If you want to solve a problem or make a prediction, the Delphi Method may be the technique you need. Thank you for watching - please do subscribe to the channel and, to join my community, sign-up at onlinepmcourses.com/assets440251/the-onlinepmcourses-newsletter/
Thanks for the video. I am conducting research for my PhD and my research design is qualitative Policy Delphi Research Design. I stumbled upon this video. I am in the proposal stage of my dissertation. Throughout my research, I found the Delphi research method is valuable. Even though Delphi has been around a long time, it is not used by many.
Thank you Dr. Clayton for explaining the Delphi method so beautifully. I am currently conducting a Delphi survey, and I have a slight confusion. Some participating experts have not answered all the qualitative questions in the first round (left some of the questions blank). In this case, can I include them in the consecutive rounds of the survey? Or is there any restrictions against including them? Thank you again and I hope you will answer my question
I don't think there is a set solution to your issue: compliance with the process is part of the process! So, you will need to read the politics of the situation. Your options are: - re-circulate the questions to the people who skipped them with a polite request that they respond to the question with their best assessment, to protect the integrity of the process - as above, but make the requests personally, taking a stance of curiosity about why they did not complete the questions. There may be something to learn - do not circulate limited responses to the questions concerned, and include them again in a second round with a clear request that they are answered - circulate the limited answers, and note the circumstances, so that second-round responses are aware of the limitations - drop the delinquent panelists (and maybe replace them)
Thank you Dr. Mike for this amazing video. I have one question, when reaching out to experts, I shall not inform one experts about the names of other experts, otherwise we can't avoid bias, right?
Rami, I don't think there is a hard and fast rule here. But I do agree that, if you think that knowing who else is in the group will create a bias, it is wise to keep the identities secret. However, what would then be good practice would be to treat every member of your panel in the same way. You should not tell some, but not others.
Hi, thank-you for such a clear and informative video. I will be using this method in research. My only question is do I need to seek consent to take part in the expert panel (ie through a signed consent form) for participants?
I think people need to know they are part of the panel. Whether you need signed consent will depend on the research protocols for your institution, department, and for your project. I would discuss with your research supervisor.
I think you're asking for the details of the people who developed the Delphi Technique. I don't know - it was developed within the Rand Corporation in the 1950s - a time and a place where a lot of high-security US Government research was conducted. Wikipedia names Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher, but I have not pursued its references.
AI will be able to detect patterns and trends and therefore project from them. It's not something that LLMs like ChatGPT are designed for, but specialized AI tools are already predicting compounds with specific physical or chemical properties.
I'm not completely clear what you are asking, but I'll try to help. 1. The Delphi Method can never validate anything. It can pool expert knowledge and insight - and so lend credence to an idea or identify its weaknesses. 2. If, by 'conceptual papers' you mean articles or technical papers about new concepts, yes and no. Delphi is great for seeing forward, but only where the future is likely to be an extrapolation from current trends. Where discontinuous changes and paradigm shifts are at play, the Delphi Method is no better that any other form of foresight - and arguably intrinsically weak.
That's not what the Delphi method is for and, without some significant intervention, not what you can achieve. If that's what you want to do, however, it's on you. But it will have poor consequences for you and you project.
Manipulation is used to get the people to all agree the way you want them to. This technique leaves the people believing that they came up with the answer/idea all on their own. It’s what was used to get people believing this global warming BS. Rosa was a very smart woman. Nothing got past her. She was able to see through bullshitt. Plus, she was afraid to call people on it. She was the most aware liberal I’ve every known. She even confronts liberals, and anyone who needs it. We needs more people like her in our government. We need more people like her everywhere. She was an intelligent and honest woman who feared no one. RIP Rosa
![ถามตรงๆ กับ อาจตุพร ทำไม ประเทศไทย ใครเป็นนายก ก็โดนด่า พอออกเเล้วคนคิดถึง!!?? l [Nickynachat]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/3YFLMXxBGAs/mqdefault.jpg)
If you want to solve a problem or make a prediction, the Delphi Method may be the technique you need.
Thank you for watching - please do subscribe to the channel and, to join my community, sign-up at onlinepmcourses.com/assets440251/the-onlinepmcourses-newsletter/
I love this method. Learned it in college as an IE student and have used it successfully for the past 20 years.
It's great to hear of a happy user!
Brilliant explanation. Stress relieved 😅
I'm glad. Thank you.
I'm here because of research, and now I understand what my adviser told me. Thanks for this video, now I'm informed about it!
Good to have you here, and glad it was helpful!
Thanks for the video. I am conducting research for my PhD and my research design is qualitative Policy Delphi Research Design. I stumbled upon this video. I am in the proposal stage of my dissertation. Throughout my research, I found the Delphi research method is valuable. Even though Delphi has been around a long time, it is not used by many.
