Why This Recession is Going to Be VERY Different!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 มิ.ย. 2022
- Why This Recession is Going to Be VERY Different!
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Recessions are where millionaires are created. I feel for the older generation, but if you are young or middle age, you should do everything possible to double and triple your investments.
I'm giddy watching the maket tank as I buy as much stoc'k as possible across my port-folio. The key is keep buyng, don't let the naysayers change your mind.
@wind, going well for you so far? I’m certain you have someone guiding you or you’re a guru in the maket yourself.
Definitely! I've been able to scale from $350K to $550K since April because ''Frances Annette Batista'' my FA figured out Defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and profit from this roller coaster market.
that's heavy! keep it up, I could really use the expertise of your advisrs, my portfolio has been down bad....
I would never take advses online but i curiously looked this person up and reached out to her for assistance. she seems proficient and experienced.
I definitely prefer the calm, rational discussion addressing viewers’ concerns of a recession rather than getting laughed/screamed at by Dave Ramsey
haha this comment should be pinned
His arrogance gets to me. I stopped watching him. It was nice that he got more younger people involved bc I doubt ppl want to feel like they called just to get screamed at like he’s their father.
Cant stand his arrogance. What does God say about being prideful? It’ll be their downfall.
Your channel keeps getting better and better! Keep up the great work Money Guy Show
My husband is very much an emotional investor, while I’m totally “the markets are down! Time to use coupons and sell stuff so we can invest more!” To help him see the bigger picture, I give him a net worth graph from the time we started investing to now. Seeing the comparably small sips helps him not feel as anxious.
Nice content, Recessions don’t last forever. Even the Great Depression ended eventually. Truly high quality businesses will outlast recessions. Some will even grow during recessions.
It all depends on when you need the money.
If you’re less that 5 years for retirement- be very careful.
If you’re 10-20-30 years out, just pay attention and buy at support or 50/200 day moving average.
Hello , thank you Romero for last week payout....I have no reason to doubt you strategy!!!
Yes I'm a living testimony of Romero pieto his platform has also done a great thing for me.
Good good content.
The Japan stock market Nikkei has not recovered since 1989 all time high. Don't think recessions don't last forever.
These “be prepared and stay the course” videos are helpful. Positive reinforcement. Thank you.
I dont worry too much on a coming recession/depression anymore. Have been living frugally all these years and whatever comes wont change much our lifestyle.
This
This is some high level humble bragging. Jokes aside good for you. This is the way.
Hmm, so many have tried this throughout history, with some success. But mostly disaster, the result is people who own a lot and have a war or commodity based income end up with everything.
No one is an island.
Your video hit at just the right time! I got my statement from TSP and see the huge loss to my account. I am a bit nervous because I'm now 60 and want to retire in the next 3 to 5 years. Your example of concentration is helpful - hopefully this recession will be short and we'll have a good recovery. Thanks
I haven't looked at my TSP this entire year. I'm sure it's gotten as ugly as my stocks are. 😤
You Guys will be fine.. You should be used to how the Gov't operates by now. Do any of "Us" really think anyone at the Feds knows what's happening on Main St. USA? These People eat per diem meals and stay at 5 Star Hotels on the Taxpayer's Dime.
Staying at a Marriott's Residence Inn and making their own Waffles in the Morning would be akin to sleeping in a cardboard box on Skid Row to them. "Be Fearful when others are Greedy.. Be Greedy when others are Fearful"--Warren Buffett (Disclaimer: I'm just a commenter on TH-cam, nothing I say should be taken as Financial and/or Investment Advice)
TSP? You're 60 yo and are/were military and still can't retire? You did something wrong mate..
@@Re3iRtH he never said “can’t”. Maybe he’s hanging around as he likes it
I'm with you, TSP down in 60s didn't have respectable representation like the money guys or youtube available like young people do now.. don't be hard on yourself, just as the money guys say...stay the course, it's never to late.
I can say this about the automotive industry at the moment, vehicle prices aren't coming down anytime soon. Incentives to dealers are coming down and OEMs prices for new vehicles are going up. Supply/demand and with fewer vehicles to sell they have to squeeze out every inch of profit they can.
