As with everything related to China topics, please be civil in the comments. Check out other videos on China's economy with the playlist: th-cam.com/play/PLKtxx9TnH76T_4R7Lxs8QoDr64zlvt8SS.html
Lol when I saw Jackie Chan in the bottled water ad. There were many companies who hired Jackie Chan as their brand ambassador went bankrupt or suffered big losses. This has became a meme.
hey man, I've been following the channel for a while and just wanted to say that I really like the way your videos have developed, the topics are more interesting (at least to me) and I also like the dry jokes in between!
"Evergrande wasn't just touching the Red Lines. It took them to prom and got them pregnant in the backseat of a Volkswagon Beetle" made me laugh out loud.
You got to admire Evergrande's ambition though. If the tide *didn't* turn it could be a Hengchi, not a Volkswagon. I'm still in complete awe that a debt-fueled apartment builder can enter the electric car industry. China really is something else.
The difference was bezos was actually making money,but he was spending those excess profit he made into growing and expanding his logistics infrastructure and rnd,and he did not had to raise ever growing amounts of debt in order to show a profit,all of it came from growing revenues.i mean building warehouses and distribution centers to handle the growing demand of millions of orders is not easy.But once I think he reached his growth potential in like mid 2010s,he just let loose and let the growing revenues and profits pile up. On the other hand Evergrande was just raising huge amounts of debt every year and unpaid liabilities just to produce a tiny result.
And let's not forget that Bezos has been at it for a long time with Amazon, and it has been a long and steady growth. To me, it just feels like Evergrande was trying to speedrun growth, and while it could have worked under perfect conditions, it's a bit over optimistic to assume that those perfect conditions would last lol. Maybe it was better that Evergrande got problems now, than maybe 5 - 10 more years down the line where the debt might have been even more lol. :P
They had 77 billion in revenue with , -9 billion operating income . 300+ billion in debt , only around 50 billion of equity . Business model is horrible . Company is 53x times larger than in 2010 . Overleveraged , big Ponzi scheme if u ask me.
@@kookidvatohuh4061 kind of crazy how men like him are allowed to carry on doing what he did......things were already showing cracks like 17+ years ago yet he kept diving in deeper and deeper.....and accumulating more and more until it became too big to fail,until failure became the public's problem..... And the world is full of stories like these,Donald trump was one,a guy who had no idea what he was doing except he had ability to sell and kept raising more and more debt.at least back then the size of the debt was only a couple billion.....it didn't accrue to the size where it sent shockwaves through the economy and entire country.. Companues like ltcm and aig and Uber and wework..... though But they let them do whatever they want cause it's private capital? I feel like there should be a government body or board to overwatch and scrutinise all these companies,not to control them or tell them what to do,but at least analyze them and provide a body of intelligence and roughly guage the amount of risk they are carrying and display this information to the public so they know what they are dealing with. But of course capitalists are going to scream bloody murder.....after all who would want anyone to know that ur company is in deep shyt and share this information with everybody or at least imply that something serious is going on.
find and buy the land from government --> make " personal deal" to bank officer to get loan to pay off the land - -> start selling unit right after ground break - -> take some profit then use the rest of money to finish the project ; repeat the process by using bank's money and home buyer's money to expand the business. ........... while all government official , bank officer , local government loaner all have " candy " , everyone is happy, quiet, and helpful.
I suspect that Bezos changed his strategy in response to political pressure, rather than to make investors happier. When I heard about Amazon's reinvestment strategy, I thought of it as an unusually valuable investment.
I just knew I would get some quality analysis by Jon when I saw this video. Everyone one else is quick to make a video which basically says: - Evergrande is huge in China! - Evergrande has many unhappy employees! - Evergrande has many unhappy creditors! -Evergrande is Lehman Brothers! Thanks for the details and context, Mr Asianometry. We'd be lost without you.
find and buy the land from government --> make " personal deal" to bank officer to get loan to pay off the land - -> start selling unit right after ground break - -> keep a parton of profit then use the rest of money to finish the project ; repeat the process by using bank's money and home buyer's money to expand the business. ........... while all government official , bank officer , local government loan agent all have " candy " , everyone is happy, quiet, and helpful.
The little quips and sarcasm are a nice touch, they keep the video conversational and help to sustain attention
3 ปีที่แล้ว +9
I have an economic channel here in Slovakia and now I am preparing video about this topic and I found your video. Really great work. You have my sub :)
A few factual error observed here: 25:13 You might want to point out that only if the company crossed all three red lines that they couldn't take on more liability with interest. For those cross 2 lines, 5% increase in liability with interest each year; for 1 line, 10% increase. 26:20 They discount the real estate units to 78%, not by 78%, or it would be crazy.
these craziest rules came from top central government , and they don't know what is right thing to do to solve the real estate bubble. they don't know so keep trying . it called government planned society, planned economy . . . . . . .
