I live in Hong Kong and I’ve been investing in China since 2004. China’s economy is not in good shape. Fundamentals are deteriorating. Chinese equity market valuations may appear cheap but earnings growth will continue to decline outside of a handful of companies. 4-5% GDP growth DOES NOT translate into higher equity market performance. Just look at the past 10 years of +5% annual GDP growth and 1-2% annualized performance of Hang Seng Index or MSCI China. Do not try to stock pick in China unless you are here in the region and can do due diligence.
When poker started taking off in 2003-2004 our biggest influx of people demographics-wise was Wall Street individuals and basically what they taught me and others how similar the two are as opposed to the differences one couuuuuld assume! Scary world!
I really liked this podcast which allows us (newbies) to better understand the thoughts to have about how to look at assets and their potential. The format is really good, Lyn does a good job of vulgarizing it and I'm already looking forward to her next one. Cheer
Smart phones are becoming a scam. The phone I am typing this on is a refurbished Samsung, cost me $130 and works fine. It can take pictures, play podcast, I really only use 5 apps and has lasted 4 years. Why pay $1000 every other year?
Please hire an intern to clean up the scammers and bots trying to fleece people of their money. It detracts from the credibility of your channel and content.
The new iPhone 16, “Do you want to pay an obscene amount of money for the same phone we sold you in 2012? If so, then the iPhone 16 is for you!” They’re acting as if “Apple Intelligence” can’t be handled via an iOS upgrade to current phones
No one pays obscene amount of money. Most people get upgrades via carrier or payment plans. For a single device that you use the most and the only computer many people they have in their home, iPhones are not that expensive.
@@stevechance150 I should have added that you have to HOLD it. Short term investing is always gambling no matter what you buy. So far I've purchased 2 homes from my NVDA gains over the last 5 years. It has never let me down, and I've never sold out of fear.
Lyn is one of my favorite guests. She's one of the few people that talk fundamental numbers (price, earnings, growth, etc) and how valuation of companies look.
She is all always introduced as an “independent analyst”. Does that raise a red flag? Anyone in the street can qualify for that. She doesn’t have fiduciary duty to anyone.
Honestly, there is no world in which anything that causes significant beneficial change gets through Congress until all Senate votes pass with 50% plus VP tiebreaker.
Does anyone know what metric she is using when she says that the Latin American stock market is up over the last two years compared to the S&P 500? I didn’t find a good two-year chart, but the Latin America 40 is down almost 2% over the last year and the S&P 500 is up 25%
Betting on elections is probably a bad idea. Not just because someone might want to affect the election results to win money, but because you might end up with people who are helping to run the election who have large gambling debts and are now in a position to be influenced to perform potential shenanigans around the election. Basically the same reason Pete Rose got banned even though he bet on his own team: he could have ended with big gambling debts and now be in a position where he is beholden to bookies who could use that leverage for nefarious purposes.
Apple stopped innovating a long time ago Your iPhone is no different from the 11 model The jump on performance on MacBook M1 vs Intel was so huge there is no reason to upgrade to current models VisionPro has potential but the cost is prohibitive
What are you talking about? Literally, go use an older iPhone and look at the speed. Like, you people are just so pedantic when it comes to semiconductors, it's like infuriating. But this is also why y'all never went in the market, so it's actually perfect.
@@and1play5 so you basically recognize the planned obsolescence... nothing wrong with the device itself , the software bricks it Mindless consumerism is the Apple strategy
I feel like most people get Apple wrong. First of all their innovations have been incremental: battery, screen, weight, camera, software, etc. You can’t possibly expect drastic hardware improvements at this point because this is a mature product. Just like how cars have had the same shape for 100+ years since the model T. My take from the event is that AI will entice a lot of people to get the new phones. There is enough change there. AirPods as hearing aids is brilliant. So is Apple Watch for sleep apnea. These upgrades will supercharge the next cycle as new customers will enter the ecosystem. Very bullish for the next couple of years for Apple especially as they continue to add health features.
She is always introduced as an “independent analyst”. Does that raise a red flag? Any random person can qualify for that. She doesn’t have fiduciary duty to anyone.
@scottgalloway you should speak to Gary Stevenson, he has a TH-cam called Gary’s Economics and he was one of the only people I saw call the continued rise in house prices. He did this in 2020. He also went large leverage long on gold instead of the S&P around the same time. Very smart and switched on guy. You should 100% speak with him if you can
Congress gave away it's tariff power to the president years ago, so the argument that Congress would prevent Trump from raising tariffs is disingenuous. "1934 Section 350(a) of the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934 authorized the President to negotiate bilateral, reciprocal trade agreements and proclaim changes to U.S. tariff rates of up to 50% of existing rates without further congressional action. Renewed 11 times."
