For someone retiring early, invested globally, plus 10 years living expenses in cash, would you use your cash account first for the first 7 years and then switch to the global equity fund and withdraw 3% per annum, adjusted for inflation?
Hi @carlyndolphin thanks for the superchat! That strategy of selling bonds first then when they are exhausted selling equity is suggested as being best by some researchers. The intuition is that if you leave equity for longer the long-term return and compounding are allowed to lift your portfolio value as much as possible. For example Spitzer & Singh's "Is Rebalancing a Portfolio During Retirement Necessary?" does back-testing to demonstrate that this strategy is a good one. I'd also recommend our podcast interview that discusses a portfolio with a wider range of assets which back-tests very well across multiple countries "Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts" many-happy-returns.captivate.fm/episode/building-a-bulletproof-retirement-portfolio Thanks, Ramin
Hi again =D I am all caught up now so seeing these right after they air!!! That last question was a BANGER! Thank you for the great videos as usual =) Guessing this is the last Q&A of 2024 =(
Hi @goodq Thank you again for your generosity. Yes this is the last Q&A live stream of 2024 but I will be doing live steams for the FOMC and & Bank of England rate announcements next week. And i'll be back on the 2nd of January with my next TH-cam live Q&A
With regards to moving your workplace pension into your SIPP you have to consider that sometimes the company offers life insurance payments on your death to your dependent based on your pension contribution s. Mines has x2
Ramin, do you have a link to that paper you mentioned a few months ago that discussed the 60/40 portfolio being dead for a longer time-frame, please? Thanks
Hi @VoicedOfThe perhaps you're thinking of the Goldman Sach research note I covered in "Switch Stocks For Bonds" th-cam.com/video/7JvLRb5zU2c/w-d-xo.htmlsi=4YlsJYl17X4Za8I4 ? The name of that research note is "Goldman Sachs Global Strategy Paper Number 71". Thanks, Ramin
@@Pensioncraft No, it’s not this. You discussed with Damien Talks Money about a paper you’d read about the 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio and simulations that had been run for a longer time frame and the results were quite eye-opening. I’d post the link to the video if I could. It’s on Damien’s channel and he’s titled it ‘60/40 portfolio is dead’
Interesting the comments about X. My feed, too, is just awful with heaps of sensationalist stuff I really don't want to see and seemingly nothing I can do about it. On the other hand, CNN recently reported that pre-Musk, Twitter was (in the USA) 70% Democrat and 30% Republican in terms of users. It is now pretty close to 50/50.
Trump said he would build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. He only built 5 miles and Mexico didn’t pay. What he says to win an election and what he delivers are very different.
Sure @george6977 that is true. And I think I mentioned that we don't actually know what the policies will be. If it does become apparent that they are making inflation surge I suspect the market reaction will serve to change the mind of policymakers or at least to dial back on the magnitude of the change e.g. smaller tariffs, fewer deportations. Thanks, Ramin.
One thing to keep in mind: whether he can deliver or not, every policy has consequences. Just like his tariffs on China in his first term, which led to subsidies for American farmers to offset the losses due to Chinese retaliation in the trade war in 2018 and 2019, costing around $28 billion in taxpayer money. He'll go ahead with the global tariff promises this time, no question about it. The big problem is the same as always: he's incapable of planning to minimize the negative impacts. His same old trick is to blame others if it fails and take credit for everything else.
The more I think about this the more I think that we are heading for a fairly significant correction, wars, massive state debt across the free world, a USA market that was already high before Trump got in, what do other people think? Or. Am I just overly cautious?
Personally I don't use X or Blue sky. The FT is a left leaning publication, they left X because of bias so others follow, doesn't that make Blue sky a place to hear the same bias views? At least on X you have a melting pot of all views. I don't agree Blue sky is any different because a few left leaning groups have moved there.
Try it out then judge. It feels like twitter when it started and without the manipulation, plus some clever additions. Sure, it's a little left leaning at the moment, but that will balance out over time. Hank green did a good video on it.
![เป็นไปได้ไหม - WanMai [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/_6lZ6b3_7Vo/mqdefault.jpg)
One of the best channels
Thanks so much @andremooney
For someone retiring early, invested globally, plus 10 years living expenses in cash, would you use your cash account first for the first 7 years and then switch to the global equity fund and withdraw 3% per annum, adjusted for inflation?
