How to Find Stocks on Sale: Part 2 | Phil Town
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ก.ย. 2024
- In How to Find Stocks on Sale: Part 2, we'll dive into the differences between price and value, and how an event could create a smart investment opportunity. In a Rule #1 event, the price of the company goes down, which is exactly what all Rulers use to become rich. bit.ly/31fo2wp
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investing for beginners, investing in stocks, warren buffett, how to invest money, stock market,
What events have you experienced in your investing journey that put a company you love on sale? Share with the group below!
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Great stuff, Phil. Loving your book and vids. Can you do a vid on how to use a stock screener according to Rule #1 investing as a starting point and then what deeper analysis is needed afterwards?
Increase in tax rates in a country will become an event?
Even if it's often mostly the same information under different angles, I can't get enough of Phil's talking, it's so inspiring, and really motivate me to plunge into the world of investing.
I completely agree!
So how much $$ have you made? Talk is nothing without action.
@@Re3iRtH I'm not investing till I'll be sure I know exactly what I'm doing. I'm learning right now. Currently I have a business with a return no value investing can ever bring. But it's not very scalable that is why I'm learning value investing so I can work with larger amounts.
@@XOPOIIIO I was born in Russia and we escaped almost 30 years ago. Are you Russian? I haven't been back but planning a trip this summer. Any tips?
Awesome on the business 👍 I'm not the entrepreneur type at all. I prefer to give an expert money to invest it in real estate for me.
@@Re3iRtH Yes, I'm Russian. In terms of tourism Russia is very diverse country, you can find almost anything. But I wouldn't travel Russia just for mountains or beaches, it's not cheap and not the best. It's only reasonable to go there for unique experience , there's a lot of cultural and natural sites that you can't find anywhere else.
*A stock is on sale when other factors cause it to drop - corona virus* 🤔
Exactly !!
Yes. The question now is for how long?
It is not the corona virus which is beating stocks down at the moment. The virus is just an excuse for the market to come back down to normal valuations and we are far from that. There is plenty of downside risk in my opinion
YES, BUt NOT NOW , as a crash is due, so you dont buy long on anything 9/10ths into a cycle unless you are one of those from the GFC that said everything was ok and theres always a good time to buy EEK!!
Yes, some nice stocks prices like CCL are tempting me to buy them.
i would be happier if i watch this in Feb. thanks Phil
You deserve so many more views!
Your videos have been so helpful to me and I am so grateful. Thank you.
Great explanation and excellent thread…. Explains more than the general information in the book…. The book is the sizzle….the videos explain how it’s done! I’m looking forward to signing up for your seminar…thank you…
Hey Phil and thank you for this amazing video!
I would appreciate it so much if you did a financial video for people the same as age as me, I'm 16 and it would be interesting to know how I could make my future financially secure. Thank you so much for every video!
your awesome at explaining this stuff
Thank you sooooo much for sharing your wisdom your knowledge god put people in your pad for a reason I look for a honest person to learn from who is not trying to take the little money you have to teach you I found my mentor in you looking forward for all the great learning I will get from you in my quest to success as a single mother in the great business of investing
Last year around this time the government (Romania) introduced a bone-headed tax on banks and energy companies. Stocks dropped 25-40%. It was obvious that it wouldn't last more than 2 years and then another 2 to undo the damage (ended up lasting about 1 year with much less severe effects). That's a rule 1 event if you ask me. The companies' business (=value) was sound, it was just an external disturbance that caused the price to drop.
Which companies are you talking about?
@@norbibajgyik4460 Banca Transilvania, BRD, Romgaz, OMV Petrom and others
@@bogdangaliceanu6326 these companies are publicly traded ???
Thank you very much, Mr Town!
AMEN!!!!!!!!
you are a great guy. really generous.. I really appreceiate this wealth of information and mindset needed to invest properly.
Howdy from AUS! This is awesome! You have been teaching me so much! Thank you!
Corono is having a big impact on airline stocks.
Anyone looking at DAL or UAL?
The next week or so may be a good time to get in.
I think UAL is ending Fase 3 (Distribution) to Fase 4 (Decline).
Chinese casinos and vacation resorts had to shut down droped like 8% first day
I work for UAL. We are now in a great financial position for long term, we will survive and thrive...scary times but 13 billion strong and adding $
Stay away from the airlines. I wish them no Ill will, but there are simply better places to invest.
