URGENT: Federal Reserve Cancels Recession, Prices Fall, Massive Pivot Ahead
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
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THE LATEST INFLATION REPORT:
Inflation increased to 3.5%, year over year, driven higher by several categories: Energy prices rose 1.1%, Shelter costs rose 0.4%, egg prices increased by 0.9%, and medical care services surged 0.6%. Core CPI also appears nearly unchanged from a year earlier.
THE STOCK MARKET:
Warren Buffett’s measure of the stock market suggests that prices are expensive. With this gauge, a reading of “100% is said to be fair, at 70%, stocks are a bargain price, and if it’s near the 200% mark - investors are playing with fire.” As of the time I’ve filmed the video, the Buffett Indicator is trading at 193%.
However, in fairness - the Buffett Indicator is said to be somewhat flawed since it doesn’t take into account how interest rates could change a company’s valuation. Critics of the “doom and gloom” say that - in the past, bubbles were something hype, and this isn’t hype because AI is being deployed at an alarmingly fast pace. Plus, even a Blackrock Strategist said “The equity market rally that we’ve seen so far has been driven by earnings growth - If this earnings growth wasn’t taking place, I may have been more open to acknowledging the bubble concept.”
THE HOUSING MARKET:
Fannie Mae found that single-family home prices have increased a whopping 7.4% year-over-year, with 1.7% of that coming in just these last 3 months. It’s said that “the supply of new homes for purchase rose to 477,000 in the month, the highest since 2008” - and, the good news for buyers is that those new constructions are actually selling for 1.9% less than a year ago as the market begins to somewhat “normalize.”
Zillow’s forecast “calls for 1.9% growth over 2024 - slower than long-term norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time buyers.” In this case, the main reason for even more growth is still the very real lack of inventory - and, the higher rates go - the less likely existing sellers are to move, which - coincidently, causes prices to rise.
www.zillow.com/research/home-...
POWELL RATE CUT:
The Federal Reserve decided NOT to lower rates, which means this is now the 8th month in a row that they’ve decided to hold steady. In terms of what Jerome Powell said about this, he mentioned that “Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work.”
They've also decided to slow the pace of Quantitative Tightening by purchasing more treasuries beginning in June 1st. In this case, instead of letting $60 Billion Per Month "Expire," they're only letting $25 Billion Expire and then reinvesting the difference.
After today’s meeting, the most likely scenario is that Jerome Powell makes no changes until inflation begins to subside, which - is hopefully by the end of the year. If it doesn’t - or, conditions worsen - another rate hike might be in order.
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-Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further - enjoy! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lGVssGFgGEyoGgM85bzPB1jzZ_dus7z7tjm021PThkk/edit?usp=sharing
How are you Graham bro ?
Thanks for being quick with your insight, we all appreciate it. 👍
This is bullshit
Home sales are slowing and Auto sales are down. Household dept is at an all time high. Recession incoming.
@@st-cavshush kid. The fact he posts sources alone makes him goated
Graham im sorry. I splurged on groceries and bought my family ice cream. I will never financially recover
My condolences
Did you finance that ice cream through Affirm?
Nothing left to do now but to doom spend
Ice cream or flavored dessert product...
Don't feed your children that sugary poison
My guy told us we were about to get another rate hike then pitched life insurance. We’re all gonna get taxed and die soon 😭
Graham is a 🤡
I bet we'll all be taxed then die, sure thing. 😂
Yes, it's ridiculous that they try to never allow any downturns in the economy at all. I think a good portion of that is political pressure. No incumbent wants a downturn in their term.
But it's also just what our society has become...soft, unable to cope with bad news, instant gratification, etc.
We don't have a mechanism for true discovery anymore.
@@Botoburst Then after you die you get taxed again
Why am I even here today🤦♂️
I was sure last year would end terrible for me but I think AWMKPX is spot on with what they do and how they do it. Cant say for how long its going to work and for sure it is overyhped right now but even if just half a year or something it would be smart to ride the wave and then jump away eventually, but the reason why this is smart right now is because its so cheap, wont ever find a better entry than now
Can anyone explain AMS99T?
Something has to give here. It feels like we are in a superficial reality.
Perhaps we are...
@GrahamStephan noone beleives your click bait anymore bro
Still waiting for wages to catch up. Good luck out there everyone.
The people who have money continue to gain more money, those with less money continue to have less, what do you think happens in late stage capitalism?
@@GrahamStephan graham don't take any pills of any solid color.
