Pretty amazing what's happening in Texas and Florida right now. Inventory going up like a hockey stick and showing no signs of stopping. Individual listings getting 20% Zillow value write-downs in a matter of months. Of course - prices are still high across these markets. Homebuyers and investors need to be discerning. Because there will be a lot more "deals" over the 2nd half of 2024. However - make sure you understand the inventory and price trajectory in your city and ZIP before buying anything. Particularly how overvalued prices and how much further they could fall. Access the data for your city on Reventure App: www.reventure.app start by searching your ZIP coding and exploring the home value and inventory trends for free.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
This reference seems valid.. Just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, over 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate this.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
It's not just the prices, but also the increasing interest rates that are making it more difficult for people to afford homes. With a good FA you can make up your portfolio.
I agree. This is why I work with an investment advisor, I currently have $630k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth.
in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.
Sophia Maurine Lanting has always been my top choice. She’s widely regarded as a genius in her field and possesses extensive knowledge of financial markets. If you're looking for outstanding collaboration, I highly recommend checking her out.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
@marcusmatthews8255 Probably more chance it is beach front that insurance probably 30k a year now for full coverage 🤣....My friends beachfront near Ft Myers went from 6k to 22k a year within 5 years.
Then you admit its overpriced...which implies a large downside risk....which implies a pending crash. Yet, here you are claiming there is no crash even though prices are declining fast.
Living in Tampa Bay and its music to my ears. Houses are going up for sale all over, and not 1 house in my neighborhood has sold in at least a year. Houses in the area should be valued around 150K, not 500k. COVID made people beyond stupid.
It might be 500k to replace due to high construction and land costs . Taxed and insured for 500k, but its value to someone not hunting perfect weather for a retired lizard, its value is 200k. Madness of crowds situation, all pumped by dumb agents.
People in my hometown in Pasco County want nearly $300K for a 1980s 2 bed/2bath one car garage. Seriously, who wants a one car garage...you don't have room for lawn equipment or tools
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
“Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It.” I was Residential and Commercial Real Estate Appraiser in Fl from 2004-2008 and I tried to warn everyone I could but nobody believed me. I saw many of my friends who were Real Estate Agents themselves lose their homes which they had only bought a few years prior. I could not understand why they were buying much bigger houses than their families needed. I am glad I am not there to witness that again....heart breaking for sure.
No one wants to listen because they always believe it will never happen - until it does. I knew someone that didn’t understand why I didn’t want to buy a large house (more than I needed) because they did. They asked where my friends would stay if they came to visit? How about IN A HOTEL! 😂 This was a woman and her husband, that bought a McMansion just in case they had guests from out of town. It’s weird.
I have been telling everyone at my company, who lives in South Florida (our training center is in MIA), to not buy anything, and to sell whatever they can, ASAP. The insurance/HOA/property tax rates are going to go WAY up from what they are at now. It is because of our addiction to Fossil Fuels, with the resulting more, and more massive, storms, all across the world.
I was a realtor in Florida during the last crash in 2008. Clients who purchased homes the prior few years would call me in a panic telling me they want to sell before they're underwater and have negative equity. My advice was always if you need or want to sell, then Undercut All your Competition/Neighbors on the list price. List the house for basically a break even price. Not a single one of them took that advice and made the mistake of thinking that thier home was worth more then everyone else's. The worst thing you can do is list high and slowly cut the price and follow everyone in the race to the bottom.
P.S. I myself did exactly that, I owned a condo at that I had purchased in 2006 for $150,000, i put down quit a large down-payment of 30% . I didn't want to lose that so I looked up every unit for sale in my building. Nothing had sold in months and sellers refused to drop prices. I put my unit up for sale at an asking price $50,000 below my neighbors. I sold it and ended up with my original downpayment plus $500 profit and rented a room. from friends. The buyer was an investor who never moved in and lost it to foreclosure in 2011. It came back on the market on 2012 . The bank listed it for $40,000 it finally sold for $25,000 .
I had a bunch of those sellers in California. Most of them did a short sale after a while. Some just stopped paying their mortgage and were able to stay for years before foreclosure.
@@AlphaJ369 I had one friend who had gotten a home equity line of credit which he went on to borrow all of the equity leaving him with Zero equity. When prices began dropping he quit making his mortgage and line of credit payments. Each month he took the money that would have gone to pay his mortgage and heloc , he instead set it aside in cash in a safe place. It took the bank just over 2 yrs to foreclose, the bank offered him $5,000 if he would leave the place undamaged. Needless to say after 2 yrs of not paying the mortgage he had set aside a nice chunk of cash. By that time prices in Florida had tanked hard, using the cash he had saved he purchased another home that had been foreclosed on using only his cash. At that time banks wanted all those foreclosed properties off their books. You couldn't give away homes at that time. Sounds crazy but the foreclosed home he went on to purchase which had last sold for $285,000 a few years prior, he was able to buy it for $25,000 cash. No joke, true story. It worked out for him but I no way in hell would recommend anyone else try doing it.
Yep panic selling needs to kick in before there’s a real crash. These are people who had no business buying a house in the first place and only bought because the price was going up.
I am very fortunate because I live in Austin TX and a cash buyer looking to buy a home. Houses selling for $550,000 2 years ago are now close to $425,000 and they continue to drop. I am still sitting on the sidelines as I think it's possible that prices can come down another 10 to 15 %. A home I was looking at dropped another $34,000 today. This man is spot on about what is going on in TX and FL. If the stock & housing market bubble pops as may experts are predicting, it's going to create a chance of a lifetime for people looking to purchase their first home.
You've been saying the same speech for 4 years now. I remember when I skipped buying a house in 2021 cuz you said they would crash. Price at that time was 280k, it peaked to 500k and now they have plummeted to 400k, still 45% more expensive since your first crash prediction.
Smart. If you are disciplined, and invest the difference between home ownership and renting in low cost ETF- you will have a ton of money in your pocket in a few decades
@@gomerpyle7721 Not if you are in South Florida. You will loose your ass, and/or your life. Storms are going to get WAY more common, and WAY more dangerous, due to our continued consumption of Fossil Fuels. We are being STUPID!!!
@@tigersamuels1579 most of your new neighbors are people who could no longer afford to live in Miami-Dade or Broward County. rent prices are going down in Miami, as people aren't moving to hang onto their lower rent rates as opposed to exposing themselves to the new insane prices that are out there, and landlords are willing to work with their tenants to avoid prolonged vacancies. there are tons of available units that have been sitting vacant across months. insurance rates are out of this world across the entire state of Florida, and the new property restoration laws and the monetary pressure that its putting on condominium and homeowners associations has likely made it impossible for those people to come back.
I'm a Energy Code inspector/Rater in DFW, for both new construction Multifamily Apartments and Single Family and our company is seeing a slow down in work because builders are slowing down.
