 3 ปีที่แล้ว +16

      This might be the best comment I've ever seen on TH-cam

    • @EcceJack
      @EcceJack 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Ahahahaha 😂😂😂 this REALLY got me, for some reason!

    • @amante2443
      @amante2443 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      I've watched this video several times and I can't believe I've never noticed this comment. And when I did, I burst out laughing and nearly knocked over my cup of coffee onto a mum with a toddler on the next table (I'm in a cafe)? What's the statistical probability of that (i.e. there being a mum and the toddler while reading a comment about a mum and a [metaphorical? toddler)?

    • @thecanmanification
      @thecanmanification ปีที่แล้ว +2

      “Its okay, we can do it again 😃”

  • @falsenames
    @falsenames 3 ปีที่แล้ว +124

    Can I just have Hannah and Matt explain everything to me? The sheer enthusiasm for math on display is infectious.

  • @martijnvanweele6204
    @martijnvanweele6204 5 ปีที่แล้ว +283

    Schrödinger, Descartes and Bayes walk into a bar. The bartender asks: "Would you gentlemen like a drink?"
    Schrödinger says: "Yes and no."
    Descartes says: "I don't think so."
    Bayes says: "I'm not certain."

  • @ugabugasuga1
    @ugabugasuga1 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2372

    Matt Parker: Making a pregnant woman repeatedly bend down and pick up his throws, while he is sitting in a comfy chair :P

    • @Spiros219
      @Spiros219 5 ปีที่แล้ว +62

      I didn't notice she was pregnant

    • @chrisray1567
      @chrisray1567 5 ปีที่แล้ว +549

      Parker chivalry

    • @AntonoirJacques
      @AntonoirJacques 5 ปีที่แล้ว +205

      @@Peter_1986 You mean like being near a staircase?

    • @Sibula
      @Sibula 5 ปีที่แล้ว +38

      I didn't even realize she was pregnant before your comment. Now that I looked again it's so obvious...

    • @thebugbear
      @thebugbear 5 ปีที่แล้ว +157

      @@Peter_1986 I don't think they were saying it was dangerous, just a little rude since it's harder to bend down when you're pregnant :)

  • @bellsTheorem1138
    @bellsTheorem1138 5 ปีที่แล้ว +110

    "Embrace uncertainty, but quantify it" is my new motto.

    • @Laurabeck329
      @Laurabeck329 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      This has the same energy as "Take it easy, but take it"

  • @L0j1k
    @L0j1k 5 ปีที่แล้ว +63

    "And thanks to the owners of the house! Turns out, one of them's a mathematician..."
    This is the least surprising statement I think I've ever heard in my life.

  • @bartjennings
    @bartjennings 5 ปีที่แล้ว +372

    Some Parker throws right there

    • @TheDiggster13
      @TheDiggster13 5 ปีที่แล้ว +25

      In fairness to him he did give it a go, even though he wasn't entirely successful

    • @Bodyknock
      @Bodyknock 5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      Clearly it was a Parker Square Table. 🙂

  • @xela8384
    @xela8384 5 ปีที่แล้ว +194

    I've never seen Bayes' fundamental insight so amusingly explained. Nor so clearly. Nicely done! (Also: congratulations to Dr Fry on the forthcoming addition to your family!)

    • @karlkastor
      @karlkastor 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      I have heard that throwing the ball on the table example before, but actually seeing it being done makes it so much clearer to understand!

    • @warrenyazzie9975
      @warrenyazzie9975 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Have you read the paper they are referring to? This experiment is discussed in Section II. It's one of those things you have to draw on paper or do in real life to get a proper feel for what Bayes' saying. What I found really interesting is that Rice's motivation for submitting this paper was for it to be used as proof of Intelligent Design. 😮

    • @topilinkala1594
      @topilinkala1594 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@warrenyazzie9975 Actually I'd say that Bayesian view excludes gods alltogether. There's no confidentialy, that you can measure, about exitence of a physical god. There is good examples of a methaphorical gods exitance though. Look for example all churches and temples and what not and ask if the builders had a god in their mind when they did those. But a mtphorical god is like justice: it exists only in deeds and thoughts of men.

