(EViews10)Interpret VAR, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 พ.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 89

  • @CrunchEconometrix
    @CrunchEconometrix  6 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    TH-cam recently changed the way my content will be monetised. My channel now needs 1,000 subscribers. So it would be amazing if you show your support by both watching my videos and subscribing to my channel if you haven’t done so already. Monetising my videos allows me to invest back into the channel with some new equipment so this small gesture from you will be extremely huge for me. Many thanks for your support….CrunchEconometrix loves to teach, help me stay online.

  • @achudakhinkudachin2048
    @achudakhinkudachin2048 10 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    That was very helpful how you interrelated the coefficients to fevds in the var model, other teachers don't do that. It is a great video!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thanks for your encouraging feedback, deeply appreciated! 🙏🥰

  • @Econotitans
    @Econotitans 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    your work is commendable. u explain the way a student really want to be explained

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks Zunerah, for the encouraging feedback. Deeply appreciated! 🙏☺️

  • @Kotletka131
    @Kotletka131 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    I'm now writing an essay for an econometrics course, and your videos rescued me a lot! Box-Jenkins videos were the most understandable among all I've seen, and VAR ones are also great. Thank you very much!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks for the encouraging feedback, Kot. Deeply appreciated! Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @Kotletka131
      @Kotletka131 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@CrunchEconometrix from Russia 😄

  • @marnix122
    @marnix122 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Your tutorials are super helpful madam, thank you so much for all your hard work and explanation!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks Mamix, for the encouraging feedback! Deeply appreciated! May God bless you, amen 🙏

  • @kanya1998
    @kanya1998 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Dear Ngozi, You are doing a great job, i like the way you put your explanations, easy to understand, you are a great my great tutor! i do have one suggestion though, could you please number your tutorials? sometimes it is not easy to tell whether there is a previous tutorial or next. Once again, keep up the good work, spread the knowledge!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Anthony, thanks for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated! 💕 Yes, I number my videos and I always mention the prerequisite videos to watch in all my presentations. Kindly share my Channel link with your students and academic networks. May I know where you are reaching me from?

  • @antonkajor1218
    @antonkajor1218 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    amazing job.... I learn alot from your tutorial.. God bless you

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Anton, thanks for the kind words and positive feedback. Deeply appreciated! Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @antonkajor1218
      @antonkajor1218 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix I'm from yogyakarta Indonesia. I'm waiting for your next videos :))

  • @daiane_2310
    @daiane_2310 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Always amazing videos! God bless you!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks for the kind words, Daiane... deeply appreciated! ❤️

  • @saada.izeddin7712
    @saada.izeddin7712 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Hello CrunchEconometrix team, thank you for the great efforts. My question is about the S.E. column, how to interpret it and its role in the model?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Saad, I restrict myself to the relevant areas of FEVD. You may want to check out other online resources on the SE column. Thanks

  • @bazezewchekol6458
    @bazezewchekol6458 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you very much and wish long live

  • @florencesitima2697
    @florencesitima2697 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    You are doing an immense job,keep it up.But iwould like to hear much on step by step procedure in performing bivariate VAR model.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Florence, thanks for the encouraging remark. Deeply appreciated! Procedure for a bivariate VAR is the same as in any multivariate VAR. May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @abusuhayb6791
    @abusuhayb6791 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks for your generosity for providing such useful tutorial, if I understand you well, is this what you mean The T-stat LNRGDP(-1) showed highly significant 7.68 which means a 0.99% increase on LNGDP for a 1% increase in LNGDP(-1). Similarly, The T-stat LNEDS(-1) showed highly significant 2.04 which means a 0.31% increase on LNGDP for a 1% increase in LNEDS(-1).

