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@@elskid206 yh idk what that is i only watch youtube. TV and online news is for old ppl. maybe its just easier than video for dem cus they develop dementia n stuff and cant even recognise themself in mirror
@@R3IMU People need to realize that READING what is typed does not give the reader the body language and the tonality cues which the LISTENER picks up on allowing the LISTENER to "get it", but causes CONFUSION for the READER. So if someone is using sarcasm or irony or hyperbole to be cute, they're NOT; they're being confusing.
@@elskid206I agree in a general context, but I also disagree with the specific context of outgroup vs. Ingroup jokes. The meaning becomes clear and contextualized once you have spent enough time interacting with others in the ingroup. A great example is old 4chan where pretty much all posts were some form of irony and inside joke. Not all jokes are aimed at everyone.^^
Ben! I will give you a high five and a job well done if you release the next video as Dracula pointy fangs cape white face the whole nine yards that would truly be one for the record books.
I made huge mistakes evaluating the depth of consequences regarding BTC dominance. I watched all your videos since 2021 and thought I understood your point and agreed with you. However, after missing the exact BTC bottom in 2022 and seeing altcoin market collectively head higher in late 2023, I believed it would be better forget about Bitcoin and try and catch undervalued altcoins rather than stick to the king. Perhaps I thought this cycle would be somewhat left-translated since everybody were still calling for already-late recession etc. Big mistake. Some alts did outperform, yea, but in grand scheme of things BTC would've been the only logical option. I made good money but decided to hold those assets only to see valuations evaporate into thin air. It hurts a lot, although I didn't lose everything nor did I panic sell anything. I should've done better job putting your words - which I agreed on - into practice. I suppose it's the emotion thing that plays a big role here. Basically what I want to say is, that I was you in 2018 (in regards what you have told you did in 2018) and that you were right all the time. And I agreed. Yet I still managed to follow my "instinct" or emotion instead of what I simultaneously believed is going to happen. I made a costly mistake but I don't need to call you names because of my own stupidity. Next time I WILL do better. Perhaps I make some even this time. Keep up the good work Ben, I have great respect to you & your work in this space.
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i mean in 2007 after the first rate cut after bonkers October jobs data november's data was very very bad causing a massive correction for the rest of the year your view is highly likely
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just an aside - - - have you considered wearing a Star Trek uniform during your presentations? Not sure which color. And, try to make your ears a bit longer. Back to the charts.
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I think this cycle holds, but is the last one. The halving becomes decreasingly relevant now most of the BTC is mined, and also retail is becoming increasingly irrelevant. We are transitioning into the next phase where BTC becomes less volatile and edges closer to becoming the global reserve.
@@N0k4N oh yeah, it's going way beyond the moon, it's going into interstellar space.... But after that, I think it plateaus, much as the USD has been relatively stable. We don't see 80% drawdowns on USD 🤣
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Playing devils advocate here.But if on the FOMC on 7th Nov, the fed pivoted to QE and then we saw a pump, wouldnt that mean that we couldnt accredit either the cyclical view nor the monetary policy view? Someone correct me if im wrong :)
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Unlike previous cycles, ETH has treated the logarithmic regression band as support so far. Does this suggest that ETH may not go all the way home this cycle?
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Sahm Rule Indicator shows, that since December 1959, whenever it hit above 0.5 we hit a recession. Assuming it has a slow start, we might see a slow but long rise.
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Hey there, Ben and Cryptoversians! I love the comparison of BTC 2024 and 2019-2020, so I got a question. So, there was a breakout in from 14th January 2020, and the high at 13th February 2020, and although this high is higher than the previous one (26th October 2019), it was still lower than the high of 6th September 2019, and then it got to the hard landing. So here's my question - is it possible that BTC will exceed the previous high (29th July 2024), but will still be lower than the high of 7th June? In that case, BTC could still reach 70-72K, and then rest a bit on the just above lower-high support line, deciding on what kind of landing will it get? Thank you for providing your invaluable content, Ben. It changed my life, bless you.
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Very interesting video, Ben. I feel like the cyclical view is a bit thin whereas the monetary policy view has more substance: growing continued claims, QT continuation, positive correlation of BTC with ETH, lows of OTHERS/BTC and possible continuation of downtrend. If we bring it all together, I have a feeling there is one more rally down before we go up for good.
It's funny how delusional some people are even amongst your followers which I would assume to be better informed and more open minded. You don't invest with hope, you invest per the reality and the available data. Don't fight the market.