  • @faielgila7375
    @faielgila7375 3 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    6:00 "you're actually remarkably consistent"
    "Consistency is only a virtue if you're not a screw-up" -Grant Sanderson

    • @fahrenheit2101
      @fahrenheit2101 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Can always count on Grant to come up with the goods!

  • @micahlong2073
    @micahlong2073 5 ปีที่แล้ว +159

    6:03 One mathematician tells another mathematician to be more random.
    The irony here is delightful.

    • @user-ky6vw5up9m
      @user-ky6vw5up9m 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Micah Long why ironic?

    • @AtticAurel
      @AtticAurel 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@user-ky6vw5up9m
      I think because you can be either random or not. It's hard to be "more" random. You could increase the sample size of course or the step size, but random is random, it doesn't become more random.

    • @davidarredondo2106
      @davidarredondo2106 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@AtticAurel I was surprised to learn that “random” isn’t well defined mathematically.
      But probability is, and comparing probability distributions is well researched, to say the least.

  • @evilotto9200
    @evilotto9200 5 ปีที่แล้ว +202

    4:10 Hannah's exasperated declaration of "Try" should cause you lot to call and thank your mothers.

    • @aj76257
      @aj76257 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I love your profile picture and username! I wish more people were familiar with Berzerk.

    • @assafabram9649
      @assafabram9649 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      Hanna Try

  • @NoNTr1v1aL
    @NoNTr1v1aL 5 ปีที่แล้ว +305

    "It's all about that Bayes" - Thomas Bayes probably.

    • @karlkastor
      @karlkastor 5 ปีที่แล้ว +29

      There's a paper titled "Drum'n'Bayes". They use Bayesian networks for pattern recognition on music.

    • @judicator375
      @judicator375 5 ปีที่แล้ว +17

      "Its all about that Bayes - no table" :-)

    • @panda4247
      @panda4247 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      I think, you guys may be a little bit biased.

    • @PaulG.x
      @PaulG.x 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Not about the treble

  • @ditzfough
    @ditzfough 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Anybody else find Hannahs voice soothing? Intelligent and beautiful but the voice gets me everytime.

  • @rafbambam
    @rafbambam 3 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    It is official YOU DO NEED TO DO MORE WITH BOTH OFF YOU. The interaction (and faces drown) between you guys is hilarius to watch, and we are learning at the same time. Great video.
    Greetings from Belgium.

  • @thontor
    @thontor 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    This is the first i've seen or heard of Hannah Fry. I'm already a fan. She is awesome.

  • @mrswats
    @mrswats 5 ปีที่แล้ว +25

    Always love to see Hannah Fry! Loved this one as well.

  • @igorperfeitovivo
    @igorperfeitovivo 3 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    They always have so much fun together, that it spreads and reaches us through.

  • @jwb_
    @jwb_ 5 ปีที่แล้ว +114

    Literally bought Hello World an hour before this video was released. Now I have 2 great maths books to get absorbed into. Maths books are like buses, you wait years for a good one and then 2 turn up almost at once!

    • @karlkastor
      @karlkastor 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      Do you think Hannah's book is good for actual computer programmers? I would read it if it is more about the ethics and psychology relating to algorithms, but if half of it is trying to explain algorithms in laymen's terms I would not enjoy it.

    • @varbenovk
      @varbenovk 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      quote of the century

    • @amber1862
      @amber1862 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@karlkastor It's definitely more about the ethics of the algorithms used in our modern world, and she rarely explains what the algorithms are and how they work (only enough to potentially peak interest so you go off and Google it). It's not a book to read if you want answers and definitions, it's a book that presents questions you didn't even think about asking in the first place. It's terrifying and hilarious, but mostly terrifying; I highly recommend it :).

  • @TacoDude314
    @TacoDude314 5 ปีที่แล้ว +116

    I wish Hannah Fry had a TH-cam channel

    • @ViatorRex
      @ViatorRex 5 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      At least we've got "The Curious Cases of Rutherford and Fry"

    • @blueskyredkite
      @blueskyredkite 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@ViatorRex Oh! Is that this Rutherford?!

  • @wittycommentator
    @wittycommentator 5 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    When I was in high school statistics we were talking about Bayesian probability, and one of my classmates asked "Isn't that a black asian?", and my teacher said "no I believe that's blasian" and I will always remember that interaction.