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You got it right, Abu!👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽 Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

    • @abusuhayb6791
      @abusuhayb6791 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix Qatar

  • @ucheosemenam4101
    @ucheosemenam4101 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Nice videos. Please Ma, can you make out time to do a video on SVAR and how to impose restrictions on Eviews?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Great suggestion Uche. I will but it will be posted on my paid Teachable platform. Here is the link cruncheconometrix.teachable.com/p/practical-econometrics-for-researchers-beginners-and-advanced-level-users-perba/

  • @mohammedarmah9035
    @mohammedarmah9035 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    You are doing a great job. Keep it up.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Mohammed, thanks for the encouraging feedback. Deeply appreciated! Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @panggaulibau9849
    @panggaulibau9849 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    thnk you i love you. hopefully can graduated next year

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  6 ปีที่แล้ว

      That's gr8, Pang...glad to be of help! 💕 😊

  • @phillipsturm5701
    @phillipsturm5701 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    You are doing a great job, thank you. By which percentage is said that the exogenous variable has a great influence on the endogenous variable. ?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Phillip, thanks for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated! 💕 Strong exogenous influence is when other variables in the VAR model do not influence movement in the outcome variable. No industry guidelines as to the percentage. But any figure below 50% should do. May I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @genesisb.kollie753
    @genesisb.kollie753 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you very much for your tutorial. It is helpful

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Genesis, I'm really glad that you got value while watching and I hope that you have subscribed so that you get my videos the moment I upload them. Kindly help to share my link th-cam.com/users/CrunchEconometrix to your friends and social media community. A lot of beginners need to know that econometrics is not difficult at all.

  • @dimasmukhlas3952
    @dimasmukhlas3952 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks! Its helpful!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks, Dimas for the encouraging feedback. Deeply appreciated! 🙏💗

  • @gobindaroy6616
    @gobindaroy6616 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Excellent !

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks Gobinda, for the positive feedback. Deeply appreciated! Kindly share my Channel link with your students and academic community...thanks!

  • @ብሬአለክስ
    @ብሬአለክስ ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks alot

  • @immaculatelum5102
    @immaculatelum5102 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks ma

  • @moisedjepangkouamo469
    @moisedjepangkouamo469 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    very helpfull tutorial. i appreciate. but my principal preoccupation is how to run GMM model througt eviews?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      You may need to check other online resources.

  • @m.a.a393
    @m.a.a393 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you for the explanation ma. For the VAR estimates, how do you know when the results are significant?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Use the t-stat like I mentioned in the clip. I'll refer you to any basic econometrics textbooks for more info on hypotheses testing and inferences.

  • @paleesemendy7497
    @paleesemendy7497 ปีที่แล้ว

    thanks for the head up😍

  • @sarahben1
    @sarahben1 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi, this video was very informative! I have a question regarding the p values and coefficients I have obtained after running a VAR - some of my variables show a statistically significant p-value (less than 0.05) however they have a negative coefficient and negative t-statistics. What is your opinion on this? How shall I go about interpreting these results? Or is my model wrong? Fortunately this is only occurring to my control variables and not my variable of interest.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thanks for the positive feedback, Sarah. Negative coefficients imply that when the regressors change the dependent variable falls.

  • @okanaybar
    @okanaybar 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I like your video. Thank you. My question is in regards to the endogenity-exogenity terms. Regarding the terms under "From other variables", should the first one, "Strongly Exogenous" not be "implies strong influence on dependend variable"?. Or is it true to say "implies weak influence on dependend variable"?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi Okan, thanks for complimenting my video, deeply appreciated. The interpretation is correct. Remember that VAR is an endogenous model, so if other variables have weak influence on the outcome variable, it implies that those other variables exhibit "strong exogeneity"....may I know where you are reaching me from?

    • @okanaybar
      @okanaybar 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix That's right. I am from Turkey. I am also Phd studen in France. I taught Finance at Rennes School of Busines and at Rennes Campus of Coventry University. I am also finance practicioner. I am commodity trading expert.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@okanaybar Amazing profile...impressive!!! Kindly share my videos with your students and academic networks. Thanks!

    • @okanaybar
      @okanaybar 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      When you do Var decomposition (multivariable process) with 2 lags, would it be meaningless to do bi-variate VAR and interpret results? Or the VAR model should also be multivariable?