These two videos, counseling discipline on entry into a stock position, and discipline not to exit a sound position through a downturn, are lessons it took me a very long time to learn. It is tempting to join the crowd on the way up and down, but I've too often bought high and sold low in panics about missing out.
I would also add that "Locking in your gains" by selling ou t of my best performing stocks, holding onto dogs as they continued to drop in price AND value that I was failing to recognize, has cost me even more. Hope is not an investment strategy, and until I understood better how to value a company, I was haphazardly making money and promptly losing it.
I'll give you an example of a RULE1 event, an event that was not linked to a company's value that dramatically affected the price: the Cybertruck's broken window unveil. I had bought Tesla shares in May 2019, and by the fall the market had begun to wake up to the success lying ahead for Tesla's business. But at the Cybertruck unveil, Holzhausen shattered investor confidence along with that window, and the next day, November 22, 2019, Tesla dropped 6.4%. I kept all my shares and I purchased January 2022 expiry options at a strike price of $400 for just $60. The market caught up and the options are now worth ten times that. I'll be saving my money for January 2022 when I can purchase every one of those shares I committed to at the bargain price of $400.
I prefer options with long time horizons to reduce the risk posed by market volatility.
Hi Phil, I love your videos, very informative. You simplify things that most people think it's so complicated. I hope to be at your workshop and meet you. I was wondering what are your thought on China? My gut feeling is that it's an 'event' and will bounce back. If yes, how do we take advantage of it?
At 6:21 I would have phrased that as: "Is this event something this company or a similar company has recovered from in the past". One example would be Chipotle. People got sick some time ago from eating at Chipotle. A similar event happened to "Jack in the Box" in 1993 and that company recovered.
Phil I have a question: how do we know if we are in a recession or just slowdown because of coronavirus or short term event? How a recession beginning is declared and by whom? I am swing trading on coronavirus new and I am afraid I will be buying during the beginning of a recession!
Excellent. Very simply & clearly explained. Subscribed for sure.
Thanks for the insightful advice. Trying to get my son involved in planning his future, and your advice carries a lot more weight than the ramblings of his old man.
Considering prices go any which way and once it starts a serious drop, there's no indicator of when it will shoot up, why would I follow this advice?
Atossa therapeutics, ATOS is a great stock that's on sale.
i love sony. thanks
Hey Phil what do you think are great moats? Like Brands? Customer satisfaction? Quality of products? All the above? Just curious about what you look for in an investment.
Thanks Phil for the great advice! I had a similar situation with Bob Evans stock when the swine flu hit In 2009. Unfortunately I sold the stock rather than buy more of it at the time. Still made money as I bought at the right price but out of fear sold all my shares.
The Brexit was a great opportunity. Doubled in 10 months.
Compare it in 4 years time :)
Thank you for your advice.
I'd love to see some videos on "gotchas", where even experienced people *thought* low prices were *obviously* due to a temporary problem but indeed was terminal (Horsehead?). What exactly went wrong in the should-I-buy analysis? What has been learned? Thanx!
thnks for great information
Great Stuff Phil. Keep em coming 😎
love this guy
Thanks Phil.
Small Investors > Financial Managers. One group has to sell to keep their jobs. The other group buys what was sold for a fraction of its value. I wonder what will happen when more people abandon Financial Managers and decide to invest for themselves? Will there still be big profits to make off of fear of losing ones job? Buy when there's fear as Warren says. Can't deny that investing is a bit mercenary in its philosophy.
BP with the oil spill in the gulf! Not sure how long ago that was…maybe more than 10years
Yes the event was March great lockdown by covid19
Thank you 🖤🥀🥀
Should I invest in dividend paying stocks, I'm 16 and I don't have much capital.
You should have some dividend stocks, even if it's not the biggest part of your portfolio. Trust me having some money coming in quarterly (or even anually) regardless of the share price is super motivating.
Perfect time to start with 16 👍 But better than investing is to educate yourself properly and establish a strategy
I say just invest in a good business dividend or not. If it’s a good business and it’s undervalue then invest in it. If it pays a dividend then that’s just a plus.
@@bogdangaliceanu6326 Thank you so much!
@@theinvestmentabc6245 Yes I think it is! I'm in high school and I'll start going to work and then I'll put money to my broker account. I've read a couple of books on investing and will continue. Educating myself is my top prio!
I like this channel
As an example. Look at what is happening with ExxonMobil (XOM) or Boeing.
