Tesla Stock: New Fundamental Analysis & Price Targets.
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ก.ย. 2024
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Tesla stock fundamental analysis.
📝Disclaimer:
This video is not personalized advice for the viewer.
#meetkevin #househack #JuneVegasEvent
This guy is like a used car salesman, he's full of BS. Last week he was bragging about how he was shorting Tesla. Tesla was up 6% today, now he says he sold his short position on Thursday. Yea OK!
But that's exactly what he did tho....
He did.. if you were a course member you'd also no what the 2nd short is!
What he said is 100% accurate.
You don’t know what you don’t know
The only thing keeping Tesla's stock afloat is FSD hopium. And that ain't gonna come anytime soon. TSLA needs a new CEO for it to go any higher!
If you were a course member, you'd know that Kevin timed the trade perfectly 👌
Dude, you are clearly super smart but you’ve been wrong with TSLA estimates for 2+ years now. I remember you buying near 400 saying stock was cheap and estimating 20% + returns on an annual basis towards 2025
THANK YOU for going short. $TSLA can now run 📈🤞🏽♥️
When Kevin shorts, TSLA takes off
Kevin is full of shit. “Oh yeah I was short but sold at the right time cause I knew it would rocket.” Gimme a break man
I mean, it was announced in real time on the lives, and coursemember announcements, so that kinda eliminates hindsight being 20/20.
Like 'oh, it's down 4% today, I didn't think it would do it this fast, the day after I announced my short position, I thought it would take some weeks, so i'm closing my shorts'
Do you not get embarrassed by commenting stuff like this when the video says the exact opposite?
He literally finished the video saying he’s triple short on Tesla and is bearish. How cringe of you
He already told that he had sold all his put option last Friday; you can check on last Friday's video.
@l0v3nul clearly you should study up before speaking here
Not at all what he said but keep crying n see where that gets you
I remember when Nvidia had it's China issues with chips and was super low... Now Tesla has its issues and is super low... Shouldn't we be buying Tesla?
You are so stupid,
Nvidia has demand of millions chips .
Tesla has not demand of (millions) of cars. There is a strong strong competition.
good thought however we have a demand issue. Does the average American on average income want to buy a Tesla and can they afford it? Of course this may change, you could be right.
His theory is that we still have lower to go on Tesla but yes he plans to buy at that point when he thinks the worst is behind it.
NVDA still
Has china issues .
I’m buying but waiting until I see blood on the streets
Hi Kevin,
I'm curious what your thoughts are if Donald Trump gets elected and its effect on the EV industry.
I hope it does.
The NVDA jacket bullish for Tesla,
maybe overlooking the energy side alot of potential
If TSLA gets to $65, I’m backing up the truck
I will cash out my cds and load up no way it gets to that price
same
That’s what everyone says lol then either their to scared to buy, waiting for it to get lower or spent their money before it gets that low!
If TSLA gets to $65 it's going to zero
Backing up the truck when it reaches a fair market price? Enjoy those 4-5% annual gains I guess. Might as well just buy bonds.
Most of these negative issues with TSLA are already priced in. Haven’t been in TSLA in years but the day Kevin shorted is when I bought. Was very temped when Gary Black sold like a week or so ago. Kevin shorting was the final straw though 😂. Huge bulls getting scared by short term issues is a buy signal. These guys should’ve been selling a year ago, not now. Not that there won’t be more downside but there isn’t a lot of downside and trying to time when to get back in is a losing game
So, a possible 50% haircut from here isn't a lot?
so i get that NVDA poses a big threat to tesla's compute power and speed. But they can't simply use their omniverse to create the reality because streets are not perfect. So ultimately, wouldn't you need raw street data? Then, who has most of the raw data? Tesla right? Am I missing something?
Exactly real world data matter but NVDA is a power house on fast learning
I think a key component that most analysts miss when it comes to FSD is the fact that Tesla has cameras all around their cars, and on ever single vehicle they sell. Tesla has data that no other auto company has. There is no competition, period.
I guess you haven't heard of Waymo yet...
Let’s see what comes out of the BYD & Nvida partnership.
@@MirceaGoiaYa waymo, only costs $150,000 to fit all the sensors, it's not scalable😊😊😊
See I used to think this. Then I watched Xiaomi introduce an FSD rival based on NVDA Orin (not even NVDA Thor yet). This vehicle has lidar, radar, and 11 external cameras "all around their cars." But you said, "There is no competition, period," so maybe we should just not look and pretend the competition doesn't exist.