What an extremely interesting, in depth and thorough piece of research. I am enjoying your detailed work and your presentation is also almost gripping. Thank you
I’m subscribing to your Patreon after watching this video!! Excellent analysis on what has led up the company’s current situation! Also, the side comedy gave me a few good laughs as well!
Evergrande's case was initially the case of illiquidity. Not insolvency. In normal scenario, when a company facing an illiquidity issue, they can just rise money from loans or equity. But in evergrande's case, the stock price was already on heavy downturn trend, while the debt was already maxed out. It's like someone just losing their job and already maxed out their credit cards. So in this case, what was once a illiquidity scenario, became an insolvency scenario. Not to mention their founders who cashed out prior to the downfall.. It really shows the bad ethos and will to save the company.
because at the beginning , government ordered no bank can load money to real estate company and property buyer . also ordered new housing price caped , also ordered re-sale price can not go up certain % , also ordered 2+ property owner need to pay higher tax , when market cool off less buyer , less investor , the real estate company cash chain broken. Evergrande have 2 trillion RMB debts, with 1.5 trillion RMB in land , non finish project , un sell housing as asset , all brick and stone but no cash
Evergrande is the hottest financial topic in Chinese. But why am I the only one that is worrying about Evergrande FC, the Chinese super league football cup giant
its affecting markets in USA, so its a topic in USA too. I believe BlackRock and few others might have too much money invested in Evergrande but not 100% sure yet. dominoes already falling over here.
@randomguy8196 it's just one company....it's not like the whole us housing market held by dozens of banks all over the world..... Unless there's more companies out there?
I love that your videos lack typical Western biases and ignorance or apathy towards the finer details of Asian economies and governments. I'm learning a lot! Thanks!
Some of the biases are warranted. China seems rife with fraud. From those little Chinesium screws I get tortured with any time I'm trying to do home refurbs to their shady little equities... I have to do massive research and testing on things that come from there, because their own government won't do it.
Hello, I congratulate you for your channel, I don't miss any video. I just wanted to make a comment, maybe you have already been told, it would be great if you could turn up the volume on the videos, they are a bit low. Greetings from Chile!!
People/channels likes yours brings otherwise irrelevant information to the forefront of the average person's inquisitive nature when questions arise about issues in relation to impacts on a possible global scale. Great work!
The three auto headquarters in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are to represent the economic centres in Northern, Central, and Southern China respectively (top 2 cities in each). It's the 3rd largest country in the world with an area larger than the EU so having distribution spread out is quite normal for manufacturing companies.
I just wanted to say there's so much about your channel that tickles my brain. But what made me click the subscribe button is the fact that I feel you made admirable attempt at getting the pronunciation correct (or as best as you can, and for the most part you're spot on or very close). You pronounced "Xu" a bit more like "Shu" or "Shoo", but it should be almost exactly in the middle of "Shu" and "shii"(or "she"). Yours is a little closer to Shu, but still arguably closer than the average person would've gotten.
Another amazing video, especially with the indepth look into Evergrande origins and its present situation given how much attention the company has been getting internationally. Also, congrats on reaching over 80k subs! With the quality content on this channel, I can confidently say you deserve much more. As a long time watcher, it's amazing to see this channel grow with leaps and bounds. Can't wait for the 100k milestone and many milestones afterwards!
Couldn't be more timely, on the very day that all this made the markets shudder and my own nest egg shrink appreciably. Great work! Helped to take the edge off.
Excellent research and contents as usual. What I love the most is your ways of story telling techniques. I feel like we are hanging out, drinking coffee while you are giving me good details to bring me up to speed on a matter and not losing me in the process. Keep up the great work!
did not expect this to be so interesting. the missteps reminds me of our family business back then, taking for granted the success made from real estate while continuing to rapidly expand it without improving efficiencies because too busy on making friends (and/or bribing) and expanding/lusting in other opportunities. they fix problems by borrowing more money without really fixing deep root problems.
Well researched & interesting topic. Many houses and apartments globally are over-leveraged (meaning too expensive). The value of property against (average) wage earning capacity is now over 2.5 times more than my parents had in the 1960s and 1970s. Meaning that overall (average, not high end) property prices is now over 2.5 times more expensive than its repayment capacity, than it was 40 years ago. We call this "progress". Yes, for the banks and real-estate agents until the property bubble bursts.
