Sign up for FTX and use the referral code "carlson" to get $10 when you do your first $100 trade. FTX Mobile: link.blockfolio.com/9dzp/iyvwqrcp FTX Desktop: ftx.us/home/#a=carlson Also, if you haven't already, check give the Patreon a try, it's $10/month and comes with a free trial: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson You gain access to qualtrim.com which just had a major update, it's received very good feedback so far. Try it out risk free.
The best investment one can do right now is investing on Forex trading though stocks are good but ever since I swapped to Forex, I've seen so much difference
Great video! any advice on other stocks to acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation? Roughly $120K in my portfoIio are in tech/TSLA stockss
The markett is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financiaI-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
@David cho That's grand! I believe the high-value gains are backed by years of study/experience in knowing what makes what tick. the portfolio-advisr that guides you is who though
@David cho Hi, I looked up Diana Claire Lougen and she actually looks really familiar, think I’ve come across her on Tv or somewhere…Anyhoo thanks for sharing.
Are those big dips not great for a dividends investor?? You can buy in big during times of extreme downwards moving, than you hold untill it happens again and you add more.. in the mean time just enjoy the dividend right??
So far in the past few months I’ve slowed down buying to only maybe an IPO or something I already own that has been overly beaten down. Only money I’m consistently putting into the market are through my financial advisor.
Same here sold my stocks earlier and my strategy ever since has been pretty much buying Gold and silver to protect my weałth but if I could come up with a way to stay invested and be profitable that would be brilliant.
Last year a colleague introduced me to a financial advisor Camille Anne Hector. With her help I have been able to diversify by investing in different market and asset classes while also keeping an open eye for attractive stock picks. she is quite known so you can find more about her online.
Thanks for the recommendation I found her website easily online and I’m really satisfied with her reviews and certifications, this is a much safer and easier way for me to get back in this very volatile market.
Please is she readily available? I made the regret of my life tackling this volatile market by myself now it’s been red after red. I would love to get guidance considering how bad I have messed up my portfolio.
Glad I found her recommendations earlier on. I joined her program March 2020, I’m so glad I’m following her and making my way through all the information provided. I love her approach and although I have little to invest I have taken my portfolio to 740k$
Hi Joseph! Great show. But I do not agree with your final conclusion on TROW, but I am glad that you didn't say it was a "bad company", but that it doesn't meet your investment criteria due to its volatility and your investment strategy and goals. I respect that. But I do want to point out that volitility is your friend in a dollar-cost-averaging dividend strategy. It allows an investor to lower their cost basis over time for their dividend stocks, and increasing their relative dividend yield over time.
Very much loving this new video cadence, Joseph. Between your 2 channels there's a new video almost every day and as always there are nice nuggets of wisdom in them.
5:44 If you can't understand that some companies like AMD are a completely new from before, I doubt your fundamental analysis. The previous AMD was dead in 2015, and I tend to look at AMD as a new company that has been on the market for seven or eight years. Those EPS declines are not a single company problem, if you have heard of one thing called the .com bubble and another called the financial crisis. Few companies in that industry eps will do much better than this. The chip industry itself is also a cyclical industry, which may not be the same as the restaurant supermarket you can only understand. But a cyclical industry doesn't mean the market won't grow in size, or that it's hard to predict. Instead, it's one of the fastest-growing industries of this generation. Historical bias, company movements and stock prices have nothing to do with movements and stock prices over the past decade. You're not the only one who makes decisions based on past stability and growth. Its just not something work.
According to the New York Times, the averg savings of a couple reaching retirement is $104,000, I’m closing in on my retirement and I’m under pressure to grow my reserve of $300k, albeit the capital gains you can make on growth stocks far exceed dividend yields, and even in downtrends folks still pull off 6-7figures gains in months, surely the risk is much greater, but I’d love to know how.
there're tons of avenues to capitalize on in a downtrend to make substantial gains, but these opportunities and trades are successfully carried out by pros.
Totally, my holdings were down alot and I sold at a loss multiple times, up until I sought out a coach featured on Bloomberg, she devised a adjustable structure that matched my goals and retirement plans, it’s been 3years following her guidelines and I’ve gained over $850K+ net profit.
I mainly hold long-term, but with these crazy inflated standard of living, I'd like to spread across short term gains as well which would really go a longway, could you share more details on this coach
Per FTX, because FTX does not use PFOF , they will start charging 0.05% fee on the nominal value of stock trades. That is if you buy 30 shares of Amazon at $130, you fee for buying Amazon is ($130x30x0.05%)= $1.95 per trade . Just putting this out there
@@patriciapeever9560 - TY for your reply. I’m still confused, why pay for your trades when there are so many good platforms available that don’t charge anything?
Hello, I wanted to ask you that if you sell calls as well in your portfolio, OR it's only bought and held for a long duration of time. Especially now when valuations are extremely high as compared to the current negative GDP. How is it that you protect yourself? You understand that market goes through different cycles of growth. Especially when we printed 2 Trillion $ and all that 2 Trillion $ was wiped out when markets sold off. Though it's true that one can buy a house and keep it over a long period of time and it will always be profitable trade but there is an opportunity cost as well which one has to pay when holding such assets for a long period of time. I do appreciate your transparency.
Ha I’m sort of the opposite. I have no interest in VICI but I’m buying into TROW. I’m not sure we are looking at the same graph for TROW. it seemed to be going up and to the right pretty regularly.
I think selling TROW would be a mistake. If you're looking at yourself as a long-term investor, a few quarters of declining EPS should not scare you. TROW has a great management, stellar dividend record and EVA (Economic Value Added) growth over the years. I personally think this is the time to buy it, not to sell it. Same goes for Blackrock.
You talked about T Rowe Price in a negative light due to earnings coming down which is fair. But you then said about it wiping out "your gains", I thought you were focused on dividends, not paper gains? TROW has great dividend growth over time, many consecutive years of dividend growth, a very healthy payout ratio, and a very healthy balance sheet. But dividends do not matter in this case to you because of what the stock price does on any given day or market cycle? If thats the case, not only is TROW not the right investment for you, many stocks in most sectors are not for you.