Keep in mind that during the 80’s people were encouraged to save due to the interest rates. Right now there’s very little incentive to save because those who are saving are watching those who are reckless taking it in. I’ve been trying to save for a home and it’s been discouraging to watch prices continue to not budge because there’s people willing to get into a mortgage where they’re paying 40% of their income. It’s insane.
The housing market in 2024 poses difficulties due to uncertainties about the Federal Reserve's ability to curb inflation and reduce borrowing costs without adversely affecting demand for assets like homes and automobiles.
Consider shifting from real estate to stocks during severe recessions. While market volatility presents short-term trading opportunities, it's crucial to approach with caution. This isn't financial advice, but investing during such times may be a strategic move, consider adopting the services of a financial expert.
In fact, I had no prior experience or understanding when I began investing in 2020, but by the end of 2023, I had made a profit of almost $850k. All I had been doing was going by what my financial advisor had told me. This demonstrates that all you truly need is a professional to assist you; you don't even need to be a great investor or put in a lot of work.
"’Iynne Marie Stella" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Put my house on the market in Houston a week ago. Felt like we may have priced on the high side. Got a full price offer yesterday. Take these videos with a grain of salt.
Ive lived in Florida my whole life. Miamidade and Broward. I work for a residential contractor and there is no crash happening. People mught suggest prices have to drop, but no one is dropping them.
I would be overjoyed to see the value of my house drop 120k. I paid 150k they say it's valued at 445k and my property tax is excessive. The state mandated discount didn't do much.
At least set a reasonable replacement value on your insurance. I found my house was over insured by 150k by reviewing how the policy changed over the past 4 years. I had to move to another company to see a 4k/year savings from 6k to 2k on 300k+.
It can't happen soon enough!! Keeps showing my home in Kissimmee going up when homes are just sitting. Everywhere you drive you see homes for sale, I've never seen anything like it. My wife came home last Saturday saying there were 3 homes next to each other all doing an open house! Even she is noticing.
I'm in Arkansas and homes are overpriced here as well. But I'm seeing price dropping slowly I'm waiting patiently to purchase one! I understand investors wanna make money but I'm not paying 240k for house you brought for 115k and then I still gotta go in there and make my own. People better get a grip asking all that money for them old outdated house.
I sold my house at the highest price point in 2021 when I was living in Austin, TX. Just waiting for prices to drop back down in the 200's or lower if it does collapse. I want to invest in a few properties.
I don’t even live in the US but both you and your software deliver a compelling narrative about the direction of the market over there, absolutely love your videos! Keep it up 👍🏼
Just had a coworker and her husband buty a house with a $3900 monthly mortgage payment. She's a new graduate nurse making no more than $40/hr and her husband is a new state patrol officer. We crunched numbers and she was looking at 50% of income going out to the mortgage. Not including insurance, taxes or utilities. The numbers had me shook.
Americans and their penchant for regarding house poverty budgets as "normal". In a way it's par for the course, since there's a lot of housing snobbery in the US. There's a dynamic where 3/4 of any metro is considered beneath them, so they end up overbidding for the two or three suburbs "worthy" of living. Using primary residence housing as a primary retirement vehicle is stupid anyways. Any vehicle you have to remove shelter over your head in order to monetize, is a false economy, given the perennial need for housing until death. Inflation always ensure any downsizing move is more expensive than living in the small house from the get go, as the smaller units get crushed with inflation, diluting down your final equity position. For most people that means not much more than 100-300K while spending more than a million in maintenance, insurance and interest (prop taxes is a wash since everybody pays that even renters) over 40 years of housing payments. In other words, they didn't save a damn thing. They'd do much better taking the smaller payment and stuffing the difference in the mattress for 40 years.
just curious, why were you crunching your coworker's number? I never talk about how much I make with my coworkers or ask them to run financials for me.
Fascinating insights on Texas and Florida markets! Detailed analysis on inventory and prices is crucial. Your analysis of affordability and geographical variations is really insightful.
I lived in TX for 2 years & hated it. I mean, don't get me wrong truly some of the best people in the whole world, but the weather was just unbearable hard to work most of the year either too hot or too cold no way to make money like that no way to survive.
Things are VERY different in South Florida, today. Insurance, HOA and property taxes will continue to increase, except for insurance, which will end, because of excessive storm losses. Only the rich, who can pay cash for everything, will be able to live in South FL.
How is it getting worse? I'm not seeing it. What I'm seeing and reading is people flooding in from CA and large construction sites everywhere, both residential and commercial. Some houses are sitting longer but eventually are sold to investors.
I've only seen a very small decrease in areas near DFW, TX. Million dollar homes are still selling quickly. I think we might see another small decline and would not call it a crash. Multi billion dollar businesses are still moving here regularly. You still see an influx of out of state license plates pouring in. I dont believe it and certainly dont see it.
I see it here in florida. Homes are on the market 100+ days with 50k price drop from initial listings and the Zestimate is still lower than the price even after the price cuts. No one wants to spend 300k on a 3 bed 2 bath that hasnt been updated since 1990. I have about 40k saved rn as a first time home buyer with 0 debt. Waiting till the end of the year to get in. Targeting 200k home price
Tampa Saint Pete Clearwater area, prices go down a smidge but jump back up. You can not get a decent home under 200,000 unless you’re in the ghetto (or you want an older out dated condo with HOAs starting at $500 a month). Average rent for a 1br is around $1400 a month before all the add ons.
I think you will find 2 seperate markets in FL. The higher end and the lower end. The higher end will be impacted as no average local can afford them and outside demand is a lot less now. The lower end will continue to be strong because locals need a place to live. Low end demand remains high while availability is very limited.
amen for the🌐 internet. the 1st home I pulled up on Zillow in Tampa is a $76,000 price drop. nice property 😍for 599k 5/5 [ Tampa, FL 33610 ]. You may not see it as much because the comps /prices in Tampa are not listed at outrageous price... to begin with.
@@cinnamonstar808 Do not focus on how much the price is dropping, instead focus on how it was increased from the last few years. The median salary in Tampa is less than 60k a year, so how many people can afford a 599k home, with a mortgage of 6 to 7%? BTW a drop of 76k (less than 15%) is not “collapsing” !
@@LucyTheBichonFrise I live by the beach in Fort Lauderdale... its insanity in South Florida. AirBnB failout + massive developers coming in the area with newer housing option is affecting our market in S.Florida. I agree new buyers entering the market on Floridian wages is almost impossible. Those who can sell + re-purchase may sit better in this market. Those who are coming in from California /New Yorker market prices also sit better to purchase. but my 2/2 DUPLEX is valued at $700k the neighborhood was so affordable 5 years ago.🏠🏡🏘 now everyone took the million dollar deal and ran. All my neighbors have sold and move out with . so turned into airbnb so are empty the neighborhood is a shell of its old self
The wages in texas dont match up w these new prices. Its gotta correct eventually. I watch the listings very carefully and houses that would have sold quickly six months ago are sitting in n dallas. We need at least 15 percent drop
Completely impossible. TX and FL are 60-65% overpriced. We have a ten year economic cycle peak in 2019 with the largest bubble in history then stacked on top of it. 2007 bubble was at least an organic 3-year price surge from home values in 2003 that were in line with historic norms. In 2019, we were already borderline into bubble territory in some places. All that "free" money was like throwing dynamite on a forest fire.