The bit about housing and rate changes seems a bit of a hindsight rationalization of incorrect predictions. You guys should really get Gary Stevenson on the program from Gary's economics. Hes correctly called all major market moves sonce the pandemic. He's an ex citibank trader and activist economist. I so bad wanna hear him and your team go toe to toe
Should be laws to prevent insider knowledge on prediction markets even if it would be hard to prove. Also any election market that is impacted by someone dropping out should be a cancelled bet.
Apple could totally renovate the iPhone. But they would run out of ideas in a few years (if that long). Instead they offer little updates and run on the CPU/GPU being slightly faster each rendition and overcharge for it...
2:45 - Not touching Emerging Markets when the Fed is about to start cutting rates over the next 12 months (at least), making US Stocks more attractive again and make the dollar "cheaper" and therefore inflate US Stocks prices to rebalance their value, then the cut rates will eventually strengthen the economy, boost companies and therefore boost the Stock Market.
Well, the US doesn't really have a left-wing party. The Democrats are a centrist party and the GOP is a right-wing party, so if "moderate" means "centrist," then he's right.
To a boomer (we grew up in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s) Scott could easily been mistaken for someone who voted for Nixon. He’s definitely a moderate from our perspective
Remember when prof g pulled the podcasts from Spotify because of Joe Rogan bringing on guests and talking about the Covid response and vaccine policy, why did you bring back the podcast to Spotify?
I didn't know that. Didn't get the shot. Had to fight for my job. Harassment daily. I hope people that got rabid about covid take stock and reassess their behavior in times of stress. Maybe you are wrong
Ed should have been around for the Microsoft unveiling events in the mid-90s. Wow! Microsoft Bob, the Microsoft paperclip, and two new chart types in Excel. Talk about underwhelming.
This plays as emotionally boundariless father calling his son every single night about his day. I don't blame you. If it weren't for the market updates, it would be too unbearable to handle.
IF AI really works is if I give Ai access to a 2K$ account , ask it to COPY TH-cam tiktok videos ON how to use ai to generate music images & sell t shirts with prints on them as diff companies take the order, produce , ship the product as money just funnels into my acct.
Except when that's easy to do there will be millions of others doing it all at once, driving the profit margins down to the absolute minimum. We will need to find new innovative ways to make money beyond these small-time side hustles everyone loves.
MAGA has taken Republicans so far to the right that they now literally call Ronald Reagan a RINO. They don't say that in jest or see the irony either. If you consider Scott a liberal, you're very likely much farther to the right than you believed. He's what would have been a Reagan Republican in the 80s. He's not liberal.
Once again, you guys are being dishonest about technology. You didn't say anything about the A18 shipped by Apple. Can you guys please spend actual time doing research? You guys claim that you're millionaire, billionaire-level investors, but you let Ed read off these pedantic versions of what he calls features because he doesn't understand anything else? That's dishonest. Too British to be talking tech.
Google Photos has had incredible AI features for the last 5+ years... Apple is playing catch up and dressing it in a tux Get an Android for a week, Scott. Get out from under the Apple rock.
8:45 - Like Ed , people are spoiled and blasé by the incredible technology they've held in their hands for the past 10 years. This AI change at the code of the OS is fundamentally huge, tit's stepping stone for future capabilities. And everyone thought Apple was out of the AI race? I'm not an Apple fanboy, I loath the UX and UI and don't own any. But underwhelming ... pffff
If you're going to talk about gambling and "prediction markets" use the real terms. Insider trading is a term related to stock trading, not prediction markets. Manipulation is a reasonable term. And hedging investment is the rationalizing that occurs when people don't want to admit they are defacto gambling in these 'prediction markets.'
Lyn was awesome. My one comment I'd like to make regarding the point about super high quality, low growth companies being overvalued. Costco being the most egregious example, but Apple, Coca-Cola, etc. are also in that camp. I think the market has, at least recently, given a huge premium to what it perceives as quality. Not necessarily based on the balance sheet, but more so based on the durability of earnings. Coca-Cola for example, has survived the early 20th century financial panics, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, The Cold War, 9/11, the GFC, Covid, etc. It's survived and even thrived during tons of different black swan events, so I believe investors pay up because there is nothing conceivable that would really crush Coca-Cola's earnings. With that said, I don't own any of these because I just can't with confidence invest in a company that needs to trade at 30-50x earnings for it to be a good investment. So I agree with Lyn's point, but I think the reason for the overvaluation is that the market sees Apple, Coca-Cola, Costco, etc. as having such incredibly durable earnings that nothing could get in the way besides total societal collapse.
