China's Economic Crisis
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 พ.ค. 2024
- This video is sponsored by NOA - Use this link to get one month free trial of NOA bit.ly/3AjmZ06
Following the post-pandemic economic rebound, many countries have run into secondary problems. In the west, it has focused on spiking inflation and energy prices, whereas in China it is more to do with slowing growth as it deflates the credit bubble that fuelled the Chinese housing market boom. In this video, we look at the nature of their problems and the solutions that China has come up with and we consider whether this represents an opportunity for investors.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introductions
00:42 Economic Problems
02:30 Zero Covid
02:55 Drought
04:05 Tech Wreck
07:04 Property Developers
09:32 Taiwan
11:02 Stimulus
11:55 Hope
14:15 Conclusion
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This video is sponsored by NOA. You can use this link to get one month free trial of NOA bit.ly/3AjmZ06
What concerns me the most is you can never know when the government could intervene and destroy sectors overnight. This is an investor’s biggest fear because while recessions fade and are arguably part of the usual cycle, authoritarian governments have nobody to account to and can remain in power for a long time.
Another very good educational video keep them coming thanks 👏🏾👊🏽
Thanks, will do @jermaine robinson
Hi Ramin, I hope Japan is on your list for an overview like this video.
All are always fantastic. I have learned so much from watching your videos. Thank you!
Thank you for this information. Could you maybe please go more into the details of the PBOC´s different rates? I mean what they relate to and how they influence each other.
great content thanks
Glad you enjoyed it @z
Great as always, thank you
😎
Thanks again @Rafael F
Informative video as usual :)
Glad you think so @JB
Thank you
Thanks a lot for your great China analysis 👍
Welcome!
That was a great analysis. I like the way you weaved in the political situation. Could you possible cast your eyes on the short and long-term prospects of the Pakistani economy as well as the potential opportunities. Thanks :)
Glad you found it helpful @Imran
How about the UK’s inflation? Is that 10.1%?
I'm typing this based on what you said right away and haven't listened to all yet, but China's not worried about inflation while the rest of the world is? It's a good thing they can inflate their numbers, except COVID, that must stay at zero at all costs.
this guy is basically reading all mainstream media and their biased data. I wanna spend 15 minutes to hear your own research,not repeating those media for me.
We also need to consider the shift to onshoring and near shoring trade.
@@mindcache5650 No, it's not.
Can you do a deeper analysis on China's real estate market? What was said in the video was just the surface I believe. Thank you!
Very insightful! Thank you Ramin. Emerging Value sounds interesting, but I wonder which Emerging markets? The iShares Edge MSCI EM Value Factor - which seems to be the only available ETF - is with 34.6% invested in China. 🤔
Glad it was helpful @Women’s Finance Coach
Personally I have been looking into emerging markets focusing on foreign debt, potential forex risk (including energy security here bc it might be mostly about imports) and most of all demographics by education and labor market participation for the next 20 years and up (that rules out China) bc I deem that likely be in lockstep with GDP growth. This approach doesn't have to be a good idea, it's just what I do and is not a recommendation to do anything similar. ETFs and Index certificates aren't looking particularly well put together for markets such as Vietnam (which is kind of where the streams seem to cross most) with the basket often being composed of international corporations currently having stakes in the country; to me that is not what I'm looking for. Also often if you try to buy an index it will be a long investment in the one or two industries that currently dominate that domestic economy. So South Africa could be undervalued but you'd have no way of investing into a diverse index and instead just back mineral prices for better or worse.
So, I'm interested in the same thing. And it seems not so easy to reasonably invest.
I like it how Rob over emphasis the "wan" in Taiwan
Thanks for the great overview. The problem of china is the political cloud always affects the market .
Your welcome @steve
There's so many more layers to this. This is a good introduction to the Chinese house of cards. I'd recommend digging into other channels to get a full spectrum of this titanic wreck on channels like China Insight.
"Latest profits from Tencent were very disappointing"
They made less than 10 cent.
😁😆😅😂😂
These are near term aspects, population criss is the major long term factor. If we consider valuation, DCF is not going to cut it. Is there any model that take population growth into account?
POPULATION Growth Ramin!! If your long China, look the hell out. Can’t believe he didn’t mention. Im still buying for a 1yr out bounce but…
Yes indeed. China faces demographic implosion within a generation. 600 million Chinese is forecast for end of the century. There is no economic way out of that. It is said that 'China will get old before it gets rich'.
@@dwal007 I am more pessimistic. Being able to get old would be a luxuary if the country falls into a civil war. Unlike the west, there is a large population employed by the public sector, including the state own enterprises. Many Chinese media have been reporting on local government planning layoffs on an unprecedented scale for the rest of the year, this time including state own enterprises. Looking back in Chinese history, many up rising has been led by ex-civil servants. It would be great if Ramin can dedicate a video to “A survivals' guide to a collapsed China economy" :)
@@Drakal169 yes agreed, societal implosion could well happen too
Why did you say disastrous COVID policy in China? Can you comment on that?
UK Households Facing Biggest Living Standards Shock in a Century. Let’s short UK index. 🤣
"youth" unemployment. How is "youth" defined? 18-24? Pre-collage age or non collage personnel?
Could you show Europe and USA Crisis? How much money do U get for this video?
Although difficult to do but since Covid, I have tried to avoid purchasing Chinese goods.
Why?
@@wolfiestreet6899 Because they deliberately caused the pandemic so should suffer the economic after effects.
Your discussion on house purchases is not correct ( we built 7,000 apartments); the developer is paid prorata.