First, about 90% of Chinese own their home and only 20% of the 90% carry a mortgage. If a mortgage, down payments are like 50% down, 10 to 15 years to pay. Unlike the US where 20% down is the standard and during the 2008 bust, zero down. Why can they afford this? When Deng moved China towards capitalism, it privatized many businesses or let them go bust and the employee housing that was owned by these companies were given or sold cheaply to the occupying employees (In Mao's socialist state, the state owned everything, the company, the housing, and the land). That instant asset wealth was the basis of their new found capitalist wealth. As house prices rose, many traded up, or from their savings of not paying a mortgage, bought a new house. Further, today a developer is finding it harder to find vacant land (farm land) so with the approval of local government, it embarks on urban renewal. For example, 20 year old 6 story walk-up condos are torn down to make way for 30 story ones with elevators. (today it is 60 story ones), From that, one can see that the developer can give an equivalent house in the new structure or elsewhere in its library of existing developments and still make a sizable profit. As new developments rise, the value of housing increases, especially driven by families moving from rural areas to cities to gain higher wages and employment. It is common for families to pool funds to buy a house if no sales of previous houses are made. Rural housing is almost worthless and lands are leased to other farmers for some income. For urban families, it was common to use the family house sales to pay the down payment for a new house owned by the kids. Today, things are changing in China. China is becoming more like the US where the closeness of families is in decline. The trading up and pooling of funds is becoming less and less the mechanism for owning a house. However, in today's world, it is not uncommon for Chinese to own more than one house. These lie empty or rented out. Rent in China is relatively cheap compared to the US.
Housing and shelter is a basic human right, it should be affordable so that more people can live under a roof, but they need to make sure the cheap properties don't just immediately get bought out by other conglomerates.
The real issue is that real estate market has been out-growing the equity and commodities market in China. Hence, real estate is used as an investment driver and an asset to preserve wealth. There's no point holding the yuan either given the inflation.
Aren’t rent prices just supply and demand. If everyone wants to live in the same spot prices go up. Only way to combat is build more. Having empty living space isn’t attractive for the owner. When it comes to buying property that’s different, because it’s an investment. And thus depends on the overall market with many factors.
Thank you for the JP Morgan Chase example to show how 'liabilities' can be a complicated thing. Like for a bank a deposit is a liability but also the basis for them actually being able to do anything to make any money. So without that 'liability' they would be literally nothing and would not exist.
another super informative video. The Evergrande situation reminds me of the saying, "if you owe the bank a little money and can't pay up, you are in trouble. But if you owe the bank a lot of money and you can't pay up, then the bank is in trouble."
It’s not that Evergrande is the worst of it there are at least two other in similar or worse condition, but with wrong connections. With millions of jobs at stake and intertwined globally this is no small issue.
@carl hartford my guy your number went from 3 to 15 to trillion Over just speculating the numbers of loans and even imaginary debt numbers What did you wanted to say
It's not a good sign if your valuation is less than your tangible assets. It bring to mind a company that works with pen, paper, and spreadsheets instead of internally owned project management software.
find and buy the land from government --> make " personal deal" to bank officer to get loan to pay off the land - -> start selling unit right after ground break - -> keep a profit then use the rest of money to finish the project ; repeat the process again by using bank's money and home buyer's money to expand the business. ........... while all government official , bank officer , local government loan agent all have " candy " , everyone is happy, quiet, and helpful ; then recently , government ordered no bank can load out money to RE company and 2nd hand house buyer . also ordered new housing price caped , also ordered re-sale housing price can not go up to certain % , also ordered 2+ property owner need to pay higher tax , RE market immediately cool off , less buyer , less investor , the real estate company cash chain broken.
Tesla also did the bump of small profits just to show they can do it, then returned to plowing every dollar they could find into growth. And after said growth they achieved sustained profits. Operating on limitless credit is very dangerous. I hope these rules about the red lines prevent any more events like this one. They should have been there from the beginning.
A lot of regulations only happened after a terrible crisis. Evergrande is going to be one of those stories you will learn in textbooks about why things are done in a certain way in China.
Well, regardless what you make of Evergrande today, it is still an inspiration to hear the story of a man literally from rags to riches, without family wealth, political connections.
I am worried about the downstream effects of Beijing's "Three Red Lines" mandate. It would be foolish to think that the Evergrande Group is the only developer in this situation. If the assets on the developers balance sheets tumble with a housing crisis, its damage could spread far beyond the Chinese private and state owned financial institutions.
@@larssomething1410 There has been a lot of chinese real state companies stock falling down today, quite probably same business model as Evergrande, debt.
Fundamentally, no one is living in Evergrand's millions of apartment units, aka Ghost Towns; so, there is no real demand for these apartments other than speculation. Until these apartments become occupied by owners or renters Evergrand has no viable business model to go forward.
Let me echo Terry Wilkinson & Gailfreak below. This is one of the best-ever company reviews in my experience. Both your deep research and your "just the facts" straight delivery (not hyper-breathless 😁) add to the impact.
liabilities are hard dollars, assets like land are hard to value and are easily carried at inflated prices on financial statements. Evergrande is toast. Its over, the only real question is who is assigned the losses and how much.
