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Brexit's economic impact: early evidence and future prospects
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 มี.ค. 2021
- Discussing the early evidence of the impact of Brexit on UK-EU trade, and consider how the performance of the economy will affect British politics.
Discussants:
Stephanie Flanders, Senior Executive Editor, Bloomberg and Head, Bloomberg Economics.
Anna Jerzewska, Founder, Trade and Borders.
Thomas Sampson, Associate, Centre for Economic Performance.
John Springford, Deputy Director, Centre for European Reform.
Chair:
Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe.
If you want to know more about the Centre for Economic Performance please visit their website at: cep.lse.ac.uk/
For more about UK in a Changing Europe, visit: ukandeu.ac.uk/
And for more about the Centre for European Reform, visit: www.cer.eu/
Other links mentioned in the event:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/1...
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-uk-economy-...
The best part of this debate is the silence of the presenter and the contributors whilst one is talking.
In part, it's because this isn't a debate, but a colloquium. All the participants stick to the facts, and hence agree 90% of the time. So, they have little incentive to be rude interrupting each other.
If they have had a mandate to present 'both parts' of the debate (i.e. true-tellers and liars on equal footing), I can assure you the debate would've been much dirtier. In part, because you can't defend Brexit with facts and politeness. You need to lie, interrupt, get it personal, etc.
@@EuroUser1 Too right! Brexit is really an ideology unsupported with anything tangible.
I used to regularly order items from UK, things like books, games, dvds, electronics, shoes, clothes etc... If you live in a smaller EU country the local retailers often have a narrow selection, so you kinda have to order certain items from overseas. Ordering from UK used to be the obvious choice because of the English language, now I buy from German sites instead because of high import fees. German retailers are great, it is just more difficult to deal with because of the language barrier.
They speak English very well - no problem at all.
@@gohfi True I was mainly thinking about that navigating sites can be a bit tricky if it is only in German. Though that does not seem to be much a problem either, as most larger German online retailers have language options.
Same for me i live in Greenland, under danish small Economy.
@@awolsam Also modern browsers can translate websites.
UK economy is gonna collapse becuase of brexit...
I´m a swedish hobby dartplayer. I used to order equipments from the UK 5-6 times a year. This last time, same order as before Brexit, the cost was much higher and it took a long time to get the goods. So i will buy within the EU from now.
Buy from us !
@N 7 Why would you stop buying from Ikea? Out of spite? He's listing 2 very normal reasons for changing the country he's ordering from: costs and delivery time. Those are 2 consequences of the UK's choice to become a third country, you can't blame Ikea for that.
Yeah since we have left the EU Amazon International is available to UK citizens, we can order from all over the world now its quite impressive how much variety there is.
Buy from wherever you want
@@simoneschouten4329
What's wrong with being a third world country?
I live in the EU. Today I tried to buy an item from amazon uk costing £20 but at check out they added £6 import tax.So I didn't go ahead.
What on earth did you expect? It would be the same if you imported from the USA!
That’s down to the country you live in as they decide what to tax you on imports
@@dsmclark Remember, your income comes from EXports. Other country’s customs hurt YOU!
@@khankrum1 She can get the product from 27 other countries. Where do you get her money from? 🙄
@@gohfi well it doesn’t really it punishes the person buying it. They can just buy it else where and if they can’t will have to pay what’s being asked. Who ever was selling the item would have paid duty on it when it came into the uk and then vat on top (which you can claim back if you’re registered but then have to charge on when you sell). £6 on a £20 item is 30% duty which seems a bit far fetched if you ask me. That was probably a delivery charge as well but as people who are pro eu just seem to want to find stuff to moan about and can’t seem to get over the fact a country voted out of something it didn’t want to be in. The eu, if they are putting 30% duty on some tat sold on Amazon, are just showing how childish they really are. There has always been a disdain shown toward the English from our fellow European cousins and it go unnoticed.
Small one man band here about £500 sales lost to brexit so far , I'm just one of an invisible army that nobody counts.
Got your fellow countrymen to thank for it. Or maybe you are unpatriotic and do not get the benefits of brexit. Take your pick
@@lucius1976 unpatriotic! Lol what a fanny you will see soon enough the consequences for brexit when the uk union breaks up.
@@davelocktalk i am looking forward to that day. A day well deserved
I’m one of them too....
My sales in the UK are booming........starting to manufacture components and taking on more staff.........still trading well with Germany as we now have a price advantage over our competitors in Turkey and Greece.
Buying more raw materials from UK manufacturers as there is less hassle and the quality and service is better....so far.
Listen to experts, not with politicians... my humble advice..
HI Mr BLue Green. I respectfully suggest that "experts" are often just academics passing off their theories, in the form of computer models, as evidence to journos and the public who are incapable of asking the correct questions of the authors. Covid/BSE/ Remainder/ client change extrapolations stat's and Lysenko anyone?
@@chopsandarchie7015 everyone is entitled to his/her own opinion, but they were not called experts without any reason, otherwise we will listen to anyone who has his own opinion.
@@mr.bluegreen3696 lol. Who needs to think when those with appellations can do it for you
There ain't no experts, haven't you learned that yet?
@@mr.bluegreen3696 Experts don't agree on anything.
Where are February's 2021 Trade Figures? Drop of £5.4 billion in January. (April 09)
They have just been released, flat line effectively (0.4% growth on Jan or similar)
As an EU citizen, I don't have an iota of feelings of sorrows about brexit or brexiteers as they deserve everything that will come their way..
Is the general opinion where you live that there are 10's of millions of heartbroken passionate remainers here in UK, and you feel sorry for us? Or are we just viewed as Brexit island now and EU citizens dont talk/think/realise how many remainers there are here?
@@Joe-fn9mi the problem is countries are seen abroad through their representatives. You got Johnson Gove raab and frost....
Don’t worry, we don’t want your pity
@@ldnstan2454 You do... there's been a few stories now of Brexiters wanting Government compensation for damaging their businesses or livelihood.
@@Joe-fn9mi Where I live, the Netherlands, people used to feel sorry for the remainers. But after the election where BoJo won majority, people felt like Brexit wasn't an mistake by the uniformed because of a corrupt lying government, but really what the people want.
Now most people feel sorry that the UK isn't a democracy, with the centuries outdated FPTP.
Also, no one I know wants to have the UK back in the EU: "let them fix their country first, then we'll see" is what I hear most.
Wow fascinating video if only this could somehow be on the BBC or get a mention in the Daily Express.
I just wish Boris Johnson had been part of this video debate, I remember him saying on Dec 24th how his fantastic Free Trade deal could even increase our trade with the EU. What planet is he living on, he just cannot have had any idea just how good borderless trade is for the movement of all goods.
Or he doesn't care either way as long as he gets what he wants, more likely.
Boris is a lazy Narcissist. Magical Thinking. Reality is what he WANTS it to be, & will ever take responsibility nor care about the damage he has wrought.
UK bought more from EU than it sold. It was EU that benefited by selling to UK.
But EU is anti-free-trade. EU forces its members to buy from each other by using taxes and regulations to prevent global free trade. Germany created EU to force weaker European countries to buy German, instead of, say, Chinese.
UK is now free to buy from anyone, including Germany and its colonies (aka EU). UK is not imposing import duties...
But Germans are pissed off that UK slipped out of its little empire, again. So Germans are making their own people suffer by taxing UK imports. Their problem.
UK can and will trade with the world, freely, un-shackled by EU closed-trading-bloc rules. Wait for the pandemic to be over. Watch UK fly, and Germany flounder.
@@joeschmoe21 You're in deep mate. There's no hope for you.
I just don't understand the Brexiteer infatuation with European contries "failing". As if that's good news for the UK if it were actually to happen. It's just all hatred and bitterness as far as I can tell.
@@joeschmoe21 you are deluded. The UK has shot itself in the foot. What happens to the British children who now can’t live, or study in Europe ? Britain is finished.
