“Common sense said stay out” is exactly the mentality which caused Lando to lose in Sochi. You gotta trust the team man, should’ve pitted when they first called him in
@@shalansharma443 It's exactly the same. The team always has information the driver doesn't, whether that be information on rivals tyres or weather forecasts. Drivers shouldn't need it explaining to them that the teams are making their calls based on the information at hand and not wild guesses. There's ALWAYS a reason for when a team pits, whether it be undercutting, overcutting, other teams performance or whathave you, teams are never obliged to explain to their drivers what is going on - it's usually a call to box and the driver has some faith in the call and obliges instead of getting into a discussion with the pit wall over what's influencing the call unless it's particularly outlandish. In Sochi it was a weather forecast that Norris made it abundantly clear he didn't want to hear, in Turkey it was the predicted dropoff on tyre performance and where that would leave Hamilton.
Norris didn't use his common sense though, he just didn't want to give up leading the race, his first race win, that's what blinded him. I'm not saying it would have ended up well had Hamilton stayed out, but surely you give him all the information, the time gaps to those he's racing behind him and let him make the call. He is a 7 times world champion and had endless experience so I'd trust him to make the right call over Lando who is still learning a lot. He has challenged and disobeyed calls before and it turned out to be the right call. When he came in was too late and was never going to work so by not pitting around the time Perez did he had to risk staying out in my opinion even if he'd lost an extra place or two. They may as well have given it 2 or 3 more laps to see how much closer Gasly was getting, even Perez and Leclerc and then made the call, it would have left them in no wise a position and they might have just held on for 3rd.
If Lewis had pitted when Mercedes first told him to… maybe he could’ve done better. However, Lewis second guessing Mercedes has won races before. Neither the team or the driver really screwed up here, it’s just racing.
Yea I was gonna say similar. Even if this is more Lewis fault there are times we had went against the team and gained. How many drivers can say they’ve done that several times?
Great summary. Pitting this late was damage control rather than strategizing for victory. Sometimes you have to follow the data instead of your intuition. This was a judgment call by Lewis that didn't work out.
To be fair we don't know if Lewis was wrong because he didn't do what he wanted. He should have stayed out since he wanted to but who knows he would probably be blaming it on something else if he stayed out and it didn't work lol.
I mean Mercedes usually defer to Lewis's own call in the past and it usually pays off. You can't just give Lewis all the credit when it goes right and blame the team when it doesn't. It is what it is.
When Lewis made bad calls in the past, they didn't have the impact that they do this year. Lewis didn't see the big picture but was let make the decision anyways. If they said big picture this is faster, that may have made the difference. This one was a combination of both. The team didn't give Lewis all of the information he needed, and Lewis didn't seem to think about the big picture.
@@DarkPhoenixDack125 Lewis hasn't got all the facts and this was one of those occasions when James should have come over the radio with a message "Lewis, it's James. You need to f***ing box NOW."
Last time in Sochi, when everyone was criticizing Norris for staying out, I made the comment that if Hamilton had been out front he may have made the same call. And all the Hamilton fans went "he would never take a gamble like that, he would have thought about the championship and would never take that risk". Well...literally the very next race he screwed his own strategy gambling and taking unnecessary risks.
I saw someone else say this and it’s probably true: if Hamilton was in front he likely would’ve pitted to match Verstappen, because he’d already changed to inters. The main thing they would’ve wanted is to beat Verstappen, not necessarily win the race
Yeah that’s what I was thinking. In Sochi people were saying that’s the difference between an immature driver and a world champion. Hamilton gambled just like Norris did and it didn’t pay off.
Life is a series of gambles. Some odds are better than most but ultimately nothing is certain. A micromort is a unit of risk defined as a one-in-a-million chance of death, it's used to measure the risk of death on day to day activities. As in how likely are you to die when on a bike for an hour or in an amusment park or at work in a bank etc. Scientifically, these gambles are everywhere and in high profile and risky and well documented occasions, there is no right or wrong decision. It's always just a gamble. Like picking red or black on a roulette table. Neither is a good or bad decision. But it can make you a millionaire.
@@jerrysuckling662 yes at this point the race between those two is who gets more points. I bet if max finished 9th and Lewis 10th the rest of the season max would care less about not winning a race. Same the other way around.
It was a gamble that they only had to do earlier, if hamilton had pitted several laps before then his new tyres would have helped him get a better finish
So it was a series of decisions that wrecked Hamilton's race, but what/who started those decisions: Perez! Imagine if Checo hadn't defended so masterfully, Hamilton would not only be at the podium but also would have finished better than Verstappen. Redbull & Verstappen owns a lot to Parez for his defending. No matter what, Perez is really underappreciated for what he pulled off in Turkey.
Exactly, if Verstappen wins the world championship by few points it's thanks to Perez huge defending against Hamilton in turkey. If Ham had overtaken Per, his race would have been completely different
@@BurningmonkeyGTR And finally red bull's second driver is delivering what they were looking for. Proabably their best decision to bet on experienece rather than on another young gun
@@abhisheksingh5896 Yes indeed, but Perez has been plagued by inconsistency in qualifying and really bad luck in races, but again we also get these wonderful moments of Perez driving that RB16b.
@@AstroAvenger yeah, he is a bit inconsistent in qualifying, but at least he can pay it back in race, doing max a favor, not like mr "they race me so hard"
Sounds like what really threw a cog in Mercedes' machine was Pérez's successful defense against Hamilton on track (and Tsunoda's, to some extent). I love seeing how an on-track performance such as that one can have a domino effect on the rival team's strategy.