Is rent over priced?? do you see the building owners lowering rent because you said you can't afford it and you're complaining it doesn't work like that homeowners will not drop the price of their homes just like the landlord is not gonna drop the price of your rent
@@noinhibitions7572 you were clearly not a bill-paying adult ir homeowner in the US 2004-2011 when housing prices skyrocketed and then crashed. Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
So much demand is in stuck in the system due to lack of building over the past 20 years. Some markets will loosen up and for a long while (36 months) people will take profits and new home owners will overpay the same way they did for their education.
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such taskRead more
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Jessica Lee Horst” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Seeing houses for sale in my CT city north of NY City dropping initial listing prices quite a bit. One home which had a Zestimate in April of $590k just listed for $ 415k. Listing says priced to sell!
Always enjoy your videos Nick, I’m in the high desert of Southern California, just the other day I got a list of price drops for my area, Hesperia, ca. one of the homes dropped 50,000 600,000 to 550,000. 13950 chestnut st. Hesperia, ca.
I am in Hesperia too! I wanted to buy something else here but it’s too much. I would like to move to San Antonio tx and sell here but I don’t even know if I will be able to sell quickly. 😅
Check out altos research. Homes are selling at an average of 2.6 % below list price in Florida. It would be extremely rare to see a reduction in the examples provided on this video. Also, home values are still up year over a year according to all major sources. (FRED, Corelogic, Altos). Yes, inventory is increasing and so is Dave’s on market but we are still under four months inventory so as bad as it is, it’s not a crisis.
St Petersburg/Tampa inventory is absolutely skyrocketing right now. Sellers have started cutting prices, but they’re still too high. Eventually, enough people will die/divorce/lose their job, etc and won’t be able to wait a year to sell their home. These sales will drive down the comps for the entire area.
@@kernzilla I'm seeing that very nice NEW or fresh construction more expensive houses selling very quick, but anything below 1 million stays for much longer
@@rdee7406 Which part is delusional? I already own a home, and I’ve watched my home’s value drop by at least 25% since the peak in mid-2022. At the absolute top, mine probably could’ve sold for about $1.2M. A similar home in my neighborhood sold for $1.5M in a week. Now, our neighbor’s homes have been sitting for nearly a year, and have dropped from about $1.3M to $1M. Buyer interest has completely dried up. Rental rates are coming down too. We’re outgrowing our home, so I’m definitely happy to see prices coming down. Remember, it took nearly 5+ years to reach the bottom of the market during the GFC, which started in 2007 and went down until 2012! 🤯 Just be patient, and Yes, your rent is due on the 1st
@@kernzilla - It just depends on the initial listing price. If they’re priced correctly, it gets lapped up immediately. But, if they put it up too high at first, then it’s sitting, and those that are both greedy and want to sell will slowly drop the price every few weeks or so. Desperation slowly grows on these listings. Potential buyers are keenly aware of everything available, and they’re seeing this. They’re choosing to wait it out, and I’m happy for them.
My family makes maybe 75k a year before taxes. We are nowhere close to being able to afford a house in Florida. Rent is just as ridiculous here in Clay County.
Im a single 25yo in PA making 50 a year. Im never gonna be able to buy a house. Im going to have to force myself to get a gf just to be able to buy a house 😂
Also price cut rate doesn't matter what matters is the actual price cut amount. People are selling houses that went up 100% in value and they're cutting their prices by $5,000 every 3 months.
I dunno. I'm in one of those FL markets. My Zillow estimated market value just keeps going up. My taxes are still going up. My insurance is going up. All in remarkable fashion. My neighbor just sold his home for market value. I'm just not seeing any real and significant change yet.
Decreasing the fed funds rate to 0 isn't going to save the housing market. It was near zero in 2021. When the fed announced they were going to start hiking interest rates, everyone who could afford to buy a house at 3-4% mortgage rates bought a house in this period. My sister and husband bought during this "grace" period. Now they are completely tapped out and they are skipping a summer vacation this year. Dropping the fed funds rate to zero is not going to change their situation, and it won't change similar situations for millions of Americans.
The first people to cut their prices are the smart ones. Get out while you can. The price cuts of today are the comps for tomorrow and buyers will want prices below those comps to buy
Pre-Plandemic homes in my NH retirement were selling for around $150K. Today several are on the market in the $450K range but they are not moving. A lesbian couple from Cambridge, MA panic purchased the home next to mine during the lockdowns & paid $550K and have only been here twice.
I'm in Michigan, and the housing market here over the past 7-8 years has been unprecedented. Houses that were purchased for $130K in 2015 are now going for $590K. These are tiny, poorly constructed 950-square-foot homes in quiet, mediocre neighborhoods. Meanwhile, nicer, average-sized homes in better neighborhoods that were over $300K a decade ago are now selling for $750K+. It's wild.
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
bravo! I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
@@scottmcloughlin4371 500,000 left florida in 2022. We dont know how many left in 2023 yet. Im guessing its simiilar. no jobs in florida. People found out the hard way
So, all the People that moved out of California and New York to Texas, Florida, Arizona, and other States, are many of them moving back to California & New York now?
The first step to attaining wealth is figuring out your goaIs and plans - either on your own or with the heIp of a financiaI pIanner, and foIIowing through with an inteIIigent pIan, you wiII gain financial growth over the years and enjoy the benefits of managing your finance.
I am fortunate I made productive decisions that changed my finances (gathered over 1M in 2years) through my financiaI planner. Got my 2nd house in Feb, and hoping to retire nxt yr.
I’ve been waiting for the crash since I sold my house in 2017 🫣💔 I regret that daily…. Beautiful luxury home for 1,200 a month. Now I’m paying twice as much in half as much space In a rented townhouse… ya don’t know what ya don’t know…
Price cuts don't mean much when the original list price was trying to set new, higher comps. Aside from that, the data looks promising. It always takes sustained pressure to get prices down. I think you're right in that it's going to take a couple years to see real decline.
Where Florida is concerned, the biggest driver of homes available is insurance costs. Both home and auto. The other problem is that beginning with the pandemic demand for housing soared causing prices to soar as well. This caused property tax increases. So, between higher property tax and increased insurance costs for both home and auto makes Florida one of the least affordable states to live.
No one with eyes believed their was a supply issue, one problem is builders were not building affordable starter homes or single elder downzing sized homes. the other was investors flooding the housing marker. of course intrest rates and other housing costs knock virtually out of the market.
The price for lumber has also declined rapidly. Currently mills are producing less lumber because demand is falling. This may be an indication of homebuilders slowing down because no one is buying new homes in some larger markets. Yes, new housing starts in the last report are still strong but those are backward looking numbers. We will get a better indication of the direction of new homes with the next two reports.