Still time to delete this comment. 😂
How do you handle all your businesses and keep posting TH-cam at the same time man? You are incredible person
While your concerns about Nvidia challenging Tesla in FSD are valid, they overlook key aspects. Tesla's standardized sensor placement and comprehensive understanding of its system architecture afford it a distinct advantage in data cohesion and optimization. The assumption that competitors can rapidly scale to match Tesla's data collection overlooks the monumental task of achieving market penetration and data parity. Moreover, projecting a catch-up timeframe ignores Tesla's ongoing advancements. Betting on a convergence of factors enabling competitors to outpace Tesla without considering Tesla's continuous innovation and existing advantages seems optimistic at best.
This would be depressing if TSLA was just an auto company....but they're not. AI is not priced in....yet.
If Tesla is going to fix their growth, they need to release some new models. An 8 passenger SUV/Van/minivan and economy car would create a massive amount of new customers. I am a huge telsa fan and they dont make a vehicle that works for my family.
Tesla's global presence and diverse customer base provide stability and growth potential. This is actually a very big opportunity to buy shares and benefit from Tesla
Kevin gets a risky put and starts the tesla fud 😂 to help his put
If he closed on Thursday, why was there no video announcement? Bad form.
As its on the course member live streams. One of the benefits, his YT channel lags or what's the point of course members getting the heads up...
You’re not in the know
I'm sure of you paid him to be in a private circle jerk he would have told you (not)
Totally agree with the analysis. So many folks in the Tesla community seem to want to bury their heads in the sand. I've been holding TSLA since 2015, I already took half of the table this week. Will probably get rid of half more. Way too many headwinds. I'm not sure when FSD will actually deliver to the bottom line though.
Catching up isn't just about the chips, while generated environments are a thing there's a risk of "grading your own homework" to it, and Tesla does still have millions to billions of miles of data out there on hundreds of thousands of HW3+ capable vehicles out in the real world.
mega bullish on TSLA
did u not watch the video? lol
Correct, but you're missing a big point in your analysis, dude. Tesla is not an EV company anymore. Tesla holds a 15% market share of energy storage, which is a trillion-dollar industry, and its profitability is way higher than that of cars. Not to mention autonomy and AI.
Thank you Kevin for all the great content and the hard work you put into it! Just silence all the noise and just do you sir..👍🏼
Early adopter got their EV a few years back, the early majority got theirs in the last 2-4 years. The used car market is building up, and the competition is here. The 1st deep cold in Chicago this year (not everyone is in CA), charging EV was a nightmare. QC, the biggest market for EV in Canada is stopping their subsidies in Dec 2024. After all, when you have a margin of 20k per car, but your car is subsidized by 10k, technically, without the subsidy you will be at 10k per car. TSLA is run by someone who complains about paying taxes....but his company profits/sales exists because of the subsidy their sales have received over the years.
Are you factoring in the $25,000. Tesla. That is supposed to be a major catalyst but it might not be.
If appl3 is pulling the plug on their ev project, which much of it was based on software/ai, I'm sure... how do you think Nvidia is now the everything company and can do software, manufacturing, engineering AI?
If you are considering shorting mining stocks dont do it! They have allready decoupled from bitcoin and are down. They will regain their strength after the halving in 30 days imo
Thanks for your PERSPECTIVE and evaluation. Very grounded reasoning 👍
so many things can happen in a year or two. interest rates, reacceleration of BEV market, legislation...This model will be wrong
Will be way wrong. Do this same thing in 2018 and it would’ve said TSLA was way overvalued. Can’t estimate growth rates a year or two away.
TSLA is just about to boom to the upside...If you are bearish on TSLA, damn you gotta check your TA
People want tesla cars but we cant afford the $1k a month car payments and $200+ a month insurance. Did a scenario $50k car for 5 year loan and 7.5% rates and your ending paying $60k total for a car that in 5 years will be worth less than $30k
But u use 60k miles on that car? Unless your in the ghetto, Car is not a choice in USA
excellent analysis
So your shorted TSLA it went up then cover your position and went long TSLA went down.
I think TSLA will surprise on the Power side and parts next couple of QTRS with huge margins that should improve the Bull case
Maybe it's just me listening in after a while. This was so refreshing man. Hope your daughter is doing ok brother. God bless!
I dont know about Tesla but all the other EV manufacturers are getting destroyed by super high depreciation. 2023 Ford lightning with 500 miles on it is worth 40k. Taycans and Etrons that were 120k are worth 45k?
MSTR short?
massive cup and handle on the hourly chart. After market formed a green handle. Bears tried to take it below $172, but it kept coming back up. The momentum is strong. Tomorrow is gonna be a blood bath for the bears. It will be another $10+ day tomorrow.
MM likes to trap both longs n shorts . Also, the resistance bears know to pounce on these levels. Friday option expiration is what the MM wants to close it . 😂
I see this obsession with FSD in the Tesla community, not just here. II have Tesla long shares, but I don't know what the company or investors think will happen once FSD magically does all driving for us. Is getting to superlative FSD worth this expense and engineering? Do they think consumers will suddenly start buying 50% more Teslas? Tesla needs to spend its time and money getting quality and reliability up. Smaller panel gaps, bumpers not falling off, batteries with shorter charge times, suspensions that stop breaking, steering racks that last, motors that don't burn up after a few years, and door handles that don't need repeated replacement.