Any chance at podium was likely lost in the early stages of the race. It took Hamilton 3 laps to get around Yuki, and by the time he passed Tsunoda on lap 8, he was already 10 seconds back of Perez. Hamilton's fight against Perez and Tsunoda surely wore his tires, I can't imagine they would have lasted until the end (unlike Ocon's easy pace.)
This video is a work of art. I always like the way you deliver the subjects, but this one is an incredible highlight to me. Presenting the race as a series of choices was so smart.
I remember last year when Lewis took the call to stay out when the team told him to come in, at the exact same track, and it worked beautifully. Sometimes, things just don't your way, it happens.
the team should have pitted Lewis when he asked them to, before Perez. also, it was a further 9 laps until they called him in again, why did it take them so long to decide the tires would not last, Lewis not pitting is irrelevant as they could have told him at any stage after that they looked at the data and pitting was best and Lewis would have followed.
It didn't dry enough for slicks that's all. They made the right call throughout. If it dried enough for slicks it could have been a podium. So they had to wait. It was a gamble and they didn't lose much due to their damage control either.
Great video. I don’t agree with everything you say about F1, but I know your opinions come from a position of knowledge and careful thought, which deserves respect and acknowledgement especially as the signal to noise ratio plummets to near zero. (Amazing how much of your content comes from “I know a lot of people are saying X, but it’s not that simple.” doing your part keeping at least some signal out there :) ) Kudos.
Hamilton did himself in by not pitting when they told him to earlier. Similarly in Sochi he didn't want to pit and would've come 7th or so if he hasn't listened. Either listen to the team or don't. If you do that's a win and a 3rd. Don't and it's a 3rd and a 7th ish. Tired of all this "Lewis wins brilliantly,/the team fail him" media bs. Not saying that's your take CB. Just in general.
That said look what happened at Turkey LAST year. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Hindsight would tell you that pitting a couple of laps before the Red Bulls would have been the best way to go, but that depended on them pitting and if they did pit, when they pitted. It was one of those times when you're damned if you do, damned if you don't.
it's annoying to hear when Ham wins it's all his merit but when he loses it' all the team's fault. He decided to not listen to the team and stay out and he paid the consequences
@@alessandromarino1874 But he came in the next lap!!! That one lap didn't cost him anything, except the possibility of finishing higher. Once he pitted his face was done, except for having to defend against Gasly. The evidence of the other pitstops was that there weren't enough laps remaining for the tyres to grain in so the choice was gambling that the tyres would last the race and with enough pace to keep him in 5th or higher. What I'd have liked to hear in this video was what are the last lap times that Lewis and Perez (maybe also Gasly) were doing on the laps prior to the lap Lewis did his stop and the gaps, whilst projecting (with margins of errors) what was likely to happen in terms of Perez and Leclerc potentially catching and passing Lewis, and Gasly as well. I just think when Lewis said the types felt ok he should have been trusted to make the call and unless there was a bit dropoff or danger of tyre failure then it should have been his decision. Unless the team had some data that told them this was going to happen, which didn't seem to be shared with him if he then decided not to pit and he loses points because of it it's on his head. All drivers make good calls and bad calls in races, but I just felt watching the race that when Mercedes called him in it was pointless, except to protect a 5th place and I don't think this was discussed with Lewis, unless we just didn't hear this (but the fact he was shocked when after the stop he was told he was in 5th he couldn't have been).
As always, I loved the video =) Still, I was a bit confused when you showed time differences in purple because F1 uses purple to represent fastest laps as well. I don't know if you could have used some other color in your palette.
I agree, it was very interesting to see how the tyres worked at turkey, Danny Ric was within a second stroll in the last 10 laps before falling away to like 30 or 40 seconds and being passed by 2 cars after having some of the best pace throughout the middle of the race. In hindsight, the best strategy was pitting around the middle of the race to prevent any sort of major drop off like we saw with ocon, meaning the tyres were in the sweet spot for a major part of the race.
I nearly skipped this video because the topic has been done to death by every pundit out there….but somehow you manage to bring fresh insight. Appreciate you always
This video is out together so well. Wow mate the quality has risen up so much. You certainly need more views on this and you are100% UNDERRATED. The charts, the mind map possibilities thing, everything made the whole thing so effortlessly easy to understand, but when one steps back and sees, it has so much effort gone behind it. I don't know whether you have an editor or you yourself do this, but whoever did this video's visual is very talented... Wow, the first time I'm not thinking of the video topic, but rather appalled by the video's production efforts. You are undoubtedly the best F1 youtuber out there... On the other hand, maybe try more educational videos on youtube. make a different channel unrelated to F1, but explaining something else altogether.
If you want to know what could've happened, check the 2006 Hungarian GP. Schumi, who had a difficult race (started 11th, front wing damage, was a lap down at one point) found himself 2nd on used, worn inters on a drying track, while everyone else switched to drys. He was also in a close championship battle, with Alonso, who already retired, so it was a great chance to reduce his points deficit. He thought he could defend the position on the twisty track, but the others were multiple seconds faster on slicks. The result? He banged wheels with Heidfeld, damaged his suspension and finished 8th. If he had pitted, he could've been 5th at least.
Great analysis Chain Bear. It could have been a Räikkönen at the Nürburgring situation. Losing all the points on the last lap in heartbreak. We’ll never know for sure 🤷
Alonso pitted first? Thought that the entire F1 crew were hawkishly staring down Ricciardo to see where the Inters were going before informing other drivers
But he pitted really early, he didn't use the tyres to full extent... lap 25-30 was the projected slick transition, Alonso basically started the chain of pits is what he meant in the vid, Ric induced the chain...