We got 30k saved up I'm not jumping in until the rates drop below 4%.. it's actually way cheaper for us to be renting right now we're only paying $650 a month for a three bedroom house
Why do I feel like the builders of apartments know that ppl are going to get kicked out of their homes due to property tax spikes and that’s why they are building so many apartments right now and slowing down building actual homes
a lot of the property developers you're talking about began building these properties out when the market had bottomed out after COVID and many were forced to suspend construction projects. the permits on completing those homes are just happening to come due now and thus are being made available for purchase, which will only continue to over-saturate inventory and drive prices to fall further.
Texas and Florida are brutally hot. Houston has 250k people without power after hurricane Beryl. That was a week ago. No AC at this time of year in either place is unbearable. It doesn't cool off at night. Bremerton and Tampa are both located near big military bases. I am on a HUD / foreclosure list for Lacey and Olympia and I am getting multiple listings after years of only getting one or two a year. Located near a military base and state capitol.
Why? A mortgage payment for $450k at 3% is $1,897. The mortgage payment for $250k at 8% is $1,834. So the idiots who bought up all the houses when rates were low are paying an extra $70 a month.
@@TheRelevantUnknown While your math is correct, their $1879 mortgage payment isn’t as lovely, if they have incurred sizable insurance, taxes and HOA increases year over year since their time of purchase.
@@TheRelevantUnknown Yeah.... even though @ 3% the payment delivers a bigger chunk to the principle, thye're paying taxes and insurance @ double the cost. which has money escaping the other way out.
In That turquoise house in Bradenton description about halfway down it said currently used as a successful vacation rental. I must have sharp eyes for it cause I sold vacation STR homes in the Orlando area for 4 years lol.
Pretty amazing what's happening in Texas and Florida right now. Inventory going up like a hockey stick and showing no signs of stopping. Individual listings getting 20% Zillow value write-downs in a matter of months.
Of course - prices are still high across these markets. Homebuyers and investors need to be discerning. Because there will be a lot more "deals" over the 2nd half of 2024.
However - make sure you understand the inventory and price trajectory in your city and ZIP before buying anything. Particularly how overvalued prices and how much further they could fall.
Access the data for your city on Reventure App: www.reventure.app
start by searching your ZIP coding and exploring the home value and inventory trends for free.
is this fake news? i have yet to see people in florida moving out
Nick, the next presidential election is one that a smart person wouldn’t want to win with a double recession on its way!
@@ReventureConsulting you can’t keep postponing ur crash perdiction
@@Sports4All-kw5vmHere! Here!
@@sunpark9195Dude where are you? Zillow and Realtor are crashing my inbox right now, 10k markdowns left and right, complete reversal from 6mnths ago.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
Would you mind providing details on the advisor who helped you?
Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
This reference seems valid.. Just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, over 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate this.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
It's not just the prices, but also the increasing interest rates that are making it more difficult for people to afford homes. With a good FA you can make up your portfolio.
I agree. This is why I work with an investment advisor, I currently have $630k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth.
in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.
Sophia Maurine Lanting has always been my top choice. She’s widely regarded as a genius in her field and possesses extensive knowledge of financial markets. If you're looking for outstanding collaboration, I highly recommend checking her out.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
The prices in Texas have gotten so out of control high, collapsing 20% is still crazy high.
True but that's only the beginning!
It has turned into Crazifornia.🥴
When the market finds the bottom, it will have crashed much more than just 20%.
I'll take a 20% in Texas. I want to buy a new house by the end of the year or beginning on the year.
Its has a long ways down
$650,000 for a Florida cottage is ridiculous.
With insurance, interest rates and tax costs it's a 300k home again.
@@JohnnyLightningV10it’s barely a 300K home right now. The speculators can only play hot potato for so long. 😊
@@shanerogers9386 This is what I've been saying for a few years now.
Not if it’s beachfront
@marcusmatthews8255 Probably more chance it is beach front that insurance probably 30k a year now for full coverage 🤣....My friends beachfront near Ft Myers went from 6k to 22k a year within 5 years.
Crash is happening! Houses that used to be a $100K went up to $400K in a few years time and now they’re dropping to $300K! That’s not a crash yet!
Did I just find sanity in TH-cam comments?
Sssshhhhh! You are making too much sense.
It's amazing how people don't realize this.
@@SomeUserNameBlahBlah People believe what they want to believe.
Then you admit its overpriced...which implies a large downside risk....which implies a pending crash. Yet, here you are claiming there is no crash even though prices are declining fast.
Living in Tampa Bay and its music to my ears. Houses are going up for sale all over, and not 1 house in my neighborhood has sold in at least a year. Houses in the area should be valued around 150K, not 500k. COVID made people beyond stupid.
Buying at least two if the prices hit $250k or lower.
It might be 500k to replace due to high construction and land costs . Taxed and insured for 500k, but its value to someone not hunting perfect weather for a retired lizard, its value is 200k. Madness of crowds situation, all pumped by dumb agents.
People in my hometown in Pasco County want nearly $300K for a 1980s 2 bed/2bath one car garage. Seriously, who wants a one car garage...you don't have room for lawn equipment or tools
You do if you dont park your car in there@@jc1979af
@@jc1979af get a shed? garages are for cars no?
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
@@RaymondKeen. Melissa is a known scammer and wiped out the life savings of a friend of mine.
Appreciate the Texas market update 🙏🏼 We grew out of our 3 bedroom house and been wanting to upgrade for three years. Still waiting on the sidelines!
“Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It.” I was Residential and Commercial Real Estate Appraiser in Fl from 2004-2008 and I tried to warn everyone I could but nobody believed me. I saw many of my friends who were Real Estate Agents themselves lose their homes which they had only bought a few years prior. I could not understand why they were buying much bigger houses than their families needed. I am glad I am not there to witness that again....heart breaking for sure.
@@FastCar5 do you think it’ll happen again now? The bubble we’re in now is it similar to 06-07?
No one wants to listen because they always believe it will never happen - until it does. I knew someone that didn’t understand why I didn’t want to buy a large house (more than I needed) because they did. They asked where my friends would stay if they came to visit? How about IN A HOTEL! 😂 This was a woman and her husband, that bought a McMansion just in case they had guests from out of town. It’s weird.
I have been telling everyone at my company, who lives in South Florida (our training center is in MIA), to not buy anything, and to sell whatever they can, ASAP. The insurance/HOA/property tax rates are going to go WAY up from what they are at now. It is because of our addiction to Fossil Fuels, with the resulting more, and more massive, storms, all across the world.
@@atpcliffproperty taxes don’t go up if housing prices go down.. we need house prices to come down so our property taxes won’t go up
You know someone doesn't know anything about the real estate market when their only point of reference is 2008.