I love the Money Guy Show and have learned a lot, and very grateful for their detailed information. I have been investing fully for 31 years, but long before this show came along, I’ve followed to Warren Buffett’s famous maxim “be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy”. Even when I lost my job in March 2009, we had enough resources to make house payments, take vacations and for me to return to grad school full time. Essentially, economic turmoil does provide huge financial opportunities if one has the assets in place and keep a longer view.
People are definitely not cutting back on spending like we are in a recession where I live at all.. still over paying big time for houses and going out every weekend
Brian and Bo talking the sense as always 🙏🏼
Thank you for those visuals! They really do a great job of illustrating and reinforcing your point! Great video!👍🏾👏🏾👏🏾😊
Your videos are always the best💯 I do receive a notification each time you post a new video.. We'll have regrets for things we did not participate in...Investment should always be on any creative man's heart for success in life.
With inflation running at a four-decade high, Recession is now the ‘most likely’ outcome for the economy and i cannot imagine being a victim of circumstances. My portfolio suffered a big hit, holding it further won’t be any good. I've heard of people netting hundreds of thousands this red season. How can i ensure this?
I'm giddy watching the maket tank as I buy as much stoc'k as possible across my port-folio. The key is keep buyng, don't let the naysayers change your mind.
@@codeblue11 going well for you so far? I’m certain you have someone guiding you or you’re a guru in the maket yourself.
Definitely! I've been able to scale from $350K to $550K since April because ''Frances Annette Batista'' my FA figured out Defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and profit from this roller coaster market.
I would never take advses online but i curiously looked this person up and reached out to her for assistance. she seems proficient and experienced.
Just discovered you guys today! Love it. Subscribing!
Weird to think we are in a recession.
Went on a two week vacation and it was insane. We couldn’t believe how many vacationers where we were staying. They were booked to the max at both luxury hotels we stayed at. 😂
One of the best videos! Thank you
Insightful Analysis Hodder. I think the market will recover quicker than expected. The stock market behaves the way it does, because there will always be people who: - sell at highs bringing it down - panic sell due to it dropping, bringing it lower - buy at the lows, bringing it back up - buy back in while it's rising
Needed to hear this today!
🤣 LOVED THAT part of the UP @ DOWN YOYO
16:32 RV could be a luxury item that declines in a recession, or a place to live when you can’t afford rent that booms in a recession
Many investors/traders advice - that at the start of the bear market, you should sell and buy later on. My question - How do they know at the beginning of the correction - whether stocks would fall by 5%, 10%, 20%, 30% or more?
Stock market is the only place where people
leave when there's massive discount sale
happening.
Two most important parameter to
analyse while investing in a bear Mark is - 1
The business you're planning to
invest is Fundamentally Strong i.e.,
Having Competitive Advantage or not !
2. Even after 10% 20% 30% down from
ATH, is the *Valuation" correct or not.
To manage investment risk consider
maintaining a broad diversification of your
investments that reflects your personal risk
tolerance, time horizon, and the nature of
your financial goal. Remember,
iversification is an approach to help
manage investment risk. It does not
eliminate the risk of loss if security prices
decline Because investing can be
complicated. Consider working with a
Financial Advisor to help guide you on your
wealth-building journey if you're just starting
out.
@@casinosimsek2027 Your assertion that as we age we
become more risk averse rings so much true
to me. Can you recommend any fiduciary
Financial Advisor?
@@alexmontrey5372 “Paul gustave schoffelen“does a good job. He
is quite the genius in portfolio
iversification. You can look him up on the
internet as he is SEC regulated.
This was an excellent conversation. Happy to subscribe
Thank you guys for the reassurance, direction! It can be tough for a young investor.
I agree 100% I am all in on my contributions at this point not sure where we are at on the V or U shape drop. With the market being down 20% I like the idea of buying on the way down to the bottom and back up again. You gain on both sides of the V or U shape decline and recovery by dollar cost averaging you get to win on both sides as well as the bottom.
Love the 6am upload!
I am 65. I’ve lived through many recessions. All I can say is, at the front end every recession feels like it’s going to be different. But they never are. The wahoo hits the fan, and then things get better. No doubt the same will happen this time.