Let's wait for the end of furlough. This is when Brexit is going to show its face.
lol really ?
@@TheSteelweasel yes.
aye..go get a milkshake ;)
Scotland is testing the waters to be independent and have asked advise how to move forvard,Meetings have been done in Norway ,Denmark and Sweden,That will have an impact on The Economy
Hi
Actually I don’t think it will , initially the Pound would drop, but Scotland has a small economy and pays less tax per head than England, and receives more money per head from the treasury, in fact England would be better off, would relocate a lot of civil service jobs south, and would have very few Labour Party governments in future. From England’s perspective it would be no bad thing, but many of us are emotionally attached to the union, as am I.
Scotland, like Europe, will always trade with the rest of the UK. Not even Napoleon could prevent Europe from trading with Britain. Political aggravation exists on this front of course, but London is already growing again. Its hard to marry people's 'gloom' with reality. Let's not forget that Britain is an archipelago: the Brits have never just sat on their islands; they go out into the world and make trade. Europe now has a diminished global center as a result of losing London. Europe has no replacement. The Brits will do fine once they have adjusted, and here they can do so quicker than the EU. Meanwhile ... Germany continues to hold the EU back. Scottish 'independence' is also prevented by the majority of Unionists that may prevent another referendum for many many years to come.
@@davidgray3321 20% of UK agricultural exports in value is scotch. Add to that the most of the UK’s fishing grounds and oil production plus the best possible circumstances for renewable energy ( hydro electric and wind) a good industrial base suggests the figures the government gives might not be correct or at very least incomplete.
@@dutchuncle3310 Good luck then it should be a breeze.
@@teodora7219 there is nothing I can learn from this statement. I can only suppose you have nothing to add. Your message has no reference and is meaningless without qualification, since you havent qualified what you mean we can only assume you have nothing to add. Bless.
I got hit with over 60euro tax/import charges when buying from UK-based shop today. Been buying several times a year from that shop.
I'm NOT going to shop from the UK again.. this sucks.
Is that lady crazy. The Tories aren't going to "divide up the pie more fairly"!!!! All they know is austerity, nationalism and cronyism
True, I voted for Brexit , just to kick The Government in the Boll*cks, I hate them that much , I haven't got a clue about Europe , and there are thousands like me,
And nimbyism.
@Ace Adonis are you actually telling me to believe what bojo says....don't make me laugh 🤣
@Ace Adonis I'm guessing you believe in the big world reset and that the vaccines have micro chips in thrm
@Ace Adonis yet you said that there is a Technocratic Dictatorship being introduced. Yet don't believe in anything. Not sure I really get this tbh.
Can anyone name 5 actual benefits that are currently benefitting our economy (Not including Sovereignty as we already had that before leaving EU as has been demonstrated by European countries since we dropped out )
No I didnt think so
yep - loads. deals with over 60 countries will eventually reduce costs, increase investment, reduce unemployment etc.
@simon barter lol I did say "currently" not in the distant future of never never land - following Bozo Johnson's brilliant Brexshit deal our fishermen cant sell any bi-valve , mussels etc etc AT ALL so The Bozo has already made UK fishermen redundant small businesses can't export anything because of the costs , all the Tory owned businesses have moved their Headquarters to the EU resulting in job losses in UK and giving those lost jobs to EU workers the UK is going backwards under this Tory Government. The Liz Truss 'deal' with Japan leaves us WORSE off than when we were in the EU single market PILE THE BODIES HIGH JOHNSON SAID AND HE HAS DONE 127,000 EXCESS DEATHS REMINDS ME OF AUSCHWITZ - GENOCIDE The Tories/Conservatives dont care whether you live or die
I mean the vast majority of those deals are roll overs will little change. These big deals (US, India, Aus etc) Boris said would be so easy are turning out to be a little more difficult now. Turns out negotiating trade as a bloc 8x the size of the U.K. is advantageous.
Nick we didn’t have sovereignty, by simply signing the Lisbon treaty we forfeited it. If you want to put that matter to bed, research “the merchant shipping act 1988”
Moving on, to address your question “can anyone name 5 actual benefits... ?” A good sense of humour is exactly what is needed during this difficult time, so I thank you for making me laugh 😂 Obviously we should listen to biased experts and not apply common sense when considering the economic impact of Covid. Also even without that crisis, to judge the consequences of leaving the Eu after just 5 months would be moronic to say the least. Can anyone name 28 negative factors that can directly and imperatively be proven to be responsible for hindering our economy now. ? Why so many people have a lack of confidence in our great country is mind boggling ! Worse still is that some people seem to be willing and hoping we fall !
If Britain is such a terrible country, why not just emigrate ?
All the EU countries have Sovereignty
You still haven't named a benefit lol
Johnson and his pack of self-serving incompetants have destroyed Fishing , Farming , Manufacturing and even the Bankers are moving in droves to the EU with the loss of tens of thousands of UK jobs boosting the EU job market all the trade deals are 'cut & paste ' leaving us worse off than when we were in the single market including the Japan deal
No checks are being made on goods entering GB leaving us ripe for smuggling
The UK is run by a bunch of crooks and liars lining their own pockets
I cant afford wallpaper at £840 a roll so I will be emigrating to the EU / Italy to be exact
Johnson let millions of people enter the country bringing the covid virus and the borders are still open letting in the South African and Indian variants - Johnson himself was a Superspreader resulting in 150,000 excess Hancock seeded the virus into nursing homes .The UK is on the decline with no prospect of recovery. The Tories have increased the National Debt to well in excess of 2 Tri££ion pounds £2,000,000,000,000 the UK is Bankrupt due to this cheating lying Tory Government
There seems to be some confusion in the comments section about which side this video is on. When you hear the Bloomberg saying that the EU will loose out in the long run, you can absolutely place her. And when you hear the trade-woman you can also hear what she thinks.
So really this a mix of professionals that are interpreting their data to slightly fit their unconscious bias.
She said Europe would loose out in the long run, as in moving economic activity from London to New York.
Disagree, I think they all bent over backwards to not show a bias. Facts are uncomfortable some times ...
No Unicorns took part in the making of this video
But many were hurt and had to be humanely destroyed.
Brexit's economic impact: early evidence and future prospects
Is this fact finding on the trading relationship of third country with EU?
This is what UK wanted, UK wanted to trade with EU under third country rules.
EU is a third country.
U.K. is a first country.
@@strofikornego9408 Who cares! UK carrier is going to S China sea, please stop by HK and say hello!
Curious if anyone could link a good resource that follows up how did it go as things have only globally gotten kind of worse.
Edit googled Cer Brexit trade effect and Cer release a monthly update for the trailing months so last released in July 21 for may 21
A drop in 40 percent very likely means that a large part of those importers have covered their markets looking for other providers. This must be quite a corcerning aspect because they are not likely to return.
The saddest part of Brexit is the English Brexiters who think that the British Establishment knows how to govern them properly or gives a damn about them. A lot of the Establishment are self-serving, tax-dodging leeches who manufacture English opinion thru their allies in the media. Then there is the phantom of self-determination in a massively interconnected world. The EU was investing in British regions because Westminster had, and has, no intention of doing so, and it gave us the 48 hour week against the wishes of our current givernment.
Can you re meet and discuss how Europe's trade with the Uk and how it has effected them?
@Zuurker U That just tells me the EU is being either deliberately punitive or shows it up for the bureaucratic protectionist nonsense that it is. The UK border is NOT open, we're just being grown up. The EU couldn't even be grown up about its vaccine incompetence and went straight to trying to commandeer a private company's facilities and taking them to court when they haven't a leg to stand on.
Pathetic.
@Zuurker U
UK = open for business with the world
EU = closed for business, acts like a woman scorned
@Zuurker U This whole load of waffle you've just puked up makes zero sense, typical Eurofanatic, you cannot conceive that any country does not want to be part of the EU, it's weird. Like a cult. So enjoy your cult, eventually you'll end up at Waco with your fellow fanatics.