I agree about how data analysis ruins strategy, but there's not really a way to feasibly get rid of it any more. Anyone could run a simulation off-site and send tactics to the team
It's always hard when you have data vs intuition. Data is accurate and never "wrong", but sometimes we're mising some data and of course, garbage in garbage out. Intuition can be wrong, but takes in some data we can't measure/encode. I say by default trust engineers but once you've decided to overule it, continue to do so. It's hamilton's race to call after his first refusal to pit
Great work as always. I don't understand why there's talk about Lewis "losing places" or "wrecking his race", though. He was fifth when the pitstops started, he finished fifth. He did not lose a position or wreck his race. The only thing he lost, by not pitting at the same time as Perez, is another crack at Checo on new tyres and most likely overtaking Leclerc who suffered even more than Lewis from his gamble for the win.
It was somewhat clear that he couldn't drive to the end with that set of tyres. He was pushing for positions and got stuck behind cars so that alone means he has worse tyres compared to others. Also the track conditions made a later inters change more risky. It's a drying track and it was nearly at the crossover point. That means the best tyres are the ones you have on. For fresh slicks it was to early. Would the rain be the other way around, meaning it was a dry track and it got wetter, new inters would be bad too. So a change would mean the driver looses a lot more, because he need to drive in the new tyres. Also fruther into the race, the track conditions can get better. Lewis pitted too late but at that point, it was the best he could do. It was a poor race for him, because to much risk was taken in hindsight and he lost the gamble. Lets not forget what could have been possible. The track was able to dry up a bit more and pushing the slicks into the better window. Also in rain, mistakes are likely and a safety car was possible. For example with Vettel. He was a candidate to cause an accident for the one lap, he was on slicks and it looked like so. These decisions he and his team made looked stupid on screen but maybe they would have been heros, when the condition turned a bit into their favor. The viewers can only see the TV screen and not into minds.
Yeah, Ocon didn't stop and fit new rubber, but people seem to ignore the fact that towards the end he was also FOUR SECONDS off the pace... And looking at the picture that flashed up here, it's only by luck that he didn't get a blowout, which was why Pirelli was telling Mercedes to pull Hamilton in to prevent a tyre failure and that was from looking at the tyres from the first round of pit stops
Great content. Very professional and so well put together! Hamilton second guessing Merc cost him a position or two. But I put it a bit more on Merc for not pushing the point harder the need to pit. He listens when they are firm. But then I also understand them trying to hang it out for a dry track. It was a gamble and just didn’t work out their way.
I remember people on twitter babbling on about how Hamilton should've stayed out 🤣 ocon was proof in the pudding where it was the wrong call. He lost 50 seconds to sainz in 14 laps. And the fact that ocon only did that was because he was not in the points and he decided to gamble. Hamilton being a 7x wc not trusting his team is what will be his downfall this season. Also Hamilton pushed so many laps on the tyre still adamant to stay out. He witness what happens when you aren't on the right tyres on the right time in the form of timo Glock even.
remember he didnt trust his team last season on the same track and won. He instructed them not to pit him on lap 34 and turned out to be the right call. its all a gamble
@@TheTororist 9 times out of 10 the team will be right, also last year he could do whatever he wanted and there would be no severe consequences, this year, everyone in Mercedes is working their butts off to beat red bull. Even though I wanna see Hamilton's dominance ended, it wouldn't be a good way to see him go down not trusting his team on strategy. The *team* is in charge of the strategy, he's in charge of driving the car as well as possible
@@bacunnnn personally I think even when he overules a call and the strat team let him, ultimately it's still a team decision. He is part of the team as well. Same as when he listens to the team
well, Merc have cost him wins at France, Dutch GP and Hungary by making wrong strategic calls so im guessing Lewis isn't full of confidence in them this year. Lewis did tell them he needed the undercut on Perez and they failed to do that. the right call was to at least pit right after Perez at that point. fact is, merc where not sure what strategy to go on, hence why they waited a further 9 laps before pitting Lewis. why did they wait so long?
@@ddha0000 but the team won him the race in Spain for example. Also, Hungary was probably Hamilton's own fault, because if the rules are the same in the formation lap after a red flag as in the "normal" formation lap before the race start, the team wasnt even allowed to call him into the pits, as seen with Magnussen last year at the same track, where the team did just that and got penalized. But after all, strategies sometimes work out, sometimes they dont. But thats also one thing that makes racing interesting.
i make computer models, and that explanation was really good. we call it a “black box”, where inputs go in and something comes out. i dk if they actually model physics, or if they just use past results and measurements to predict what can happen given a set of conditions. either way its far from foolproof, so the people using the models need to have a good understanding of its limitations and when/how it can be wrong.
Yup! Totally agree! Finally someone talks about Ocons pase on the last laps. Perez, Charles, and Pier would have caught Lewis if those tyres did last! The team should have given him an order and not an opinion!
I think had Mercedes given a bit more context to Lewis he MAY have agreed to pit the first time around. But hindsight is 20/20 and I remember even the commentators questioning Mercedes' request to pit!
🤣🤣🤣 that's how everyone's been with Valtteri last weekend..."Big thanks to Valtteri though" and that's about all is said about his phenomenal drive. I mean...
in the decision tree 'pit' and 'not pit' should have been respectively always in the same position, whether up or down. It would make a clearer visual image and it would make more sense
I think Perez being 6th in the power rankings is a joke and I think this video proves why, he compromised Hamilton strategy so much that potentially he made him lose 5 points to Verstappen which at the end might make him win or not the championship, this season is amazing.
Though if not pitted, that last 3 laps of tire data would have been an hot intellectual property. Given that, from my perspective, no pit was a win-win. Pitting became like lose for sure and not even ponder the 'what if'.