Great to hear of someone using Delphi at high level. I agree it's under-used. Public policy could do with more of this and less ideology!
Thank you. New to PM, and it helped me to understand the concept of the Delphi model.
Fabulous! Plenty more basic PM content here for you.
saw you after a long time on my feed
I've been here all along!
Excellent summary. Many thanks.
You're very welcome.
Great explanation. Thanks
You're welcome.
thank you for your kind explanation 😊😊😊
You're welcome 😊
Thank you Mike for this excellent teaching! Appreciate this
My pleasure!
Thanks a lot Dr Mike for the valuable content 🙂
Your very welcome.
Thank you for explaining!
You're welcome!
Thank you Dr. Clayton for explaining the Delphi method so beautifully. I am currently conducting a Delphi survey, and I have a slight confusion. Some participating experts have not answered all the qualitative questions in the first round (left some of the questions blank). In this case, can I include them in the consecutive rounds of the survey? Or is there any restrictions against including them? Thank you again and I hope you will answer my question
I don't think there is a set solution to your issue: compliance with the process is part of the process! So, you will need to read the politics of the situation. Your options are:
- re-circulate the questions to the people who skipped them with a polite request that they respond to the question with their best assessment, to protect the integrity of the process
- as above, but make the requests personally, taking a stance of curiosity about why they did not complete the questions. There may be something to learn
- do not circulate limited responses to the questions concerned, and include them again in a second round with a clear request that they are answered
- circulate the limited answers, and note the circumstances, so that second-round responses are aware of the limitations
- drop the delinquent panelists (and maybe replace them)
Thank you Dr. Mike for this amazing video. I have one question, when reaching out to experts, I shall not inform one experts about the names of other experts, otherwise we can't avoid bias, right?
Rami, I don't think there is a hard and fast rule here. But I do agree that, if you think that knowing who else is in the group will create a bias, it is wise to keep the identities secret. However, what would then be good practice would be to treat every member of your panel in the same way. You should not tell some, but not others.
Thank you
You're welcome
Hi, thank-you for such a clear and informative video. I will be using this method in research. My only question is do I need to seek consent to take part in the expert panel (ie through a signed consent form) for participants?
I think people need to know they are part of the panel. Whether you need signed consent will depend on the research protocols for your institution, department, and for your project. I would discuss with your research supervisor.
Thank u
Welcome
Hi. Only one question. The CV's of the experts shall be referred to the paper?
I think you're asking for the details of the people who developed the Delphi Technique.
I don't know - it was developed within the Rand Corporation in the 1950s - a time and a place where a lot of high-security US Government research was conducted. Wikipedia names Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher, but I have not pursued its references.
How does artificial intelligence can improve the Delphi Method?
AI will be able to detect patterns and trends and therefore project from them. It's not something that LLMs like ChatGPT are designed for, but specialized AI tools are already predicting compounds with specific physical or chemical properties.
and one more. The Delphi method can be used to validate conceptual papers?
I'm not completely clear what you are asking, but I'll try to help.
1. The Delphi Method can never validate anything. It can pool expert knowledge and insight - and so lend credence to an idea or identify its weaknesses.
2. If, by 'conceptual papers' you mean articles or technical papers about new concepts, yes and no. Delphi is great for seeing forward, but only where the future is likely to be an extrapolation from current trends. Where discontinuous changes and paradigm shifts are at play, the Delphi Method is no better that any other form of foresight - and arguably intrinsically weak.
Thank you very much
@@paschaliskagias9675 You're welcome.
im here from alex jones!!
Welcome!!
Who is Alex Jones?
Why are you whispering?
Umm - I'm not. Turn up the volume or check your connections.
Manipulating an outcome the way you want it to be.
That's not what the Delphi method is for and, without some significant intervention, not what you can achieve. If that's what you want to do, however, it's on you. But it will have poor consequences for you and you project.
@@Onlinepmcoursessee rosa koire vids. It's being used for evil
Manipulation is used to get the people to all agree the way you want them to. This technique leaves the people believing that they came up with the answer/idea all on their own. It’s what was used to get people believing this global warming BS. Rosa was a very smart woman. Nothing got past her. She was able to see through bullshitt. Plus, she was afraid to call people on it. She was the most aware liberal I’ve every known. She even confronts liberals, and anyone who needs it. We needs more people like her in our government. We need more people like her everywhere. She was an intelligent and honest woman who feared no one.
RIP Rosa
Your videos deserve way more views. Do you have courses on LinkedIn?
Thank you, Orla. I have courses at onlinepmcourses.com
I believe the limited view is because not many people use the Delphi method. It is a valuable research method, but not many people know about it.