Selling toxic real estate and then selling clean water is a genuis business move. I'm honestly impressed with the capitalistic exploitation there, but at least they're making the best of a bad situation. Like everything in China, they may favor short-term gains over sustainability, but people's quality of life is improving quickly.
With such a distance (with its debt ratios) to new policies, there is no way to restructure it. The company can only collapse. One more thing. People are wondering is Evergrande going to make their payments tmr. It's roughly 100 mln on a 500bn balance sheet. 2% only. If Evergrande is advertising for some time now there isn't even so little money to spare, how can this improve, when all the trust has been lost. It's a panic run on this company. Nobody is going to touch it with any financing. If they were to be liquidated at 70% of assets value, they will meet their liabilities. Which is not terrible.
As with everything related to China topics, please be civil in the comments. Check out other videos on China's economy with the playlist: th-cam.com/play/PLKtxx9TnH76T_4R7Lxs8QoDr64zlvt8SS.html
14:21 Here's a direct link to the Asianometry history video on Heaven Lake: th-cam.com/video/d4_glr9BofI/w-d-xo.html
Nipples
they touched my lens through the market
No!
What's gonna happen to Hengchi now?
Lol when I saw Jackie Chan in the bottled water ad. There were many companies who hired Jackie Chan as their brand ambassador went bankrupt or suffered big losses. This has became a meme.
ya how bawang, the hair grow brand. shopee recently hired him as brand agent. hmmm
dont say that dude shopee hired him a month befor as a brand agent. i dont want my sister business affected by this lmao
@@reoru4425
*watches Shopee ad with Jackie Chan on tv*
LOL
It's not him it's companies desperate to overpay a big star so they appear legitimate
They just wanna leeche of his legitimacy nothing to do with jackie really
He just gets poached due to popularity
hey man, I've been following the channel for a while and just wanted to say that I really like the way your videos have developed, the topics are more interesting (at least to me) and I also like the dry jokes in between!
He teaches in the form of telling a story ... like a book you can’t stop reading. Very organized, relevant and educational.
Yeah the dry humor is great. And his storytelling skills are excellent.
"Evergrande wasn't just touching the Red Lines. It took them to prom and got them pregnant in the backseat of a Volkswagon Beetle" made me laugh out loud.
You got to admire Evergrande's ambition though. If the tide *didn't* turn it could be a Hengchi, not a Volkswagon.
I'm still in complete awe that a debt-fueled apartment builder can enter the electric car industry. China really is something else.
@@shazmosushi so true. For most of evergrand’s life they were ambitious and risky but then they got carried away way worse than the 2008 crisis
@@Greg-yu4ij Go big and go home. :D
I have a very serious question...
WHY IN A BEETLE?
wkwkwkwkwkwkwk
The difference was bezos was actually making money,but he was spending those excess profit he made into growing and expanding his logistics infrastructure and rnd,and he did not had to raise ever growing amounts of debt in order to show a profit,all of it came from growing revenues.i mean building warehouses and distribution centers to handle the growing demand of millions of orders is not easy.But once I think he reached his growth potential in like mid 2010s,he just let loose and let the growing revenues and profits pile up.
On the other hand Evergrande was just raising huge amounts of debt every year and unpaid liabilities just to produce a tiny result.
And let's not forget that Bezos has been at it for a long time with Amazon, and it has been a long and steady growth.
To me, it just feels like Evergrande was trying to speedrun growth, and while it could have worked under perfect conditions, it's a bit over optimistic to assume that those perfect conditions would last lol.
Maybe it was better that Evergrande got problems now, than maybe 5 - 10 more years down the line where the debt might have been even more lol. :P
They had 77 billion in revenue with , -9 billion operating income . 300+ billion in debt , only around 50 billion of equity . Business model is horrible . Company is 53x times larger than in 2010 . Overleveraged , big Ponzi scheme if u ask me.
@@kookidvatohuh4061 kind of crazy how men like him are allowed to carry on doing what he did......things were already showing cracks like 17+ years ago yet he kept diving in deeper and deeper.....and accumulating more and more until it became too big to fail,until failure became the public's problem.....
And the world is full of stories like these,Donald trump was one,a guy who had no idea what he was doing except he had ability to sell and kept raising more and more debt.at least back then the size of the debt was only a couple billion.....it didn't accrue to the size where it sent shockwaves through the economy and entire country..
Companues like ltcm and aig and Uber and wework..... though
But they let them do whatever they want cause it's private capital?
I feel like there should be a government body or board to overwatch and scrutinise all these companies,not to control them or tell them what to do,but at least analyze them and provide a body of intelligence and roughly guage the amount of risk they are carrying and display this information to the public so they know what they are dealing with.