You sound very confident- you must be a lifelong govt hack with Zero chance of losing one red cent in the shitstorm asteroid strike about to slam the economy.
Very good video.
Just want to say I really enjoy the videos you guys post here. I am new to investing outside of my 401K and you guys provide sound advice. Very concrete and straight to the point. Also, you guys keep my anxiety down because your advice is just good.
Hi Leon, if you are new to investing maybe Warren Buffett sounds familiar to you. He is the best investor of all times who has 5 simple rules to build wealth over time. I just uploaded a video and I'm sure you'll like it. Enjoy watching!
@@avenue2revenue thanks! Will definitely watch.
@@leonh2589 Awesome! I really hope you like it and it will help you getting the basics right. Applying these rules will make you become a more relaxed investor and avoid taking massive mistakes. All the best on your financial journey!
I guess Yellen will have to come out to say she was wrong about that statement like she was with transient inflation
It's going to be interesting to have a recession caused by inflation where jobs are plentiful. I, for one, am going to be dumping cash into the market all the way through it. My salary may be worth less now buying food for the family or having work done on the home, but it IS worth more in terms of investments, so I'll take advantage of the disparity to try and get more oomph out of my comp.
More oomph out of what? Your home ?
@@Jay-ql3gu salary. If, say, half you income goes to normal stuff at the same price, and half goes to investments, then a 20% drop in the market is the same as getting a 10% raise.
Dont be stupid dude... wages wont go up as much as prices will.. also means stocks will not go up much more then they have now either.. people will hold money not stocks.. save your money dont buy stocks
@@Zorlig That's not how percentages work, it would be like getting a 12,5% raise (half of 25%). When the price of something goes to 80, but you can spend 100, you can buy 125% of that thing.
@@Delalcon I know that, getting the math correct wasn't the point of the response.
One of the things I see as a high risk is thinking markets must recover. Shanghai and Tokyo haven't recovered and it's been 20 and 30 years. Commodities can go decades without recovery. Lost decades happen. Tulips never recovered.
e.g. Small caps indices at the same price as 4 years ago, bitcoin is at the same price it was 5 years ago and gold is at the same exact price it was at in 2011.
Dudes, so glad I stumbled on to this channel
Great video everyone.
Greetings from Lithuania 🇱🇹
I wonder how good the economy will be going forward, as food and housing costs take up more and more of people's incomes. The incomes don't go up as quickly as the food/energy/housing. People are going to be cutting non-essential spending as living expenses eats more of their paychecks.
I ran most of the tickers of the offerings on my 401k, I put money in 8 different ones that all showed an overall incline LT. Yes, there are many that are down now, but I’m getting in lower and will be in for at least 12-15 years more, so I’m putting over 80% of my FT job and living off my PT job. For now, if I lose a bit, it’s temporary AND my employer match helps offset any losses. Time to buy!
If you look at the number of shares you have vs the shear dollar amount while you contribute to your accounts you will be in a better place.
Seems like we are just getting into this thing. Haven't been hit with the food and fertilizer shortages that are coming.
Great content. Long term investing! I personally really like the passive income potential of dividend growth stocks.
People just need to Stay the course, or even better buy while prices are down!
Did you know the japan "DOW" has never recovered from their 1989 downturn?
Only if a good amount of folks do what you guys teach, just imagine how many millionaires we already have or will have in the future. Not the sad statistics where at least 50% of people are living paycheck to paycheck, even for high income earners. Great contents as always!
Sad thing is the very word millionaire itself may lose its meaning because inflation.
Paycheck to paycheck stimulates the economy more, if everyone saved then jobs would be lost... its not good
I agree but on the flip side imagine how much the economy would slow down if we started collectively saving money
As money flows from the impatient to the patient, it creates larger returns for those who stick with it. If everyone diversified and didn't panic sell, there would be less volatility.
@@evansutton6760 wrong, go look up the factors.. and why the market is still going to go down
I increased my investing a few months ago to buy “discounted” market share during this time. It’s painful, especially given inflation. But it’s the only almost guaranteed way for us jobbers to lock in comfortable financial freedom some day.
Bad move. Stocks down into mid July, then bounce into Sept 22 then LOOK OUT BELOW
@@scottfabyanic3546 you seem to know where this bottoms out. I seem to not believe that you actually know and are just speculating, hoping to get lucky.