Tbh I wish the data analysis information and weather was harder for teams to understand what's gonna happen before and during the race to keep them on there toes and nothing is a set in stone strategy
9:39 this is the point I take issue with. Lewis is not managing the old tyres. He's just overconfident. The tyres are gone, but the fact they've tuned that Mercedes up to look like they're racing in 2017 again meant that he thought it didn't matter. Slower through a corner? Who cares, you make up the difference in pure acceleration anyway. He was headed towards a wreck. He acknowledged the car was sliding around on lap 50. Cars go from loose to in the wall in a single lap. A loose car now is a crashed car next lap. Even a few drops of rain on T1 was a guarantee spin at best. Ocon managed his tyres to the end yes, but he did 1 less lap and he did so with alot less pace then Hamilton. Hamilton's car was faster, meaning it was putting the tyres through more stress. Ocon also didn't really battle for the entire race. Hamilton had battled Yuki and Perez and had to make passes on a bunch of other drivers. If he stays out, he's got a very good chance of spinning atleast, worst case scenario is a DNF that basically ends the season, and potentially, engine damage that means the penalty that put him in this position was for nothing. Imagine being Mercedes. You're looking at Hamilton and going "he's going to destroy that brand new engine we just took 10 grid positions for"
I actually think that had lewis put on dry tyres when he did finally pit he would have been able to blitz the field. The track was significantly drier by that point compared to when Seb sent for the dry tyres. By the time Lewis pitted there was a dry line, though drifting off it would have been bad.
Thank you so much for the analysis! Hamilton wouldn't need to worry about graining near the end of the race if he listened to Bono at first place. He could push the new tires much earlier.
Data analysis is important, but to know when to use the computer and when to use your gut, your feeling, your driver's feeling about the car, is more important.
Hamilton's initial choice to stay out was due to him thinking that the track would eventually dry enough for slicks, and that he could hold on with his original inters until then. He wasn't, at that point, trying to run all the way to the end on those tyres. If a dry line had emerged, say, 5 laps later, staying out would have been a masterstroke because he wasn't really losing time to the people who had pitted, and would have saved himself a pitstop. Evidentially, the team thought that it was possible, otherwise they could have overridden him and ordered him to box, as they did eventually.
This season is emotional and not a lot of people are using their brains cause of it. This was quite clearly not Lewis vs his team. They were all looking for that magical dry line and what really screwed Mercedes was that it didn't show up. From how they basically skipped P3 they were obviously looking forward to dry race so they screwed up even before the race really started. But that is how taking risks works, you win some, you lose some. In fact when it comes to risk you almost always lose.
“Common sense said stay out” is exactly the mentality which caused Lando to lose in Sochi. You gotta trust the team man, should’ve pitted when they first called him in
Commented this before finishing the video, he talks about it during 10:51 anyway. Haha oops
Unless you're a driver for Ferrari
@@TheLoboChefe we're looking into it!
@@shalansharma443 It's exactly the same. The team always has information the driver doesn't, whether that be information on rivals tyres or weather forecasts. Drivers shouldn't need it explaining to them that the teams are making their calls based on the information at hand and not wild guesses.
There's ALWAYS a reason for when a team pits, whether it be undercutting, overcutting, other teams performance or whathave you, teams are never obliged to explain to their drivers what is going on - it's usually a call to box and the driver has some faith in the call and obliges instead of getting into a discussion with the pit wall over what's influencing the call unless it's particularly outlandish.
In Sochi it was a weather forecast that Norris made it abundantly clear he didn't want to hear, in Turkey it was the predicted dropoff on tyre performance and where that would leave Hamilton.
Norris didn't use his common sense though, he just didn't want to give up leading the race, his first race win, that's what blinded him. I'm not saying it would have ended up well had Hamilton stayed out, but surely you give him all the information, the time gaps to those he's racing behind him and let him make the call. He is a 7 times world champion and had endless experience so I'd trust him to make the right call over Lando who is still learning a lot. He has challenged and disobeyed calls before and it turned out to be the right call. When he came in was too late and was never going to work so by not pitting around the time Perez did he had to risk staying out in my opinion even if he'd lost an extra place or two. They may as well have given it 2 or 3 more laps to see how much closer Gasly was getting, even Perez and Leclerc and then made the call, it would have left them in no wise a position and they might have just held on for 3rd.
Can we take a moment to appreciate the genius narration and the spot on visuals? Great work as always!
Nope, can't take a moment sorry
i can definitly take a moment, this video was pure genius, i mean now i want to see all of the others possibilities, this is madess.
Spot on visuals? THE RED BULLS ARE THE WRONG COLOR! :P
I can
@chainbear is the 🐐
If Lewis had pitted when Mercedes first told him to… maybe he could’ve done better.
However, Lewis second guessing Mercedes has won races before.
Neither the team or the driver really screwed up here, it’s just racing.
Yea I was gonna say similar. Even if this is more Lewis fault there are times we had went against the team and gained. How many drivers can say they’ve done that several times?
Um... That was 100% Lewis's fault. Yes he has won races by ignoring his team, but his team have won him races FAR more. Either way Ham made the call.
Lewis is a joke. A fraud of a driver. Even when the car does everything for him, he still fucks it up.
@@nath-wp7xp Fraud has 100 wins,hard to imagine what others are if Lewis is fraud lol
Sounds like the driver screwing himself up to me.
Great summary. Pitting this late was damage control rather than strategizing for victory. Sometimes you have to follow the data instead of your intuition. This was a judgment call by Lewis that didn't work out.
Lewis should have listened to his team in the first place. His know it all lost him the race
@@alessandromarino1874 You win some, you lose some.
@@sarthakmohanty997 Exactly
...and don't forget to blame someone else after the losing part
To be fair we don't know if Lewis was wrong because he didn't do what he wanted. He should have stayed out since he wanted to but who knows he would probably be blaming it on something else if he stayed out and it didn't work lol.