@@mogznwaz did you even read his reply? Or check if what he was saying was true? True Brexiteer - mouth open, ears covered, brain 90% non functional.
@Zuurker U No you just made it very clear you have no idea what you're talking about.
The biggest challenge facing the world is the climate, and Brexit was unfortunately a big step backwards. The time of enlightenment is definitely over and so are we.
A deeper question might well be to consider what impact brexit will have on the environment. Probably very bad, as one of the main intentions was to increase global pollution by buying things from New Zealand that we currently buy from the EU.
Brexit was, in fact, a deliberate attack on the climate.
@@ohgosh5892 The sad thing is that those who voted for will never realize their mistake, they will only find new scapegoats why their lives have become miserable.
@@dennislindqvist8443 A great many of the bigoted racist pensioners will die, long before the long-term impact of their selfishness and evil is really clear. For the younger ones, whose future has been destroyed, they will see this every day, for the rest of their lives.
The UK will most likely break up on the back of this, and the tory party will likely not survive, so there will, at least, be a couple of long-term benefits, but the price to be paid will be colossal.
It would have been much better had the Tories not lied about the Scots independence vote, Scotland would have seceded, and joined the EU, and the Tories would never have got away with Brexit, which by then would have been E&Wexit, which sounds about as sh1te as it really is anyway.
It may depend on the sector. There will be some retrenchment and simplification of supply chains, some import substitution, and changing consumer patterns as a result of tariffs, etc, so to me it is not clear that there will be environmental costs. Actually I suspect the opposite will happen. There was far too much emphasis on old school growth = good, important and dynamic in the discussion. Structural changes in the economy will take place and many of them will have positive environmental impacts, with a post growth mentality becoming more prevalent. The great reset, levelling up, and other on message cliches are laughable, but there is some kernel there. I don't see much evidence yet that we are slowly moving to a post consumer economy but it will happen and the UK is arguably well placed to move towards that early.
@@simon7790 Bollox. There is nothing in brexit which will simplify supply chains.
The rest of your drivel if based on that bollox claim. Do try harder, brexiter.
So far your commentators are blaming the government for the Brexit hit to the economy. Whereas the government blames everyone else for not ceasing the opportunities from Brexit. What opportunities and what benefits ? Ministers cant seem to find any. Everything seems to be teething troubles. Business leaders are losing confidence in a fumbling government which does not seem to have any answers.
Yep, the Tories told them "don't worry about it" for each problem, and left them all hanging
After listening all the arguments I have a question. What was Brexit good for?
Exiting Europe.
That's all we wanted mate. And we did it.
@@applesandpairs2161 congratulation, even though I don’t know to what.
@@jansokol6168 well that's kind of irrelevant mate. When someone leaves a relationship do you quiz them about why and where they're going?
@@applesandpairs2161 i appreciate the (slim) odds of you being a real boris.
1:05:17 what is the point?????? To rejoin makes no sense at all unless the UK will get back what it lost, and it never will. It will also have to adopt the Euro for which it previously had a permanent opt out clause. The question is extremely silly.
What's the TRUE inflation rate ?
There is a Veterinarian defficency in UK. High university costs. Pre brexit it was cheaper and easier to take in Veterinarians from EU since non EU citizens were expensive with visa costs. Now a Veterinary practice or a chain has to pay above 2000pounds for a one Vet. And the vets them selves has to pay a fee. Most of the good vets in EU doesn't want to pay that and there is no need to because they are financially stabilized. They'll just miss a learning opportunity or work and travel fun. Now many practices are suffering under this less work force problem. It is same for the human medicine sector and I think to some other sectors.
And for students it's now hard getting to countries like Germany with free education to study for less money and come back and work for UK. UK has to fastly think of a solution and reduce their university fees. Maybe cut the costs on the royal family? I don't know, why it is too expensive in England. High debts? Karma of colonization?
The early approval of the vaccines in the UK was done within EU regulations and the explanation can be found on the MHRA site
Cope lol
As I can't use links Google using phrase and go direct to MHRA for their explanations:
MHRA Chief Executive Dr June Raine explains the process behind the Agency's approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine
The regulatory aspect in detail for the specific can be found in part 174 of the 2012 Human Medicines Regulations
Why should customers and traders in the EU do business with the UK if they can get the same products cheaper, faster and without any hassle from other EU-countries? This is going to kill business with the UK.
financial centers move, they used to reside in the middle east, then south of Europe then north. it all depends on how well a country does economically, if it keeps falling, they will move permanently.
No... a country doesn't have to do well economically to have finance... it just has to have a compatible legal system, respectable business image, speaking English helps ... as the language applicable to that business and be willing to allow a competitive yet free business environment. But the UK will do v well economically.
@@joecat4892 tell me which country in ancient or modern history has a strong financial center when not doing well economically. Obviously any country has a financial center, just as any town has, but as soon as the economy falters the finances move to better pastures. Illustrious examples in history are Rome, Florence, Venice, Madrid, Lisbon and thousands of others.
@@canemcave In a global economic system a financial centre is needed in or around the timezone occupied by London. It is a long way off before any finance cetntre along this axis comes close to dislodging London.
@@atadata6870 that is only true in your imagination, there are plenty of alternatives in the same time zone and in 20 years everything can change. Twenty years might be a long time for some but it's not much in the lifetime of a city.
You just have to consider recent history. London was a depressed city and the UK a faltering economy before joining the EU. When the UK joined, in the 70s, it was liked to a small sinking boat, strapped to a huge cruising ship which kept it afloat..
Does that suggest anything to you?
@@canemcave Without being too impolite it suggests you are out of your depth. A trade war with the EU, worlwide sanctions and cheap oil, despite this Russia has realigned its economy such that in six short years its GDP is back to wherre it was when it annexed the Crimea. The headwinds the UK faces are far less, plus they have just freed themselves from the shackles of the worlds worst performing developed economy since the 2008 crash. History lesson, it was privatisation, deregulation of financial markets (and North Sea oil) that restarted the UK economy, not EU membership, European nations followed in the UK's footsteps enabling twenty years of growth. Also the EU 30 years ago was about trade not the single currency proto federalist unelected one party state it has become. If it was still just about facillitating trade the UK would not have voted to leave.
I get the impression that Stephanie Flanders is just waffling so as to avoid painting as dark a picture as the circumstances warrant .
Exactly more dishonest drivel
lol remoaners its not dark enough for you , im shocked how you want to destroy you own country because you didnt get your way .
@@TheSteelweasel We were promised that Brexit would make things better?
@@thinwhitedukeuk dont confuse brexit with covid but the the streets could be dripping gold and you will still bang on about brexit . get a life .
@@thinwhitedukeuk dont confuse brexit with covid but the the streets could be dripping gold and you will still bang on about brexit . get a life .
Still not able to show any numbers but able to talk for >70minutes?
If the collapse of UK exports to the EU is really due to the stockpilig that companies made in 2020, then just analyze the export data in the last two months of 2020 by comparing them to the last 2 months of exports in 2019.
If UK to EU exports have not changed significantly compared to the end of 2020 and the end of 2019, then it means that not much stockpiling has been done.
Has anyone done this analysis?
All the last years trade went well and Brexiteers counted this as a success of Brexit, but it was only the increased demand because of stockpiling. I know that German car and machinery manufacturers have set up additional warehouses that can supply the UK market for many months with the typical inexpensive spare parts. You can stock those by the thousands and a car needs any of them once every few years. The margins between the cost of manufacturing and retail prices are high. But you can not do this with food. You can not stockpile most foods for many months because the margins are low and the quantities are too large. The manufacturers makes profits because of the large quantities he produces and sells. Just think about the quantities of bread that are consumed in a single day by the population of London. You can not store the amount of bread needed for one week, not only because it will spoil, but also because you do not have the space. Let alone the quantities needed for many months. Bread needs to be produced every day round the clock and it needs to be distributed, sold, and consumed at the same rate as it gets produced.