But of course capitalists are going to scream bloody murder.....after all who would want anyone to know that ur company is in deep shyt and share this information with everybody or at least imply that something serious is going on.
find and buy the land from government --> make " personal deal" to bank officer to get loan to pay off the land - -> start selling unit right after ground break - -> take some profit then use the rest of money to finish the project ; repeat the process by using bank's money and home buyer's money to expand the business. ...........
while all government official , bank officer , local government loaner all have " candy " , everyone is happy, quiet, and helpful.
I suspect that Bezos changed his strategy in response to political pressure, rather than to make investors happier. When I heard about Amazon's reinvestment strategy, I thought of it as an unusually valuable investment.
I just knew I would get some quality analysis by Jon when I saw this video. Everyone one else is quick to make a video which basically says:
- Evergrande is huge in China!
- Evergrande has many unhappy employees!
- Evergrande has many unhappy creditors!
-Evergrande is Lehman Brothers!
Thanks for the details and context, Mr Asianometry. We'd be lost without you.
find and buy the land from government --> make " personal deal" to bank officer to get loan to pay off the land - -> start selling unit right after ground break - -> keep a parton of profit then use the rest of money to finish the project ;
repeat the process by using bank's money and home buyer's money to expand the business. ...........
while all government official , bank officer , local government loan agent all have " candy " , everyone is happy, quiet, and helpful.
A well-researched video on the company Evergrande and the entrepreneurial ups and downs of their founder, Xu. Keep up the good work
Agreed, very well done 👍.
The little quips and sarcasm are a nice touch, they keep the video conversational and help to sustain attention
I have an economic channel here in Slovakia and now I am preparing video about this topic and I found your video. Really great work. You have my sub :)
A few factual error observed here:
25:13 You might want to point out that only if the company crossed all three red lines that they couldn't take on more liability with interest. For those cross 2 lines, 5% increase in liability with interest each year; for 1 line, 10% increase.
26:20 They discount the real estate units to 78%, not by 78%, or it would be crazy.
Ok that makes more sense. 78% I was thinking ok so the usd won.
With regards to 26:20, this seems reasonable. I can edit that. Thanks.
@@Asianometry I was like, wtf Evergrande trying to cause a property crash in China? No wonder CPC is pissed.
these craziest rules came from top central government , and they don't know what is right thing to do to solve the real estate bubble. they don't know so keep trying . it called government planned society, planned economy . . . . . . .
What an extremely interesting, in depth and thorough piece of research. I am enjoying your detailed work and your presentation is also almost gripping. Thank you
I’m subscribing to your Patreon after watching this video!! Excellent analysis on what has led up the company’s current situation! Also, the side comedy gave me a few good laughs as well!
Evergrande's case was initially the case of illiquidity. Not insolvency. In normal scenario, when a company facing an illiquidity issue, they can just rise money from loans or equity. But in evergrande's case, the stock price was already on heavy downturn trend, while the debt was already maxed out. It's like someone just losing their job and already maxed out their credit cards.
So in this case, what was once a illiquidity scenario, became an insolvency scenario. Not to mention their founders who cashed out prior to the downfall.. It really shows the bad ethos and will to save the company.
Even Swedish Evergrande Auto Industry is in trouble? $305,000,000,000 + USD.
because at the beginning , government ordered no bank can load money to real estate company and property buyer . also ordered new housing price caped , also ordered re-sale price can not go up certain % , also ordered 2+ property owner need to pay higher tax ,
when market cool off less buyer , less investor , the real estate company cash chain broken.
Evergrande have 2 trillion RMB debts, with 1.5 trillion RMB in land , non finish project , un sell housing as asset , all brick and stone but no cash
Come for the interesting in depth topics, stay for the deadpan humor.
Great video! The “three highs one low” actually refers to high leverage, high gross margins and high turnover, low prices
Evergrande is the hottest financial topic in Chinese.
But why am I the only one that is worrying about Evergrande FC, the Chinese super league football cup giant
Lmao dude...The world is shitting itself for another 2008 and then there's you....haah
its affecting markets in USA, so its a topic in USA too. I believe BlackRock and few others might have too much money invested in Evergrande but not 100% sure yet.
dominoes already falling over here.
Corrupt as usual 😬😬
@randomguy8196 it's just one company....it's not like the whole us housing market held by dozens of banks all over the world.....
Unless there's more companies out there?
@@pokbot few hundred mil is alot?
Glad to see this video take off! You deserve it man 😀
I love that your videos lack typical Western biases and ignorance or apathy towards the finer details of Asian economies and governments. I'm learning a lot! Thanks!
Some of the biases are warranted. China seems rife with fraud. From those little Chinesium screws I get tortured with any time I'm trying to do home refurbs to their shady little equities... I have to do massive research and testing on things that come from there, because their own government won't do it.