@@JosephCarlsonShow you can decide whats right for you of course. From what I got from the video, you don't like a share price that can go down as easily as TROW. In my eyes, anything that is highly cyclical in nature would not be a fit based on that, this includes consumer discretionary like SBUX and TGT, and most of tech. I think you had HD in the past too, that one is also cyclical and the stock price can fall quickly. Financials, including banks are highly cyclical. If you want maximum stability on that front, COST, PEP, other consumer staples Utilities and healthcare make more sense.
Yea that’s exactly my thoughts too. I mean, isn’t this a dividend portfolio?! Lol. From a dividend investing perspective, TROW is one of the best plays out there, especially during times like this when you can get a decent yield due to the massive drop in price. I was shocked to see him wanting to exit out of this stock. Literally makes little sense to me.
@@JosephCarlsonShow remember what Buffett said? If you can’t stand stocks drop 50% in price, by all means don’t be an investor. Not to mention this drop is only temporary. TROW is a company with an excellent long track record of dividend growth and consecutive payout. Sorry bro but this decision made little sense to me lol
Joseph, you said that you are looking for an exit from TROW so next time it gets higher you will sell, and the proceed to say you dont time the market. Isnt that the same?
If Trow was the market that would be market timing. But trow is one company. I’m always an advocate of timing individual companies, trying to buy them low and sell them high.
Great Video Joseph! Very well articulated; I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I'll be 56 in August and I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the looming inflation and recession; my goal is to have at least $1 million by the age of 60.
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue-wetting profit especially in this down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market experts
@@joshspring7686 Yes, I've used such expert, an investment adviser at that, and she really worked magic on my portfolio, initially I was always in and out of the market, selling at a complete loss but for the past 2years I've been mostly in the green, earning steady profit irrespective of market movement thus gaining over $850k+ in the past 2years.
@@chrisbluebird5037 That's mind blowing! how'd you go about getting a proper investment-adviser like that? I've had plans to touch base with one, I'm just not sure how to go about it, I don't mind looking up this one that guides you.
@@miawhitlock9140 My Financial Advisor is Jessica Meador Jones I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
@@chrisbluebird5037 Thank you, I researched Jessica Meador Jones and I went over her site and qualifications, she seems pretty tight and I've scheduled a call.
LVMH seems like it checks most the compounding boxes. Slightly cyclical, but the century+ brand and incessant demand for its products makes it a solid choice IMO. Would be interested to see your analysis.
Love your channel, great content! Don't like this play on CHD, better opportunities out there. My FV calc of CHD is around $50 still a long way to get there.
I've seen so many Stocktubers channels, around 15, and only 3 of those have actually been helpful and taught me something. You are one of those. Thank you.
@@JosephCarlsonShow Thanks, I thought you would have, just dont remember seeing it in an upload, but may have missed it. I've got 80 shares total that I bought way back at about $27.xx I wanted to switch up my reits a bit and after your research and doing my own it looked like a no brains winner for a reopen play. Still holding, and plan on holding long term. Have a great weekend Joseph!
People with FOMO are such losers.Don't try to time the market. July was positive for stocks. Don't know what August will bring and I really don't care because my timeline isn't short.
No guarantee that the days will be before or after a bear market, also no guarantee that they will be consecutive or at least all in the same couple of months or a year or two. Also “the best” days are during the times with a lot of market volatility, where the market may also go downwards. Please just stop with the “if you miss the X best days in…”
@@gagnepaingilly You can look her up as she has an official webpage for consultations. Also, she is verifiable across various Financial Advisory bodies; like FINRA & SEC. According to Warren Buffet "I don’t think most people are in a position to pick single stocks. A few are, maybe, but on balance, I think people are much better off buying a cross-section of America and just forgetting about it" In Other words, you need expert hands to be able to outperform the index.
At a tremendous expense, time & money, I have to maintain almost everything in my life: home, cars, health, job, clothing, relationships, business, social media profiles, and more. The ONLY exception I can think of is core dividend stocks. They pay me while requiring NOTHING of me.
The intelligent investor realizes that stocks become riskier, not less, as their prices rise and less risky, not more, as their prices fall. - Benjamin Graham.
Who cares about dividends, the stock price literally goes down the same amount you are being paid, why do people like dividends? Why aren’t more in favor of share buybacks?
Hey Joseph, love the videos. At what point would you considering buying back into bonds for the portfolio? With interest rates rising, bond yields have gotten more and more attractive. I know I'm definitely considering adding some to further diversify my portfolio and help against risk. Thanks.
TROW is one of the markets top performers over the past 30 years. They have a dividend that grows double digits most years. Did you not realize this stock would face volatility in times where growth stocks go out of favor when you bought this? Seems like the time to be adding aggressively, not selling. Just look at the drawdowns and recoveries they had in 2000, 2008, and 2018.
Completely agree. And BTW you could make the Same Flux arguement for Berkshire As well. Just Look at the drop they did in March/April 2020 and where it is now.
I agree with you Scott, I am a growth investor and my portfolio is up 19.72% in the last month. Carlson you need to be doubling down on TROW, and not pulling out.
I really like your philosophy of sitting between value and growth. Also fine tuning the portfolio as the macro changes. Been watching each and every video last few months!
Hi Joseph Carlson! Your portofolio has a lot of companies, and throughout the last few years on youtube It looks like it grows and grows. Do you have any companie you're thinking about leaving behind in the future, removing them from your portofolio.
Yes, companies that probably won’t be in my portfolio in a couple years: JP Morgan Trow Disney Maybe Target. These are holds for now. I want to sell them at good times. But they’re likely companies I won’t be holding forever.
I have to be honest Joseph, this one seems extremely overvalued. It grows so slowly yet it is trading at 30X earnings. It also has a lot of competition with Costco's Kirkland, Tide from P&G just to name a few.
Isn’t PG one of the biggest holdings in SCHD? I look at this pick and for me unless it was gonna make up a super considerable tilt I’d just dump it into SCHD and not think twice.