  • @twinklestar3556
    @twinklestar3556 5 ปีที่แล้ว +49

    Love your silly mathloving face! That smirk and side eye gets me every time!

  • @jarredallen3228
    @jarredallen3228 5 ปีที่แล้ว +214

    "I was a certaintist...I don't know."
    You don't sound like a very good certaintist.

    • @bsharpmajorscale
      @bsharpmajorscale 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      He was certain that he didn't know!

    • @goranandersson3544
      @goranandersson3544 5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      I know that I was a certainist, but now I'm fairly confident that I am a bayesianist.

    • @RaglansElectricBaboon
      @RaglansElectricBaboon 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Bayesian sounds like a colour. I'm not sure what colour.

    • @ratlinggull2223
      @ratlinggull2223 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@RaglansElectricBaboon Beige-ian.

  • @77Chester77
    @77Chester77 5 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    Matt and Hannah are a great team, I enjoyed this video very much.

  • @rickseiden1
    @rickseiden1 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I know it's been a long time since this came out, but I have to say, the best part of this video is watching two good friends have fun with each other!

  • @marctelfer6159
    @marctelfer6159 5 ปีที่แล้ว +39

    Another Parker/Fry video? Ummm, hell yes! Love you two :D

    • @_zelatrix
      @_zelatrix 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      They should write a joint book titled "Tinker, Tailor, Parker, Fry"

    • @vigilantcosmicpenguin8721
      @vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@_zelatrix I'm sure they could find two mathematicians with apt names who can be given credit as co-authors.

  • @Dixavd
    @Dixavd 5 ปีที่แล้ว +84

    A video with two hosts where one is sitting down for most of the video while the heavily pregnant woman has to stand the whole time... Fine work, Matt! In all seriousness, this was a lovely video and the playfulness between you two is infectious.

    • @user-vn7ce5ig1z
      @user-vn7ce5ig1z 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      She's the expert, so she's the one that came up with the experiment.

  • @devtech1000
    @devtech1000 5 ปีที่แล้ว +70

    congrats for the baby!

    • @Zolbat
      @Zolbat 5 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      And to the father

    • @LordNezghul
      @LordNezghul 5 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      Yeah, another person to suffer on this world.

    • @lunafoxfire
      @lunafoxfire 5 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      @@LordNezghul oof edgy

    • @joshuawan7004
      @joshuawan7004 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@LordNezghul only Jesus can end our suffering

    • @JorgetePanete
      @JorgetePanete 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@joshuawan7004 lol wtf?

  • @olik136
    @olik136 5 ปีที่แล้ว +149

    they should make an audiobook together where they simultaneously read their 2 books...

    • @CraftQueenJr
      @CraftQueenJr 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Oh god the cacophony...

    • @milesroe5082
      @milesroe5082 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Check out "Numberphile"

    • @vigilantcosmicpenguin8721
      @vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Someone should write two books so that they synchronize when read together.

    • @ighao6032
      @ighao6032 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      PLEASE I would love it

  • @yuvalne
    @yuvalne 5 ปีที่แล้ว +87

    Parker throw (I had to)

  • @NanoDomino1
    @NanoDomino1 5 ปีที่แล้ว +39

    I would have loved to see Matt throw the second ball directly on the first ball and Hanna tell him that the coordinates of the balls are exactly the same.
    Great video! :D

  • @mattstuart2429
    @mattstuart2429 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    I love this! I'm taking a class on Bayesian statistics now, and I would consider myself a Bayesian vs a Frequentist.

  • @nialltracey2599
    @nialltracey2599 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Excellent, excellent, excellent video.
    I studied Computer Science at uni, with a little bit of AI.
    Bayesian statistics was important, but I never knew where Bayes was coming from. My eyes are well and truly opened.
    And of course, many congratulations to Dr. Fry.

  • @adamsbja
    @adamsbja 5 ปีที่แล้ว +15

    "If you had an infinite number of throws, and you could throw them perfectly randomly..." he would miss the table most of the time.
    It's like the old joke (well, I'm old and I was told the joke) of a physicist trying to explain the Monte Carlo method in a bar, so they describe it in terms of throwing darts at a dartboard. Come back next week and the bartender says "welcome back, I loved your explanation. Has your aim gotten any better?"