2024 is really surprising me now that AWMKPX hit the road. After all these years of barely reading anything good I was usually just shutting down any type of media influence as much as I can but this brings back good lights and it should give hope to some of you that no matter what is going on in the world at the end something good comes to surface
Wow 1k likes on your comment and i'm the only reply. Sounds legit.
what is that acronym
Awmkpx wtf is that
You are the man Graham. Thanks for always getting the people an update in such a short amount of time.
You got it!
We’re up to like $110-120 for two bags of groceries now.
Ohh man, scrolling through comments I saw this. Retried in Thailand. I can load down two carts full of food for about 200 us dollars. I'm going to get serious sticker shock when I head back to visit.
@pensionandapassport bro you love it there don't you? It's my dream to live there.
You must be single
So move to a cheaper country. Shocker!
@@pensionandapassportpeople are exaggerating, just buy store brand and you will be alright
Thank you Graham for putting these out so quickly. They are super helpful.
Glad you like them!
Thanks for getting the video out so fast! Like button has been smashed!
You got it! Thank you!
For god’s sake, can the decision makers stop acting like we can avoid a recession and just get it over with?!
Nah it's election season. It will come if their wrong guy gets elected
i thought we were already in a recession 🤔
@@gio.orbit5498 Yep, but then the white house conveniently changed the definition of recession to avoid having to admit it.
If so after the election so there is a fair election if that's the case
@@gio.orbit5498 if you're broke you always are
I raised the hammer high when your first pick was AMS91K.. Been collecting this bear cycle.
Your hard work is definitely appreciated, thank you
I appreciate that!
I just love how in depth you go…AND how fast you get the info out! Thank you! I love these videos!
Groceries are the biggest spending topic? Gee, I wonder why....
Hottest new spending category!
Food is now a luxury item
Insurance has skyrocketed the most. Both my home and auto is up double this year
Thanks Graham. You do a great job of breaking things down. Have a great day.
Thanks, you too!
Guys, just boycott groceries. Show big grocery you don't need their calories.
LOL but in all seriousness we should all change are spending habits on food ....
🤣🤣
@@tampablackwing absolutely we should
Yea I believe that's called a hunger strike.....
@stevee2639 For Americans that means starvation. We're a 3 square meal civilization. We'll actually, that was back in the 50s. People these days just snack all day.
Yes please. I would love a video that does a deep dive on the AMS91K project
Thank you for all your hard work you put in all your videos!
The house I sold in 2016 has appreciated over 100% since I sold it. The housing market is ridiculous.
Yeah .. my family bought a house and it has doubled in price in three years only .. wtf
Thanks for this update!
Absolutely love your videos Graham! Thanks for the analysis!!
Historic bubbles mean historic corrections.
Thanks for fast update
We are soo fucked 😂😅
☕️
What is so "funny" about your serious comment?!?
invest in KY JELL
@warriormanmaxx8991 it's funny because people aren't ready
Always have been.
Graham is the reason I found a passion for Finance! Thank you!
Thanks Graham for always keeping up to date ! You’re the man
Thanks for fast information!
you got it!
Obviously you are quite brilliant on many topics. Your language speed is almost like watching videos at 1.50X. Lol. great info and insight Graham. Not surprised you have so many viewers. Thx for the insight.
Thank you for a video that was informative without all the immediate "The fed is stupid I am so much smarter" vibes we see a lot on media - its easy to just be negative but the reality is its REALLY complicated. You're video gave me the information with minimal bias, super refreshing!
It's amazing how fast you uploaded this, right after it happened.
he pre films all outcomes that could happen beforehand and then just uploads the one that actually happens.
Love the update
thank you!
Does anyone else see we are repeating the 70’s? Interest rates are high, war spending, bell bottoms are even back in style
There was a study on this and a book discussion the phenomenon. Each generation follows a pattern they call it a turning .. we are on the final leg of this generation and that means a big war is due. They say basically history doesn't repeat exactly, but it always rhymes. Almost like we are all on some sort of universal algorithm. So yeah, it is similar but not exact
@@karmasutra4774 I’ll have to look that up!
I have been buying some stocks since the beginning of the year, but nothing substantial. Why am I treating this poorly? However, people in the same profession are earning six figures on articles, which inspires me to aim toward becoming the first man in my polygamous family to hit the million dollar mark. I am perfectly aware that working harder to gain more money is expensive.
I experienced the same thing; within the year, my growing tech portfolio was completely destroyed.
You're not doing anything incorrectly; you simply lack the expertise to capitalize in a down market. Professionals with extensive expertise who must have witnessed the 2021 crisis are the only ones who may profit significantly during turbulent times like this.