Academic Rigor means everything, Ben. Like knowledge and truth. An informed choice depends on academic rigor. (Freedom from shills and fakes). Could Btc.D keep rising after 60%? To 62%? 65%?
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what if both the monetary policy view and cyclical are both correct. monetary policy view matters during “hard landings environments”. where as cyclical view matters more for “soft landing environments”. the quicker the run to safe assets the more monetary value holds more weight in enticing a narrative shift
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At 44:00 you bring up an excellent point about tightening cycles, Bitcoin , which reminded me about what Larry Fink referred to as, "a flight to quality." So dominance might climb quite high, maybe 🤔
I think both are right but the timing matters. I reckon this is the last strong cycle, and after this it's going to be basically up only, with less volatility.
I liked your content when you talked about a variety of crypto projects & the crypto market (ie the cryptoverse) writ large... Interested to see what you talk about after 60% dominance is achieved...
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As much as it pains me, having rotated from BTC into ALTS October 2023, you’ve been on the money with your calls… I’m just hoping ALTs begin to catch up soooooon 😩🤣🤦🏻♂️
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Loved the content & your in depth analysis, but I just made it to 33 mins! Must be a Monday, I ate my lunch already, Halloween soon? Decision Time this week, got it, thanks!!
tick tock
Next block?
☝️🧐-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and TH-cam verified☑️
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tock tick
Satoshi clock
Bloomberg + Reuters + WSJ = doesn’t even come close to Benjamin Cowen's analysis.
Thanks always Ben!
@@hnry521 what's a Bloomberg?
Is the wsj still printing? I thought they went out of business YEARS ago!!
@@elskid206 yh idk what that is i only watch youtube. TV and online news is for old ppl. maybe its just easier than video for dem cus they develop dementia n stuff and cant even recognise themself in mirror
ok 🤣
@@noobvsprominecraftbuild well, your writing clearly shows it
you're** learn grandma kid
Ben's watchlist is so last cycle.
He is using history to predict the future 😉😉😉. He is also spot on with his theories
@@coldaz7133op is being ironic.
@@R3IMU People need to realize that READING what is typed does not give the reader the body language and the tonality cues which the LISTENER picks up on allowing the LISTENER to "get it", but causes CONFUSION for the READER.
So if someone is using sarcasm or irony or hyperbole to be cute, they're NOT; they're being confusing.
😆
@@elskid206I agree in a general context, but I also disagree with the specific context of outgroup vs. Ingroup jokes. The meaning becomes clear and contextualized once you have spent enough time interacting with others in the ingroup. A great example is old 4chan where pretty much all posts were some form of irony and inside joke. Not all jokes are aimed at everyone.^^
Nuclear presentation Ben. We waiting for it
I bought 2 bitcoin in 2013 for 45 euros... it's now worth 120+ I'm still in HODL mode
Nice! You better not share this information, because it makes you very very vulnarable for hacker attacks (for example sim swap)
Btc has grown like 100 000% since then. If u only did a measly 300% ure retarded
Dude sell some, what are you doing 😂 take some profits, you earned it lol
@@MaxMustermann-td2wi why tf would he sell right now
@@HazeGamesHD if he's buying in 2013 he 100% has cold storage set up with no sim swap possible
Ben! I will give you a high five and a job well done if you release the next video as Dracula pointy fangs cape white face the whole nine yards that would truly be one for the record books.
"Today we're talking about bitcoin... Muahahaha!"
I made huge mistakes evaluating the depth of consequences regarding BTC dominance. I watched all your videos since 2021 and thought I understood your point and agreed with you. However, after missing the exact BTC bottom in 2022 and seeing altcoin market collectively head higher in late 2023, I believed it would be better forget about Bitcoin and try and catch undervalued altcoins rather than stick to the king. Perhaps I thought this cycle would be somewhat left-translated since everybody were still calling for already-late recession etc. Big mistake. Some alts did outperform, yea, but in grand scheme of things BTC would've been the only logical option. I made good money but decided to hold those assets only to see valuations evaporate into thin air. It hurts a lot, although I didn't lose everything nor did I panic sell anything.
I should've done better job putting your words - which I agreed on - into practice. I suppose it's the emotion thing that plays a big role here. Basically what I want to say is, that I was you in 2018 (in regards what you have told you did in 2018) and that you were right all the time. And I agreed. Yet I still managed to follow my "instinct" or emotion instead of what I simultaneously believed is going to happen. I made a costly mistake but I don't need to call you names because of my own stupidity. Next time I WILL do better. Perhaps I make some even this time.
Keep up the good work Ben, I have great respect to you & your work in this space.