What about the problems in the cannabis industry? Almost all stocks down -70% lol. I'm researching it all and I'm picking CGC and CRON.
How do I find out what Phil Town is investing in right now?
Hey Phil,
what should you do if you've bought a company below it's fair value, the share price has risen ~ 15%, but is likely going to drop further because of an unforeseen rule 1 event?
My situation: I've bought stocks in a travel company. Their shares are now dropping due to flights being cancelled world wide for months to come, because of the coronavirus.
Should I take my 15%, then reinvest after a bigger drop?
If you've been following you should buy more of the same stock!
@@oliverdepaz8593 I agree! I'm just not sure if I should take my 15% profit, then buy more again with that profit.
Hugh Jackson
Take your profits !!
@@rokyericksonroks Don't worry I sold! So glad I did!
Anyone know what are the best sites to get the 10 year averages numbers for the big 5? MSN and Yahoo don't seem to show them. Cheers
Tesla when elon smoked a joint droped like 18-20%? and now upp 350% in less then a year
Surely the price will drop at some stage? I feel like every speculator in the west has jumped on the elon musk bandwagon
@@xHenry3110 you dont read financial reports i see, tesla will be valued at 1100 - 1500 at the end of the year and over 800 before april. Only thing that can stop it from going up now is a financial colapse of the USA or the world.
@@xHenry3110 its not a speculation if you look at numbers. I predicted it to be 540 by the end of last year and at 800 this year, there growinf in an even faster rate then most expected ( Tesla not the stock ) even the bulls could not predict it. By next year Europes factory will be launched and this year lorrys will start rolling out. Even then tesla is an ensurance company, battery, solar, selling energy to charge teslas pack for companies, roofing tile-solar company and software company selling games and software car uppgrades will make there profits sky rocket even more. You can pay 2000$ in your tesla for more horse power, example. Profit margins on everything are just amazing wont sell my stocks bellow 5000, if AI and sfd works as inteded they will be values over 7000..so its cheap now in most investors eyes just catching up after all the negative press CNBC has published last 10 years seens Ice cars own CNBC, every one thats hating on tesla being to high have been brain washed by news and cant lift a calculator and calculate them self insted of taking a guys word that has 50% of his money in GM stock. Next time buy stock cause you done reserch rather then look at CNBC. To bad you missed your chance to join the milion dollar tesla club.
Whent up 18% today cause of AI news blew there competition away, but im sure you dont keep up to date with news on tesla like all the tesla bulls. Im making a milion from this stock and it will keep growing for the next 20-30 years.
I'm saving up to buy 3 shares then I'm in 😅
waiting painfully patiently until it hits $80 area
Can you give examples from the past? Thanks!
According to DR Doom, a crisis to raval 2008 is coming. How much chance / probability ?
Oct 2018 earning for AAPL (and the dismal fourth quarter in American markets) put AAPL so on sale that people doubled their money in 2019.
,✔️
How do you figure out the moat?
I smell a bigger stock market crash than most people think at the moment. In my last video I predicted this bigger correction and bought a put and I was saying that I am not sure if it is just a correction or the beginning of a long term bear market. Now I tend to believe a big crash is about to start
Have you done a video on how to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock?
Check out his podcasts. Lots of good info
Buy the book he wrote with his daughter, Invested. It teaches you 3 different valuation methods.
All he really ever says is buy low sell high. I got that, but he never shares how to value a company correctly from its financial statements. I'm unsubscribing - I don't need to hear that I need to buy low over and over without sharing how to do that.
@@petersnow2919 Buy the Invested book. Shows you 3 different valuation methods on like page 98.
Peter Snow , check out his podcasts,starting on episode 181.
Making losses and having debts or being inspected by govermnent authorities are not events we should buy on. Right?
Hey Phil great course this weekend May 22-24 2020. What did you name your foal... :)
Obviously, covid has been wrecking a lot of lives and killing a lot of businesses. But oh my god as someone who's income stayed the same this entire pandemic, my portfolio has been having a field day! I feel bad for celebrating. This is exactly why the rich people only get richer during the recession. There is no better time to buy assets at heavily discounted prices.
You must have a twin cause a guy that looks just like you was my river guide years ago
What is a good brokerage to invest in individual stocks
kelt3211 to get started. Used robinhood.
Charles Schwab for old schoolers, Robinhood for new age investors. Trading itself is commission free if that is your concern.