Keep drinking red Kool-Aid. The fruit punch I guess it would be. I fell asleep during this. But after reading your remark I'll just block the channel
@@CAROLDDISCOVER-2025
Kinda sad of you
True
I love it. Totally support your channel and sharing it to my friends
Hello, I congratulate you for your channel, I don't miss any video. I just wanted to make a comment, maybe you have already been told, it would be great if you could turn up the volume on the videos, they are a bit low. Greetings from Chile!!
Wow this was amazingly put together. Thx.
People/channels likes yours brings otherwise irrelevant information to the forefront of the average person's inquisitive nature when questions arise about issues in relation to impacts on a possible global scale. Great work!
The three auto headquarters in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are to represent the economic centres in Northern, Central, and Southern China respectively (top 2 cities in each). It's the 3rd largest country in the world with an area larger than the EU so having distribution spread out is quite normal for manufacturing companies.
I just wanted to say there's so much about your channel that tickles my brain. But what made me click the subscribe button is the fact that I feel you made admirable attempt at getting the pronunciation correct (or as best as you can, and for the most part you're spot on or very close).
You pronounced "Xu" a bit more like "Shu" or "Shoo", but it should be almost exactly in the middle of "Shu" and "shii"(or "she"). Yours is a little closer to Shu, but still arguably closer than the average person would've gotten.
this story is fascinating! please make a follow up video in a few months if possible.
Another amazing video, especially with the indepth look into Evergrande origins and its present situation given how much attention the company has been getting internationally.
Also, congrats on reaching over 80k subs! With the quality content on this channel, I can confidently say you deserve much more. As a long time watcher, it's amazing to see this channel grow with leaps and bounds. Can't wait for the 100k milestone and many milestones afterwards!
Its so nice to hear and see an impartial voice that covers the facts and doesnt foam at the mouth when it comes to China existing
I know right, the reactions by Western Media are truely eye-rolling.
Great in depth reporting of the history of this company, that I've seen no one else has been able to shed light on!!
This is quality journalism. Too many "internet geniuses" can't even pronounce "Guizhou."
He lives in Taiwan afaik, that must count for something.
Agree, top notch content though.
Thanks!
I have just found your channel. Really like your content! 👍
I discovered today your channel wow keep going greetings from Belgium
Couldn't be more timely, on the very day that all this made the markets shudder and my own nest egg shrink appreciably. Great work! Helped to take the edge off.
Excellent research and contents as usual. What I love the most is your ways of story telling techniques. I feel like we are hanging out, drinking coffee while you are giving me good details to bring me up to speed on a matter and not losing me in the process. Keep up the great work!
Excellent research and detail by Aisanometry on the Evergrande Group saga.Very much appreciate and thankful for the informative video.
Finally, a non-clickbait video on evergrande. Bravo.
First time here and subscribed. Great video man 👍👍👍❗
Thank you! This video was clear and concise and provided good background information.
did not expect this to be so interesting. the missteps reminds me of our family business back then, taking for granted the success made from real estate while continuing to rapidly expand it without improving efficiencies because too busy on making friends (and/or bribing) and expanding/lusting in other opportunities. they fix problems by borrowing more money without really fixing deep root problems.
What was your Family Business if I may ask?
@@hugof3243 buying and selling houses
@@zodiacfml Lehman Brother's?
Haha 😂The prom line! How are you so good at throwing at least one great punchline in per video!?
More of this humor! Smart and snarky, and your metaphors are ripe af...
I love your videos, but with so many numbers, could you put them on the screen as well? It is really hard to follow them if you only speak them out.
Turn on subtitles.
The subtitles are excellent.
Yeah I'd also consider saying a value in one currency and putting the equivalent (e.g. in USD) on screen
Or just tell us how many Yuan it is and let everyone else convert.
Good comment.
Your content is gold! Your side comments are spot on. Great work. Keep it up
Well researched & interesting topic. Many houses and apartments globally are over-leveraged (meaning too expensive). The value of property against (average) wage earning capacity is now over 2.5 times more than my parents had in the 1960s and 1970s. Meaning that overall (average, not high end) property prices is now over 2.5 times more expensive than its repayment capacity, than it was 40 years ago. We call this "progress". Yes, for the banks and real-estate agents until the property bubble bursts.
