SOFI STOCK: HUGE SALE, INSIDER PURCHASES, STRONG OUTLOOK, CHEAP STOCK?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ย. 2024
- A lot has happened with SOFI stock in just the past few weeks. The Qatar Investment Authority, sold nearly 20 million shares of SOFI near it's current 52 week lows, while the CEO, Anthony Noto keeps buying SOFI stock. The CFO provided guidance for 2026, and SOFI stock seems cheap if they can achieve their outlook...
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SOFI stock has a lot of what I like to see. There's significant insider buying and guidance that suggests the stock could be quite cheap. The market is assigning a limited premium on the stock right now, despite very clear growth in their Financial Services segment. At some point, I might consider buying SOFI shares, but I've been busy researching and buying another stock recently that I think has a similar set-up with very compelling upside potential. You can read more about it at www.unrivaledinvesting.com
QIA had approximately $315 million in preferred shares that were redeemed and 12 million warrants that expired worthless last month. So out of their initial investment of $500M, they had about 20 million common shares left equating to about $140 million. The bulk of their investment was in preferred shares with a large guaranteed return pre ipo.
I haven't looked lately, but I recall they had to retain 50% of their investment to retain their seat on the board, and although they were on the ballot and confirmed to the board in the annual meeting on May 21, 2024, the preferred wasn't actually redeemed until May 29, 2024. So at that time, they effectively would lose their required seats, and they likely sold because of their decreased investment and lack of a board seat in the future.
I am pretty sure there was no other reason, but I'm sure someone will say that well, they could have bought more with their preferred proceeds. So maybe you could view that as a negative.
But they aren't a classic institutional investor. They got a great return on their preferred and sofi investment and moved on when that return was no longer guaranteed.
It's not often a credible management team provides outlook and WallStreet significantly values it lower. Based on their track record, comments about not including additional products, and conservative lending, I think it's realistic they hit $1 EPS, and still growing at 25%. At a P/E of 35X, it has a realistic upside of over 5X in 2.5 years!
I must say as a SOFI share holder, it has been frustrating for the price to be sitting near 52 week lows while the broader markets continue pushing all time highs. But i will continue to buy and hold. I am glad that i did sell a few covered call options back when SOFI was up. Those are up big and have offered some hedging relief.
Qatar had a ton of warrants that expired worthless about 1-2 months ago. They also lost a board seat so they decided to cut and run. It’s sad to see them go, but fundamentally the company is still going strong. I don’t see a reason to sell unless opportunity costs are a factor 🤷♂️
Great video again Daniel ! Been following the channel for 3 years now and you are only getting better !
Thank you for the kind feedback!
All i can do is dca and wait this year out.. waiting for the eps jump next year and 4 quarters of positive eps.. that might be the turning point
Omg the hair, it's glorious but prefer it longer and messier version
lol! Too hot in the summer for long and messy... this winter!
I think there is a PSU package for the CEO at 25$,35$ and 45$ with a target date of June 2026. I feel PE should be a 1.5X multiple of EPS /revenue growth. Also considering cash on balance sheet. I think this is valued quite modestly. One of my friend tells me there is a good price for a bad stock and also a bad price for a good stock, yet to see how stable SOFI will eventually become.
nice vid, and interesting perspective, as always. It is indeed looking interesting paying such a low multiple for a proven growth stock such as SOFI. I guess the risk/reward would be really great if you could buy the stock at 1x book value, would need to fall some more for that to happen though of course. Oh and, joining in on the numerous other comments on your full head of hair, I agree, just go ahead and change your name to Handsome Investing already, would save us all a lot of future commenting.
Dumped half my shrs in 1 acct that bought @9-10. Wait to see where bottoms out in 6's to buy again.
What everyone seems to forget is that the traditional American banks are very disliked. They provide crappy services, use every scummy trick to charge surprise fees, have held back updating US payment tech for decades and of course have been the cause of or core to every financial crisis in the last 100 years. People are desperate for alternatives and SOFI is a solid option. PayPal had potential at one point to become the banking alternative but they just stopped innovating and instead chose to extract more money from established customers. SOFI is pushing ahead and working on more and more service offerings that work. They will keep accumulating millennial and gen-z customers and when the boomers start passing down inheritance money steadily or die off there will be a big sea change. Trad banks will be losing their old customers that couldn't be bothered to switch while SOFI will be gaining customers that are growing their wealth. The stagnant share price now is a dream for long term investors. They'll do well over the next 5 years but thinking longer than that they only have building headwinds behind them.
Is there any way we could see who is shorting the company? is it the competitors just trying to suppress the sentiment and stock price? Makes me wonder if the sharps that are shorting know something we don't. Food for thought. I have been an investor in SoFi since IPOE
It's not hard to imagine the fossil wall street banks heavily shorting a competitor (read: SoFi) who is rapidly taking market share (current revenue) and younger customers (future revenue) away from them at an alarming rate
@@asiaamplified Yes, and it is also some of these very same institutions that provide many of the analyst upgrades and downgrades of companies such as SoFi.
I read somewhere that he was one of the board members, fired or resigned, selling close to 20 million shares, his entire holding!!! But, CEO AND CFO are buying away as price is dropping!!
My understanding is that QIA didn’t lose as much as you might think selling those shares. They were in pre-SPAC and had already sold several million shares at over $21. They probably see that they can make money elsewhere while waiting for the macros to turn in SOFI’s favor so they got out. For now.
The major question is whether those $20M exchanged hands with institutional investors or retail investors. If retail then there can be some problem. If institutional investors then we are safe to buy SOFI at CMP.