@@jamesandersonwalsh yeah for sure I think SCHD is a good etf. If that's gonna be one of his biggest holding what is even the point of him buying this one
It seems extremely overvalued if you don't look at what you're actually buying and you compare every company on a 1:1 basis. There's too many TH-cam channels equating low PE to mean "value". It's not. Look at Intel and Meta this week. Low PE does not mean value, and it does not mean margin of safety. PE ratio is similar to looking at the price per square feet of a house. When you look at buying a home, do you only look at buying whatever is the cheapest per square feet? Even if the house has a mold problem, cracked foundation, and termites? Or do you look at the actual quality of the home, the location, beyond just the price per square feet? CHD has compounded at 17% for 20 years beating the QQQ and SPY. It did that while being "expensive" compared to worse quality stocks like Intel the entire time. The company has 12 power brands that do tens of millions in revenue per quarter. Over 80 brands beyond that, and they constantly do acquisition of new brands. They're non-cyclical and have EPS growth every year. Their net conversion of Net Income into FCF is 110%. They have minimal leverage and could pay back debts within 2 years. They hold largely essential brands that can't be replaced or have their life extended during recessions. They have pricing power, and have raised prices multiple times this year to offset inflation. They post high amounts of consistent and predictable FCF every single quarter, come rain or shine, bull market or recession. That FCF is returned through dividends/buybacks. CHD has a 4.6% FCF yield right now. FCF will continue to grow YoY. My purchase of CHD was after doing an analysis on different options of compounders. Here's a list I went through: Costco Microsoft Apple Pepsi Vici Church & Dwight McCormick Estee Lauder Dominos Hershey I went through all of those, some of which I own, some I don't. McCormick is another extremely durable company that is a compounder, but I didn't like the fact it has so much exposure to China. When I listened to their earnings call they went on and on about China. Church & Dwight has no exposure to China, they make their money in US and Europe. That's something I liked to see. Hershey is another contender. I think it's great, but the earnings and cash flows have not been nearly as consistent as church & dwight. CHD has the absolute most consistent earnings out of the options I do not own, the only company that's comparable is Costco (which I already have a large position and is more expensive). This wasn't an impulse buy. This was the conclusion of looking through dozens of companies, listening to earnings calls, looking at all their financials, looking at their product line, earnings forecasts. CHD came out on top on most of the factors I was looking for, thats why I decided to add it to the portfolio and start to DCA.
@@JosephCarlsonShow I will disect each point you made individually. 1. You are absolutely right that there a lot of braindead value investors who just look at the PE ratio as the sole gauge of if they buy the company. If I wanted I could make an ETF of all the PE of 1 stocks and chances are I would have a bunch of bankrupt, declining companies, that are highly leveraged. This is not a risk-averse way to invest and has several problems. 2. The P/FCF is a relevant factor however when combined with a lot of other factors. At the end of the day a Dollar is a Dollar. The question we have to ask ourselves is will the company be able to consistently generate a increasing number of dollars in the future with conservative assumptions. If the answer is yes than that is obviously a positive think. Do I think CHD fits this bill? I think they will be able to increase their FCF in the future but that doesn't mean I can just assign an assasine multiple to that FCF. You can justify paying a higher P/FCF for qualities such as monopoly like characteristics, brand value, switching costs, network effect, intangible assets, barriers to entry etc. You can also take into account the leverage of the business when determining P/FCF. For example Google has a huge amount of net cash on its balance sheet whereas CHD has a small amount of net debt on its balance sheet. Ford may look cheap but it actually has an astounding amount of debt making their true market cap much higher. We are not investing in this company so they can put all their FCF back into paying debt, we are here for shareholder distributions and growth. 3. The examples you brought up of Meta and Intel are interesting. Meta before they started excessively focusing on the Metaverse(and before they crashed) could've certainly fit the bill of a company by your own valuation standards was a good buy. It was between a 4-6 FCF yield. It also had no leverage basically. They grew revenue incredibly fast every year and earnings. They have a great moat and great brands with Instragram, WhatsApp, and Faceboook all being used by 1/2 the world's population. They were also beginning to aggressively buyback the shares. This would've been a good investment by your logic. Intel however I will give you is a value trap. They have no proven management team, they have amazing amounts of competition nibbling away at their market share on all fronts. There is no way that I could own this company. 4. While it is not the end all be all, one of the better ways to assess a ball-park valuation for a company is with a DCF. I have noticed on other videos you used this tool, but not in this portfolio. Both and exit multiple and a perpetual growth model could be appropriate however I will stick with exit-multiple model since it is simplest for everyone to understand. In order for CHD to generate a market beating return, I had to come up with some absurd parameters for my valuation. I had to assume they would grow at an 8% clip for 10 years, something they haven't done in the past ever. I also assumed that over that time period they would expand their margins to an average of 22% over that 10 year phrame. This is not a conservative way to value a company(especially given the fact that competition from Costco or others may prevent them from exercising their pricing power to its fullest extent). I furthermore had to assume extreme multiple expansion. As you indicated this company is trading a 4.6% FCF yield. I had to assume this would lower to a 3.33% FCF yield. Again these assumptions are absolutely insane, and more conservative assumptions would yield the company needs to fall in 1/2 before entering. 5. Just because a company did well in the past does not mean it will do well in the future(Netflix, Adobe). You are wrong that it has always traded richly. According to Macrotrends the multiple for this stock has expanded since 2010 which is probably responsible for some of the compounding you speak of. To assume multiple expansion in your valuation is not conservative at all because as the company grows larger it becomes more difficult to generate as high revenue growth. 6. I cannot speak to the quality of their brands however I know they have strong competition. According to this www.statista.com/statistics/188713/leading-liquid-laundry-detergent-vendors-in-the-united-states-in-2011/, This company does not have a leading market share for their most reputable product Arm & Hammer. There are several competitors in this space like P&G, Henkel, and Costco(whose product is made by Henkel), and other private label stuff. This is what they legitimately wrote in their annual report Our competitors in the Consumer Domestic and Consumer International segments include, among others,Procter & Gamble Company (“P&G”), The Clorox Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, S.C. Johnson & Son, Inc., Nestle Purina PetCare Company and Nestle Health Science, Henkel, Reckitt Benckiser Group plc, Johnson & Johnson, Ansell Limited, Pfizer Inc., Bayer AG, Alere Inc., NBTY, Inc., Koninklijke Philips N.V., Unilever PLC, Sanofi and Pharmavite LLC. Many of these companies have greater financial resources than we do and have the capacity to outspend us in their attempts to gain market share. In addition, the growing number of sales channels and business models, such as niche brands, internet-only brands and retailer co-developed and owned brands, have increased competition in certain product categories, particularly within personal care, specialty hair care and dietary supplements, from less well capitalized competitors. If the company themselves is admitting their moat is not as strong as we might think, then I think there is a serious issue. 7. I definitely agree with you that this company having no exposure to China is a good thing. In conclusion CHD may be a household staple product, but it is trading incredibly richly from any valuation measure. Just using PE is obviously not a way to assess a business however this company's P/FCF is not justified by its moat, growth, or any combination of the two. Just because it has done well in the past does not mean it will continue to compound. Just because you like the business does not mean you can justify paying any price for it. If you have to make crazy assumptions to justify your investment, then that means it is probably overvalued.