@@eedre4864 You should believe him, he’s a billionaire with a crystal ball.
@@eedre4864 Stick to the course. You're 100% right to DCA into the discount. This too shall pass
@@jordandowland7256 haha, right… I should also totally reach out to some rando who claims to have made 20% in the last quarter with this one weird trick. Seems to be a common contributor in these threads.
It’s a little hilarious listening to the folks who say either we won’t have a recession or that it will be mild. Economics is based on math, not feelings or hope. Every dollar that’s being absorbed by higher food, energy or housing costs is a dollar not being spent on other stuff. The dramatic drop in spending on other stuff will cause a deep and long lasting recession. It’s just math.
Whether it’s mild or not depends how long our current state lasts. The speed with which inflation comes back down will determine the length (& depth) of any recession. Another factor is the extent to which China gets fully back to work; that could provide some juice to a recovery. The math extends over a wide range of parameters that can result in a sufficiently wide range of outcomes that we can truly say no one knows. It is possible we reach the bottom in 6 months or 2 years…not hilarious
@@chemquests I have full confidence in Senator Biden to lead us to economic ..... What was the topic?
@@waterheaterservices funny, presidents are largely irrelevant to this process and tend to get too much credit/blame…that’s been true across parties and time
*Don’t just save all your money in the bank as they tax you so much keeping it. It’s better to invest your money for future expenses. Everyone needs to create a passive income stream to stay debt free and live comfortably*
If any retail investor is trying to sell now and buy later at cheap price, they have higher chances of loosing. Just buy and buy more as market falls.
With at least 2 more interest rate hikes confirmed, best to keep contributing and hold in money market fund. At the earliest, go into other fund after Sept. 22 rate hike and you will still be ahead of the S&P.
Ya but the market isn’t rational. That’s what everyone seems to think but it’s not going to be quite that easy. All things considered Covid changes a lot of things. This recession is likely going well into 2023.
@@joeltroughton3021 This recession will go into 2025.
@Mike Jennings That will be mid 2024 I think. I'm 100% cash, besides my RE holdings.
We are in deep doo-doo. We could be heading to deflation as the Feds remove liquidity from the economy next year. With the huge bubble that they have created, will burst later this year. Even a depression is not out of the question starting next year.
Definitely not selling and continuing to DCA a little bit heavier during this time. Been in the market since late 2000s. However, if you have to possibly look at money moves such as an IRA - > Roth conversions it's a great opportunity while the market is down.
I live at a lake. Boats here for sale on the side of the road.
In this environment, he who loses least wins.
The debt to GDP jumped 20% in 2019. The M1 money supply QUADRUPLED from March 2020 to June 2020. Want to see a really dramatic graph? Look up the graph of the M1 money supply going back 70 years.
It is very scary to see 1/3 of your 401k go down the drain. I am trying to be optimistic but when you see the state of the global market I do not see how we will recover within the next decade.
I have a question about the cash vs assets graph you shared. My question is that if that graph is cash compared to total assets wouldn't it naturally shift to cash in the event of a downturn? For example. If I have 500 dollars in cash and 500 dollars invested in the S&P 500 i would have a total of 1000 dollars. If the S&P suddenly lost 40% of its value I would have 500 dollars of cash and 300 dollars of S&P 500. This would cause my percentage of cash vs assets to skyrocket from 50% to 62.5%. Please correct me if I am wrong though. I would be happy to learn. Thanks for the great discussion though!
It isn't the percentage of cash vs total assets, it is amount of money invested. So, the top portion of the graph shows there is an influx of money at the times right before the market crashes and the bottom portion shows that cash reserves go up after the market crash but dip by the next peak. The chart would be completely different if it was cash vs total assets, as you described it would be as you described.
Love your show. Even as someone who has been in the market for a decade, I underestimated my lack of psychological preparation for this sort of thing. I'm used to it mostly going up and didn't anticipate the slow malaise of having my investments go down for months at a time. I haven't sold or anything, but all of this seemed like talk to me until this year.