Since it is a financial services company it is overall valued low but in the near future I guess buying at $6.5 would make it a $65 in ten years - but again the question comes in - do you have the guts and power to hold it till then ? Not all would have. Hence only 1% win in stock markets
Additionally, SoFi WILL have 3 more quarters of profitability, which will allow them to be in the S&P.
Yes, if SoFi's market cap reaches the $12B requirement which would need its stock price to reach about $12 a share. Right now it's half.
Didn’t the director (mike cagney) that sold their stake get canned? That’s why he sold.
After mostly selling out of SOFI in December, I purchased more late last week. The analyst that put a $4 price target on it gave me pause, I'll admit. I personally am glad they are not going for broke.
The analyst that provided the $4 price target is a zero star analyst with one of the worst track records on Wall Street.
Patience. Most peep will sell but it will double at least.
Unfortunately the key for the stock price to go up is the Fed Rate to decrease. This is unfortunate because SoFi has been growing in the past 4 quarters due to its diversified products regardless of the high interest rates. They are profitable for a second quarter, revenues are up steadily and the stock price is down steadily. But eventually it is 100% guaranteed that the stock price will catch up as long as SoFi keeps performing and growing like it has been as per its guidance.
Why I can not see any negative comment on Sofi from youtube. This is a huge problem. If everyone believe it will go up, who will sold it? Think it
Great job thanks !
Great stuff, and I like your new haircut!
Thank you!
I have been selling puts @ $6.00. Do not own any shares yet.
Can u please make jpm stock analysis 🙏
Empty video...
I'm building a position!
I would like to add they have lost a lot of investor confidence with continuous dilution. They need to make a commitment to share holders with these gains.
Nice haircut Daniel!
I wonder what kind of conditioner he uses? His hair certainly sports unrivaled volume
Market is cyclical. Sofi is fintech and fintech has been flat for this year. They most likely bottomed out but there will be a time when fintech will be the ai.
Market is cyclical and it will reward those that are patient.
Now I’m not saying to go out and buy sofi right now and I have no idea what the valuation of sofi is. Just be wary of market conditions and the volatility of sectors
The July $7 puts 😬
PAYPAL or SOFI, which stock would you pick if you could only choose one?
Chose both, also NU, put a little in each of the three to start a position. Note that these companies won't pick up until rates go down. Also if we hit a recession things might get tight for everyone due to delinquencies on loans even as rates go down.
@@mr-Andrei If you would asked me to chose between PAYPAL and SOFI, I actually would truly pick NU... Haha
But maybe you are right, a blend out of all three might be smart.
Take it easy there, Charlie Sheen. This stock has never moved significantly since my time on this earth. Also, the main reason I tell people to stay way clear of this stock is because by it's very nature it is trying to be an alternative to traditional banks. Meanwhile the banks, you know those guys who run the markets, are probly not too keen on this idea. Not a top pick of mine. In fact there is a whole other stock market out there so you don't have to mess with these crazy fintechs.
Yes but they cant stop sofi from taking customers, sofi stole me from Wells fargo, and it will continue to happen this way for the long term. Numbers will show this, in the long term.
@@mr_i3ig461 Interesting. I'll keep an eye out to see what happens. I'm not against it. I just figure banks have enough power to squeeze someone out that is trying to compete.
What does SOFI provide that normal banks do not already provide? As a general rule of thumb avoid banks because you have no idea what they are holding or what potential land mines exist on their balance sheet.
Simply put SoFi offers higher returns to its customers (4.60% APY on Savings) which comes from savings from not having physical branches and from a more streamlined automated interaction for services. Simply put customers do all of their banking in the SoFi app whether it's banking, investing, loans, etc. Note that unlike other FinTechs SoFi is a fully national chartered bank covered by the FDIC so it's as good as any other bank with your money.
@@mr-Andrei yes as good as any other bank…
@@mr-Andrei Bank of America, like every other large bank, has an app.
Tech platform and no branches….nothing like a legacy bank with legacy operating platforms
@@holyhandgrenadeofantioch2019 Bank of America also has massive fees tied to anything you do with them. SoFi has no fees and is ranked as the number one online bank in the world by its members.
Are you planning on doing a hair styling video 😅
Ha! You wouldn't want pointers from me!
I guess I started buying at the right time… “Be greedy when others are fearful.”-Warren Buffett
Watching too much uncle Brucey. Lol.
SoFI sucks. Worst investment I ever made as well as NIO. That’s what happens when you watch too much TH-cam.
The woulda shoulda.. sold sofi end of 2023... went all in on nvidia...wow... all I can have is I shoulda
Yes, it hasn't been a good investment in the past and it probably won't get any better in the coming months. But most retail investors are too impatient and don't have a longer-term view. NIO, on the other hand, is a completely different story. It has never been profitable and will not be in the foreseeable future, currently no growth, china risk, major competition.
Think you may have bought Sofi for the wrong reasons, stock isn’t great but company is….need the right investing timeframe and you’ll have no issues here
It's a bit early to tell just yet. Come back in 2028 and see how it went, then make a judgement. Short term movements are quite random and you can't really judge stock performance on short term movements.
Impatient baby 🙄
Saudi Arabia chose not to renew the petrodollar agreement.
Qatar & other countries may want to boycott the U.S. because of their decades long occupation & wars for oil in the Mideast.
YT grifters jumping for joy that someone creditible is making a bullish video on the stock they're 50+% down on
they are not sold out. They could fall even 20% more. If the sell off was 19840073 shares, then the price can sink by 30%. I have to say that it was planned as point of time against me. And i can even see the small details.
QIA did sell out all of there shares at an average SP of 6.78 on Friday last week.
@@isaiahmiranda1950 Yes, but QIA or any other investor doesn't sell out of the blue. In most cases, some information is available not suddenly in the last 12 hours that a large amount of shares have been sold.