You could arrgue the iphone's from 2018 to the present are incremental updates however the devices have changed alot since 2014. The current phones are now water proof up to 8ft, shoot 4k, and have a richer display, and IOS is over all is more user friendly. Futhermore 2014 was the iphone 6s screen to body ratio is demonstrably worse than the current Iphone range.
I spent so much time wondering whether he/she was a he or a she, i had to go back and listen to it again. Totally missed most of what he/she was saying.
Weird Republicans. They're always focused on what's going on in other people's underwear. JD Vance thinks that if you have a vagina, that hasn't delivered a child, your vote should count less... like half as much.
![HIWWHEE | OHM [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/OJJLtTLqLag/mqdefault.jpg)
Ed's analysis just gets better and better every week.
yep
I like that the behind the scenes folks are being given some shine.
I live in Hong Kong and I’ve been investing in China since 2004. China’s economy is not in good shape. Fundamentals are deteriorating. Chinese equity market valuations may appear cheap but earnings growth will continue to decline outside of a handful of companies. 4-5% GDP growth DOES NOT translate into higher equity market performance. Just look at the past 10 years of +5% annual GDP growth and 1-2% annualized performance of Hang Seng Index or MSCI China. Do not try to stock pick in China unless you are here in the region and can do due diligence.
When poker started taking off in 2003-2004 our biggest influx of people demographics-wise was Wall Street individuals and basically what they taught me and others how similar the two are as opposed to the differences one couuuuuld assume! Scary world!
I really liked this podcast which allows us (newbies) to better understand the thoughts to have about how to look at assets and their potential. The format is really good, Lyn does a good job of vulgarizing it and I'm already looking forward to her next one. Cheer
Smart phones are becoming a scam. The phone I am typing this on is a refurbished Samsung, cost me $130 and works fine. It can take pictures, play podcast, I really only use 5 apps and has lasted 4 years. Why pay $1000 every other year?
Ur a boomer and do no serious work
😂@@and1play5
Lyn Alden is frigging smart, I will watch any video she's in.
Please hire an intern to clean up the scammers and bots trying to fleece people of their money. It detracts from the credibility of your channel and content.
The new iPhone 16, “Do you want to pay an obscene amount of money for the same phone we sold you in 2012? If so, then the iPhone 16 is for you!” They’re acting as if “Apple Intelligence” can’t be handled via an iOS upgrade to current phones
I use to worked for Apple. & you fellow consumer, are very correct. 👍 (also tons of “e-waste”).
No one pays obscene amount of money. Most people get upgrades via carrier or payment plans. For a single device that you use the most and the only computer many people they have in their home, iPhones are not that expensive.
"Stock picking is gambling"... unless you buy NVDA....
I wish! I'm still down 7% in NVDA. I'd get out today but I don't want to recognize the loss.
@@stevechance150 I should have added that you have to HOLD it. Short term investing is always gambling no matter what you buy. So far I've purchased 2 homes from my NVDA gains over the last 5 years. It has never let me down, and I've never sold out of fear.
Lyn is one of my favorite guests. She's one of the few people that talk fundamental numbers (price, earnings, growth, etc) and how valuation of companies look.
I hope she keeps coming back at least quarterly.
All she does is pretending to be an economist in order to peddle crypto. You don’t know who she is working for, do you?
She is all always introduced as an “independent analyst”. Does that raise a red flag? Anyone in the street can qualify for that. She doesn’t have fiduciary duty to anyone.
“ Everything in moderation “ - Uncle Jake
There is no world in which an unrealized gains tax gets through congress.
Honestly, there is no world in which anything that causes significant beneficial change gets through Congress until all Senate votes pass with 50% plus VP tiebreaker.
Least productive Congress in history.
Adding gambling on US elections, what could possibly go wrong?
The idea that the US legal environment would enable any kind of regulation is laughable
Freedom is indeed great.
Does anyone know what metric she is using when she says that the Latin American stock market is up over the last two years compared to the S&P 500? I didn’t find a good two-year chart, but the Latin America 40 is down almost 2% over the last year and the S&P 500 is up 25%
Betting on elections is probably a bad idea. Not just because someone might want to affect the election results to win money, but because you might end up with people who are helping to run the election who have large gambling debts and are now in a position to be influenced to perform potential shenanigans around the election.
Basically the same reason Pete Rose got banned even though he bet on his own team: he could have ended with big gambling debts and now be in a position where he is beholden to bookies who could use that leverage for nefarious purposes.