You’re very low on energy business revenue and margins
Then why are you underperforming the benchmark?
Kevin is doing stock videos now? The world 🌎 must be upside down for sure
Yeah he's only been doin them for years..
it is not about compute, it is about data ( real world data ) and not some fancy simulations in virtual worlds. Ashok recently said , reversing and parking and summon are coming in 12.4, perhaps the 12.3 is driving the stock up.
High interest rates hurts legacy auto more than Tesla. Margins on car sales is the least of Teslas worries. How can they sell FSD of there are no cars on the road to use the software? Printer Ink business
Statistics peep will tell you that they can simulate data when there is insufficient data, e.g., MCMC
So paypal has more growth than Tesla... Trading below 15 FW-PE.... if Tesla goes down to 20 PE.... oh boy that like 70-90 bucks.... no bueno. But now I understand what Elon meant when saying Energy will be bigger than cars. If cars are stagnant... well that becomes very realistic.
Analysts miss one key point. As Elon mentioned significantly more compute is available to drastically increase FSD value as boosting selling point for customers. Investors will appreciate value sooner than many people think.
Fed funds rate will not be going below 4.5.% unless we have a catastrophe
When it comes to bitcoin, you don’t see the bigwigs maybe Black rock telling grayscale to keep selling, and they will slowly stop buying and that will just make the price come down a ton to then black rock will start buying again
If apple is selling less in china, so does tesla
OK your math is solid however here's what you're missing. There's so many moving pieces to analysis and it takes a lot of good minds Elon when he talked about getting into the car business was told you'll never make it because there's no margin in new cars. The margin comes in parts well tesla has a fleet of vehicles out on the road now that need his parts and the big margin is in parts 10 years ago that fleet was nowhere the size it is now with repairs parts, etc. so there's another part of the core business that's growing that I think needs to be taken into account. In addition to spending a lot of capital on the three new plants that'll drive down cost eventually so I wouldn't bet against Elon musk for very long.
@pinotwinelover you are absolutely correct. Tesla stock also has charisma just like Microsoft and Apple. Charisma is more valuable than fundamentals and arguably the most valuable attribute when it comes to investment. Herd mentality will funnel into something they can't live without. And people will soon realize that what they cannot live without is Tesla A.I. and Tesla supercharging stations.
Hey Kevin I think it might be allergies potentially. Lots of pollen already everywhere here in NC not sure what the west coast is looking like though. Just a thought
What’s the analyst guy he follows? No links given!!!!
Same. is it TroyTesla?
You have energy in 2027 at $16B and 11% margin. They’re going at more than 50% and margin is 25%
It’s a shame that the man who taught me not to time the market is doing exactly that. Sometimes I feel like Kevin doesn’t believe his own amazing ideas. Musk only has 90% of his net worth in the stock, this company will be a couple trillion in 10 years. Kevin will tell us, I shouldn’t have tried to timed the market.
sick and still making videos u are one of the best TH-camrs TH-cam has lol! love ur videos
He has to. He’s shorting. So he needs to “influence” his sheep to sell Tesla positions. 😂😂
NVDA? Why not Mobile-Eye?
I sold my short position just before Tesla started jumping in yesterday 😂 Really I can do correct entry exit with Tesla before Musk revealing news 👍👌
On the NVDA FSD competition w/TSLA… I agree the new Nvidia GPUs makes this an equal playing field from the training aspect, but I’m still not sure where the DATA is going to come from. Elon said a long time ago that it’s only a matter of time before every car is autonomous, but the ultimate success of autonomy is going to be measured by the company with the highest nines in safety!!! I don’t think the consumer is going to trust a manufacturer with a 99.99% over one with 99.9999% safety rating, not when the lives of their family is on the line. And the only way you march higher with nines is Data. Just a thought.
Price must come down drastically for average person to afford.
Kevin has been staying up to 3am
Every morning to figure out what he should do with his Tesla.
Why nobody notice YT Tesla ads??? ❤
Good job closing that short not getting caught deep. What are you buying with the money from the tsla shares you sold?
What is your wiew on Sofia Stock you Think its a shitty invest ore Good Long term
LFG!! I want TSLA in the low 100s so I can buy another 75 shares :)
The more Elon tells or exposes the truth, the more his stock goes down. I wonder what’s going on???
I know right it’s crazy. It’s so much deeper than just about Tesla.
Pretty much all financial growth for Tesla is substantially less than previously expected by the market. And it continues being revised down.
