Professor Thaler's humility and honesty come through everything he says, acknowledging the brilliance of the late Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman who pioneered an understanding of the curious but systematic irrational behavior of pretty well everyone who will answer questions that are an identity with diametrically opposite replies if the questions are framed differently. His contribution to economics may even be dwarfed by the understanding he has contributed to the frailty of theories in Finance like the Capital Asset Pricing Model which presumes rationality where rationality is not always present. By cross ruffing theories such as BF Skinner's variable ratio operant conditioning model; Modigliani and Miller's insights into the rational investors indifference to capital structure or dividends; and, the Sharp-Markowitz efficient frontier concepts, with the addition of Thaler's insight into investors preference for security and over reaction to negative news, Dr. Thaler has advanced our knowledge of capital markets well beyond what is still sold as prudent portfolio management today. He has helped me become quite wealthy or perhaps I am just lucky, but I have enjoyed reading his books and articles and believe we are all better off as a result of his thoughts.
Basic psychology suggests that if you want someone to do something, make it easy. I'm yet to see how CAPM and efficient frontier incorporate the behavioral aspects, or did I miss something that is happening in the latest finance research?
@@AlexFoo89 The assumption underlying CAPM and efficient frontier is that investors wish to maximize returns and minimize risks and do not dig deeper into behavioral aspects. Thaler and Shiller have demonstrated that assumption is wrong in real life, showing that investors over react to adverse events and under appreciate positive developments, and in Shiller's case are driven more by FOMO than common sense. B.F. Skinner pioneered an understanding of behavior based on operant conditioning that explains why otherwise sensible people will wear adult diapers and squander their life savings at slot machines where they have no chance of winning but convince themselves they will come out ahead.
He is a Nobel Prize ! Hope , Oxford union always present the great source not only on economics, perhaps from English literature as my mayor. I love Economics and Biology too. So happy this union presents my love mayors. Be inspired everyone !🇬🇧
The Asian dude with glasses in the front row on the left annoys me. Instead of having his head buried in his notebook and constantly taking notes, he should have enjoyed the presence of the esteemed guest more. Look it up later and then take your notes.
Don't know the man, but search seems to indicate he doesn't get Bitcoin - so I'm leaving the vid unfinished at 15 min... Please reply to my comment if they get into Bitcoin later... PS: A prediction just came came to me - Satoshi Nakamoto will receive a Nobel Prize in Economics at some point. 🏆 You heard it here first... 🏁
Why so? If the community determines who gets the prize, and if Thaler is representative of the community, why would they award the prize towards a field they have no understanding of?
I believe Thalers' findings benefit humanity more than the creation of Bitcoin. Im not saying its not a revolutionary action in the world of finance but still not solving the real economic issues. It might actually create more complex problems in fragile financial systems. The prize is given to those who definitely make a positive change, which is represented very well in the findings of Esther Duflo and her collegues.
By default, I click on youtube and I watch clips. When does it occur to me that the default option was to press the computer power button, double click Brave browser, type youtube in URL, and type richard thaler interview in the search box? I could have watched other stuff like NFL or president speeches or other things. In what ways am I exactly nudged to explain my current behavior?
yeah, those are called error bars and climate models have always been accurate, and have been getting more accurate every year. The one conservatives like to refer to is the 1980 climate model that the news overblew. You have to remember that the difference between then and now is that back then people had a whole building that could do like a single calculation. Now we have supercomputers and quantum computers that can simulate anything to like almost 100% accuracy.