Hopefully this move will make them more friendly towards business and lower oppressive taxes.
50:20 sums the situation up pretty well.
UK have gained no benefits of any note that in any way protect or enhance national interests. What a mess.
Also one may wish to look into trade war between russia and ukraine started back in 2015 . In 2013 ua>ru export was 50%+ and in 2020
Good for Ukraine thus
Thanks - important yet not mentioned point is that trade linked to the data flow - others call it papework - all that linked to trust services (e-signature e-seal e-delivery timestems etc) UK QTSP now out of EU trust lists - means e-signatures on any electronic documents likely not to be recognized -> going back to actual paper defetenlly less productive way of doing business . One may argue that common law does not care if signature is qualified or scan but EU law thinks otherwise
The UK also insisted that different rules must be possible for the UK at any given time. So even if it is the same on both sides, it isn´t the same because it needs to be different from EU regulations.
Yeah, say goodbye to electronics producers, because there is no critical part producers for electronics devices in UK. For example. STONECOLD is only radiator producer for whole EU
Come on! I am disappointed by how little these persons can tell about Brexit. I live in France and some UK products have simply disappeared and some UK shops too. Remember this is only one way check at the moment (no checks on UK imports but only checks on EU imports, no checks in the Irish sea NI-UK- de-facto a EU-UK border) so it is clear it will get much worse.
Summary; fish except deep frozen are stopped, farm & animal products stopped, all UK small business stopped exporting to the EU, Financial sector migrating massively into the EU, food & drink numbers are cataclysmic. Just announced a MOU to start negotiations -not going very far IMO. The truth is that EU-UK trade is down very significantly in the long run by a minimum of 30% and possibly by up to 50%
Uk's GDP 2019= £2.172 trillion. 3% loss=£65billion. 4%=£86billion+. Johnson is/was/will always be a clown. And the UK listened to Tories, led by this clown and the ERG.
Just ask a non British person and we could have told you 5 years ago ((((((((((((((((((((-: and I am only to tour guide (((((((((-: The real question is, why are the EU countries able to deal with the new situation and have everything in place???? The only reason GsB is still running is because of the generosity of the EU!!!!
AoA Chuhan sb, your information regarding corruption of bureaucracy and political elites is correct, most people know about it but please advise who will bell the cat?
The vaccine argument (43:45) is a knife that cuts both ways unfortunately. A stubborn UK government might also do _worse_ than the the EU average. Exhibit A: most of the rest of the pandemic response. The common EU rules and relations could also limit the government in doing extreme things, something the non coalition politics of the UK has a tendency to do anyway.
The UK has not had an extreme gov't in modern times.
@@chopsandarchie7015 extreme as deviating widely from the all-party consensus. Then this one is pretty extreme.
"We only really have pandemics once in a hundred years". Does this factor in the increased risks resulting from population growth and globalisation? The U.K. success so far with vaccination will gain maybe a few months maximum earlier return of some parts of economic activity. It is also a high risk approach. The next such risk may not work out - that is the nature of risk. This discussion was the best round up of Brexit impacts and prospects (or lack of them) I've heard, thanks.
It was not so much risk as imaginative thinking that is now producing amazing results reducing the Covid infections and deaths. The same type of thinking was used in the middle of the last century, it was amazing that we survived an evil onslaught, but some great minds cracked ciphers and innovated great solutions to the most challenging of problems, we are at our best with our backs to the wall.
It will gain more than that. Only 10 UK virus deaths today, how many in the EU and will the EU recover at all?
A couple of months head start will be a windfall to our economy.
You poo poo it because of your political bias.
@@iansmith788 All that amazing creativity would’ve been for nothing if it wasn’t for Russian and American firepower. The English don’t have a copyright on ingenuity.
@@drbritishdude That didn’t happen though, did it?
Northern Ireland was always hindered by their UK status (an artificial economy subsidised).
13 billion pounds it costs the British taxpayer.
@@williampatrickfagan7590 Petrol Bomb manufacturing has increased recently and there is hope that we may soon be able to export them. Initially to Bristol and London but soon nationwide.
@@donutemptycircle8717 Please withdraw that statement. It is not funny or factual.
@@williampatrickfagan7590 It is factual and never claimed to be funny.
@@donutemptycircle8717 they're being made by loyalists angry because the deal rides over GFA... or aspects of it. EU inflexibility and ambition to hamstring the UK are behind this outcome.
18:59 "Locus of transmission" ? The locus of transmission is obviously airplane flights. how else did it leave the lab in Wuhan and travel all around the world? On the people riding donkeys and mules? Nigeria, a chaotically run country of 200 million ( the census gives figures of plus or minus 10 million) has only had 2000 deaths. This is in a country where people might have to walk for 2 days to get hospital attention. It shut down all international travel in March 2020 and still has not reopened it. they also shut down a lot of travel between the states within Nigeria.
The amazing thing is that Nigeria has made the EU (and to a lesser extent the UK) look like it is run by a bunch of people who could not organise the proverbial piss#p in a brewery.
Its odd that experts know so little about the choices about vaccine within EU. Any country in Europe can do their own sourcing, no one is bounded to the common EU sourcing. You can see EU countries using Chinese and Russian vaccine that they sourced themselves.
I think in the long term the UK will trade more outside of the EU and more with Asia , The Commonwealth and the USA. However I do not think we’ll be the last country to leave the EU
@Euro Man So you think all of those Trade Deals that Liz Truss has made has been a waste of time and I’m sure you would of signed up for the EU Vaccine rollout wouldn’t you , what a mess we’d of been in .
@kevin curry we've vaccinated more than the whole of Europe.
Germany have only vaccinated 4 people!
And France are in the lead with 12 people vaccinated 🙌
But they need a little break now bless em 🐌
High transportation costs plus high production costs will make this a pipe dream. Most people who who say such things have no knowledge of trade business have never run a company or a international trading company. A friend of mine who was an accountant for a large multinational company and latter went on to run a large parts company opened my eyes to just how difficult Brexit would be .
To quote Boris: *BUCK FUSINESS* ....
"We don't need money! We'll just pay using rotten fish like the good old days!"
-Some drunk Brit in the corner of a pub
@Martin Herglotz can you provide a link?
We only care about happy fish and how to get rich!
@@cyberslim7955 By choosing how to get poor.
@@rick7424 Its called Taking Back Control, apparently....
The vaccine issue is not a Brexit bonus. If the E.U. had triggered emergency vaccine operations it would have happened faster. However it was left to individual countries to make their own vaccine policy. Britain I side the E.U could have done exactly the same. If we free up food deal with U.S. GM and hormone beef will flood into u.k. the E.U. would shut down food imports from us.
I have loved in USA for 40 years & what I observe is that the Tories are trying to stear UK to the USA way. Means the Corps pay no taxes & yet the de -regulations mean tax payers pay for their pollution & accidents. Then everything gets privatized - even Prisons & Health Care. My Health Insurance is $865 a month & I still have co-pays. UK will become America with the the fun taken out. Yes & y'all be getting Hormones & Chemicals in ALL your food.
Well those jobs estimations NEVER included faced out role.Please check career websites the biggest banks, see at by yourself where those jobs pop up? Dublin has 12.5% corporate tax now U.K. and London is simply loosing its competitive advantage
The country’s name is the Netherlands. 🙄
are you sure it is not Nederland ?
after all England is not Engeland
@@erikje7352 🤦♂️
Glad to see some optimism about education and NHS getting more investment, especially considering how these important sectors have been suffering from a decade of brutal and inexcusable cuts. We will see if this optimism actually translates into reality, which I am extremely sceptical about, just by looking at the complete lack of interest from a specific political party, the same that has instigated this mess on us.