CHD? It looks overvalued by most metrics - P/E 5Yr Aver, EPS Yield, Dividend Yield Theory, EV/EBIT, P/FCF etc. There are so many other undervalued options now in the market.
never time the market. keep investing (in good positive cash flow/boring companies) whenever you have extra cash. Check back on your portfolio once every 2-3 weeks. Do a yearly summary. Profit and retire happy overtime.
Not sure why you don't pop up more on the TH-cam algorithm. I haven't looked Church & Dwight Co (CHD) yet. Here is what I see. The 5YR P/E Ratio is a bit high and 5 YR Price to Free Cash Flow is slight high but looks pretty good. Thanks!
All those videos on TH-cam over the past month with a thumbnail with their head in their hands and flames and big, sensational headlines like "Next Leg Down!" and "Crash is coming, sell now!" look really silly right now. Hopefully people stop clicking on those.
Glad I didn't know AMD was cyclical when I bought in 2017 @ $13 per share and it was obvious that AMD with Ryzen was back the ring with Intel and Nvidia.
No joke, these past couple of weeks, I've just been glued to my phone waiting for some big price drops to add to my portfolio. I missed out on adding more AMZN and GOOG. Going back to DCA starting next month though so I can just buy a bit and forget about it for a few years.
Wow, joseph you have added a lot of companies to the portfolio recently with Pepsico, CN and now Church and Dwight, and you added Dominos and Starbux earlier in 2022.
Been watchin u since episode1… u never fail us with the bevy of information u provide… your ability to break things down and make them simple is impecable .. thank u brother
i was just getting videos suggestions of countless channels talking about how the market is going to crash and blahblha. Today my portfolio is 10%up and i still in the green.
CHD is expensive with PE about 28, but I think Joseph's point is that it's worth paying for quality and stability. Analysts are critical of CHD: saying it lacks the scale of it's larger competitors, has inferior pricing/negotiating power, and has no moat. Despite all this, CHD has a nice track record behind it, but looking forward these are challenging times and CHD is not well positioned with rising supply costs and consumers choosing cheaper brands. I see them as a clever growth-by-acquisition company, funded by FCF. I'd say there's more risk and more potential growth than first appears. I'll continue to watch them, but don't have the risk appetite at this price.
Forgive me if I missed it but it would be nice to give us the current yield of the portfolio when you give the brief summary of it each time. Also some sort of natural income growth measure would be great every now and again. So growth in income that has income derived from inflows stripped out. To me these figures are great motivation and great ways to track progress.
Sign up for FTX and use the referral code "carlson" to get $10 when you do your first $100 trade.
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You gain access to qualtrim.com which just had a major update, it's received very good feedback so far. Try it out risk free.
I thought FTX cut all ties with TH-camrs? Is that not true?
Joseph, I am a new follower. I am curious when did you start the Dividend Portfolio.
The best investment one can do right now is investing on Forex trading though stocks are good but ever since I swapped to Forex, I've seen so much difference
I have been making a lot profit through forex trading which has been the main source of my income
Actually an expert broker handles my forex investments while I invest in some real estate with the profit I make
John Hook handles my investment portfolio, he's an expert when it comes to trading forex.
He made over $12k with my $2k start up capital
He's available on G mail
Great video! any advice on other stocks to acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation? Roughly $120K in my portfoIio are in tech/TSLA stockss
The markett is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financiaI-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
@David cho That's grand! I believe the high-value gains are backed by years of study/experience in knowing what makes what tick. the portfolio-advisr that guides you is who though
@David cho Hi, I looked up Diana Claire Lougen and she actually looks really familiar, think I’ve come across her on Tv or somewhere…Anyhoo thanks for sharing.
Jospeh, do you calculate valuation before you make a purchase?
@@Because4545 He’ll convince himself to “exit this position” in a couple of days
Joseph, what are your thoughts on 3M?
The S&P is up 13 1/2% from June 15 low. When are we buying the high flying Chipotle CMG?
Are those big dips not great for a dividends investor?? You can buy in big during times of extreme downwards moving, than you hold untill it happens again and you add more.. in the mean time just enjoy the dividend right??
But only buy quality dividends .
Joseph, the new holding is not represented in the dividend portfolio pie, could you update the link? Thanks.
So are you gonna take gains on VICI again?
Not this time. My day trading days are over.
Is it worth buying US div stocks in Canada? There is a 15% dividend withhold for taxes
I would never touch CHD until 75$/share
So far in the past few months I’ve slowed down buying to only maybe an IPO or something I already own that has been overly beaten down. Only money I’m consistently putting into the market are through my financial advisor.
Same here sold my stocks earlier and my strategy ever since has been pretty much buying Gold and silver to protect my weałth but if I could come up with a way to stay invested and be profitable that would be brilliant.
Last year a colleague introduced me to a financial advisor Camille Anne Hector. With her help I have been able to diversify by investing in different market and asset classes while also keeping an open eye for attractive stock picks. she is quite known so you can find more about her online.
Thanks for the recommendation I found her website easily online and I’m really satisfied with her reviews and certifications, this is a much safer and easier way for me to get back in this very volatile market.
Please is she readily available? I made the regret of my life tackling this volatile market by myself now it’s been red after red. I would love to get guidance considering how bad I have messed up my portfolio.
Glad I found her recommendations earlier on. I joined her program March 2020, I’m so glad I’m following her and making my way through all the information provided. I love her approach and although I have little to invest I have taken my portfolio to 740k$
Hi Joseph! Great show. But I do not agree with your final conclusion on TROW, but I am glad that you didn't say it was a "bad company", but that it doesn't meet your investment criteria due to its volatility and your investment strategy and goals. I respect that. But I do want to point out that volitility is your friend in a dollar-cost-averaging dividend strategy. It allows an investor to lower their cost basis over time for their dividend stocks, and increasing their relative dividend yield over time.