  • @bordershader
    @bordershader 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Apropos of nothing, please thank the owners of that house for letting us glimpse inside. It's beautiful!
    Also, congrats to Dr Fry. I genuinely didn't notice until I read these comments.

  • @KuyVonBraun
    @KuyVonBraun 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    You guys need your own tv show 💜

  • @benjaminplatt4109
    @benjaminplatt4109 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Always love videos with Hannah, congrats on her upcoming family too

  • @zip95843
    @zip95843 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Their duo is killing it! Good match!

  • @RafaelAcurcio
    @RafaelAcurcio 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    The humor is on point. Love the videos

  • @BobfromSydney
    @BobfromSydney 5 ปีที่แล้ว +14

    "As I throw more balls my confidence in my throwing skills lowers asymptotically towards zero."

  • @hadianasliwa9161
    @hadianasliwa9161 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Love the way, Hannah explains things

  • @danielemessina1979
    @danielemessina1979 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Used these concepts a lot while studying analog telecommunications. A typical question is: given that I am receiving X what's the probability that Y was transmitted.

  • @GuanoLad
    @GuanoLad 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Statistics indicate Hannah Fry will always be a great guest.

  • @jedem.4158
    @jedem.4158 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    If Hannah, Matt, and Grant (Sanderson) did a video together that would be amazing. Such lovely humans who share their unbridled joy of mathematics make my day.

  • @Rogue_Fox
    @Rogue_Fox 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Mr. Parker I absolutely love your videos! And Hannah being in this one makes it even better!

  • @deeliciousplum
    @deeliciousplum 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Wionderful and clear explanation. And, a priceless end skit of sharing about two books.

  • @kujmous
    @kujmous 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Both of you keep math fascinating, and you're both loved for it.

  • @BillyEilish
    @BillyEilish 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    You guys are great, Matt. Love the dynamic between the duo!

  • @MichaelCampbell01
    @MichaelCampbell01 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    You 2 are absolutely delightful.

  • @muyiwaiyowu
    @muyiwaiyowu 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Just reading the part of “Hello World” where Bayesian Statistics was discussed, and it reminded me of this video.
    This is probably what prompted me to buy the book in the first place!
    Took me a while, but I finally got around to reading it.
    Gotta pick up Humble Pi next!

  • @perman17
    @perman17 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Excellent video. Thank you Dr Fry and Matt!

  • @Tahoza
    @Tahoza 5 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    The term I hear used that is more in contrast to Bayesian is "frequentist" just FYI. This is more looking at the things in a more Gaussian or Fischer way.

  • @Varksterable
    @Varksterable 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Finally! All that stuff I did in a previous job makes sense. I could do the computer stuff, I could do the mathematics stuff; but now I think I actually SEE what it's all about.
    Great job. I expect no less from this channel, but this one really struck a chord.
    😍Hannah
    🤩Matt
    The wrap-up from 11:00 or so should be a compulsory part of the education system.

  • @karlkastor
    @karlkastor 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I just wrote an exam on Bayesian/Belief networks. It's a very interesting topic. They are very useful. Like Hannah's self-driving car example, robots can never know for sure if their sensory inputs are correct, so you need to account for uncertainty by using Bayesian nets. Matt could do a video on Hidden Markov Models, which are the simplest Belief networks to understand.

  • @myspacetimesaucegoog5632
    @myspacetimesaucegoog5632 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Bayes rocks! And probably rules too. Thanks for such a fun rundown on the basic approach

  • @SianNadine
    @SianNadine 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Really appreciate this because that equation is on my wall as I’m revising statistics for my semester 2 first year exam and this has given me some insight

  • @TimMeep
    @TimMeep 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    A fun, interesting, educational duo - the king and queen of mathematical edutainment

  • @Scapestoat
    @Scapestoat 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    You guys look like you're having so much fun!
    I love it~

  • @BritishBeachcomber
    @BritishBeachcomber 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Two of my three favourite Mathologers having fun.