Wishful thinking my friend. After the insulting 1% offer increase when inflation is above that...it’s actually a reduction in wages. Further more, the NHS is getting sold off to private America insurers...I wouldn’t be to optimistic...one of the Tory is known for is privatisation and pocketing the profit with their friends
With the direction that the UK government now is taking, especially with the recent tax cuts, I don't have a lot of hope of the NHS and public education getting more funds.
@@feikesterk598 With the direction the UK government is now taking, I don't have a lot of hope in there being any NHS or public education worth speaking of by the end of the 2020s.
U.K. better look after their NHS as it is the best of all you’ve got !!!
This is an example of academics trying to come to grips with the harsh reality of being a small business owner having to deal with the new barriers to trade. There should be absolutely no question that the small business sector of the economy would be terribly hard hit almost immediately.
You would say that, wouldn’t you
My wife is the accountant with small company, the supply chain comes from Germany and Poland prices are up 10% on the back of all the paperwork now needed if it wasnt a high volume of business then it would just have stopped. The next issue is transportation getting a delivery has become hugely problematic going forward there's also been put a 50£ surcharge per shipment.
On top of this is the nightmare of vat traceback into the EU is expected to fall to zero leaving only the UK market plus a few foreign contracts one with the Swiss they've had to switch to shipping by air with increased costs
Yeah expensive dealing with the EU nowadays, most will seek out new markets.
@@MyVinnyp you made it expensive not the EU.You chosed to be 3rd country .now you winging about being expensive .
@@EDD-xr4ub I'm not whingeing about anything. I'm 100% happy to be out of the EU. What i am saying is that both UK businesses and consumers will find markets elsewhere, the EU are the long term losers. The UK are already doing so. Brexiters have always said that the EU was protectionist, not a problem for me, EU goods can stay unsold as far as i'm concerned.
@@MyVinnyp that protectionist group was protecting brittish B grade water mussels and shellfish from competition from other markets.And brittish fishermen been having their bussineses.now?You aware that all deals Uk done are either copy paste or worse than the ones they had while in the EU as EU has stipulated in the deals that they have to have the best deals always.Just inform yourself and you.ll find out.Well,albanians or marrocans love english food and can.t wait for them to enjoy their deals with the Uk.Is EU loosing cause everything England produce is not being produced in the other 27 EU countries.Pure english entitlement here.They depend on England.:)))Keep in mind i said England and not Uk as i don.t consider Scotland Wales or Northern Ireland as non EU as England and cause they ll not stay for long in the Uk anyway.especially Scotland.
@@MyVinnyp do you really believe what you are writing???
If anybody knows 1 Brexit Benefit. Please, please tell me...........
@Pawwel Mussial They always did.
Less hgvs on the roads cleaner air improvement in environmental conditions reduce aircraft noise
Thousands of lives saved due to vaccination rollout. Also downturn in trade might just have something to do with the world being in lockdown for the last year. Have you all forgotten about that?
@@davidweir8312 look at your people past away. And downturn trade was all over the world but you hit the record. Have you all forgotten about that?
No VAT on tampons.....
....aaaaaaand.... ummmmmm.....
.....................
Oh yes fantastic British farmers produce GMOs to enhance the trade with the EU, but there is a problem with that thought - we take GMOs only as fodder for animals. Thinking through will help immensly.
The London derivative market will be impacted heavily by Basel III. This will kick in at the end of June 2021. London has to comply to this as well but after asking for an extension (I wonder why?), London has to comply with Basel III by the end of Jan 2022. I rarely see any detailed explanation what this will mean for London as the financial center. Basel III is imposing requirements on financial institutes in the sense that derivatives can only be traded if the underlying physical asset is actually owned by a minimum percentage amount. The LBMA is a good example. It is a known fact that they trade precious metals on the futures market while the custodian bullion banks do not have the underlying asset in their vaults. Basel III might be the trigger that could shock the derivatives market and shake out the hypothecation that is inherently existing in any derivative system. You hardly hear anything about this while the impact is potentially enormous. Channels like Bloomberg or CNBC hardly talk about this but this article shows that potentially something big is going to happen: www.gata.org/node/21134.
Just subscribed, looking forward to your posts, regards, Richard
Are you sure there isn't going to be a replacement for London?? I wouldn't be so sure...
No London is a global financial hub and will continue as such no European city will overtake London in that respect.
@@charliezz6746 places in Germany and Warsaw, Poland don’t think so
Anand Menon s optimism is recommendable, but he should may be do his job. Why does the British elite continue to enable its ruling class? It s time to hold the ruling class to account.
2021 and that worse than dvd 360p quality still lingers around.
Anand appears to have this idea that there are positives to Brexit, he thought that before Brexit and not a fact in the world appears to change his mind. I'd like him as my defence lawyer should I commit a serious crime, he could explain to my victim why it was potentially great for them with no evidence.
I think he just pretends to be objective.
I do not think he is optimistic, he is just asking good questions.
It goes like this:
Anand: Isn't there this advantage.. (knowing that it is not).
Answer: No, that is not the case because...
Anand's got his nice media gig now. He don't want lose the perks that come with, financial relative fame etc...
So he doesn't want to annoy the tories and elites running the media which includes the tory controlled bbc newsroom. So he can't afford to tell the truth about brexit
There was always going to be a economic hit with Brexit. You don't change your trading arrangements after 40 years in this way without. More so because the new agreement was done Xmas Eve I think it was so business had very little time to adjust before january
Small medium businesses have taken over a decade to recover from the 2008 economic meltdown many have developed markets across the EU the short /long term is bleak there is no global market for nearly all these goods. The impact of Brexit will take decades to recover from if ever
@@SlowhandGreg I find it odd that as much as I would like to say to voters we should look to rejoin the EU. I watch events unfold during this pandemic and I find myself watch the commission acting and behaving in the exact way many pro leave voters had been describing for many years. So while I agree with you the economic many take a few years to adjust and remap itself. I am pleased I was on the losing side of that vote in 2016.
@@darrylhewes2376 the EU has exported 40+million doses of vaccine the lions share to the UK the UK has exported zero your wallowing in propaganda dig into what's actually going on. The EU are well within thier right to bar exports we have.
In terms of economics were so fkd its not even worth talking about well be cap on hand within a decade
@@SlowhandGreg The vaccine saga makes me laugh. The EU appointed a woman who was sacked from the German government for purcurment failing on defence contract to secure the vaccines for the EU. I have no sympathy when VDL then fails again . Her record on purcurment speaks for itself. The rest is just an old political trick when under fire point the finger and try a little Misdirection. The UK won't be as productive going forward economically. But the sky is falling in cap in hand stuff is nonsense
@@darrylhewes2376 we've just cut ourselves off from 27 markets my wife works in an Small/medium company the tories have shafted everyone, this country is going into decades of decline there is no alternate markets or supply chain for 60% of UK businesses
So what’s revealed is that commentators are not referencing current post Brexit trends with the prediction model they must surely have made pre Brexit. This indicates that leaving Brexit was not a strategy based on a strong economic predictive model, modern procedure.
We all know what might well happen to a company that innovates, goes into full production and then attempts to sell without first doing market research.
If London had redistributed its wealth things reactionary self harm may not have happened.
Something to learn from.
We never learn!
Is the wardrobe to Narnia still open?
you better hurry up Naria is almost full..:-)
Think so but the lion wants to be rewilded while the witch smiles lopsidedly.
Sorry.. ! We just moved that one to Amsterdam. It has access to a bigger market, you know.
You now need a visa to go to narnia......