Hi @carlyndolphin thanks for the superchat! That strategy of selling bonds first then when they are exhausted selling equity is suggested as being best by some researchers. The intuition is that if you leave equity for longer the long-term return and compounding are allowed to lift your portfolio value as much as possible. For example Spitzer & Singh's "Is Rebalancing a Portfolio During
Retirement Necessary?" does back-testing to demonstrate that this strategy is a good one. I'd also recommend our podcast interview that discusses a portfolio with a wider range of assets which back-tests very well across multiple countries "Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts" many-happy-returns.captivate.fm/episode/building-a-bulletproof-retirement-portfolio Thanks, Ramin
Hi again =D I am all caught up now so seeing these right after they air!!! That last question was a BANGER! Thank you for the great videos as usual =) Guessing this is the last Q&A of 2024 =(
Hi @goodq Thank you again for your generosity. Yes this is the last Q&A live stream of 2024 but I will be doing live steams for the FOMC and & Bank of England rate announcements next week. And i'll be back on the 2nd of January with my next TH-cam live Q&A
@ Looking forward to the Q&A and FOMC. I’ll save my Happy new years for those vids! =)
With regards to moving your workplace pension into your SIPP you have to consider that sometimes the company offers life insurance payments on your death to your dependent based on your pension contribution s. Mines has x2
Ramin, do you have a link to that paper you mentioned a few months ago that discussed the 60/40 portfolio being dead for a longer time-frame, please? Thanks
Hi @VoicedOfThe perhaps you're thinking of the Goldman Sach research note I covered in "Switch Stocks For Bonds" th-cam.com/video/7JvLRb5zU2c/w-d-xo.htmlsi=4YlsJYl17X4Za8I4 ? The name of that research note is "Goldman Sachs Global Strategy Paper Number 71". Thanks, Ramin
@@Pensioncraft
No, it’s not this. You discussed with Damien Talks Money about a paper you’d read about the 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio and simulations that had been run for a longer time frame and the results were quite eye-opening. I’d post the link to the video if I could. It’s on Damien’s channel and he’s titled it ‘60/40 portfolio is dead’
Interesting the comments about X. My feed, too, is just awful with heaps of sensationalist stuff I really don't want to see and seemingly nothing I can do about it. On the other hand, CNN recently reported that pre-Musk, Twitter was (in the USA) 70% Democrat and 30% Republican in terms of users. It is now pretty close to 50/50.
So, for impartiality reasons, are you in Truth Social too? 😂
Trump rhetoric for negotiations versus policy are distinctly different
love these as ever but the number of ads does put me off watching. seem much more frequent recently
Sorry @___JJ TH-cam puts them in automatically but I have manually gone in and taken some out now
@@Pensioncraft 😲
Trump said he would build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. He only built 5 miles and Mexico didn’t pay. What he says to win an election and what he delivers are very different.
Sure @george6977 that is true. And I think I mentioned that we don't actually know what the policies will be. If it does become apparent that they are making inflation surge I suspect the market reaction will serve to change the mind of policymakers or at least to dial back on the magnitude of the change e.g. smaller tariffs, fewer deportations. Thanks, Ramin.
One thing to keep in mind: whether he can deliver or not, every policy has consequences. Just like his tariffs on China in his first term, which led to subsidies for American farmers to offset the losses due to Chinese retaliation in the trade war in 2018 and 2019, costing around $28 billion in taxpayer money. He'll go ahead with the global tariff promises this time, no question about it. The big problem is the same as always: he's incapable of planning to minimize the negative impacts. His same old trick is to blame others if it fails and take credit for everything else.
Bluesky is the worst echo chamber.
The more I think about this the more I think that we are heading for a fairly significant correction, wars, massive state debt across the free world, a USA market that was already high before Trump got in, what do other people think? Or. Am I just overly cautious?
I agree. Do you know when it's going to happen so I can sell beforehand and buy back afterwards? 😊
Wow UK share sounds like is getting hit hard
Ugh , Bluesky ?
Yea, blue sky! Works great for me now.
Right? Odd.. or promote lol
Name doesn't check @@naturalconditions
Personally I don't use X or Blue sky. The FT is a left leaning publication, they left X because of bias so others follow, doesn't that make Blue sky a place to hear the same bias views?
At least on X you have a melting pot of all views. I don't agree Blue sky is any different because a few left leaning groups have moved there.
Try it out then judge. It feels like twitter when it started and without the manipulation, plus some clever additions. Sure, it's a little left leaning at the moment, but that will balance out over time. Hank green did a good video on it.
Hello Teddy !
Dump it . . .
Trump rhetoric for negotiations versus policy are distinctly different