I mean Mercedes usually defer to Lewis's own call in the past and it usually pays off. You can't just give Lewis all the credit when it goes right and blame the team when it doesn't. It is what it is.
And vice versa... It's a team sport afterall like Arrivabene said, you won as a team and you loose as a team.
When Lewis made bad calls in the past, they didn't have the impact that they do this year. Lewis didn't see the big picture but was let make the decision anyways. If they said big picture this is faster, that may have made the difference. This one was a combination of both. The team didn't give Lewis all of the information he needed, and Lewis didn't seem to think about the big picture.
@@DarkPhoenixDack125 Lewis hasn't got all the facts and this was one of those occasions when James should have come over the radio with a message "Lewis, it's James. You need to f***ing box NOW."
@@clansome Thank you for repeating what I just said...
@@DarkPhoenixDack125 lol sensitive much? You commented on the big picture and info, he commented on the insistence
Last time in Sochi, when everyone was criticizing Norris for staying out, I made the comment that if Hamilton had been out front he may have made the same call. And all the Hamilton fans went "he would never take a gamble like that, he would have thought about the championship and would never take that risk". Well...literally the very next race he screwed his own strategy gambling and taking unnecessary risks.
I saw someone else say this and it’s probably true: if Hamilton was in front he likely would’ve pitted to match Verstappen, because he’d already changed to inters. The main thing they would’ve wanted is to beat Verstappen, not necessarily win the race
Yeah that’s what I was thinking. In Sochi people were saying that’s the difference between an immature driver and a world champion. Hamilton gambled just like Norris did and it didn’t pay off.
Life is a series of gambles. Some odds are better than most but ultimately nothing is certain.
A micromort is a unit of risk defined as a one-in-a-million chance of death, it's used to measure the risk of death on day to day activities. As in how likely are you to die when on a bike for an hour or in an amusment park or at work in a bank etc.
Scientifically, these gambles are everywhere and in high profile and risky and well documented occasions, there is no right or wrong decision. It's always just a gamble. Like picking red or black on a roulette table. Neither is a good or bad decision. But it can make you a millionaire.
@@jerrysuckling662 yes at this point the race between those two is who gets more points. I bet if max finished 9th and Lewis 10th the rest of the season max would care less about not winning a race. Same the other way around.
Hamilton himself said that if he had been first he wouldn't have pitted, and even in P2 it took a lot of pressure from the team for him to pit
It was a gamble that they only had to do earlier, if hamilton had pitted several laps before then his new tyres would have helped him get a better finish
So it was a series of decisions that wrecked Hamilton's race, but what/who started those decisions: Perez! Imagine if Checo hadn't defended so masterfully, Hamilton would not only be at the podium but also would have finished better than Verstappen. Redbull & Verstappen owns a lot to Parez for his defending. No matter what, Perez is really underappreciated for what he pulled off in Turkey.
Exactly, if Verstappen wins the world championship by few points it's thanks to Perez huge defending against Hamilton in turkey. If Ham had overtaken Per, his race would have been completely different
It's what Perez was hired to do
@@BurningmonkeyGTR And finally red bull's second driver is delivering what they were looking for. Proabably their best decision to bet on experienece rather than on another young gun
@@abhisheksingh5896 Yes indeed, but Perez has been plagued by inconsistency in qualifying and really bad luck in races, but again we also get these wonderful moments of Perez driving that RB16b.
@@AstroAvenger yeah, he is a bit inconsistent in qualifying, but at least he can pay it back in race, doing max a favor, not like mr "they race me so hard"
"arm chair management, we all do it, doesn't mean we're right"
Erm... I'm always right when I'm shouting at the telly, that's a house rule!
curious thats my house rule, too. But we cant both be right, if we're at opposing opinions. right?
@@ShenLong991 Have you ever heard of Schrödinger's Cat?
Sounds like what really threw a cog in Mercedes' machine was Pérez's successful defense against Hamilton on track (and Tsunoda's, to some extent). I love seeing how an on-track performance such as that one can have a domino effect on the rival team's strategy.
Any chance at podium was likely lost in the early stages of the race. It took Hamilton 3 laps to get around Yuki, and by the time he passed Tsunoda on lap 8, he was already 10 seconds back of Perez. Hamilton's fight against Perez and Tsunoda surely wore his tires, I can't imagine they would have lasted until the end (unlike Ocon's easy pace.)
This video is a work of art. I always like the way you deliver the subjects, but this one is an incredible highlight to me. Presenting the race as a series of choices was so smart.
5:21 An edging tantric kind of race. I have not heard that phrase since the days of Murray Walker.
Wasn’t ready for “Tantric” in an F1 video 😂
"Tantric edging" to be precise
@@TypicallyThomas I certainly did a double take. Glad I wasn't taking a drink at the time. :P
Edging tantric.... Hmm.....
I was pretty adamant about Hamilton staying out until I saw the state of Ocon's tyres.
"An edging tantric kind of a race..." Well done for getting that line in there so casually!
This video is currently accessible through your playlists, just so you know.
The true first
How tf did you comment this 2 days ago
Legit first this guy
@@smolmin7386 the comment is the answer to your question
@@placeholder2924 thanks
Insightful and unbiased analysis, as per usual Stuart. Keep up the good work
I remember last year when Lewis took the call to stay out when the team told him to come in, at the exact same track, and it worked beautifully. Sometimes, things just don't your way, it happens.
He was in the lead by 30 seconds.
The new set of tires took some time to go through the graining period before it was fast again. He should have pitted when they first called him.
the team should have pitted Lewis when he asked them to, before Perez. also, it was a further 9 laps until they called him in again, why did it take them so long to decide the tires would not last, Lewis not pitting is irrelevant as they could have told him at any stage after that they looked at the data and pitting was best and Lewis would have followed.