You're a great guy Graham..hope to get on your level some day 🎉
Great video, Graham. One of your best. Keep up the good work my man👊🏾
Not sure how inflation can only be 3.5%, when house insurance premiums increase 30%, car insurance up 49%, health insurance up 15%, groceries now cost double for the same items previously purchased.
And internet pricing had a 21% increase
Answer to the question the people who regulate insurance are the same people who are responsible for the increase in prices.
@@alstonkendra9 they pas on insane price increases so they can give themselves mutli million bonuses
I like this style of video. It does a deep dive into an important topic. (never cared for the clickbait titles). You recent more casual, more personal videos are Ok on the rare occasion. But I like these deep dive ones better.
Love the summary in description
Thank you, Graham, for being so fast to get these videos out to us. I appreciate your insight and perspective. I'm still holding out and saving to buy a house when the market adjusts. Only I live in Texas, and it seems it never will here.
I clicked on this so fucking fast lmao
You're the second comment by one second
Same lmao
Bro same
@@GrahamStephan Father you replied 🥺😍
Me too lol
When my parents bought their current home the nearby Lowes, Walmart, Trader Joes and Costco weren't built yet. Feels like the city is about to swallow the county neighborhood now and the big city prices for the homes are there, too.
Great video...I love the way you educate your audience with that being said...keep up the hard work... I have gotten a good return by just watching you and meet kevin.
Thank you for the much needed information
The Great Depression has arrived. A Costco dog meal wiped out my piggy bank.
Could you do a video on your grocery shopping?😎
ramen, potatoes, ground beef, and a tube of KY jelly for the fuckin im about to receive from this administration
Thanks Graham you're quick!
What a great video. Thank you so much
Those hands are really active home slice.
Gram Stephen is one of the best finance channels on TH-cam!
Aw thanks!
Appreciate everything you do Graham. Also you look a little slimmed up 💪🏻
Alright, fine, I’ll resubscribe, Graham. Love the videos
My husband said I need to stop doomscrolling and then you posted this gem.
Talks for 19 minutes covering the issue more comprehensively than any news outlet, finishes with, but i know nothing.
Pure class
As someone who works in insurance in Florida, I've always wondered why California companies were not leaving the state like they do in Florida. The entire state is constantly under risk from the wildfires and earthquake coverage is already almost impossible to insure, but the carriers were holding steady. It was just odd that it took so long for insurers to withdraw from California.
Im surprised that California was even the example.
Earthquakes are not as big of a deal in California as some people male it out to be. They are rarely catastrophic or generate mass casualties. Living in tornado alley is far more of a risk to your property and life.
Graham, what's your favorite Finance Books ..?
For Money: A Random Walk Down WallStreet!
My three favorite channels: Graham Stephan, Stock Brotha, & How Money Works. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥
Something never mentioned is that all of these big companies have better data into pricing analytics.
They can better figure out how to squeeze you for every penny and better understand the maximum your willing to spend
Debt Based Slave System
Commenting for TH-cam algorithm, thanks for the work you do
Thanks, Gharam
“Cancels recession”????? It’s optional?????? Why didn’t we cancel them all????!!!
Graham knew when I would be opening TH-cam
Good timing!
It's quite simple why rates are climbing with rising imports and falling exports, the FED is obviously to be blamed for banking crisis. Something will eventually break if they keep the quantitative tightening and higher interest rates. Is this really a good time to have some savings in stocks?
first austerity, then brexit, now widespread bank failures. .always do your own research & speak to a license advisor before thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
this is incredible! how can I vet your advisor, mind sharing info, if you please?
Yessssss Graham 🔥
I hate grocery shopping nowadays. I just spent $18 on 2lbs of chicken smh 😢
What about Costco?
@@GrahamStephanguys buying organic at Whole Foods lol
It doesn't matter how you eat.... Fast food, cooking healthy food, or premade garbage. All is up to ridiculously expensive prices.
Spent $85 on an entire week of groceries for my wife and I this week. Costco and Aldi. Where on earth are you shopping?
Bro 1.87 a lb at Albertsons over here 😂
First off, the belief that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates was the driving force behind the entire economic chaos. What should we do now that we have a situation where interest rates are crashing? At this point, how would you suggest that I safely allocate $300k?
Although the market is currently volatile, aren't the current valuations a result of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and low interest rates? Therefore, my recommendation is that you consult a financial advisor who can give you entry and exit points for the shares or ETF that you are interested in.
Agreed, my portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% from early last year to date. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
The advisor that guides me is Sonya lee Mitchell, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name, She's established.
Just subscribed, love ur work
Good coverage, thanks!
Sooooo, should we hold off on investing in real estate...?
Good question!!
We need 10% interest rates!!!