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This is so relatable 🥲
Yep I echo your sentiments to the t
Benjamin is it time to open a x3 leverage position using my whole portfolio?
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if the cyclical view prevails, how would eth go home then?
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@22:25 "The bears sound smarter, but the bulls make money" - best quote from Ben Cowen 🙂
We're just in a holding pattern until the election.
Bitcoin is universal
Feeling conflicted hoping for a negative jobs report Friday.
i mean in 2007 after the first rate cut after bonkers October jobs data november's data was very very bad causing a massive correction for the rest of the year
your view is highly likely
I personally hold a safe haven portfolio to DCA in case this occurs. And sell my shorts to adquire bullish gains
@@llumiinati DCAing is the way! Attempting to dynamic DCA for the first time.
Make the pain stop, I summon the crypto gods to start the parabolic stage lol
No not yet I want to accumulate more 😂
Shoulda stuck to BTC. Pretty painless, but boring
If you sell it will start pumping!
Hello Ben, could you maybe make a summary video in the future on what you learned from the current cycle? :)
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just an aside - - - have you considered wearing a Star Trek uniform during your presentations? Not sure which color. And, try to make your ears a bit longer. Back to the charts.
Hilarious 😂
Not red, Ben has way too much stamina 😂
Has to be blue!
Ben, I really appreciate your content-thank you so much! 🙏🏻 If you ever run for president, I’d gladly vote for you.
On the subject of monetary policy, the Fed has two major levers. They have the rate controls but also have the balance sheet.
And the second is still in QT
@@SoliSol321 Indeed
All is well, all is well
what would constitute rejection?
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I think this cycle holds, but is the last one. The halving becomes decreasingly relevant now most of the BTC is mined, and also retail is becoming increasingly irrelevant.
We are transitioning into the next phase where BTC becomes less volatile and edges closer to becoming the global reserve.
If btc becomes the global reserve it will become volatile AF (to the upside)
@@N0k4N oh yeah, it's going way beyond the moon, it's going into interstellar space....
But after that, I think it plateaus, much as the USD has been relatively stable. We don't see 80% drawdowns on USD 🤣
Hit 70k today and dropped immediately, so you think we just waiting on monetary, & are you saying we actually can see 42k
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I think you're right Ben. You have my vote 2024
If you change the playback speed to 1.5 he turns into Ben Shapiro.
The real reason everyone is here.
😂
my opinion: FED + Unemployment > market cycle
i believe in monetary view more than the cyclical view.
Playing devils advocate here.But if on the FOMC on 7th Nov, the fed pivoted to QE and then we saw a pump, wouldnt that mean that we couldnt accredit either the cyclical view nor the monetary policy view? Someone correct me if im wrong :)
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The counterpoint is that for QE to begin, it would seem like the markets would need to sell off first.
Thanks Ben, when we hit 60% BTCD what is your target bottom for BTCD before you go back to the king(BTC)?
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❤❤❤ 48:45
ITC ❤
when does eth/btc stop bleeding? .035?
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Unlike previous cycles, ETH has treated the logarithmic regression band as support so far. Does this suggest that ETH may not go all the way home this cycle?
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Sahm Rule Indicator shows, that since December 1959, whenever it hit above 0.5 we hit a recession.
Assuming it has a slow start, we might see a slow but long rise.
34:50 ETH
Ben, does this not depend on whether the jobless rate is bullish or bearish?
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Waiting for Bitcoin: Accumulation Phase of a Life Time
You missed it by about two years lol
No more room to go down, we held the monthly RSI support line, I forbid closing below it!
Hey there, Ben and Cryptoversians! I love the comparison of BTC 2024 and 2019-2020, so I got a question. So, there was a breakout in from 14th January 2020, and the high at 13th February 2020, and although this high is higher than the previous one (26th October 2019), it was still lower than the high of 6th September 2019, and then it got to the hard landing. So here's my question - is it possible that BTC will exceed the previous high (29th July 2024), but will still be lower than the high of 7th June? In that case, BTC could still reach 70-72K, and then rest a bit on the just above lower-high support line, deciding on what kind of landing will it get?
Thank you for providing your invaluable content, Ben. It changed my life, bless you.
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Bitcoin to 120K, you heard it here first ;)
21:49 is the Ben Cowen mission statement
Love the weekly outlook.
Very interesting video, Ben. I feel like the cyclical view is a bit thin whereas the monetary policy view has more substance: growing continued claims, QT continuation, positive correlation of BTC with ETH, lows of OTHERS/BTC and possible continuation of downtrend. If we bring it all together, I have a feeling there is one more rally down before we go up for good.