I am a motorsport loving Nerd. So I love the driving, the engineering, and the data analytics. I love it all!
It didn't dry enough for slicks that's all. They made the right call throughout.
If it dried enough for slicks it could have been a podium. So they had to wait. It was a gamble and they didn't lose much due to their damage control either.
Great video. I don’t agree with everything you say about F1, but I know your opinions come from a position of knowledge and careful thought, which deserves respect and acknowledgement especially as the signal to noise ratio plummets to near zero. (Amazing how much of your content comes from “I know a lot of people are saying X, but it’s not that simple.” doing your part keeping at least some signal out there :) ) Kudos.
Hamilton did himself in by not pitting when they told him to earlier. Similarly in Sochi he didn't want to pit and would've come 7th or so if he hasn't listened. Either listen to the team or don't. If you do that's a win and a 3rd. Don't and it's a 3rd and a 7th ish. Tired of all this "Lewis wins brilliantly,/the team fail him" media bs. Not saying that's your take CB. Just in general.
That said look what happened at Turkey LAST year. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Hindsight would tell you that pitting a couple of laps before the Red Bulls would have been the best way to go, but that depended on them pitting and if they did pit, when they pitted. It was one of those times when you're damned if you do, damned if you don't.
it's annoying to hear when Ham wins it's all his merit but when he loses it' all the team's fault. He decided to not listen to the team and stay out and he paid the consequences
@@alessandromarino1874 literally all i hear are people complaining about lewis' call. just look at the comment section here or on the f1 page
@@alessandromarino1874 But he came in the next lap!!! That one lap didn't cost him anything, except the possibility of finishing higher. Once he pitted his face was done, except for having to defend against Gasly. The evidence of the other pitstops was that there weren't enough laps remaining for the tyres to grain in so the choice was gambling that the tyres would last the race and with enough pace to keep him in 5th or higher.
What I'd have liked to hear in this video was what are the last lap times that Lewis and Perez (maybe also Gasly) were doing on the laps prior to the lap Lewis did his stop and the gaps, whilst projecting (with margins of errors) what was likely to happen in terms of Perez and Leclerc potentially catching and passing Lewis, and Gasly as well. I just think when Lewis said the types felt ok he should have been trusted to make the call and unless there was a bit dropoff or danger of tyre failure then it should have been his decision. Unless the team had some data that told them this was going to happen, which didn't seem to be shared with him if he then decided not to pit and he loses points because of it it's on his head.
All drivers make good calls and bad calls in races, but I just felt watching the race that when Mercedes called him in it was pointless, except to protect a 5th place and I don't think this was discussed with Lewis, unless we just didn't hear this (but the fact he was shocked when after the stop he was told he was in 5th he couldn't have been).
@@alessandromarino1874 he never said that but ok
love the decision tree analysis of the whole race vs just the pit stop. Great work.
Just wow! This is a wonderful explanation of the strategy-analytics
Thanks for continuing with the recent race analyses.
This is such a well done video. I loved the time interval graphic with the cars that was on the top of the screen
Perfect narration, script, visuals, perfect video. Amazing job.
Could you do a video on seamless sequential gearboxes? I know there isnt a lot of info out there, but i am curious what you know/find out.
As always, I loved the video =) Still, I was a bit confused when you showed time differences in purple because F1 uses purple to represent fastest laps as well. I don't know if you could have used some other color in your palette.
I agree, it was very interesting to see how the tyres worked at turkey, Danny Ric was within a second stroll in the last 10 laps before falling away to like 30 or 40 seconds and being passed by 2 cars after having some of the best pace throughout the middle of the race. In hindsight, the best strategy was pitting around the middle of the race to prevent any sort of major drop off like we saw with ocon, meaning the tyres were in the sweet spot for a major part of the race.
He should have stopped and put on slick soft tires, as he had asked.
Same for Leclerc btw.
Vettel's one-lap tip-toe experiment demonstrated why slicks were a bad idea 😆
I nearly skipped this video because the topic has been done to death by every pundit out there….but somehow you manage to bring fresh insight. Appreciate you always
This video is out together so well. Wow mate the quality has risen up so much. You certainly need more views on this and you are100% UNDERRATED.
The charts, the mind map possibilities thing, everything made the whole thing so effortlessly easy to understand, but when one steps back and sees, it has so much effort gone behind it. I don't know whether you have an editor or you yourself do this, but whoever did this video's visual is very talented...
Wow, the first time I'm not thinking of the video topic, but rather appalled by the video's production efforts.
You are undoubtedly the best F1 youtuber out there...
On the other hand, maybe try more educational videos on youtube. make a different channel unrelated to F1, but explaining something else altogether.
Not to mention time loss in the pit this race was less than dry race.
I love this video! I think I speak for everyone when I say we would love to see more of these “decision tree” videos!
I’ve been on Checko’s back all season for underperforming but he was the star this race for his duel with Lewis. Max and Red Bull owe him an attaboy.
Great break down Chain Bear. Spot on analysis. Well done.
I have a degree in mystery boxes from mystery box university. I don't get invited to many parties.
"Big congrats to Valtteri then".... YES!!!!! Why no one wants to talk abvout that?
The intermediates are kings of tyres: they can work in the wet, they can be a slick in the cold, they can last a whole race
12:42 is so true....and that's a tragedy
Always LOVE your analysis. THANKS!
Best F1 channel on TH-cam
It's easy to say afterwards. If it were that easy, races wouldn't go like they do.