But how will it burst
People need housing
And land is getting scarcer
First, about 90% of Chinese own their home and only 20% of the 90% carry a mortgage. If a mortgage, down payments are like 50% down, 10 to 15 years to pay. Unlike the US where 20% down is the standard and during the 2008 bust, zero down. Why can they afford this? When Deng moved China towards capitalism, it privatized many businesses or let them go bust and the employee housing that was owned by these companies were given or sold cheaply to the occupying employees (In Mao's socialist state, the state owned everything, the company, the housing, and the land). That instant asset wealth was the basis of their new found capitalist wealth. As house prices rose, many traded up, or from their savings of not paying a mortgage, bought a new house. Further, today a developer is finding it harder to find vacant land (farm land) so with the approval of local government, it embarks on urban renewal. For example, 20 year old 6 story walk-up condos are torn down to make way for 30 story ones with elevators. (today it is 60 story ones), From that, one can see that the developer can give an equivalent house in the new structure or elsewhere in its library of existing developments and still make a sizable profit. As new developments rise, the value of housing increases, especially driven by families moving from rural areas to cities to gain higher wages and employment. It is common for families to pool funds to buy a house if no sales of previous houses are made. Rural housing is almost worthless and lands are leased to other farmers for some income. For urban families, it was common to use the family house sales to pay the down payment for a new house owned by the kids. Today, things are changing in China. China is becoming more like the US where the closeness of families is in decline. The trading up and pooling of funds is becoming less and less the mechanism for owning a house. However, in today's world, it is not uncommon for Chinese to own more than one house. These lie empty or rented out. Rent in China is relatively cheap compared to the US.
Sweet video loved the way you presented it with the pictures and presentation .
25:47 that metaphor was perfection 😘.
Housing and shelter is a basic human right, it should be affordable so that more people can live under a roof, but they need to make sure the cheap properties don't just immediately get bought out by other conglomerates.
Anybody can go to the forest to build a hut or earthen home. Does everyone have the right to live in downtown of a major city?
The real issue is that real estate market has been out-growing the equity and commodities market in China. Hence, real estate is used as an investment driver and an asset to preserve wealth. There's no point holding the yuan either given the inflation.
@@_Wai_Wai_ if you dont own the land your hut is built on you will soon have troubles
Aren’t rent prices just supply and demand. If everyone wants to live in the same spot prices go up. Only way to combat is build more. Having empty living space isn’t attractive for the owner.
When it comes to buying property that’s different, because it’s an investment. And thus depends on the overall market with many factors.
@@_Wai_Wai_ Don't overestimate the ability of the average person.
You got my immediate subscription. Great unbiased content.
Thank you for the JP Morgan Chase example to show how 'liabilities' can be a complicated thing. Like for a bank a deposit is a liability but also the basis for them actually being able to do anything to make any money. So without that 'liability' they would be literally nothing and would not exist.
Man this video is so underrated. I think I've watched/listened to this video at least 10 times now.
These are some of the best and most informative videos on TH-cam or anywhere.
Always glad when someone throws shade on the Dunning-Kruger set.
Kinda neat how they show their stock performance directly on the sides of their building like that. Cool lights
The "wasn't just touching the redline, Evergrande had..." quip was *very* good.
another super informative video. The Evergrande situation reminds me of the saying, "if you owe the bank a little money and can't pay up, you are in trouble. But if you owe the bank a lot of money and you can't pay up, then the bank is in trouble."
same what happened to china hold us debt bond, and china is stuck in the trap.
LMAO
@Asianometry would be great to see a follow up on this group and where they are now.
Did any of these 200 banks ever thought about saying no after even roughly scanning Evergrande's record?
Reminds me a lot of Leshi company under Jia Yueting. How many more of these companies are operating without scrutiny and ready to fall?
Please keep posting cases like this. Great 👍🏿! Thank you!
It’s not that Evergrande is the worst of it there are at least two other in similar or worse condition, but with wrong connections. With millions of jobs at stake and intertwined globally this is no small issue.
@carl hartford my guy your number went from 3 to 15 to trillion
Over just speculating the numbers of loans and even imaginary debt numbers
What did you wanted to say
It's not a good sign if your valuation is less than your tangible assets. It bring to mind a company that works with pen, paper, and spreadsheets instead of internally owned project management software.
Keep up the good work!
It's hard to understand how it all went so wrong. Who knew that plowing all your profits into leverage to acquire more debt could backfire?
find and buy the land from government --> make " personal deal" to bank officer to get loan to pay off the land - -> start selling unit right after ground break - -> keep a profit then use the rest of money to finish the project ;
repeat the process again by using bank's money and home buyer's money to expand the business. ...........
while all government official , bank officer , local government loan agent all have " candy " , everyone is happy, quiet, and helpful ;
then recently , government ordered no bank can load out money to RE company and 2nd hand house buyer . also ordered new housing price caped , also ordered re-sale housing price can not go up to certain % , also ordered 2+ property owner need to pay higher tax ,
RE market immediately cool off , less buyer , less investor , the real estate company cash chain broken.