It popped up on my feed. So I guess the TH-cam algorithm 'nudged' me to watch this video.
haha
Professor Thaler's humility and honesty come through everything he says, acknowledging the brilliance of the late Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman who pioneered an understanding of the curious but systematic irrational behavior of pretty well everyone who will answer questions that are an identity with diametrically opposite replies if the questions are framed differently. His contribution to economics may even be dwarfed by the understanding he has contributed to the frailty of theories in Finance like the Capital Asset Pricing Model which presumes rationality where rationality is not always present. By cross ruffing theories such as BF Skinner's variable ratio operant conditioning model; Modigliani and Miller's insights into the rational investors indifference to capital structure or dividends; and, the Sharp-Markowitz efficient frontier concepts, with the addition of Thaler's insight into investors preference for security and over reaction to negative news, Dr. Thaler has advanced our knowledge of capital markets well beyond what is still sold as prudent portfolio management today. He has helped me become quite wealthy or perhaps I am just lucky, but I have enjoyed reading his books and articles and believe we are all better off as a result of his thoughts.
Basic psychology suggests that if you want someone to do something, make it easy. I'm yet to see how CAPM and efficient frontier incorporate the behavioral aspects, or did I miss something that is happening in the latest finance research?
@@AlexFoo89 The assumption underlying CAPM and efficient frontier is that investors wish to maximize returns and minimize risks and do not dig deeper into behavioral aspects. Thaler and Shiller have demonstrated that assumption is wrong in real life, showing that investors over react to adverse events and under appreciate positive developments, and in Shiller's case are driven more by FOMO than common sense. B.F. Skinner pioneered an understanding of behavior based on operant conditioning that explains why otherwise sensible people will wear adult diapers and squander their life savings at slot machines where they have no chance of winning but convince themselves they will come out ahead.
This is the type of content I subscribed for.
2:42 what's that thing flying down? your school is infested with harry potter-style apparitions or something
He is a Nobel Prize ! Hope , Oxford union always present the great source not only on economics, perhaps from English literature as my mayor. I love Economics and Biology too. So happy this union presents my love mayors. Be inspired everyone !🇬🇧
00:59 lmao he made the same joke in the University of Chicago.
PS: The same at 30:00
min 40..CHINA & DICTATORIAL nudging
The Asian dude with glasses in the front row on the left annoys me. Instead of having his head buried in his notebook and constantly taking notes, he should have enjoyed the presence of the esteemed guest more. Look it up later and then take your notes.
Don't know the man, but search seems to indicate he doesn't get Bitcoin - so I'm leaving the vid unfinished at 15 min...
Please reply to my comment if they get into Bitcoin later...
PS: A prediction just came came to me - Satoshi Nakamoto will receive a Nobel Prize in Economics at some point. 🏆
You heard it here first... 🏁
Why so? If the community determines who gets the prize, and if Thaler is representative of the community, why would they award the prize towards a field they have no understanding of?
@@flamingxflamingo5330 Just conjecture on my part - maybe 20 years down the road...
@@rwess There are conjectures and then there are wrong opinions.
@@TasX Indeed. The Nobel Committee has proven that.
I believe Thalers' findings benefit humanity more than the creation of Bitcoin. Im not saying its not a revolutionary action in the world of finance but still not solving the real economic issues. It might actually create more complex problems in fragile financial systems. The prize is given to those who definitely make a positive change, which is represented very well in the findings of Esther Duflo and her collegues.
If you buy a coffee, and a barista offers a pastry as well - we are more likely to buy the pastry when it is offered as a suggestion.
Jones Dorothy White Susan Lewis Sharon
By default, I click on youtube and I watch clips.
When does it occur to me that the default option was to press the computer power button, double click Brave browser, type youtube in URL, and type richard thaler interview in the search box?
I could have watched other stuff like NFL or president speeches or other things. In what ways am I exactly nudged to explain my current behavior?
This is exciting. It is the dawn of a new Enlightenment.
I'm too bored to find out what he did to get a Nobel Prize
Let's learn economics ! The important part in Politics & International Relations 🇬🇧❤️
these "rational" models are way "oversensitive" to imagined values for variables. This is why the climate models have badly failed.
yeah, those are called error bars and climate models have always been accurate, and have been getting more accurate every year. The one conservatives like to refer to is the 1980 climate model that the news overblew. You have to remember that the difference between then and now is that back then people had a whole building that could do like a single calculation. Now we have supercomputers and quantum computers that can simulate anything to like almost 100% accuracy.