Thank you, this was a very informative discussion from all of you. From a Swiss perspective it was particularly interesting because you referenced our own relationship with the EU several times when discussing the possible future development. I very much share the view that the EU has very little interest in complicated, sectorial agreements. Switzerland right now is faced with the question whether we want to put our various sectorial agreements under an umbrella deal that takes care of legal alignment, jurisdiction (with regard to the single market), union citizenship and salary protection. The federal government has finished the respective negotiations with the EU in 2018 and then shied away from selling the agreement internally. By now the conservatives and the labor unions are firmly against it and the responsible government member refuses to take care of the project. Essentially the government considers the agreement dead and some liberals demand that it be put to the vote, as there has not been a democratic verdict yet.
All the arcane Swiss politics aside, in case the agreement never gets put to a vote or is defeated, the EU has made it clear that there will be no updates or additions to the sectorial agreements. This means the Swiss participation in the single market will erode over time and may, depending on the actual development in our economy and the single market, become almost meaningless. This would mean we would be in the same situation as the UK more or less. We also have our fair share of sovereigntists who have no concern for trade or the wider economy and view every international agreement solely through the lense of national sovereignty. If Switzerland wants to avoid that we will have to accept a more reliable mechanism to ensure legal alignment and jurisdiction over single market related laws. Even though many 'alternatives' are being suggested by the opponents of the umbrella agreement, such as EEA+, EFTA+, etc., they will all have to incorporate some mechanisms that ensure that the EU will not have to deal with a complicated back and forth over dozens of sectorial agreement but rather the certainty that if Switzerland participates in the SM that it will ensure legal conformity and accept jurisdiction over the relevant law.
Thanks again for this interesting talk!
So basically, you are either in the SM or you are out.
Never seen a swiss person with an EU flag as their profile nor a swiss who is so pro EU most swiss I've met and spoken to have always seem dead against ever joining as full members and said how glad they are that they never joined despite the country having a very close bilateral relationship with the EU.
@@charliezz6746 There are a lot of historical reasons. Direct democracy, much higher wages, etc... It's like China and Taiwan. Belongs together but has some fundamental differences, which are hard to overcome. Most people in EU would like to see the EU become more like Switzerland first, so it can naturally converge...
It is the obverse of Brexit. In the UK, PM May decided that for Brexit to mean Brexit, the UK had to leave the single market and customs union, the rationales being else it would be Brexit in name only and she needed to show she was going to respect the vote. Switzerland decided not to join the EEA which would have meant joining the single market. It then succeeded to negotiate the series of sectoral agreements. These made sense for the EU in sectors like machinery, pharma and chemicals but given the disparity in size this set of agreements made little sense for the EU who naturally prefer a broader agreement in the form of a free trade agreement as they have with Japan. If for internal reasons an umbrella agreement is unsellable, Switzerland could actually find itself more detached than the UK which at least has the Johnson negotiated free trade agreement. This would be a pity as the EU Swiss arrangements over the last 30 years have brought mutual benefits.
Unfortunately, the need for 'mechanisms' and 'sectorial agreements' reflects disunity and non-alignment inside the EU. There is no single market to speak of. This is a politically constructed myth. And yet 'participation' in the so called European project demands legal conformity, something that is bureaucratically and centrally administered under the banner of pro-globalism controlled by North Western Europe. Germany must make its mind up. it hasn't. This results in eroded standards of living against the promise of 'prosperity' the Maastricht Treaty champions. Hence growing German resentment is dangerously undermining the future of Europe more broadly. This helps to account for the political rise of the extreme right right across Europe.
To clarify the UK would have to build up its trade with the US by a factor of four if it's trade with the EU were to drop to zero, which is not a serious position to hold,.Trade will continue with the EU but going forward it is likely to be less than it has been, and it is thaty shortfall that will need to be made up.
If USA should compensate for loss in EU trade they need 4 more USA, start looking Brexiters, it’s getting urgent...
@@bokhans To clarify the UK would have to build up its trade with the US by a factor of four if it's trade with the EU were to drop to zero, which is not a serious position to hold,.Trade will continue with the EU but going forward it is likely to be less than it has been, and it is thaty shortfall that will need to be made up.
Good moderation of the debate
The Tory cult of Brexit keeps giving.
It certainly does
Lots of scope for UK to compete by abolishing all tariifs, setting up tax haven, money laundering, shipping flag of convenience etc. Labour cost could be addressed by allowing 3rd world guest workers and charging for visas.Auctioning honours and knighthoods could also be a good earner.
I'm gunna presume this is sarcasm. If so, I applaud you.
@@Nick-kb6jd Hi Nick, I forgot casinos, like idea of casino led economic growth.
we could call it the Dubai model
You forgot tourism for all of the attractions that are hard to arrange in the Community, such as dog fighting, narcotics and child prostitution.
Reintroduction of child labour and debt bondage would benefit the economy as well and bring down labour costs. You go to the employer sign a contract, he gives you free housing in a shed and food and some pocket money and you work for free for one year.
Very interesting conversation, but have in mind that this agreement with E.U hasn't been ratified from the E.U parliament yet, so maybe this debate can be completely irrelevant.
these rules apply regardless of ratification up to a time obviously, so for the time being it's as if the treaty was ratified. Also, some of the rules are temporary, meaning, they will expire in accordance with the treaty itself, hence the trade will have a few more hurdles in the coming years as things stand today.
What impact will the shenanigans being played out by politicians in relation to Brexit have on consumers desire to purchase from the EU or visa versa ? Are people asking where rather than what items are made, a kind of consumer boy-cot.
The main thing for me, as a British consumer, is that I explicitly look out for EU goods. I avoid buying anything from any British or multi-national company which has expressed support for Brexit in any form. This means that, for example, I no longer buy Dyson, or Tate and Lyle, and I look for food which is produced in the EU.
So yes, we are asking where things are made, in order to economically support the EU, and destroy brexit-supporting businesses as far as we possibly can. Completely, if possible.
The banking and insurance businesses in London have already reassured that they will keep on doing their business as before and will go mostly unharmed through all the changes. They´ll just move the business to a different country and offer their services somewhere else. So all the shareholders don´t suffer. This is something to be thankful for (only if you are a shareholder, obviously).
Those businesses will be taxed elsewhere and their staff will be based elsewhere. Enjoy.
@@TheChessPatzer Brexit brings joy to the Brexiteers and to many EU countries. Banks are also doing well, a win-win situation for everybody. Brexit is a gift that keeps on giving for many years.
That's not true by last week the london banks lost 27 trillion in EU derivatives with a potential 60 something trillion. And also of course london is no longer the largest trading area of europe for over 2 months now.
@@staunch2207London is still a global financial hub no European city can match it in that respect it's on a bar with New Year and Tokyo.
@@charliezz6746 And declining somewhat like a shot angel. The City as we have know it since Big Bang is over ...
So basically these people understand the consequences of being a 3rd country outside the EU and the SM, whilst the politicians and the media were telling the people that nothing would change, and that was met with an widespread lack of critical thinking among the citizenship.
Why does the UK no longer have a workforce and so has to import labour?
The way we brought our kid up unfortuantely. On a diet of believing we were number one, buying them expensive shite "because I didn't have that when I was young", then allowing them to do bugger all with their lives wasting it away.
Kid gets wrong at school? In days gone by there'd be hell on when you got home. Nowadays the parent will go to the school and punch the teacher.
Get shouted at at work? Hand your notice in - who do they think they are? In years gone by we had manners and resilience.
And labour? Oh christ - not a chance. Our kids want job titles with "senior" in at 22yrs, then they blib their measily couple of grand salary a month and pour it into leasing cars.. In years gone by it'd be a £2-3k loan for your first banger. Now it MUST be a £25k model - even though we all know it's a lease motor!
Think Ur missing the point here Geoff. Football will lose its competiveness as these few top clubs will field a second team in the UK Premiership as the players wil be mackerel if playing too many matches, and the super League will be a closed shop with no access to any other clubs. It is not even the current top 6 that are involved. And there are many other issues meaning fans may find the pro game a turn off from herein.
that should be knackered. NOT mackerel .