  • @RexGalilae
    @RexGalilae 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    When she told Parker that he was being very consistent with his throws, he could tone down the modifications to his x1, x2, x3... values, getting a more accurate result in the process.
    More rigorously, small deviations in y must result in small corrections to x from my understanding.

  • @sevret313
    @sevret313 5 ปีที่แล้ว +29

    You should use this uncertainty to save your Parker Square.

  • @brutalkangaroo30
    @brutalkangaroo30 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Hannah and Matt are a great combo for making math fun!

  • @sam08g16
    @sam08g16 5 ปีที่แล้ว +76

    I don't care what the video is about, I read Hannah Fry I click.

    • @4trym
      @4trym 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      She's just lovely!

  • @stephenbenner4353
    @stephenbenner4353 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I think it is worth watching Matt’s videos more than once sometimes. I thought he was just being silly updating his belief about the house, but I had forgotten that by the end of the video. But watching again (showing it to my niece) I noticed right away what he was doing.

  • @jasonmant
    @jasonmant 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    These 2 fabulous ppl would be on my fantasy dinner table guest list so much fun thank you

  • @beningram1811
    @beningram1811 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I feel like there is naturally going to be a bias introduced if the thrower is the one guessing where the subsequent ones are in relation to their first throw. This is because, the thrower is aware that their first throw hit the table, and without being able to SEE the table, will try to mimic their initial throw (because you'll otherwise get a lot of instances of "Did not hit the table try again", and they will be trying to help the experiment proceed).
    To alleviate this, i suggest adding a third person, who will only throw AFTER the first throw, and therefore will not have that initial throw to base their subsequent throws on, but will still receive the same information.

  • @peppybocan
    @peppybocan 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    and now on Kolmogorov statistics!

  • @msaadnadeem
    @msaadnadeem 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    This is the content I subscribed for and I'm definately not disappointed

  • @raindog9862
    @raindog9862 ปีที่แล้ว

    This is one of my favorite things on youtube

  • @IpsitDhal
    @IpsitDhal 5 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    these conversation is like two mathematicians flirting each other.

  • @Galakyllz
    @Galakyllz 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This was great! Thanks for the maths and the laughs.

  • @cutza7
    @cutza7 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Why was the third throw halfway east and west? It looked pretty similar to me

  • @keyem4504
    @keyem4504 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    The two of you are so entertaining. I really love it. 😁

  • @Cr42yguy
    @Cr42yguy 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Hannah and Matt in one video? Great start into the weekend!

  • @kimghanson
    @kimghanson 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Am I misunderstanding or is this essentially how we play sports or for that matter any physical activity? For instance you are about to attempt to score a goal in football (soccer). You must judge the position of the goal and the keeper as well as his body position and probable future movements. As well, other players may be a factor with the same considerations as the keeper. You must judge the ball. Is it at rest, rolling or bouncing? If bouncing you must decide at what height you will make contact. You also must judge your own self. Off balance or ideal striking position and your own skill. Weather can be a factor too. In other words, in the physical world we are all Beyesians.

  • @Confuseddave
    @Confuseddave 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Speaking of "what were you before"; at least in some corners of science, the opposite of Bayesianism (or perhaps more accurately, the paradigm Bayesianism is generally set up as an alternative to) is Frequentism.
    I remain to be convinced that there is a meaningful difference in practice.

    • @hjhornbeck
      @hjhornbeck 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Try this, it convinced me: jakevdp.github.io/blog/2014/06/06/frequentism-and-bayesianism-2-when-results-differ/

  • @ayushthada9544
    @ayushthada9544 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    This is the best video I have seen this month.

  • @titleloanman
    @titleloanman 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Hannah Fry is a treasure

  • @Cory_Springer
    @Cory_Springer 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    8:26 Matt's face when he imagines having an infinite number of throws

  • @RiCOW164
    @RiCOW164 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    probably my favourite mathematician and my favourite school of inference in one video.. Matt Parker, you've done it again

  • @kimschroder9354
    @kimschroder9354 5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Matt, if you had to guess, what would you say is the bigger number:
    A: Tree(3)!
    B: Tree(4)

    • @tomsmith6878
      @tomsmith6878 5 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      tree 4

    • @PopeGoliath
      @PopeGoliath 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      For a second I thought Tree(3)! meant Tree(3)×Tree(2)×Tree(1) and was all "Psssh, easy." Then I realized my mistake and had a second think.
      Factorials grow quickly, but Tree grows much, MUCH faster. I think adding another step of Tree will blow the factorial operation out of the water.