Be great to hear the Dog's overview of the space space
Apple stopped innovating a long time ago
Your iPhone is no different from the 11 model
The jump on performance on MacBook M1 vs Intel was so huge there is no reason to upgrade to current models
VisionPro has potential but the cost is prohibitive
What are you talking about? Literally, go use an older iPhone and look at the speed. Like, you people are just so pedantic when it comes to semiconductors, it's like infuriating. But this is also why y'all never went in the market, so it's actually perfect.
@@and1play5 so you basically recognize the planned obsolescence... nothing wrong with the device itself , the software bricks it
Mindless consumerism is the Apple strategy
I feel like most people get Apple wrong. First of all their innovations have been incremental: battery, screen, weight, camera, software, etc. You can’t possibly expect drastic hardware improvements at this point because this is a mature product. Just like how cars have had the same shape for 100+ years since the model T. My take from the event is that AI will entice a lot of people to get the new phones. There is enough change there. AirPods as hearing aids is brilliant. So is Apple Watch for sleep apnea. These upgrades will supercharge the next cycle as new customers will enter the ecosystem. Very bullish for the next couple of years for Apple especially as they continue to add health features.
Probably your best recurring guest
She is always introduced as an “independent analyst”. Does that raise a red flag? Any random person can qualify for that. She doesn’t have fiduciary duty to anyone.
Google Photos organised your photos for years now with AI
Rip James Earl Jones! Greatest voice in American history!
@scottgalloway you should speak to Gary Stevenson, he has a TH-cam called Gary’s Economics and he was one of the only people I saw call the continued rise in house prices. He did this in 2020. He also went large leverage long on gold instead of the S&P around the same time. Very smart and switched on guy. You should 100% speak with him if you can
Congress gave away it's tariff power to the president years ago, so the argument that Congress would prevent Trump from raising tariffs is disingenuous. "1934 Section 350(a) of the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934 authorized the President to negotiate bilateral, reciprocal trade agreements and proclaim changes to U.S. tariff rates of up to 50% of existing rates without further congressional action. Renewed 11 times."
I can't even look up this "Tyrion" hedge fund, that's the kind of access to the levers of wealth Scott has
The bit about housing and rate changes seems a bit of a hindsight rationalization of incorrect predictions. You guys should really get Gary Stevenson on the program from Gary's economics. Hes correctly called all major market moves sonce the pandemic. He's an ex citibank trader and activist economist. I so bad wanna hear him and your team go toe to toe
Should be laws to prevent insider knowledge on prediction markets even if it would be hard to prove. Also any election market that is impacted by someone dropping out should be a cancelled bet.
what are the basket of etfs to prevent a lost decade? If I own a total world etf would that be preventative?
Apple could totally renovate the iPhone. But they would run out of ideas in a few years (if that long). Instead they offer little updates and run on the CPU/GPU being slightly faster each rendition and overcharge for it...
Please bring on Gary Stevenson (Garys Economics)! Thanks!
America is so right that moderates seem far left to so many
lol what
2:45 - Not touching Emerging Markets when the Fed is about to start cutting rates over the next 12 months (at least), making US Stocks more attractive again and make the dollar "cheaper" and therefore inflate US Stocks prices to rebalance their value, then the cut rates will eventually strengthen the economy, boost companies and therefore boost the Stock Market.
I don’t know if I would say moderate I can’t think of anything on the ‘right’ you agree with but nothing wrong with being left
Well, the US doesn't really have a left-wing party. The Democrats are a centrist party and the GOP is a right-wing party, so if "moderate" means "centrist," then he's right.
@@Unknown-jt1jo interesting opinion!
"options" are very much gambling too. such as margin accounts. still, folks do it
To a boomer (we grew up in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s) Scott could easily been mistaken for someone who voted for Nixon. He’s definitely a moderate from our perspective
regular betting is already corrupt - wwhy would we add that to US politics RIGHT NOW>?! stupidd
Nice straw man you have there.
Remember when prof g pulled the podcasts from Spotify because of Joe Rogan bringing on guests and talking about the Covid response and vaccine policy, why did you bring back the podcast to Spotify?
Nobody cares
I do. @@mro234
Money talks
Get a life
I didn't know that. Didn't get the shot. Had to fight for my job. Harassment daily. I hope people that got rabid about covid take stock and reassess their behavior in times of stress. Maybe you are wrong
Scott is a moderate? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Ed should have been around for the Microsoft unveiling events in the mid-90s. Wow! Microsoft Bob, the Microsoft paperclip, and two new chart types in Excel. Talk about underwhelming.