He knows this but he maintains the cyclical view in order to be a bit optimistic
ben, my wise teacher, a tesla update video please
I think this is just playing out in front us. I love this guy
It's funny how delusional some people are even amongst your followers which I would assume to be better informed and more open minded.
You don't invest with hope, you invest per the reality and the available data.
Don't fight the market.
Academic Rigor means everything, Ben. Like knowledge and truth. An informed choice depends on academic rigor. (Freedom from shills and fakes). Could Btc.D keep rising after 60%? To 62%? 65%?
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Presidential election > labor market
what if both the monetary policy view and cyclical are both correct. monetary policy view matters during “hard landings environments”. where as cyclical view matters more for “soft landing environments”. the quicker the run to safe assets the more monetary value holds more weight in enticing a narrative shift
as reflected by the steep btc correction slope in 2019 vs 2024
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Thank you so much Ben for everything
Dammit Ben why couldn’t I find you back in March when I was alt heavy?
I was watching him when alts were at their local peaks and I still held like a retard
Quite Brilliant. Bravo Ben
It's as if the stars have been aligning for 3 years now, for this exact moment. Poetic
Next Bitcoin risk metric video?
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pls fix your audio level
60 % target achieved.....wonder whats next ??
the extra yr is due to helicopter $ saved, Fed decifict, treasury repo back door liquidity and Bit ETF speculation.
Thank you Ben. Real Alpha content.
DOGE is right there next to BTC on the watchlist 👀
It will dump hard. I’m setting some buy orders at $52k, $48k, and a wick down special at $39k
🤣🤣🤣🤣
I'd love that too but that's also how I felt before the earpy 2024 pump and got left behind
Lmao
LMFAO
bottom signal
Yes I also have orders at 39k.
People forget that BTC likes a good shakeout dip before it trampolines.
At 44:00 you bring up an excellent point about tightening cycles, Bitcoin , which reminded me about what Larry Fink referred to as, "a flight to quality." So dominance might climb quite high, maybe 🤔
Impressive how indecisive BTC is to take one side...
Thx for ur effort Ben,ty so much.
Excellent! I don't see anyone who has this depth of knowledge and review of Bitcoin price movement.
14:13 tellum how it is
another great video
The Pug abides.
Doge moving up Ben's watchlist on trading view over the past year.
Hey everyone and thanks for dropping BACK into the Cryptoverse 🙌
I will welcome that market pull back with 2 hands lol
My guts tell me cyclical view, head monetary.
I think both are right but the timing matters. I reckon this is the last strong cycle, and after this it's going to be basically up only, with less volatility.
dont shit on ur pants
I can't believe we get such deep insight for free!!!! Thank You Ben for sharing your educated views with us poor folk!
My heart beats faster every time I see Ben’s new vid.
Brilliant! My money’s on monetary policy.
This video's equation:
Q4 of 2016 muliplied with Q4 2019 = Q4 2024
Much respect Ben
I liked your content when you talked about a variety of crypto projects & the crypto market (ie the cryptoverse) writ large... Interested to see what you talk about after 60% dominance is achieved...
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Thank you from Germany
Dominance will beat 60
Thank you sir
BTC.D 60% !
Been watching your videos a long time....thx
As much as it pains me, having rotated from BTC into ALTS October 2023, you’ve been on the money with your calls… I’m just hoping ALTs begin to catch up soooooon 😩🤣🤦🏻♂️
Thank you Ben! You don't always deliver good news but you are good for an accurate message. Looking forward to your next!
It looks like the decision is happening. Can we get a watch party
Thanks Ben!
Thank you Benjamin 🙌
Seems like all money is flowing into gold because of global uncertainty. At some time all this money cloud flow back to riskier assets.
Sweep the low. You have a problem with that? No, Ben-sei.
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❤❤❤ 0:08
sorry for what?? It's not even December yet
But bro always after election btc will pump pls check it
We made it!!!! 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Very helpful video, as always
ETH can't go lower. Everyone is already so down bad it would be really brutal. (I know it can but ETH holders are really struggling).
Could you please talk about avax
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Thank you
TYSM for real Brother
Btc.d bouncing off the reverted 618 🤷♂️
thanks Ben
this is poetry
The market won’t do ANYTHING until the election is over.
Loved the content & your in depth analysis, but I just made it to 33 mins! Must be a Monday, I ate my lunch already, Halloween soon? Decision Time this week, got it, thanks!!