Very much loving this new video cadence, Joseph. Between your 2 channels there's a new video almost every day and as always there are nice nuggets of wisdom in them.
There a company called dwight and schrute and they sell beets
5:44 If you can't understand that some companies like AMD are a completely new from before, I doubt your fundamental analysis. The previous AMD was dead in 2015, and I tend to look at AMD as a new company that has been on the market for seven or eight years.
Those EPS declines are not a single company problem, if you have heard of one thing called the .com bubble and another called the financial crisis. Few companies in that industry eps will do much better than this.
The chip industry itself is also a cyclical industry, which may not be the same as the restaurant supermarket you can only understand. But a cyclical industry doesn't mean the market won't grow in size, or that it's hard to predict. Instead, it's one of the fastest-growing industries of this generation.
Historical bias, company movements and stock prices have nothing to do with movements and stock prices over the past decade. You're not the only one who makes decisions based on past stability and growth. Its just not something work.
According to the New York Times, the averg savings of a couple reaching retirement is $104,000, I’m closing in on my retirement and I’m under pressure to grow my reserve of $300k, albeit the capital gains you can make on growth stocks far exceed dividend yields, and even in downtrends folks still pull off 6-7figures gains in months, surely the risk is much greater, but I’d love to know how.
so long all risks are calculated and systems are put in the place, you'd surely rake it in
there're tons of avenues to capitalize on in a downtrend to make substantial gains, but these opportunities and trades are successfully carried out by pros.
Totally, my holdings were down alot and I sold at a loss multiple times, up until I sought out a coach featured on Bloomberg, she devised a adjustable structure that matched my goals and retirement plans, it’s been 3years following her guidelines and I’ve gained over $850K+ net profit.
I mainly hold long-term, but with these crazy inflated standard of living, I'd like to spread across short term gains as well which would really go a longway, could you share more details on this coach
The coach that guides me is Denise Sharnell Proctor, it shouldn't be a hassle finding her, she's quite known among her peers, so just search her name.
More you add new positions to your portfolio, harder it will be to beat the S&P. That was your goal if I remember correctly.
His goal is to have a dividend portfolio to eventually be able to live off of the income
This is another portfolio
Per FTX, because FTX does not use PFOF , they will start charging 0.05% fee on the nominal value of stock trades. That is if you buy 30 shares of Amazon at $130, you fee for buying Amazon is ($130x30x0.05%)= $1.95 per trade . Just putting this out there
That’s not entirely correct. They charge .05c OR 1 penny per share, whatever is cheaper. So if you purchased 30 shares of Amazon you’d pay .30c.
Technically it's the same on RobinHood they got banned from having commission free trading
@@JosephCarlsonShow what the advantage of paying FTX if most other platforms are for free?
I pay $ 9.99 a trade with t.d,direct investing..I USE TO pay with Scotia $ 43.00 a trade..
@@patriciapeever9560 - TY for your reply. I’m still confused, why pay for your trades when there are so many good platforms available that don’t charge anything?
Thx for the video! what's the VICI's fair price?
Joseph what do you get at Texas Roadhouse? (Entree, side, etc.)
Hello, I wanted to ask you that if you sell calls as well in your portfolio, OR it's only bought and held for a long duration of time. Especially now when valuations are extremely high as compared to the current negative GDP. How is it that you protect yourself? You understand that market goes through different cycles of growth. Especially when we printed 2 Trillion $ and all that 2 Trillion $ was wiped out when markets sold off. Though it's true that one can buy a house and keep it over a long period of time and it will always be profitable trade but there is an opportunity cost as well which one has to pay when holding such assets for a long period of time. I do appreciate your transparency.
Burry didnt say earnings will drop this q… we will see in a 3-4 quarters when interest rates hits in real effect.
Ha I’m sort of the opposite. I have no interest in VICI but I’m buying into TROW. I’m not sure we are looking at the same graph for TROW. it seemed to be going up and to the right pretty regularly.
If you like CHD , you will also like SHW. SHW is a serious compounder. You can also swap TROW for BLK
Should have kept WM. I am still in the green with that.
Was HD ever in the portfolio? What happened to it?
I think selling TROW would be a mistake. If you're looking at yourself as a long-term investor, a few quarters of declining EPS should not scare you. TROW has a great management, stellar dividend record and EVA (Economic Value Added) growth over the years. I personally think this is the time to buy it, not to sell it. Same goes for Blackrock.
You talked about T Rowe Price in a negative light due to earnings coming down which is fair. But you then said about it wiping out "your gains", I thought you were focused on dividends, not paper gains? TROW has great dividend growth over time, many consecutive years of dividend growth, a very healthy payout ratio, and a very healthy balance sheet. But dividends do not matter in this case to you because of what the stock price does on any given day or market cycle? If thats the case, not only is TROW not the right investment for you, many stocks in most sectors are not for you.
What other sector/stocks are not the right investment for me?
@@JosephCarlsonShow you can decide whats right for you of course. From what I got from the video, you don't like a share price that can go down as easily as TROW. In my eyes, anything that is highly cyclical in nature would not be a fit based on that, this includes consumer discretionary like SBUX and TGT, and most of tech. I think you had HD in the past too, that one is also cyclical and the stock price can fall quickly. Financials, including banks are highly cyclical. If you want maximum stability on that front, COST, PEP, other consumer staples Utilities and healthcare make more sense.
Yea that’s exactly my thoughts too. I mean, isn’t this a dividend portfolio?! Lol. From a dividend investing perspective, TROW is one of the best plays out there, especially during times like this when you can get a decent yield due to the massive drop in price. I was shocked to see him wanting to exit out of this stock. Literally makes little sense to me.
@@JosephCarlsonShow remember what Buffett said? If you can’t stand stocks drop 50% in price, by all means don’t be an investor. Not to mention this drop is only temporary. TROW is a company with an excellent long track record of dividend growth and consecutive payout. Sorry bro but this decision made little sense to me lol
Do be fair, it's not just price that he focused on, but also earnings. Earnings have a history of crashing along with the market.
really appreciate you explaining your exit strategy on TROW. TY
Joseph I just added CHD to my portfolio last week! I would rather hold CHD than DIS.