This is some phenomenal content!
Keep it up, enjoyed the content
It's interesting you mention California when there is a real home insurance crisis in Florida lol.
The stripper index backs this up. Strippers have seen a big decline in their income in the past 12 months.
With AWMKPX this year is way different and way more powerful as well. These guys did everything right and they can only improve more and more, love it
Good vid bud
A great reminder that NO ONE can really predict, the Economy, stock market, and the future! Do what makes sense for YOU!!!
As my ancestors use to say, we are fucked.
Great job on getting this video out quickly. Always better without jack, your to the point and more informative.
Graham, when can I buy a simple 1,500-2,000 sqft house here in Vegas! I make a over 100k and still cannot really afford these homes!!! Crazy..
I'd reconsider if it's worth buying - short term, renting is SO much cheaper in Vegas. The numbers just aren't making sense for purchasing (unless you plan to keep your home at least 10 years).
Literally same exact question. I’m assuming no real estate investing for me here in Vegas any time soon!
I’m in the same boat . Houston Texas here 🥴
@@GrahamStephan certainly not leaving Vegas, and moving every year or so because rent gets too high or they sell the place is very frustrating. Thank you!
I'm still buying my first house within a month... not afraid...
You have balls!
I'm buying land within a couple weeks....Im very afraid...
@@gio.orbit5498 just land?
I'm shopping for some large rural acreage, praying for a good deal
@@gio.orbit5498 It was my initial thought. But, Multifamily is a better deal since building cost is still high.
Appreciate it, Graham. I enjoy hearing your insight. How much better of a situation would we would be in if we did print money and give it to other countries from start of 2023-present? May I suggest an analysis video on that…
Zillow earnings were a disaster - it suggests things are not that rosy in the housing market - prices may be up but volume is down - just unaffordable for many and renting is way cheaper right now than buying
*cancels recession until Trump gets in office*
:o
Lol
Depending on who wins will decide what actions the fed choose to happen next. This behavior is part of the political chess games.
Cancels your mom 😂😂😂
Trump has already openly said he’s for Govt shutdowns and recession
Got to love it. Groceries prices increased due to retail crime. The fed: lets up the interest rates to fix it.
This is a great pod cast ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
thanks!
Hey @GrahamStephan, not asking for legal advice but in your opinion if your given the option to lock in a mortgage interest rate between now and the end of the year would it be more beneficial to do it now?
Sp500 was all over the place today, was wondering what was going on. I appreciate your work Graham
Yeah, today was WILD to watch
Costco Hotdogs and rotisserie chickens at 0% YoY
Costco wins
My Costco pulled some shrinkflation on their rotisserie chicken recently. They're definitely buying smaller birds.
Loss leaders sold well below cost
Graham- are you continuing investing in index funds through this mess no matter what?
Your the only channel with click bait that I will actually watch cause your content is so incredible!
Gotta smash that like button for better rates
THANKS!
Fed won’t lower rates unless it sees a weakening economy and needs to stimulate demand. Low rates shouldn’t be the default position even if we did it for a decade previously. An issue we have is fiscal policy is the flip side of the government money printing machine. Powell can pull all the levers he wants on the monetary side but if you are borrowing too much money on the fiscal side, raising rates can have a neutral effect
Loved the video Graham! Could you make a new video more in depth on topic of new homes over resale? With new homes incentives and rate buy downs and warranties?
Stocks are better than bonds during inflation - can pass on to end consumer. Job openings decreasing. Even if rates by 50 bps, we have already completed the majority of the rate cycle.
They will start up QE and raise rates too.
Let’s see!
We need to raise rates not lower them 🙈
I agree !!!!
It's all just a lack of trust in the USD. I don't want to hold an asset that is always inflating long term even if it has a guaranteed Treasury rate return of 7+%.
If they raise rates again nobody is going to want to buy my Treasury note and I'm stuck holding it till who knows when. If they lower rates then stocks and assets go up more than 7% a year.
In other news: Americans on average spends 57% of their food spending on eating out and only 43% on groceries.
Average americans at a restaurant: "Man, the inflation is so bad, I hate it" *crunch* *snap* "man, the menu price went up another 10%, oh well, just charge it on my credit card". "Hey, I wonder why the inflation don't come down when we just spend more."
Are you referring to Burger King or something?
That can't be true! Or people are total idiots. We only eat out when on vacation. Which these days is rare.
Powell and Yellen should be thrown in jail for incompetence. Rates should have been 7-10% by now instead of dragging this bs out. The economy is destroyed already
What about the politicians that have been spending at a record pace?? If they’d stop giving it away they wouldn’t have to print into oblivion