    • @ryanoftinellb
      @ryanoftinellb 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Factorial is actually pretty weak once you get up to numbers like Tree(n>2). It's like lending a dollar to a trillionaire.

    • @hirvonenjoonas7281
      @hirvonenjoonas7281 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      @@ryanoftinellb *Tree(llionaire)

    • @AkiSan0
      @AkiSan0 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      ignore my ignorance... *ashamed in silence*

  • @Frownlandia
    @Frownlandia 5 ปีที่แล้ว +46

    Am I the only one getting strong Beverly Crusher vibes from Hannah in that jacket?

    • @gothicsoldier
      @gothicsoldier 5 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      Well, I am now

    • @cawfeedawg
      @cawfeedawg 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Hush Wesley.

    • @chantelm9255
      @chantelm9255 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      I didn’t the first time but just watched this again, and that’s the first thing I thought when I saw Hannah!

  • @RFC3514
    @RFC3514 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    12:45 - The term is "bayesetarian".

  • @captainzork6109
    @captainzork6109 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Does preregistration affect Bayesian stats as positively as it affects null hypothesis significance testing? (NHST) Experimenter’s degrees of freedom to choose whichever analysis path they think is appropriate whilst looking at the data introduces undesirable biases when it comes to NHST. So what about Bayesian stats?

  • @davidioanhedges
    @davidioanhedges 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Many thanks to the stars of this - Hannah, Matt, the briefly appearing camera operator, and of course Hannah Jr ...

  • @MitchellD249
    @MitchellD249 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    It's hilarious how this video manages to explain the concept well even though Matt's terrible throws made it a complete fluke that his guess was close. The first ball *was* in the South of the table, but it could have been slightly North of centre and he'd have still guessed it was that far South because every subsequent throw landed right on the Northern edge.

  • @brunopaganeli2464
    @brunopaganeli2464 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Nice explanations. It will be very useful to me! Tks.

  • @kykk3365
    @kykk3365 5 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    So Bayesian Statistics is about not getting things exactly right, but very close? Sound like it's right up Mr Parkers alley...or perhaps not alley, but more towards the center of town, like say a large open area.

    • @Diogenes2077
      @Diogenes2077 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      It is not about knowing where it is, but knowing that you are right to belive it to be where you belive it to be no matter where it actually is.

  • @keanubartolata3465
    @keanubartolata3465 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Im no mathematician but im pretty sure that's not the complete equation. I believe that's only for relationship between 2 distinct objects. You need to use the one with the summation in it. And this one im not sure but every time there is summation, there is a derivation/integration version too.

  • @jimallen8186
    @jimallen8186 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You have a different concept at play here in the throws with precision versus accuracy. Having so many hits on the far side of the table and generally in line with the target throw though balanced slightly west of shows a sense of precision without accuracy.

  • @NicolaCappellini
    @NicolaCappellini 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    OMG two of my favorite people!

  • @MuzikBike
    @MuzikBike 5 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Why haven't I seen much research done into star polygons with higher densities than half of their vertices, like {5/3} or {9/7}? Surely these could exist in spherical geometry?

  • @vitomarchino
    @vitomarchino 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Bayesian statistics is basically how long distance sniping works, as the spotter tells the sniper how far off he was on the previous shot in order to increase accuracy

  • @Rizon1985
    @Rizon1985 5 ปีที่แล้ว +22

    I've never seen a video where Hannah isn't pregnant. So make sure you have the correct data before you make conclusions from it.

  • @markwong6548
    @markwong6548 5 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I heard "try more random" and I couldn't help laughing.

  • @Njald
    @Njald 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I never get tired of Matt's adorable awkwardness or Hannah's charm.

  • @strohtaler4698
    @strohtaler4698 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    I wonder how the coordinates are oriented... Assuming the coordinates are aligned with the table, I would say almost all hits were Nord. The west component is 10% or less than the Nord one.

  • @Mr_Mooo
    @Mr_Mooo 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Loved the plugs at the end, very nice indeed