I was a realtor in Florida during the last crash in 2008. Clients who purchased homes the prior few years would call me in a panic telling me they want to sell before they're underwater and have negative equity. My advice was always if you need or want to sell, then Undercut All your Competition/Neighbors on the list price. List the house for basically a break even price. Not a single one of them took that advice and made the mistake of thinking that thier home was worth more then everyone else's. The worst thing you can do is list high and slowly cut the price and follow everyone in the race to the bottom.
P.S. I myself did exactly that, I owned a condo at that I had purchased in 2006 for $150,000, i put down quit a large down-payment of 30% . I didn't want to lose that so I looked up every unit for sale in my building. Nothing had sold in months and sellers refused to drop prices. I put my unit up for sale at an asking price $50,000 below my neighbors. I sold it and ended up with my original downpayment plus $500 profit and rented a room. from friends. The buyer was an investor who never moved in and lost it to foreclosure in 2011. It came back on the market on 2012 . The bank listed it for $40,000 it finally sold for $25,000 .
I had a bunch of those sellers in California. Most of them did a short sale after a while. Some just stopped paying their mortgage and were able to stay for years before foreclosure.
@@AlphaJ369 I had one friend who had gotten a home equity line of credit which he went on to borrow all of the equity leaving him with Zero equity.
When prices began dropping he quit making his mortgage and line of credit payments.
Each month he took the money that would have gone to pay his mortgage and heloc , he instead set it aside in cash in a safe place. It took the bank just over 2 yrs to foreclose, the bank offered him $5,000 if he would leave the place undamaged.
Needless to say after 2 yrs of not paying the mortgage he had set aside a nice chunk of cash. By that time prices in Florida had tanked hard, using the cash he had saved he purchased another home that had been foreclosed on using only his cash.
At that time banks wanted all those foreclosed properties off their books.
You couldn't give away homes at that time. Sounds crazy but the foreclosed home he went on to purchase which had last sold for $285,000 a few years prior, he was able to buy it for $25,000 cash. No joke, true story.
It worked out for him but I no way in hell would recommend anyone else try doing it.
Yep panic selling needs to kick in before there’s a real crash. These are people who had no business buying a house in the first place and only bought because the price was going up.
I am very fortunate because I live in Austin TX and a cash buyer looking to buy a home. Houses selling for $550,000 2 years ago are now close to $425,000 and they continue to drop. I am still sitting on the sidelines as I think it's possible that prices can come down another 10 to 15 %. A home I was looking at dropped another $34,000 today. This man is spot on about what is going on in TX and FL. If the stock & housing market bubble pops as may experts are predicting, it's going to create a chance of a lifetime for people looking to purchase their first home.
You've been saying the same speech for 4 years now. I remember when I skipped buying a house in 2021 cuz you said they would crash. Price at that time was 280k, it peaked to 500k and now they have plummeted to 400k, still 45% more expensive since your first crash prediction.
But he’s a lot richer now off doing these videos…
You made a life decision based on a youtuber? Lmao
HOA, insurance, and taxes will keep me from even wanting another house.
Smart. If you are disciplined, and invest the difference between home ownership and renting in low cost ETF- you will have a ton of money in your pocket in a few decades
@@gomerpyle7721 Not if you are in South Florida. You will loose your ass, and/or your life. Storms are going to get WAY more common, and WAY more dangerous, due to our continued consumption of Fossil Fuels. We are being STUPID!!!
I knooooww. They found a way to collect forever even after you buy, you continue to rent
That's the goal. "You will own nothing and be happy."
Same thing is happening to car ownership.
Why would you ever buy HOA?
It's well over due. Prices in Tampa are insanity.
And it's not even nice here
It really isn’t. I figured they’d all leave by now.
@@tigersamuels1579 most of your new neighbors are people who could no longer afford to live in Miami-Dade or Broward County. rent prices are going down in Miami, as people aren't moving to hang onto their lower rent rates as opposed to exposing themselves to the new insane prices that are out there, and landlords are willing to work with their tenants to avoid prolonged vacancies. there are tons of available units that have been sitting vacant across months. insurance rates are out of this world across the entire state of Florida, and the new property restoration laws and the monetary pressure that its putting on condominium and homeowners associations has likely made it impossible for those people to come back.
@@FamilyofSeedsCee not. Prices are fine you’re poor
Look at this talking head videos. He’s been talking about a crash for 4 years
I'm a Energy Code inspector/Rater in DFW, for both new construction Multifamily Apartments and Single Family and our company is seeing a slow down in work because builders are slowing down.
Yes but NO imminent 'crash'. The strong never crashes. GOD BLESS TEXAS 💗
People realizing Florida is hotter than hell and moving back to where they came from 😂😂😂
Now that’s a true statement I can believe… I lived in FL for last 20 years but hangout in the North west a lot of the year …
This guy makes me laugh is why I subscribe to him ….Doom and gloom everyday… 😂😂
@@Truknup where do you live now? I was thinking of moving to the PNW or northern Cali
@@pirate9154 sarasota is busier than ever...it's just quieter right now because it's not season...give it 3 months
They are actually moving to NC and SC. We call them half backs.
Houses went up 200% in SWFL. A $20k price cut ain’t gonna cut it.
Keep in mind that during the 80’s people were encouraged to save due to the interest rates. Right now there’s very little incentive to save because those who are saving are watching those who are reckless taking it in. I’ve been trying to save for a home and it’s been discouraging to watch prices continue to not budge because there’s people willing to get into a mortgage where they’re paying 40% of their income. It’s insane.
The housing market in 2024 poses difficulties due to uncertainties about the Federal Reserve's ability to curb inflation and reduce borrowing costs without adversely affecting demand for assets like homes and automobiles.
Consider shifting from real estate to stocks during severe recessions. While market volatility presents short-term trading opportunities, it's crucial to approach with caution. This isn't financial advice, but investing during such times may be a strategic move, consider adopting the services of a financial expert.
In fact, I had no prior experience or understanding when I began investing in 2020, but by the end of 2023, I had made a profit of almost $850k. All I had been doing was going by what my financial advisor had told me. This demonstrates that all you truly need is a professional to assist you; you don't even need to be a great investor or put in a lot of work.
Who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
"’Iynne Marie Stella" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Put my house on the market in Houston a week ago. Felt like we may have priced on the high side. Got a full price offer yesterday. Take these videos with a grain of salt.
Take your buyers with grain of salt. Take their money and run.
@@AW33COM ok
Congratulations ❤
The problem with Texas is property taxes, and the problem with Florida is insurance.
and property taxes too in FL!
Ive lived in Florida my whole life. Miamidade and Broward. I work for a residential contractor and there is no crash happening. People mught suggest prices have to drop, but no one is dropping them.
how’s the gc business in broward ? Been thinking of moving back but don’t know how in demand gc’s are
I agree with you. I just gained 6500. In last 30 days.
Who the hell is buying these places on an "average" income?