Deep doo doo
Walls street don’t truth, need to lie
Ha! Truth…
To add ive bought more tesla and calls up the yazoo!
I do my own investing, I don’t need Kevin’s advice. I check out a lot of podcasts just to see what they say. Matt Pocius and Dillon are 2 of my favorites. And no I do not subscribe to his channel let alone pay for his advice. In my opinion there’s a crash coming soon. I’m 75% cash money. Tesla will move when interest rates start going down, FSD is fully released or a legacy auto sign up for Tesla’s FSD. Deliveries are not looking too good.
Time will tell. Having a great hardware company does not mean it will be good ie. Samsung vs apple. By looking at MB self driving, I have very little hope on NVDA on beating Tesla.
Kevin, your PE is too low at 25. Investors have been buying at 40. I remember when it was 800 and people bought the stock.
What's your price target for Li Auto.
Bank of China Ord Its shares will increase a lot..
Kevin is usually too early with short (exception of last two) so I would wait until start shorting.
If you ask me as someone who has followed Kevin a long time, I can tell you that Kevin is not an investor in stocks. he might be an investor in real estate, but not in stocks and especially in Tesla. He is behaving like the typical gambler who is causing the quick gain. Most of the time he fails and it makes for good TH-cam footage but nobody should follow him for his investing in stocks. You will end up bankrupt.
I’d rather wait til it drops to 100 (if it does). There’s no doubt Tesla would be a lot lower if we weren’t in a bull market.
Kevin in the 4 years I've listened to you and very early on I've always noticed that you are good at macroclimate predicting-partially when people like Powell spell it out for you/everyone- which is great, but you have rose colored glasses for growth stories. Which is very appropriate for the times we live in, but your margins between hodl, it will be great, and I (Kevin) liquidated and the next growth story is already here, is very thin.
Ultimately you should be taken with a grain of salt well earned if there is something you are making bullish claims or predictions like your Tesla.
I haven't lost anything, just something Ive always noticed.
I been saying way way back that Tesla is going back down 100-60 and possibly even lower… it’s a tech company and mostly car company. For car company it’s over priced when it comes to stock/fundamentals and that’s why it’s going down…
TELL ME IF IT GOES TO $69.00 and I'll buy a BUNCH : ) $420 sounds EQUALLY CRAZY short term. $122.00 IS IMO the LOW TSLA will hit in 2024.
Everything is going to be OK, Kevin! 💕👍 You need to take care of yourself! 😴💤💤
If there was a video title to encompass the last 3 months of Kevin’s videos it would be “How bears are made.”
Karma will hunting you down. Stop manipulating poor people, Mark my word, Karma is out there in different form!
I agree with you on the fed intervention not happening this July. Unless they screwed up last weeks inflation % which would not surprise me. I’ve never owned any Tesla stock as it’s simply too volatile for my stomach.
Meet keven ❤️to pull numbers out of his ass. Just a few months ago he said Tesla was going to 💰1,000 😂😂😂😂😂😂
If tesla drops to 65 it will be like buying property after the 2008 crisis. Once in a lifetime investment opportunity
I feel they are going to artificially keep arm flat and slowly trickle out the shares
I agree other companies can catch up with B100 in one year, in theory but in reality they cannot because they won’t have data. You mentioned it too. They won’t have data from cars with 8-10 camera hardware to do end to end neural network training. All other combined EV with FSD equivalent hardware is still significantly lower.
TIMBERRRRRRRRR!!!!
I could see Nvidia buying out Rivian, or even pole star then I could see Tesla having some really big problems
Diamond hands
Nvidia can’t compete on data. With vehicle autonomy there is a very, very minute tolerable margin of error. That means accounting for majority of edge cases. The march of the 9s. Nvidia can probably get most of the way there but will stall out on the march of the 9s till it gathers enough data. That’s gonna take a mountain of data. That’s where Tesla’s advantage has always been
Why isn't Tesla revenue growing faster? They have so much demand for all of their products!
You’re making 2027 calculations and not factoring in energy with 2 megapack factories ramping and already way higher margins than auto
If it was valued properly based on people prone to propaganda having already bought EVs the price would be around $50/share.
I think I can resonate with that somber tone in Kevin‘s voice 😞
NVIDIA is not even close to have the data. Tesla has millions of cars collecting data in shadow mode. Your thesis would only work out if new ai models would dramatically less data to get to FSD
Between, new year in china, Fremont highland upgrade and Berlin fires. I think we’re fine.
Tesla have way too many competition and trading at multiples
Market flooded with cheaper used Tesla with hertz deal ending
lol at TSLA $69 or $420. I think its not impossible to see both.
Many people seem to not know how to day trade, swing trade or trade options. It's just easier to trade when emotions aren't involved and there is a clear entry and exit.
Trading is not investing. But one can do both.