Stockpiling does not affect UK-Exports, only Imports.
That’s simply not true. EU countries (particularly Ireland) stockpiled 3-4 months worth of stock in December ahead of Brexit.
@@shanecondon369 3 to 4 months of stockpile is a bit of a a stretch maybe 2 at most. Theres not that much warehouse space in Ireland to store a third or fourth of all yearly imports from the UK.
@@shanecondon369 I can only speak for Germany, but their was not much stockpiling here. Monopolys aside why should Germany take additional costs for British Products, they get otherwise? They we're a lot of curses about the lack of wooden palettes and to many void containers in the UK. The Stockpiling seems to me onesided. I am clearly not an expert, but the stockpiling-argument does not hold much water for me.
@@andreasruhm1690 fair enough, but I was personally involved in stockpiling in Ireland and it was done across the retail sector.
@@shanecondon369 Yes that might be true for Ireland and its unique location in UK's backyard but that's just not really the case for the rest of Europe. Unless in very specialised cases where you don't have other options like importing certain chemicals. Everyone who could just switched their supplier.
I like that I can tell what goes on in the entire video by which side of the biases is the most common in the comments
Congratulations, you have discovered human nature, known to us since the ancient Greeks.
Except in this case the bias is between reality of the economic situation and the lie that won the Brexit vote
You are an economics expert?
Yes with a program like this I always look for biases too. I thought most contributors were mild Brexit sceptics but they were still capable of making reasonable points too. Overall I was pleasantly surprised that it was worth listening to.
@@specialized500 was that at me? Where did I insinuate either my opinion of the discussion or my opinion in general?
Boris Johnson said "F@@K Bussines" 👀
Telling us exports fell by 40% is interesting, but what's the otherside of that coin, what happened to imports? Why do we only ever get given half the story when figures are stated and why is it BREXIT and not the forced shutdown they blame immediately, or the intransigence of the EU over obstructing trade? There is obviously more than BREXIT going on, so to immediately assign all change to one thing is gross oversimplification.
Since BREXIT is a first there are NO models for economic or trade impact. What we are seeing is unique and guessing is only adding to the confusion.
We're in the midst of supermarkets, wholesalers and distributors reassessing their supply chains and looking at these new trade deals as sources. This won't happen overnight but EU trade is dropping and will continue to drop. Especially given their recent behaviour, I'm sure businesses are very worried about their intellectual property rights and corporate property after the EU has seized and suspended their operations.
After 6 to 12 months let's look at the trade and assess none EU trade too as part of the picture because looking solely at the EU is going to be a misdirection in every way. Trade is moving away and it's only going to increase. 40% exports could well be going elsewhere instead of the EU, has anybody asked the right questions and looked at the right statistics? Because everybody talks EU as if that's the only part of the picture. There's a lot more going on outside now and that's going to change the way statisticians look at these figures or they'll never add up.
Surely someone can develop an App to enable export documentation to be formalised in a few clicks... lowering costs significantly and streamlining processing 😀
Online forms ready to fill out already exist. The issue is that a company doesn't export to the EU but to a country inside the EU. Each of the 27 countries has its own import documents and requirements. But the real problem is the cost. UK companies can't sell directly to the end consumer anymore due to added customs tax which can easily double the original purchase price.
The main objective of paperwork is being cumbersome, so, I don't think so.
@@swanky_yuropean7514 Which is exactly why the UK will slowly wean itself off of buying from the EU and seek out markets elsewhere and where currency exchange rates are more favourable to the pound. The UK has already been doing this over a number of years.
@@MyVinnyp I see, we're chasing unicorns again. Good luck finding those countries that don't require import/export documents with fees attached to them.
My guess is you will be in for quite the surprise.
@@swanky_yuropean7514 Well the UK is already in talks with a number of countries in regard to future trade deals, your guess is just that, a guess. Personally i prefer to see the facts as they happen.
I have lived in Italy for 13 years, the UK has an edge because the bureaucracy which is incredible here, about 15 years ago some Italians wanted to open a shop in London and asked for help, I said its easy find premises and open up, they did not believe me and went to the Italian embassy for advice, just open up its that easy!
Presumably said Italians will be going home now, as importing into the UK is so complex, expensive, and nobody buys from shops anyway, any more.
I went to the local council in Italy to get a Codice Fiscale number. I got it across the counter. It took me a month to get a NI number in the UK. A police clearance takes 4 weeks in Britain.So much for British bureaucracy
@@ausbrum When I went for a coda fiscale they told me cannot have one without an address , I need to buy a house, got in the end not bad, but everything needs twenty signatures in Italy, Italians are terrified of bureaucracy, coda fiscale national insurance not really like for like
@@ohgosh5892 of course it takes time for procedures to be implemented. It takes longer than a few months in my little 10 man company
What food shortages
Without any border control of goods going in there is no shortage, but so much for taking back control of the borders! 🤢🤮🤯 And when the border checks kick in.......🤫🙈
What's strange is that everybody is still looking at the trade figures for January 2021 which were pretty quick to appear in Feb. 2021. It's now April. Where are the figures for Feb. & March?
I'm trying to find data for it all but I don't think a lot of the metrics are quite that up to date, we'll probably be able to analyse March in June.
Even in the ONS data I've so far only found info up to December 2020. Trying to find data that's more granular than quarterly from them.
plenty of company had offices or plants in the UK because of: the language and because the UK had access to the EU. These factors are why Ireland has and will benefit from Brexit. What was going to the UK is going to most likely move to Ireland.
Sell the London House NOW & buy in Dublin.
lol the city of London is going to move to Dublin, the vaccine debacle has shown that will never happen and even before that many financial institutions didn't trust the EU and it's protectionism.
www.bbc.com/news/business-56155531
so much for everyone moving to Dublin .......
@@paulmorgan8254 you seem to read what you like and forget the rest. eyeing, planning does not mean they have moved, does it?
Despite all the economic crisis, this is still go of time to start up an investment.
The central role of property rights in our system of government must be reinforced.
@@smithwillison6345 Property does not have rights. People have rights. The right to enjoy property without unlawful deprivation.
The American food tuber sonny went to Iran and said this.
"People ain't their governments, people are people. we have a lot more in common than you think.
@@carsoncordelli9557 The desire for profit was a powerful motivator to make man improve his condition (and thereby mankind's in general).
@@danhanson5314 The creation of this property eventually allowed for exchange.
Some dog shit was cleared up off the pavement and some gardens have increased the bird feed both of which could be attributed to being successful results of Brexit!
I used to buy items from the UK, the last time I bought a donut from gamestop they charged me twice the price for being from Mars , I’m not buying nothing in the UK AGAIN! From now on I’ll probably buy donuts from Neptune
So none of you know. Of course. The future is going to be different.
The point is, is that we all knew what we had before Brexit, but we have no idea what we will have from now on. Which is no good for Business.
@@vbsbkjer2 You don;t know because your mind is filled with fear. No-one knows the future, and no-one thought it would be painless. But it you cannot see yet that Europe is a crisis of it's own, as is everywhere else on the planet, you cannot understand that Brexit is not the reason. If we fail, it will be due to a lack of courage, conviction and hard work.The EU was never going to do it for us.
"Austerity programme" Hilarious. When did that happen exactly?
Under Cameron.
Why you have only one vote for Brexit, New Caledonia vote minimum 3 times for independence.
The majority of people in England are ignorant, they don't understand how they've been done over by Brexit.
Why would the EU move its financial services from London to New York?
New York isn't in the EU either, and London is far closer.
Why wouldn't they? As the customer, they can choose who is their supplier.
60 million vs 300 million.
Not hard to imagine why they would....
Because my competitor's competitor is my accomplice.
Because the US has agreements with the EU on financial services that the UK hasn't bothered to negotiate a deal for. Euro denominated derivate trades went from 40% before Brexit to 10% in January alone, with 11% going to New York and the rest spread across the EU it seems.