Better add some with the big dip today
Hey Joseph curious to head your thoughts on 3M stock, large dividend and had a big spike this week. Great video.
He has talked about 3m a lot in the past I believe
Are your two best performers MSFT and AAPL?
Joseph, you said that you are looking for an exit from TROW so next time it gets higher you will sell, and the proceed to say you dont time the market. Isnt that the same?
If Trow was the market that would be market timing. But trow is one company. I’m always an advocate of timing individual companies, trying to buy them low and sell them high.
Great Video Joseph! Very well articulated; I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I'll be 56 in August and I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the looming inflation and recession; my goal is to have at least $1 million by the age of 60.
There are a lot of strategies to make tongue-wetting profit especially in this down market, but such sophisticated trades can only be carried out by proper market experts
@@joshspring7686 Yes, I've used such expert, an investment adviser at that, and she really worked magic on my portfolio, initially I was always in and out of the market, selling at a complete loss but for the past 2years I've been mostly in the green, earning steady profit irrespective of market movement thus gaining over $850k+ in the past 2years.
@@chrisbluebird5037 That's mind blowing! how'd you go about getting a proper investment-adviser like that? I've had plans to touch base with one, I'm just not sure how to go about it, I don't mind looking up this one that guides you.
@@miawhitlock9140 My Financial Advisor is Jessica Meador Jones I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
@@chrisbluebird5037 Thank you, I researched Jessica Meador Jones and I went over her site and qualifications, she seems pretty tight and I've scheduled a call.
LVMH seems like it checks most the compounding boxes. Slightly cyclical, but the century+ brand and incessant demand for its products makes it a solid choice IMO. Would be interested to see your analysis.
Love your channel, great content!
Don't like this play on CHD, better opportunities out there. My FV calc of CHD is around $50 still a long way to get there.
I've seen so many Stocktubers channels, around 15, and only 3 of those have actually been helpful and taught me something. You are one of those. Thank you.
What other 2 do you like?
does anyone know why VICI is not affected by the high mortgage rate?
Do we know if Vici was impacted by the flash flood in Vegas?
You should look into HYGV!!!!
Can confirm: Virtually, every time I go to Texas Roadhouse, it’s always packed + 99% of the time you have to wait. The food is worth it though 😋
Those rolls are so addictive.
Whenever I go to RICK it is also packed
@@qt5570 🤣
I like going all in in a stock and then looking up what they do.
This is by far one of my favorite comments because of how true it is.
Stanley Druckenmiller does do it ;) 27:00
great as always!
Hey Joseph, Did you ever report when you bought back into vici after you had sold it? Thanks,
I bought back in over the following two weeks. Back to full position.
@@JosephCarlsonShow Thanks, I thought you would have, just dont remember seeing it in an upload, but may have missed it. I've got 80 shares total that I bought way back at about $27.xx I wanted to switch up my reits a bit and after your research and doing my own it looked like a no brains winner for a reopen play. Still holding, and plan on holding long term. Have a great weekend Joseph!
FCF is good, but it's PE is way way to high. It's in very over valued territory. I like to add just when a stock is undervalued.
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Nice ending to the video, I love when you put out this message
why not add Kimberley Clark?
People with FOMO are such losers.Don't try to time the market.
July was positive for stocks. Don't know what August will bring and I really don't care because my timeline isn't short.
Joseph, do you know if FTX opens accounts to a NRA (foreigners) ?
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I thought your mystery stock was RCI Holdings (RICK).
Hey Joseph! Can you provide an update on your Roth IRA?
My Roth is now the story fund.
Damn. making $20k+ a month through patreon thats crazy
do you like zim? its a dividend beast trading at A 1 pe
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Thx for the Vici tip, i got into Vici whatching your videos.Up over 30% atm.
Thank You
is your overall return in the green now?
No guarantee that the days will be before or after a bear market, also no guarantee that they will be consecutive or at least all in the same couple of months or a year or two. Also “the best” days are during the times with a lot of market volatility, where the market may also go downwards. Please just stop with the “if you miss the X best days in…”
Exactly, such a faulty statistic, maybe you miss the 10 best days but you also miss the slew of bad days wrapped around them.
@@emilyjacobsen9955
@@kansasmile
@@blaquopaque
@@gagnepaingilly You can look her up as she has an official webpage for consultations. Also, she is verifiable across various Financial Advisory bodies; like FINRA & SEC. According to Warren Buffet "I don’t think most people are in a position to pick single stocks. A few are, maybe, but on balance, I think people are much better off buying a cross-section of America and just forgetting about it" In Other words, you need expert hands to be able to outperform the index.
What is your opinion on agriculture stocks? Like fertilizer producers (especially of the organic variety).
Fertilizers of all stripes will be in extreme short supply given the geopolitical folderol with the CCP and Russia.
Great dividend stocks you should consider and their dividend yield. KMB, UPS, IBM, VZ...
At a tremendous expense, time & money, I have to maintain almost everything in my life: home, cars, health, job, clothing, relationships, business, social media profiles, and more. The ONLY exception I can think of is core dividend stocks. They pay me while requiring NOTHING of me.
The intelligent investor realizes that stocks become riskier, not less, as their prices rise and less risky, not more, as their prices fall. - Benjamin Graham.
The sign of a good investor: having the mental ability to keep buying stocks even when everybody around you is panicking and preaching doom and gloom.
What about $KDP
Who cares about dividends, the stock price literally goes down the same amount you are being paid, why do people like dividends? Why aren’t more in favor of share buybacks?
Hey Joseph, love the videos. At what point would you considering buying back into bonds for the portfolio? With interest rates rising, bond yields have gotten more and more attractive. I know I'm definitely considering adding some to further diversify my portfolio and help against risk. Thanks.
probably never, they aren't even close to inflation rates currently. Beyond that, why buy a bond when you can buy MSFT?
No Meta?
3:38
TROW is one of the markets top performers over the past 30 years. They have a dividend that grows double digits most years. Did you not realize this stock would face volatility in times where growth stocks go out of favor when you bought this?
Seems like the time to be adding aggressively, not selling. Just look at the drawdowns and recoveries they had in 2000, 2008, and 2018.