I couldn't listen past 15 minutes
This plays as emotionally boundariless father calling his son every single night about his day. I don't blame you. If it weren't for the market updates, it would be too unbearable to handle.
IF AI really works is if I give Ai access to a 2K$ account , ask it to COPY TH-cam tiktok videos ON how to use ai to generate music images & sell t shirts with prints on them as diff companies take the order, produce , ship the product as money just funnels into my acct.
Except when that's easy to do there will be millions of others doing it all at once, driving the profit margins down to the absolute minimum. We will need to find new innovative ways to make money beyond these small-time side hustles everyone loves.
Go learn LangChain and do that rn lmaooo
After hearing Claire's viewpoint, maybe the new pod should be called "The raging and the moderate" instead😝
Scott!
is a dick
You’re not a moderate
MAGA has taken Republicans so far to the right that they now literally call Ronald Reagan a RINO. They don't say that in jest or see the irony either. If you consider Scott a liberal, you're very likely much farther to the right than you believed. He's what would have been a Reagan Republican in the 80s. He's not liberal.
Ofc not 😂
Once again, you guys are being dishonest about technology. You didn't say anything about the A18 shipped by Apple. Can you guys please spend actual time doing research? You guys claim that you're millionaire, billionaire-level investors, but you let Ed read off these pedantic versions of what he calls features because he doesn't understand anything else? That's dishonest. Too British to be talking tech.
Google Photos has had incredible AI features for the last 5+ years... Apple is playing catch up and dressing it in a tux
Get an Android for a week, Scott. Get out from under the Apple rock.
8:45 - Like Ed , people are spoiled and blasé by the incredible technology they've held in their hands for the past 10 years. This AI change at the code of the OS is fundamentally huge, tit's stepping stone for future capabilities. And everyone thought Apple was out of the AI race?
I'm not an Apple fanboy, I loath the UX and UI and don't own any.
But underwhelming ... pffff
Hand solo is always busy..
4:05 Pete Rose
You guys should interview Rory Sutherland. Would be fun.
Apple has always been an un-innovative product. In the words of the great flavor flav "Don't believe the Hype"
Scott is a flaming liberal, how is that even a question
Limousine liberal :)
Scott, dude, Apple does not have good looking people on the keynote. They are very California tech - not Southern California 😭😭
If you're going to talk about gambling and "prediction markets" use the real terms. Insider trading is a term related to stock trading, not prediction markets. Manipulation is a reasonable term. And hedging investment is the rationalizing that occurs when people don't want to admit they are defacto gambling in these 'prediction markets.'
Nah it’s insider trading. And sport betters are true gamblers.
Lyn's has some good points, but he is far too macro. He needs to drill down into practical terms - let's see how his opinion plays out.
Lyn was awesome. My one comment I'd like to make regarding the point about super high quality, low growth companies being overvalued. Costco being the most egregious example, but Apple, Coca-Cola, etc. are also in that camp. I think the market has, at least recently, given a huge premium to what it perceives as quality. Not necessarily based on the balance sheet, but more so based on the durability of earnings. Coca-Cola for example, has survived the early 20th century financial panics, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, The Cold War, 9/11, the GFC, Covid, etc. It's survived and even thrived during tons of different black swan events, so I believe investors pay up because there is nothing conceivable that would really crush Coca-Cola's earnings.
With that said, I don't own any of these because I just can't with confidence invest in a company that needs to trade at 30-50x earnings for it to be a good investment. So I agree with Lyn's point, but I think the reason for the overvaluation is that the market sees Apple, Coca-Cola, Costco, etc. as having such incredibly durable earnings that nothing could get in the way besides total societal collapse.
You could arrgue the iphone's from 2018 to the present are incremental updates however the devices have changed alot since 2014.
The current phones are now water proof up to 8ft, shoot 4k, and have a richer display, and IOS is over all is more user friendly.
Futhermore 2014 was the iphone 6s screen to body ratio is demonstrably worse than the current Iphone range.
Lyn is great 👏
Lyn is the financial worlds Pat from SNL
Great guest. Buy Gold.
Measuring global liquidity through Bitcoin is brilliant
I spent so much time wondering whether he/she was a he or a she, i had to go back and listen to it again. Totally missed most of what he/she was saying.
You Rock Lyn
1 out of 10 on the "richard head" spectrum?
-11
Wow, fancy stuff
Is this a she or he???
Weird Republicans. They're always focused on what's going on in other people's underwear. JD Vance thinks that if you have a vagina, that hasn't delivered a child, your vote should count less... like half as much.
@@patrickspellman8758they deleted my comment.
They keep deleting my posts.
No great loss.