Thanks for going over the Denver Colorado market :)
I would be overjoyed to see the value of my house drop 120k. I paid 150k they say it's valued at 445k and my property tax is excessive. The state mandated discount didn't do much.
At least set a reasonable replacement value on your insurance. I found my house was over insured by 150k by reviewing how the policy changed over the past 4 years. I had to move to another company to see a 4k/year savings from 6k to 2k on 300k+.
why don't you sell?
@@cooledcannon . Clueless!
@@MrSupernova111 I know that's why I asked
It can't happen soon enough!! Keeps showing my home in Kissimmee going up when homes are just sitting. Everywhere you drive you see homes for sale, I've never seen anything like it. My wife came home last Saturday saying there were 3 homes next to each other all doing an open house! Even she is noticing.
I'm in Arkansas and homes are overpriced here as well. But I'm seeing price dropping slowly I'm waiting patiently to purchase one! I understand investors wanna make money but I'm not paying 240k for house you brought for 115k and then I still gotta go in there and make my own. People better get a grip asking all that money for them old outdated house.
Thanks Nick, for all your diligent investigations on historical housing data, and collating it into an understandable format.
I sold my house at the highest price point in 2021 when I was living in Austin, TX. Just waiting for prices to drop back down in the 200's or lower if it does collapse. I want to invest in a few properties.
Sounds like you're bragging "look at how smart I was". Pass . . . .
I don’t even live in the US but both you and your software deliver a compelling narrative about the direction of the market over there, absolutely love your videos! Keep it up 👍🏼
Just had a coworker and her husband buty a house with a $3900 monthly mortgage payment. She's a new graduate nurse making no more than $40/hr and her husband is a new state patrol officer. We crunched numbers and she was looking at 50% of income going out to the mortgage. Not including insurance, taxes or utilities. The numbers had me shook.
soon to be short sale
Americans and their penchant for regarding house poverty budgets as "normal". In a way it's par for the course, since there's a lot of housing snobbery in the US. There's a dynamic where 3/4 of any metro is considered beneath them, so they end up overbidding for the two or three suburbs "worthy" of living.
Using primary residence housing as a primary retirement vehicle is stupid anyways. Any vehicle you have to remove shelter over your head in order to monetize, is a false economy, given the perennial need for housing until death. Inflation always ensure any downsizing move is more expensive than living in the small house from the get go, as the smaller units get crushed with inflation, diluting down your final equity position. For most people that means not much more than 100-300K while spending more than a million in maintenance, insurance and interest (prop taxes is a wash since everybody pays that even renters) over 40 years of housing payments. In other words, they didn't save a damn thing. They'd do much better taking the smaller payment and stuffing the difference in the mattress for 40 years.
They may have inherited money or have help from family. My friend’s parents gave my friend a 100k towards a 500k house.
In a few years they will be OK
just curious, why were you crunching your coworker's number? I never talk about how much I make with my coworkers or ask them to run financials for me.
In reality Texas is building houses faster than I have ever seen. Now I don't see people moving north unless for work or family.
Fascinating insights on Texas and Florida markets! Detailed analysis on inventory and prices is crucial. Your analysis of affordability and geographical variations is really insightful.
The homeowners insurance in Florida is still a problem unless you are able to pay cash and willing to go without paying insurance.
So true
Insurance is definitely the wild card in FL and TX
You do realize the size difference between Texas and Florida. Things are fine here in Cape Coral.
I lived in TX for 2 years & hated it. I mean, don't get me wrong truly some of the best people in the whole world, but the weather was just unbearable hard to work most of the year either too hot or too cold no way to make money like that no way to survive.
Things are VERY different in South Florida, today. Insurance, HOA and property taxes will continue to increase, except for insurance, which will end, because of excessive storm losses. Only the rich, who can pay cash for everything, will be able to live in South FL.
So true! I’m in WPB and it’s unaffordable for anyone making less than 100k.
Please give us an update in phoenix! In my opinion it’s getting way worse than those 2 states.
How is it getting worse? I'm not seeing it. What I'm seeing and reading is people flooding in from CA and large construction sites everywhere, both residential and commercial. Some houses are sitting longer but eventually are sold to investors.
@@krapekkoh it’s happening. Price cuts everywhere!
@@cryptolockxrp2014 you mean 10k cut on a 410k house that was sold for 250k 3 years ago? That's not a cut! That's manipulation.
Yes there is price cut everywhere in Phoenix but those homes are already over priced. Especially east valley way over priced.
Do you want water to drink? Do not move to, or, if u are already there, leave, Arizona. The same for New Mexico.
I've only seen a very small decrease in areas near DFW, TX. Million dollar homes are still selling quickly. I think we might see another small decline and would not call it a crash. Multi billion dollar businesses are still moving here regularly. You still see an influx of out of state license plates pouring in. I dont believe it and certainly dont see it.
This is correct.
Living near DFW airport and new home selling 150K asking lot premium in Viridian
I see it here in florida. Homes are on the market 100+ days with 50k price drop from initial listings and the Zestimate is still lower than the price even after the price cuts. No one wants to spend 300k on a 3 bed 2 bath that hasnt been updated since 1990. I have about 40k saved rn as a first time home buyer with 0 debt. Waiting till the end of the year to get in. Targeting 200k home price
Tampa Saint Pete Clearwater area, prices go down a smidge but jump back up. You can not get a decent home under 200,000 unless you’re in the ghetto (or you want an older out dated condo with HOAs starting at $500 a month). Average rent for a 1br is around $1400 a month before all the add ons.
I think you will find 2 seperate markets in FL. The higher end and the lower end. The higher end will be impacted as no average local can afford them and outside demand is a lot less now. The lower end will continue to be strong because locals need a place to live. Low end demand remains high while availability is very limited.
I don't know where you live but I live in Florida and I don't a word of this is true.
I live in Tampa, FL, and did not see anything collapsing.
amen for the🌐 internet. the 1st home I pulled up on Zillow in Tampa is a $76,000 price drop.
nice property 😍for 599k 5/5 [ Tampa, FL 33610 ]. You may not see it as much because the comps /prices in Tampa are not listed at outrageous price... to begin with.
@@cinnamonstar808 Do not focus on how much the price is dropping, instead focus on how it was increased from the last few years. The median salary in Tampa is less than 60k a year, so how many people can afford a 599k home, with a mortgage of 6 to 7%? BTW a drop of 76k (less than 15%) is not “collapsing” !
@@LucyTheBichonFrise I live by the beach in Fort Lauderdale... its insanity in South Florida.
AirBnB failout + massive developers coming in the area with newer housing option is affecting our market in S.Florida.
I agree new buyers entering the market on Floridian wages is almost impossible.