Completely agree. And BTW you could make the Same Flux arguement for Berkshire As well. Just Look at the drop they did in March/April 2020 and where it is now.
I agree with you Scott, I am a growth investor and my portfolio is up 19.72% in the last month. Carlson you need to be doubling down on TROW, and not pulling out.
I really like your philosophy of sitting between value and growth. Also fine tuning the portfolio as the macro changes. Been watching each and every video last few months!
Why don’t you invest in Berkshire Hathaway?
You should check out waste management. It’s the best compounder. Has beat s&p 500 every year.
Texas Roadhouse = super solid food, service, and atmosphere. That equates to consistent earnings and repeat customers. Love their food.
DIS - Go woke… Go Broke!
Hi Joseph Carlson!
Your portofolio has a lot of companies, and throughout the last few years on youtube It looks like it grows and grows. Do you have any companie you're thinking about leaving behind in the future, removing them from your portofolio.
Yes, companies that probably won’t be in my portfolio in a couple years:
JP Morgan
Trow
Disney
Maybe Target.
These are holds for now. I want to sell them at good times. But they’re likely companies I won’t be holding forever.
4-6 percent free cashflow seems super low to me.
I have to be honest Joseph, this one seems extremely overvalued. It grows so slowly yet it is trading at 30X earnings. It also has a lot of competition with Costco's Kirkland, Tide from P&G just to name a few.
Isn’t PG one of the biggest holdings in SCHD? I look at this pick and for me unless it was gonna make up a super considerable tilt I’d just dump it into SCHD and not think twice.
@@jamesandersonwalsh yeah for sure I think SCHD is a good etf. If that's gonna be one of his biggest holding what is even the point of him buying this one
@@xxIFNTxx I didn't see any news articles on CHD.
It seems extremely overvalued if you don't look at what you're actually buying and you compare every company on a 1:1 basis.
There's too many TH-cam channels equating low PE to mean "value". It's not. Look at Intel and Meta this week. Low PE does not mean value, and it does not mean margin of safety.
PE ratio is similar to looking at the price per square feet of a house.
When you look at buying a home, do you only look at buying whatever is the cheapest per square feet? Even if the house has a mold problem, cracked foundation, and termites? Or do you look at the actual quality of the home, the location, beyond just the price per square feet?
CHD has compounded at 17% for 20 years beating the QQQ and SPY. It did that while being "expensive" compared to worse quality stocks like Intel the entire time.
The company has 12 power brands that do tens of millions in revenue per quarter. Over 80 brands beyond that, and they constantly do acquisition of new brands.
They're non-cyclical and have EPS growth every year. Their net conversion of Net Income into FCF is 110%.
They have minimal leverage and could pay back debts within 2 years.
They hold largely essential brands that can't be replaced or have their life extended during recessions.
They have pricing power, and have raised prices multiple times this year to offset inflation.
They post high amounts of consistent and predictable FCF every single quarter, come rain or shine, bull market or recession. That FCF is returned through dividends/buybacks.
CHD has a 4.6% FCF yield right now. FCF will continue to grow YoY.
My purchase of CHD was after doing an analysis on different options of compounders.
Here's a list I went through:
Costco
Microsoft
Apple
Pepsi
Vici
Church & Dwight
McCormick
Estee Lauder
Dominos
Hershey
I went through all of those, some of which I own, some I don't. McCormick is another extremely durable company that is a compounder, but I didn't like the fact it has so much exposure to China. When I listened to their earnings call they went on and on about China. Church & Dwight has no exposure to China, they make their money in US and Europe. That's something I liked to see.
Hershey is another contender. I think it's great, but the earnings and cash flows have not been nearly as consistent as church & dwight. CHD has the absolute most consistent earnings out of the options I do not own, the only company that's comparable is Costco (which I already have a large position and is more expensive).
This wasn't an impulse buy. This was the conclusion of looking through dozens of companies, listening to earnings calls, looking at all their financials, looking at their product line, earnings forecasts. CHD came out on top on most of the factors I was looking for, thats why I decided to add it to the portfolio and start to DCA.
@@JosephCarlsonShow I will disect each point you made individually.
1. You are absolutely right that there a lot of braindead value investors who just look at the PE ratio as the sole gauge of if they buy the company. If I wanted I could make an ETF of all the PE of 1 stocks and chances are I would have a bunch of bankrupt, declining companies, that are highly leveraged. This is not a risk-averse way to invest and has several problems.
2. The P/FCF is a relevant factor however when combined with a lot of other factors. At the end of the day a Dollar is a Dollar. The question we have to ask ourselves is will the company be able to consistently generate a increasing number of dollars in the future with conservative assumptions. If the answer is yes than that is obviously a positive think. Do I think CHD fits this bill? I think they will be able to increase their FCF in the future but that doesn't mean I can just assign an assasine multiple to that FCF. You can justify paying a higher P/FCF for qualities such as monopoly like characteristics, brand value, switching costs, network effect, intangible assets, barriers to entry etc. You can also take into account the leverage of the business when determining P/FCF. For example Google has a huge amount of net cash on its balance sheet whereas CHD has a small amount of net debt on its balance sheet. Ford may look cheap but it actually has an astounding amount of debt making their true market cap much higher. We are not investing in this company so they can put all their FCF back into paying debt, we are here for shareholder distributions and growth.
3. The examples you brought up of Meta and Intel are interesting.
Meta before they started excessively focusing on the Metaverse(and before they crashed) could've certainly fit the bill of a company by your own valuation standards was a good buy. It was between a 4-6 FCF yield. It also had no leverage basically. They grew revenue incredibly fast every year and earnings. They have a great moat and great brands with Instragram, WhatsApp, and Faceboook all being used by 1/2 the world's population. They were also beginning to aggressively buyback the shares. This would've been a good investment by your logic.
Intel however I will give you is a value trap. They have no proven management team, they have amazing amounts of competition nibbling away at their market share on all fronts. There is no way that I could own this company.
4. While it is not the end all be all, one of the better ways to assess a ball-park valuation for a company is with a DCF. I have noticed on other videos you used this tool, but not in this portfolio. Both and exit multiple and a perpetual growth model could be appropriate however I will stick with exit-multiple model since it is simplest for everyone to understand. In order for CHD to generate a market beating return, I had to come up with some absurd parameters for my valuation. I had to assume they would grow at an 8% clip for 10 years, something they haven't done in the past ever.