Awesome video, clear, interesting and informative. Thank you!
is blowing up as we speak.. well, you are speaking. Good channel man! subscribed
Evergrande was ordered to demolish 39 buildings in January of this year (2022).
DRAAMMM finally from someone trustworthy and level headed about China
Great work and information
excellent presentation... thank you for your high quality informative work...
Tesla also did the bump of small profits just to show they can do it, then returned to plowing every dollar they could find into growth. And after said growth they achieved sustained profits.
Operating on limitless credit is very dangerous. I hope these rules about the red lines prevent any more events like this one. They should have been there from the beginning.
A lot of regulations only happened after a terrible crisis. Evergrande is going to be one of those stories you will learn in textbooks about why things are done in a certain way in China.
I’ve been looking for this video. Great info
Hi, I enjoyed this episode very much. Could you make one on Danke too?
very interesting, how about a july 2022 update? I do not have the necessary skillset.
29:24 Wait, they were running an MLM on top of everything else?!
Well, regardless what you make of Evergrande today, it is still an inspiration to hear the story of a man literally from rags to riches, without family wealth, political connections.
Rags to riches to rags! He borrowed and spent more than he earned. He even bought his connections. But I believe he will ultimately land on his feet.
@@apga1998 Well at least he can say "been there, done that" to his grand children.
100 % political connection , plus 100% bank officer connection, i mean corruption , kickback.....
@@richwu6752 @ he should better tell his live in America children and grand children know that fast before he get suicide or died of illness
Good content! Here is a subscribe for your channel
Hey buddy, big fan of your work. Can you do a video on Hitachi please?
You're pretty calm about the situation, and downplayed the off balance sheet liabilities. You don't think this could be a full blown crisis?
I am worried about the downstream effects of Beijing's "Three Red Lines" mandate. It would be foolish to think that the Evergrande Group is the only developer in this situation. If the assets on the developers balance sheets tumble with a housing crisis, its damage could spread far beyond the Chinese private and state owned financial institutions.
@@larssomething1410 There has been a lot of chinese real state companies stock falling down today, quite probably same business model as Evergrande, debt.
Awesome video. You have my subscription!
Could anyone share that leaked letter? Thanks.
It’s nice to see the Chinese-Mexican effect take place upon ruling class. I like how he drew in his eyebrows with a Sharpie . 1:19
Can you do one on Vingroup? I'll be glad to help translate anything Vietnamese to English
2:10 _”I have no people, I have gifted gifted people I am specical specical people I refined”_
w h a t
great work!!!!!
excellent content
Fundamentally, no one is living in Evergrand's millions of apartment units, aka Ghost Towns; so, there is no real demand for these apartments other than speculation. Until these apartments become occupied by owners or renters Evergrand has no viable business model to go forward.
Thats really stupid
And a good example of why such construction should be regulated
Could had tried licencing an aerial photo of Zhoukou from alamy.
Love the little quips and jokes throughout the video.
Some feedback. Can you say RMB to RMB and then USD to USD figures? It's easier to follow rather than mixing them up
Let me echo Terry Wilkinson & Gailfreak below. This is one of the best-ever company reviews in my experience. Both your deep research and your "just the facts" straight delivery (not hyper-breathless 😁) add to the impact.
Can someone explain to me why he is mostly referred to by his dialect name Hui Ka Yan while he mostly lives and does business in mainland china?
liabilities are hard dollars, assets like land are hard to value and are easily carried at inflated prices on financial statements. Evergrande is toast. Its over, the only real question is who is assigned the losses and how much.
More women in the street, and shouting about being robbed of their life savings should bring this to a head
💎💎💎 Awesome video John.
I really wish you would raise the volume
Any follow up to this story? CEO seems to have disappeared 🤔
$300 Billion...
I watched your TSMC videos and the $20 Billion price tag for a cutting edge fab sounded insane but this...Jesus.
Selling toxic real estate and then selling clean water is a genuis business move. I'm honestly impressed with the capitalistic exploitation there, but at least they're making the best of a bad situation. Like everything in China, they may favor short-term gains over sustainability, but people's quality of life is improving quickly.
Any updates on this situation since the video release?
With such a distance (with its debt ratios) to new policies, there is no way to restructure it. The company can only collapse.
One more thing. People are wondering is Evergrande going to make their payments tmr. It's roughly 100 mln on a 500bn balance sheet. 2% only. If Evergrande is advertising for some time now there isn't even so little money to spare, how can this improve, when all the trust has been lost. It's a panic run on this company. Nobody is going to touch it with any financing.
If they were to be liquidated at 70% of assets value, they will meet their liabilities. Which is not terrible.
Really good reporting
Reminds me of vault tech, can you do a video on how many unfinished high raises are at risk of being demo 🤔 foundations water damaged
A year later, and it seems as if nothing happened. Is nothing good material for a follow up video?