I hear ya. You and I both haven’t really experienced the pain of a real downturn yet as I’m also only about 10 years in the market. Let’s both agree to stay the course, to not sell and just keep buying. It could get real here soon. Or it could be at the bottom. Who knows?
@@davidglosser5542 Im a few years in the market only and everything is down for me right now but my investments have always been from my disposable income so im not really in a rough place yet.
I just have trust and faith that the markets will pick up or I guess I will just have to start over with something else maybe
@@FrontlineSuicide yes, the market overall will definitely go back up, it’s only a matter of when. Now, individual stocks on the other hand, are not guaranteed to go up as they can each individually go out of business and you can lose your money permanently. But if you invested in a diversified group of stocks such as the vanguard total stock market index or vanguard 500 or a target retirement date fund, the likelihood of you losing all your money is practically zero.
@@davidglosser5542 Staying the course for sure. When I feel the malaise, I just go on a bike ride or cook a good meal. Cheers me up right quick.
Love your content, but the red numbers on your chart with the blue background are very difficult to read.
Am so grateful for finding your channel earlier this year, before the financial/economic situation of the moment. Has helped me gain a more long term, broader and somewhat removed perspective that is not guided by fear and panic. Instead, you helped identify the long term goals and frugal behaviors that I need to work on personally regardless of the societal situation I find myself in and have no control over. Thank you for these videos and for all the information you guys share freely. Have a great day.
Definitely don’t panic. I think 80 percent of problems and issues are how we interpret them. If you are female, you are usually higher in personality trait neuroticism, and more heightened towards stress and anxiety. Check out Dr Peterson’s personally 2017 lectures. They will change your life.
Financially, my wife and I are middle class, have our first home now with a mortgage, got it right before the interest rates went up, thank God. I try to keep her calm, as she gets upset and has anxiety sometimes towards things that come at us. My dad always taught me to be careful with spending and stay out of debt. Good advice for most people. However, I never took an economics class or learned about investing and risking money on potential positive cash flow. I am learning all I can. I am probably going to contact a reputable investment group to see what I can do. Do you have any advice as to hedge against inflation for the middle class? If you had an extra 500 dollars per month to spend. How would you invest it? Curious your thoughts. Thank you!!
In my opinion if the market goes down 50% from the all-time high go all in
DCA into a 500 index and ignore it. When the market tanks, put as much in as you can afford. Try to look at downturns as a fire sale in shares instead of focusing on your portfolio value… losses are only realized if you sell. In every single downturn, if you stayed the course and bought at a value price, your efforts were rewarded.
They’ve run out of ways to prop it all up.
Hold on tight.
Those graphs that compare bull market vs bare market don't show relative decrease on the down side. 40% decrease takes away 200% of a 500% bull market. The down part of the graph the scale is off. I get that the point of the graph is to make you feel better but it's really not a fair representation.
Its hard to say since I eat out a lot and theres alot of activity going on so its hard to believe there is a recession.
Eating out costs same as cooking these days.
@@networth00 Seriously! Groceries are so expensive now.
Yall have good visuals for sure well done guys!
We live in a world where Cardi B is more economically astute than Janet Yellen.
Yellen knows but doesn't want to panic everyone.
Just DAm! But you are 100% right!.
THIS CURRENT DIP IS A HUGE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY THE DIP AND ALSO HIGHER VOLATILITY TO YIELD MORE PROFIT FOR DAY TRADERS.
Making money is the plan and with Bitcoin your plans can be accomplish,
I really appreciate Mr Sam Justin influence during this global pandemic lock down,
I started with 7000usd then increased to 13000usd after receiving my profit.
You are absolutely right,
my first inv... with Sam Justin gave me profits of over $44,000 US dollar,
I remain in accumulation mode and am bumping up my buying during this ongoing blue light special (RIP Kmart).
We still have a long way to drop. You haven't seen blue light specials yet.
@@networth00 that would be welcome.
The prediction by The Teacher Maitreya many years ago was that there will be another very major stock market crash which will affect the Western world more than the 2008 crash did. He said that before this coming crash there will be extreme highs and lows in the stock markets.
Try to catch the falling knife you say because it's cheap now (around time ~15:00)? How about consistency over intensity?
You guys focus a lot more on investing than Dave Ramsey. I appreciate that.