I like how he doesn't mention Corona virus there's enough fear going around
🗽🗽
Pls how do I find books and take the best out of books
Hey how do you know it’s not going to go into 20-30 year depression like 1929-1935 for decades or no growth like 1935-1950. ??? How do you prevent catching falling knife. Or not much growth
Markets were flat from 1966-82. Still, Peter Lynch scored big gains by simply searching out value from 1977-90. It can be done.
I my case I buy stocks from all companies
Hi, phil, stocks are on sale now. shall I wait ?
Sitting on my ass, getting rich. My style of investing.
Phil, wonderful thesis, thanks a lot. Please help me understand one point. There are pundits in the market who advocate to identify good stock, the same way you are asking to, but they say time in the market is more important than timing the market. This seems to be conflicting with what you are advocating.
Would you please clarify your view on the concept of time in the market.
Thanks.
What do you thnik about natural gas? Wait till it hits $1.5 and buy more at 1$?
Not a bad strategy, but don’t wait too long.
Corona virus affecting Apple stock right now 🤔
Yes, but Apple stock just refuses to come down. So investment is not possible.
An Apple a day keeps corona away.
nvda collapsed on gaming chips and crypto mining chips at the same time. gaming revenues fell due to covid ending and crypto (etherym) crashed and people didnt need their chips anymore so they sold crypto chips back to gamers and nvda didnt have a market. But nvda is huge in other areas and i believe their stock will rise to intrinsic prices, at least. Maybe nvda will explode in the new electric car evelotion.
Yes, covid19
The IRBT stock has an event?
No moat
They have great big five moat metric numbers though
It could easily double but it could easily get halved. Proceed with caution.
I have people say don't invest in $1 stocks. I heard some say otherwise. I am a new investor and confused about $1 stock, but I am clear of what it is I want to do.
Believing The Outdoors Chanel don’t buy without proper investing education! You have plenty of time to invest when you learned to develop your own strategy.
Price means nothing it's same as having meat some meat costs a lot but you get 2 kg of meat it costs 10$ and other meat costs 1$ but you get only 100 g so it's value per kg like you need to calculate how many dollars you per kg same is with stocks but there are more factors
@@GodsWheat Thanks good way of putting it.
@@theinvestmentabc6245 Thank you for your advice. I've been doing a lot of research lately.
How do you value a company?
MMM
Making More Money?
New Coke was a marketing Ploy so they could introduce high fructose corn syrup into the formula and not piss off everybody directly when they reintroduce it is classic Coke or Coca-Cola classic it was exactly the same formula as new Coke
Dirty bastards, you’re right! That’s what KO management is all about. Certainly Berkshire is aware of such subterfuge?
I can't help but think about Boeing!
Just check out the 2016 stock price.
Boohoo
I bought into nvda after they crashed on 2019. Went from 288 to 126 in like a month
Yeah that’s hilarious about chipotle. People love chipotle. Lines are crazy even during the rona situation. And now look at the stock.
FB anyone? Buy at this price?
(21 year old long term investor, already have £4,000 in FB at €166 level.)
Hey bellam339. I purchased FB at just under $130 a share in December 18. At the time I thought it was worth about $200. I had a 5 year outlook (meaning I felt it's competitive advantage would last 5 years but looking further out was harder). At the time: $6.63 ttm eps, grow at 20% for 3 years = $11.46. Put a multiple of 25 on it and you get $286.50. It was under half that in December... compounds capital north of 30% annualized. It had no debt and was hated. 2x within 3 years very possible, buy (after due diligence).
Fast forward I've sold it (probably a mistake because I had plenty of cash and no other great ideas) at around $203. Why, because I let my bearish macro view cloud my judgment.
So if I was correct in my analysis, then I could see it being worth $250-260 by 2020 year end and $280-$300 by 21 year end. That is a big if. For me, it's an easy pass because there just isn't enough room between what I feel is fair value and the market price. This is mainly because my assumptions could be wrong and I question the long term durability of the moat. I do think there will be a chance to buy it but the risk/reward wasn't as good as it once was.
If you hold it, it is another story as to sell or not. If you have plenty of cash and no other great ideas, then it would probably be a mistake to sell.
SC 358 thank you so much for your reply that was very informative! Yeah I think I may also wait. I feel like if we have another bad week perhaps it’ll dip into the 190s. I agree that it’s not as discounted as certain other stocks but it’s growth is impressive. I’m a value investor and I own ABBV, PVH, MCK, FDX, Bayer , FB, ALB, OZK and glanbia. I too have a time horizon of about 3-5 years. Gives me time for my stocks to recover and grow but not so far out that the future is very unpredictable...