    • @okanaybar
      @okanaybar 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@CrunchEconometrix I sure will

  • @milesjd3021
    @milesjd3021 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hello. Thank you so much for your tutorial! It is helping me a lot right now. :)
    But I am just wondering, in writing the VAR model, do I have to write the full model (even some of the coefficients are not significant) or I just need to present the model with only the significant coefficients included?
    Thank you so much!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      I think you mixed up your queries. You specify a model BEFORE estimation and coefficients (significant and not significant) are obtained AFTER estimation

    • @milesjd3021
      @milesjd3021 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@CrunchEconometrix what if I already specified the model, but after estimation, some of the obtained coefficients are not significant. Can I still use the nonsignificant coefficients in substituting to the specified model?
      P. S. Sorry if I have too much question.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      I don't understand what you imply by "Can I still use the nonsignificant coefficients in substituting to the specified model?"

  • @sbodavtians5591
    @sbodavtians5591 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi Ngozi thank you so much for your videos, i just have a question, how can you tell by the t-statisic what a variable is significant or not? What do you compare the t-statisic to?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Davtians, thanks for the positive feedback on my videos. Deeply appreciated. The regression output is based on a 2-tailed test using the 95% confidence interval at which a t-stat of 1.96 is considered to be significant at the 5% level. However, because many students often get confused about the t-stat, I encourage the use of the p-values which gives the exact level of significance at which the H0 can be rejected...may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?

  • @goherfatima9791
    @goherfatima9791 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hello. thank yo for uploading these good and very informative videos. I want to make you request that can you please make videos for estimating structural VAR (SVAR) and specifically how to impose restrictions. I am learning it these days but your help in this regard would be highly appreciated.
    Many thanks

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Alright Goher, I'll have to learn SVAR and once I fully understand, then I will do videos on it. thanks!

    • @saada.izeddin7712
      @saada.izeddin7712 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi Fatima
      any helping results do you have for your question? I have to understand the SVAR model and how to apply restrictions to finish my Dessertaion.
      Best Regards

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Saad, there are several TH-cam videos on SVAR. Do a thorough search on TH-cam.

  • @willwu5366
    @willwu5366 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Hi, I got a question that what if I obtained a large S.E in the variance decomposition analysis? Thank you!

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Will, I suggest that you use the p-value to take your decision.

  • @pedromrfernandes
    @pedromrfernandes 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you for the video.
    A 93,2% increase on real GDP? GDP almost doubles after a 1% increase em GDP(-1)?! does this make sense? or am I understanding this wrong? or is the variation of GDP in period t-1 responsible for 92,3% of the variation in period t?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You scientifically interpret based on the outcome of your estimation. You can then find the intuition for it.

    • @pjmccloskey225
      @pjmccloskey225 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      I agree with Pedro. Bosede means a 0.932% increase for a 1% increase.

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Thanks for the clarity PJ, that was definitely a slip from me. Gracias!

  • @dorstellappiah3173
    @dorstellappiah3173 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Hello Dr, please in presenting your VAR results is there a need to presents all the results of the other dependent variables. in my case i have one dep. variable and three indep. variables. Do i need to presents the other independent variables being used as dependent variables?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  4 ปีที่แล้ว

      The choice is yours really. You can report on all or only the main variable of interest. Also, check papers that used VAR and adapt their style.

  • @TheAndreapop22
    @TheAndreapop22 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    hi!! we do not have to invert the signs??

  • @shubhamgarg9540
    @shubhamgarg9540 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Mam for running VAR model, our variable should be stationery at the same level. Is it necessary only for endogenous variables or also for exogenous variable. If all our variable are stationery at same level, but one exogenous variable are not, then we can run Var model or not.
    Please clarify

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hi Shubham, ALL the variables MUST be integrated of order one. I will advise you watch my VAR videos. Thanks.

  • @30Oliviaa
    @30Oliviaa 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Is it possible to do a Generalised Forecast Error Variance Decomposition in Eviews? How?

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi Priya, apologies for the late response. Could be, not sure.

  • @mehdifarouki330
    @mehdifarouki330 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    WHAT IS SE PLEASE

  • @axelndjore1896
    @axelndjore1896 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    When do we use first difference to run VAR estimation

    • @CrunchEconometrix
      @CrunchEconometrix  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Axel, I have responded to you on a different thread.