Great analysis.. the best possible analysis in my humble opinion
At the end of the video, "great congrats to Valtteri tho", the first time he got mentioned lol
This is a great example of decision trees. Also a good, humourous explanation of Machine Learning!
weirdly throwing in the shows i'm currently watching... glad we have similar tastes stewart!
thanks for clarifying
If you want to know what could've happened, check the 2006 Hungarian GP. Schumi, who had a difficult race (started 11th, front wing damage, was a lap down at one point) found himself 2nd on used, worn inters on a drying track, while everyone else switched to drys. He was also in a close championship battle, with Alonso, who already retired, so it was a great chance to reduce his points deficit. He thought he could defend the position on the twisty track, but the others were multiple seconds faster on slicks. The result? He banged wheels with Heidfeld, damaged his suspension and finished 8th. If he had pitted, he could've been 5th at least.
Great analysis Chain Bear. It could have been a Räikkönen at the Nürburgring situation. Losing all the points on the last lap in heartbreak. We’ll never know for sure 🤷
Pirelli said he wouldn't have made it to the end he was almost out of rubber.
Another great Video ty for the deep analysis
Also to consider- if the misting rain intensified even slightly towards the end of the race, worn inters would’ve been horrible.
Alonso pitted first? Thought that the entire F1 crew were hawkishly staring down Ricciardo to see where the Inters were going before informing other drivers
correct, lap 21
You beat me to it! Was just about to point this out too
But he pitted really early, he didn't use the tyres to full extent... lap 25-30 was the projected slick transition, Alonso basically started the chain of pits is what he meant in the vid, Ric induced the chain...
Those parallax photos looked pretty cool!
Amazingly intuitive visualization!
I agree about how data analysis ruins strategy, but there's not really a way to feasibly get rid of it any more. Anyone could run a simulation off-site and send tactics to the team
I really enjoyed this video, you're great
Merc's strategy is almost always right. Except this year's French GP. That is not the best strategy, just a decent and conservative one.
It's always hard when you have data vs intuition. Data is accurate and never "wrong", but sometimes we're mising some data and of course, garbage in garbage out. Intuition can be wrong, but takes in some data we can't measure/encode.
I say by default trust engineers but once you've decided to overule it, continue to do so. It's hamilton's race to call after his first refusal to pit
do you do data analysis work? as someone that's studying it I've learned exactly what you said.
@@josephr7529 Exactly lol. Turns out the hardest thing to autonomate is knowing what questions to ask. The answer is what the computers can get us
Well put. Some insightful comments here
Man excellent video, I'm actually understanding the situation
Another video on the subject? Well, probably the best so far!
So much clarity of analysis...I wish there were a Chain Bear video on the global shipping collapse
Perfect video! Really shows how important Perez's defence of Hamilton was. Red Bull must be increasingly happy with that signing.
Great work as always. I don't understand why there's talk about Lewis "losing places" or "wrecking his race", though. He was fifth when the pitstops started, he finished fifth. He did not lose a position or wreck his race. The only thing he lost, by not pitting at the same time as Perez, is another crack at Checo on new tyres and most likely overtaking Leclerc who suffered even more than Lewis from his gamble for the win.
It was somewhat clear that he couldn't drive to the end with that set of tyres. He was pushing for positions and got stuck behind cars so that alone means he has worse tyres compared to others. Also the track conditions made a later inters change more risky. It's a drying track and it was nearly at the crossover point. That means the best tyres are the ones you have on. For fresh slicks it was to early. Would the rain be the other way around, meaning it was a dry track and it got wetter, new inters would be bad too. So a change would mean the driver looses a lot more, because he need to drive in the new tyres. Also fruther into the race, the track conditions can get better.
Lewis pitted too late but at that point, it was the best he could do. It was a poor race for him, because to much risk was taken in hindsight and he lost the gamble. Lets not forget what could have been possible. The track was able to dry up a bit more and pushing the slicks into the better window. Also in rain, mistakes are likely and a safety car was possible. For example with Vettel. He was a candidate to cause an accident for the one lap, he was on slicks and it looked like so.
These decisions he and his team made looked stupid on screen but maybe they would have been heros, when the condition turned a bit into their favor. The viewers can only see the TV screen and not into minds.
Great analysis, thanks.
Seeing a clip from Ted Lasso was the last thing I expected here but I really appreciate it
Yes agreed, it didn't all come down to the pit stop. It was down to not stopping earlier with Perez. Easier to see now with the benefit of hindsight
Yeah, Ocon didn't stop and fit new rubber, but people seem to ignore the fact that towards the end he was also FOUR SECONDS off the pace...
And looking at the picture that flashed up here, it's only by luck that he didn't get a blowout, which was why Pirelli was telling Mercedes to pull Hamilton in to prevent a tyre failure and that was from looking at the tyres from the first round of pit stops
Great content. Very professional and so well put together!
Hamilton second guessing Merc cost him a position or two. But I put it a bit more on Merc for not pushing the point harder the need to pit. He listens when they are firm.
But then I also understand them trying to hang it out for a dry track. It was a gamble and just didn’t work out their way.
I remember people on twitter babbling on about how Hamilton should've stayed out 🤣 ocon was proof in the pudding where it was the wrong call. He lost 50 seconds to sainz in 14 laps. And the fact that ocon only did that was because he was not in the points and he decided to gamble. Hamilton being a 7x wc not trusting his team is what will be his downfall this season. Also Hamilton pushed so many laps on the tyre still adamant to stay out. He witness what happens when you aren't on the right tyres on the right time in the form of timo Glock even.
remember he didnt trust his team last season on the same track and won. He instructed them not to pit him on lap 34 and turned out to be the right call. its all a gamble
@@TheTororist 9 times out of 10 the team will be right, also last year he could do whatever he wanted and there would be no severe consequences, this year, everyone in Mercedes is working their butts off to beat red bull. Even though I wanna see Hamilton's dominance ended, it wouldn't be a good way to see him go down not trusting his team on strategy. The *team* is in charge of the strategy, he's in charge of driving the car as well as possible
@@bacunnnn personally I think even when he overules a call and the strat team let him, ultimately it's still a team decision. He is part of the team as well. Same as when he listens to the team
well, Merc have cost him wins at France, Dutch GP and Hungary by making wrong strategic calls so im guessing Lewis isn't full of confidence in them this year. Lewis did tell them he needed the undercut on Perez and they failed to do that. the right call was to at least pit right after Perez at that point. fact is, merc where not sure what strategy to go on, hence why they waited a further 9 laps before pitting Lewis. why did they wait so long?