Those who can sell + re-purchase may sit better in this market. Those who are coming in from California /New Yorker market prices also sit better to purchase.
but my 2/2 DUPLEX is valued at $700k
the neighborhood was so affordable 5 years ago.🏠🏡🏘 now everyone took the million dollar deal and ran. All my neighbors have sold and move out with . so turned into airbnb so are empty
the neighborhood is a shell of its old self
The wages in texas dont match up w these new prices. Its gotta correct eventually. I watch the listings very carefully and houses that would have sold quickly six months ago are sitting in n dallas. We need at least 15 percent drop
Worried about the housing market crash in Florida and Texas? People are saying it's imminent.
Prices soared, but now with rising interest rates and a slowdown, things are shaky.
It's crazy how fast things change. The market can't decide if it's hot or cold! So, what should homeowners do?
If you're thinking of selling, now might be the time before prices drop further. But predicting the market is tricky.
Exactly. Wish we knew for sure! Maybe a financial advisor could help.
Speaking of wizards, have you heard of Aaron Morgan Bell? He's a CFA who can provide some solid advice on this.
56% of income in Montana tracks. Housing prices here are absolutely insane.
Most houses there are overpriced by 50% to 100%
Uh... you may want to re-think that math.
80 percent of the US housing market is 40 to 50 percent overpriced. A soft landing is almost impossible at this point!
Completely impossible. TX and FL are 60-65% overpriced. We have a ten year economic cycle peak in 2019 with the largest bubble in history then stacked on top of it. 2007 bubble was at least an organic 3-year price surge from home values in 2003 that were in line with historic norms. In 2019, we were already borderline into bubble territory in some places. All that "free" money was like throwing dynamite on a forest fire.
Is rent over priced?? do you see the building owners lowering rent because you said you can't afford it and you're complaining it doesn't work like that homeowners will not drop the price of their homes just like the landlord is not gonna drop the price of your rent
@@enthused7591yup
@@noinhibitions7572 you were clearly not a bill-paying adult ir homeowner in the US 2004-2011 when housing prices skyrocketed and then crashed. Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
So much demand is in stuck in the system due to lack of building over the past 20 years. Some markets will loosen up and for a long while (36 months) people will take profits and new home owners will overpay the same way they did for their education.
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such taskRead more
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Jessica Lee Horst” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
@@Lewistonwilliams-f5i I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Seeing houses for sale in my CT city north of NY City dropping initial listing prices quite a bit. One home which had a Zestimate in April of $590k just listed for $ 415k. Listing says priced to sell!
Always enjoy your videos Nick, I’m in the high desert of Southern California, just the other day I got a list of price drops for my area, Hesperia, ca. one of the homes dropped 50,000 600,000 to 550,000. 13950 chestnut st. Hesperia, ca.
Still expensive
I am in Hesperia too! I wanted to buy something else here but it’s too much. I would like to move to San Antonio tx and sell here but I don’t even know if I will be able to sell quickly. 😅
Wait for things to go back to 300.000 or less .the area is getting dumpy.i work by the pilot. Tweakers breaking into to everything.
Check out altos research. Homes are selling at an average of 2.6 % below list price in Florida. It would be extremely rare to see a reduction in the examples provided on this video. Also, home values are still up year over a year according to all major sources. (FRED, Corelogic, Altos). Yes, inventory is increasing and so is Dave’s on market but we are still under four months inventory so as bad as it is, it’s not a crisis.
Home values are declining rapidly in the panhandle. Especially after the hurricanes.
Yea. I live in Pensacola. Home values are declining. Inventory popping up everywhere.
St Petersburg/Tampa inventory is absolutely skyrocketing right now. Sellers have started cutting prices, but they’re still too high. Eventually, enough people will die/divorce/lose their job, etc and won’t be able to wait a year to sell their home. These sales will drive down the comps for the entire area.
it's weird market here right now. either places are on market for 180+ days, or selling within the week. strange times for sure.
@@kernzilla I'm seeing that very nice NEW or fresh construction more expensive houses selling very quick, but anything below 1 million stays for much longer
@@jamesdeininger3759 delusional thinking but go on LOL. Rents due on the 1st
@@rdee7406 Which part is delusional? I already own a home, and I’ve watched my home’s value drop by at least 25% since the peak in mid-2022.
At the absolute top, mine probably could’ve sold for about $1.2M. A similar home in my neighborhood sold for $1.5M in a week.
Now, our neighbor’s homes have been sitting for nearly a year, and have dropped from about $1.3M to $1M. Buyer interest has completely dried up.
Rental rates are coming down too.
We’re outgrowing our home, so I’m definitely happy to see prices coming down. Remember, it took nearly 5+ years to reach the bottom of the market during the GFC, which started in 2007 and went down until 2012! 🤯
Just be patient, and Yes, your rent is due on the 1st
@@kernzilla - It just depends on the initial listing price. If they’re priced correctly, it gets lapped up immediately.
But, if they put it up too high at first, then it’s sitting, and those that are both greedy and want to sell will slowly drop the price every few weeks or so. Desperation slowly grows on these listings.
Potential buyers are keenly aware of everything available, and they’re seeing this. They’re choosing to wait it out, and I’m happy for them.
in Florida is the combination of high insurance premiums and people moving into multifamily housing in town centers
My family makes maybe 75k a year before taxes. We are nowhere close to being able to afford a house in Florida. Rent is just as ridiculous here in Clay County.
FL isnt for you.... move to another SEC state.
@@breadnaut3087 and unfortunately no one cares about your family and your hard life. So find solutions and ways to make more money 💵
Best luck
Same in manatee and Sarasota counties
Im a single 25yo in PA making 50 a year. Im never gonna be able to buy a house. Im going to have to force myself to get a gf just to be able to buy a house 😂
@@R0CKtheR3D a gf might be the reason you lose the house 😂
My advice is that you learn skills that pays more money
Also price cut rate doesn't matter what matters is the actual price cut amount. People are selling houses that went up 100% in value and they're cutting their prices by $5,000 every 3 months.
Yall keep talking about this crash for 2 years now but prices are still climbing at least here in DFW
It's almost 4 years actually.
Not happening on Long Island. Homes are not dropping that much. To much $ here because of the city. These people don’t care. They spend..
I dunno. I'm in one of those FL markets. My Zillow estimated market value just keeps going up. My taxes are still going up. My insurance is going up. All in remarkable fashion. My neighbor just sold his home for market value. I'm just not seeing any real and significant change yet.
So I guess you don’t consider the cost of ownership skyrocketing as a change ? Okay then , keep waiting while the ‘flood waters’ are rising.
Your instinct is correct, that Bradenton listing does say vacation rental 👍
Decreasing the fed funds rate to 0 isn't going to save the housing market. It was near zero in 2021. When the fed announced they were going to start hiking interest rates, everyone who could afford to buy a house at 3-4% mortgage rates bought a house in this period. My sister and husband bought during this "grace" period. Now they are completely tapped out and they are skipping a summer vacation this year. Dropping the fed funds rate to zero is not going to change their situation, and it won't change similar situations for millions of Americans.
Dropping the rate is what created this situation. Landlords doubled their portfolios due to zero rates.