Can we make a shirt:
"I'm excited to talk about this show..." Bo Hanson
Is it possible that the recession hits some markets and some not?
What's ignored is that inflation can arise from two factors, namely: 1. increase of money supply. 2. Decrease of goods and services supply. Biden needs to start addressing #2. By eliminating tariffs and taking a hard look at regulations and competition.
Every week 20% comes out pretax plus 5.5% from employer and around $150 taken out of my net and placed in my roth ira
Nice segment. Thank yoy
Is the money guy logo on the wall ripped off from the Chevrolet emblem? hahaha
Inflation math is fun. Due to ratcheting tax brackets, the more you make, the higher your raises need to be just to keep up with inflation...
Haha these guys are behind the curve sold my RV last June. That was the time to sell
It's important to make the distinction between what pop culture is talking about versus what pop culture is thinking about. Just because they're talking doesn't mean they're thinking 🤗
These shows are good for a laugh at what people will listen too.
"Sooner or later the starks are always right WINTER IS COMING" it's the same for recessions
There is a 40 week cycle exerting upward pressure, but not end of bear
The Japan stock market (Nikkei) still has not recovered since 1989 all time high. Keep that in mind.
I AM prepared! I live in the NOW!
This seems like a currency reset. You guys mentioned the 70s well thats when we seperated the dollar from real money (gold) I belive we are going back. So im putting money in physical gold and silver
I agree
why would used vehicle prices come down when there are no new cars to be had and people are losing their jobs?
You and Jazz financial are nice to listen to.
Coors light?
Cardi B’s record sales must have slowed down or she wants to know when lambos will go on sale.
😂😂
What would you suggest for a disabled couple in their early fifties, and stuck on a fixed, low income???
I was looking to buy a car a month ago and rushed into a bad car. Definitely, should have just waited for things to settle down. Thanks for all the advice!
I’m having to return my car next year…looking for remote work so I don’t have to buy a new one just to doordash or commute to a new job 😂 cars are too expensive nowdays
if this isn't a different bear market nothing will be
I sure hope the market recovers in the next 30 years. If it doesn't, the world probably looks like Mad Max and retirement is not a concern anyways.
It looks like stagflation to me.
One problem is they are not measuring unemployment correctly. There are so many men who have given up and stopped looking for work. As a result the unemployment rate, which only measures people who are looking for work, is not realistic. A better measure is the labor force participation rate, which is way down and dropping for men.
The day I stop watching is the day Bo is no longer excited for a segment
Antidote=/= Anecdote
We have been in a recession for 3-5 months already.
Recession means people lost their job. Yet jobs have been added since end of June 2022. Recession might be starting now because the first layoffs are starting now.
I wish they would have researched the car market a little more. Inside of LV, cars are being reclaimed by banks left and right and lots of bank owned cars filling up to point some towing companies are expanding there car lots. Individuals were given loans based on the short term income they got from the stemi checks and it wasn't checked against there income over a few years which sounds super odd to me but it happened. Now, people can't afford it, dealerships can't afford some of the cars they have in stock and have to resell them places like Coparts and auctions to recop there cost, and hopefully this will push prices down. How really knows though lol, I orginally came on here to see if the thing was happening in the non-bank mortage lending market. If anyone knows about it, pls lmk I'm pretty curious
where can i find a financial lawayer
I am all in, if it doesn't recover everyone is screwed. I am not going to try to time the market, just put in anything leftover from my paycheck each month. I think I am down about 26%. This would probably be a lot rougher if I was close to retirement.
I will continue to Dollar Cost Average into the market, and the lower the market goes, the more aggressive I will get. "Come get some!"
I'm doing the same $500 a month what I can afford.
The beauty of dollar cost averaging is that if you can manage to cut down expenses to only essentials during said downturns, you'll effectively give yourself a pay raise in future by investing the left-over with DCA method.
For anyone who is close to retirement, though, advice is simple and brutal. Take care of your health, and prepare to work a bit longer than planned. Only retire ( if by own volition that is ) when the market net value of assets reach pre-recession level.
@@jeromecarlosn8699 $2000 a month Drip feeding.
Keep putting money in, but it could go down another 2 years or so. Good luck.