@@ddha0000 but the team won him the race in Spain for example. Also, Hungary was probably Hamilton's own fault, because if the rules are the same in the formation lap after a red flag as in the "normal" formation lap before the race start, the team wasnt even allowed to call him into the pits, as seen with Magnussen last year at the same track, where the team did just that and got penalized.
But after all, strategies sometimes work out, sometimes they dont. But thats also one thing that makes racing interesting.
This is basically like a "choose your own adventure" but all road lead to doom.
Awesome work !
Again, perfect content!
i make computer models, and that explanation was really good. we call it a “black box”, where inputs go in and something comes out. i dk if they actually model physics, or if they just use past results and measurements to predict what can happen given a set of conditions. either way its far from foolproof, so the people using the models need to have a good understanding of its limitations and when/how it can be wrong.
Yup! Totally agree! Finally someone talks about Ocons pase on the last laps. Perez, Charles, and Pier would have caught Lewis if those tyres did last! The team should have given him an order and not an opinion!
5:50. “Alonso was first to blink” actually Ricciardo either came In before him or at the same time
I think had Mercedes given a bit more context to Lewis he MAY have agreed to pit the first time around. But hindsight is 20/20 and I remember even the commentators questioning Mercedes' request to pit!
I freaking love your content.
Both u and tifo football have the calmest voices I've ever heard in my entire life
🤣🤣🤣 that's how everyone's been with Valtteri last weekend..."Big thanks to Valtteri though" and that's about all is said about his phenomenal drive.
I mean...
Love your videos ❤️🔥
in the decision tree 'pit' and 'not pit' should have been respectively always in the same position, whether up or down. It would make a clearer visual image and it would make more sense
I think Perez being 6th in the power rankings is a joke and I think this video proves why, he compromised Hamilton strategy so much that potentially he made him lose 5 points to Verstappen which at the end might make him win or not the championship, this season is amazing.
Though if not pitted, that last 3 laps of tire data would have been an hot intellectual property. Given that, from my perspective, no pit was a win-win.
Pitting became like lose for sure and not even ponder the 'what if'.
Tbh I wish the data analysis information and weather was harder for teams to understand what's gonna happen before and during the race to keep them on there toes and nothing is a set in stone strategy
You lost me at “would the rubber have lasted?”. Thinking back on a few things in life…..
All of this was caused by Perez, he really did do a great job for Red Bull and Max by completely stopping Hamilton's recovery from 11th.
9:39 this is the point I take issue with. Lewis is not managing the old tyres. He's just overconfident. The tyres are gone, but the fact they've tuned that Mercedes up to look like they're racing in 2017 again meant that he thought it didn't matter. Slower through a corner? Who cares, you make up the difference in pure acceleration anyway. He was headed towards a wreck. He acknowledged the car was sliding around on lap 50. Cars go from loose to in the wall in a single lap. A loose car now is a crashed car next lap. Even a few drops of rain on T1 was a guarantee spin at best. Ocon managed his tyres to the end yes, but he did 1 less lap and he did so with alot less pace then Hamilton. Hamilton's car was faster, meaning it was putting the tyres through more stress. Ocon also didn't really battle for the entire race. Hamilton had battled Yuki and Perez and had to make passes on a bunch of other drivers. If he stays out, he's got a very good chance of spinning atleast, worst case scenario is a DNF that basically ends the season, and potentially, engine damage that means the penalty that put him in this position was for nothing. Imagine being Mercedes. You're looking at Hamilton and going "he's going to destroy that brand new engine we just took 10 grid positions for"
Skip to 4:00 to avoid the rambling
I actually think that had lewis put on dry tyres when he did finally pit he would have been able to blitz the field. The track was significantly drier by that point compared to when Seb sent for the dry tyres. By the time Lewis pitted there was a dry line, though drifting off it would have been bad.
Great video 🖖
Thank you so much for the analysis! Hamilton wouldn't need to worry about graining near the end of the race if he listened to Bono at first place. He could push the new tires much earlier.
Amazing job!!!
Data analysis is important, but to know when to use the computer and when to use your gut, your feeling, your driver's feeling about the car, is more important.
Every race and every championship is forgotten quickly, so dont sweat it. All that anyone remembers is the last race, for about three days or so.
Hamilton's initial choice to stay out was due to him thinking that the track would eventually dry enough for slicks, and that he could hold on with his original inters until then. He wasn't, at that point, trying to run all the way to the end on those tyres. If a dry line had emerged, say, 5 laps later, staying out would have been a masterstroke because he wasn't really losing time to the people who had pitted, and would have saved himself a pitstop. Evidentially, the team thought that it was possible, otherwise they could have overridden him and ordered him to box, as they did eventually.
This season is emotional and not a lot of people are using their brains cause of it. This was quite clearly not Lewis vs his team. They were all looking for that magical dry line and what really screwed Mercedes was that it didn't show up. From how they basically skipped P3 they were obviously looking forward to dry race so they screwed up even before the race really started. But that is how taking risks works, you win some, you lose some. In fact when it comes to risk you almost always lose.