The first people to cut their prices are the smart ones. Get out while you can. The price cuts of today are the comps for tomorrow and buyers will want prices below those comps to buy
Pre-Plandemic homes in my NH retirement were selling for around $150K. Today several are on the market in the $450K range but they are not moving. A lesbian couple from Cambridge, MA panic purchased the home next to mine during the lockdowns & paid $550K and have only been here twice.
lol thats actually funny. Not sure why including their sexuality was important but ok boomer.
@@davidd6660 Who says you can't include sexuality.
@@davidd6660that’s actually not funny….
Florida insurance is pushing this as well.
I'm in Michigan, and the housing market here over the past 7-8 years has been unprecedented. Houses that were purchased for $130K in 2015 are now going for $590K. These are tiny, poorly constructed 950-square-foot homes in quiet, mediocre neighborhoods. Meanwhile, nicer, average-sized homes in better neighborhoods that were over $300K a decade ago are now selling for $750K+. It's wild.
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
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The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
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Taking the good with the bad, but overall still loving FL❤
Prices still too high in Florida and texas..keep dropping the price
they will. this has just gotten started
At least once or twice a week I get an email with reduced price on properties in Lakeland FL
This is what happens when you're greedy.
its cause everyone is leaving
@@SA-hz1rs Yup. Not leaving physically. Foreign buyers are exiting the USA real estate markets. Foreign buyers are exiting most USA asset markets.
When who is greedy?
@@scottmcloughlin4371 500,000 left florida in 2022. We dont know how many left in 2023 yet. Im guessing its simiilar. no jobs in florida. People found out the hard way
@@thomass789You are
You don’t think rate cuts will bring buyers into the market in the Northeast? Different dynamic here than in FL & TX
So, all the People that moved out of California and New York to Texas, Florida, Arizona, and other States, are many of them moving back to California & New York now?
Nick is 1000% right ! prices are imploding even in NAPLES
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#1 is Bremerton which is a military town with a shipyard & submarine base. Either investors are getting out &/or soldiers are getting shipped out(?)
I’ve been waiting for the crash since I sold my house in 2017 🫣💔 I regret that daily…. Beautiful luxury home for 1,200 a month. Now I’m paying twice as much in half as much space In a rented townhouse… ya don’t know what ya don’t know…
you could not have predicted the plandemic or the massive money printing and artificially low interest rates
My cousin ended up making the same horrific mistake , after having listened to guys like Nick.
Price cuts don't mean much when the original list price was trying to set new, higher comps.
Aside from that, the data looks promising. It always takes sustained pressure to get prices down. I think you're right in that it's going to take a couple years to see real decline.
"A couple years". Is that on top of the four years he's already spent saying the same thing? 🤣
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc it will happen when it happens :)
Property tax is wild
I'm one of those buyers waiting on the sidelines. 6.5% ain't going to get me to spring.
Me either. Prices really need to drop for me to consider purchasing.
Cash buyer. If prices don't drop by thirty percent, I sit out.
@@christaylor8337same
I got a 6.875% rate.
You can buy new construction at about 5%
This isn't cherry-picking at all. Let's only pick TX and FL like that signifies the entire USA market. Anything for views I guess
Where Florida is concerned, the biggest driver of homes available is insurance costs. Both home and auto. The other problem is that beginning with the pandemic demand for housing soared causing prices to soar as well. This caused property tax increases. So, between higher property tax and increased insurance costs for both home and auto makes Florida one of the least affordable states to live.
Yes!
I don't know what you're talking about my property price almost double and still going up
The inventory in NY suffolk county on long Island is slowly going up
The taxes are crazy out there
No one with eyes believed their was a supply issue, one problem is builders were not building affordable starter homes or single elder downzing sized homes. the other was investors flooding the housing marker. of course intrest rates and other housing costs knock virtually out of the market.
The price for lumber has also declined rapidly. Currently mills are producing less lumber because demand is falling. This may be an indication of homebuilders slowing down because no one is buying new homes in some larger markets. Yes, new housing starts in the last report are still strong but those are backward looking numbers. We will get a better indication of the direction of new homes with the next two reports.
Good info! Thanks
Home values are declining in every state.
We got 30k saved up I'm not jumping in until the rates drop below 4%.. it's actually way cheaper for us to be renting right now we're only paying $650 a month for a three bedroom house
They're trying to give away condos in FLA
they will be treated like timeshares after all the new rules kick in....
i think goverment will have to take some liability on property insurance here in Florida, many people cant even afford it.
Why do I feel like the builders of apartments know that ppl are going to get kicked out of their homes due to property tax spikes and that’s why they are building so many apartments right now and slowing down building actual homes
a lot of the property developers you're talking about began building these properties out when the market had bottomed out after COVID and many were forced to suspend construction projects. the permits on completing those homes are just happening to come due now and thus are being made available for purchase, which will only continue to over-saturate inventory and drive prices to fall further.
Im so GLAD I left florida.
Texas and Florida are brutally hot. Houston has 250k people without power after hurricane Beryl. That was a week ago. No AC at this time of year in either place is unbearable. It doesn't cool off at night.
Bremerton and Tampa are both located near big military bases. I am on a HUD / foreclosure list for Lacey and Olympia and I am getting multiple listings after years of only getting one or two a year. Located near a military base and state capitol.
Still over pricing , with florida income
These idiots that paid 450k for a 1200sf box in port st lucie will end up short selling or at the foreclosure auction
just like last time
Why? A mortgage payment for $450k at 3% is $1,897. The mortgage payment for $250k at 8% is $1,834. So the idiots who bought up all the houses when rates were low are paying an extra $70 a month.
@@tobyk5149in the military they warn generals about fighting the last war
@@TheRelevantUnknown While your math is correct, their $1879 mortgage payment isn’t as lovely, if they have incurred sizable insurance, taxes and HOA increases year over year since their time of purchase.
@@TheRelevantUnknown Yeah.... even though @ 3% the payment delivers a bigger chunk to the principle, thye're paying taxes and insurance @ double the cost. which has money escaping the other way out.
HOA, insurance, and utilities inflation will cut into the minimal mortgage decreases from the rate cuts were expecting to see this year.
You're really far off. Most places in Florida are doing just fine. Some areas, like Punta Gorda, are down. But you're making broad general statements.
Have fun holding that bag of crap lol fucking boomer
Not seeing it at all on Zillow etc. Houses are still selling 100k over 2 years ago as soon as they hit the market here in Florida.
Lots of empty homes for sale in Austin - hopefully they all moved back to CA
No. We don’t want them back. It’s overcrowded in California.
Now thats not going to happen...Austin at its highest is still more affordable than Cali
No Elon to the rescue. Moving more to TEXAS. 🇺🇲
Blah, blah, blah California, waah..wash... so tired of hearing that shit.
In That turquoise house in Bradenton description about halfway down it said currently used as a successful vacation rental. I must have sharp eyes for it cause I sold vacation STR homes in the Orlando area for 4 years lol.