Or they could move to Frankfurt, Brussels or Dublin where all other financial services have moved since leaving the City. Maybe they just need to grow one of those to provide more centralization
If only membership of the EU were just about trade.
But it is only about trade. The EU is a trade union and a very powerfull one. But otherwise the separate countries a sovereign.
@@carolien2108 so free movement of people isn't a condition? Being bound by the EU court of justice is also a myth...? Ever closer union also is just hype right? There's no common currency...? It really is more than just trade...
@@markfenlon244 Yes, but trade affects all the subjects you mention. Need cheap workers for harvesting, health care, building? Let them come in from cheap labour countries. A common currency is agreat way to enhance trade and bussiness. Far better than having to exchange. If you want to realise trade deals, you need a court to handle disputes. In this way the EU does regulate a whole lot. But even then, the separate countries keep control of their internal affairs.
@@carolien2108 I take on board the points you make but I don't see them as positives. Free trade should always be the goal but it should not cost you control of your currency, borders or laws.
@@markfenlon244 I can see your point. It is what makes many people hate the EU. Also in my country. But to me the EU has brought prosperity and peace. It takes a lot of kerfuffle and time and it is not easy. But in the end the EU gets things done.
With regards the question of rejoining, a close of friend of mine at the heart of Government said that the UK population has to feel the pain and bleed. It would probably be the case that there will shortly be the case that there are sufficient people in the UK who would vote to rejoin the EU. It will take the emergence of Europe from COVID and economic recovery to provide a benchmark for UK growth for the UK population to change their minds. The transition from Project Fear to Project Fact will take time to sink in and for the difficulties of an abrupt break with the EU, single market and customs union to be felt. The fallacy of genuine autonomy and sovereignty will also take time to emerge as the implications of signing pan regional trade agreements with the Far East and North America, I.e. in order to sign these deals, one has to adhere to rules set by other more powerful economic blocks. However, there will be no rejoining while the UK Government’s deceit and incompetence is perpetuated by broad media support. I think that the only way that there can be change is voting out the Conservative party by a new centrist political party that poaches MPs from both left and right in an alliance with other progressive parties with a clear and determined path to a form of proportional representation. Assuming that this all happens, the other issue is would the EU want us back (probably yes) but allow the UK to assume it’s previous place as sitting outside the core, not committing to the Euro and further political integration. The EU has its own problems and it needs to allow member states to follow a different path outside the core pillars of a single market, the original purpose of the club. Finally, there needs to be a move to allow the European Parliament to originate legislation and for the EU commission to be genuine servants of the European people and not the political masters of the European people that they sometimes appear to be. Many people in the EU like being members of the EU; I am not so sure that there is much popular affection for the EU Commission.
That's rich coming from someone named Surrey.
A German survey of Brexit voters published last week placed the No1 though as "I never realised the benefits of being in the EU were tied to BEING IN the EU, I thought we could leave and still have all the benefits, just not obey the rules" No2 "Ive screwed up my childs future"
@@rattylol what a totally irrelevant and stupid comment by rattylol for something so serious. shame on you. Whatever side of the argument, there are people suffering out there
@@piccalillipit9211 I can believe it. This comes down to a lack of awareness of how connected our lives and economies have become with EU membership.
People talk about returning to a time before we joined the EU BUT the world has changed since. There was relatively free movement for Brits into Europe before the oil crisis in 1973. Joining the EEC enshrined free movement. In 1950, UK’s per capita GDP was almost a third larger than the EU6 average; in 1973, it was about 10% below; it has been comparatively stable ever since. On this basis, joining the EU worked - it helped to halt Britain’s relative economic decline vis-à-vis the EU6. We faced a decline as the commonwealth was unable to provide the economic support it once did and bilateral trade deals did not fit the UK economic model. Cameron would have had more success with negotiating a better deal IF a) he had not ditched the conservative alliance in Europe and sided with the far right b) had tried to make friends with other European leaders and not treated them badly (eg the famous rejected handshake with Sarkozi) c) had taken advice from George Osbourne and others to delay the referendum by at least a year. Even then, once the referendum result became known, Theresa May would have had a much better time of it is she had waited before triggering article 50, she could have then secretly negotiated a much better deal than Cameron and the EU would have been far more accommodating to give her one. She could then put a more detailed option to the country: stay with better deal vs leave completely. Basically, our politicians dropped the can.
Firstly those that voted for Brexit were not voting for improved trade with the EU. Yes our trade with the EU will fall, but our trade with the rest of the world will increase. We now have near 70 FTA's with nations around the world and in parts of the world with economies growing significantly more than anywhere in Europe. The UK has achieved more trade deals in 12 months than the total number for the EU in circa 40 years! Sovereignty, autonomy and democracy have already been won back and that is worth far more than any trade we've lost with the EU. If the reduction in EU trade stays at 40% on pre-Brexit value that's worth £120B and I have no doubt that we'll recoup that with our new trading partners with India and Japan alone worth over £40B alone in additional trade. We also have CANZUK and membership of the Pacific free trade area (CPTPP) in the pipeline and add that to the £20B we'll not be paying the EU to be in the club and you can see its really not that bad. The post Brexit outcome is far, far better than that we're told it would be when we voted to leave and there's not a day goes by that I've ever regretted voting to leave.
@AIBO1 "The UK has achieved more trade deals in 12 months than the total number for the EU in circa 40 years" Various types of agreement: Customs Unions.
Association Agreements, Stabilisation Agreements, (Deep and Comprehensive) Free Trade Agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements. Partnership and Cooperation Agreements. Now FACT (not mine) : 78 EU agreements either in place or ready to sign. Awaiting signatures a further 28. Under negotiation 6. Paused 24. The UK has NO "new" signed agreements - all are cut and pasted from those made by the EU for us. The combined current value (over and above that which we had when in the EU) is PERHAPS a few million pounds per year and THAT is mainly in IMPORTS which does NOT help our economy. Worse? yes of course worse - we have to take on board the bad parts of al those cut and paste agreements - level playing field, subsidy, labour rules, etc - many of which will be invading our laws quite soon. But of course we will learn nothing of that - the tories have passed a law that prevents the Mps from voting or even debating such agreements. Whoopee long live democracy
Fat chance with CANZUK, keep on dreaming little England. Cheers from 🇦🇺
You understand these are copy/pasted trade deals from EU that tie both countries to EU standards, yes? The few that are not, like with Japan, are notably worse than what the EU had with the same country.
You're also off your rocker if you think either the Trans Pacific Partnership or CANZUK would work out. TPP is too far away for any fresh goods, would need approval of key members. Australia and New Zealand have old grudges to iron out regarding the Ottowa Agreements that they are sure to bring up. All of them, particularly Canada, would rather maintain good relations with the EU and US than the UK, especially after the two begin moving against the UK for its noncompliance of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
@Martin Herglotz See you clever Remoaners are straight out with the insults again aren't you. Perhaps, just perhaps, people like me value democracy, sovereignty and autonomy over trade with the EU? I don't care if we are worse off, but like most of the prophecies of doom coming from you people its all been proven to be untrue or massively over stated so far.
@@htlein Here's the UK's en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_agreements_of_the_United_Kingdom at the bottom you'll see we have trade deals with 95 nations 27 or which are in the EU meaning we have 68 outside of the EU. Here's the EU's en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements Total number 55 one of which is the UK when they can get round to ratifying it.
Well,I suppose we got over the Second World War-now for the bigger economic challenge -at least not the lives sacrificed-just the quality of life .Anyone likely to admit to having voted Brexit ? I admire your honesty,regret your judgment
Better than dictatorship
@@ojlbrickwork8092
And you honestly think that is the choice That is how you view friendship and union ? You think the 26 members of the European Union live under a dictatorship Youdo not think we are dictated to by The Bullingdon mob and the Eton bullies ?