Itll be interesting to see how itll impact the western companies that offshored operations
Which is the vast majority of western companies that sell goods…
Erm ok
Not only offshored production but also a big sales market which accounts for a large chunk of their revenues.
Ho no😨
Chi does not think like a capitalist. Planning to invade Taiwan one day makes China and Hong Kong uninvestable for a long term investor despite China’s great potential and low valuation.
china is not dependent on trade to taiwan.
Until they start closing off areas, giving people the best vaccines and let it rip, I don't see things improving. I think they might start doing it after the winter meetings. They'll need to build up some immunity, especially in the elderly population. Hopefully, those test areas do fine and then they can slowly implement more areas. They use the argument of security for choosing their own vaccines, but they don't mention things like seeds (80% imported) which might also be harmful. Would they buy off the IP for the better vaccines and call it there own? BJ has to save face somehow.
What use are the vaccines?
Will Alibaba be delisted from the NYSE?
What do you know flu season starts in the fall. The coronavirus happens to mirror the flu identically.
Investing in china would be ignoring future trends. Equivalent of swimming naked.
Something else I've seen about China is that wage growth has been steady at about 5% per year for over 20 years. Perhaps another decade or so and their wages will compare with western wages. But this means that the days of relying upon cheaper imported goods from China will come to an end.
Which is kinda what happened to Japan? It's no longer cheap to make things there - although that seems more Japan's loss as their economy never really found a new employment sector. (I thjnk?)
But China still keeps a second lower class of citizens to work factory jobs. Are the wages raising that steadily for them as well? I assume they are too and chinas cheap coat of manufacturing is unsustainable
Which is surely always been Chinas aim?
Thanks Ramin. Will stay away for the time being.
Pay in full? So there’s no mortgage? No banks in China? I’m against CCP but this is too much.
Slowing growth is not the same as the stagflation that the West is experiencing.
China 's debt is going to be paid off by African and Asian markets/ projects, according to their government... Assuming Africa and Asians do not default on payments
Even if the developing countries do default China Will get its pound of flesh. China is following the model the British Empire followed. Economic dependency leading to political control.
@@jonahtwhale1779 How will they get that pound of flesh? I don't see them putting boots in the ground.
USA and UK would be worse if China is bad. any btw, profit from games for kids just 3% of all the profit Tencent makes.
Great video as always Ramin. You always manage to provide a valuable perspective on any topic you pick.
I don't buy the argument for China's dependence for chips on Taiwan as a deterrent to invade. If China invades and owns Taiwan (assuming they succeed), they own the chip factories. Regardless, it would be a disaster not just for China and Taiwan but for the rest of the world.
If China invaded Taiwan the Taiwanese wouldn't just roll over.
Taiwan would become a warzone. Chip factories and all.
X?
What do you know Ukraine is the major supplier of xenon and crypton gases for 70% of global supply. How convenient that we have a war in Ukraine and Shanghai’s largest manufacturing port in the world is disrupted. It’s all a charade. It’s done by purpose.
Disaster how?
Taiwan itself manufacture 60 percent of semiconductor chip chips which are now used in everything from smartphone to robots. If china invades Taiwan specially if take over the semiconductor industry, china will gain control of world's electronic manufacturing of semiconductors, so after there is very very high chances of inflations specially of electronics in those nations who have bad relations with china. That's all I know, if I am wrong then feel free to correct me
FOOLS AND THEIR MONEY...
India seems to be emerging reasonable well from the Pandemic , especially with all that cheap Russian oil & gas. To early to say , but might be a good decade for the country ?
It has huggeeeee youth unemployment - far too many smart people with multiple degrees etc, but no work for them.
Sounds like a recipe for a war- econo.ic hard times and too many young men!
My biggest concern is a worsening econimic war with china
Fear mongering. Will China take over Taiwan, very possible just like they took HK. Does America think it should go to war over it? That is on us not China.
Which could be a run in to a real war unfortunately.
Fun!
Do you have any predictions right?for 20 years....😂
What about the warm winter coming soon in Europe? Is it as important as the economic crisis in China? Is this video some remedy for anxious Westerners?
Who's anxious?
Excellent video. But in a financial channel could we not pass judgement on China by calling their Covid policy 'disastrous'? For a proper assessment one would need to consider per capita deaths in China versus the west for same amount of period etc. I don't think it's appropriate to comment on a serious subject, outside of economy, in this financial discussion. Thanks.
UK and China may both be cheap, but even if the west starts to diversify more in where it gets it's goods made, which seems likely and sensible, I still think China will pick up again in the medium term. For the UK apart form it's most successfull multinationals there will be nothing doing for a long time without a better solution to our current trade woes ( don't mention the B word)
lais lais lais
Sounds like China's duck (Peking) is cooked!
KWEB to the moon! 🚀😆
maybe the dark side
The more the government gets in the way, the worse the downstream effects. Never fails.
This is literally the opposite that's happening
@@thekingoftheworld9553 No, the CCP forced all investment into housing market, you had no choice as a private citizen. There is no free stock market, no overseas investment (not allowed to transfer money out of the country).
@@thekingoftheworld9553 The Chinese private sector locked their people in their homes, implemented zero COVID, restricted video game play time, bailed out irresponsible lenders, constantly threatens Taiwan, cut interest rates during inflation, and got stocks delisted from US exchanges? I wasn’t aware.
@@thekingoftheworld9553 Good Joke !
Old news. 🥴
It's only old news if you've heard it before. Others might not have.