I also assumed that over that time period they would expand their margins to an average of 22% over that 10 year phrame. This is not a conservative way to value a company(especially given the fact that competition from Costco or others may prevent them from exercising their pricing power to its fullest extent). I furthermore had to assume extreme multiple expansion. As you indicated this company is trading a 4.6% FCF yield. I had to assume this would lower to a 3.33% FCF yield. Again these assumptions are absolutely insane, and more conservative assumptions would yield the company needs to fall in 1/2 before entering.
5. Just because a company did well in the past does not mean it will do well in the future(Netflix, Adobe). You are wrong that it has always traded richly. According to Macrotrends the multiple for this stock has expanded since 2010 which is probably responsible for some of the compounding you speak of. To assume multiple expansion in your valuation is not conservative at all because as the company grows larger it becomes more difficult to generate as high revenue growth.
6. I cannot speak to the quality of their brands however I know they have strong competition. According to this www.statista.com/statistics/188713/leading-liquid-laundry-detergent-vendors-in-the-united-states-in-2011/, This company does not have a leading market share for their most reputable product Arm & Hammer. There are several competitors in this space like P&G, Henkel, and Costco(whose product is made by Henkel), and other private label stuff.
This is what they legitimately wrote in their annual report
Our competitors in the Consumer Domestic and Consumer International segments include, among others,Procter & Gamble Company (“P&G”), The Clorox Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, S.C. Johnson & Son, Inc., Nestle Purina PetCare Company and Nestle Health Science, Henkel, Reckitt Benckiser Group plc, Johnson & Johnson, Ansell Limited, Pfizer Inc., Bayer AG, Alere Inc., NBTY, Inc., Koninklijke Philips N.V., Unilever PLC, Sanofi and Pharmavite LLC. Many of these companies have greater financial resources than we do and have the capacity to outspend us in their attempts to gain market share. In addition, the growing number of sales channels and business models, such as niche brands, internet-only brands and retailer co-developed and owned brands, have increased competition in certain product categories, particularly within personal care, specialty hair care and dietary supplements, from less well capitalized competitors.
If the company themselves is admitting their moat is not as strong as we might think, then I think there is a serious issue.
7. I definitely agree with you that this company having no exposure to China is a good thing.
In conclusion CHD may be a household staple product, but it is trading incredibly richly from any valuation measure. Just using PE is obviously not a way to assess a business however this company's P/FCF is not justified by its moat, growth, or any combination of the two. Just because it has done well in the past does not mean it will continue to compound. Just because you like the business does not mean you can justify paying any price for it. If you have to make crazy assumptions to justify your investment, then that means it is probably overvalued.
CHD is a good company, however at this price I would not buy it.
CHD? It looks overvalued by most metrics - P/E 5Yr Aver, EPS Yield, Dividend Yield Theory, EV/EBIT, P/FCF etc. There are so many other undervalued options now in the market.
Like this move. 👌
Jake Broe recommended you to me and I like what I am seeing!
Their pe is way too high
never time the market. keep investing (in good positive cash flow/boring companies) whenever you have extra cash. Check back on your portfolio once every 2-3 weeks. Do a yearly summary. Profit and retire happy overtime.
Never say never
22:52 Why does tom lee have one eye going up and the other eye going down?
He is reflecting the stock market.
When looking on FCF Yield. Do you look at the 5Y Avg FCF Yield or the current TTM FCF Yield?
Not sure why you don't pop up more on the TH-cam algorithm. I haven't looked Church & Dwight Co (CHD) yet. Here is what I see. The 5YR P/E Ratio is a bit high and 5 YR Price to Free Cash Flow is slight high but looks pretty good. Thanks!
Did your Twitter get hacked Joseph?
All those videos on TH-cam over the past month with a thumbnail with their head in their hands and flames and big, sensational headlines like "Next Leg Down!" and "Crash is coming, sell now!" look really silly right now. Hopefully people stop clicking on those.
If you sell the gains before the likely pain to come.
Number one number one
"which never came" implies it wont still come. just DCA anyway tho.
Glad I didn't know AMD was cyclical when I bought in 2017 @ $13 per share and it was obvious that AMD with Ryzen was back the ring with Intel and Nvidia.
I don't own a single Apple device but I subscribe to Apple TV.
No joke, these past couple of weeks, I've just been glued to my phone waiting for some big price drops to add to my portfolio. I missed out on adding more AMZN and GOOG. Going back to DCA starting next month though so I can just buy a bit and forget about it for a few years.
Not me. Started buying back in about month ago.
Wow, joseph you have added a lot of companies to the portfolio recently with Pepsico, CN and now Church and Dwight, and you added Dominos and Starbux earlier in 2022.
Trend to more value and dividends!!
Sold out of meta tho…
Vici!!!!!
Been watchin u since episode1… u never fail us with the bevy of information u provide… your ability to break things down and make them simple is impecable .. thank u brother
i was just getting videos suggestions of countless channels talking about how the market is going to crash and blahblha. Today my portfolio is 10%up and i still in the green.
Let’s go joe joe
Is there any concepts or stocks that you guys want me to cover on my channel
Wooot 1st like
CHD is expensive with PE about 28, but I think Joseph's point is that it's worth paying for quality and stability. Analysts are critical of CHD: saying it lacks the scale of it's larger competitors, has inferior pricing/negotiating power, and has no moat. Despite all this, CHD has a nice track record behind it, but looking forward these are challenging times and CHD is not well positioned with rising supply costs and consumers choosing cheaper brands. I see them as a clever growth-by-acquisition company, funded by FCF. I'd say there's more risk and more potential growth than first appears. I'll continue to watch them, but don't have the risk appetite at this price.
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Am I the only one not getting a dividend from VICI not a single cent been buying since 06 02 22
Nvm i got em lol 😆
Long time listeners know that you traded in and out of TXRH 😉
Forgive me if I missed it but it would be nice to give us the current yield of the portfolio when you give the brief summary of it each time. Also some sort of natural income growth measure would be great every now and again. So growth in income that has income derived from inflows stripped out. To me these figures are great motivation and great ways to track progress.