@@bellam339 no problem. Do you feel any of your current holdings are heavily discounted?
I only have 2 holdings of size: EAF @ $12.04, FCAU @ $12.91. Not a recommendation but I like both at today's prices.
Back to FB. As you can see TTM EPS has contracted with the dog and pony show for the regulators. In the next 3 years, there is a fair chance of a recession and companies will cut advertising to save costs. The big question is will another player come along and how much market share will they take, in what time if they do? This significantly effects the terminal value.
I spoke about EPS as a simple example but the real story is in future retained cash flows discounted back. If you have to run a DCF, it is probably too expensive.
When you pay up you have to be right.
SC 358 hi again. Well with regards to my stocks over a three to five year time horizon they are definitely undervalued. Not only that they are in great growth markets. For example ALB due to lithium in EVs and FDX due to the growth of e-commerce. I tend to buy stocks when they are at least 30% below where they should be right now, never mind excellent growth prospects. I also pick stocks which usually have less than a 30% div pay out ratio and good history of growing the dividend. Not because I really care about the div, but more because it can show good stewardship. I hate seeing companies paying out over 70% of earnings. Clearly they do not want to invest or are unable to invest. In addition it can weaken a company’s cash positing right before a recession. I would say all my companies are still undervalued but since ABBV and Bayer have both gone up 30% just since the summer when I purchased them it’s hard to want to pay so much more for the same shares. Plus even though timing the market is near impossible ( timing individual stocks can be relatively easy though), sadly when the stock market pulls back it brings back undervalued companies with it and this means I will wait a while before making large purchases again since the stock market is fully to overvalued. However that’s due mostly to stocks like Apple with huge weightings. I like Apple but I would argue all of the growth predicted over the next two years is already priced in and thus it’ll be dead money. Could be wrong u never know...
Anyway, since a pull back is likely or indeed perhaps starting to happen now, Stocks I like will mostly become even more undervalued and that’s when I’ll buy.
I’m 21 and have £52,000 which is about $66,000. Im luckily enough to have been interested and starting investing when I was 15( and I did the university army reserves in the uk which paid pretty well).
Anyway on to your holdings. So you only have two holdings? Are u heavily in cash then? I know diversification is overstated( no need to own more than ten stocks really) but 2?
So I subscribe to fast graphs which is Charting software which really helps me understand the fundamentals of the company. Run by chuck carnevale. They have a utube page which is very informative. Maybe you’d be interested. Anyway using that software I looked at both ur stocks. One of them is in electronics right? Not a sector I know much about... ur stock is a really low pe though...
And ur second stock is a car one which is another sector I stray away from since they are very cyclical and very low margins. I mean in ur car stock you’d have made no money buying 06 or 07 and holding till now. And in ford buying in the year 2000 which still have rendered a negative return even 20 years later! Also ur electronics stock has a lot of debt by the look of it. Is the car company going to make the transition into electric well? I feel like there will be a lot of consolidation and collapses of famous fuel car brands. I may be wrong. I don’t like Tesla btw totally overvalued. I own ALB for lithium. Tesla, Fiat, Gm- who ever wins they’ll be using my lithium!
Anyway I was wondering if you explain your investment thesis behind each one. Just out of curiosity. Like maybe you work for one and have insider knowledge haha? Help a brother out...
Anyway good luck investing friend
I just got out of Facebook.
As an investor who has limited capital per month to invest in the stock market, I am one of those that selfishly wish for slower Coronavirus recoveries (of the stock market) so that I have more time to load up at these historically cheap prices lol. Am I evil, or is there anyone else sharing my opinion?? lol
Investing event: A global pandemic?
I am buying nothing but RCL right now due to the Coronavirus.
Tesla is currently on sale.
*The stock will be $750 at the end of this year.*
:) U SURE?! This company is in so big bubble right now...
I would still consider it a spec stock. Until they have proven to be profitable for a number of years
Even if it's a good company it's so overpriced now that I don't find any reason to buy it before really, really important event deeping it really hard down.
lmao
Few days ago, one of the analyst said tesla will be 800 hmmmm Phil also said in podcast when he did quick calculation of apple. It will be 800 within10 years.... hmm 🤔